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6,221 comments Add your comment
nolie
December 14th, 2010
1:47 am
I got plenty of hope myself and I don’t mean it is already over, but folks pooh-poohing the Lee pickup and calling their offense mediocre are just not dealing with reality
ward
December 14th, 2010
1:48 am
No more Pirate Players please……
nolie
December 14th, 2010
1:49 am
nah Tom, the speedo is in the wash. I’m neked tonite….
ward
December 14th, 2010
1:49 am
Once again Phillies choke!!!!!!
Arkansas Transplant
December 14th, 2010
1:50 am
I second the “no more Pirate players”.
Tomas
December 14th, 2010
1:50 am
nolie, you seriously saying McCutchen is a bad defensive player
Jake W.
December 14th, 2010
1:50 am
Arkansas Transplant
Answer to 1-7, Who Knows, but thats why you play the game. I mean who had the padres finishing better than 3rd in their division last year and nearly making the playoffs only to be bested on the last day of the season by the eventual world champs?
The braves had to overcome a lot last year and still won 91 games. Just let the season play out.
ward
December 14th, 2010
1:51 am
We will be fine……..
Tom O'Hawke
December 14th, 2010
1:52 am
Tom, I don’t have a really plausible answer, …
TNScott, no, there’s no way you could, really. Especially to the Lee trade, then the Lee signing.
It just seems to me, that if the Phillies owners/owner lies like that, do they all? Probably. So do we fans even have a clue to as what’s going on?
Sometimes, the rich are eccentric in their ways
TNScott, that’s as good as an explanation as I think anyone can make.
ccrider
December 14th, 2010
1:54 am
N8: just to remind you and all of us. The Braves had 3 Hall of Fame pitchers and won 1 World Series. Philly has 1 likely Hall of Fame pitcher in Halladay and 3 others that have had some bad years between them.
If, we can get our offense and defense better, I will take our starting pitching results against San Francisco and feel like we can match up with the Phillies. Hudson, Lowe, Hanson, and JJ can all be great at times. Minor and Beachy may emerge. Teheran may become our Steve Avery. Let’s get our S**t together and duke it out.
Jake W.
December 14th, 2010
1:54 am
I got plenty of hope myself and I don’t mean it is already over, but folks pooh-poohing the Lee pickup and calling their offense mediocre are just not dealing with reality
Even when that offense was healthy they still weren’t as good as years past and they just lost Werth, one of there more productive offensive players. That rotation is great but there is something about that offense that doesn’t seem right or nearly as good as years past. Maybe i’m wrong but I don’t look at that offense the same way I have in years passed. Its not bad by any means, just not looking like the juggernaut anymore.
VaBravesFan
December 14th, 2010
1:55 am
we have 4 starters capable of winning 15 or more games. The Phillies may have the better rotation and more power, there very left handed and lack a RH hitter. Also of Pen is WAY better. Our offense is improved as well. Like RICHBRAVE said we need to improve vs the NL east.
ward
December 14th, 2010
1:56 am
Amen Brother………
Arkansas Transplant
December 14th, 2010
1:56 am
Jake W.
I’m all for letting the season play out but I still think you have to put yourself in a position before hand to contend with the clubs in your division. We have the ability to make ourselves better, don’t we deserve the effort to at least try? I think even a move for Greinke would make Hanson more effective, they could learn from one another. Right now Hanson is our only true power pitcher.
Brooklyn Braves Brawler
December 14th, 2010
1:57 am
The Royals have a good young core that really and truly needs pitching, at this point you almost have to go all in and make every effort maximize your chances at success.
I dont worry about Lowe or Huddy, they ball and are big time postseason pitchers. One of either Beachy, JJ, Minor wold have to be included in a deal for Greinke. Schaeffer, Viscaino or Teheran would also have to be involved. The one thing that the Bravos have going for them is that, Greinke is no a bigcity guy and the ATL shrinks come baseball season. We as fans tend to act like a small market if the Bravos are struggling. I thing that you acquire Grienke now, hold him to FA and let him go and get the picks
VaBravesFan
December 14th, 2010
1:57 am
i’m still stunned that they landed him.
ward
December 14th, 2010
1:57 am
Let’s get ready to rumble……
Tom O'Hawke
December 14th, 2010
1:58 am
nah Tom, the speedo is in the wash. I’m neked tonite….
Crap! Now we’ll never be able to close down.
nolie
December 14th, 2010
1:59 am
I’m seriously saying that the metrics say he is a bad defensive CFeer, one of the worse. especially weak on deep hit balls. I have not seen him in person enough to argue that point and scouting from a TV is very iffy at best unless you have slo-mo and instant replay for every play.
+/- has him @ -8 and -10 runs saved each of the last two years.The 10 man panel at Fielding Bible which includes some very notable baseball experts voted him 20th this year.
If you know better , I won’t argue with you.
VaBravesFan
December 14th, 2010
2:00 am
If the Braves were to counter the Phillies and make a big move, We would have to trade prospects for a young proven player under team control someone like McCutchin for example. Keep the main 4 starters in place. Not like the Braves are doing anything else, just saying.
Jake W.
December 14th, 2010
2:02 am
Arkansas Transplant
I do not think we need Greinke and neither do I want him. He performed well in a low pressure situation for the seemingly forever bad Kansas City Royals and this is a guy with an admitted problem, not worth risking any of our top prospects on that. Frank Wren has given this team the pieces to compete while keeping our farm intact. He has made this team better.
