3:31 pm August 31, 2010, by David O'Brien
August 31st, 20104:33 pm
WAR is hell…
mike jay, Maddux’s career BABiP was .286. He was also underrated as a strikeout pitcher.
Glavine’s career BABiP was .285. He supports your argument a little better than Maddux but he never had a BABiP in the .240’s.
The argument here is that Hudson’s defense and luck are more responsible for him getting outs more so than for other pitchers.
I hear what you are saying Shaun. But for me, this is an oversimplified position. Until the stat can account for the quality of the batted ball (dribbler in front of the plate vs. a rope down the line) it is lacking.
Brian SC is correct, an abnormally low BABIP does indicate that the ERA is not as likely to be sustainable over the long haul. This is generally true.
But it does not equate to luck. It doesn’t.
It equates to this: pitchers than can get batters to swing and miss have more room for error… pitchers than can’t get guys to swing and miss have less room for error.
Thus, the ERA is not as likely to be sustained. But that does not mean that Hudson is lucky this year. It means he is pithing his rear end off despite having less room for error.
August 31st, 20104:34 pm
Shaun “The argument here is that Hudson’s defense and luck are more responsible for him getting outs more so than for other pitchers.”
He has done this consistently over his career. He has been having a season that is better than his norm but so would any of the cy young winners from the past.
You picked up the new Bingham disc? What about the new Eels record?
so Zobrist in 2009 was a better contributor to his team’s bottom line than Pujols?
.297, 27 HR, 91 R, 91 RBI, while playing Gold Glove caliber 2nd base? Yes, I’m going to say he was more valuable last year.
August 31st, 20104:35 pm
Everything has come together for Hudson in 2010. I don’t think anyone here can dispute that.
What makes Huddy appear so lucky to stathounds, including myself, is that he’s a groundball pitcher getting away with that low BABiP. It doesn’t take anything away from his season, though. The man has been putting the ball on the bad parts of bats all year. The fact that he has a relatively low career BABiP is a testament to his ability to avoid the barrel, so it isn’t all just luck. A lot of it is, but not all. In my opinion, his ERA+ (179…a career-high by 14 points), his record, and the team he plays on are all likely to help him win his first, and probably last, Cy Young award.
August 31st, 20104:36 pm
Any sinker ball pitcher is going to have to rely on their defense
Why the emphasis on the amount of strikeouts a pitcher gets, when today’s hitters care less about strikeouts than hitters from any other era?
This is a classic, circa 2006/2007.
It’s probably why we’ve seen three guys reach 4,000+ K’s in the last 20 years when in the 110 years prior only 1 guy had reached that mark.
August 31st, 20104:37 pm
Anyone who looks at the infielders used by the Braves this year and considers that a contribution to Hudson’s BABIP, has not been paying attention.
Now for a serious topic:
Should the Braves throw Francoeur a few fat pitches tonight so that he will look good for the Rangers’ scouts, prompting them to trade for him? That way, if the Braves face the Rangers in the World Series, they might mistakenly send Francoeur to the plate in a key situation!
Play the long con, Bobby!
Chipper’s best advice to Heyward is which Hooter’s restaurants to avoid.
McFann ♥ ;Ô; ♥ ;Ô; ♥
What I seriously want to know about WAR—and I mean, this is a for real question, not some kind of smart-alecky thing—is does it somewhat depend on what the team’s record is? Because, for example, BMac’s WAR this year is 4.4 (really shot up since last Tuesday), which is better than his 2008 WAR of 4.0, and his WAR in 2006 was 4.5. 2006 was much better than this year in a lot of ways except defense, and 2008 was very solid. But the Braves had crummy records those years, so does that effect the WAR?
That might be worded rather poorly, but I am very curious to know the answer. Thank you!
Wayne in Utah
I once went to WAR, but couldn’t stay because my BABIP was too short!
