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6,221 comments Add your comment
Dadgum......
December 14th, 2010
10:37 am
N8……Bingo! Ding ding ding on your 10:11 post. The sense of urgency just increased for Wren to find a CF. I’m guessing that Mather/Hinske can hold down a 4th outfield spot. Frankly I’m not counting on Chipper having a big impact year at all. I have all but added him to my all-Favre team.
Wren has to be sitting there thinking he can’t bank on Chipper. He has to envision Prado playing a huge amount of time at third. He can’t bank on a projected outfield of Shafer/McLouth eventhough they may pan out. Wren has to make a move to solidify the outfield and it is doubtful he can wait until late in ST to acquire someone.
raleighbravefan
December 14th, 2010
10:39 am
To be the best, you have to beat the best. Reguardless of payroll, we will be competitive in 2011 and forseeable future. Playoffs are never guaranteed (ask Red Sox and Cardinals, for example). Lets go out and get ‘er done on the field.
Injuries often have as much effect as talent.Time will tell. GO BRAVES!
N8
December 14th, 2010
10:41 am
scoots, just saw your 10:21, see my previous post for my opinion on that.
Maddux also pitched 267 innings. Let me make sure you understand that. In 4 more starts than Chuck, he pitched 75 more innings.
Too many people forget just how often Maddux went 7+ innings.
Lee and Halladay are both innings eaters. That’s huge when people are trying to say the Phils bullpen is a weakness.
If for some reason, Kimbrel and Venters fail as closers? We’re in serious trouble, because we don’t have the horses to go 8 innings on a regular basis. The Phillies have 2 of them.
Combined in 2010, Lee and Halladay made 61 stars, totaled 462 IP. In 28 starts, Lee lasted LESS than 7 innings 6 times. In 33 starts, Halladay lasted LESS than 7 innings in 5 starts.
Let me rephrase that. In 2010 Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay combined to make 50 starts in which they went 7+ innings.
Hudson (20 times), Lowe (8 times), Hansnon (11 times), Minor (0 times), Jurrjens (7 times), all combined to make 46 starts in which they pitched 7+ innings.
Add in Oswalt (17 times) and Hamels (19 times), and the Phillies “Big 4″ combined to make 86 starts last 7+ innings.
Like I said. We have the better bullpen, but we NEED to have the better bullpen. The Phillies have 4 Aces that are also work-horses in their rotation. We have one guy (Hudson) that remotely can be considered a work-horse.
TDub
December 14th, 2010
10:41 am
From Buster Olney today:
Philadelphia will go into 2011 as the clear favorite to win the National League because of the extraordinary resumes within the Phillies’ rotation, and the depth of their lineup. Roy Halladay is the reigning Cy Young Award winner in the NL; Lee allowed just 18 walks while striking out 185 last year; Cole Hamels posted a 3.06 ERA last year while striking out 211 in 208.2 innings; and Roy Oswalt went 7-1 with a 1.74 ERA after being traded to the Phillies last season. On paper, it’s the best rotation we’ve seen in about 20 years.
On paper.
In the summer of 1989, the Mets traded a five-player package to the Minnesota Twins for Frank Viola to create what looked to be an unstoppable rotation with six-man depth: Dwight Gooden, David Cone, Viola, Ron Darling, Sid Fernandez and Bobby Ojeda.
But Mets won only 87 games that year, 91 games the next year, and the greatest rotation anybody had ever seen at that time never appeared in the playoffs.
The Phillies already are a team heavily invested in older players, and they’ve devoted $120 million to a 32-year-old pitcher who doesn’t really throw that hard. “He’s got great control, but he doesn’t have an out pitch,” one scout said in the lobby of the winter meetings last week. “That’s got to scare you when you’re talking about a long-term deal.”
It scared some of the folks within the Rangers’ organization; the name Barry Zito was brought up in at least one internal conversation. It was even a little scary to the Yankees, in spite of their resources, because the team is already extended with players who will become ancient while making big dollars.
But Lee and Halladay are workers who will give themselves as much chance as possible to remain productive into their late 30s, and for the immediate future, that could be good enough. The Giants are in the process of designing their championship rings, but the Phillies will be viewed as the team to beat in the NL in 2011.
Efrim
December 14th, 2010
10:42 am
Maybe the Phillies will use the cost savings from Blanton and trade for Greinke……
[covers his head and ducks]
abwright
December 14th, 2010
10:45 am
I felt that the Braves would be better (slightly) than the Phils with the addition of Dan Uggla and the subtraction of Jayson Werth. When the 2009 Braves had Adam Laroche on fire and the 2010 Braves had Troy Glaus on fire, they were one of the most potent offenses in the league, despite their bottom of the order problems. With Dan Uggla, the Braves should have that HR threat for 162 games, instead of 40-60 games.
With the addition of Lee, the Phils are clearly the better team. They probably got 10-12 wins better than in 2010, even after Werth is subtracted from the team.
But, we need to wait to see if they have to shed contracts to make payroll room for Lee or if they have to make other adjustments because they run short of cash. If the Phils have to trade Blanton, Ibanez, and some other folks, then that +10 wins will start to drift downwards.
I think they’ll still be the favorites to win the East after those moves. But, they’re going to have to come back to the pack a little to afford Lee.
Phils have basically increased payroll, improved pitching, and reduced their offense.