Oh and good pitchers are good pitchers. Hanson was the starter who yielded the most runs out of our three starters in the playoffs. Power can backfire on you. I’m perfectly fine with starting the season with what we got with some minor tweaks before spring training and hopefully KK being moved. If we need something during the season, im sure Wren will make a move and he’s got the pieces to do that.
mr baseball
December 14th, 2010
2:02 am
If N8 is still around, here are a few numbers for him to contemplate before he concedes the Phillies the division titles for next year and seasons beyond.
Over the last 2 years, Cliff Lee is 26-22 with a 3.16 ERA. He’s been pretty dam good in the post-season, but mostly when he’s pitching against the Yankees. Don’t think the Yankees are in the NL.
Cliff Lee has had the grand total of 2 seasons in his career that indicate he is worth anything close to what the Phillies paid him. Of the last five seasons, he has had exactly one that remotely approaches the $20 million a year standard.
The Phillies are certainly a better team with Lee, but how many more games will they win with him? He was all of 4-6 with a 4 ERA for the Rangers, who are as good offensively as the Phillies.
Hamels had an ERA barely over 3 last year and won all of 1 more game than he lost. Kendrick had the same record and an ERA 1.67 higher. If Lee has an ERA right around 3 and goes maybe 15-11, anybody think that translates into 104 wins for the Phillies?
On paper, the Phillies are the best team in the league, maybe in baseball. The Red Sox probably best fit that description last year and they didn’t even make the playoffs. Even with a rotation of Beckett & Lackey & Dice-K and 2 young kids who were 36-16 with a combined ERA well under 3.
The idea that signing one player ensures a team’s success is ludicrous. Anybody remember the reaction of ESPN’s panel of “experts” who unanimously agreed that the Braves’ acquisition of Teixeira guaranteed a division title that season?
The Phillies are clearly the team to beat in the division? So what. The Braves are gonna play 162 games next year, and if they win more than 90, they’ll probably make the playoffs, regardless how many the Phillies win.
Like every other team in baseball, the Phillies have their weak spots. And as the Giants exposed in the playoffs, some of their strengths may not be as formidable as once thought.
Maybe the Phillies will win 100-plus games next season, coast to a division title and beat the Red Sox in the World Series. Maybe not. But to suggest it’s all over because of the signing of Lee is an unthinking, knee-jerk reaction that does not befit the esteem most of us on here reserve for the guy with a letter and a number.
Mitchell
December 14th, 2010
2:04 am
r u effing kidding me?
please somebody tell me I did not just read Cliff Lee to the Phillies.
i’m hallucinating. that did not just happen.
TNScott
December 14th, 2010
2:05 am
Speedos and neked Nolies. That’s too much for me to stomach after those two Little Debbie Fudge Rounds I just ate. I got to go to bed before I really have a nightmare that’ll make Freddy’s look like Alice in Wonderland.
nolie
December 14th, 2010
2:07 am
sorry Scott, blame Tom he asked….
ward
December 14th, 2010
2:12 am
Mithcell, relax! Yes the Phillies got Lee,but the Braves will be fine……
Tom O'Hawke
December 14th, 2010
2:13 am
Nite, Scott. Keep a pail close to your bed. (that’s what I do)
nolie
December 14th, 2010
2:15 am
Jake W, even with a lot of injuries to important hitters last season they were second on the league in runs scored. Even without Werth I can’t see how they are gonna be mediocre
kirkinga
December 14th, 2010
2:15 am
The return of Lee to the Phillies really doesn’t change the question for the Braves going into the season. Even without Lee, winning the division was going to be tough for the Braves.
So then the Braves’ fortune lies in the question of whether or not they can beat out one of the following for the WC: the Giants, Rox, Dodgers, Reds, Cardinals, and probably some team that no one now expects to compete but does.
My guess is that the Braves will have to beat out the Rox and Cardinals to win the WC.
When you think of the season in this way, the signing of Lee remains impressive, but in no way dooms the Braves. The Giants have the starting pitching to compete with the Phils. As we saw last season, Lee was good, but hardly untouchable in the playoffs.
One way the signing does impact the Braves is that JJ and Hanson are both going to have to pitch to their potential so that the Braves chances aren’t buried due to their intradivision record.
ward
December 14th, 2010
2:19 am
Well the Phillies don’t scare me, and i’ll say it again, we have good pitching too, and we have Dan Uggla…..Nite every one, and peace…….
Tom O'Hawke
December 14th, 2010
2:19 am
If mr baseball isn’t aka N8, at 2:02, then the blog’s night shift is in for an incredible amount of reading in the future.
Coach (2011 Fredi G. a Go!)
December 14th, 2010
2:21 am
Cliff Lee to Philly pretty much ends any speculation of winning the N.L. East division. Our Braves will once again be fighting for the wild card right up to the end of the 2011 season.
Which leads to my next question, what the hell is Frank Wren thinking????? Because our defensively challenged and slow footed Braves have little chance of competing beyond 162 regardless of the wild card results.
If the Yankees were inclined to trade for Derek Lowe, I wouldn’t even think twice about it. Gone, done deal. Make room for Teheran, Delgado, Minor and Beachy. Pick up Joba Chamberlain, Brett Gardner and one or two more prospects in return, and build for the future.
Of course, Wren isn’t even contemplating such a move because he’s a company man and not that smart.
Jake W.
