5:46 pm January 25, 2011, by Carroll Rogers
January 31st, 201112:18 pm
I do like OBP because a lead off walk is the same is a hit. That said high OBPs should show up in high run scored totals. I also like slugging because a high slugging percentage should drive in a bunch of people from 1B.
So, in a roundabout way, you are saying you like OPS. Since .800 OPS is generally considered pretty decent, I think it’ll be really difficult to find a .300/30/100 guy with a sub .800 OPS. Heck even .850 OPS.
I looked up that number over the last 10 years on B-R. Lowest OPS was .861.
January 31st, 201112:19 pm
Glord – Where in Vermont? I’m in Randolph the past ten years.
January 31st, 201112:21 pm
Since 1900 the lowest OPS for such a season is .849.
Lowest OPS+ is 112. Not too shabby, I guess.
January 31st, 201112:29 pm
N8(and others), I loved the chipper extension then and I love it now. The braves were in a similar situation then that the cardinals are in now. Are you going to let your franchise player walk? It’s about the braves brand at that point, and the extension was totally the right move.
I do think chipper should be batting 2nd, though.
January 31st, 201112:35 pm
Snotboogie – yup I do think OPS has value. All these stats play into each other and prove a lot of the same things. To me OPS shows that not only are you driving the ball well but you are also taking your walks to help the team.
January 31st, 201112:38 pm
Glord1, you say you want a high OBP to translate into high runs scored? How exactly is that reflective of the guy with the high OBP? The rest of his team might suck. If you are thinking it shows how much the guy plays, there is a better stat for that, called “games played” or probably better, check “plate appearances”.
Glord1, Braves thirdbasemen had the 4th-best OPS in the NL in 2010. That’s largely because of Chipper. Yes, your points about him not playing as much as he used to are valid. But he still had 381 plate appearances last year. It’s not 600 plate appearances but that’s enough to greatly influence the team’s scoring.
ncscoots and Lew, look at Francoeur. In ‘06 and ‘07 he posted pretty respectable Triple Crown stats. You want that kind of player on your team, right? One problem: He was no good in ‘06 and he was an average hitter in ‘07 (average for a major league hitter and below average for a major league corner-outfielder). Why? Mostly because he was an out machine with a rather mediocre slugging for a corner-outfielder in the majors.
Batting average is a worthwhile stat but the problem is it only tells a piece of the story. It’s not that black and white. Stats have different degrees of usefulness as far as getting to a player’s true value and performance level. Batting average is better than, say, RBI total but it’s not as good as on-base and slugging.
So, again, the Triple Crown stats for the most part are looking at the game as a contest in artistry and not a sport or a game in which you are trying to outscore the other team. If you primarily look at Triple Crown stats you aren’t starting from the standpoint of what an individual does to help his team score runs. You are looking at what he does that seems impressive, largely because directly or indirectly tradition has told you to be impressed with these things.
January 31st, 201112:41 pm
Lew- I understand the anti-trust aspect of this but keep in mind the fans. Like yours truly. If I know that Mark Cuban wants to buy the Mets and he’s made the best offer than Bud better have a very compelling reason for not allowing it. Not just “He doesn’t meet the criteria of the sheep we prefer to have as partners.”
He certainly can’t say that he’s afraid Cuban will begin to spend wildly and throw everything off kilter. I mean, not with what’s been going on 8 miles away from the Mets the last 20 years.
I think you’re 100% right about what Bud and the rest of that greedy bunch want but Cuban is not one to take kiss off lightly. What Bud does have going for him is that Wilpon is a friend to him and a loyal soldier. He probably won’t even entertain a meeting with Cuban if Selig doesn’t bless it. But if he sells a controlling interest in the team quietly without Cuban getting a sniff at it – watch out.
January 31st, 201112:43 pm
I have to admit, since the batting title and since the extension was signed, Chipper’s line has been ugly (by Chipper’s standard).
It seems like he started off well, but went into a (roughly) one and a half year funk.
Is it age? Is it a regression to the mean (since the two years prior to the extension were above average production for Chipper)?
I’m willing to wait and see, especially since Chipper’s production before the injury was moving back towards his average production.
I think, if you look at 2nd half of 2009 and first half of 2010, Chipper’s production was prolly Feliz-like. Book-ended around that were more typically Chipper production.