Braves have kept payroll about the same, improved pitching (lose Saito, Dunn, and Wagner, add Kimbrel and Jurrjens), and improved offense (lose Infante, add Uggla).
If Chipper can’t answer the bell, the Braves will have the payroll to improve further (perhaps waiting til the trade deadline). If Chipper comes back to some semblance of early 2009, Braves will be better offensively than they were in 2010.
Jurrjens, Chipper, and Kimbrel seem to be the only question marks. Even if McLouth comes back to his norms, he’s not going to be a difference maker.
beekay
December 14th, 2010
10:45 am
How many say yes to a trade of Dlowe to the Yanks for Gardner? If so who would be your choice for the 5th starter Beachy,Pavano,Francis etc…..we might save 30 mill over 2 years but we lose out on possible 200 innings, 15 wins and a 4 ERA
Wow...
December 14th, 2010
10:46 am
The Braves have the better bullpen? I guess if Kimbrel doesn’t regress any and Venters arm doesn’t fall off from pitching so much in ‘10.
The Braves bullpen has a lot of question marks also.
Mixxo
December 14th, 2010
10:47 am
Oh yeah babe…
http://www.theopenjam.net/attachment.php?attachmentid=4122&d=1292334658
LongtimeBravesfan
December 14th, 2010
10:48 am
I have serious doubts that the Phillies have the best rotation in the NL. The Giants top four of Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and Bumgarner is comparable. And Zito is probably the best # 5 any team has. Also, the Giants’ rotation (other than Zito) is comparatively young and likely to get better. The Phillies’ rotation (other than Hamels) is comparatively old and likely to decline.
McKee
December 14th, 2010
10:48 am
What everyone needs to realize is that we can b!tch and moan all we want about how unfair it is that the Phillies can spend all this money. The bottom line is that the Phillies sell out EVERY NIGHT!!!! That is a major factor in their payroll. The Phillies are giving back to their fans because the fans show their support. As fans, we can deny it until we are blue in the face that this is not the case, but the reality is if fans show up to the games and show their support for the Braves, things may be a little different in Atlanta. Until then, we can continue to watch free agents sign with other teams while Braves settle for second tier players.
TennesseePaul
December 14th, 2010
10:50 am
Sheeeeesh. Just went back and checked my algorithms. Running sums are great when used properly.
But, for correction’s sake:
Scoots– Over the last four years the Phillie pitchers (Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels, and Lee) have averaged a total of 838 innings pitched a season.
And as to the early comparison:
1993 Braves Smoltz, Maddux, Glavine, Avery
Player_ERA+_WHIP
SAvery 138 1.160
Maddux 172 1.049
Smoltz 112 1.264
Glavin 127 1.362
Total_ 134 1.205
Last four years of the Phillies new rotation. It’s pretty close so within the realm of possibility.
Player_ERA+_WHIP
Hallad 147 1.112
Hamels 125 1.165
Oswalt 124 1.191
C__Lee 125 1.173
Total_ 132 1.158
RemoW
December 14th, 2010
10:51 am
Murph: You are correct. He has posted 2 season of sub 3 era. He is solid #2 or #3 starter who is 32. What we should recognize is that Philly now has a number of long term contracts on older players. It will affect their ability to make moves later.
Halladay is an ace. But the rest, IMO, are solid starting pitchers that will be occasionally great.
Greg in TN
December 14th, 2010
10:52 am
Morning denizens…
Is it me, or was the bitter cold this morning a little bit more bitter with the news of Cliff Lee signing at a locale very few expected? Not just me, I am sure of it.
Hey, Kudos to the enemy for the signing. That’s one of those “out of nowhere” kind of deals that the Braves have done at times in the past, and now it feels deflating being on the other side of that equation. It happens.
No question they’re up front and center as the team to beat, not only in the division, not only in the senior circuit, but perhaps the team to beat in baseball period. Is it too early to call them the Lil Yankees?
The groundwork to hoist a Commissioner’s Trophy (can’t we get a better name for that thing, by the way? NFL has the Lombardi Trophy, there’s the Stanley Cup in the NHL and the O’Brien Trophy in the NBA (after Larry, not the Notorious One)) is laid at this time of year, however still got to run through the 162 game gauntlet beginning in April.
My real concern isn’t as much as the amount of talent coming into the Phillies right now as much as the amount of talent being retained in the NL East. Werth just moved to the Beltway, which also has Strasburg on the mend, Zimmerman at third and Bryce Harper on the fast track to join them all. The Phillies now have as deep a starting rotation as there ever has been in the history of the game. I believe the appointment of Sandy Alderson as the Mets new GM bolstered their front office. The Nats will be even tougher next year after the Braves dropped 10 of 18 to them and I wonder how much more cash the Marlins will have once they move into their new park on the site of the old Orange Bowl.
I don’t see a move the Braves make at this point that makes much sense to me. I’m not a big fan of making a move just to make a move and the Braves just don’t do that.
This does put the franchise and it’s owner even more in the spotlight because of the amount of cash being thrown around by division rivals at this point and in the future and I’ll be interested to see if Liberty’s plans might change now that it seems more and more that the Phillies, Mets and Nationals have cash and begin pushing the payroll envelope toward levels only the Yankees had the temerity to reach.
