Braves have able young replacement for Wagner

If someone said in April the Braves would lose both closer Billy Wagner and backup closer Takashi Saito to injuries, I think most of us would’ve thought that meant serious problems come the ninth inning of a close, crucial game.

Who knew this kid would be ready this quickly? Kimbrel's put up jaw-dropping numbers since he got to the majors.

But that’s because we could never have expected Craig Kimbrel to be this good. Or Jonny Venters, for that matter.

Bit the kids have been more than alright, and I’m here to say that the Braves, if they’ve lost Wagner for the rest of the division series (surely they have, even if it’s not official yet), and if Saito’s not ready to pitch in consecutive games, or pitch at all, are still going to be OK at closer.

Kimbrel’s been that good.

For me, he passed the last test, erased the last concern, when he struck out four batters while pitching perfect eighth and ninth innings of Friday’s Game 2 division-series win at San Francisco, before charged-up crowd that was the largest to ever attend a game at AT&T Park.

The 22-year-old Alabaman from Huntsville has got, er, – what’s a Sunday blog-acceptable way to say this? – stones. He’s got stones to go with that golden arm. A baby-faced assassin with a 96-97 mph fastball.

So unless Wagner recovers quicker than anyone we’ve ever known from oblique-muscle injury, Kimbrel seems not only the best option, but an entirely suitable option. Experienced be damned.

And if it works out where the opposition potentially has got some tough left-handed batters coming up in the ninth inning, then swap Kimbrel with Venters and have the rookie lefty handle the closer duties in that case. Lefties hit .198 with 46 strikeouts in 96 at-bats against Venters this season.

Overall, opponents hit just .204 off Venters, including .169 with runners on.

His opponents’ average rose steadily as “Everyday” Jonny’s innings mounted, from a .160 opponents’ average in April to .185 in June, .200 in August, .260 in September.

But he’s had a chance to get some rest in the past week, and Venters had three strikeouts in 2-2/3 innings of two appearances in the division series. (I know, big shocker that he worked at least an inning in both games, right?)

Getting back to Kimbrel, most of you would probably agree that he’s exceeded our expectations. I mean, he’s been exceptional by any standard, but utterly spectacular for such a young guy with no previous major league experience.

Here’s what I mean: Kimbrel had a 0.44 ERA and .125 opponents’ average in 21 appearances during the regular season, with nine hits, two runs (one earned), 16 walks and 40 strikeouts.

Lefties hit .176 (6-for-34) against him, with seven walks and 18 strikeouts.

Righties hit .079 (3-for-38) with nine walks and 22 strikeouts.

But that doesn’t tell the full story. Because Kimbrel only got better as the season wore on, despite going back and forth from Triple-A a few times.

Wagner didn't look like he'd be ready to pitch again anytime soon after injuring a left oblique muscle on Friday night in San Francisco.

Let’s break out the even more jaw-dropping stats on Craig K, as in K.

During the regular season, opponents went 4-for-40 with 21 strikeouts against him with runners on base. With runners in scoring position, it dropped to 2-for-30, with eight walks and 19 strikeouts.

With two strikes, opponents were 3-for-50 (.060) with five walks and 40 strikeouts during the regular season.

He walked three in his third big-league appearance on May 15 against Arizona, and here’s what he has done since then, including his two perfect division-series appearances:

Twenty appearances, 21 innings, 7 hits allowed, 1 unearned run, 0 earned runs, 11 walks, 41 strikeouts.

Folks, that’s utter dominance. Two strikeouts per inning, one hit every three.

From a 22-year-old.

In 12 appearances at Turner Field, Kimbrel has allowed a .071 batting average (3-for-42) with 25 strikeouts and no extra-base hits. That’s silly.

In 14 games in September and October, including postseason, opponents have hit .091 against him (4-for-44) with four singles, 28 strikeouts and five walks.

There aren’t many teams that could absorb the loss of a closer as good as Wagner, who’s had one of his finest seasons. And even if Saito, the veteran the Braves signed as his setup man and backup closer, isn’t able to pitch, the Braves still have the power arm to not just handle the closer role, but thrive.

And no, it’s not Kyle Farnsworth, as intimidating as the sport’s best and most-feared fighter can be. (By the way, do you think the Giants might be thinking a bit of how dangerous it can be facing Farnsworth, after his fastball plunked Freddy Sanchez in 10th inning Friday?)

Farnsworth faced three batters in the 10th inning Friday with the game on the line. He hit the first one, walked the second one, then got the third, Buster Posey, to hit a grounder that Troy Glaus turned into a heart-in-the-throat, inning-ending double play when he made a risky throw to second base instead of the safe one home. Worked out beautifully for Farnsworth, and for the Braves after Rick Ankiel hit that majestic, Bondsian game-winning homer into the bay in the 11th inning.