On the contract … Chipper brings in revenue streams whether he is playing or not. I don’t think the Braves are losing money on Chipper. And, even if his production is down from his prime numbers, he is still one of the better players on the team.
In summary …
money issues = Chipper is a positive.
performance issues = Chipper is a positive.
January 31st, 201112:52 pm
“I have to agree that I have never seen a mediocre baseball player consistently go .300 30 100″
Glord1, I think it’s a lot like pitcher wins. It’s difficult for a pitcher to have a high win total and not be a good pitcher and it’s difficult for a pitcher to have a low win total and not be bad. But it’s not impossible. And if one is over-reliant on wins, you are bound to get fooled. Wins and RBI are okay if that’s all you’ve got to go on (you don’t have much choice). But they are among the last thing to look at and some teams build winners without looking at such things at all.
Theo Epstein: “And you guys can talk about RBI if you want. We ignore them in the front office. … If you want to talk about RBI at all, talk about them as a percentage of opportunity, but it simply is not a way that we use to evaluate offensive players.”
Theo’s Red Sox (2003-present) have scored more runs than every team in the majors except the Yankees.
If a team tries to primarily build a great “Triple Crown” team, it guarantees them nothing. Again, it’s like building a pitching staff based on wins. Usually it’s going to be okay but you run the risk of being fooled.
January 31st, 201112:56 pm
Glord1, you say you want a high OBP to translate into high runs scored? How exactly is that reflective of the guy with the high OBP? The rest of his team might suck.
Just to support this: going back to the B-R thing from earlier – the lowest “runs scored” by a player with .300/30/100 is 67. So with those numbers and OPS+ of 112 or more, it is very possible to score very few runs – 8 guys scored 80 or less. So it doesnt really correlate.
abwright, Chipper has regressed probably because of age. But to say he’s been “ugly”…?
He was the 3rd or 4th best hitter on the team in 2010 and not the best hitter on the team.
January 31st, 20111:03 pm
And anyone who truly believes that someone who hits .300, 30, 100 is anything other than a good player? Seriously?
Yes, but using the triple crown stats to discuss a player leaves ever so many hairs unsplit.
January 31st, 20111:09 pm
leaves ever so many hairs unsplit.
Ahh, you can probably find those splits at baseball-reference, I’ll betcha. Might have to dig for them…
T for Texas
If you want to talk about RBI at all, talk about them as a percentage of opportunity
I’d have to go with Theo on this one. Give me Batting Avg. w/ RISP over total RBI as a way of evalutating a player every time. (and yes, there are obvious exceptions where this doesn’t work, sample size being very important, as well as slugging w/ RISP, etc.)
Not that I am trying to drum up that “clutch” conversation again. LOL. But isn’t Batting Avg w/ RISP the all-purpose clutch stat? Wouldn’t you just have to compare that number to a hitters overall Batting Avg to know if they can turn it up a notch when the chips are down?
Chipper’s extension is worth it in my estimation if it keeps me from ever having to see him in a Mets or Phillies uniform. Dale Murphy and Tom Glavine can be my examples.
The one thing that will make Chipper retire voluntarily is if he doesn’t hit for average and his lifetime BA is in danger of going below .300. I believe that is his ticket into the HOF.
An article at Fangraphs about the Braves’ ability to avoid free agency:
January 31st, 20111:12 pm
Not to keep picking on Francoeur but he is kind of the poster child for the “Triple Crown” way of thinking about the game.
Going into the 2008 season, I’m sure there were quite a few fans and probably even some GM’s and front office personnel would have loved a team full of Francoeur-type hitters. At that point he had a .280 career batting average with 26 homers and 104 RBI per 162 games. But the more astute recognized a .319 career on-base and the fact that he never walked (32 per 162 games). Sure, there was still some promise as his slugging was impressive but even if he increased his walk total by say 20 or 30 per 162 games, it would still be tough for him to get on base/avoid outs enough to be an above-average corner-outfielder.
Shaun, a pitcher getting wins is no way relatable to a hitter accumulating HR and BA. Sorry but you whiffed on that analogy.
Home runs and BA for a hitter is more relatable to K’s and ERA for a pitcher.
There is nothing inherently wrong with the triple crown stats. Your preaching to the choir if you are saying they don’t tell the whole story, and your wrong if you are saying they are worhless.