N8
December 14th, 2010
10:52 am
Wow… the Braves bullpen is clearly stacked with better (proven) arms. Sure the “arm fall off” factor is there (thanks Bobby).
But O’Flaherty is proven. Moylan is proven. Venters is fine. Kimbrel “should” be fine. Not sure which one will close (probably both). Add to that there is more arms along the way.
Might even end up with a Wainwright type situation where a kid like Teheran comes up later in the year and in order to save innings on his arm, perhaps him and/or Delgado end up in a stretch run bullpen.
Whoever between Beachy and Minor end up not being the 5th starter (or Christian Martinez) would be the long man/spot starter.
So yes. On paper, based on last year’s numbers and reasonable predictions (like I’m doing with your rotation), the Braves bullpen is better.
O.J.
December 14th, 2010
10:52 am
beekay, you would not only need a 5th starter but a 2nd starter as well.
rammerjammer
December 14th, 2010
10:53 am
That rotation likely insures no extended losing streaks and the knowledge that you’re rarely out of a game. I remember feeling that way in the Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz days.
Still, as a Braves fan, I welcome the gauntlet Philadelphia has thrown down. Competition brings out the best, makes for heightened excitement throughout the season.
Betcha the Braves players are excited, too. An AL East-type environment is welcome! Imagine the build-up to Hudson v. Halladay, Hanson v. Lee, Jurrjens v. Hamels, Lowe v. Oswalt.
That’s good stuff.
abwright
December 14th, 2010
10:53 am
Frank Wren does not need to make a “panic move.” Braves are still the second best team in the NL East (on paper). That will be good enough to compete throughout the 1st half of 2011.
Folks need to wait to see how things shake out when the Phils unload payroll (if they do).
If Chipper and McLouth come back in ST, Braves will be very good. If not, then there’s plenty of time to fix the problem before the Phils run away with the division. Even then, there’s still the Wild Card.
The Mets, Nats, and Marlins are the teams that need to panic.
Efrim
December 14th, 2010
10:53 am
The Braves have the better bullpen? I guess if Kimbrel doesn’t regress any and Venters arm doesn’t fall off from pitching so much in ‘10.
I think it’s optimistic to expect the Braves pen to be as good as it was last year, and I don’t think it’s far and away better than the Phillies. Braves upgrades will come on the offensive side of things. They should be improved from a SLG% standpoint. They led the league in OBP though, so we’ll see if that carries over.
TennesseePaul
December 14th, 2010
10:55 am
N8: Whoever between Beachy and Minor end up not being the 5th starter
I could see Beachy in this roll more than Minor. Beachy has significant Bullpen experience in the minors.
Frank from KS (now living in CO)
December 14th, 2010
10:55 am
N8
Don’t forget about Jamie *I ain’t 80 years old yet* Moyer….who isn’t going to be on the Phils staff next season. The Phils lose one left-hander and just to bring in another..(LOL)
N8
December 14th, 2010
10:56 am
I love all the people calling Cliff Lee a solid #2 starter. Had the Braves been the surprise team that signed him, this blog would be lighting up with talk of our new “Ace”.
Homerism at it’s finest. I love it.
Reminds me of the post-season chatter….. “That Buster Posey is good, but he can’t hold Jason Heyward’s jock strap. No chance in hell he wins the NL ROY, blah, blah blah!!!
Nobody is ever as good as “our” guy, and if Jesus Christ was signed to play CF for a division rival he’d be a “bum” with only a season or two of productivity under his belt….. nothing to worry about.
I love it.
MikeInFl
December 14th, 2010
10:58 am
With the addition of Lee, the Phils are clearly the better team. They probably got 10-12 wins better than in 2010, even after Werth is subtracted from the team.
Don’t know how you arrived at that number, ab.
Lee was a 7.1-win pitcher in 2010. Blanton was a 1.9 win pitcher. So, net gain there of 5.2 wins.
Werth was a 5.0-win hitter. Replace him with a rookie/platoon, let’s call it 3 wins (which is pretty generous); there’s a net loss of 2 wins.
So those 2 moves alone might create 3-4 wins.
Of course it could be more, and it could be less. But that’s what the stats indicate, as far as those two major transactions go.
Efrim
December 14th, 2010
10:58 am
I love all the people calling Cliff Lee a solid #2 starter. Had the Braves been the surprise team that signed him, this blog would be lighting up with talk of our new “Ace”.
Homerism at it’s finest. I love it.
Agreed. They have three aces, imo. And Oswalt is a very good #2 starter or 1A, whatever you wan to call him.
TennesseePaul
December 14th, 2010
10:59 am
It’s nice to look out at the landscape of Hot Stove Rumors and find that the last remaining big time free agent just signed, and instead of closing up the rumor mill, blew it wide open.
Dadgum......
December 14th, 2010
11:00 am
Beekay….I’m taking Beachy over Minor as my 5th starter. Heck truth be told I have Beachy ranked higher than JJ. We don’t need Pavano.
N8
December 14th, 2010
11:01 am
Efrim, I don’t think it’s far and away better than the Phillies pen either. It’s just better.
But as I’ve stated, the Phillies starters being work-horses, pretty much diminishes that slight advantage. Phillies basically need to find one reliable closer and one setup man.
