Fredi G. and his much-debated lineup

Timely article, DOB – http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/stop-worrying-about-jason-heywards-line-up-spot/

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bravo fredi! besides who else can boast they have a line up so strong, jason heyward hits 6th?

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The hilarious thing is that Fredi goes out of his way to mention that he is a member of SABR. As if that makes him magically understand statistics.

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@Nick – Hopefully that’s not the case. Everyone is on equal footing to you? I’m willing to wait a little longer for Dan Uggla to come around because he has a well-defined history. McLouth was abysmal last year and, while it’s only been 11 games, has been even worse so far this year.

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It’s one thing to say that you’re using Heyward to protect Uggla, but who protects Heyward? Alex Gonzalez is one of the biggest hackers in baseball, and he’s supposed to protect Heyward? We’re going to see more and more of teams pitching around Heyward all because Fredi doesn’t understand how to construct this lineup.

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I don’t want to see Heyward having to bunt a runner over. Batting 11th? Is that the same as batting 2nd?

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I would prefer to see Heyward hitting 4th. Move Nate to leadoff and bat Prado, Chipper, Heyward, Mac, Uggla, Freeman, Gonzalez — It bunches the 4 best OBP guys in the middle of the order, and moves Freeman out of the #8 hole. If Nate is still the 2010 Nate, then some other change will need to be made, but this lineup bunches the highest OBP hitters, and is still L,R,S,L,L,R,L,R,(P) — no more than 2 left or righthanded hitters in a row.

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Bobby would have already employed 12 different lineups.

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I like this lineup

you need a run producer in 6th or 7th spot and someone that can protect Uggla

If you move Heyward to 2nd… 6-9 spots in the lineup will be automatic outs

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Yeah ugman! You go show him how its done! Go get Fredi! What loser! He’s only been in baseball for 30 somethin’ years. He doesn’t know crap.

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Heyward hitting sixth is just silly. Uggla is majorly slumping but I realize the $ keep him where he is. Chipper still gets on base constantly so put someone else who gets on base around him.

Put Heyward in 2nd or 4th, move Uggla down until he gets hot and then adjust.

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DOB never responds to anyone. It’s just a waste of time to ask him a question.

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Fredi needs a legit leadoff hitter w/speed, so Prado can hit second.

Jason will ultimately be hitting third or cleanup.

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Let’s see……we have…. what 150 games left to play! …..please!….let the boys play some ball!!!!!!

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McLousy to #8…he minimizes his at bat times and gives him the opportunity to be on base for the first of the lineup….with him at the eight spot the pitcher can bunt him over if he gets on…

The point about Heyward having more at bats is huge…give him more and McLousy less….

Doesnt’ sound like rocket science to me…..

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I get that it’s important to Fredi because McLOUTH is comfortable in the 2 hole, which he has said in numerous interviews. So Fredi’s argument is that you try to make “people” happy or comfortable by placing them where they can succeed. I am down with this notion. Obviously players play better when placed where they feel the best in the lineup. HOWEVER, you don’t torpedo a lineup just to keep a guy who may nor may not hit comfortable. McLouth simply strikes out too much, and does not make enough contact/get on base enough to be a high in the order hitter for a contending team. I get that you may lose protection for Uggla or weaken the lower part your order throwing him down there, plus he may not be happpy, but at the end of the day, a lineup has to be about getting the best players up early, and then progessing downward, otherwise, you’d hit Chipper 3rd and Mac 7th to “balance” everything out. I will also say that McLouth’s inability to make consistent contact will rear it’s ugly head much more when the offense starts hitting more consistently. Don’t forget the run that DOB and everyone talks about last year started with, among other things, Heyward moving up to 2nd in the order.

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The link to the value of lineup positioning that was posted here yesterday claimed that changing things around could lead to 1 additional run over 162 games. That’s an awful fine line to be arguing. Let them get 20-25 games into the season and watch for changes based on performance.

We all appear to agree that NMis the real question mark, and that we expect the rest to perform over the course of the season. With that said, having the Manager focus on giving NM the best chance to perform sounds like a good idea. No one can say that FG isn’t giving NM the opportunity to succeed.

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Chipper should be number 2 and Heyward 3. Move Nate to 8. This team doesn’t run, cChippee handles the bat well, gets Heyward those extra abs and minimizes Nate’s ab’s.

As for leading off with best hitter, there is a school of thought on doing just that.

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I think one of the commenters on the fangraphs article hit the nail on the head, at least in regards to the vehemency with which this “issue” is debated. We, as fans, want to see Heyward hit more often. The commenter states this in terms of fantasy owners, but as Braves fans we have another, more profound, reason to object to Fredi’s line-up: we are addicted to watching Jason Heyward hit.

Every since his 450ft bomb off Carlos Zambrano in his first swing last April, we can’t get enough of watching Heyward at the plate. Similar to Michael Jordan in basketball and Michael Vick in football, when #22 makes an appearance with the bat in his hand a whole new realm of possibilities, a realm that doesn’t exist with even the best of the best ballplayer, opens up. His plate appearances are the reason you wait one more inning before flipping off the TV and going to walk the dog or leaving to beat the traffic when your team the Braves are down five runs in the night All the SABRE number lovers are hiding the real argument here, and it is one of aesthetics. Jason Heyward’s swing personifies our love of the game and Nate McLouth (God Bless him!) is Nate McLouth.

