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4,016 comments Add your comment
Brian from SC
August 12th, 2010
9:28 am
Wayne, WPA is a way to measure how much a player really impacted a game offensively. Every single situation that can happen in a game has happened before many times, and we can calculate the probability that the team will win a game, for example, with runners on 1st and 2nd with two outs, down by one run in the 4th inning. So every play changes that win probability…that’s win probability added (or subtracted).
One of the more interesting things it can do is provide a measure of “clutch”. Baseball-reference uses WPA and leverage index to come up with a measure of clutch. Leverage index is a measure of the pressure of the situation. For example, bases loaded in the 9th inning would have a very high leverage index, while bases empty in the 7th in an 11-1 game would have a very low leverage index. If you divide WPA by leverage index, you get a context-dependent stat of how you’ve performed at the plate. The difference between the total WPA and the WPA/LI tells you how clutch you have been. If your WPA is better than your WPA/LI, it means you have performed better in high-leverage situations overall.
For the Braves, this is how they rank in “clutch” (WPA-WPA/LI) this year.
Jason Heyward (1.0)
Brooks Conrad (1.0)
Chipper Jones (0.6)
David Ross (0.4)
Brian McCann (0.4)
Troy Glaus (0.3)
Matt Diaz (0.2)
Rick Ankiel (0.2)
Alex Gonzalez (0)
Nate McLouth (-0.1)
Martin Prado (-0.3)
Omar Infante (-0.4)
Yunel Escobar (-0.5)
Eric Hinske (-0.8)
Melky Cabrera (-0.9)
Note that this doesn’t necessarily mean that Prado has done worse than McLouth overall in clutch situations. It means the difference between his overall performance and his performance in high-leverage situations was greater. McLouth was pretty poor in all situations, so he doesn’t have a big difference.
DAP
August 12th, 2010
9:29 am
i saw a post last night about the possibility of the braves not exercising gonzalez’s option. i think they probably will, but looking at SS options, juan uribe will be a free agent, we could make a run a derek jeter (har har), and edgar renteria will probably hit the open market. miguel tejada is also a free agent.
if we wanted to go defense first, omar vizquel and adam everitt could be had.
a few guys might be available through trade, like stephen drew, but for $2.5 mil, i think gonzalez is a good option, and lets worry about other stuff.
Lew
August 12th, 2010
9:29 am
don-You do realize you’ve been asking the same damned question all year and that the Braves are still in first place?
CraZyTRaDeMaN
August 12th, 2010
9:31 am
dot.Don-key, if you can make it through everyday life and find your way back to the blog every morning despite your obvious mental disabilities and negativity then I’m sure the Braves can maintain the lead.
Lew
August 12th, 2010
9:32 am
Got to go along with Wayne on this one. I can pretty well tell by watching the game if any particular play/hit was important or not. Don’t need much more to tell me that other than observation and a bit of knowledge.
Voice of Harold
August 12th, 2010
9:33 am
. Don
August 12th, 2010
9:25 am
The big question is — Can the Braves maintain the lead in the Division in spite of the losses caused by Bobby Cox’s blunders?
as if on cue….
Nova Scotia Steve
August 12th, 2010
9:35 am
DAP – Juan Uribe? Omar Vizquel? Miguel Tejada? Adam Everitt?
Ooohhhh boy…..
Brian from SC
August 12th, 2010
9:35 am
Oh, the Braves will most definitely bring back Gonzalez at 2.5 million. 100% certainty, unless he has some freak injury or something.
Tommy T
August 12th, 2010
9:36 am
.Don, you’re right. The Braves are 18 games over .500 with a 2.5 game lead in the division and only one game off the best record in the NL. It’s so obvious that Cox is doing a terrible job this year. Without your persistance, I don’t think the multitudes will ever realize. Keep it up.
GTSteve
August 12th, 2010
9:41 am
Brian, I always love the stats that you bring to the blog, but I have to ask this question, shouldn’t walk off hits be a 100% probability of wins??
Brian from SC
August 12th, 2010
9:43 am
Got to go along with Wayne on this one. I can pretty well tell by watching the game if any particular play/hit was important or not. Don’t need much more to tell me that other than observation and a bit of knowledge.
I guess I don’t understand your point. You can say that about every stat. I know how well Hudson is pitching, but it’s still interesting to see where he ranks in ERA.