Braves NEED to have 3-5 arms down there that they can count on 4-5 days a week. The more you use them, the more they are exposed and thus the more likely the occasional melt-down.
Simple math when you think about it.
I worry a little bit about our OBP going down a tad. Glaus had decent OBP, Chipper as well and Infante got on base a lot. I agree, the SLG should go up. But will there be anybody on base to score when those guys are slugging?
Efrim
December 14th, 2010
11:01 am
Braves shouldn’t make a move just to make a move. It would still be wise to get a young CF, as Wren was trying to do for Cain. I thought this was interesting from the most hated man on the blog(Keith Law):
The Yankees and Rangers are left looking for Plan B’s that probably don’t exist. The Rangers don’t line up well for a Zack Greinke deal, and the Yankees line up for one only if the Royals think any of those Yankees catching prospects can actually catch. Carl Pavano is the best remaining free-agent starter but not a great substitute for Lee in Texas, and I feel fairly confident the Yankees won’t be making him an offer. If the Blue Jays had held Shaun Marcum another week, could they have gotten more from either of these clubs than they got from Milwaukee? What if the Dodgers put Chad Billingsley on the market? If you’re Florida, don’t you at least entertain offers on Josh Johnson? Oddly, there’s no team well-positioned to take advantage of either the Yankees’ or Rangers’ desperation here, nor is there a free agent ready to be overpaid because one of those clubs had money budgeted for Lee and decides to spend it elsewhere.
There’s an opportunity here for a GM with a pitcher he’s willing to move and the fearlessness to move him when no one expects it.
O.J.
December 14th, 2010
11:02 am
Dadgum…… , how on earth do you have a pitcher who was never a top ranked prospect higher than JJ?
Thats like saying John Burkett was better than Maddux
Efrim
December 14th, 2010
11:03 am
It’s nice to look out at the landscape of Hot Stove Rumors and find that the last remaining big time free agent just signed, and instead of closing up the rumor mill, blew it wide open.
Agreed. I think it’s awesome, and to Law’s point, there is an opportunity for a GM to make a move now that he didn’t think was feasible before.
MikeInFl
December 14th, 2010
11:03 am
That said, I certainly acknowledge the Phils are the “team to beat.” That’s just not the end of the world, IMO. We’ve got a lot of young talent that, if it plays to potential, will make us very good.
Where the Phillies really got tough is when playoff time rolls around. But we saw this year that these guys can be beat, even in the post-season.
N8
December 14th, 2010
11:03 am
MikeInFl Gotta factor in Oswalt for around 30 starts instead of the 12 that he made after the trade.
I too think the Phillies will be around 5-10 wins better. I think they’ll eclipse the 100 win plateau and possible win 103 or 104 games. Like another poster stated, their rotation will simply prevent any long losing streaks. 4 “stoppers” in that rotation.
abwright
December 14th, 2010
11:04 am
MikeInFl, December 14th, 2010, 10:58 am … “Don’t know how you arrived at that number, ab.”
I got it the old-fashioned way, … I pulled it out of my butt.
My point was that +Lee and -Werth would not result in +70 wins, as so many seem to think it would.
My final total, -Blanton, of +6 wins is pretty close to your guess of +4 wins. And who knows what will happen if the Phils have to unload both Blanton and Ibanez.
What little point I was trying to make was that the Phils got better, just not so much better that they will win all 162.
RemoW
December 14th, 2010
11:04 am
Found this on espn.
Best Career ERA Starter at Citizens Banks Park (minimum 5 starts)
Jair Jurrjens 1.87
Josh Johnson 1.99
Roy Oswalt 2.10
Mike Hampton 2.21
Roy Halladay 2.21
Cliff Lee 2.52
Just want to point out that #1 is a Brave.
Efrim
December 14th, 2010
11:05 am
But will there be anybody on base to score when those guys are slugging?
It’s a fair concern, but hopefully Freddi will bat Heyward high in the order and Prado’s liners will continue to find grass instead of gloves.
Wow...
December 14th, 2010
11:06 am
Hudson vs Halladay
Hanson vs Lee
Jurrjens vs Hamels
Lowe vs Oswalt
Looks pretty one-sided to me…
Unless Hanson and Jurrjens turn into the aces their suppose to be
O.J.
December 14th, 2010
11:06 am
Hmmmm, sounds like Frank can trade Lowe to the Rangers or the Yankees and get something in return without having to throw in cash now.
TennesseePaul
December 14th, 2010
11:07 am
The build-up to weekend FOX games between the Braves and Phillies
Hudson v. Halladay…
[This weekend Hudson vs. Hallady in a game between aces and fierce division rivals]
Hanson v. Lee..
[This weekend Hanson vs. Lee in a game between a young son and a prodigal son and fierce division rivals]
Jurrjens v. Hamels…
[This weekend Jurrjens vs. Hamels in a game between young pitchers with infinite promise and fierce division rivals]
Lowe v. Oswalt…
[This weekend it'll be Yankees vs Boston in a game between fierce division rivals]
rammerjammer
December 14th, 2010
11:08 am
Could be the Phils thought they needed to keep up with OUR rotation, what with Lowe’s resurgence, Hanson’s second half, Minor’s and Beachy’s flashes, Hudson’s brilliance and JJ’s logical rebound.
And then young Mr. Teheran and Mr. Delgado in the wings.
Yeah, I would be concerned, too.