December 14th, 2010
2:23 am
even with a lot of injuries to important hitters last season they were second on the league in runs scored. Even without Werth I can’t see how they are gonna be mediocre
Thats kind of my point, the backups really picked it up for them but when they were healthy the numbers didn’t look to resemble what that unit was capable of doing last year. Just look at them in the playoffs. They were opportunistic in the first round and took advantage of some reds errors. Giants weren’t so giving. The same thing against the braves toward the end, the difference in some low and close scoring games were braves errors and we were the team half gone with injuries by then. It wasn’t as impressive as years past and now they lose Werth. I think it makes a difference, how big a difference now that they have added Lee, who knows but I think his loss is pretty big.
Mitchell
December 14th, 2010
2:23 am
You could be right, mr baseball.
But this is bad news for Braves fans. Last year might have been their best chance after all.
Now, not only do the Phils have Cliff Lee, they have Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt… in addition to Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels. For the whole season!
If Bobby was still around, we’d have no chance. If Fredi can just find a way to win the wild card, he’ll have a Manager of the Year award with his name on it.
This from the guy who said the Braves were better than the Phillies in Spring Training last year and predicted they would win the division. And he would have been right if the manager hadn’t openly conceded it in the middle of September by starting Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor against Hamels and Halladay.
The Phillies are winning the division. It’s over.
The Braves are good but not that good.
nolie
December 14th, 2010
2:27 am
And he would have been right if the manager hadn’t openly conceded it in the middle of September by starting Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor against Hamels and Halladay. M
what a load…again…as usual
Tom O'Hawke
December 14th, 2010
2:31 am
Coach (2011 Fredi G. a Go!) @ 2:21
I think it’s time to go back to the manual about what mushrooms are safe to eat.
The ones that you’re picking and putting in your salad are obviously clouding (did anyone catch that?) you’re judgement.
Tom O'Hawke
December 14th, 2010
2:35 am
I know, I know. Would have been a lot better with “your”. Give me a break. It’s late.
Tom O'Hawke
December 14th, 2010
2:36 am
Enter your commI know, I know. Would have been a lot better with “your”. Give me a break. It’s lateents here
Tom O'Hawke
December 14th, 2010
2:36 am
I know, I know. Would have been a lot better with “your”. Give me a break. It’s late
DS1
December 14th, 2010
2:37 am
Gonna have to put my waders on tonight, it’s getting very deep in here!
Mitchell
December 14th, 2010
2:40 am
Say this for Cliff Lee, at least he didn’t go to the Yankees.
They spit on his wife. If you’re a guy pitching for an opposing team in Yankee Stadium and your wife gets spit on or has beer thrown on her and you then two months later decide to sign with that same team with those digusting, classless fans, there’s something seriously wrong with you.
Finally, somebody put that organisation in it’s place. You gotta respect the guy for once not selling his soul for Yankee money. He’ll just have to settle for Phillie money.
As screwed as the Braves are with him rejoining the Phillies out of nowhere, hopefully this spells the end of the most recent Yankee dynasty that came into being one night in October fourteen years ago.
Now if only the Yankees and Red Sox team planes would crash into each other all of our problems would be solved.
Tom O'Hawke
December 14th, 2010
2:41 am
What in the wide, wide world of sports was that?
Mitchell
December 14th, 2010
2:42 am
I guess it should be noted that John Smoltz turned the Yankees down on at least one occasion if I’m not mistaken.
John Smotlz, good people.
N8
December 14th, 2010
2:44 am
“N8: just to remind you and all of us. The Braves had 3 Hall of Fame pitchers and won 1 World Series.” ccrider
At no point in any of my rants/posts did I mention the Phillies as WS favorites, nor did I crown them as WS champs.
You’re right. The Braves with those stellar rotations only won one WS. But they won the divsion 14 years in a row and usually did it by double digits ahead of the 2nd place team.
I’m simply saying with that rotation, they will dominate lesser teams and pile up the wins against them, making the liklihood of them winning the NL East a pretty easy prediction.
Like I stated earlier. In 97 the Marlins handled us in head to head competition (8-4 in the 12 games in the regular season), then beat us 4-2 in the NLCS. That team was built to beat us head to head and they succeeded in doing so.
They also finished 9 games behind the Braves in the standings. They had a great rotation lead by Kevin Brown, Al Leiter and Alex Fernandez. Just like we’ve got a great rotation in 2011 led by Hudson, Hanson, JJJ with Lowe and Minor filling out the rotation.
That Marlins rotation was NOT Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz and Neagle. Just like our rotation is NOT Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Oswalt.
Doesn’t mean we can’t play with the Phillies and in fact, perhaps with the addition of Uggla and some good luck with health to Chipper and Prado, we might even kick their asses head to head, and could even bump them in the playoffs if we meet.
But if both teams stay healthy, they will likely finish with a better regular season record than us (and the rest of the NL East).
That’s all I’m saying, and I’m standing by it. Until Wren adds another piece, or Chipper shows he’s the Chipper of Old, (rather than just “old” Chipper), or the Phillies suffer some massive injury setbacks… the Phillies HAVE TO BE the clear cut favorites to repeat in the NL East.
Everybody talks about the Phillies and some injuries and how that could set them back. They need 2 or 3 major injuries to bring them back to the pack. We are one major injury away from it being a devastating loss.
What if only one of Heyward, Prado, Chipper, Mac, Hanson, JJJ, Hudson, or god forbid Uggla goes down?
I’m not trying to be Debbie Downer. I think we have a nice, improved roster over 2010.
But the Phillies have a massively improved roster over the one the started 2010 with. Anybody that can’t recognize that is in serious denial.
