Hudson’s in small group of Cy Young favorites

1st

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Salvation a la mode and a cup of tea.

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lets get a W tonight and root root root for the dodgers

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Glen, he was just called up.

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DOB, how has Proctor done in the past 2-3 weeks? Hoping for an indication that he turned the corner…

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Pitcher Kenshin Kawakami was optioned to Danville in the Rookie League – Don’t know about anyone else – but i lol’d at this before i read the explanation.

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Great stuff on Huddy, DOB. Thanks!

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Sorry to post again but don’t want it lost. Here is top WAR for 2010. Some make sense but others seem really out of place
Miguel Cabrera
Josh Hamilton
Joey Votto
Adrian Gonzalez
Jason Heyward
Jose Bautista
Aubrey Huff
Albert Pujols
Shin-Soo Choo
Kevin Youkilis
Ryan Zimmerman
Robinson Cano
Paul Konerko
Corey Hart
Scott Rolen
Carlos Gonzalez
Brian McCann

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Bobby loves to carry 3 catchers in September. He has done that quite regularly.

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Albert Pujols might win the triple crown and still be #8 on the year

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timthebrave,

That list is not up-to-date. The current top 6 are:

1. Hamilton
2. Zimmerman
3. Cano
4. Votto
5. Cabrera
6. Pujols

Zimmerman is the one that really sticks out to me there, but he is having a good year at a premium defensive position, so I understand why he’s there. I really don’t see a problem with any of the others…Cabrera and Pujols are actually tied at 6.0, and Votto is just barely ahead of them at 6.2.

Not sure where that other list came from.

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yea, now that McLouth is back on the team we have our postseason pinch runner.

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There is a couple of guys Braves fans should be showing some love for. These are guys that can very unnoticed by fans while making significant contribuitions to an organization. Give it up for…

Jaime Dismuke (Gwinnett Braves hitting coach)
Kent Willis (Myrtle Beach Pelicans pitching coach)

Big contributions to the organziation this year!

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DOB, what’s your sense of how Cox will use Freeman? Obviously, with Lee on board he’s not going to get many starts. But do you think Cox will treat him (Lee) like he does Mac and maybe throw Freeman a start on an afternoon game after a night game to give his back a rest?

Or do you think Freeman is purely being called up for the occasional PH duty and more to be “around” the club for the stretch run? If I recall correctly, Chipper was a September 93 callup and only got a handful of AB. Don’t remember how early in September he was called up.

I do remember Klesko getting a huge PH HR against the Giants down the stretch that year. Just don’t really recall Chipper even being with the team that much that year.

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Glad they made the right choice for back-up to the back-up catcher I was afraid they may go with Sammons. Boscan was more deserving than Sammons.

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should have been matt young instead of mclouth. and would love to have seen canizares up after the season he’s had at gwinnett, though freeman makes him redundant.

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Just saw a report that Francoeur could be headed to the Rangers….

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Tim,

It all goes back to position scarcity. The theoretical replacement player at 1B is a lot better than the theoretical replacement player at 2B, SS or CF. If Pujols was a 2B he would be at the top of the list.

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I think the idea with Hudson and strikeouts is that he is getting extremely fortunate in terms of how often he is getting outs on balls in play. Now some of that is due to his remarkable ability to get groundballs. He leads the majors in groundball rate by a pretty significant margin. But many would argue that he is getting outs too often on batted balls for it to be completely because of his abilities to induce groundballs. And rewarding him the Cy Young is rewarding him for something that is not entirely because of what he’s done; that his defense and getting breaks deserve a lot of credit for his performance more so than other pitchers.

To put this argument in statistical terms, Hudson’s batting average allowed on balls in play (BABiP) is .244, the third-lowest in baseball. A typical batting average allowed on balls in play is .300. Lots of batted balls are finding gloves, some because of Hudson’s groundball inducement. But a BABiP that low indicates he’s also getting very lucky. Therefore some view Hudson getting the Cy Young as rewarding him for being lucky.

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Can we bring back Andres “Big Cat” Gallaraga for 1 game to field the first ever all Venezuelan infield?

Wouldn’t it make more sense to acquire Miguel Cabrera from the Tigers to round out the all Venezuelan infield? I have heard he is a good player.

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RC, found it online but still why would a possible triple crown winner be #6

Because he’s behind another possible triple crown winner, and a CF and 2b who are tearing up the other league, and he plays 1b, which is the easiest position to get offense from. Hamilton is batting .359 with 31 HR….if he was in the NL, Pujols wouldn’t have a shot at the triple crown.

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I like Zimmerman but I wouldn’t think he is having a better year than the guys underneath him

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N8, yeah, I don’t know how many people saw a season like this coming, but I definitely thought that signing Huddy to a bargain contract and trading either Lowe or Vaz was a no-brainer.

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timthebrave’s list isn’t war rankings; it’s win probability added. and fwiw, heyward leads all rookies in war (his total is the 36th best in the bigs, according to fangraphs).