Wow...
December 14th, 2010
11:08 am
LOL! Beachy better than Jurrjens? Based on what, two starts? Now I understand why some of you think Cliff Lee isn’t that great. Something’s wrong with your heads.
Bat Masterson
December 14th, 2010
11:09 am
But we don’t have the defense to win 100+ games. The Phillies now have a rotation to go with their defense (and occasionally potent offense – especially in that park), to easily eclipse the 100 win plateau. _ N8
Nothing easy about winning 100+ games, N8. Gotta be not only very good but lucky as well. You can put me down as doubtful.
abwright
December 14th, 2010
11:09 am
Kawakami to the Rangers for Nellie Cruz. Get ‘er done, Frank!
RC
December 14th, 2010
11:09 am
No question the Phillies are once again the team to beat in the NL, and for all of our rationalizing, I don’t think the Braves are really that close. Sure the Braves have a better bullpen, but with 4 starters who are likely to give you around 900 innings, the Phillies don’t really need a very good bullpen. My guess is that it’ll perform better this year than expected, because they shouldn’t EVER get overworked. And for the people saying Prado/Heyward is a better combo than Utley/Howard….I’m sorry, they aren’t. They likely will be soon, maybe in 2 or 3 years as they develop and Utley and Howard age, but right now there is really no comparison.
No doubt the Phillies are a scary, scary team on paper, but they still have to play the games, and just about anything can happen over the course of a 162-game baseball season. Can’t wait to see how it plays out.
Wow...
December 14th, 2010
11:10 am
Considering Jurrjens success against the Phillies, I’d keep him if I was you
RC
December 14th, 2010
11:11 am
Hmmmm, sounds like Frank can trade Lowe to the Rangers or the Yankees and get something in return without having to throw in cash now.
He certainly could. But then the Braves have the problem of trying to replace Lowe’s production, and I don’t really think the available players are out there to make that happen.
TDub
December 14th, 2010
11:20 am
N8, don’t be silly – Jesus wouldn’t play CF, everyone knows Jesus saves.
O.J.
December 14th, 2010
11:23 am
RC, we could trade Lowe and then trade for Greinke, lol
Efrim
December 14th, 2010
11:27 am
RC, we could trade Lowe and then trade for Greinke, lol
I thought about that, but then you’re having to give up Teheran, Delgado, etc. Plus, it appears they want up the middle position players, and the Braves don’t really have that in the minors currently(Lipka can’t be traded).
ncscoots
December 14th, 2010
11:28 am
Homerism at it’s finest. I love it.
That’s merely the flip side your coin, N8. Ascribing 12-win impact to Lee replacing Blanton is fear and loathing at its finest, LOL.
And therein lies the rub. As N8 himself showed in his comparison of Maddux replacing Leibrandt (unintentionally, I’m sure), the undeniably greater pitcher, with an ERA a full run lower, pitching a ton more innings, with better run support, was able to get exactly…zero…more team wins for his team than his weaker predecessor.
It’s not that Lee doesn’t make the Phillies better; he does. But some of you are ascribing an unreasonable amount of impact to the signing. He still has to pitch every fifth day, he still has to face live batters, and he’s still human. Wealthier, but still human. And he still relies on his team to actually create wins. He’s a pitcher; all he can do is prevent losing.
Cy freaking Young himself couldn’t add 11 or 12 additional wins to a team, because baseball is not a game that lends itself to that kind of linear extrapolation. Just won’t happen, not with Cliff Lee or anybody else.
Snotboogie
December 14th, 2010
11:28 am
I like the situation the Yankess find themselves in.
Lee pretty much told them to shove their 148 M up their…..
They cant and wont trade for Greinke partly because they dont think he will survive in NY.
They would have to pay a premium price for Garza because TB wouldnt want him going to to NYY.
After all this they are left with the best free agent SP in …..wait for it…
CARL PAVANO!
DAP
December 14th, 2010
11:29 am
ok, this is bothering me a little bit. let me help some of you.
dominate- verb… use in a sentence “Braves will dominate the Phillies.”
dominant- adjective… use in a sentence “Braves have a dominant rotation.”
rammerjammer
December 14th, 2010
11:29 am
Lee to Philly actually makes it less likely Frank deals a pitcher. I think we’ll be glad to have 2-3 guys we can plug in during the course of a season.
Of course, that’s highly unlikely since we all know pitchers rarely get injured.
I mean, no reason to think that Halladay, age 34 next year, will start showing the effects of 1,180 IP in the last five seasons.
Or Oswalt, with 1,513 IP since 2004. He clearly won’t slow down anytime soon.
And Philadelphia has all kinds of young pitching in the minors, ready to call up.
So, yeah, they’re set.
Carroll Rogers
December 14th, 2010
11:31 am
TDub, that got a chuckle out of me. Am I going to be struck by lightning now?
N8
December 14th, 2010
11:31 am
“Hudson vs Halladay
Hanson vs Lee
Jurrjens vs Hamels
Lowe vs Oswalt
Looks pretty one-sided to me…
Unless Hanson and Jurrjens turn into the aces their suppose to be” Wow…
Let’s make one thing clear. If healthy, Hanson and Jurrjens are clearly “in the ballpark” of being the Aces they’re supposed to be and will help the Braves hold their own in head to head matchups with the Phils.
