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© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
4,178 comments Add your comment
DAP
January 27th, 2011
11:57 am
lew I’m doubting he hits more than 15 HR, though.
probably not, but thats about 13 more than diory would hit.
Lew
January 27th, 2011
11:57 am
DAP- Agreed on that.
Bobby Hill
January 27th, 2011
11:58 am
Don’t get me wrong, I have no great expectations for Diory. I don’t think he’ll ever be much more than a utility infielder, but he hasn’t been much of a shot either (94 ab’s spread across two seasons).
I’m not really suggesting the Braves bench Seabass. Like Lew, I think his dense will stabilize. But I also think that his offensive output will be pretty much on par with what we saw in Atlanta last year. Nothing to get excited about. I also think that if the team is looking to add offense at the deadline, an upgrade at SS might be easier to swing than a CF.
richbrave
January 27th, 2011
11:59 am
With SAMMONS gone, I would expect JC BOSCAN and/or ORLANDO MERCADO to fill that slot in AAA. At least, early in the season.
This allows up room for CHRISTIAN BETHANCOURT to advance from ROME.
MATT KENNELLY should then move up to MYRTLE/LYNCHBURG. Btw, KENNELLY closed the AUSSIE league regular campaign with a rush, hauling his overall average north by 50+ points the last three-four weeks of the season and closing at .306. Over his last 10, MATT went 17-32 with a homer and two doubles,.625 OBP, .688 SLG, 1.313 OPS, and a 531 BA. Of all BRAVES catchers [BOSCAN, MERCADO, SUCRE, KENNELLY] in fall ball, his results at the plate were by far the more impressive.
JC BOSCAN and MERCADO will provide the regular catching duties in GWINNETT more than likely unless the BRAVES bring in some outside talent, and also the insurance for ATLANTA down on the farm. BOSCAN and MERCADO both played this fall and neither distinguished themselves with a stick in their hands.
More than likely ‘SWEET’ JESUS SUCRE will be the regular back-stop in AA PEARL with a potential call-up MATT KENNELLY learning the double A ropes as the sub later in the season.
This should clear BETHANCOURT to advance to LYNCHBURG [A+] from ROME [A], possibly to MISSISSIPPI depending. If he gets to LYNCHBURG, I will put eyes on.
Keep in mind these are young guys, and they develop unevenly and at their own individual pace.
"Not Feelin So Hot" P-Town Brave ©
January 27th, 2011
12:03 pm
Carroll-
Hey, good deal…I’ll watch out for the story…
Tell him to look for #11
McFann O O
January 27th, 2011
12:04 pm
I thought we got rid of Boscan…
David O'Brien
January 27th, 2011
12:07 pm
Have there been any rumors, or talk in the Braves orginazation about a possible pursuit of Aaron Miles?
He seems like a good fit fot the Braves…He plays Second or Short, a little Third, Outfield, and is a veteran… — Marc
I haven’t heard either way on Miles, but I’d be surprised if Braves are one of the teams involved in pursuit. He’s 34 and really could only could play 2B at this point, and the Braves have several guys on their roster who can play 2B.
Murph
January 27th, 2011
12:07 pm
I made it through page 11 and had to post… I did not make ward. I destroyed him, but I did not make him. DOB can check all the IP’s he wants.
Now on to pages 12-15 to see what else has been said.
bravofan
January 27th, 2011
12:13 pm
Im very intrigued by Ed Lucas!
"Not Feelin So Hot" P-Town Brave ©
January 27th, 2011
12:14 pm
I’m also intrigued by Lucas…
bravofan
January 27th, 2011
12:17 pm
Mets dont expect Santan back until June or All Star game…good news for Braves fans!!
http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/news/story?id=6061691
DAP
January 27th, 2011
12:17 pm
DOB, have you gotten any indication that brooks conrad will or wont be on the 25 man this year? has he carved out his spot, or could he be left off the team out of spring training?