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get the he!! of Nate’s back……….

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Anyone who still thinks Heyward is batting in the wrong spot is illiterate and brain dead. Let Booby Cox’s style of managing end or you will never be happy. The reason Heyward is batting 6 is because the almighty scouting report uses logic instead of bonehead gut regurgitation. Heyward can’t hit three run homers in the no 2 spot. The Braves will always be looking for players like Adam LaRoche and Mark Texiera to spark their offense. So I guess all the weight of the team should be put on Freeman. Way to go Wren. The main problem with the Braves as forever has been the lead off spot because whoever they settle on putting there can do much more damage lower down in the order.

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Please stop w/ it’s only been 11/12 games for McLouth. This is the same McLouth we saw last year. I didn’t realize hitting .220 meant he was comfortable.

I would also argue FG doesn’t know a lot about statistics if he is using one game as a sample size to justify why McL should be in the 2 hole. Statistics are used as averages over time. I would argue the sample size is big enough for McLouth, esp considering he looks the same as last year. That is also why most people aren’t complaining about Uggla. He has a history of doing this and then bouncing back.

Even Cox gave up on this guy and after watching him manage for 20 years, that’s saying something to me. I don’t mind that this team is 5-7. What bothers me is the manager isn’t doing his best job in maximizing run production from the lineup.

One other thing – EVERY PERSON IN THE LINEUP CANNOT BE PROTECTED UNLESS YOU ARE THE YANKEES. Gonzo & Freeman are very solid for 7 & 8 hitters (I would say the same for McLouth if he were in those positions). If those positions are so flipping important, why not just put your best hitters there? It’s because there not that important. Almost no teams in MLB expect signifcant run production from those holes.

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Gut feelings don’t win World Championships, scouting reports do.

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DOB, it is getting OLD to say “last year’s team”…..did this or that. There is NO guarantee that this team gets hot like last year or that the Phillies or WC teams will fall back. Certainly the season is long and you lose 50, win 50 and what you do with the other 50 is key. But these games mean just as much as they do in September and even though we did make the playoffs last year as a result, that team was not going to win the in playoffs becaus ethey could hit or field.

You don’t panic, I agree, but this organization doesn’t seem to treat every game as important until they get in the summer but last I checked they all mean the same.

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No one said it would produce 1 extra run over a season, it’s 1 extra win, ON AVERAGE. I believe the optimal lineup would create approximately 10 additional runs/year. I can find several teams over history that would like to have that 1 win. Games in April are just as important as games in September.

But nevermind, Brett Butler just told me I was brain dead. I need to find some updated stats but last time I checked, McLouth has more ABs than Heyward with runners in scoring position. Heyward has also been on base more than McLouth.

Brett, you can keep waiting for the 3 run homer and wonder why you can’t win more games. That philosophy worked out so well for the Braves during their run.

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What’s getting old is complaints about the lineup 12 games into the season.
Only 150 more to go!

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Atticus, DOB doesn’t have time to answer you, he’s trying to come up with an idea for my game day snack. It’s going to be epic and i’ll eat it every game day if they win from here until the streak is over. I’m thinking they go on about a 5 game win streak starting tonight.

Don’t quote me on that though……cause i’m not a member of that wicked statistical club. How do I get a membership?

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I didn’t like the game last night but in reality, the braves were facing one of the best pitchers in baseball. Let’s get the series today & ATL will be fine. Although, if PHI keeps this up, the braves will be playing for the WC by the end of May.

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A line-up of nine one handed dwarfs “hitting gappers, hitting some balls out of the ballpark,” would cause other managers some difficulties, too – when most of them are hitting the ball well. The real question is, how often is that going to happen?

It may be too early to panic and start making changes just for the sake of change, but there comes a point when you have to stop thinking about what looks good on paper and focus on what works in the real world.

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Last night the 1-5 hitters got that 1 extra AB than the 6-9 hitters.

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But carlchamblee, don’t you see how comfortable McLouth is?

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I like the fact that Fredi knows what he wants and why; analysts may not agree with his reasoning but he obviously has put a lot of time, effort, and thought into it. Any guy that is a member of and uses the stats of SABR, while at the same time not loosing site of the “human aspect” , is a guy that I like having as my manager.

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Copy and Paste….easy to get him to reply to cut you down….try asking him for a good game day snack idea and NOTHING!

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It really isn’t THAT big of a deal. And to be honest, I really haven’t see a whole lot of “outrage” over the subject. There are simply many of us that would rather see the guy who is probably the best hitter on the team now, hitting 2nd instead of 6th.

Is that going to make the back of the lineup even less effective than it has been lately? Sure, but to me, it seems like a tough argument to make when you want the guy with the best OBP and SLG% hitting in front of the worst hitter.. well, maybe the 2nd worst hitter if McLouth can’t get it together.