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Sunday morning at the ballpark, Terry Pendleton and Brian McCann were busting my (chops) about not writing enough concerning Tim Hudson’s Cy Young Award bid.

Guessing ball-busting is frowned upon?

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How can Zimmerman or Cano be there? They seem out of place to me

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But a BABiP that low indicates he’s also getting very lucky.

Theyve got a long way to go before they get me interested in that stat. I’m not against this statisitcal development, this is what progress looks like. But they’ve got a long way to go on this one, to me.

A batted ball is not a batted ball. And the quality of the pitch has a whole lot to do with how solidly that batted ball is hit.

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I know how they are there….Just don’t think they beliong

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I don’t have an answer for the Zimmerman thing

3B is pretty down as a position right now, in terms of talent level. A lot of utility players have played a lot of 3B this season.

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RC, I agree that most of them belong there. If I am to recognize the WAR stat as a really valuable tool it would have to make sense to me all the time. Zimmerman at #2 above a guy in the same league that is beating him in all categories. Pujols is very good defensively as well

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THE LEE FACTOR

Could it be that Derek Lee’s presence on the Braves has had a positive effect on Jason Heyward? It seems so.

Heyward’s really taken off since Lee’s joined the team.

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Pujols and Zimmerman do not play the same position. You can’t just ignore that fact when you’re talking about WAR values.

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Thanks for the new Blog, Chief! Timmy for Cy Young!!!

Ha, yeah, guys, I gave up on that Fillies dude (for now…). Used my time a little more wisely…

GCT Brian still doesn’t block balls consistently as well as I’d like (vision? weight?)

I go with vision on that one if I had to pick…he’s not that fat.

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RC, I just don’t need stats to be broken down that much so that you assign a guy a single number. Why not just give them all letter grades if you are going to break it down like that? Give them all A+ on the year and be done with it

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it looks like Zimmerman does get WAY too much credit for defense.

Run prevention and run creation are just two sides of the same coin. Frankly, it’s easier to prevent runs defensively than generate runs offensively, so I don’t think high credit for defense is out of line (at least, in the context of which you guys are speaking).

Take defense out of the calculation, and you’re not talking about the same thing, anymore. Nothing wrong with that, just different.

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Glen W, the idea is that, yes, some of Hudson getting outs extremely often on batted balls is due to his skills in inducing groundballs. But for him to be getting outs as often as he is on batted balls, it seems very unlikely that it is all because of his skills in inducting groundballs.

Hudson’s career batting average allowed on balls in play is .286. That is somewhat lower than the typical BABiP. Over the course of over 2,000 innings in the big leagues, it’s safe to say Hudson’s groundball inducement leads him to have a somewhat lower than typical BABiP. But this season he’s at .244, which is extremely lower than a typical BABiP. The difference between .286 and .244 is striking. Is it all because of Hudson’s skills at inducing certain types of batted balls? Seems unlikely but tough to speculate, admittedly.

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No BMac tonight, eh? I cann live with that…he’s never faced this lefty before and he’s had a good thing goin’ these last few days. Don’t need some idiot lefty to come along and spoil it. Plus, he could use the rest…

And, it’s like Hillbilly said on the last Blog (dude, you read my mind)—he’s gotta get rested up for PELFREY!!!

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To put this argument in statistical terms, Hudson’s batting average allowed on balls in play (BABiP) is .244, the third-lowest in baseball. A typical batting average allowed on balls in play is .300.

So go back over the last 20 seasons and list all the players you think should have won the Cy Young, and then how many of those players had oppBABiP’s below league average. I think what you’ll find is that just about all of them had “statistical outlier” numbers in various categories. That’s generally what makes their season great. Basically, they win the award because they themselves best represent the statistical outlier. They are far and away from “norm” or the “mean.”

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GT Fan

I didn’t expect his ERA to be as close to 2.00 as it’s been. But two things factored into my thinking he was going to have a great year. It really was pretty simple to deduct.

1) He was having a monster season in 2008 before being shut down, WITH his elbow killing him. In fact he pitched 6 shutout innings in his last start before having the surgery.

2) He looked fine last season in his handful of starts after needing only 12 months to recover from TJ surgery and stated many times that his arm felt better than it had in years.

The only real question was if he would hold up and how deep he could go in games. But it was clear to anybody paying attention that when he was going to be able to pitch, he was going to be very good.

I don’t claim to be a genius. But many people argued with me over the winter that expecting Hudson to come back strong was a mistake.

What’s that? Oh. Never mind. I’m limited according to the N8 imposter at 3:57.

Gotta love douchebags that are afraid to mock other bloggers using their usual moniker. You know…. because being on an anonymous internet blog isn’t enough of a place to “hide”.

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it seems very unlikely that it is all because of his skills in inducting groundballs

Nice straw man here Payne, but I read Glen’s post. Nowhere in it did he say it was all because of his skill.