Hudson should have a BABiP of .054, but that damn D has let him down
August 31st, 20104:38 pm
BABiP in the .240’s
What I’m looking at has Hudson at .248. So if it goes up .002 points, or in other words, if he’d allowed one more hit up to this point, it’ll be a little easier for you to swallow.
August 31st, 20104:39 pm
good one wayne
Anyone who looks at the infielders used by the Braves this year and considers that a contribution to Hudson’s BABIP, has not been paying attention
HA! But on the other hand it could make for a strong case for “luck”
a .223, or a .235, or a whatever) BABiP simply isn’t sustainable.
tim hudson has sustained a .244 bapip for 27 starts. how long until he gets credit, instead of blaming it on luck?
ground balls are one thing, but the type of balls put in play on huddy are perfect for the infielders. he is getting WEAK contact, not just contact. he is doing something right.
shaun It just may mean that Hudson is a very good pitcher having a very good season and that luck and defense are making him look even better than how he himself has performed.
he himself is the reason all those groundballs are so playable. hes getting weak contact, and its on purpose.
Are we going to be broadcast on the MLB network tonight?
Bartholomew (Bat) Masterson
August 31st, 20104:40 pm
are the Braves going to bring up anyone who might can score from 2nd base on a single if the team needs a pinch-runner?
Sorry that makes no sense, Heap can score from second on a single. No offense, McFann.
What I seriously want to know about WAR—and I mean, this is a for real question, not some kind of smart-alecky thing—is does it somewhat depend on what the team’s record is?
That is an excellent question. And the asnwer is no.
Mac’s having a very good year. he’s just been more up and down this season than he normally is. But his overall productiveness is right on par with a normal season for him.
Also, he is a little better defensively this year in terms of the measurable stats. So that helps him a little.
got to go….go braves!!!
J-Hey the Hero
August 31st, 20104:41 pm
DOB- knock on wood… we don’t need the Phillies showing us that they actually do have a come back left in the tank
It was fun blogging today. thanks for interesting discussion
The team’s record doesn’t have any affect on a player’s WAR value. What would have an effect is the baseline “replacement” numbers for catchers. So if the calculations used say that there are better or worse replacement catchers available in any given year, then BMac could have a lower or higher WAR, respectively, even if his performance was identical from year to year.
August 31st, 20104:42 pm
timthebrave, he hasn’t consistently allowed a BABiP in the .240’s. And the argument is not that Cy Young winners don’t have better seasons than norm. The argument is that Hudson’s very good season looks like a Cy Young-worthy season largely because of luck and/or defense. The argument is also not that Hudson is having a bad season or that Hudson would be nothing without defense and/or luck. Hudson is the best starter on the Braves. The argument is that defense and/or luck push him into Cy Young candidacy more so than other candidates. So if one votes for Hudson, they may be overlooking someone who has performed better. Not that Hudson has performed poorly at all.
I go with vision on that one if I had to pick…he’s not that fat. _ McFann
Why the qualifier? Are you saying Heap is sorta fat? tsk tsk
August 31st, 20104:43 pm
That would be a slightly different kind of “luck” than that being bandied about in this WAR conversation, LOL.
McFann called Mac fat? Oh my.
RC excellent point. offense is down at the catcher position this year. Some of the top guys from the last five years have been hurt (Posado, Martinez) and other guys that have put up some good numebers in previous years (Soto) have not this year.
Which is why we should all LOVE Mac all the more. His consistency.
August 31st, 20104:44 pm
Here’s a discussion that I fully expect, but do not want to see here, next season:
“Why is Hudson’s ERA 1.3 runs higher than last season? What’s wrong with him? He’s getting old.”
It will be true that he’s getting old, but the other part might just be the baseball gods doing a little market correction.
August 31st, 20104:45 pm
I am 6′1″ and 235 and I am NOT fat! I am sturdy.
So no, Mac is NOT fat either. I will let you guys know if he gets fat!
The argument is that defense and/or luck push him into Cy Young candidacy more so than other candidates.
Again, a serious over simplification. A low BABIP = lucky pitcher.
