5:46 pm January 25, 2011, by Carroll Rogers
January 27th, 20112:52 pm
ncscoots, here’s fangraph’s explanation:
“Clutch measures how well a player performed in high leverage situations. It’s calculated using WPA and WPA/LI, and it compares a player’s performance against himself. For example, a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.”
“The majority of players in the league end up with Clutch scores between 1 and -1, with zero being neutral, positive scores being “clutch”, and negative scores being “choke”. Only a few players each year are lucky enough (or unlucky enough) to have extreme Clutch scores.”
“Clutch does a good job of describing the past, but it does very little towards predicting the future. Simply because one player was clutch at one point does not mean they will continue to perform well in high-leverage situations. For example, here’s Alex Rodriguez’s last five years of Clutch scores (most recent to least recent): 1.44, 0.95, -3.17, 0.97, -1.40. No continuity at all.”
January 27th, 20112:53 pm
I know ward, the dead giveaway was the use of punctuation in “I’m”…
It’s no wonder Robert turned to a life of antagonizing the masses after the amount of time he’s spent on here. Animals, every one you… animals!
a player performs well or poorly in the clutch, it’s just something that happens due to randomness.
It’s always good to have Shaun post this on a slow blog day, ain’t it? Some advertising guy at the AJC just wet his pants, anticipating the uptick in page hits.
January 27th, 20112:54 pm
WOW! (And I liked the added photos of Gwinnett stadium, too. Haven’t been there myself, yet, but daughter goes often.) I couldn’t begin to name our wrens…..WAAAAY too many of them, although we do have one that seems to come consistently up to the sliding glass door. I name my hummingbirds, based mostly on size and characteristics..Biggie One, Teeny Butt, Flicker (refuses to sit on the feeder), Mr. Peeper (always peeks in the window both before and after going to the feeder, like he’s saying please and thank you, etc.
Had a nest of Flycatchers on the railing of our carport year before last and managed to watch those eggs and babies but had to stay far, far away. They are extremely suspicious birds. Then, last year, I’d been given my kitten and once he decided to hop up there on the railing, we KNEW they wouldn’t be back to build another nest. Luckily, the now cat and my other birds have come to an agreement of some sort and he doesn’t bother them at the feeder.
January 27th, 20112:55 pm
ncscoots, basically if clutch is something that is a repeatable skill, wouldn’t we expect players who were good clutch hitters to outperform themselves (relative to their overall stats) in clutch situations every year? That just doesn’t happen, according to FanGraphs. Unless you believe FanGraphs has some incentive to lie about this.
January 27th, 20112:56 pm
Murph: how’s it going buddy? What do you think about Vlad being a Brave?
January 27th, 20112:57 pm
Yes, Shaun, I’ve been known to frequent fangraphs myself, you know. We aren’t all struggling ignorantly in the wilderness, hoping to find the one true path.
January 27th, 20112:59 pm
For example, here’s Alex Rodriguez’s last five years of Clutch scores (most recent to least recent): 1.44, 0.95, -3.17, 0.97, -1.40. No continuity at all.
Wow… it’s like you can see the last ounces of juice pumping through his veins.
January 27th, 20113:00 pm
Look! Murph and ward are here together. See eveyone, I told you they weren’t the same person.
January 27th, 20113:01 pm
wouldn’t we expect players who were good clutch hitters to outperform themselves (relative to their overall stats) in clutch situations every year?
Why would we expect “hitters to outperform themselves… every year”?
January 27th, 20113:03 pm
I have no comment on clutch and repeatability, LOL. Nor do I care to express an opinion on the moral character of fangraphs’ writers.
January 27th, 20113:04 pm
Beaking news……Cantu signs with Padres…………..
January 27th, 20113:06 pm
Speak for yourself, man, when talking about struggling ignorantly! Just about the time I think I’ve gotten something figured out, someone on here disabuses me of that notion. About the only conclusion I’ve come to is that there ISN’T one true path.
We aren’t all struggling ignorantly in the wilderness, hoping to find the one true path.
Well basically scoots, I hate to break it to you, but at this level there isn’t much that can be done for you. You’ve made it to the upper echelon as it is. Any impact Payne’s attempted managing or coaching may have on you is marginal at best. He’s basically here to appease the masses so that you have a clear working environment to keep producing at the top level.