January 31st, 20111:13 pm
look at Francoeur. In ‘06 and ‘07 he posted pretty respectable Triple Crown stats.
Please… “respectable Triple Crown stats”? In 2006 Franceour batted .260. That’s not “respectable” when discussing a triple crown. I wouldn’t have looked at .260/29/103 and thought, “in the running with the triple crown” ie “respectable”. In 2007 he amassed only 19 HR. Again, not something I would toss into the triple crown discussion. I think you could make the point more if you could find a player who routinely was a triple crown threat (.300+/30+/100+) while simultaneously being as awful as Francoeur. It’s pretty easy to cherry pick a season or two out of a generally underwhelming player. What you’ve done would be akin to cherry picking a routinely bad player who had one or two seasons in his entire career with a nice OBP to declare OBP is not all that good of an indicator for player production.
January 31st, 20111:16 pm
Not to keep picking on Francoeur but he is kind of the poster child for the “Triple Crown” way of thinking about the game.
No. He isn’t. He is the poster child for your cherry-picked argument. Sorry, man, but now you’re just getting silly with this.
January 31st, 20111:17 pm
T for Texas, here’s the problem: something like average with RISP or slugging with RISP over time is going to start to match overall average or overall slugging. And you get fooled with that, too. Given the relative small sample of plate appearances with RISP in a given year, the numbers can vary wildly from year-to-year.
TennPaul and I cribbing each other’s notes again, I see, LOL.
January 31st, 20111:21 pm
That little fire you tried to start last night has flickered and smoldered for quite some time. But I see it has really taken hold, now. Well played.
January 31st, 20111:24 pm
I dont think it took “the more astute” to recognize that his walk rate was terrible and unsustainable nor did you need to look up his OBP. You just needed to watch him take ugly swings at an obvious ball 4.
"Almost There" P-Town Brave ©
January 31st, 20111:26 pm
Your clock not working properly…you off work?
What gives that youre on during daylight?
You just needed to watch him take ugly swings at an obvious ball 4.
Confirmation bias. Observational heresy. Not to be trusted.
January 31st, 20111:29 pm
DAP, you’re right. Wins are more akin to RBI total.
TennesseePaul, I’m not saying Francoeur had a shot to win the Triple Crown…ever. I’m saying people who pay too much attention to those three stats probably got fooled.
TennesseePaul, Ruben Sierra is probably the best example I can come up with off the top of my head, particularly through age 30. He averaged 21 homers and 93 RBI. His batting average wasn’t outstanding but it was a seemingly respectable .270. Yet, his OPS+ was 109. His on-base was .319.
Did someone steal Tom O’Hawke’s name again? It is only 10:30, right?
January 31st, 20111:31 pm
True scoots. Watching the game is overrated.
TennPaul – I also had a great time this weekend with the NHL allstar activities, and am looking forward to the rest of the season. That said, I’m more than ready for baseball!
January 31st, 20111:33 pm
Oh boy we went from the clutch argument to the RBI argument.
RBIs not the best stat in the world, but the Braves sure do need someone in the lineup who can hit homers and drive in runs thats for sure.
It’s tough to get back into games when you don’t have any power. A lot easier to score runs when you have guys who can hit for homerun power.
That’s one of the reasons the Braves have struggled in close games against great pitching. Homeruns help you stay in games due to their efficiency. When it takes 3 hits to score a run vs 1 hit to score a run you are in trouble (which is compounded by the Braves lack of speed every year, very station to station team).
January 31st, 20111:35 pm
P-Town & cabravesfan (1:30 real time!)
January 31st, 20111:36 pm
Shaun–If Wins is a stat that lies about a pitcher’s performance, if triple crown stats, OBP, avg w/ RISP, all lie about a batter’s performance, how can you argue that you can divine anything from statistical analysis at all? And even more so, how can you argue the validity of “clutch” stats–given all the reasons you employ in arguing against the validity of other stats? Stats seem to be a girlfriend that you have a conveniently open realtionship with–”Open” when you want to see someone else, a “relationship” when she wants to see someone else.
January 31st, 20111:37 pm
Thanks for the fangraphs link, Moe.