But having Cliff Lee instead of Blanton makes the Phillies matchups against lesser teams even more lopsided than it already was, which is where they are going to stockpile their W’s.
I’ll take my chances with our rotation head to head against ANYBODY’s rotation. After all, our Braves were the best competition for the eventual WS champion Giants, right? Guys like Lowe, Hanson, Hudson seemed to do OK against Lincecum and Cain who are certainly right there with Lee/Halladay.
Hell, Kenshin Kawakami beat Halladay in 2009 in a head to head matchup (1-0 if I remember correctly).
But make no mistake about it. Once Hanson gets where he needs to be to go deeper into games? He’ll be every bit as good as everybody on your staff save Halladay who is just in his own league.
As for Jurrjens? He was an injured Ace last year. Just like Hamels was the previous year. Don’t act like Jurrjens hasn’t proved himself. He has. Now he has to prove that he can rebound and stay healthy.
Like I’ve been saying all along. We just might kick your guys’ asses head to head (like the Marlins did to us in 97), but still might finish 10 games behind you in the standings. It wouldn’t be the first time that’s happened to a team.
O.J.
December 14th, 2010
11:34 am
I thought about that, but then you’re having to give up Teheran, Delgado, etc. Plus, it appears they want up the middle position players, and the Braves don’t really have that in the minors currently(Lipka can’t be traded). Efrim
We have Tyler Pastornicky, maybe him and Delgado could get it done.
TDub
December 14th, 2010
11:38 am
Thanks Carol – I think I’d welcome a jolt of lightning right now, just for the warmth…
N8
December 14th, 2010
11:38 am
scoots, I have never once said that Lee himself gives the Phillies 10-12 more wins.
The combination of Lee replacing Blanton and Oswalt for a full season instead of 12 starts, however…… does just that imo.
If you don’t think Maddux had an effect on the rest of the rotation, other than simply team wins and losses, you must be Shaun in disguise. Meaning you think these guys are robots simply trotting out there for their turn.
The Phillies were a mediocre team until they added Oswalt. Then that rotation started rolling. Now they’ll have Oswalt AND Lee for 162 games? Dude, that team is going to steam roll the NL with it’s pitching. Oh… and they can hit and field a little bit too.
I seem to recall a TON of people on the blog “not worried” once the Phillies got Oswalt. Well I’m the record right now, saying that I’m worried about them having that 4-some in their rotation and anybody who is not worried about it is lying to themselves.
Dadgum......
December 14th, 2010
11:39 am
OJ…..talking right now as opposed to past performance. If I’m choosing between Beachy and JJ to start a game I’m going with Beachy. In fact he could be the sleeper of the staff this year. Sure that could change. I definitely like Beachy over Minor regardless.
Fredi's Fu Manchu
December 14th, 2010
11:42 am
Let’s not fret about the Phils, we have Joe Mather. He’s athletic.
ward
December 14th, 2010
11:46 am
Wow..: go Back to your Philly blog, and stay there! Wren says the braves will be fine, and I think we will too. Lee is not the greatest pitcher in the whole world you know.Our staff is just as good……Phllie fans go back to your blog we don’t want to hear you…..Where were you two months ago. Phillie fans go back to your Pie Hole……
MikeInFl
December 14th, 2010
11:48 am
Yes. Right back to your Pie Hole!
btw, was it just 2 years ago we were laughing about the Phillies’ lack of starting pitching?
Their 5-man rotation entering the 2009 season was: Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, Joe Blanton, Cole Hamels, and Chan Ho Park. (’course they scored 820 runs, added Lee midseason, and still won 93 games). Money solves a lot of problems.
James
December 14th, 2010
11:50 am
Brian Jordan on MLB Network. Jordan says Phillies just bought ticket to WS. However he said that the Braves need some power for the outfield and they’ll be good to go, including the addition of Uggla. We also have a good rotation.
ward
December 14th, 2010
11:50 am
Phily fans go home. You didn’t show up after you lost in the Play Offs or two months ago! Don’t show up on our blog now!
Snotboogie
December 14th, 2010
11:51 am
ward
As I remember, you werent here 2 months ago either. A lot of these people are not Philly fans, just worried Braves fans. It is a fair worry too considering that they will have Halladay and Lee for the next few years. So turn it down a little man.
VaBravesFan
December 14th, 2010
11:53 am
We need Chipper to be healthy for sure.
ncscoots
December 14th, 2010
11:53 am
Dude, that team is going to steam roll the NL with it’s pitching.
Well, there you go, LOL. If you’re hanging ten out on the ledge, I’ll try to talk you down, but I’m surely not going to try to grab you when you jump.
NoBreggie4Dogs
December 14th, 2010
11:54 am
Just announced by the Kansas City Star
KC Royals – and in a hollow, cruel twist of events, in a 3 way trade with the Florida Marlins and Toronto Blue Jays Dayton Moore today traded Z Greinke for Yunel Escobar, Jo Jo Reyes, Omar Infante, Ricky Nolasco and Mike Dunn giving him his desired team… Florida received Kyle Drabek whilst Toronto gets Greinke and Yunesky Betancourt
KC Royals have a starting lineup including Gregor Blanco, Omar Infante, Jeff Francouer, Wilson Betemit, Yunel Escobar
In further developments Moore has inquired about 1b Troy Glaus and Jarrod Saltalamachia
Hugene
December 14th, 2010
11:54 am
Trade JJ and McLouth to the Yankees for Gardner, then spend the $8 million we save on something productive.
ward
December 14th, 2010
11:55 am
Phillie fans money dosn’t solve every thing! Keep telling your – selfs that!!!! You still have a bunch of holes……..
ward
December 14th, 2010
11:57 am
Braves don’t need to trade anybody. There is no need to panic.The Braves are fine…..