Brian from SC
August 12th, 2010
9:45 am
GTSteve, the win probability after the hit is 100% obviously, but that isn’t the win probability added by the hit. For Conrad’s walk-off grand slam, the Braves had a 20% win probability before he did it. So it added 80% (100% – 20% = 80%).
Supes
August 12th, 2010
9:48 am
Lets go Dodgers tonight against the Phillies
Then we get to miss Kershaw in our series (according to the pitching matchups posted here) so that works well…
Brian, not another stat man in the making…I thought Shaun was the guy!!!
Wayne in Utah
August 12th, 2010
9:49 am
Brian
Not to put words in Lew’s mouth, but what I think we are both saying is sometimes you can overanalyze the game. Some of us old timers still like the basic stats, realizing that they aren’t always the be-all and end-all.
Also, I can tell you that A-Gon might have a 0 rating, and some would say he is doing poorly. Others would say he has hit a couple of very important home runs in games that we eventually won. Just sayin.
Not arguing that there is no merit in what you say, just that some of us are not as into all the new stats as others.
Gotta run folks.
Later
beekay
August 12th, 2010
9:50 am
Freddie!
rookie team for 2011?
Only five players made both my 2010 all-prospect and 2011 all-rookie teams: Zach Britton, Desmond Jennings, Jesus Montero, Mike Moustakas and Michael Pineda. Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown and Rays righthander Jeremy Hellickson finally received promotions that took them out of the running. Remember that the all-rookie team is based purely on 2011 performance, so opportunity matters just as much as talent.
C: Wilson Ramos, Nationals
Wouldn’t have made this list if the Twins hadn’t dealt him for Matt Capps.
1B: Freddie Freeman, Braves
I’d take Logan Morrison (Marlins), but he’ll lose his prospect status this summer.
2B: Cord Phelps, Indians
More ready defensively, clearer shot at playing time than Brett Lawrie (Brewers).
3B: Mike Moustakas, Royals
Kansas City hopes does what Alex Gordon was supposed to.
SS: Zack Cozart, Reds
This would have been Starlin Castro if he weren’t so precocious.
LF: Nick Weglarz, Indians
Has bounced back nicely after hitting .227 in Double-A a year ago.
CF: Desmond Jennings, Rays
Tampa Bay has to make room for him in the lineup next season.
RF: Michael Taylor, Athletics
Having a mediocre year in Triple-A, but he’s better than that.
DH: Jesus Montero, Yankees
Though his catching skills are still shaky, New York can’t ignore his bat much longer.
SP: Kyle Gibson, Twins
Combo of stuff, polish and contending team should allow him to lead rookies in wins.
SP: Zach Britton, Orioles
Will start pushing his way toward the front of Baltimore’s rotation
SP: Michael Pineda, Mariners
Could he be Prince Michael to King Felix?
SP: Alex White, Indians
Cleveland’s 2009 first-rounder will be better than any of their recent trade pickups.
SP: Kyle Drabek, Blue Jays
Best part of the Roy Halladay package is Toronto’s future ace.
RP: Aroldis Chapman, Reds
Don’t be shocked it he supplants Francisco Cordero as Cincinnati’s closer.
Brian from SC
August 12th, 2010
9:50 am
Also, I can tell you that A-Gon might have a 0 rating, and some would say he is doing poorly. Others would say he has hit a couple of very important home runs in games that we eventually won. Just sayin.
That zero doesn’t mean he’s doing poorly. It means he’s doing about the same in high leverage situations as he is doing overall. The difference between the two is zero.
DAP
August 12th, 2010
9:52 am
brian from sc, i actually think those WPA graphs are really cool. the graph really does follow the peaks and valleys of emotion while watching a game.
Lew
August 12th, 2010
9:53 am
Brian-I’m almost 60 years old and grew up watching baseball and reading the back of cards or the Triple Crown Stats (and the pitcher’s -IP, K, BB and ERA) in the (imagine this) evening newspaper every day. Listened to a lot on radio, too.
All these newer stats seem to me to be a reaction to Fantasy Baseball. Yeah, they all tell you something, but how much more than familiarity with the game or observation tells you?