"Possibly Turning The Corner" P-Town Brave ©
January 27th, 2011
12:18 pm
Thought I would change the moniker for the day…
Like I said, not quite as bad as Toma, but gettin there
I mean I could update you via Twitter haha
bravofan
January 27th, 2011
12:18 pm
DAP: its been my understanding that Brooks has an opportunity to earn his spot in spring training. I know im not DOB but I think that is what I have heard.
P'cola Brave
January 27th, 2011
12:24 pm
Felipe Lopez seems like a good fit. Plays all over INF. Hits switch. Would seem like a good fit. Better than in house options and wouldn’t cost much.
David O'Brien
January 27th, 2011
12:28 pm
DAP, Braves say Brooks enters spring much as he did last year, with chance to win a job. Of course, he proved last year what he can do off the bench in the bigs, so that’s got to play into their decision (more than his error woes in the last week of the season).
I’d say there’s a pretty good chance he’s on 25-man roster, but no, it’s not a given.
"Possibly Turning The Corner" P-Town Brave ©
January 27th, 2011
12:30 pm
Has Brooks seen a sports therapist about his fumbling issues?
I heard he fumbled the remote, the car keys, and his wife got angry because he fumbled the potato salad just last week…
DAP
January 27th, 2011
12:30 pm
thanks DOB, and bravofan.
ive been assuming brooks would be on the team, but wondering if it was a given or if hed have to earn it. i hope he makes it on again.
Bobby Hill
January 27th, 2011
12:31 pm
I might point out that like Aaron Miles, Seabass will also be 34 by the time the season starts
Shaun
January 27th, 2011
12:39 pm
I don’t see that Diory Hernandez is anything special and that he would have definitely out-played Gonzalez last season or will in the next season or two. I guess I could see him being a little better but I see no indication that would obviously be the case.
Hernandez hit .279/.333/.386 in the minors. He did hit .300/.344/.398 in his 3 seasons in Triple-A. But his command of the strikezone wasn’t that great.
Not that we should expect Gonzalez to be that much above average offensively again. But I don’t think there’s enough of a gap between the two players to say definitively that Diory should be starting.
richbrave
January 27th, 2011
12:42 pm
McFann O O
January 27th, 2011
12:04 pm
I thought we got rid of Boscan…
I haven’t seen that anywhere McFANN. Where did you pick that up?. He was made eligible for the Rule 5 draft, but to my knowledge, SCOTT DIAMOND was the only player we lost that way.
MikeInFl
January 27th, 2011
12:43 pm
One comment on Law’s prospect rankings…
I know (or at least I read) that the Braves had forbidden Delgado from using his slider, which is supposedly quite good, when he was at A ball – not sure about when he moved up to AA for 40 or so innings. I guess they either consider it an injury-risk pitch or more likely just want these guys to learn to live on their fastball early on.
I’m pretty sure we did the same thing with Hanson, restricting his pitch selection during the early years.
So, it may be that Delgado has another deadly weapon in his arsenal that we haven’t even seen yet…
David O'Brien
January 27th, 2011
12:46 pm
I might point out that like Aaron Miles, Seabass will also be 34 by the time the season starts — Bobby Hill
Seabass (Gonzalez) hit 42
homersdoubles and 23 homers in 2010. Aaron Miles has 93 doubles and 16 homers in 796 career games in eight major league seasons.Bobby Hill
January 27th, 2011
12:48 pm
Despite very few HR’s with Atlanta last year AGon continued to hit doubles. His OBP was well under .300 however. that’s pretty awful. If he can hit 15 HR’s this year I think he’ll be more useful to the team than Diory would because there’s no room for Diory in the top half of the batting lineup. A guy with a high OBP but no power isn’t much use at the bottom of the batting order.
Hillbilly
January 27th, 2011
12:49 pm
The Braves Re-signed Boscan to a minor league deal back in November
http://www.gwinnettdailypost.com/sports/headlines/Braves_re-sign_Boscan_Ramirez_111014284.html
richbrave
January 27th, 2011
12:53 pm
Notable among the missing.