Wait a minute…ward’s still alive?!?
Now, I’m seriously confused. I thought he met his demise through death-by-Robert, through Murph.
McFann O O
January 27th, 20113:08 pm
Thanks! The Gwinnette Stadium is nice—we went there for Grand Opening Day (April, 2009), and then again for BMac’s rehab game in May, 2009 (photos here! ). And then last year—in either May or June…all of the sudden I forget—a cousin of ours played a game there—I think for Travel Ball—and we went to that. Like I said, it’s a nice stadium.
I LOVE your hummingbird names! Too cute. That’s too bad about your Flycatchers not coming back…but I’m glad to know your cat and the other birds have come to that agreement. We have WAAAAAY too many stray cats around our house…gonna have to get some repellant or something before nesting season starts. I hold nothing against cat owners like you and Wayne—but I can’t stand people who get cats or dogs or any pets and just set them free…I feel bad for the pets themselves and the birds they scare away…
I couldn’t begin to name our wrens…..WAAAAY too many of them
Oh!! FUN! The more Wrennies the merrier! (Although House Wrens are quite mean…sometimes they’ll kill eggs and/or baby birds if the wrens want their nestbox. ) What kind of Wrens do you see mostly?
we do have one that seems to come consistently up to the sliding glass door.
That sounds like Beggar Ben! Here’s a video of him eating from my hand a couple weeks ago. He only comes around in the winter, unlike the other Carolina Wrens we’ve always had. Don’t know where he goes in the Summer, ’cause Carolina Wrens don’t migrate.
January 27th, 20113:09 pm
TennesseePaul, okay, if hitting in high-leverage situations or clutch situations is a repeatable skill, we would expect him in the clutch or in high-leverage situations to perform better than he does overall. But players don’t. Players sometimes perform better and sometimes perform worse and usually perform equally well or poorly in high-leverage or clutch situations than they do overall. And there is no rhyme or reason. A player might outperform his overall numbers in high-leverage situations one year, then under-perform his overall numbers in high-leverage situations the next.
If clutch was a skill (like, say, hitting homers is a skill), wouldn’t we expect to see the same guys every season among the league leaders in outperforming their overall numbers in the clutch? We don’t.
January 27th, 20113:10 pm
Nice…all that bolding, italicizing, and linking, I thought for sure I’d “McFann” that one…
“‘Not so,’ said the brown turtle”…
Well I’ll see you guy’s later! Be cool Brave Fans, and peace friends……..
January 27th, 20113:11 pm
About the only conclusion I’ve come to is that there ISN’T one true path.
TennPaul, LOL. But I appreciate Shaun’s unceasing efforts to help me see the error of my ways. In fact, I’m pretty close to actually purchasing a Bill James Handbook.
January 27th, 20113:14 pm
TennesseePaul, no, managers and coaches are there to make a marginal difference. Marginal differences matter. What I was arguing against is the idea that managers and coaches generally make more than a marginal difference. But that doesn’t mean it’s not worth evaluating a manager or a coach because, even if a manager or a coach is worth 2-3 runs a year or something like that, it’s worth paying attention to. Division titles and Wild Cards are sometimes won and lost by 2-3 runs a year.
January 27th, 20113:17 pm
If clutch was a skill (like, say, hitting homers is a skill), wouldn’t we expect to see the same guys every season among the league leaders in outperforming their overall numbers in the clutch?
Perhaps this is the wrong question/expectation Payne. Or perhaps the parameters for filtering the data set are invalid thus negating the results, returning erratic results. Or perhaps the “expectations” are not correct. In summary, perhaps we don’t know enough about how to properly analyze this topic to determine what we should expect as a result and the frequency of variation. Are we not out to find truth through crunching numbers? Why give up now?
January 27th, 20113:18 pm
Funny how I get made fun of for pointing out the data. When you can’t argue with the data and you are uncomfortable with what it points out, make fun of the messenger, if that makes you feel better.
January 27th, 20113:19 pm
DAP – I don’t disagree with your points, and we all want the team to be as strong as possible at every position. My point was that I don’t think AG is as bad as many think, and that we can live with him for a year and still prosper.