Can you at least ackowledge the shortcomings of the stat given that it does not measure the quality of the batted ball?
August 31st, 20104:46 pm
I wouldn’t say any pitcher has performed “better” than Hudson….simply that their performance is more sustainable. However, what has happened, happened, and whether by luck or anything else, Hudson’s results show that he has been one of the best pitchers in the National League this year. Since luck cannot be measured, the only fair evaluation (in my mind) is to base the voting on what the player has actually done, and Hudson has recorded outs and prevented runs at a rate which should put him in the Cy Young discussion.
August 31st, 20104:47 pm
Well said Snotboogie, well said.
August 31st, 20104:48 pm
Too many stats guys!
It’s kinda like the judge said about pornography. I can’t define it, but I know it when I see it.
Huddy is pitching great this year. I can see it!
August 31st, 20104:49 pm
Francoeur is batting 4th tonight….man, the Mets must really hate the Phillies
The WAR stat is not a offensive “power ranking.” The bar is set differently for each position, and it has to calculated over a set period of time. Its never an instantaneous ranking. Pujols is a superior hitter to Zobrist in almost any measurable way. But that doesn’t necessarily make him a more valuable players. There’s a lot of 1B who can put up big offensive numbers. How many guys can put up numbers like Zobrist did last year while also playing 1B, SS 2B, and CF. Zobrist’s skill set (for 2009 and only 2009) was harder to replace than Pujols.
The same argument can be made for McCann. If he was a 1B his offensive numbers would be pretty pedestrian. But he’s a catcher. His value come in his ability to put up offensive numbers while also playing at position that’s historically weak offensively.
August 31st, 20104:50 pm
yeah, the babip stat doesnt allow for a difference in type of ground balls. huddy has like a 75% groundball rate, and it logically follows that more of those balls would turn into outs then they would if they were line drives. if your groundball rate is high and you babip is low, i think that indicates alot less luck than if your linedrive rate was high and your babip was low.
But Wayne, how do you know which porn is the best porn out there? You need all kinds of stats for that
My boss told me that my sales numbers are artificially high this year because my sales per contact rate are down. I’ve become more efficient in managing my contacts so that I can make more contacts. But he’s not going to give me the bonus I should get because he thinks I’m lucky.
I feel pretty angry about it.
August 31st, 20104:52 pm
Good luck with that one!
I’ve generally been avoiding the BABIP conversation, but there is a stat called “xBABIP”(expected BABIP) which takes into account ground balls, line drives, fly balls, etc. For what it’s worth, groundballs tend to have a much higher BABIP than fly balls, which makes what Hudson is doing that much more remarkable.
BTW, had anybody heard if Manny got a haircut?
August 31st, 20104:53 pm
Another stat to consider when talking about the perceived lack luster or inconsistent Braves offense: OBP (yes, it is a stat and yes it is on the scoreboard). While the Braves are eighth in the NL in team batting average (.260) they are first in OBP at .342. They lead the league in walks with 33 more than the next closest team.
Interesting note: The Diamondbacks are 2nd in the NL in walks and first in the NL in K’s. First in K’s by a large margin: 137 more K’s then the Marlins, who are second on that list. So I guess we can assume Arizona doesn’t swing at anything, balls or strikes.
August 31st, 20104:54 pm
Right. A low BABIP does not equate to a lucky pitcher. It equates to a pitcher pitching with equal effectiveness despite a smaller margin for error.
So I agree it means the ERA is not as likely to be sustained… because of the margin for error… not luck.
I’m right. And I’m pretty sure I’m right…. pretty sure.
August 31st, 20104:55 pm
John Heyman is saying the Rangers might be making a play for Francoeur.
Rob from SC
August 31st, 20104:56 pm
Is there any reason why Stephen Marek did not get a callup? I realize the Kimbrel can’t come up until the 7th, but Marek was awesome during the season.