That’s not a knock on A. Gonzalez, we all know what kind of player he is. He’s a great glove at SS, and despite looking lost at the plate most of the time, he does have considerably more pop than most SS in the league. But he sure as hell isn’t the guy you want behind the best hitter on the team. Why not force teams to put that team leading SLG and OBP to the test in the 2-hole, instead of being able to consistently avoid the issue by forcing AGon to produce…

Unless you’re one of the teams with a monster payroll, the back end of the line up is almost always going to be inept. It’s not going to be the end of the world if all of the worst bats on the team are at the end of the lineup. Last time I checked, that was usually where you wanted your worst hitters. And the chances are that either McLouth or Freeman will be able to put up decent numbers sooner rather than later, and the 6,7,8 spots won’t be the complete black hole that some are so worried about. Plus, the extra production from a top of the lineup that includes Heyward will probably more than make up for the whatever you’re losing at the back end.

Why are some people making this out to be such a crazy argument?

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nicely put, Jgainsey.

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Atlanta Nate is still Atlanta Nate. We may never see Pittsburgh Nate….Nate’s bunt should earn him another trip to the All-Star game.

The biggest problem that this Braves team has is their pitching staff. Basically, as soon as our pitching staff gives up a run to the opposing team, game over.

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The problem with the offense so far goes far beyond McLouth, Uggla is not hitting, and Mac and Chipper have been contributing mostly singles until the last two games. Freeman is just getting adjusted to ML pitching, and Prado is a much better 2 hole hitter than a leadoff man — he doesn’t walk alot and is not a base stealer. There have only been one or two innings when the team has bunched more than two hits together in the same inning.

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Braves have extended power outages every year. Very frustrating.

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Well, the big issue here is that McLouth had no where to turn last year until the Triple A batting coach got to him. Just because McLouth is in the wrong position and probably doesn’t fit in with this team anymore doesn’t mean Heyward can’t produce in the 6 spot. He is a better hitter there than no.2 The lineup will always be out of whack thanks to Booby Cox’s over-managing .It’s a tradition now to put your first baseman in the lower part of the order. That just tells the rest of teams that you are vulnerable and they can pitch around your ridiculous line up. The line up argument will go on all season long because FG is a BC protégé and everyone is used to BC. So, if FG wants to think outside the box and use a scouting report than more power to him.

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People can argue about lineups all day long, but what it boils down to is that only a couple of guys are hitting at all. Any lineup you run out there is going to look like crap right now. Give Freddie a break for now. Don’t worry, when Uggla heats up, he will carry the team like Glaus did last year. Dude is streaky, but he will hit 10 homers in a month, and the rest of the team will feed off of that. Let’s just hope this happens before we’re 10 games out of 1st place.

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Heyward should be hitting third. This is only an issue because nobody.is willing to make chipped hit second

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Man, do I wish Yunel Escobar was around. Alas, Bobby couldn’t handle him and we now have a hole for shortstop in the batting order.

Just think, if he were around batting second, the McClouth thing wouldn’t be an issue. McClouth would be protecting Freddie Freeman in the 8 hole and have the ability to steal bases while the pitcher hit to get in scoring position creating RISP opportunities for Prado.

There’s a reason the Braves only one world series, and Cox’s ability to handle players is high on the list. It certainly is the source of our current problem.

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Jason Heyward batting numbers 2010:

Batting #2 .281 .393 .430 .823

Batting #6 .359 .469 .846 1.315

I appreciate the balance Freddi’s bringing, and it’s much better than the musical chairs line-up we played last year where no one could find any rhythm or consistency

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The Braves season has been pretty ugla so far.
How many more games before Chipper breaks Cal’s streak?
Ozzie Guillen would go Meatloaf on the Braves hitters, if he were the manager.
Do the Braves really need closers?

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I went a little Meatloaf last night…

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If escobar makes the all-star team this year, we’ll have traded two all-star SS since Furcal with nothing to show for it

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Nothing to worry about, we’re the Braves. We’ll explode for 13 runs to make it all feel great tonight.

Our main concern should then be Friday’s game vs the Mets in which we’ll proceed to go hitless.

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okay, b mac and uggla (once he gets going) are not going to homer every time they walk up, so move heyward to 2nd in the lineup, then who is going to hit those runs in come june-july? freeman?? gonzo?? i’d rather have heyward for now. if moved anywhere it should be third.

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As long as Chipper is a player on this team, he’ll be hitting #3, unless he asks to be moved.

Give the lineup a chance. All of the hitters have been sketchy so far, it’s only been 12 games.

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So stubborn. The Pujols and Bonds comment is irrelevant. Those guys don’t/didn’t hit 6th.

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“Anyone who still thinks Heyward is batting in the wrong spot is illiterate and brain dead. Let Booby Cox’s style of managing end or you will never be happy. The reason Heyward is batting 6 is because the almighty scouting report uses logic instead of bonehead gut regurgitation. Heyward can’t hit three run homers in the no 2 spot.”

So anyone who thinks it’s a choice between either 2nd or 6th and nowhere else in the lineup must be only slightly better than brain dead. The problem here is that this debate is based on 2 outcomes that are both the wrong answer. Heyward is clearly a #3 or #4 hitter. The underlying problem in all of this is that Chipper is not going to be moved in the order to allow Heyward to hit 3rd where he should be.

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talking about scouting. yes, the braves do not emphasize on scouting and watching video on opposing hitters. hitting mechanics yes, but cox and JS always used the method of using the same approach for any opposing hitter.