WES ‘OLD MAN RIVER’ TIMMONS is now an OAKLAND A.
And the MARK KOTSEY trade is now complete with the release of LUIS SUMOZA.
Others released by the BRAVES
SAM SIME 3b
EDIGSON MORA p
JAMIE HAYES p
ALBERTO ODREMAN 1b
Do I remember ODREMAN being pick up again?
CHRIS ANDERSON c
CB
January 27th, 2011
12:53 pm
Go Sooners.
Arkansas Transplant
January 27th, 2011
12:56 pm
Murph, you gave up on ward? What a shame!
Shaun,
how can you assume that Doiry would be an upgrade over Agon? He’s shown nothing in the bigs on a consistent basis, not to mention the more they(they being the pitchers) see him the more they will adjust the way they pitch him and he’s already not much of a threat at the plate.
JT
January 27th, 2011
12:57 pm
could someone who is an espn insider post the list of top 100 prospects? thanks!
Shaun
January 27th, 2011
12:58 pm
Bobby Hill, a high OBP is useful anywhere. The problem is it’s no sure thing, given his rather unimpressive command of the strikezone in the minors, that Diory will be a high on-base guy in the majors. Gonzalez will not be a high on-base guy either but with Gonzalez the Braves have power.
A guy with a high OBP is useful anywhere in the lineup because that’s the single most important thing a hitter can be, to repeat a common theme of mine. It’s obviously not the only thing but it’s the starting point of what makes a good hitter. When people say a hitter is good because of a good batting average, what they think they are describing is the hitter’s on-base ability and what they should be looking at instead is OBP. Because OBP and not batting average is what describes how often a hitter succeeds and fails. Many of us know this but sometimes tradition overwhelms truth.
Shaun
January 27th, 2011
1:00 pm
Arkansas Transplant, the problem is I don’t see any post where I assumed Diory would be an upgrade over Gonzalez.
T for Texas
January 27th, 2011
1:01 pm
Go Sooners.
What an awful thing to say in mixed company.
Arkansas Transplant
January 27th, 2011
1:01 pm
My bad, sorry.
Arkansas Transplant
January 27th, 2011
1:02 pm
Miss read the last statement.
Murph
January 27th, 2011
1:04 pm
Murph, you gave up on ward? What a shame!
I’ve got $100 to wager with anyone who believes I’m ward. $100, any and all takers welcome. This is something that can actually be tracked and proven, so bring it on dinglebutts.
Bobby Hill
January 27th, 2011
1:05 pm
Shaun,
I’m a stats guy. You’re preaching to the choir with me. I was being a little flippant with my earier comment. My point was that AGon’s skill set was more useful and Diory’s given the position in the batting order.
My intention in point out that like Aaron Mile A gon will be 34 this year, wasn’t to directly compare Miles and Gonzales. My point was that at 34 Gonzalez is at the point in his career where you expect diminishing performance and not a huge improvement. There’s not many 34 year old SS starting in the bigs.
SoWeGa Fanatic
January 27th, 2011
1:11 pm
“Seabass (Gonzalez) hit 42 homers and 23 homers in 2010″
*********************
DOB, so he actually hit 65 homers? Got it.
Shaun
January 27th, 2011
1:12 pm
Bobby Hill, but Gonzalez is more talented than Miles so if both are 34 and in a decline phase, we’d expect Gonzalez to be better.
I think Gonzalez is probably the safer bet (over Diory) regardless of position in the batting order.
bravofan
January 27th, 2011
1:17 pm
Why did we start calling gonzalez seabass??
ncscoots
January 27th, 2011
1:19 pm
A guy with a high OBP is useful anywhere in the lineup because that’s the single most important thing a hitter can be, to repeat a common theme of mine.