August 31st, 20104:57 pm
I mean, we’re talking here as if luck is something to be denigrated, reviled, cast to the curb with a sneer, and treated like the ugly girl at 2AM, LOL. I assure you that success is merely the meeting of good luck and available opportunity, and Hudson has had his share of both this year. It’s what career years are made of, after all. You don’t get penalized for being good AND lucky…you go home with the prom queen, instead.
Huddy won’t be able to sustain that BABIP in the future? Absolutely, and who gives a bleep? He’s having a magical year on a magical team (because I sure can’t figure this year out, otherwise), and this is the year he’s in CY contention. And luck has EVERYTHING to do with it.
I was just indicating that asking Shaun to acknowledge the weakness of a stat he is so rabid about (is there one he isnt rabid about?) has about as high a chance of success as a weakly hit groundball when Huddy’s pitching.
DAP, it happens regularly that pitchers go 20-30 starts with a low BABiP. But a BABiP much lower than .290 is not sustainable.
Yes, Hudson is getting weak contact and deserves credit for that. That’s not the issue. The issue is that he’s getting outs so often on batted balls that it is extremely unlikely that it is all because of weak contact and groundball-inducting skills. If he’s able to sustain a BABiP this much lower than .290-.300 for the rest of this season and into next season, he has figured something out that literally nobody has since probably the Dead Ball Era, if then.
This begs the question, if Hudson’s skills are what is allowing him to post a BABiP that low, why hasn’t he done it every year? I understand his skills allowing him to post a BABiP in the .280’s versus the .290-.300 range. But the .240’s? If his skills are allowing him to do that, you’d think he would have done the same thing in the past and he would have posted a BABiP in at most the .250’s or .260’s over the course of his career. The fact that he hasn’t done that is a good indication that a BABiP as low as his this season is probably not entirely due to his skills.
Why is this so hard to understand?
I know it’s hard for sports fans to be objective. As a fan, I would like nothing more than for Hudson to win a Cy Young and win the next 4. I hope he does. But reality is that Hudson is more fortunate this year than his skills indicate. I’m glad for that. It means the Braves are winning and as a fan that’s all I care about. But I can’t sit here and say I think Hudson deserves the Cy Young, as much as I want it to be true.
August 31st, 20104:58 pm
My point with the Hudson thing is who cares if it was lucky….luck is a part of the game. They don’t retroactively give the batters hits or the teams runs because Hudson was “lucky”. I don’t think that Cy Young voting should be based on K’s because “the pitcher was lucky”. There is no way to know how lucky he was. Again, if I’m running a team and looking to sign a free agent, I’m definitely paying attention to K-rate and BABIP. But if I’m voting for awards….what happened, happened. Give it to the guy who did the best job preventing runs from scoring and giving his team innings. No matter how he went about it.
August 31st, 20104:59 pm
Shaun arrives to place a statitistical damper on Huddy’s stellar season.
They have a league-high 149 runs in August and rank second with 36 HRs, behind Arizona’s 38. As for the Phillies, they have 110 runs and a meager 16 HRs in August, 20 fewer homers than the Braves.
The Braves are only 2nd to the CHI-SOX in the Majors in the month of August with runs scored: CHW have scored 151 runs and ATL with 149.
In August, the Bravos are 4th in the MLB in Homers with 36, DBacks 38, Jays 40, and the Yanks with 41. 3rd in Slugging Percentage, 6th in On-Base Percentage, but 14th overall in batting average in the Majors.
August 31st, 20105:00 pm
Don’t you think it’s less accurate for prognosticators to try to separate out “luck”, than to simply base the award on the events that occured?
P-Town Brave ©
Nice group of callups…
A good lineup to play v Pelfrey would be:
I would also consider this lineup Thu. against Santana:
Coach (2011 or Bust)
Calling Tim Hudson’s performance this year lucky is just pure stupidity defined. Or we could just say the Shaun has dumb cornered. Hey Shaun, when you attempt to sound smart, you just reveal your ignorance when it comes to real baseball and not some fantasy league drivel.