But despite what Bobby Cox said Saturday, when he mentioned that Farnsworth has closed before as he was going through options to replace Wagner, the Braves surely will keep this in mind before turning to the Frightening One in the 9th unless they absolutely have to: Farnsworth has 63 career save opportunities, and has converted fewer than half of them (27).

Granted, some of those were in difficult, unconventional save situations, when he was a setup man pitching in the seventh or eighth inning, not a closer in the ninth. But that’s still an alarmingly low save-converstion rate, and Farnsworth is just too erratic with his command to use as a closer in the postseason.

Not when the Braves have options as good as Kimbrel and Venters.

Somehow, someway: When I picked the Braves to beat the Giants in five games, I openly admitted I was doing so despite logic, statistics and home-field advantage that should have – and did in the eyes of most observers – make the Giants the clear favorites.

After two games in San Francisco, I’ll stick with my Braves-in-five pick, and again point out it’s done not because of the stats, but in spite of them.

This Braves team is Team Intangible. This is the team that defies those who don’t place much value on things like team chemistry and will-to-win, and those who believe that come-from-behind wins and final at-bat wins are more cyclical and quirky than anything else.

You know who you are. You can’t explain this team.

It’s more of the same so far in the postseason. The Braves split two games in San Francisco to effectively erase the Giants’ home-field advantage.

The Braves split two games at raucous AT&T Park despite hitting .183 with three walks, 24 strikeouts and a .215 OBP.

To repeat, the Braves hit .183, struck out 24 times in 71 at-bats, and posted a .215 OBP (and a .486 OPS).

And they are 1-1, and now home for two games at the ballpark where they fashioned the best home record (56-25) in baseball this year.

The Braves need two more wins to make sure these aren't the last games Cox manages in Atlanta.

♣ Facing lefty today: The Braves, who struggle far more against lefties than against righties, had only one plate appearance against a lefty in the first two games of the series. That’s right, one.

They’ll face a lefty starter today, Jonathan Sanchez.

Sanchez went 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA and puny .162 opponents’ average in his last nine starts this season, with 61 strikeouts and 26 walks in 56 innings.

Against the Braves, he’s 1-2 with a 5.55 ERA in five starts, including 0-1 with a 7.56 ERA in two this season.

Nate McLouth is 3-for-7 with a homer against Sanchez, and Brian McCann is 3-for-7.

The Braves will start Tim Hudson, who went 1-4 with a 6.10 ERA in five starts before rebounding to go 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA in his final two starts of the season, both on short rest.

Hudson has allowed eight homers in his past five starts, and the Giants have some home-run hitters, for sure.

Hudson is 5-4 with a 3.56 ERA in 13 starts against the Giants, including 20 with a 2.27 ERA in his past five. Hudson allowed only six hits and two runs in 15 innings of two starts against the Giants this season.

In his postseason career, Hudson is only 1-3 with a 3.97 ERA in nine starts, including 0-2 with a 5.10 ERA in his past six. But he last started a postseason game in 2005, when he went 0-1 in two starts against Houston for the Braves.

#Braves lineup: 1. Infante 3B, 2. Heyward RF, 3. Lee 1B, 4. McCann C, 5. Diaz LF, 6. Gonzalez SS, 7. Conrad 2B, 8. Ankiel CF, 9. Hudson RH

Braves lineup, Game 3

1. Infante 3B
2. Heyward RF
3. Lee 1B
4. McCann C
5. Diaz LF
6. Gonzalez SS
7. Conrad 2B
8. Ankiel CF
9. Hudson RHP

♣ In closing… Can anyone name the last time the Braves won back-to-back postseason games?

Give up?

It was 2002, when they beat these Giants in Games 2 and 3 of the division series, Game 2 in Atlanta and Game 3 on the road. The Braves then lost games 4 and 5 to drop the series.

Since their last consecutive postseason wins, the Braves have gone 6-12 with a .237 batting average and 5.05 ERA in their past 18 playoff games.

OK, gotta get to the ballpark. Let’s close with one from our unofficial blog house band from Athens and Muscle Shoals. You can hear it/see it here.

“HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE” by Drive-By Truckers (Shanna Tucker)

You ain’t much of a player and you ain’t playin’ for free.

You just know all the chatter and you’ve been chattin’ at me.

Now you’re takin’ me down with a home field advantage.

And you’re callin’ me out with a home field advantage.

♦

You may have thrown me a curveball. Yeah, you threw a doozie at me.

You ain’t too fast cause you’re so tall. You threw a doozie at me.

And now you’re takin’ me down with a home field advantage.

And you’re callin’ me out with a home field advantage.

♦

You don’t know what to do. Yeah, you’re lookin’ around.

Nobody’s at home and you don’t know the count.

Well, you break and run just to tie it up.

♦

You’re takin’ me down with a home field advantage.

And you’re callin’ me out with a home field advantage.