This paragraph was in that:
Back when he was running the Orioles, Wren signed Albert Belle to an ill-fated five-year, $65 million contract. The GM is no stranger to long-term free agent contracts and the risk that accompanies them, especially now that his biggest free agent signing in Atlanta – Derek Lowe – has been unspectacular.
I agree that the Lowe deal was his (and also KK’s), but wasnt it said that the Belle deal was more because of the owner and not Wren? That’s a pretty big smudge on his GM resume and it might not even be his fault.
NHL All-Star weekend is probably the best All-Star game of any sport in America. Really great format this year.
The NFL Pro-Bowl has got to be the biggest joke in the world. Pointless to have an All-Star game at the end of the year, without Superbowl players, and play it a week before the Superbowl. It’s better than after the Superbowl, but really should do it mid-season like every other sport.
I saw you mention you lived in Randolph, VT a few post back .. and that you have been there 10 years. I was curious about the area and looked on Wikipedia for info on Randolph. It looks like a great area. A little too cold for me .. but very beautiful. Interesting demographic breakdown. I take it you don’t have much for Chinese takeout? Since you lived in the south for so long … guess you prepare your own soul food?
January 31st, 20111:38 pm
Wow…you mean you’re making it up for lunch now….
My the world has changed…
Maybe the prophecy is true about the world coming to an end in 2012
January 31st, 20111:39 pm
Payne: He averaged 21 homers and 93 RBI. His batting average wasn’t outstanding but it was a seemingly respectable .270
Sorry, but that, too me, isn’t a good example. Ruben had two years in his career that were close to triple crown like (1989 — .306/29/119, 1991 — .307/25/119) though one of them (1991) still was short with the HRs. He fell well short of “triple crown” numbers with regularity. He only hit 30HR in a season once. Find a guy who is routinely in the triple crown rankings… all three categories… and is generally as useless as Francoeur.
I loved every single concept of the NHL All-Star Weekend and think they did a great job selling it…
If only they were on a national network or a big time Cable network…
I know there are many out there that still don’t have Versus.
January 31st, 20111:40 pm
If Wins is a stat that lies about a pitcher’s performance, if triple crown stats, OBP, avg w/ RISP, all lie about a batter’s performance
Well, just remember the old saw: “lies, damn lies, and VORP.”
January 31st, 20111:41 pm
raleighbravefan, awesome. That’s cool you were there too. Did you get to meet Ms. North Carolina yesterday?
January 31st, 20111:42 pm
I don’t think it’s anything as meaningful as the world ending in 2012, P-Town
It’s just a pleasant little quirk in my daily schedule. You can relax.
January 31st, 20111:43 pm
Now, Ruben Sierra is a poster child. He gets trotted out every…single…time someone wants to marginalize BA/HR/RBI. I mean, without fail. The guy should be getting royalties for it, LOL.
January 31st, 20111:45 pm
Yeah, I know…
Just figured I’d give ya some crap for it…
Glad to see CA wasn’t far behind
January 31st, 20111:50 pm
Since 1900 there have only been 10 guys who hit .300/30/100 in a single season and had an OBP less than .350 and only 2 guys with OBP < .340. Worst was .332.
Tom – nothing like a good rational baseball debate going into February.
January 31st, 20111:52 pm
Ah, P-Town, she caught my real time comment. You can’t get much by her.
See y’all later. Gotta get back on the road.
January 31st, 20111:53 pm
Rational? I’m sorry, but when I signed up for this blog, I was under the impression we were going to be as irrational as possible.
January 31st, 20111:54 pm
And he makes a quick escape before he gets into more trouble…wise move, Tom
Yeah, that went well, and then branched off into similar discussions about other players. I think the turning point was getting DOB’s attention. Again, well played, man.
January 31st, 20111:55 pm
The NHL already had its all-star game? I didn’t even know their season had started.
MLB, NCAA Basketball, and NFL… everything else is just noise to me.
January 31st, 20111:56 pm
Worst was .332.
Geez louise, who the heck was that guy?
January 31st, 20111:57 pm
I agree that the Lowe deal was his (and also KK’s),
I am not certain that the Lowe deal should be chalked up as a bad one just yet. I mean if Derek delivers wins/losses and total innings for the next two years, as he has done for the lst two years it is hard to argue the contract was a bust–and the KK deal seems to be victimized by the same logic that hoodwinked a few other GMs, just because team J@pan won the World Baseball Classic does not mean that above average players from that league can automatically compete in MLB on a daily basis.