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Give him 8 more games to give him the benefit of
any doubt. I am not a McLouth fan. I think this year
will be a continuation of last year. His speed does him
no good if he can’t get on base. I hope I am wrong.

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We shouldn’t have AG or Escobar………we should have Elvis Andrus but that’s water under the bridge.

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Farnsworthy……you just jinxed it…..Mets are gonna roll us now!

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Joe, here’s the issue with your comment – Uggla had a bad two weeks. McLouth has had a bad year plus. This is the same song and dance we’ve seen since last season.

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OK, here’s my lineup:
1. Prado, LF
2. Chipper, 3b
3. Heyward, RF
4. Uggla, 2b
5. McCann, C
6. Gonzo, SS
7. Freeman, 1B
8. McClouth, CF

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Prado
Larry
Heyward
Uggla
McCann
Gonzo
Freeman
McOut
Pitcher

IMHO, you live and die with your top 5-7 players. Whatever McOut gives us is a plus over last year. Uggla should be planted in the 4 spot to keep consistency 1-4 because B-Mac will sit 30 games because you have to either sit your catcher or kill your catcher. Gonzo is an underrated RBI producer so give him more chances with the BEST OBP players in the front 5. Freeman should be in the 6 hole ALL year.

My opinion means as much as the rest of us here on this Blog but hey….we all have opinions right?

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The main problem is the Braves have no leadoff hitter. Prado should be hitting second and leave Heyward in the sixth hole. Trade for a leadoff hitter/centerfielder.

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go dawgs you are right nate onlystuckouttwo times last night and he didnt hit into any double plays- much better mclouth batting second would not be an issue if we actually had a center fielder that could hit

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whatofit, the 2010 numbers for Heyward are misleading. He only batted 6th 39 times, if you remember that was beginning of season when he came out smoking. He batted 10 times as much (388 abs) batting second and put up solid #s. He was moved up precisely because he showed that he could handle it. And i believe if not for the thumb injury his #s would have been stronger.

Besides if you wanna go by last year, how on earth do you explain Mclouth batting 2nd?

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No, cajunstorm….the blog police will soon ridicule you and demand you stop posting….

I like your argument myself….ugly can’t do much worse hitting 4th….not like Mclard is doing a whole lot there himself….and McOut should be hitting 9th actually since most pitchers hit for better average than him…

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I can’t imagine that McDip will stay hitting 2 for more than a couple of weeks. What would be the scenario that he would stay there? You know he isn’t going to bring that avg up so any other scenario? He can bunt really well? I just don’t see it. Yes it’s early but these are the games that will cost come this fall.

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BBall Fan…

Minor, McOut (eat half of salary), and a bullpen arm for Ellsbury. Solves our leadoff/cf problem and BoSox get a temp in CF and gets a poyential 5th starter and needed bull pen help. The way they are struggling…that are probably open to a move.

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Last year when Bobby Cox batted Heyward second, lots of people wanted him lower in the order. Now Fredi is batting him lower and people still aren’t satisfied. Maybe we all should just take a breath, wait until the season is 25 to 30 games in and see what is happpening with the lineup. I bet that Fredi will make adjustments accordingly.

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There is no possible way to justify putting your best hitter 6th. You just can’t do it. Every article that addresses that issue makes the same point — “It’s only worth maybe 4 runs over the course of the season, so it’s not that big of a deal.” Not one article has been written that says the current lineup actually helps the team score more runs (because it doesn’t); they all just repeat that it doesn’t actually cost us as many runs as we make it sound like it does with all the complaining.

When someone can prove that it is actually going to help us score more runs to place our best hitter 6th (which won’t happen based on all the available data and statistics), then I’ll stop complaining. Until then, there’s no way to justify what we’re doing. It’s inane.

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yes, mcout had a good game tues nite…and yes, clearly no one was getting a hit last nite against cy young himself….that pitiful thing FF hit was just blind luck or we probably would’ve finished up hitless….

so that said, mcout HAS looked better so far than all of last year, but we’ve got to have more than .220 out of him….period. would love to see a 3-4 or 4-4 game out of him….

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well maybe after we play more than 3 series we can get more of a feel on what he’s going to do. Bravos have faced some pretty tough pitching so far. Josh Johnson pitched lightsout last night.

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Well Dave, do you prefer we all just shut up and go read something else every day? Why the “hate” on DAM? Good grief. You do such a great job but I swear, you’re at least as sensitive as I am….and that’s not a good thing probably…lol…i work and keep up with this blog some during the day now and have fun doing so….but don’t crush the readers for beating a dead horse…

Heyward is an obvious 4 hitter. Not a 2 and not a 6. That’s my take and i’m not overly concerned with what FG thinks about it. If he thinks 6, then 6 it is and we’ll keep our fingers crossed.

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even if nate rebounds, he still won’t be a fit for the #2 spot and certainly wont be more deserving of a greater number of at-bats than heyward. nate’s more of an rbi guy than a table setter anyways. heyward is both and therefore should be driving in runs AND setting the table. THATS what makes a lineup efficient. if you want rbi’s there has to be men on base. end of story. so, even if nate turns it around, fredi’s only going to be in a position where the team is better off demoting nate. what’s that going to do for his confidence? he does everything asked of him and still gets bumped down 4 spots in the order. not exactly thinking ahead, fredi.