I’m not sure as to why Scott Proctor was added other than he’s got the “veteran designation”. Also, Craig Kimbrel and Cristian Martinez deserve to be on the September roster. J.C. Boscan was a surprise too.
As for adding Freddie Freeman, he has earned it but this is as much a public relations move as anything. The kid won’t play much if at all.
Derek Lowe, 14 seasons with 2300 innings piled up while never hitting the DL, and his elbow is barking. Add the three up and TJ surgery isn’t far behind. So it’s a good thing that Kenshin Kawakami is still around.
AGon ever going to have a day off? Guy could probably use it. He played nearly every game with Toronto. Why not give Diory a spot start? Alex isn’t the youngest guy on the team.
August 31st, 20105:01 pm
RC, the question is how much credit does Hudson deserve for all his outs? It seems that, yes, he deserves a great deal of credit. But also an unusually high number of his outs are because of his defense and because of balls being hit in the right spot.
Hudson should be the leader for the Cy Young………..no other starting Pitcher has a lower Era and if I remember correctly from what was broadcast the other day…..he hasn’t lost a game in which the Brave’s have scored 3 or more Runs…..they get him 3 and it’s almost over.A couple more wins and it should be a no-brainer.
It could be that Hudson knew he had a stellar shortstop playing behind him, so he focused less on K’s and more on getting deep into games (which to me, is the most overlooked stat of all).
Will the Braves try to add a backup infielder/utility guy before tonight’s deadline or are they comfortable with Diory Hernandez?
Prado would get the day off Thu. as he is only hitting .167 v Santana w/ 0 RBI in 18 AB
Derrek Lee is .333
Rick Ankiel is .444
Matt Diaz is .533
August 31st, 20105:02 pm
If I might take a guess at your question? My thoughts would be that we have a very strong bullpen right now. Obviously with it being the beginning of September, some guys are a bit tired or banged up (Moylan?).
Bobby has always relied on veterans more than rookies. It took him some time in the early part of the year to get to a point where Venters got more and more important innings.
So, my guess would be Marek would be a back of the bullpen guy IF he were brought up, but we have a boat load of those guys already in Farnsworth, Martinez, Kimbrel, Proctor and Kawakami. Then you have guys like Moylan and O’Flaherty as middle guys, and set up guys are Venters and Saito.
My guess is it is just due to the numbers and the overall success of our pen this year.
Bay Area Steve
August 31st, 20105:03 pm
scoots, I don’t know about anyone else, but I tend to treat ugly girls quite well at 2AM.
They need a stat for quality of treatment in relation to time.
I have a feeling he will play a lot more towards the latter part of the month. Bobby will give him his usual garbage time ABs initially and once he proves he can hit ML pitching, he might find himself getting more meaningful ABs. More so if Lee or Glaus dont hit well.
August 31st, 20105:04 pm
Shaun, how can you know how much credit he deserves for his outs? Until there is a concrete way to determine that, the voting should simply be based upon what happened, in my opinion.
My example is that if McCann wins Game 7 of the World Series with a wind-aided HR, they aren’t going to take it away because the wind was blowing out that day. It’s all a part of the game, and if you separate some random factors and not others you are unfairly punishing players for randomness that isn’t fully understood. Either figure out a way to eliminate all of the noise, or none of it. There can’t be any in between if you are trying to be fair.
Coach (2011 or Bust), when did I ever say Hudson’s performance is lucky? I’m saying an unusually high number of his outs are due to factors that have little to do with his performance and therefore it is making his overall numbers look good and therefore making him look like a better Cy Young candidate than he actually is. I’ve repeatedly said Hudson has been very good and said he was the best pitcher on the team. My argument is that his performance, though still very good, probably isn’t Cy Young-worthy; it just looks that way because of factors that are beyond his control.
Oh…and the people who say Hudson is lucky haven’t watched many games this year…….Brave’s or otherwise…I know…I have watched hundreds of games of any and all teams….not much too do while waiting for job offers!