There are some of the newer stats I’ve found helpful, like OBP, WHIP and K to BB rate that no one paid any attention to in the dim and dusty, but do we really need a (supposed) mathematical formula to tell us a hit is (or isn’t i) important? Do we rerally need range factor (still flawed in a major fashion anuyway), to know that Willie Mays and Andruw Jones were two of the best center fielders ever to play the game? Or that Ozzie Smith was, indeed, The Wizard?
I truly believe that the quest for “The Ultimate Stat” is really a fruitless quest – it just doesn;t exist, because baseball is subjective and consists of too many unquantifiable aspects that defy formulas.
Hey, if it makes you or anyone else happy to indulge your statistical self in all these new quantifications, then more power to you. However, convincing some of the “stat Heads” that most of the new age stuff is hardly integral to an enjoyment of the game has proven almost as impossible as y’all convincing we Fossils that they are necessary for anything other than Fantasy Baseball..
GTSteve
August 12th, 2010
9:56 am
That makes sense Brian, but I know it didn’t feel like even a 20 percent chance when Brooksie came to the plate
Papadawg
August 12th, 2010
9:57 am
I can’t believe nobody is talking about bringing Francouer back to the Braves. Poor little guy is unhappy with the Mess uh Mets
Shaun
August 12th, 2010
9:58 am
Brian from SC, one thing I don’t like about WPA is that a guy who gets a leadoff homer or a guy who leads off a couple of innings by getting on base doesn’t seem to get enough credit. Also, as far as adding overall wins, I’d rather have consistently good performance than a guy who may get a few clutch hits and therefore a high WPA. But I do think WPA it has its uses.
I hate using Francoeur as an example all the time for stuff like this because I really don’t enjoy piling it on but he seems to be the glaring example for stuff like this. His clutchness while he was here probably didn’t make up for his mediocre-to-poor overall performance.
GTSteve
August 12th, 2010
10:00 am
K-rod arrested, in case anybody is interested
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/baseball/mlb/08/12/krod.assault.ap/index.html?eref=sihp
Brian from SC
August 12th, 2010
10:00 am
Six runs in the 10th inning was the most the Braves have scored in an extra inning since they got six in the 10th against the Expos on April 17, 2003. How about this comparision…the Braves got two, then their All-Star catcher (in this case Javy Lopez) hit a grand slam to really ice it.
That’s beautiful baseball history right there.
Brian from SC
August 12th, 2010
10:01 am
I agree, Shaun…no stat is perfect, including WPA. I think it’s one of the more “fun” ones, though.
Lew
August 12th, 2010
10:02 am
The thing is that when you have a good pitching staff and a team that is offensively challeneged, that doen’t hit well in RISP situations, EVERY run is important.
DAP
August 12th, 2010
10:02 am
nova scotia Juan Uribe? Omar Vizquel? Miguel Tejada? Adam Everitt?
Ooohhhh boy…..
haha, i know. there are alot of pretty lame SS out there. it was kindof nice to have a flashy, interesting guy like yunel, who was also one of the better hitters at his position in the majors. (at least before this year).
maybe one day we will have a stud SS again, but the braves have bigger fish to fry, and should probably just exercise gonzalez’s option.
Venice Jim
August 12th, 2010
10:04 am
It was nice to do a catch up on the blog overnight that did not require scrolling through multiple pages of unhappiness, and only note minor disgruntlement from the usual source this morning. An off day after a win is much better than the converse of that…now, I’d like to see the fog lift at Whistling Straits…
Brian from SC
August 12th, 2010
10:04 am
Hey, if it makes you or anyone else happy to indulge your statistical self in all these new quantifications, then more power to you. However, convincing some of the “stat Heads” that most of the new age stuff is hardly integral to an enjoyment of the game has proven almost as impossible as y’all convincing we Fossils that they are necessary for anything other than Fantasy Baseball..
If you can find a post I made where I tried to “convince” anybody of anything regarding enjoyment of the game then I’ll concede your point.
I was just posting them I cause I enjoyed them and thought some others might too.
Lew
August 12th, 2010
10:05 am
Playing for the Mets seems to have gotten to KRod. Doesn’t seem to get along with much of anyone.
Lew
August 12th, 2010
10:07 am
Brian-Fine. No one has said you shouldn’t. , or told you that you’re insane for doing so. But when you DO post something, people who disagree will comment on the post. Wayne and I did. Whether you concede my point or not.