Now, where the rubber meets the road, so to speak, what is the alternative to AG this season? Do we trade him, and if so, to who, and who do we replace him with? What would it cost to trade him, and what would it cost to replace him? Do we currently have a better option, and if so, what do you do with AG (and his salary)? I’m not arguing, just asking. I agree that after this year, I hope we have a better and cheaper alternative, but until then, I think we are OK with him.
January 27th, 20113:21 pm
scoots, we all appreciate the antics. Hell I’m a huge fan of them myself. That’s part of the reason we all show up… to the games to see the mascots and managers or to the blog… for the antics. It’s hard not to appreciate them and they do quite a wonderful job distracting the masses, relieving pressure on those who need to continue to preform.
January 27th, 20113:22 pm
would it not be of greater concern if someone was consistently underperforming in clutch or leverage situtations? But yet we see it all the time. What does this mean in contrast to those that consistently are above the norm?
January 27th, 20113:25 pm
raleighbravefan, excellent point and I really think thats the dilemma we face with AGon.
When you can’t argue with the data
That’s true. It never talks back. It’s inanimate. You never get a rise out of it. It never gets defensive. It’s just no fun to attempt to have a conversation, heated or civil, with data. You’re just standing around talking to the number 2.16. The damn thing never even tries to crack a joke, you know, just to break the ice.
ralieghbravesfan what is the alternative to AG this season?
there isnt a good fee agent as of now, but earlier in the offseason, renteria and uribe were both free agents.
you have to figure though, that there is no guarantee either of those guys out plays gonzalez. its possible that they do, but its also possible gonzalez out plays them, which makes it pointless to try for it. im not sure what SS were or are available for trade.
i do think this team is very well put together, and having gonzalez doesnt bother me one bit. i think he will be fine.
January 27th, 20113:26 pm
TennesseePaul, go for it. I’ve never seen any evidence that clutch is a skill by any parameters filtering the data set or no matter what the expectations.
“In summary, perhaps we don’t know enough about how to properly analyze this topic to determine what we should expect as a result and the frequency of variation. Are we not out to find truth through crunching numbers? Why give up now?”
Maybe we don’t. Maybe the people who’ve done the research are missing something. But no matter the parameters or expectations or variations they use, there is no evidence so far that a player outperforming his overall numbers in clutch situations is a repeatable skill (like hitting homers or striking out hitters is a repeatable skill). So we go by what’s available and what is most likely based on the exhaustive research and by carrying it out as far as possible. Until we see something otherwise, I’ll trust what all the research and data and evidence indicates is most likely. But if you want to go against all that simply because you don’t like the results and you would rather believe something difference, more power to you.
January 27th, 20113:28 pm
Funny how I get made fun of for pointing out the data.
Shaun, that’s not why I do it, not at all. What TennPaul (yeah, he’s a troublemaker, just like me) and I josh you about is your unwavering stances, your absolute stolidity on certain issues. That’s all. Hey, man, if we didn’t like you, we wouldn’t kid you about stuff. We’d just go on our merry way, instead.
Bro, it’s never about the math, and it worries me a little that you would think such a thing.
Can anyone tell me how I can watch live Braves games online without having to buy a cable package?? Im in Alabama and im pretty sure we are blacked out at MLB.TV, not positive though.
January 27th, 20113:31 pm
Haven’t even tried to feed the wren that comes to the sliding glass door. Any movement I make on the inside causes ALL of the birds to take off, anyway. We have both Carolina and Marsh wrens and hard to tell the difference sometimes at a glance.
My grandson has gone to take some instructions at Gwinnett and he’s on a travel ball team this year, but awfully young. Kinda doubt they’ll play at Gwinnett. He’s with the Crossroad Legends and they begin play in March, so am looking forward to seeing him, although sorry we’ll miss them at ST because of his schedule.
January 27th, 20113:34 pm
there is no evidence so far that a player outperforming his overall numbers in clutch situations is a repeatable skill (like hitting homers or striking out hitters is a repeatable skill).
What says those are repeatable skills as well? Aren’t they just a collection of happenstance instances? Who’s pitching to who? Who’s up to bat? ie…
It’s all a matter of increasing your odds of return.
January 27th, 20113:41 pm
-Looks like Zack Morris.
-Hits like Screech Powers.
-Throws like Lisa Turtle.
January 27th, 20113:42 pm
Just Pat Any movement I make on the inside causes ALL of the birds to take off, anyway.