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Glad to see we have a manager willing to stand his ground. He may be right or may end up being proved wrong but its his team and he wants to earn the respect of his players. McLouth is NOT this teams problem right now. He is simply a part of the machine that is not performing up to its potential. As the season goes on and if McLouth doesn’t starting getting that OBS up then I’m sure Fredi will make a move but its just to early for that right now. If you keep changing things then guys can’t get comfortable or it takes much longer for them to get comfortable.

I like Heyward and think he is really a number 3 hitter but that spot is currently being filled with a HOF 3rd baseman. Heyward is young and will have his chances but the big picture for this season is to determine “IF” McLouth can turn his career around. If not the Braves need to know that by the Allstar break so they can make a move for another hitter. If he can then they can focus on some other need like right handed hitter off bench or bullpen support. McLouths best chance of success is hitting 2nd and I agree with Fredi, for now.

Go Braves!

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jfreak is being secretly paid by DOB to say things like that…it’s a conspiracy started by frank wren…

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Ha ha. Anybody can be a MLB manager. All you have to do is fill out the line-up card.

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bob leblaw you are so dead on.– if i had a nickel for every time ive heard lets give mclousy some more time over the last year and a half i’d have millions— uggla does not have a year and a half of being bad, just the opposite but to keeep saying mclouth will turn it around, weve been riding that horse too long– 20 more games that’s it if he is stillbatting 200– batted 190 last year– then it is time for a change- shafer, and constanza still over 300 at triple a– or trade for a center fileder that can hit teams are looking for pitching my god we have 8 projected starters by august if medlen can come back, teheran shows he belongs– and minor improves– then you have delegado and viziciano in the wings– you cannot use ten starters for the future- we we need a center fielder that can hit.

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The next pitcher we may be tipping our hat to: Ricky Nolasco. Beachy had better hold them to 2 runs or less.

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Think I’m okay with the Braves manager setting the line-up. He seems to have figured out what somewhat else on this blog pointed out – moving McClouth to 6th gives you a guy trying to straighten out his career hitting in front of a very undisciplined hitter followed by a rookie (followed, of course, by the pitcher). Let’s wait another twelves games before we go into panic mode.

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Fredi G. is still living in that same old school world that Bobby Cox lived in for so long that failed to win him anything of significance. Fredi will waste away talent trying to turn a career below average hitter into an all-star by batting him in front of Chipper and McCann. Gonzalez will eventually get what he deserves (a pink slip) while the team suffers (with losses and lack of run production) as a result. If you don’t play your best players (Jason Heyward) the most, you deserve to get fired no matter what the reasoning/justification.

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It’s still early. Seems everything negative about the Braves offense somehow revolves around McLouth. He’ll come around. I’m sure if the Braves would have gotten no-hit last night, it would somehow be Nate’s fault even though everyone else would have went 0-fer. The Braves TEAM is not hitting well…yep, TEAM!

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I would be a superior manager as far as actual managing goes.

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brandon you are right not all on mclouth the whole team is not hitting- but mclouth has not been hitting since he became a brave, i have faith that the team will turn it around, but what gives you faith that mclouth after a year and a ahlf as a brave can or will?

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Kentavo

April 14th, 2011
2:13 pm
OK, here’s my lineup:
1. Prado, LF
2. Chipper, 3b
3. Heyward, RF
4. Uggla, 2b
5. McCann, C
6. Gonzo, SS
7. Freeman, 1B
8. McClouth, CF

Ding, Ding Ding. We have a winner. I might switch McClouth and Freeman at this point though. The easiest solution is moving Chipper to the two hole and Heyward to 3, but it is not going to happen. Chipper would be an unbelievable 2 hitter at this point. I like Uggla at 4 and McCann at 5 because as another poster said it creates consistency when McCann sits out. Plus, I feel like McCann has been more productive at the 5 spot throughout his career.

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Hard to know what to do here. With the Pirates, McClouth was basically a .250 hitter, but walked about 10% of the time, so his OBP was about .350. Last year with the Braves he only hit .190 playing half-time, which is not good. He still walked about ten percent of the time, but that can’t overcome hitting below the Mendoza line.
I do hope Fredi Gonzalez doesn’t have that Bobby Cox mindset where he picks a lineup and then doesn’t change it WAY past the time it’s clearly not working. Cox had Andruw Jones batting leadoff for a full half season one year, and Jones was about as much of a leadoff hitter as he was a chickadee.

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I think I would settle for MCSUCK getting cut at this point.
I feel the lineup needs tweaking but I guess Uggla should wake up at some point.

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Uggla’s hitting .152…should we hit him 8th??? Just wondering…

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DOB — yep, pretty much, and since I have your permission now, I think I will go right ahead. Thanks.

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Well, now we know why most of you are posting on a blag instead of managing a team.

There aren’t even 15 games in the books yet and you whiz kids are gripin’ your heads off. Half of you probably never even bothered to go through everyone’s hits and outs and chart how many were “well hit, but rightatem” — which isn’t surprising, it’s a lot easier to just gripe because we’re not 11-3.

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you guys realize that mclouth has a better avg. than freeman and uggla. mclouth also has a higher OBP than prado, alex, freeman and uggla. lastly, if nate keeps doing what he did tuesday night (1-3 2B, advance prado to 3B(who scored on chipper’s SF)) then i am fine with him hitting second.