Shaun, that is not a “theme”, LOL. A “theme” consists of many different notes woven into a fabric or pattern, and you’re as one-note on OBP as Robert is on 6.
Ease® in Woodstock
January 27th, 2011
1:22 pm
Murph – You have been vindicated by my IT dept…For you to be ward, you would need to be running to and from one WiFi to another and be lightning fast about it. Trouble is, does Montana have WiFi yet, that is what is not believable…IMO.
Shaun
January 27th, 2011
1:25 pm
Here’s the problem with Alex Gonzalez. His career on-base is .294. Last year his on-base was .294. Yes, he hit 23 homers. Yes, he hit 42 doubles. Yes, he slugged .447. Those are all fine and dandy but when you look at his season in total, he made outs more often than all but three regular major league shortstops. When he didn’t make outs, it’s true that he got a lot of extra base hits. But how much does that truly help when the guy is making outs 7 out of every 10 times he comes up? I’m not arguing that this means Diory is clearly the better option. But Gonzalez had a season that is being overrated by many.
David O'Brien
January 27th, 2011
1:25 pm
For nuts-and-bolts, hardcore fans who care about arbitration process and other such inside-baseball stuff, check out this Baseball Prospectus podcast with Braves official John Coppolella, who is Wren’s stats guru and numbers-cruncher. And a bonafied seamhead. He knows his stuff, to say the least.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12790
T for Texas
January 27th, 2011
1:31 pm
Why did we start calling gonzalez seabass??
Marlins teammates gave him that nickname. Also it is fastest way to bring up his player page on B-R.com
fleming
January 27th, 2011
1:38 pm
Shaun
OBP is important but it’s not the be all end all you make it out to be. For example-
Player 1 is a Frenchy type and wouldn’t know a wolk if he seen one but in 100 at bats gets 30 hits including 7 doubles and 1 homer. OBP .300
Player 2 is patient and gets 15 singles and 15 walks. .300 OPB
If OBP were be all end all then you could say the playres were equal yet player 1 accounted for 10 more bases than player 2 directly plus all the extra bases gained by the people on base ahead of him.
MikeInFl
January 27th, 2011
1:42 pm
Gonzalez’ RC27 (runs created per game by a team made up of all seabasses) was 4.26, which placed him 10th among 22 shortstops who qualified for the batting title.
Not suggesting that this is the ultimate stat, but I think it points out that OBP may be a bit overrated in some people’s view of the world – especially among low-end hitters.
Obviously, his low OBP is less than desirable, and if we’re comparing it to guys with a .360 OBP he falls well short. But I’ll take his .294 with some pop over a slap hitter with a more “acceptable” .330 obp and a .340 slugging pct. Neither is gonna do a whole lot for you, but at least there is the ability to contribute some meaningful run-scoring once in a while.
Just Pat
January 27th, 2011
1:46 pm
I, too, was wondering about the Seabass reference(s) but it’s fine with me. My absolute fav fish from the ocean to eat…..even over and above grouper.
Shaun
January 27th, 2011
1:47 pm
fleming, I never said it’s the “be all, end all.” It’s the starting point and it’s necessary for a player to post a good OBP relative to others in order to be a good offensive player. Obviously, a player needs more that just on-base ability to be considered better than other players.
Pujols isn’t great only because he gets on base often. He’s great because he gets on base often and he also gains a ton of bases with his power (plus he’s a good if not great defensive firstbaseman and a solid baserunner for a guy of his size).
On-base is the starting point because it’s the true measure of success and failure of a hitter. You’ve heard people talk about good hitters fail 7 out of 10 times, etc. What they really think they are doing is pointing out good hitter’s on-base ability because on-base is the true measure of whether a hitter makes an outs or succeeds (gets on). A more accurate way to phrase it is that generally speaking throughout baseball history good hitters fail 6 out of 10 times (a .400 on-base).
Again, that’s not the be all, end all and I never said it was. A .400 on-base is great and all and it’s necessary for greatness from a hitter’s standpoint. But a hitter needs more than a .400 on-base alone to be great.