Aw, that’s a shame. It takes them a while to get used to the idea—some of our birds (Beggar Ben, sometimes pine warbles, Ms. Phoebe, and others) have gotten to where if they just see me in the backyard, they think I must have mealworms for them. So I have to go get some—just can’t say “no” to those faces!
We have both Carolina and Marsh wrens
Cool! I’ve never seen a real Marsh Wren before—we have seen Winter Wrens, and I think we saw a House Wren once. I’d love to see a Cactus Wren—they’re about as big as a Cardinal!
although sorry we’ll miss them at ST because of his schedule.
Aw, that’s a shame. But that’s cool about your grandson—hope he does well!
January 27th, 20113:43 pm
DAP – seems we pretty much agree.
January 27th, 20113:48 pm
ralieghbravesfan DAP – seems we pretty much agree.
doncha hate it whent hat happens? :- )
January 27th, 20113:49 pm
Arkansas Transplant, maybe it’s more appropriate to say hitting homers and striking out hitters are more repeatable than other skills.
January 27th, 20113:51 pm
Beaking News – a typo, or are Just Pat and McFann writing a Bird Book?
well I guess I should go get dressed for the PTC caravan stop…see how good a job McCann does bagging my beer.
January 27th, 20113:54 pm
Data/stats are interpreted many ways, and can be used to prove both sides of most points, and the truth is in the eyes of the beholder (or believer/faithful, much like the Bible).
Like the Bible, stats can be a useful tool – a guide, as it were – to determin the truth/facts. That said, to say you can’t argue with the data is not actually true, as there are conflicting conclusions to be drawn from many “facts”. This is why we have many denominations, not ot mention many who are not Christian of any description. For example, I hear Conservatives and Librals both try to use the same data from the Congressional Budget Office (non-partisan) to “prove their point”. Another example is the discussion here today over how much worth there is in OBP. The best you can usually say is that it’s subject to debate, and that’s the main reason most of us are here.
January 27th, 20113:55 pm
You want to provide the illustrations?
I used to argue that – of all people – Jeff Francouer was an example of a hitter with repeatable clutch skills. Though there are lots of ways to twist the numbers, in ‘05, ‘06, and ‘07 he posted OPS’s of .881, .977 and .769 “late and close”. And in 2 of those years, monster numbers in “high leverage” situations.
I thought I’d found a guy who was legitimately better in the clutch than otherwise. But the last three years he’s been even suckier in those situations than in low-leverage.
And he was my only example. Gotta agree with Shaun on this one. It’s hard, if not impossible, to prove that there is such a thing as a “clutch hitter.”
It’s interesting to me, because it’s so contrary to intuition. Seems like there would be a number of guys who locked in more in key spots, but like Shaun (and fangraphs) have said, not much statistical basis for that.
January 27th, 20113:57 pm
Just Pat – I think that you’ll find McFann quite capable of handling the illos.
DAP – I always say you can’t learn anything from someone who always agrees with you. For that reason, I DO kinda hate when that happens, although it is gratifying to have your opinion validated from time to time.
January 27th, 20114:00 pm
That’s right. I forgot that was another of her talents. Oh, well…maybe you could do the introduction for us.
T for Texas
When you can’t argue with the data and you are uncomfortable with what it points out
I have no problem with statistical analysis. Matter of fact I like it quite a bit. The problem I have with many of the new metrics is that UZR, WAR, Clutch Stats, and a few others are attempts at trying to find a way to quantify an observable phenomenon in the game, but that these same metrics, by admission of their creators, are flawed–as many of them plug arbitrary numerical measurements of an observation (say, defensive range) into a formula that then creates an output that by definition can only be arbitrary. Then people argue over a players relative value, citing these arbitrary numbers, as if they are concrete facts.
Until things get more concrete give me the ol’ triple slash, the basic pitching stats, and let me watch the game and evaluate from there.
January 27th, 20114:01 pm
Hey everyone what about Justin Maxwell for a backup OFer? the Nats just DFAed him.
January 27th, 20114:02 pm
DAP – I always say you can’t learn anything from someone who always agrees with you.
And then there’s Robert who never learns from someone who disagrees with him.