SnotB: Is that 10 instances of occurrence or 10 total players who may or may not have achieved the feat multiple times? And, if it is 10 players who have achieved it multiple times in their careers, Did any of those guys make a career of it or was that season the statistical outlier?
Lew – I grew up in a little town called Wallingford just south of Rutland. Still miss it just no in February.
January 31st, 20111:58 pm
P-Town Brave – By the way, hockey shootouts suck if the goalies stop every single player. My goodness Marc Andre Fleury stopped like the first 20 guys on the non-stop shoot-out.
January 31st, 20111:59 pm
Yes…never wanna get on your bad side…
I mean if Derek delivers wins/losses and total innings for the next two years, as he has done for the lst two years it is hard to argue the contract was a bust
It wouldn’t be that hard. The Braves, so far, have been paying $15M a season for a below league average pitcher… that’s $15M for an “innings eater.”
January 31st, 20112:00 pm
I’m not that bad! Ask VJ
January 31st, 20112:01 pm
TPaul and scoots
B-R hides the first 10 names without a subscription. So I am not sure if it is 10 different players. I should’ve said 10 instances – I’m sure there are a couple of repeat offenders in the list. So, I dont know who had the .332 OBP.
January 31st, 20112:02 pm
T for Texas, great question at 1:36 pm. The answer is that you have to combine stats with context. Context is extremely important. What’s behind a stat is as important as the stat itself. No stat is useful in and of itself. But stats are a useful tool to answer questions.
TennesseePaul, I’m not talking about anyone winning the Triple Crown. I’m talking about those 3 stats and calling them Triple Crown stats because, even if someone his .220 with 4 homers and 15 RBI, those are still the “Triple Crown” stats.
January 31st, 20112:04 pm
SB, that’s OK. That .332 guy is such an oddity, I’d probably only use him as a bar bet, anyway.
January 31st, 20112:07 pm
I wouldnt go so far as to call it a bust – just that Wren overpaid. And the extent of overpayment could certainly be affected largely by his performance over the next two years.
And anyway if compared to the Belle deal, it’s not even close. Lowe has been way more useful (till date).
January 31st, 20112:09 pm
Now, Ruben Sierra is a poster child. He gets trotted out every…single…time someone wants to marginalize BA/HR/RBI. I mean, without fail.
Scoots, next will be Bat posting that article about BMac doing yoga with all those 50 something women and having him tell us how hard Mac is working this offseason. I think I saw that 3 times in 08 and already once this year.
Yep, our catcher will be in as good shape as most 50 year old women. He’ll have company, too.
January 31st, 20112:12 pm
tiger, nobody specific in mind.
I’m with whoever thought that perhaps Chipper could have had a two year deal with a mutual option or an option that kicked in with PA or games played. Leaving Wren with more flexibility.
Perhaps Prado at 3B and a better fielding LF with some speed? Perhaps Carl Crawford? Perhaps McLouth in LF and somebody else to play CF?
I’ve stated it a few times. I’ll repeat it. I’m perfectly fine with Chipper in the everyday lineup. I’m NOT perfectly fine with him in the 3-hole.
It doesn’t get much more cut and dried than that. But my bigger concern is who plays LF when (not if) Prado comes in to play 3B when Chipper goes down, or perhaps doesn’t even start the season on time?
I lineup with Chipper in it is still a good lineup if he’s healthy. One can only assume that if he’s in the lineup….. he’s healthy.
I’m not worried about the 120 or so games that Chipper will probably play in. Im worried about the other 40 or so games, and who Fredi will trot out in LF (and that’s assuming that McLouth is a viable option in CF)…. Mather? Hinske? Leave Prado in LF and put Conrad at 3B?
The options aren’t pretty. Those options are fine options off the bench. They are fine options to spot start when a guy has “flu like symptons” or just simply needs a day off. None of those options, based on each of their flaws (Hinske and Conrad), are good options to go with for 3-4 weeks at a crack.
Now, that being said, I’m willing to see what a guy like Mather has to offer. Seems he also just needs to be healthy to be a viable everyday player.
I’ll also repeat this opinion. If our lineup and the Phillies lineup were to be completely healthy, and guys would play up to their career averages (obviously some sample sizes are awfully small…), I think this team can not only keep up with them, but seriously compete with them.