Duder
August 12th, 2010
10:07 am
Rarefied company for a rookie, even a veteran for that matter.
RK PLAYER GP IP SO ERA
1 Rivera 44 42.1 36 1.06
2 Venters 53 58.2 62 1.07
Lew
August 12th, 2010
10:10 am
And it’s pretty obvious you haven’t witnessed one of Shaun’s statistical rants (known for going on for days at a time- all day) where we’ve been informed that if we don’t use the “New Math” (so to speak,) that we don’t want to know the truth.
Sorry the word “Convince” seemed out of place to you. I will remember in the future to be completely and unfailingly literal.
DAP
August 12th, 2010
10:12 am
brian from sc, i understand you man. i dont look at those WPA graphs to come to any conclusions, i just think its interesting.
SpazzHH
August 12th, 2010
10:13 am
Anyone care to take a guess at how long the Cueto suspension will be for?
Shaun
August 12th, 2010
10:14 am
Lew, I don’t think the newer stats have all that much to do with fantasy baseball. Most fantasy baseball is about the stats that you grew up looking at, actually. The newer stats are useful in fantasy baseball because they give you an idea of how the fantasy stats could be fooling you about what a player is likely to do in the future and things of that sort. But the newer stats mostly don’t have anything to do with the fantasy baseball world.
Also, I don’t think anyone is looking for an “ultimate stat.” I think people just try to answer questions they have and come up with ways to answer those questions, and often they have to come up with a way to measure something in order to answer the question, which is where a lot of the new stats come from.
No new stat in integral to enjoying baseball. There are advanced stats in hockey, for instance, that I know nothing about but I enjoy hockey a great deal. But when you are trying to answer specific questions, you may need to come up with a way to measure things in a slightly different way than someone did in the past in order to get your question answered. That’s not trying to reinvent the wheel or trying to be smarter than everyone. It’s simply just tying to get your question(s) answered.
For instance, using your example, of course no one needs an advance stat to know that Andruw Jones was a great centerfielder. But what if you are trying to get some sort of decent estimate about how many balls he got to relative to other centerfielders? What if you are trying to get some sort of reasonable estimate of how many outs he was worth over the average centerfielder or how many runs he saved? Sure, it may or may not be impossible to arrive at exactly and perfectly how many runs he saved or outs he made, but isn’t it admirable that someone or several someones have actually made the attempt and can give us something that most likely gives us a fairly reasonable estimate?
Always a fun discussion.
Lew
August 12th, 2010
10:14 am
And some of us don’t. Never told anyone to not post them though. I find it somewhat amusing though, that when someone mentions that they aren’t as relevant as some seem to think that those who dwell on them get all upset that not everyone agrees.
raleighbravefan
August 12th, 2010
10:14 am
I’m same age as Lew, and agree with everything he said about stats. If you like all the new stuff, that’s fine, but I will leave it to the “stat-heads”. I don’t see much use for most of it except fantacy baseball, which most of you young guys seem to be really into, or at least that mentality when it comes to trades and roster moves. Same thing has happened to football (pro) mostly due to gambling.
Brian from SC- I do usually find your stats interesting and/or entertaining.
Don- yea, if Bobby didn’t suck, we’d be in first place, 18 games above .500, with the second best record in the NL…..Oh Wait!…..Never mind. (What a maroon)
Lew
August 12th, 2010
10:15 am
I will leave and let Shaun rant now. Later
Brian from SC
August 12th, 2010
10:15 am
I are confuse. I just posted stats like I always do. Didn’t really give much in the way of opinions or conclusions either way. Just thought they were fun…I didn’t mean to start an argument. Oh well…Go Braves!
Hat Land Dub Raves
August 12th, 2010
10:19 am
Not him again!!!
Lew
August 12th, 2010
10:20 am
Brian-Keep posting them -apparently some enjoy them.
Do I think you did this intentionally to evoke a negative response or to stir up blog strife? Hell no. But without fail, whenever anyone does comment negatively, look at the hue and cry and defensive posturing that invariably results.
Lew
August 12th, 2010
10:23 am
Besides, it’s a slow day and I’m really tired of talking about Glaus not hitting or being able to field or run, Bobby having Donkey Ears or how lousy Gonzalez’ fielding has been.