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“Yeah,” he said. “When you make out the lineup, the lineup is a function of the entire lineup – eight guys, not just one guy. Statisticians, numbers crunchers and my SABR [Society for American Baseball Research] people – I’m a member – they shoot holes in that stuff. But you’re dealing with humans in the way the lineup is constructed.”

How does the fact that he’s dealing with humans negate the fact that Heyward is a better on-base guy than all but maybe one of his teammates, that he is as good a slugger as all but maybe one or two of his teammates and that hitting him sixth versus second could cost him over 50 plate appearances?

“Yeah, you put this guy in the No. 2 hole, but what are you going to do to the 6-hole? What are you going to do to [No. 5 hitter Dan] Uggla when he’s hitting good?”

What’s wrong with Uggla staying where he is an McLouth hitting sixth? I’m not sure what he’s implying here. What are you doing to the number 2-hole? The number two hitter comes up a lot more often and ahead of better hitters than the number six hitter. So why would you put one of your four weakest hitters in the number two spot just so that you have a good hitter behind your number five hitter?

“Like the situation [Tuesday], when McLouth bunts [Martin] Prado over to third,” he said. “Now are you are going to play the infield in? Are you going to pitch to Chipper or pitch to [No. 4 hitter Brian] McCann? That kind of stuff.”

What about the possibility in that situation of having Prado on second with no outs and Heyward, Chipper, McCann and Uggla due up?

“When everybody doing things like we did yesterday, hitting gappers, hitting some balls out of the ballpark, it makes [the lineup] good.”

Yes, when everyone gets a lot of extra-base hits, that’s a good thing. Over the course of the season, hitting one of your best hitters, if not your best, higher than sixth would lead to more extra-base hits.

“I think the way the lineup is constructed is more important,” he said, before applying the additional-plate-appearances reasoning to a rhetorical question to reporters: “Then why don’t we lead off [Albert] Pujols? Or [Barry] Bonds? Lead ‘em off.”

The additional plate appearances aren’t the only consideration. That’s just one piece. There is also giving your best hitter a chance to hit with a runner on base in the first inning and about putting your best or second-best on-base guy in a spot where he can be both a table-setter and have a shot at a fair number of chances to advance the leadoff hitter (and possibly hitters at the bottom of the order who get on base) in addition to the extra plate appearances. One reason (namely additional plate appearances) alone is not enough to hit Heyward higher in the order. But that one reason combined with others is reason enough.

“Believe me,” Gonzalez said, “when a guy’s going good in a certain spot — he likes it; he’s comfortable – his whole game is [going well], let ‘em play. Let ‘em do it….

“Everybody [in the lineup] has got a function.”

It doesn’t seem very likely at all that McLouth’s successful Spring was due to him hitting second. He’s facing major league pitchers. They are going to throw whatever it takes to get a hitter out, no matter where he’s hitting. In fact, if anything, I would guess that pitchers are tougher on number two hitters because they know they need to get an out before the middle of the order comes up. Plus there is the fact that McLouth’s performance in the 6th and 7th spots in the order are better than his overall career performance. I don’t see any reason to believe McLouth has to hit second in order to get “going well.” If there were an inferior hitter who seems to have a need to hit third in order to get going well, would he consider moving Chipper from third? I doubt it. So why move Heyward for an inferior hitter?

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At the end of the story, the fact is, that Fredi G. is the manager and all you belly-achers are not.
You all have the right to bitch, complain, hate, and say what you would do, or what should be done.
But, it really doesn’t mattter what your opinion is, because no one really gives a fudge, other than yourself or maybe some of your pi$$ing and moaning brothers and sisters.

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DOB, as always, I apologize if this has been answered before… BUT

I read what Gonzalez said about the “human being” aspect of the lineup. I understand that Freddie thinks that mentally, McClouth could benefit from seeing more fastballs that the no. 2 hitter sees with Chipper protecting (allegedly, I mean, because with all these articles amy wittle bwain I’ze just don’t know what to thinks anymore!!!… sorry). I’m sure it’s also a vote-of-confidence type of thing to say “we trust you enough to put you in the 2 hole”. Ok, I get that, I guess. But I’m curious about the other side of that “human” thing.

What does Heyward think about it? Does he care? Back when I was a 21 year old baseball phenom (I wasn’t) I sure LOVED seeing a bunch of fastballs, given that I was still developing, still learning, etc. Is he too talented for it to matter?

I guess to me, it seems like while McClouth could indeed benefit from the spot, the Braves AND Heyward could benefit from Heyward hitting second. Besides, SABRmetrics can’t account for things like Heyward having a real knack for coming through in late-inning, tied ballgames… or CAN it?

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Why do my comments need moderating ? All the stuff you let go on these blogs and my normal comments need moderating ?

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“When you make out the lineup, the lineup is a function of the entire lineup – eight guys, not just one guy.”

What does that even mean? Can anyone make any sense of that statement.

As to the folks who have suggested moving Chipper to 2nd and Heyward to 3rd, that would be the proper lineup and the one that would generate the most runs while also forcing opposing managers to use more of the bullpen later in games to get righty-righty/lefty-lefty matchups.