Arkansas Transplant
January 27th, 2011
1:47 pm
What’s the comparisons between AGon and the rest of the leagues SS in RISP? Just wondering. Seems he’s usually pretty good at getting those big hits when you need them.
Arkansas Transplant
January 27th, 2011
1:54 pm
Shaun
January 27th, 2011
1:47 pm
Wasn’t that down right exhausting?
Shaun
January 27th, 2011
1:56 pm
MikeInFl, I think that’s fairly appropriate to say Gonzalez was roughly an average offensive shortstop, as Runs Created indicates. But given his slugging, if he has posted a more respectable on-base, he would have been up there with the best offensive shortstops in the game in 2010.
I think on-base gets a bad rap and people criticize me for bringing it up because there is this misconception that some think it’s the be all, end all. But no one claims it’s the be all, end all. What we claim is that if a player doesn’t post a respectable on-base, it’s tough for him to have much value.
David O'Brien
January 27th, 2011
1:59 pm
MikeInFL: Great points at 1:42, my friend.
Bobby Hill
January 27th, 2011
2:00 pm
Shaun, I think we’re saying the say thing. You’re just better at articulating it I guess.
I mentioned AGon’s age because DOB said that at 34 Aaron Miles was really only capable of playing 2B, and not SS. Well, if Seabass is also 34, what does that mean about his ability to play SS? He could beo fine for a fews more years, lbut there’s a very real chance that it could go the other way.
David O'Brien
January 27th, 2011
2:00 pm
T for Texas: Kevin Millar gave him the nickname while they were in Double-A (Marlins) together, because of the frown that he always wore, which looked (to Millar) like a seabass.
David O'Brien
January 27th, 2011
2:01 pm
But Gonzalez had a season that is being overrated by many. — Shaun
True, but a season also quite underrated by many.
David O'Brien
January 27th, 2011
2:05 pm
I mentioned AGon’s age because DOB said that at 34 Aaron Miles was really only capable of playing 2B, and not SS. Well, if Seabass is also 34, what does that mean about his ability to play SS? — Bobby Hill
It means absolutely nothing about Gonzalez’s ability to play SS. One has nothing to do with the other. Or do you think every player declines at the same rate, and has the same abilities to play a primary position? If so, why?
I stated that, from what I’m told by those of the talent evaluator/scout ilk, Aaron Miles can really only play 2B at a major league level now, and the Braves have others on their roster who can play 2B. And that is all I said.
"Possibly Turning The Corner" P-Town Brave ©
January 27th, 2011
2:11 pm
DOB-
Only thing I think of when I hear that is Dumb & Dumber…
“Alright, which one of you is the dead man that threw the salt shaker!”
raleighbravefan
January 27th, 2011
2:12 pm
Don – (the “drive-by poster” who has, no doubt, disappeared) It’s not just fans and writers/reporters who think Bobby was one of the best all time. More significant, its other managers, GMs, coaches and players, both past and present, who believe that (almost universally). But, of course, you and Robert (and a few others with limited knowledge) know so much more than these career baseball professionals.
McFann O O
January 27th, 2011
2:15 pm
richbrave Where did you pick that up?
I forget…thought I saw something about it at the end of the season, like they let him go or something. And I seem to remember Lew saying something about it being a bummer that they lost their “designated Spring Training catcher”, which is Boscan…but I could totally be misremembering—happens all the time.
I hope Boscan’s not gone, though, ’cause, well, it’s like (I thought) Lew said—he’s our Spring Training catcher!
And I like him.
Hillbilly
January 27th, 2011
2:17 pm
McFann,
See my 12:49 post.
flange1
January 27th, 2011
2:18 pm
MikinFl,
I saw the article about Delgado too that suggests the Braves told him not to use the slider. My understanding is that he will be using it in 2011.
That would change what KLAW had to say about Delgado being a 2 pitch (fastball and change guy).