Hillbilly
August 12th, 2010
10:24 am
Fist fighting the in-laws in the family room…”Start me or Trade me” demands from the .239/.291/.381 guy in right field…Sexual assault accusations against the ace of the staff…This is why we love the Mets!
Travis
August 12th, 2010
10:26 am
Boy the Mets are self destructing. Closers knocking around their in-laws…self described “impact” players with the worst stats in MLB demanding trades so they can rack up more bad stats. Concussions, contusions and discontent. Jerry Manuel is on his way out folks. Sorry to see him go. We could always count on the late season collapse with JM at the helm.
Travis
August 12th, 2010
10:27 am
Where is Anders?
GermanBravesFan
August 12th, 2010
10:27 am
.Don: are you Robert?
timthebrave
August 12th, 2010
10:28 am
People that are posting about Billy Wagner losing it have no idea about baseball. The guy is throwing 99 MPH fastballs with nasty sliders. The hitters are getting dink and dunk hits for the most part. His era is 1.78. His whip is .888 which is better than his career average and better than 95% of pitchers. His strike outs per 9 ip is at 12.6. That is just awesome. The guy is a GREAT pitcher. When you say that Billy Wagner has lost it you sound like idiots. Go Braves! Great win yesterday!
Lew
August 12th, 2010
10:29 am
Hillbilly-The more things change…….Remember when people blamed the dissension on Wagner when he complained about all the dissension in the Mets’ clubhouse a couple years back? Amazing the transition he’s made to a clubhouse becoming known for it’s positive chemistry and the contributions to it that he’s been credited with..
I Hate Troy Glaus (formerly I Hate Liberty Media)
August 12th, 2010
10:29 am
If baseball doesn’t work out, Cueto looks to have a bright future with the Rockettes.
Andy
August 12th, 2010
10:29 am
The big question is — Can the Braves maintain the lead in the Division in spite of the losses caused by Bobby Cox’s blunders?
So the players have nothing to do with the blunders? Everything, and I mean everything, is Bobby’s fault? Get real.
If Freeman was brought up and did poorly, you’d blame that on Bobby too. Like you do everything.
Shaun
August 12th, 2010
10:30 am
Lew and raleighbravefan, if you read my post at 10:14am, you would see that I addressed your concerns about “new” stats in about as reasonable a way as I could.
I would bet that a lot of real life front offices use a lot more of the newer stats than any person who plays fantasy baseball.
Hat Land Dub Raves
August 12th, 2010
10:31 am
Brian,
Count me in the “some others” that enjoy your posts. In fact, I never fully understood WPA until I saw your explanation. Thanks.
Travis
August 12th, 2010
10:32 am
As bad as Frenchy has been, he might be an upgrade over McLouth. The one saving grace with McLouth…he knows he sucks right now and wants to get help…Frenchy hasn’t come to grips with that yet. He might never.
Lew
August 12th, 2010
10:32 am
Yeah, but that’s not all they use and I’m betting that the Win Shares stat ain’t one of them they DO use..
DAP
August 12th, 2010
10:35 am
lyle overbay has cleared waivers. i guess if the braves were gonna do something like that, they could just bring up freeman and save their tradeable pieces.
Travis
August 12th, 2010
10:36 am
Wags is pitching where they are swinging right now. The other night he slowed down his slider and it was like a change…a third pitch for him makes him tough. The little bloopers are catchng just enough of the upper strike zone to make contact…he’ll adjust. Good players always do.
Brian from SC
August 12th, 2010
10:37 am
May 21st was a long time ago…73 games in almost three months. Since then, the Braves have a 3.17 ERA, best in the major leagues. The only team even close, surprisingly is Oakland, with a 3.29 ERA over that span. Then the Giants at 3.48 and the White Sox at 3.50.
The Braves are 45.28 over that stretch.
Shaun
August 12th, 2010
10:37 am
Lew, you mean WPA? I’m sure some front offices are aware of it but you are probably right that many don’t pay too much attention to it. Although I bet some do take into account at least a little bit.
I’m almost positive many front offices use something like win shares, wins above replacement, wins above replacement level or some similar stat(s); and I know for a fact those such stats are used and more useful in real baseball than in fantasy baseball.