NoBreggie4Dogs
December 14th, 2010
11:59 am
Rangers going for Chien Ming Wang, now if that buy at the bottom trade works, they will look like geniuses (is that correct English) cause the guy was GR8 for 2 years b4 his foot injury
VaBravesFan
December 14th, 2010
12:01 pm
We clearly still have the better and deeper bullpen over the Phillies. Also the Phillys lineup is very Left handed. They might end up with 5 lefty’s in a row in the middle of that order.
Lets compare positions
C McCann vs Ruiz Atlanta
1B Freeman vs Howard Philly
2B Uggla vs Utley Push
3B Chipper vs Polanco Atlanta
SS Gonzo vs Rollins Philly
LF Ibanez vs Prado Atlanta
CF Braves? vs Victorino Philly
RF Heyward vs Brown Atlanta
ward
December 14th, 2010
12:05 pm
I llike it how ESPN picked the braves two months ago, and the all of a sudden the whole ESPn crew is picking the Phillies to win the Wolrd Series.Very funny,because thats how ESPN works.Lee isn’t the only best player out there. Over rated, and over paid…..
ward
December 14th, 2010
12:06 pm
Remember our staff is good too, and younger……
FEAR
December 14th, 2010
12:08 pm
no need to panic……..yet. The big 3 for the phils could somehow all have crappy years next year, Look at that earlier post about the 89 Mets.
LTBF
December 14th, 2010
12:08 pm
Good morning all
McKee 10:48
Good point, if we aveaged almost 44,000 per game Liberty would or should have a higher payroll.
N8
December 14th, 2010
12:09 pm
Funny scooots. But don’t mistake my recent strings of comments on this subject as panic, giving up, anger, etc….
I still like our team. We had a magical year last year. I’ve warned for months that we might be a better team from day one in 2011 and either finish with less wins or fail to make the playoffs.
Many things factor in. I know the NFL is not MLB, but my Chiefs are probably going to end up around 10-6 this year. There is a very real chance that they finish much worst than that next year (didn’t Falcons have the same fate with one year of an easy schedule and then struggled the next year?), even though I expect the team to improve.
No NFC West teams to play next year (NFC East instead) and instead of playing Cleveland and Buffalo as part of their last place schedule from last year, they’ll end up with Pittsburgh/Baltimore and Indy or Jacksonville (if they win the AFC west or finsish 2nd).
Chiefs could easily go 7-9 next year.
Back to the Braves. I think the lineup is clearly better. If JJJ returns to form/health, along with the advancement of Hanson and Minor or Beachy (and possible mid-summer help from Teheran), the rotation should be better equipped. The bullpen, while losing Billy Wagner should be solid if not spectacular.
Hinske is still around and with additions of Mather (and if Schafer replaces Nate at some point), the bench should still be a strength. Though losing Infante hurts a bit.
On paper, I think the Braves have improved. But so have the Nats. The Mets can only be better. And clearly the Phillies are not expected to drop off. The competition in the NL East stepped it up a notch.
Like I’ve said all along, I think that Phillies rotation helps them roll through the lesser teams in the league, thus they will roll in the NL East, even though their divisional games might be closely fought battles.
What if Braves win 92-93 games this year and the Rockies win the WC with 94 or 95 wins?
Like I said. Braves will be better. But I don’t think they’re better enough with the addition of Lee to the Phillies to close that gap in the standings. I’ll take my chances if we meet up in the NLCS with them. But the East is theirs to lose.
So no need to talk me off the ledge. I’m not on the edge. I’m watching with binoculars from accross the street and took my rose colored glasses off long ago. I really think I’m seeing this clearly and making reasonable assumptions.
But I’m OK with you disagreeing with me. What fun would it be if you wouldn’t? LOL
Bat Masterson
December 14th, 2010
12:13 pm
Regardless of what the deal does for the Phillies, it’s given N8 a reason exercise his typing skills. Pace yourself man, still a long way to go till spring training.
NoBreggie4Dogs
December 14th, 2010
12:14 pm
Bat – I chortled
ward
December 14th, 2010
12:14 pm
Remember we don’t need Clff Lee. We have plenty of pitching, and Dan Uggla, and I don’t buy what ESPN says anyway. They ride the band wagon….
LPad
December 14th, 2010
12:15 pm
For those of you who think Beachy is a future star, consider the fact that Beachy couldn’t even pry Lorenzo Cain away from a team looking for pitching. This guy isn’t a star in the making. At best he will be a good reliever or have a Joe Blanton type career. He had two decent starts for a rookie against players that never seen him before.
ward
December 14th, 2010
12:15 pm
Long way to go to Spring traing…..I like the challenge, so let it ride….
Tomas
December 14th, 2010
12:16 pm
Wild card here we come
ward
December 14th, 2010
12:17 pm
Blanton is over rated, and sucked in the Play Offs…..