Tom O'Hawke
December 14th, 2010
2:52 am
I noticed that N8 didn’t deny my allegation.
Arkansas Transplant
December 14th, 2010
2:55 am
How about a move like JJ, Minor, Delgado, Prado and Marek for Felix Hernandez and Gutierrez?
N8
December 14th, 2010
2:59 am
Mr. Baseball, your first problem is looking at a pitcher’s W-L record.
What did the team do in their starts?
Halladay: 22-11 team record
Oswalt: 10-3 team record
Hamels: 18-15 team record
Blanton: 17-12 team record
67-41 in those 4 starters 108 starts.
Now add Cliff Lee to that mix? One has to assume that they will do for him what they did for Hamels. (safe assumption imo).
Which puts them at 85-55 in 140 starts. Then add in Oswalt’s extra starts being there the whole year?
If he were to make 22 more starts and go even 11-11 in those extra starts, that puts the Phillies at 96-66.
Hell, the team went 17-16 in Kyle Kendrick’s 33 starts. If you don’t think replacing either Kendrick or Blanton’s 33-35 starts with Clif Lee isn’t good for at least 4 more W’s (not to mention a full year of Oswalt)?
I’m not sure what to argue with you. Unless you assume that they are ALL going down with a major injury, I think like the teams of the 90’s for the Braves, that Phillies team is going to win 90 games by just showing up. If Lee, Hamels, Oswalt and Halladay “feed” off of each other like the Braves great rotations did?
Look out.
N8
December 14th, 2010
3:01 am
Yeah, Tom O’Hawke, because I’ve always been a guy that likes to use other monikers and not take credit for uber-long epic posts. LOL!
I’ve only posted under “N8″ tonight and for a long time. I’ll occasionally do a silly post as somebody like “Greg Norton” and make a sarcastic comment. But anything that I want discussed has always been as myself.
Sorry to disappoint you.
N8
December 14th, 2010
3:11 am
“If N8 is still around, here are a few numbers for him to contemplate before he concedes the Phillies the division titles for next year and seasons beyond.” Mr. Baseball
I’m not remotely talking about “seasons beyond” nor am I talking about WS titles.
I’m simply talking about the NL East in 2011. Nothing more. Nothing less.
I think it’s too much money for Lee for too many years. That contract will come back to bite them at some point. Maybe. Probably not as much as the recent Werth contract. Also, Oswalt and Halladay will start to decline at some point. Age does that.
Add to that, with our young core (if guys like Delgado, Teheran, Freeman and Heyward are truly the “real deal”), we’ll definitely keep pace with the Phillies over the long haul.
But next year? I think the division is clearly the Phillies to lose. And MANY things will have to go wrong for them and right for us to take the NL East from them.
Similar to when the Braves were in a 14 year run of division titles, I always shrugged off other team’s moves in the off-season and thought we were the team to beat until somebody beat us.
Same goes for the Phillies right now. Only a blind homer would think otherwise. Doesn’t mean we CAN’T win the division. Of course we can. Just means without some stellar play from young players, some great managing and coaching, some “magic/luck” like last year and some injury issues for the Phils, it’s going to be really, really hard to knock them off the mountain top.
ward
December 14th, 2010
3:11 am
N8 :Before I go …… I’ll remember that at the end of the year! Thats if all that you said, can happen again! Thats a big If………….. I’ll say it again I like the Braves pitching staff too. I like our chances. Any day any time….. nite alll……
Tom O'Hawke
December 14th, 2010
3:17 am
Yeah, Tom O’Hawke, because I’ve always been a guy that likes to use other monikers and not take credit for uber-long epic posts. LOL!
N8, hey buddy, no offense. It was you, if I remember correctly, that said you were posting under an aka, not that long ago. You said that someone was hijacking your moniker and you were posting with a different one.
You must be able to recall that.
ccrider
December 14th, 2010
3:17 am
N8, Lets wait and see how massively improved the Final roster may be. They added Lee and lost Werth. They may have to trade Ibanez and possibly others to make the payroll work. The pitching rotation may be better, but the offense may be less. The Braves pitching could be better: if Lowe pitches more like he did the last 2 months, If JJ pitches like he did in 2009, Hanson is more consistent, Hudson just pitches near his 2010 and whoever wins the 5th starter job pitches like Medlen did before his injury OR Teheran becomes a young Steve Avery or Dwight Gooden(not the Cocaine part) and pitches like a future Cy Young winner.
The Braves have pitching depth that the Phils don’t and with Uggla, Prado, Freeman and Chipper added to McCann, Heyward, Gonzalez and maybe an upgrade in CF the Braves have as good of a lineup .
Who knows the bullpen and bench may make the difference!
N8
December 14th, 2010
3:18 am
For the record, whatever it would cost us to add Greinke would be too much. Wren has shown that he’s not willing to sacrifice long-term answers for one quick “fix”. Nor should he.
Had Uggla cost us more than he did? Had the Marlins asked/demanded Teheran, Delgado, Kimbrel or Venters? Uggla would be on another team right now.
Unless Wren can convince the Royals to take Beachy and another low level prospect for Greinke and then convince somebody to take Lowe’s contract off our hands, Greinke will NOT be a Brave anytime soon.
It would be a huge mistake to trade Delgado or Teheran for Greinke. Greinke will make 13.5 million in 2011 and 2012. Then will be a free agent and the chances of him staying in Atlanta (or the Braves wanting to pay him 20+ million) are little to none.