It really comes down to which squad has the bigger impact injuries (or guys not “returning” well from injuries or bad seasons – like Jurrjens), and who is better suited to have viable backups in place.
Ironically, with how stacked the Phillies pitching is, we are probably better suited to withstand a major injury in the rotation department with the young guys (and the loser of the Minor/Beachy 5th starter battle) in the pipeline who could come up at some point and make spot starts or stick around for a couple of weeks if needed.
But we are 1 major injury to the everyday lineup (Prado, Uggla, Mac or Heyward) away from being in serious trouble with our lineup. No real backups ready to contribute anywhere close to AAA.
The phillies lineup is good enough to withstand it (they did last year). Ours is not.
If McLouth sucks? So what. Call up Schafer or insert Mather. If it’s like last year, how much worse could it get? Rick Ankiel was a step up for cryin’ out loud.
If Freeman is a bust? Hinske could handle it until Wren found another option, or found an option for LF and moved Prado to 1B.
If Gonzo is a bust or gets hurt? That might be a little tougher to deal with.
And of course with Chipper if he’s hurt, the musical chairs of the lineup begins.
The Braves need one of two things to happen.
1) None of the above mentioned all-stars in the everyday lineup (Uggla, Prado, Heyward and Mac) can be out for an extended period of time.
2) One of Chipper, McLouth, Gonzo or Freeman needs to go “off” and have a monster season.
I’m gonna go with the odds of those other 4 guys not getting hurt as the more realistic option and that’s kind of scary, because with how hard Prado and Heyward play, and the nature of Mac being a catcher….. one of them is going to get hurt at some point.
Uggla has a pretty good track record of remaining healthy and in the lineup. So I think you can pencil him in for what he does every year.
January 31st, 20112:13 pm
I got it through some skulduggery. It was Alfonso Soriano in 2002.
39 HR, 102 RBI, .300 Avg with .332 OBP.
January 31st, 20112:15 pm
TennPaul – I missed Ms. NC, but did a lot of other cool stuff. I thought the Superskills was neat. Unlike many season ticket holders with lower level center ice, who lost their seats to league and team dignitaries and VIP’s, I sat in my regular upper-level seats. (the same seat I sat in when we won the Stanley cup, BTW).
Ease® in Woodstock
Whew! That was a long one…Everybody get all that?
January 31st, 20112:17 pm
TennesseePaul, also, we are talking about Chipper Jones and the people who under-appreciate him are likely doing it because they put too much stock in the “Triple Crown” statistics. That’s what got this started. People on this site have used the term “ugly” to describe his stats. People look at this batting average over the last couple of seasons, his homerun total, his RBI total but don’t look at the fact that he has one of the best OPS’s among thirdbasemen and he’s still getting enough plate appearances to qualify for rate-stat leaderboards.
January 31st, 20112:18 pm
N8 must be fun at parties.
January 31st, 20112:19 pm
I’m not talking about anyone winning the Triple Crown
I’m not either. I’m talking about using the triple crown stats appropriately for evaluation. No cherry picking.
2002…………..Alfonso Soriano……………wasn’t he a teammate of Sammy Sosa? Might need an asterisk later on.
January 31st, 20112:20 pm
N8 – I’m sure the Braves would have been happy to sign Chipper to only 2 guaranteed years with options. Chipper does get a say in what he will accept! Do you think he would have had trouble getting 4 years at $14M per as a free agent after winnijng a batting title?
January 31st, 20112:22 pm
I would not call Derek Lowe a bust. Overpaid but not a bust because he keeps pitching just well enough to win 15 games. I would compare Lowe to a rookie Left Tackle that you took 3rd in the draft. Say he washes out at Left tackle but becomes a really good RG. You paid him to be a tackle but you still got a good RG out of it.
January 31st, 20112:23 pm
N8 – Completely agree especially with Chipper in the 3 slot. Also feel directly to your point about Mather he is good enough to be an everyday player but injuries are his problem. Since we only need him to start the 42 games Chipper sits out he is a pretty solid fit for that position.
How do you see the batting order this year (I like opening this topic)?
January 31st, 20112:26 pm
People on this site have used the term “ugly” to describe his stats.