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Unbelievable. The answer is so simple. Bat Nate leadoff. Bat Prado second. Keep Chipper third. Bat Heyward fourth.
I hate when people make such a huge deal out of the 4 hole. Just because you think of a Serranno when you think of a “clean up guy” doesn’t mean it has to be a prototypical “clean up guy”
If you think about that lineup with Nate getting on, opening more holes for THE prototypical 2 hole hitter, Prado, and stealing some bags from time to time, its pretty interesting. Just because Prado is getting on out of the leadoff role doesn’t mean thats the best spot for him. Just because Uggla will probably lead our team in HRs this year, doesn’t mean he has to bat 4th either. Everyone has their own opinion on this topic- and I mean everyone- but if you know anything about your players, you could see why this lineup would be at least better than the current one.
1. Nate
2. Prado
3. Chipper
4. Heyward
5. Uggla
6. Mac
7. Freeman
8. Gonzo

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Aaaarrrrrgggghhhh! The old legit lead-off hitter with speed argument rears its head. A leadoff hitter needs to get on base.

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I don’t like to see McLouth bat period.

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David O’Brien…. did you ever find out Kimbrel’s closer music?

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I propose this lineup only because I know that Fredi will NEVER move Chipper from the 3 hole. Chipper is still a great hitter, but on this team at this stage of his career, he shouldn’t bat 3rd.

If I knew Fredi had the balls to make such a bold move in his first year, I would actually prefer to see this lineup:

1. Prado
2. Chipper
3. Heyward
4. Uggla
5. Mac
6. Freeman
7. Gonzo
8. Nate

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coonhound: “Dennis, the 4th place hitter needs to be the power hitter. Your goal is 1 thru 3 to get on and 4th hitter deliver a grand slam.”
Coon, how many times does that happen? Ill take my power hitter (especially if he has a reasonably high BA) in the 3rd slot, same as Cards and Pujols.

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coonhound-
Yea cuz if you have 3 guys who get on base, you’re almost guaranteed a grand slam. Some people.

If more fans would actually COME TO SOME GAMES instead of sitting home keybanging all night, they would actually know something about baseball. Its no wonder were so frequently made fun of by other cities with good fan bases. I understand New York, Boston and Philly, but whats St. Louis got that we don’t? In packed cities such as NY and Boston, its easy for ppl to get to the stadium where as in Atlanta its more rural. In turn making it more difficult to go see a game on a regular basis. But the same goes for St. Louis and they have one of the strongest fan bases in the game. I would never stray from the Braves so don’t even start with the whole “go be a card fan then”, I would just like to see Atlanta embrace a team who’s actually trying to win a championship. 13,000 people on ANY day is pathetic.

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Glove51 and coonhound-
If you intend on making such terrible suggestions, then find a little league team to follow and blog about them.

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Hey Fredi, I’ve got a suggestion. Why not reverse the entire batting order and see what happens? Are you aware that “insanity is doing the same thing over and over, and expecting different results”. Or, “the thinking that got us here is different than the thinking that will get us out of here”. Just a suggestion.

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Hey Joshua,

the fact that Chipper won’t bat 2nd in the lineup doesn’t bother me nearly as much as the IGNORANCE of someone like you who doesn’t seem to understand the VALUE of having a guy with a tremendously high on base percentage bat INFRONT of your 3rd and 4th hitters in a lineup.

While Chipper can still drive in runs from the 3 hole with singles, it’s much more productive to have the power of Jason Heyward hitting 3rd…and while McLouth can be “at best serviceable on base percentage wise” he isn’t as good as Chipper is at getting on base.

The whole point is Fredi G. isn’t maximizing his player’s usefulness in his LINEUP.

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1. Heyward
2. Prado
3. Chipper
4. McCann
5. Uggla
6. McLouth
7. Gonzalez
8. Freeman

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Batting McLouth lead-off is THE SINGLE-MOST idiotic idea posted in this entire thread.

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Dave what would be your lineup. You asked Freddi the question now I’m asking you how would you construct the lineup. I really have no problem with Heyward batting 6th, having a .280ba 100/100rbi/r with 30HR’s out of the 6th spot doesn’t bother me. On top of that he gives Uggla good protection and has the patients/eye to not chase pitches if he’s pitched around. If the lineup needs to be changed I would go with 1. Prado 2. Chipper-great OBP/BA/can hit to all fields(great bat control) 3. Heyward-hard to argue he’s not the best hitter in the lineup 4. McCann 5. Uggla 6. Freeman-he won’t see any pitches hitting 8th(kinda tough on a rookie) 7. Gonzalez 8. McClouth

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Geez DOB excuse everyone for venting and giving their opinion on a BLOG for gosh sakes!

I’m sorry you don’t just report to us what Fredi says and we’re all baby birds opening our mouths to receive the regurgitation.

And why use the old lame blogument that since the manager doesn’t care what we think it means we should just shut up. That’s weak and I must say quite haughty of you.

Did you think you were gonna post what Fredi said about Heyward batting 6th and there was gonna be a universal “oh yeah that makes sense, brilliant”?

Truth is baseball people not just Braves fans have questioned it. And as far as that 4 runs a year hooey I don’t buy it. You can’t quantify the effect of a dynamic offensive player like Heyward on a study alone. You actually think with Heyward getting 70 more PAs and Mclouth 70 less PAs wouldn’t matter much? Please

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.