I am not ready to sacrifice 6 guaranteed years of Teheran, Delgado and/or Minor for 2 years of Greinke. When in all liklihood, Minor probably can provide similar team win results over the next two years. As can Lowe. Plus Lowe is battle tested in the post-season.
Zero reason to swap Greinke’s contract for Lowe’s at this point. Just my opinion. Greinke is the kind of guy that JS would have fleeced KC for 15 years ago, signed him long-term and plugged him into an already stellar rotation.
Wren isn’t about to do what JS did for Tex for 2 years of Greinke.
Tom O'Hawke
December 14th, 2010
3:19 am
Hey, ward … nite and peace.
N8
December 14th, 2010
3:21 am
Tom O’Hawke, yeah for about a week or two, I posted under the moniker “Nocho” (a spin on Ocho-Cinco).
But have NEVER posted as mr. baseball.
N8
December 14th, 2010
3:27 am
Ward, I like our team as well. I like my Chiefs team too. But not for a second do I think they are bette than the SD Chargers. Two teams on the rise is what I root for. Good, solid, young cores that should have them competing for years to come. That’s really all I ask.
But when it’s December and you’re left with hoping for EVERYTHING to go right for us and wishing for things to fail for the team that has been the beasts of the East for a while?
I appreciate the faith and I have faith that we can keep pace. I just ultimately think we’ll fail in catching the Phils in the East. If I recall, DOB predicted last spring that the Phils would win the East and the Braves would win the WC.
That’s pretty much what I’m doing now. Though many things can change between now and April. But as of right now, the way the rosters are constructed and the questions about Chipper?
No way am I prediction the Braves will win the division. Just can’t do it. Still worried about our defense. Unless this lineup just mashes the hell out of the ball and beats opposing pitchers into submission, our defense is going to be an issue all year long. No way to really deny that. Might not be Brooks Conrad “playoff” bad.
But unless the voters are going to dish out a GG to our rookie 1B, the only real shot we have for anybody to be in consideration for GG caliber defense to be played on a nightly basis is Heyward.
But hey… 1 out of 8 ain’t bad, right?
Tom O'Hawke
December 14th, 2010
3:28 am
N8
Didn’t know. When I last talked to you about your aka, you didn’t want to reveal it (understandably).
I had no idea how long you were doing the aka. I just happened to be here when you were talking about it, but didn’t know how long, either before or after. I’m not here all that much.
When you look at the format and length of mr. baseball’s post, surely you can see why I thought that there was a possibility.
Arkansas Transplant
December 14th, 2010
3:31 am
ccrider
December 14th, 2010
3:17 am
That’s a lot of “ifs”.
N8
December 14th, 2010
3:18 am
Greinke wouldn’t necessarily be a quick fix given he’s signed thru next year. Plus his contract would expire at the same time Lowes contract would giving us more flex, not to mention Chipper’s contract as well. Gonzalez’s contract will be long gone replaced by in house fixes like lipka or salcedo and let’s don’t forget Mclouth’s contract off the books at the end of this year.
mr baseball
December 14th, 2010
3:34 am
Mr. O’Hawke:
Exactly what led you to believe I was N8 under a pseudonym? Would it make any sense for someone to write a long post, then adopt a fake name and refute it? I believe you may be speaking from experience in regards to said mushrooms.
N8:
I don’t assume for a minute that the Phillies starters are going to do down with injuries, However, I don’t think I’m going out on a limb by figuring that Halladay may not win 21 games with an ERA under 2.5; Hamels may not have an ERA around 3; Oswalt will pitch more like the guy in an Astros’ uniform than he did with the Phillies; and Lee will put up similar numbers to those he compiled the last 2 years.
If someone had told you that Beckett was going to have an ERA of 5.78 and Lackey and Dice-K were both going to be around 4.5, would you have concurred? The Phillies starters are better than their counterparts on the Red Sox, but not by that much.
I don’t think Lee is as good as his rep, and I am pretty certain Oswalt is not going going to be as good as was the second half of the season. If the Braves’ first 4 starters are all healthy (a big if), I would not be surprised if their numbers are reasonably comparable to the Phillies’ Fantastic 4.
As good as the Phillies may be, the Braves will make the playoffs or not on their own merits, not because of anything the Phillies do. I’d definitely pick the Phillies to win the division, but this is baseball. Lots of unexpected stuff is bound to happen between April 1 and Oct. 1, give or take a few days.
That’s it for me. Hope TO’H’s ’shrooms don’t lead to any weird hallucinations, like Cliff Lee signing with the Phillies. That’ll never happen.
Wow...
December 14th, 2010
3:40 am
This is the Phillies division. That’s not being a “debby downer” it’s being realistic.
“We got to play all 162!” “The Phillies aren’t that good!” “The Braves can win if the Phillies suffer from injuries!” “If every Brave player have a career year then we can win!” The same things have been said over and over for the past couple of years and yet, the Phillies still ended up on top, even though most of those things did happen.
Maybe the Phillies are just that good.
ward
December 14th, 2010
3:49 am
Wow.. Shut your Pie Hole: No one cares what you think!!!!!!! Nite every one……
Tom O'Hawke
December 14th, 2010
3:55 am
Mr. O’Hawke:
Exactly what led you to believe I was N8 under a pseudonym? Would it make any sense for someone to write a long post, then adopt a fake name and refute it? I believe you may be speaking from experience in regards to said mushrooms
mr baseball, that belief was in N8’s admission to using a “pseudonym”, a short while back.