While I have not seen Delgado in person yet (hope to change that this year), he is the guy that I think is the sleeper in the bunch. I hope the Braves keep him.
ward
January 27th, 2011
2:19 pm
Hello every one! Just thought I would drop In a little.I like Lucas as the answer to short stop this year for our back, and What about Vlad to play the corners incase Prado or Heyward get hurt. I’m sure Vlad could play left if needed.
Shaun
January 27th, 2011
2:20 pm
Arkansas Transplant, Gonzalez’s numbers with RISP are more or less the same as his career numbers.
Also, not to pick on you because you aren’t the only one guilty of this, but why is getting a hit with runners in scoring position the only time a hit is considered a “big hit” when the team “needs” it? I mean, seems pretty important if a guy if leading off an inning, for example, to not put his team in a hole by making that first out. Or when a guy is on first and not in scoring position, is that a key situation to get a hit? Often our conception of “clutch” doesn’t encompass all “big” or true “clutch” situations. That’s a big reason why I’m not a big fan of putting too much weight in what some would consider “clutch” stats. There are many situations that are just as big but don’t show up in the traditional “clutch” categories.
T for Texas
January 27th, 2011
2:20 pm
Kevin Millar gave him the nickname
Kevin Millar seems like a funny guy. And it’s an appropriate nickname when you look at A-Gon frown.
McFann O O
January 27th, 2011
2:21 pm
Thanks, Hillbilly! Sorry I missed that before.
Sweet, so he’ll be at Spring Training. What good is Spring Training without pouting over him playing the televised games instead of BMac?
McFann O O
January 27th, 2011
2:22 pm
Ward???
[faint]…
Just Pat
January 27th, 2011
2:23 pm
McFann
Thanks for the link to your photos. My daughter (also in Gwinnett where we USED to live) sent some but not quite as impressive as yours. And I thought I was the only one who named my birds!
ward
January 27th, 2011
2:23 pm
I think Lucas could be our answer to back up. Why trade if we don’t have to……Sign Vlad….
ward
January 27th, 2011
2:25 pm
You guy’s can’t kill a ghost!!!!!!!HA,HA, HA.
ncscoots
January 27th, 2011
2:25 pm
Often our conception of “clutch” doesn’t encompass all “big” or true “clutch” situations. That’s a big reason why I’m not a big fan of putting too much weight in what some would consider “clutch” stats.
Are you also not a big believer in leverage?
jeffrey d
January 27th, 2011
2:26 pm
ward! Good to hear from you buddy
ward
January 27th, 2011
2:27 pm
Jeffreyd: What do you think about Vlad being a Brave?I’m great!
ward
January 27th, 2011
2:29 pm
Vlad’s value has been dropping lately, and steadly…..
flange1
January 27th, 2011
2:31 pm
Please let’s not talk about clutch again!
David O'Brien
January 27th, 2011
2:31 pm
T for Texas: Millar is definitely one of the funniest guys and most colorful characters on any of the teams I’ve covered. Hilarious.
raleighbravefan
January 27th, 2011
2:32 pm
For all the “glass half (or more) empty crowd – injuries, unexpectedly poor performance by some individuals and othe factors can happen to any team any year (i.e. see Braves 2008, Phillies 2010, Mets almost every year). that said, I have a few thoughts (hard for many to believe):
- AG is not nearly as bad as many think, and will likely have a decent year (no allstar, but that’s fine)
- FF has shown the ability to be AT LEAST above average on defense, and many expect him to be at least an above average hitter.
- No one knows how Chipper will be until he actually plays for a while, but I believe the odds are at least even that he will make significant positive contributions to this team, and have no reason to expect less than 100-120 games out of him until proven differently.
- I fully expect JJ to come back strong, and expect a good year out of Lowe. I expect Hanson to take it to the next level. I expect the entire pitching staff (including bullpen) to be strong.