August 31st, 20105:05 pm
I guess this means that MArek doesn’t fit into our long term plans.
Mets blog and phillies blog are goin after both there managers haha..
That just means he is due…. (Prado, that is)
August 31st, 20105:06 pm
AGon ever going to have a day off? Guy could probably use it. He played nearly every game with Toronto. Why not give Diory a spot start?
Tough to do in such a tight race. Can possibly afford it when Glaus plays 3rd someday (if at all) so that Infante can play SS. Probably get him some early showers in the blow-outs.
Why I did this? I don’t know. But here it is.
1990 Cy Young BABiP .248
1991 Cy Young BABiP .259
1992 Cy Young BABiP .254
1993 Cy Young BABiP .271
1994 Cy Young BABiP .252
1995 Cy Young BABiP .245
1996 Cy Young BABiP .281
1997 Cy Young BABiP .257
1998 Cy Young BABiP .276
1999 Cy Young BABiP .289
2000 Cy Young BABiP .330
2001 Cy Young BABiP .320
2002 Cy Young BABiP .287
2003 Cy Young BABiP .248
2004 Cy Young BABiP .280
2005 Cy Young BABiP .283
2006 Cy Young BABiP .287
2007 Cy Young BABiP .777
2008 Cy Young BABiP .309
2009 Cy Young BABiP .288
August 31st, 20105:07 pm
Why is this so hard to understand?
Look, Shaun this does not have to be explained by luck.
A power pitcher has more margin for error. If you throw 97 MPH and have a nasty slider that sits as 88-89 with late break, you can miss your location by even 3-4 inches and get away with it. And that is why your performance is more sustainable over time.
If I hit 91-ish with my fastball, etc. etc. etc. I don’t have the luxury of missing my spots by 3-4 inches. I have to dead on with my location. And I better be really concistent with my mechanics to ensure I get the late break I need.
It is not likely that either of us are going to be perfect over our careers. Thus you will probably have more consistent performance across a longer range of time.
That does not mean that you can call me lucky if I have a season in which I pitch my rear end off, hitting my spots, getting late movement on my pitches, consistently.
Have you seen Hudson pitch much this year? Guy has been Maddux-like it terms of location and late movement. How many times have you seen a guy crush a ball off of him only to have it caught?
How many times have you seen him go 4-5 consecutive innings where no one is putting good wood on the ball?
It doesn’t have to be explained by luck. Hudson has been very good this year.
It’s similar to trying to judge players that played in the “steriod era”. Unless you know for certain who did and who didn’t, it’s unfair to try and make thin slices. The only option for comparison is to simply look at what happened on the field, and leave it at that. Punishing a pitcher for an abonormally low BABIP is no different to me than dismissing a player’s numbers because you “think” he may have used steriods.
August 31st, 20105:08 pm
RC, there are park factors that account for wind-assisted homers and the like. That’s what the dreaded park-adjusted stats are all about. Adrian Gonzalez has the 8th-best OPS in the NL. Would he be 8th if he played his home games in a more hitter-friendly park? Probably not. Should this matter when the voters consider him for MVP? Absolutely.
Shaun is an idiot!!
And that is obviously a typo for 2007.
August 31st, 20105:09 pm
Well, Huddy has always said he’s never been a strikeout pitcher. And with his GO/AO, why would he want to strive for that. He can go longer into games that most strikeout pitchers by pounding the strike zone with breaking pitches to keep his count between 8-12 pitches per inning.
Can someone explain how BABiP measures luck, if no defensive metrics indicate your team is playing incredible defense?
I dont think that’s the message here. He has shown enough to be a good bullpen arm for the future – just not filling a particular need right now. Plus if you notice, we seem to be using pitchers who have already used up an option this year and so this callup and subsequent send- down will not use up any extra ones. With Marek, it will (I think).
Hey Shaun, you do realize that Tim Hudson’s career .663 winning percentage is better than that of Maddux, Glavine and John Smoltz…….right?