Do you only type long-winded posts without reading any others? This was clearly addressed just a little while ago. Typing is fine, but don’t forget to read, also.
ccrider
December 14th, 2010
3:56 am
Arkansas Transplant: That is a lot of if’s, but the Phillies have a lot of ifs too. Who will they have in the outfield if they have to trade Ibanez to make the payroll work, can Dominic Brown play at this level? Can Rollins stay healthy? Can their catcher ever hit as well as last year(he never has before at any level)? Who will be their 5th starter? Which Brad Lidge will show up? Can Utley play to his former level? Will Oswalt pitch like he did for the Astros or like he did for the Phillies? Will Hamels pitch like he did in 2009 or will he pitch lights out like 2010? AND THE STORY CONTINUES
ccrider
December 14th, 2010
4:00 am
Wow; You have good reason to be excited, but don’t fool your self it is a lock. The Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies looked like locks for the WS last year, how did that workout?
Tom O'Hawke
December 14th, 2010
4:12 am
OK. Carroll only pays me $0.00 for each post I write (DOB pays me 3x that much!). So, I’m going to have to leave and find a more lucrative way to spend my time.
Good night, y’all.
otisnixonsmokescrack!
December 14th, 2010
4:47 am
..you gotta play the games but this one is a stunner. nobody thought that lee would be anywhere but in pinstripes. as a phils fan, the smarter move would’ve been not to trade lee in the 1st place. they could’ve had lee/doc(eventually got doc for the same package the jays offfered in july’09) for ‘09/’10 playoffs runs… won at least one more ring and then let the redsox/yanks etc pay these dudes the big contracts.
-losing werth still hurts. a lot. but it opened the door for lee. who actually contacted the phillies. never saw that one coming. still liking the braves rotation but the lee move is a game changer. plus the phils have $$ coming off the books after the ‘10 season too. braves/yanks will make a run at werth 1st chance they get if he puts up beast numbers. maybe even the phils too. insane
N8
December 14th, 2010
4:52 am
“Plus his contract would expire at the same time Lowes contract would giving us more flex, not to mention Chipper’s contract as well.” Arkansas Transplant
The “flex” isn’t the here nor the now of my point. Being able to afford a contract because other contracts are coming off the books, and being willing to to put upwards of 20%+ of your entire payroll into one player is just silly at best.
If Greinke is as good as advertised, he’ll command 22-24 million per year when free agency hits after the 2012 season. If he’s not, he won’t be worth half of that to a team that likely will have Hanson, Medlen, Minor, Teheran and Delgado as options that might not make 20 million COMBINED in 2013.
Zach Greinke will NOT be a Brave anytime soon or after he becomes a free agent.
If I’m Zach Greinke and have the anxiety issues he has, I lock myself up with the Royals for the rest of my career, and pray that they put a good team around me eventually. But you know what? With the farm that KC has building up, they aren’t going to want him after his current deal finishes up either.
He’s made 98 starts the past 3 years, and has a 3.24 ERA over that time.
Hanson has made 54 starts the past 2 seasons and has a 3.15 ERA.
JJJ has a 3.46 ERA since becoming a Brave (85 starts) and that includes the injury riddled 2010 campaign where he made 20 starts with a 4.64 ERA. The Braves won the wild card despite his efforts last year, not because of them. He’ll make about 450K in 2011. If he’s healthy, that will be like adding Zach Greinke for about 1/26 of the price.
Again. Zach Greinke will not be a Brave. Nor should he. Though I’ll repeat. If Wren can trade Beachy and another minor league player not named Delgado, Teheran or Vizcaino for him and gets permission to take on the 13.5 million dollar contract? Go for it.
But common sense says that Lowe would have to go and to be honest for 1.5 more million, I’ll take my chances with D-Lowe the next two years over Greinke and his mental issues outside of the comfort zone that is KC and their low expectations.
Greinke will be a Yankee within 2 weeks.
N8
December 14th, 2010
4:59 am
“Wow; You have good reason to be excited, but don’t fool your self it is a lock. The Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies looked like locks for the WS last year, how did that workout?” ccrider
Nowhere in his post (nor in the discussion throughout the night by most of us), did he or anybody say a word about being WS favorites. I’m simply conceding the NL East as their’s to lose with Lee on board, and Wow pretty much said the same thing.
As Bobby liked to point out so often, the playoffs and WS is a crapshoot of luck and circumstance.
Winning your division over 162 games is nowhere near a crap shoot and have very little to do with luck. The team with the best rotation, everyday lineup and bullpen usually comes out on top. If there are injuries, the team with the best depth on the 25 man roster and kids at AAA ready to help out usually comes out on top. If the bench and farm are weak, then it comes down to the team with an owner that’s willing to add payroll and a GM that can make smart moves.
The Phillies have the better rotation. The Phillies have the better lineup. The Phillies play better defense. The Braves have the better bullpen. The Braves probably have the better bench. But sometimes that changes from year to year (ask Greg Norton). The Braves probably have help on the way sooner in terms of pitching depth. The Phillies clearly have more money to spend and are willing to spend it.
Until somebody proves otherwise, the NL East is the Phillies to lose, and I seriously doubt 2011 is the year anybody knocks them off their pedastal.