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Nate has bunted once. He has zero stolen bases. He did get picked off of first base however.

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““Like the situation [Tuesday], when McLouth bunts [Martin] Prado over to third,” he said. “Now are you are going to play the infield in? Are you going to pitch to Chipper or pitch to [No. 4 hitter Brian] McCann? That kind of stuff.” Fredi Gonzalez

Or…. you could just have Heyward try and drive the ball to the right side, which would net the same result. Or (GASP!) might actually result in a base hit, or maybe even an extra base-hit, rather than giving up an out.

12 games in, and I’m growing tired of Fredi’s logic on some things. Ultimately, actions speak louder than words. He can say all day that he’s not moving Heyward up, but if does it in the next few weeks, we’ll all know that he was thinking the same thing we were and just waiting for the right time to do it.

Unfortunately, we appear to have a manager that didn’t recognize that OPENING DAY wasn’t soon enough to have Heyward in either the 2, 3 or 4 spot of the lineup.

It’s OK though. As long as Chipper gets to face Choate 15-20 more times this year, his HR total will be alright.

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DOB, perhaps I’ve asked you this before. But I’ll ask it again…. flat out.

You obviously are close to the team, but ultimately are not a “Braves fan”. But clearly somebody with inside knowledge of many things and are likely the only non coach, player to have literally “lived” with the club since February.

Where would YOU bat Heyward if you were in charge of the lineup card? Same 8 guys. Nothing else changes. Assuming everybody is healthy and erasing the recent memory of the first 12 games. Throw the results out the door.

If you were the Braves manager, upon leaving spring training, where would Heyward hit in your lineup?

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Asking DOB that might be akin to asking a political reporter who he would vote for. I can see where he might dodge that question N8.

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One stolen base.

ONE. which is already ranked dead freaking last in the Majors. This one stat alone tells me everything I need to know about the mentality of our new manager.

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Someone posted earlier that we are only 12 games into the season….totally true that = about 1\16 of the season…..well what happens when it’s 22 games or 32 games deep….will everyone including Fredi still be comfortable with where they are batting & the pitches they are seeing then…..just a thought Braves fans…..not venting it was just a thought!

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That’s right.

We are ranked as follows:

26th in walks.

26th in batting average.

29th in OBP

29th in RBI

30 in stolen bases.

But no, Fredi is gonna keep his line up intact. Good luck is all I have to say.

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Meant to add that’s on GM for keeping him but on the mgr for putting him 2nd. A real organization-wide effort. At least they helping Nate fund his Dobie Gillis hair dye look

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I know Braves fans don’t like this guy……Nyjer Morgan, I said all off season this guy would make splash this year….that is the kinda of infusion the Braves need in our lineup….maybe we could do without his character….we need a jumpstart at the top of the batting order nuff said!

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FREDI YOU ARE ONE STUPID DUMB@$$ COACH,WHY IS NATE EVEN IN THE GAME?

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as of right now…… McLouth’s OBP (304) than Prado’s (291).

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Why is he talking about Mcdoodle, who gives a damn what he needs. Heyward is one of the faces of the franchise, along with Bryan Mcann, who is clearly more deserving and capable of helping the team with those atbats. Terrible stragety and lineup, worst explanation.

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Fredi’s a smart guy, and it’s cool that he’s a “feel” guy rather than one who goes by the book all the time. I like him a lot. I hope it works out for him.

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Lineups are over-rated.

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Always next year.

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you dont take him out unless he is hurt again. watch and see

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Hang tonight’s loss on Beachy. Gives up a three spot, we get him the lead, he immediately gives it away. Like every other Brave pitcher he can’t bunt. Reminds me eerily of Chuck James.

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Jason is not a #3 hitter, never will be. He is not disciplined enough to hit there. If you bat him after Mac, you have 2 lefties back to back. I think the line up will come around. Give Fredi a chance and quit being so critical. After the all star break – if things are still the same – then criticize. Fredi should know who needs to be where in the line up by that time.

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For those who don’t know who the Atlanta Negro League team they were called ***The Atlanta Blackcrackers****…..found it kinda eerie when I so that handle being used on this post…..my greatgrandad had an old poster that was in pretty bad shape.

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DDDY SOB’s——Different Day, Different Year, Same Old Braves !!!!

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If we don’t move one of our two young closers for a legit CF who can hit, then we’ll be out of it in May. Nice job Wren. If you were in charge of all the deserts, pretty soon we’d have a shortage of sand!!!

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The same guys complaining now had Chipper needing to retire, Heyward a sophomore bust,and Hanson as a head case. They need to admit they do not know diddly about baseball or start predicting the weather.

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Man…are you guys in for a long Fredi summer. Go Fish!

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[...] Dave O’Brien of the AJC has an extended discussion of the problem today. The upshot: Fredi Gonzalez likes balance and lefty-righty stuff and, hey, you can’t let opposing teams pitch around Dan Uggla!  Dan “.160/.192/.360″ Uggla.  Heaven forfend. He’s sticking with Heyward in the six-hole. At this point it wouldn’t shock me if he was doing it simply so that no one can say he caved to the pressure that I and other complainers are applying. [...]

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