A word for the ignorant one among us, Tim Hudson is not only a Cy Young caliber pitcher, he’s headed to Cooperstown.
scoots, I don’t know about anyone else, but I tend to treat ugly girls quite well at 2AM. _ BAS
There are no ugly girls at 2 am.
August 31st, 20105:10 pm
@Rob: I guess this means that MArek doesn’t fit into our long term plans.
Why would you think that? It’s all a numbers thing. Unless he is dealt over the winter, my guess is Marek gets every chance to make the club next spring. Not being called up in September doesn’t send any sort of statement that a guy is not important. Sometimes it is due to the arb clock. Other times it’s due to the numbers of guys on the big club.
After eventually getting Boscan, McLouth, Glaus, Freeman, Kawakami, Proctor and Kimbrel; Bobby will be bringing up about 2 more guys than he usually does.
I guarantee you, no one has ever won the Cy Young or MVP award based on his WAR or BaBip …. or won a world series game, for that matter.
It is almost comical to hear the discussions.
Coach (2011 or Bust), when did I ever say Hudson’s performance is lucky?
We’re only on page two.. shouldn’t be too hard for you to go find your own references to luck. I don’t mean for that to sounds as DB-ish as it does.
August 31st, 20105:11 pm
“RC, the question is how much credit does Hudson deserve for all his outs? It seems that, yes, he deserves a great deal of credit. But also an unusually high number of his outs are because of his defense and because of balls being hit in the right spot.” shaun
To which I reply….
Imagine how impressive his season would be if he actually had a good defensive team behind him. What the hell would his ERA be? 1.25?? He might have 20 wins already if this team could catch the ball like the Rockies do.
I can remember 2 games where the defense let him down in tight games.
I’m kind of surprised that Stephen Marek didn’t make the callup list. Equally surprised that Scott Proctor did.
RC, I could see your point if Hudson’s BABiP was .280 or maybe even in the .270’s. But when it gets down into the .240’s, maybe you don’t know for certain, but it’s a strong indication that factors besides his own skills were responsible for outs at an abnormally high rate.
TennesseePaul, see. Hudson’s BABiP is low even for a Cy Young candidate and potential winner.
August 31st, 20105:12 pm
I dont mind so much when WAR or BABIP is used as a crutch to lean on and assist. But when some people deem it so important that they use it as a pogo stick, I think its ridiculous.
August 31st, 20105:13 pm
I am instituting the work place WAR here at the office based on how good the day is when someone is out. Whoever replaces our pain in the butt receptionist will have an AWESOME workplace WAR.
N8, the Braves are actually above average at turning batted balls into outs. The Rockies are actually worse than the Braves. The Braves are 7th in the NL in defensive efficiency. The Rockies are 9th.
re: getting ground balls vs. luck.
I’m calling BS on Shaun, again. Greg Maddux induced many, many, many ground balls, and I don’t think it was luck. In fact, when a grounder found a hole in the infield, I thought that was luck, and the reason why Mad Dog never threw a no-no or perfect game.
It’s BS. A pitcher can manipulate where the ball is hit. That isn’t luck, especially for a guy who throws an insane amount of sinkers.
August 31st, 20105:14 pm
Shaun’s not an idiot. Not even close. Could he be little more open-minded to other explanations of phenomena? I think so. But he’s not an idiot.
August 31st, 20105:16 pm
Probably all about arb clock and numbers. Proctor has been in the bigs, and if he doesn’t have it, it’ll be just a nice bonus for him to ride the pine on the big club.
How many stellar bullpen arms do you really need? Wagner, Saito, Venters, O’Flaherty, Moylan, Martinez, Kimbrel, Kawakami, Farnsworth, Proctor……… Marek wouldn’t get much use at all.
Name one pitcher who has sustained a BABiP under .250 (post Dead Ball) for more than 1-2 seasons, then maybe I can believe that inducing batted ball outs is as much a skill as some of you think.
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