Arkansas Transplant
December 14th, 2010
5:35 am
Atlanta needs to move Lowe to the Yanks for a couple of prospects. Then make some move for either King Felix or Greinke.
space monkey
December 14th, 2010
6:22 am
Well, I’m no longer looking forward to the coming season. Here’s the facts. We have no speed. None. We plan to hit our best number two hitter as leadoff man. We have a totally unproven closer. He has great stuff, but that may not be enough. Our rotation is OK, but it has no chance against the Phillies and has no left-handed quality. The Phillies have just killed us. We need a lefty and some speed or we’re playing for a wild card.
Bobby's Cox
December 14th, 2010
6:29 am
yeah the Phils may dump Ibanez, but they’ll have Domonic Brown and Ben Francisco in the OF now. Brown will probably be the 2011 ROY.
That team is sick. Ya, no bullpen, but when each starter goes 7 or 8, & halladay pitches 12 CG, they don’t need a great bullpen.
The magic number for the Braves is 92. That’s the number of wins it usually takes to win the WC. With an improved Dodgers pitching staff, and the WS Champs & Rockies beating up on a weaker SD and Arizona 38 times a piece, the WC is going to be tough.
Least we can hope for is the Phils offense to sputter like it did last year (likely), and for Lidge to do a 2009 repeat (likely – he didn’t look all that great to me last year, despite the results).
Our Braves offense should be slightly better. Our bullpen, even deeper. If we can field, we’ll be ok, but that is one big ?, as is CF and LF when Chipper goes down. We still have holes.
I think the Marlins are better as well. Mike Stanton will have a big year & their SP is tough. Expect JV to rebound pitching down south again.
My prediction: it’s early, but 87 wins. We’re going to have the toughest inter-division games out of anyone in the NL. And, I still don’t like the offense unless McLouth/Schafer return to form and can swipe bags at the top of the lineup…
Wide Right
December 14th, 2010
6:35 am
Ugh. I was afraid this would happen. Kudos to the Phillies for getting their top pitchers – halladay and lee – to take less money as free agents. That used to be the way the braves got it done but they had to overpay Lowe.
otisnixonsmokescrack!
December 14th, 2010
6:36 am
..giants are laughing about this?? really?? it’s like me saying i smirked when the yanks signed tex,/c.c./a.j.(at the time)/swisher. totally stole the phils thunder. you gotta play the games. but lee had one bad ps start. c.c. got clowned by the phils in 2008 ps. then pitched great for the yanks, including 2 good stars vs the phils in 2009 ws. giants won, but that was yr. time to turn te page.
Bartman n Orl
December 14th, 2010
6:55 am
Arkansas Transplant
Not a bad idea. I do like that Lowe found his groove last year but this will be his last in Atl no matter. So sell while his stock is up. I’m not sure how well the Yankee farm is stocked though… and that should matter to some degree. I know your mostly just wanting to dump $$$….hmmm, but if they would also take K.K. as well…then who cares what the prospects are like…lol If they could add a Brett Gardner to that somehow, that wouldn’t be too bad.
TommyP
December 14th, 2010
7:07 am
Great comments from the all-nighters. Usually it’s a strange read but it was great reading this morning.
N8: I echo just about every statement you made last night.
Incredible signing by the Phils. The team to beat just got better.
I will say this, however. Wren doesn’t need to go out and do anything to counter the Phils. That’s an old Steinbrenner move that was made countless times since the ’70s and hardly ever worked. (or a Mets move that countered whatever the Yanks did) Wren will focus on US and keep trying to improve our team. We don’t have the budget to keep up with the Phils.
I would be happy to hear Wren acquire a right-handed complement to McLouth that has youth and upside. A mystery Wagner signing for cheap and 1-year would make me giddy. And a utility guy that can play all over would be nice.
Good to be talking baseball in mid-December.
JasonInFL
December 14th, 2010
7:07 am
I am not one that normally worries about moves that other teams make. As long as our team takes care of business…
But, man, that Phils rotation is some freaking tough. Wow.
JasonInFL
December 14th, 2010
7:09 am
Oh, and I guess Heyman was right and should rib the ESPN guys just a little, huh? It appears as though there was a “mystery” team that so many were opining against…
otisnixonsmokescrack!
December 14th, 2010
7:12 am
..the phils 2011 rotation will be the greatest show on dough.
jeffrey d
December 14th, 2010
7:32 am
Crap, Lee signed with Philly?? Really?
MikeInFl
December 14th, 2010
7:34 am
I trust that everybody who is “ballgaming” 2011 because the Phils signed Lee DID pick the Giants to win the World Series in 2010, right?
BravesFanChris26
December 14th, 2010
7:40 am
I’m not scared of Phillies by any means.
Sure they’ll have one heckuva rotation, but they’re still going to lack offensively. They lost Werth who was good balance in their hefty lefty lineup. Speaking of, they’re still lefty hefty in the lineup. Not to mention their main two offensive threats are one year older and coming off injury years despite Phillies making it to the post season.
On paper Halladay/Lee/Oswalt/Hamels is the best rotation in the NL and maybe even the whole majors. However while pitching can win you championships, you need offense to get there. Until/Unless Phillies get an offensive threat to replace Werth, Phillies rotation is a bit scary, but they aren’t unbeatable by any means due to the offensive deficiencies.
Wow...
December 14th, 2010
7:47 am
Even without Werth, their offense is still better than the Braves
Gary O
December 14th, 2010
7:50 am
N8 raises a good point. On paper, the Phillies are the clear favorites to win the NL East.
Fortunately, the games are not played on paper. Was there anyone who thought the Red Sox would miss the playoffs last year? Things happen (injuries, slumps, underperforming etc).