Nova Scotia Steve
August 12th, 2010
10:38 am
Glaus has been hitting some balls right on the screws lately. I think this is a great sign.
I still have faith in the guy and will continue to do so until further notice.
Lew
August 12th, 2010
10:38 am
I don’t dislike Brain’s posts or scroll past them when they appear. I just don’t care for what I view as some of the more esoteric of the new stats and commented on one this morning.
Not trying to get Brian to leave, feel badly, or to denigrate anything he contributes to the blog (which is usually considerable). Just commenting on what I felt was a basically useless stat and not on the intelligence or motives of the poster – who happens to be – IMO -one of the more rational people posting here.
But like I said earlier – why all the defensive posturing when one of us disagrees with some of the newer stats? Seems to be a considerable amount of overreaction.
I Hate Troy Glaus (formerly I Hate Liberty Media)
August 12th, 2010
10:38 am
Will Frency implement “Operation Shutdown” a la Derek Bell if he doesn’t get traded?
timthebrave
August 12th, 2010
10:39 am
Brian, I think it comes down to how your mind works. I am one of the few people that enjoy math and find it interesting to see how you can try to see if someone is clutch. The problem with WPA, it seems to me, that it is determined against how you normally perform. For example if someone is batting .150 and hits .220 with bases loaded would he seem more clutch than a .300 hitter that bats .275 with bases loaded? Or am I misunderstanding WPA
Travis
August 12th, 2010
10:39 am
Bet Wags wouldn’t raise a stink if they flipped him and Venters right now. He’s a team player. The kids in the bullpen can learn a lot from him.
Travis
August 12th, 2010
10:41 am
Hate Troy Glaus (formerly I Hate Liberty Media)If Frenchy shut it down would we be able to tell?
BravesFanForever
August 12th, 2010
10:41 am
DOB: Enjoyed the much shorter blog today. I like things concise. Who has time to read all that extra stuff? Abraham Lincoln said it best: Say what you need to say but keep it short (i.e. emancipation proclamation).
In my opinion, Martin Prado is the MVP of the Braves this season. Fortunately the Braves have Omar Infante who has ably stepped right in there and the team hardly noticed the difference while Martin was out. Not to say that the guy isn’t any less capable. I’d put Tim Hudson a close second and only because pitchers don’t get into as many games (so they better have an almost overwhelming–mind blowing–season) and frankly, this team needs more offense than it does pitching so I give the nod to Prado. It’s great when we can get the two guys into the line up at the same time.
I also give my kudos to Brooks Conrad. The man is amazing. I don’t know if this is a fluke or he has always been like this in his minor league days. There are a few guys who for whatever reason perform better when the pressure is on. While Conrad is not in the same league as Chipper, Reggie, or Brett, what he has done for the short time he has been with the Braves is nothing short of amazing. Note to Bobby… “Insert Conrad when the game is on the line–after the 8th inning please”.
Kudos to the entire bench: Best in the majors by a wide margin!
Thank you Atlanta Braves for having a great season… Keep it up! Go Braves!!!
Brian from SC
August 12th, 2010
10:42 am
Braves starting pitchers have a 1.79 ERA so far in August. They have a 3.44 ERA since April ended.
timthebrave
August 12th, 2010
10:42 am
Not that I need stats to let me know that MAC WAS CLUTCH last night..ha ha
I Hate Troy Glaus (formerly I Hate Liberty Media)
August 12th, 2010
10:42 am
Travis,
Excellent (and funny) point!
Lew
August 12th, 2010
10:42 am
Travis-They don’t even need to flip Venters and Wags. Last night Bobby could have closed with Saito, who had just had two days off and was much fresher than any other closer option.
But WTF, Bobby knows things I don’t. Just wondered about it after Saito was up throwing in the pen before they got Wagner up..
Shaun
August 12th, 2010
10:43 am
Lew, essentially, if we care to and are going to pay attention to any stats, I think we have to look at what’s behind a stat to determine if it’s worth paying attention to. It’s better to not look at any stats at all than it is to look a certain stats.
For example, on-base percentage obviously tells us a great deal. If we look at what’s behind it, it’s obvious that it’s useful. When we look behind RBI for individual hitters, it’s obvious that it’s not all that useful and it would be better for a front office or someone to just ignore all stats rather than look at stats like RBI.