"Possibly Turning The Corner" P-Town Brave ©
January 27th, 20114:03 pm
I sing in the church choir – pretty well, I might add. However, If I am ever required to sing solo, I nearly freeze with “stage fright”, which makes it darn near imposible to perform at my best. I would say that I’m not a “clutch singer”. Others I know, seem totally unaffected by the pressure, and are able to perform at an optimal level during “pressure situations”. There are many examples of this phenomenon in war amoung soldiers (the stuff “heros” are made of). I believe the same is true of ball players.
January 27th, 20114:05 pm
About watching Braves games online: Go to this website myp2p.eu and click on “Live sports” and then baseball. Usually they have some bootleg streams for mlb games. Quality is not always guaranteed and you might need to install some software to watch the streams.The instructions for the software are usually dealt with in the forums. I’d say it’s not a bad shot if you have no other means of watching a game.
January 27th, 20114:06 pm
fleming – you can lead a horse(az) to water, but you can make him drink (or teach him anything is his mind is shut).
And then there are those – AROD, Bonds – who seemed to do worse in Playoff. Wonder why.
January 27th, 20114:07 pm
I think – based on previous discussions with Shaun – he believes that all players at the ML level can handle pressure equally and that it doesnt vary much based on location, team etc.
January 27th, 20114:08 pm
But I bet you can perform better to certain songs too.
Unless your a switch singer.
January 27th, 20114:12 pm
Snot – I happen to disagree with that view, but Shaun is interpreting his data his way. I depend more on imperical evedence.
AT – True that, but it has to do more with comfort level than raw ability. (switch, no, but I can sing Tenor or Baritone).
January 27th, 20114:15 pm
Lew or are Just Pat and McFann writing a Bird Book?
Not a bad idea. Actually, I would like to write one someday about all our little friends—the main focus would be my Wrens, of course!
I think that you’ll find McFann quite capable of handling the illos.
50 Greatest Collisions on MLB TV now.
I happen to disagree with that view, but Shaun is interpreting his data his way. I depend more on imperical evedence.
I agree with you too.Shaun believes that stats can tell him everything. Unfortunately I just cant agree with that. Probably years in the future they’ll develop statistical models capable to doing that, but not just yet.
January 27th, 20114:16 pm
switch, no, but I can sing Tenor or Baritone
You can hit for both average AND power!
I can do a mean Go Down Moses.
Let my people go!!
January 27th, 20114:17 pm
Anyone been to any of the Braves caravan stops? How big are the crowds? I’m going to take my son to one and I’d like to leave work early enough so he can get a few autographs.
January 27th, 20114:18 pm
tiger297 see how good a job McCann does bagging my beer.
Hahahaha! BMac bagging groceries…how cute!
50 Greatest Collisions on MLB TV now.
Damn Dish Network!!!!!!!!!
January 27th, 20114:19 pm
scoots, Sometimes, but like everyone, I can get into terrible slumps. Not many home runs, but a fair amount of doubles.
We went last year—GET THERE EARLY!! We were some of the last people do get in…a lot of people had to go home empty-handed.
January 27th, 20114:20 pm
keylargo 50 Greatest Collisions on MLB TV now.
Eesh…what kind of program is that?
January 27th, 20114:21 pm
raleighbravesfan Not many home runs, but a fair amount of doubles.
That seems reasonable…
Don’t be hard on yourself raleighbravefan, it happens to the best of us.
January 27th, 20114:22 pm
Ick…Who ordered “The McFann Show”?
January 27th, 20114:23 pm
starts at 4:30. If I get there at 3:30 is that early enough?
Pete Rose just took out Bud Harrelson at 2b for but I bet him running over Ray Fosse is #1.
Just to update, my mom said that Javy Lopez brought the bats down for everyone in the camp and that my dad was receiving hitting instruction directly from Sid Bream this morning…
Sounds like a great time
January 27th, 20114:24 pm
MikeInFL: I thought I’d found a guy who was legitimately better in the clutch than otherwise. But the last three years he’s been even suckier in those situations than in low-leverage.
I wouldn’t give up hope Mike. What also occurred with Francoeur was a complete deterioration of over all hitting ability. The Hammer could smack a home run better than any one, but you throw him out there now and you aren’t going to see that ability. Just because he lost it, doesn’t mean he never had it.
January 27th, 20114:25 pm
50 Greatest Collisions on MLB TV now
Was the Greg Olsen collision in there?