I get it Payne. But you are refuting those “ugly” stats (.265/~20/~70) of Chipper by citing guys (Sierra with his .268/21/66 avg) who have equally bad stats. The difference between the two is OBP. I get it. You could easily say, “his OBP still makes him worth while” instead of climbing up on the soap box to cherry pick.
TennesseePaul, that’s my point. Triple Crown stats are largely worthless for evaluation. Look at Chipper Jones. He’s been a pretty good player even though his Triple Crown numbers aren’t very good; and this is why he’s been underrated.
January 31st, 20112:30 pm
raleighbravefan, abslutely Chipper has the say.
But do you really think he was going anywhere else? And at some point you have to have the balls as a GM to make tough decisions. Wren has shown he has those balls based on what he did with Glavine and Smoltz (and not to mention leaving Ripken behind at the airport).
Listen. For what should be the last time (but won’t be, because people will continue to argue the wrong point of my point with me), I’m not bitching about the decision to sign Chipper to the extension. At the time it appeared to be the “right” move when everything (ticket sales, merchandise and the Smoltz fiasco) was considered into play.
That doesn’t mean that as of right now moving forward (and last year), that contract isn’t a burden on Wren’s payroll.
Add to that, you had a manager who insisted on batting him 3rd, and apparently a new manager who just might do the same thing.
THAT is where my problem lies. Not with Wren giving him the extension.
January 31st, 20112:31 pm
Unlike many season ticket holders with lower level center ice, who lost their seats to league and team dignitaries and VIP’s, I sat in my regular upper-level seats. (the same seat I sat in when we won the Stanley cup, BTW)
lol… Well I was one of those VIP’s snatching seats I guess. That’s cool you were there for the Stanley cup. That would have been a blast to attended. I have been trying to learn more about the Canes since I moved here. I haven’t followed hockey much at all, especially after the time in LA with two MLB teams to go to. But now that I’m here, NHL is all there is to do so I’ve got to start learning. All-Star weekend seemed like a great way to begin.
January 31st, 20112:34 pm
Triple Crown stats are largely worthless for evaluation
That’s my point. If I pull up a guy with a couple of good OBP in a career of bad OBP, I could too claim that OBP is a largely worthless way of evaluating players over all. But I’m not as naive as your statement comes seems. I do realize that a guy with routinely good Triple Crown numbers is going to be a good player. I also realize any guy in baseball can have fluke seasons, good or bad, and making broad accusations about the player or a certain statistic based on the fluke seasons is a poor, poor, sign of judgment.
January 31st, 20112:35 pm
I talked to Fredi Gonzalez for a while this morning. Asked him about lineup, and he said he’s had about seven or eight different ones, but keeps coming back to the one that goes righty-lefty-righty-lefty pretty much through the lineup, with Prado hitting leadoff.
I asked specifically about Chipper, and Fredi said he’s in every lineup he’s made out, and he’s in the 3-hole in every one of them. So he’s confident Chipper will be ready, and he’s also got no plans to hit him anywhere but third….
I got down to the ballpark at the end of today’s pitching-camp session, after getting a filling and cleaning at the dentist (my jaw and lip are still numb 3-1/2 hours later).
Got a chance to talk to a few guys, but I’m going back tomorrow to watch some guys throw including Linebrink. Going to do a bullpen story later in a couple of days, and I’ll write a new blog tomorrow after I get back from the workout.
tiger couldn’t agree more on the lineup. Based on his declining slugging percentage and excellent OBP, along with the fact that most of the time he bats LH….. Chipper is the ideal option to bat in the 2-hole.
You’ve got RH-LH-RH etc…. all throughout the lineup that way (and Chipper can handle the bat just fine against LHP when needed.
I also like having Gonzo 8th instead of Freeman. It gives Freeman some good OBP guys ahead of him to knock in with his doubles and gives him a little more protection with Gonzo batting behind him. We all know Gonzo is a free hacker. So who cares who’s behind him. He’s going to swing away either way. Freeman needs to not have the pitcher as his protection, imo.
One thing I’ve learned from this place is that there are a lot of people with no lives.
January 31st, 20112:37 pm
He’s been a pretty good player even though his Triple Crown numbers aren’t very good; and this is why he’s been underrated.