- I expect McLouth to be improved, which won’t take much. If not, we have several other options, and expect at least adequate play in CF.
- McCann, Heyward, Uggla, and Prado, will be allstar caliber.
- Bench, even without Omar, will be very good.
I’m very excited about this team. Could it be better with a larger budget – of course. Will we have more than our share of injuries – no one knows. Let’s at least play the games before we get too down on these guys. Who knows? The haters an pessimists just may have nothing to complain about this season (NAH! They’ll invent something if they have to).
McFann O O
January 27th, 2011
2:32 pm
You’re welcome, Just Pat! (And thanks!) Glad you enjoyed them!
And I thought I was the only one who named my birds!
Haha! Oh, no.
What kind of birds have you given names to? As you might be able to tell from the photos (and many of my comments), my favorite birds are Wrens! I have some more photos here that I’m sure you’d enjoy: It’s a Carolina Wren nest we had in 2005—Jenny Girl was the mother; she was first bird I ever trained to eat out of my hand, which she did almost every day from February 18th, 2004 to November 21st, 2007. She and her mate, Boogity, had 3 nests in our yard—one in 2004, and 2 in 2005. She didn’t care how close I got to the Babies, but she didn’t like me to stay too long. 
Anyway, here’s the start of the gallery. There are quite a few photos…and they’re probably my most treasured.
Arkansas Transplant
January 27th, 2011
2:33 pm
Shaun,
Your right, RISP really doesn’t mean anything to someone that’s leading off every inning but it does indicate a players ability or tendencies to be more focused in scoring opportunities. Point in truth would be looking at Conrad last year, innings 1 thru 6 he was awful at the plate but in those last 3 innings he was quite good. I’m just pointing that out to give some type of comparison as to how a particular player approaches different at bats.
Shaun
January 27th, 2011
2:33 pm
ncscoots, I think looking at leverage is more useful because you are actually looking at how much a player increased his teams odds of winning the game.
Also, the evidence seems to suggest that a player being “clutch,” even when you are looking at leverage, is really not a skill.
According to fangraphs: “Clutch does a good job of describing the past, but it does very little towards predicting the future. Simply because one player was clutch at one point does not mean they will continue to perform well in high-leverage situations. For example, here’s Alex Rodriguez’s last five years of Clutch scores (most recent to least recent): 1.44, 0.95, -3.17, 0.97, -1.40. No continuity at all.”
raleighbravefan
January 27th, 2011
2:34 pm
Did any of you see Vlad (try to) play the field in the world series?
ward
January 27th, 2011
2:35 pm
Dob: Could we pick up Cantu later or next year?
Just Pat
January 27th, 2011
2:35 pm
Raleigh
I agree with your post…..ESPECIALLY the last two sentences!
ward
January 27th, 2011
2:36 pm
Yeah,but the dude can hit?
ward
January 27th, 2011
2:38 pm
I know the Cantu trade is dead, but could he end up a Brave by the All Star break?Next year if possible?
DAP
January 27th, 2011
2:38 pm
ralieghbravesfan, a gonzalez HAS to slug to prevent being terrible. when you have a guy with an OBP under .300, its usually not to hard to make an argument that he shouldnt be playing major league baseball. hes got to slug at LEAST .400 (which isnt easy when youre making outs 70% of the time) to keep from being a black hole. last year he slugged .447, some hopefully he can stay well above .400.
raleighbravefan
January 27th, 2011
2:39 pm
Pat – Thanks for the support.
Conrad
January 27th, 2011
2:41 pm
if the braves runs produced were that good with him then just imagine how good they can be without him, I’m sure he is a great person but not a good batting coach, should have kept Hubbard around….
ncscoots
January 27th, 2011
2:42 pm
For example, here’s Alex Rodriguez’s last five years of Clutch scores (most recent to least recent): 1.44, 0.95, -3.17, 0.97, -1.40. No continuity at all.”