Brian from SC
August 12th, 2010
10:44 am
For example if someone is batting .150 and hits .220 with bases loaded would he seem more clutch than a .300 hitter that bats .275 with bases loaded? Or am I misunderstanding WPA
That’s now how WPA works. WPA just measures how games were impacted in win probability. What you’re referring to is the stat I talked about above that measures “clutch”. In your example, in simplified terms, yes, it would call the poorer hitter more “clutch”. That’s why you can’t look at one stat exclusively to draw conclusions.
Travis
August 12th, 2010
10:45 am
Lew…sometimes I forget that Wagner and Saito are closer to our age than Hansons. Plus it’s been pretty hot in Atlanta the last month or so. Gotta takes it’s toll on all the guys.
CB
August 12th, 2010
10:48 am
What is this- LOF day?
Lew
August 12th, 2010
10:51 am
Shaun- RBI’s have always been something you and I view in a completely different manner. I view RBI as opportunities taken advantage of and you don’t see them that way, preferring to focus on the fact that they are impacte by other players’ performances..
Since runs are the determining factor in wins, any that a player knocks in runs(no matter who or how many might or might not be on base for him to knock in), are important. Yes, they are contingent on other factors (most everything in baseball is, in one way or another) and may not be as definitive as some other areas that might be explored, but they do tell you a good bit about the effectiveness of a player in certain situations. You can always break it down further and view things in their molecular form, but RBI’s are more important than you like to believe.
McFann ;Ô; ;Ô;
August 12th, 2010
10:52 am
I wish there was a game tonight!
Lew
August 12th, 2010
10:56 am
Travis-Well, they signed Saito to be a co-closer (or so we were told), yet he has only one save. Given Wags recent struggles and how often he’s been used lately, just thought Saito would be a good choice -especially since Bobby already had him warming up. Maybe during warm ups, he tweaked something. Like I said – they know things we surely don’t.
Shaun
August 12th, 2010
10:56 am
But like I said earlier – why all the defensive posturing when one of us disagrees with some of the newer stats? Seems to be a considerable amount of overreaction.
Lew, I think the problem is “disagreeing” with a stat. A stat is a measure of something. Now you can disagree with how useful a stat which is why it is important one knows what’s behind it and knows why it came to be in the first place. For instance, RBI. RBI aren’t very useful. But what does it mean to disagree with RBI? I can’t disagree with RBI. It is measuring something. I simply disagree with some on how useful it is in telling us something about an individual hitter because I know what’s behind RBI.
Long Time Braves Fan
August 12th, 2010
10:57 am
I don’t know why .don even bothers to post, pay not attention to him. I also notice our good blogs get testie on teams days off. BTW good 9:63 post if you are still here Lew
SpazzHH
August 12th, 2010
10:58 am
McFann – Don’t owls actually eat rally turtles when they grow up? Why the sudden interest in the owls? I missed the original post where you first started talking about them.
DAP
August 12th, 2010
10:58 am
shaun When we look behind RBI for individual hitters, it’s obvious that it’s not all that useful and it would be better for a front office or someone to just ignore all stats rather than look at stats like RBI.
no, RBI can tell us things, if you accept what they are. being close minded like you are about RBI comes from basically the same attitude the anti-OPS folks have. why cant we just accept stat for what they are and not try to pick which ones are best? stats, to me, are like my children (if i had any). i love them all the same amount, just in different ways.
Brian from SC
August 12th, 2010
10:59 am
DAP, stats are like your children? LOL…ok…
Long Time Braves Fan
August 12th, 2010
10:59 am
edit my above: good blogger. 9:53 post
Travis
August 12th, 2010
11:00 am
McFann….time for new handle for Mac….McSlam
Lunatic Fringe
August 12th, 2010
11:03 am
Brian,
I do like all your stat postings, though like some others still do not find them so valuable(maybe an age or generation thing). I have a MS in statistics, but have never “approved” of the way baseball uses them. They are not predictors, and there are so many uncontrollable conditions that traditional stats don’t always help short term. Though a more specific stat like Diaz having a .400+ avg against Santana may be more telling than just Diaz having a .300+ avg against lefties.