As to the last part of this statement, I think you have this all mixed up. I’m certain there are people who underrate Chipper lately. I’m certain there are people who over rate him… but this need to refute peoples opinions every time you see it posted on this one single topic… it Robertic…
January 31st, 20112:39 pm
TennPaul – I didn’t know you were a VIP! (LOL) Good for you. I thought they were crazy to try to bring hockey here. I went to one of the Cup finals games against Detroit in 2002 and was immediately hooked. Took a while to learn the game (still learning, but know a lot more now), and have been a ticket holder since 2003. I’ve been to many BIG ACC bsketball games in my time (and a few bowl games as well), but little compares to watching your team win game 7 of the Cup finals.
January 31st, 20112:40 pm
Shaun, January 31st, 2011, 12:56 pm … “Chipper has … been “ugly”…?
Relative to his 2007, 2008 numbers, Chipper’s 2009 and 2010 were “ugly.” But, compared to the Braves 2010, Chipper was not so bad. Don’t know if that was clear in the post, but that’s what I meant.
It’s really a statement of how good Chipper has been throughout his career and how high the expectations are for Chipper among the fan base.
January 31st, 20112:42 pm
I thought they were crazy to try to bring hockey here.
Thought the same thing when I found out Hockey was here. But from my understanding the Canes are one of the most successful franchises in the NHL since moving here due in large part to the complete lack of any near by major league organizations.
Bay Area Steve
January 31st, 20112:44 pm
Great stuff today. If only 10Paul’d divulge his Secret Society ability to make those charts…
All that great reearch reminds me of that guy mid-season. Chris something, maybe? All those great early morning numbers, darn-near everyday. Professed the Braves could never collapse… And then they did. Dude was never heard from again. Hope he didn’t step in front of a train…
January 31st, 20112:45 pm
Chipper was not so bad. Don’t know if that was clear in the post, but that’s what I meant.
Kind of figured as much. At any rate, I wouldn’t have cherry picked a couple of fluke seasons from a routinely bad player to dismiss entirely several forms of statistics. It still baffles me that people will point to Francoeur and Sierra as proof that triple crown numbers lie, when their triple crown numbers suggest they were not good players. Seems like those numbers are adequate enough in coming to the same conclusion.
January 31st, 20112:46 pm
If only 10Paul’d divulge his Secret Society ability to make those charts…
Research my friend. Besides, I wasn’t a VIP at the All-Star game for nothing. : )
January 31st, 20112:49 pm
BAS – I believe that was Brian from SC…he was a engineer so he was really good with dem numbers…
January 31st, 20112:50 pm
I don’t know if my last comment went through, but I just thanked you DOB. Out there giving us our Braves stuff with a numb mouth and all says how cool you are. Again, thanks.
January 31st, 20112:52 pm
From yesterday ….agreed on Ashton Kutcher. Annoying as hell and one bad actor. Don’t see why he gets so many parts in big movies either.
January 31st, 20112:53 pm
Yes, Ease. Thank you. Miss that guy’s stuff.
January 31st, 20112:55 pm
N8 … you need to get one of those sun-visors like they had on Northern Exposure. I think the lack of daylight is starting to make you see nothing but negatives.
If one of the Braves all-star starters goes down, Braves will suffer a bit. If two go down, they’ll suffer a bit more. If half the team resides on the DL, Braves won’t be competitive in 2011.
When has that ever happened?
OK … so it happened in 2008. When has it happened twice in the same decade?
January 31st, 20112:56 pm
Thanks, TnBrian. Not really much sacrifice or anything, though. It’s numb, but doesn’t hurt or anything. Just that weird feeling when it feels like you can’t move your mouth and the side of your head is huge (even though it’s not).
January 31st, 20112:57 pm
keeps coming back to the one that goes righty-lefty-righty-lefty pretty much through the lineup, with Prado hitting leadoff.
With Heyward at 6 and Freeman at 8. I’ll be down by the lake, checking the boat for gas.
January 31st, 20112:58 pm
Same reason a lot of guys have jobs in baseball when they aren’t the best available player… box office.
Ashton Kutcher has built a huge following and will always bring in a good ROI on his movies based on those followers. I read an article about him recently and everything he’s doing on the web… for as big a tool and he seems to be in his movies he’s actually a pretty astute businessman and is quietly building an empire that’s set up perfectly to take advantage of new media and the web.
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