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That’s generally what makes their season great. Basically, they win the award because they themselves best represent the statistical outlier. They are far and away from “norm” or the “mean.”

Exactly correct, and a point well made.

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Shaun, so what would Hudson have to do to have a good year for which he gets credit?

He is having one of his very best years. He is pithing some of the best baseball of his career. And hitters are not hitting the ball as squarely against him. This does not seem that hard to me.

His best years prior to this year were 2000 and 2003 (if you look at Cy Young voting) and those are the only other seasons where his BABIP was under .260. Was he lucky then too?

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Not sure if I get all the roster moves over the last few days. The Braves send Kimbrel & Martinez back to AAA, recall Kawakami and send him back to the minors for a day, The Martinez/Kawakami swap was supposed to give the team an extra arm for a day, but what about tonight’s game.

If Minor doesn’t have it and the Braves need to go to the ‘pen early, who are they going to bring in? Ankiel?. Moylan just got a cortisone shot & 3 relievers worked at least an inning last night. Maybe Saito can go 3 innings tonight if needed. No problem.

As for the September call-ups, are the Braves going to bring up anyone who might can score from 2nd base on a single if the team needs a pinch-runner? Guess that’s going to be McLouth’s designated role. World’s most expensive pinch-runner.

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is it possible that there is too much emphasis on the importance of striking out batters?

DAP,

That’s a great topic for debate. When the statheads started looking at BABIP, they were wondering why high-strikeout pitchers seemed to produce more consistent seasons than those who “pitched to contact.” Or, the “who would you rather have in their prime, Smoltz or Glavine” debate.

Unless you were Greg Maddux, contact pitchers tended to put up wildly inconsistent seasons, because it seems that if batters put the ball in play, they can elude even the best defenses.

Now I haven’t followed this debate for several years, so perhaps contact pitchers have figured out ways to even out their performance. (The end of the steroids/greenie eras may have something to do with it too.)

But it’s a good debate.

Me, I’d rather have a guy who can throw a 70-pitch complete game. But we’ve only seen one Bulldog, and we may never have another one.

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are the Braves going to bring up anyone who might can score from 2nd base on a single if the team needs a pinch-runner?

Yeah, but who is gonna replace the player run for, in the field? You’re already playing three-fourths of the bench every day, LOL.

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Her’s a recent Rob Neyer post on BABIP where both Hudson and Maddux are mentioned

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/4996/the-meaning-of-trevor-cahill

“Lately, every week in my Tuesday chat, at least one person asks me about some pitcher with a low ERA and a lower BABiP. As gently as I can, I explain that a .217 (or a .223, or a .235, or a whatever) BABiP simply isn’t sustainable. Not for Trevor Cahill or Tim Hudson or Cy Young or Greg Maddux or anyone else …It’s not sustainable, and it doesn’t matter who’s doing the pitching. Trevor Cahill is an incredibly talented young man. I would trade my left arm for his right arm (well, most of my left arm; I need some of it to do the Jim Abbott thing). But if can consistently keep his BABiP below .250 — let alone .220 he’ll be the first since the 1970s.”

This is not to say Hudson shouldn’t win the Cy Young award, it is just putting what he is doing in perspective.

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The purpose of WAR as a stat is not so that players can be ranked. The goal of trying to progressing thie stat is so that we can actually mathematically consider what a player means to the bottom line: wins (and losses).

When Hamilton has a WAR of 6.0 or so, it means that the team will win 6 more games as a result of him being on the roster when compared to an average replacement.

Not about ranking players, but rather about measuring their contribution to the bottom line.

Its not perfect yet, but it is a worthwhile development in my view.

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Ahhh the dreaded WAR debate.

Something I meant to follow up on the other blog was something that was mentioned by a couple of folks defending WAR. The point was that Zobrist’s numbers last year that put him ahead of Pujols last year would even out over the life of a career.

Probably would work out that way, but the fact is that Zobrist’s WAR rating in 2009 rated his value as higher than the NL MVP Pujols. WAR rating for 2009 should stand on it’s own if it can stand on a career. WAR rated Zobrist at a higher value. WAR rating discussion seemed to start on the previous blog based on using WAR to argue that Heyward should be the leader in the ROTY race.

WAR in a vacuum is not very convincing.

If the stats don’t bear out some folks argument, then they start tweaking the numbers themselves.

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Loved this quote from the NY Post:

The Braves continue to be the cream of the crop in the NL East, and the Mets are the fertilizer.

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Why the emphasis on the amount of strikeouts a pitcher gets, when today’s hitters care less about strikeouts than hitters from any other era?

Hitters want to put the sweet spot of the bat on the ball. in other words, hitters bat with the objective to make solid contact, not to avoid a strikeout. If a pitcher forces a hitter to make weak contact, he did his job. Case in point, hitters don’t consider a softly hit ground ball to second a good job.

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