Javy Lopez and Greg Olson have held onto the ball at the Plate for the Braves. Wonder if McCann will make an appearance?
January 27th, 20114:26 pm
I just remember him being hauled off on a stretcher.
Hmm…it might be, but it’s hard to say…I want to say, “Yes”, but I’d hate to mislead you. 3-3:30 sounds early enough…
Wish I could remember how long before it started we got there last year…
vabravesfan Hey everyone what about Justin Maxwell for a backup OFer? the Nats just DFAed him.
i saw that. i like maxwell, and id definetly consider picking him up if i were the braves.
ralieghbravesfan, do you tend to sing better later in the service? perhaps during the invitation, when the chips are down?
January 27th, 20114:28 pm
raleighbravefan or anyone, try interpreting or twisting the data to conclude that performing better in the clutch or high-leverage situations than under all situations is a repeatable skill. If you think I’m twisting the data, look at the data yourself. Ask yourself if there is anything there to suggest that it is a repeatable skill. It’s easy to say I’m interpreting the data my way, but look for yourself. All I’m doing is asking the question and looking for the answer in the data.
They just showed the Prior – Giles collision. I don’t think either player was the same after that.
January 27th, 20114:29 pm
keylargo Wonder if McCann will make an appearance?
Oh, gosh, I hope not…
Although I would be int’rested to see the Eric Byrnes collision again…they don’t have a replay on the Braves website, and I can’t remember what it looked like—that whole thing is just a blur in my memory. I only remember a practically knocked my Sister down getting to the TV…
Not that it matters a whole lot here, though, seein’ as how I’m not watching that show…
McFann, I read your comments about the birds. I was wondering, do you see the little bird with the gimpy leg like you said before?
January 27th, 20114:30 pm
TennesseePaul, there was a deterioration in Francouer’s overall hitting ability? When was Francouer ever a good hitter? Those first 70 games in 2005. That’s about it.
Thanks, I guess I’ll be safe and get there at 3:00. I’d hate for my son to miss out on getting to see Marteeeen!
I still recall that image of Skates coming around third all flexed up, arms crossed ready to crash into someone… don’t recall who but it looked menacing.
Fodder-Wing the Robin? Oh yes, he’s still around! He’s won a few battles over the Mockingbird lately. That danged Mockingbird keeps attacking, but Fodder-Wing never gives up!
January 27th, 20114:31 pm
Mark Prior just completely creamed Marcus Giles. 6′6″ Prior just absolutely blindsides 5′8″ Giles.
DAP – I tend to do better in low pressure situations – OR when my voice is properly warmed up!
I’m outta here. Been fun. See you tomorrow. (Got to get ready for choir practice).
January 27th, 20114:33 pm
I am so glad to hear about the robin winning. You should protect him over the mockingbird. I tell you another aggressive bird is the brown thrasher. My aunt used to walk her little Italian Greyhound outside and the brown thrashers just started attacking him out of no where. Rest his vicious little soul, though.
January 27th, 2011
50 Greatest Collisions on MLB TV now.
Damn Dish Network!!!!!!!!!
I didn’t think anyone still had Dish after the last weekend of last year’s regular season. I went to Direct TV the next week!
January 27th, 20114:34 pm
Andruw Jones clobbered Giles, too, didn’t he?
January 27th, 20114:35 pm
Trey, they killed the greyhound? Holy cow!
Im a cheap SOB….I’d love to drop em but I cant get myself to pay the fee to disconnect! You wanna pay it for me.
January 27th, 20114:36 pm
We’ve thrown things at the Mockingbird, but to no avail. He looks at us like we’re crazy…
My aunt used to walk her little Italian Greyhound outside and the brown thrashers just started attacking him out of no where.
Good grief! Yeah, they cann be mean when they wannoo…and they’ve got some serious beaks, Brown Thrashers!
January 27th, 20114:37 pm
TennPaul, If Francoeur’s skills deteriorated (which they didn’t; they were just never great), they wouldn’t show up when we compare his high-leverage numbers to his overall numbers.
Again, if a player hits .250 overall and .250 in the high-leverage or if a player hits .300 overall and .300 in high-leverage, it’s still a difference of 0 when we are looking at whether a player is performing better in high-leverage than overall.
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