The “new” stats do seem to controlling for more factors though so they may become more valuable. The WPA for example does seem to confirm, somewhat, what the “eye” has been seeing all along. It would be nice if the WPA could be controlled for OPS though, and it might give a better “clutch” stat.
I have always wondered why calulated stats are used so much, and why regression equations have not been created. To me, a regression equation would be a much better predictor of how a game might go tonight, than say the current pitchers era would.
Anyway, thanks for your work in your postings, and I do appreciate them
Long Time Braves Fan
August 12th, 2010
11:04 am
Little league game on ESPN 2 now
Shaun
August 12th, 2010
11:05 am
Yes, they are contingent on other factors (most everything in baseball is, in one way or another) and may not be as definitive as some other areas that might be explored, but they do tell you a good bit about the effectiveness of a player in certain situations
Lew, that’s the thing. You want stats that are as close as possible to ONLY contingent on a player’s performance and/or a player’s skills. Some stats are less contingent on other factors than others. This goes into digging into what’s behind a stat to determine if it’s worth paying attention to and how much we should pay attention to it. You admit that RBI are contingent on other factors. Don’t you agree that you want to avoid stats that are extremely contingent on other factors besides what a player has actually done? Isn’t that the reason we avoid paying a great deal of attention to pitchers’ wins? It’s all about finding stats that basically scout a player for us. RBI and wins can’t tell us a player’s skills at avoiding outs, hitting the ball hard, how good a pitcher is at getting hitters to swing and miss or induce grounders, etc.
Travis
August 12th, 2010
11:05 am
Brian McSlam…I like it.
phils80-08wschamps
August 12th, 2010
11:05 am
LETS SEE PHILS GETTING VICTORINO,UTLEY, AND HOWARD BACK SOON, AND BRAVES LOSE CHIPPER JONES FOR YEAR HOPEFULLY, GEE I WONDER WHO IS GOING 2 WIN THIS DIVISION, GO PHILLIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Furman Bitcher
August 12th, 2010
11:05 am
Chipper torn ACL just cam over the wire!! Done!
Furman Bitcher
August 12th, 2010
11:06 am
Time to trade for a bat. This team cannot beat the Phillies with these bats.
McFann ;Ô; ;Ô;
August 12th, 2010
11:06 am
SpazzHH Don’t owls actually eat rally turtles when they grow up?
Hmm…I’m not sure. I know some birds cann eat turtles, but I’m not sure if Owls do…
I’ve always loved Owls. I even missed BMac’s second career Grand Slam trying to see the Owl that we had in our backyard at the time (saw it’s wings as it flew away…Brother had come practically face-to-face with it).
.579 posted the link to The Owl Cam the other day. I had known about it, but forgot, and he reminded me! It fun to watch, even when she’s just sleeping. She has three babies right now, the fourth is s’posed to hatch on Saturday.
Travis time for new handle for Mac….McSlam
Haha, seriously! Ya know, he now has as many Grand Slams as Javy Lopez had for his whole career!
Long Time Braves Fan
August 12th, 2010
11:08 am
Please say no on Chipper. WOW THATS BAD NEWS
Shaun
August 12th, 2010
11:10 am
DAP, we have to pick the best ones. Some are inferior to others. Some view stats as numbers but some view them as measuring and scouting tools. I don’t think anyone would disagree that a pitcher’s innings, strikeouts, walks, homers allowed and groundball rate is more telling than his wins. That means that some stats are superior to others.
Furman Bitcher
August 12th, 2010
11:10 am
Just came over the radio. Done for the season.
Furman Bitcher
August 12th, 2010
11:10 am
Maybe done for career.
phils80-08wschamps
August 12th, 2010
11:11 am
GOOD BYE CHIPPER NAH NAH NAH NAH HEY HEY HEY GOODBYE NAH NAH NAH NAH NAH NAH GOODBYE AND GOOD RITHENS
Furman Bitcher
August 12th, 2010
11:12 am
I wouldnt be cheering other peoples injuries when you have a team full of em. You are still in 2nd place.
Long Time Braves Fan
August 12th, 2010
11:13 am
Don’t need comment from plils80
Travis
August 12th, 2010
11:13 am
phils80-08wschamps….what are you a drop out.RITHENS?
Lew
August 12th, 2010
11:14 am
Shaun-Now you’re just parsing words and being contrary.