I just hope Chipper can come back healthy, play solid D at 3B, with a high OBP, and some timely hits. And I’m looking forward to seeing what kind of defense Uggla plays at 2B.
O.J.
December 14th, 2010
7:51 am
Really, the Phillies sign Lee??? WTF, how is that even possible? Where are they getting the money for this? I thought they were tapped out on already high contracts and they can afford another 24 million a year? BS, complete BS.
Oh well, just have to beat Lee as well I guess. I mean, their staff is awesome, but Oswalt and Hamels are very hittable.
Just total BS.
jeffrey d
December 14th, 2010
7:51 am
I’m not scared of Phillies by any means.
Oh, well I am. They’ve got a BA rotation, and an offense that includes MVPs Howard and Rollins, perrenial top 5 MVP Utley, and McFann’s favorite, Victorino.
Gary O
December 14th, 2010
7:55 am
BravesFanChris26,
You should be concerned about the Braves offense too. Who knows what to expect from 38 year old Chipper coming off an injury, Freeman is a rookie, Nate has struggled, AGon can be hit or miss at times, and who knows if Heyward will have the dreaded “sophomore slump”.
JasonInFL
December 14th, 2010
7:58 am
to say you are not scared of the phils is pretty foolish really. I am not calling you you foolish per se, but yes, of course the Phils are scary. They were scary before Lee. I mean, an offense that has Howard, Utley, Rollins, and Victorino with good hitters like Polanco and Ruiz in there as well can’t be THAT bad.
Chopshop
December 14th, 2010
8:03 am
What a change of events for the NL East. I really felt good about the Braves chances against the Phillies. However, now it is clear we are the second best team in the division. Quite a downer ! At least the Braves Top 10 is available on BA website tomorrow.
O.J.
December 14th, 2010
8:03 am
Honestly, the more that I think about it, Halladay is the only one on that staff that bothers me, thats it.
Lee is 1-1 against the Braves with a 5.06 ERA. Not too scary at all.
O.J.
December 14th, 2010
8:08 am
Our staff is really good as well guys, I mean, we still have Huddy, Hanson, and Jurrjens. Lowe can be spotty, but he showed in September he still knows how to pitch. And Minor, give him a full season with some rest, he will be good.
TommyP
December 14th, 2010
8:10 am
OJ: We have a good staff. Phils have a great staff. (starting, that is)
O.J.
December 14th, 2010
8:14 am
TommyP, I know it, but overall, our bullpen will be better than theirs, and I am sure we can match up well with their starters. Only difference in their starters and ours is basically experience. We definitely have starters that have the stuff, they just havent been around as long.
I like our overall staff compared to theirs.
TommyP
December 14th, 2010
8:15 am
I would imagine the Braves will bring in a few more non-roster guys and scan spring training rosters to fill the last spots.
I know our bullpen looks really good right now but is Marek on the outside looking in? Damn. That tells me how talented our pen will be this year. He tore it up last year. Potential “Nasty Boys” trilogy with those young studs.
For the hardcores….which player(s) in SD’s outfield were non-tendered besides Gwynn? Cunningham? That’s a guy I’d like to have on the bench.
TommyP
December 14th, 2010
8:17 am
OJ: Lowe and Huddy have been around forever. Experience is not the difference in the staffs.
Halladay might be the best in the majors. Lee is one of the best in the majors. Hamels bounced back big time and can dominate. Oswalt is their 4TH STARTER.
It’s OK to admit their starting staff is dominant.
Kat
December 14th, 2010
8:20 am
Instead of saying ‘have a good day’ like he normally does before he heads to work early, my boyfriend woke me up with “the Phillies got Lee”…not something I really wanted to wake up to. Blahh.
Thundersticks
December 14th, 2010
8:23 am
Could Lee signing with Philly actually help the Braves? Stay with me here.
The Yankees are now in desperate need for another #1/#2 SP. They also have plenty of offense to spare. The Braves have several #1/#2 SP and could really use another bat.
The Yankees need a guy like Lowe. Could a trade of Lowe for Swisher or Granderson at the center be on the horizon?
I realize I’m pushing it now, but what about McLouth and Lowe for Granderson and some low level prospect? For the Yankees, money is not an issue.
Don’t know if any of this will happen, but I’m just saying……….
JerseyGil
December 14th, 2010
8:24 am
Tips My Hat to Ruben Amaro to pull Lee deal….The Different Between Braves Gm & Phillis GM…are Fans in the Stand….You put People in the stand and your Payroll going up….Phillis Ticket already going thru the Root…
TommyP
December 14th, 2010
8:25 am
Thundersticks: I was thinking the same thing. I’d listen on Lowe but not Jurrjens. If the Yanks can’t find anything, who knows?
TommyP
December 14th, 2010
8:29 am
Will Phils pitchers set a record with the fewest walks allowed in a season?
Halladay and Lee are two of the best in the game at not walking hitters.
ncscoots
December 14th, 2010
8:31 am
Prediction? Braves finish with 92 wins. Win the wild card. While finishing about 11-12 games behind the Phils.
So, what, 104 wins for the Phillies? I don’t think you really have an idea of how hard it is to win 100 games in a season, regardless of the talent you’re running out there every night. There are just too many things that can impact a season.
Might as well archive this one, nathan. If I’m wrong, then you can bring it up at your convenience, but I put the Phillies’ odds of winning 100+ games at effectively zero. They certainly become the favorite in the division, but to count them double-digit games better than the Braves? That, my friend, is ludicrous.