Depends on the size of the standard deviation inherent in the data. “No continuity at all” applies to every baseball stat in the universe unless some context for deviation is given. Nobody hits their career average year after year, but all of us look at the “average” as a reasonable indicator.
But if a player is within a standard deviation (or even two) of his norms over time, that is indeed “continuity”. I frankly don’t know if that applies to “clutch” or not, but my guess is that there is more standard-deviation “continuity” than you might think.
ward
January 27th, 2011
2:43 pm
I think Jerry Royster would be an excellent choice for the Braves first base coach.
raleighbravefan
January 27th, 2011
2:44 pm
DAP – I don’t agree that a SS has to hit a bunch, and I expect him to be overage on offense, and a little better than average on defense. That’s only MY expectation, but time will tell. However, accepting your premis that he is below average, how many teams (even very good ones with big payrolls) don’t have 1 or 2 players that are not as strong as you would like. I like our TEAM as a whole, but agree with DOB that AG is underrated by many.
Hillbilly
January 27th, 2011
2:46 pm
Bowman has some caravan pics up on twitter. Nate McLouth’s hair is inexplicable. I’m lost for words.
ward
January 27th, 2011
2:46 pm
so everyone has figured it out that I’m Murph?
braveslifer
January 27th, 2011
2:46 pm
Keith Law’s ranking of the top ten Braves Prospects. Number in () shows where they rank in the top 100.
Atlanta Braves
1. Julio Teheran, RHP (6)
2. Freddie Freeman, 1B (43)
3. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP (47)
4. Randall Delgado, RHP (50)
5. Mike Minor, LHP (61)
6. Craig Kimbrel, RHP
7. Carlos Perez, LHP
8. Matt Lipka, SS
9. Edward Salcedo, SS
10. Cristian Bethancourt, C
Arkansas Transplant
January 27th, 2011
2:47 pm
I haven’t seen his hair yet, I’ll have to take a look.
Shaun
January 27th, 2011
2:49 pm
Arkansas Transplant, there is no evidence that performing well in the clutch or high-leverage situations is a repeatable skill. If a player performs well or poorly in the clutch, it’s just something that happens due to randomness. It’s like if a guy gets more hits on Tuesdays than on other days or something.
Look at Brooks Conrad. In low leverage situations he’s more or less performed like he has overall. In medium leverage situations, he’s been a lot worse than his norm. In high leverage situations he’s performed a lot better than his overall numbers. So if he is more focused and that’s the explanation, why is he less focused in medium-leverage situations than in low-leverage situations?
It’s fine to give players credit for coming through in the clutch or high-leverage situations. But there is very little to no evidence that coming through in the clutch is something a player intentionally does or has any more control over than coming through in other situations.
Aside from the data and evidence, it’s also counter-intuitive to think a player would focus more or have more control over what he did in clutch or high-leverage situations. I mean, a player is in the majors and millions of dollars could ride on every plate appearance plus hundreds of thousands if not millions of people are watching. Plus there are hundreds of players below him that would kill for his job.
Hillbilly
January 27th, 2011
2:49 pm
I haven’t seen his hair yet, I’ll have to take a look.
AT,
Good luck. Don’t look directly at it’s core without eye protection.
ward
January 27th, 2011
2:49 pm
Very funny, some one stop using my name,and Murph that wasnt me that wrote that about you at 2:46pm……
DAP
January 27th, 2011
2:50 pm
ralieghbravesfan I don’t agree that a SS has to hit a bunch,
yeah, thats fine. i think you want to have your worst position player OPSing above .700, at least, and thats only if they play good defense.
how many teams (even very good ones with big payrolls) don’t have 1 or 2 players that are not as strong as you would like.
almost every team does, but the point is, those players hurt the team overall, instead of improving the team, or keeping it the same.
ward
January 27th, 2011
2:52 pm
I have atracking devise who ever uses my name, and I have friends who are cops!
Beach Boy Brain Wilson
January 27th, 2011
2:52 pm
help me Rhonda!