BravePack
December 14th, 2010
12:17 pm
At least we signed Uggla long term…oh wait were taking our time with that. Hey maybe he’ll go to the Phillkees next year because the Braves don’t sign anyone long term.
DS1
December 14th, 2010
12:18 pm
Great move for the Phillies. Reminds me of some great staffs in the past. Was it the 1970 Orioles that had 4 20 game winners? With relief specialization these days, that’ll never happen again.
But they are very left-handed (and we have NO real lefty starters, as I am not convinced Minor makes the top 5 yet).
But you know what, that’s why they play the games. I still like our staff and if (HUGE IF) Chipper can capture the magic of last summer and with Uggla added, we might end up being a decent runs scoring team.
So many variables that can change a teams fortune from year to year.
Dang it’s gonna be a fun year to follow!!! Iron sharpens iron!
Tomas
December 14th, 2010
12:19 pm
If KC hadn’t traded Dejesus I would have liked a package involving him and Greinke.
ward
December 14th, 2010
12:20 pm
Giants beat both those pitches you know…….
ward
December 14th, 2010
12:21 pm
Talk later! Philly you don’t scare me. I’m still here, and Lee won’t scare me either….
richbrave
December 14th, 2010
12:22 pm
raleighbravefan
December 14th, 2010
10:39 am
To be the best, you have to beat the best. Reguardless of payroll, we will be competitive in 2011 and forseeable future. Playoffs are never guaranteed (ask Red Sox and Cardinals, for example). Lets go out and get ‘er done on the field.
Injuries often have as much effect as talent.Time will tell. GO BRAVES!
They certainly did last year. We were on the way to a serious pennent race with the FILTHIES when CHIPPER, then PRADO went down.
ncscoots
December 14th, 2010
12:23 pm
I really think I’m seeing this clearly and making reasonable assumptions.
Well, of course, you do, LOL. You’ve always been so leery of rose-colored glasses that you replace them with blinders, convincing yourself that what you then see is the dark before the storm, and not merely a lack of vision.
Doesn’t mean I don’t love ya, man, LOL.
richbrave
December 14th, 2010
12:24 pm
LPad
December 14th, 2010
12:15 pm
For those of you who think Beachy is a future star, consider the fact that Beachy couldn’t even pry Lorenzo Cain away from a team looking for pitching. This guy isn’t a star in the making. At best he will be a good reliever or have a Joe Blanton type career. He had two decent starts for a rookie against players that never seen him before.
Bite me foot-pad.
DS1
December 14th, 2010
12:25 pm
Cliff Lee was just totally unhittable in the World Serious! Man this guarantees the Phillies a title and Lee two WS rings in a row………
Wait a minute, your telling me I shouldn’t have gone on hiatus in late October??? SF did WHAT??
Like I said, gonna be a great season! Lots of fine young men playing the game I FLAT OUT LOVE! Gonna be fun to watch Heyward progress, and Freeman digging those throws out of the dirt. McCann hitting again with confidence. Chipper hanging on and getting rejuvenated by the kids around him. Uggla’s huge upper cut swing and mammoth blasts at the Ted!
Hanson throwing that nastiness consistently. Teheran coming up at the end of August much like David Price did a few years back. Venters and Kimbrell throwing gas in the pen!
Schafer and Young and McLouth slugging it out in the spring; all crying “Put me in coach, I’m ready to play, today! Look at me, gotta be centerfield!”
Dang I love it!
richbrave
December 14th, 2010
12:25 pm
Bat Masterson
December 14th, 2010
12:13 pm
Regardless of what the deal does for the Phillies, it’s given N8 a reason exercise his typing skills. Pace yourself man, still a long way to go till spring training.
Well said. N8 quite standing in the middle of the room, and take a shower, you stink.
Efrim
December 14th, 2010
12:26 pm
ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick: Cliff Lee’s deal with Phillies: $107.5MM in salary for 5 years. $12.5MM buyout for a guaranteed $120MM payout.
If the $27.5MM option vests, Lee will make $135MM. The Yankees were going to give him $148MM. Hence, the $13MM gap in offers.
O.J.
December 14th, 2010
12:27 pm
DS1, World Serious! LMAO!
Efrim
December 14th, 2010
12:29 pm
120 guaranteed dollars to Lee over 5 seasons, although I bet that option vests and he gets 135m.
Bat Masterson
December 14th, 2010
12:29 pm
Bat – I chortled _ NoBreggie4Dogs
So it’s not a waste of time, good to know.
T for Texas
December 14th, 2010
12:29 pm
If you take the 2008 season out of Cliff Lee’s stats, in the remaining 8 years of his career he is 80-58 with an ERA of 4.09. Not sure if that is relevant, but it makes me feel better.
MikeInFl
December 14th, 2010
12:30 pm
Beachy struck out 11.2/9, and walked 2.1/9 in 119 innings between AA and AAA last year, and then came to the bigs and K’d 16 batters in 15 IP against the Phillies (twice) and the Nationals. Doesn’t give up the long ball.
Not saying he’s the next CLIFF LEE, but he’s a solid prospect who developed a little late.
I’m not so sure the Braves ever offered him to Milwaukee. Frankly, if we did, I think the Brewers made a mistake in turning down the deal.