One man’s prediction: Heyward makes Opening Day roster

Sweet.

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If anyone cares, Frank Wren rescheduled 680 interview for tomorrow…

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First!

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Go Braves!

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And DOB, I am in agreement with recognizing ARod’s 5 tool abilities and potential HOFness at 20, but what about one Junior Griffey?

I drafted him in 1989 and he hit a couple bombs in the first week of his career…if not for falling in the shower, he would have done better in the power dept….but he was all that and a bag of Utz

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DOB, when you posted that youtube of Jay doing “Methamphetamine” a while back, I went crazy over it and called a buddy asking if he knew him or Son Volt. He said yeah, and that there was this one song about the wind taking your troubles away that had “knocked his **** in the dirt driving down the road listening to a progressive radio station” one night. Cool to see it pop here.

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He’ll be a huge bust. If he does make the roster, he will be down to Gwinnett by July.

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floridas state motto: ask us about our grandkids.

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Are there any other players in camp for the Braves?

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Yeah, Florida’s population is pretty gray. I grew up right in the middle of the state and it was that way 30 years ago. Even worse now.

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You don’t find too many players who are 5 tooled. Unfortunately unless the kid hits .285/20/80 people are going to consider it a disappointing season. The major league season is a long one. How will he deal with his first major league slump? His first injury? How will he adjust when major league pitchers see the film on him and his tendencies? There are alot of factors that people aren’t taking into account.

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Now, you can make the argument that he should be there on opening day, however, I don’t understand the point that signing a long term deal makes whether or not he’s an arbitration player in 2016 or a FA in 2016 irrelevant. It doesn’t make it irrelevant, in the least. It is more expensive to buy out a player’s arbitration years than it is his free agency years. You need look no further than McCann’s contract.

07:$0.5M, 08:$0.8M, 09:$3.5M, 10:$5.5M, 11:$6.5M, 12:$8.5M, 13:$12M club option ($0.5M buyout)

You can clearly see that even though this was a long term contract signed, the years we would have had him under club control completely (before the long term deal was signed) he’s making less than a mill. The years he would have been an arbitration player he gets a big initial jump and slow steady raises. Then his first year of potential free agency he gets a big jump to 13 mill.

Whether or not Heyward is an arb player or a FA player in 2016 makes a HUGE difference, regardless of whether we sign him to a long term contract or not. If he lives up to even half the hype, it will likely be a $5 mill difference. Even if we sign him to a long term contract.

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Great blog. And what a great song. Perfect for the kind of sh*t day I am having. But looking forward to the game at 7, that’s for sure.

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new nickname: Jesus Christ

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Chuck, nobody is talking about putting Heyward in the minors all season. Just for the first 9 games, 6 of which are on the road. To get him over that 170 service days hump.

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I still worry. Andruws numbers were phenomenal in the minors, not to say he was a failure in the big leagues. Although I do recall some issues with Andruw, similar to Escobar, which I do not foresee with Heyward.

Can we just start the real games already???

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Let’s not forget the guy has not been the healthiest. Let’s keep hotdogs under $10 a few more yrs.

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Are there any other players in camp for the Braves? DHD

Yes, ones who can give glowing interviews about Heyward.

By the way what is DHD Is it like RHR (Run Heap Run)- D—- Heyward D—- ?

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“sounds like the second coming of Jeff Francoeur and we all know how that one turned out…” – Jim

I get jokes… funny stuff man…. wait, you are joking, right?

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The way that dude in Iran talks, there won’t even be a planet in 2016.

I say we win now.

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Nelson S – I chose tickets for Houston on Sunday. Reason being that Houston is much closer to Braves camp. The main regulars that play would likely be given the Houston game. The radio broadcast is also from the Houston game. Hope that helps.

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Jeff Francoeure, J-Hay is not. Hayward is more of a baseball player!

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Chuck, it’s the same exact situation the Rays had with Longoria. Everybody knew Longoria should be in the lineup from day 1. Everybody knew they were going to work out a long term contract. Sending Heyward to the minors for the first 9 games will only affect Heyward’s decision if he’s a spiteful idiot, and I have a little higher opinion of him than that.

It’s not about being cheap. It’s about the fact that the Braves do not have infinity billion dollars. In 2016 I’m assuming that they will be operating on a budget. $5mill extra dollars might buy a useful player in 2016. Think of how this free agent period might have been different if we had 5 mill extra. Vazquez would likely still be a brave. Or we would have a basher at 1B without health issues. Or any other number of things.

It’s not like the team would just pocket that extra $5 mill. They’d spend it on other players that could help Jason, Tommy, Freddie, JJJ, Julio, B-Mac, etc win a championship that year.

The other thing you HAVE to know is that baseball players never get paid “what they’re worth.” They get paid less than they’re worth up front and way more than they’re worth on the back end. It’s a business, the rules are written the way they are.

You think Chipper is worth more than Evan Longoria? 15 times more? That’s how much more he’s making this year.

Finally, I’m not even saying don’t start him from day one. I’m saying you better realize that you are paying $5 mill or so in 2016 for him to start from day 1. If that’s a price you’re willing to pay, fine. Just don’t pretend like its irrelevant because we are going to sign him to a long term deal.

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Heyward definitely doesn’t compare to Francoeur…very, very different players on different paths. Heyward is already a more polished hitter than Andruw ever was or will be (albeit he probably isn’t at Andruw’s power peak yet), but Andruw was a couple of good years away from a HOF career because of his defense. So that’s not bad company, but still not a good comparison.

Heyward’s best Braves comparable is probably Chipper Jones. Obviously, that kind of career path would be wonderful for him.

And I agree that, although I’m not sure it’s the most sound decision, the Braves probably have no other choice than to have him on the Opening Day roster. But that’s perfectly fine with me. Let’s enjoy it, folks. This roster is really shaping up nicely. The Braves are now probably the consensus 2nd best team in the East, and with a stroke of good health and good luck, should be the wild card favorites.

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Just so everyone knows…that fantastic looking J-HEY KID T-Shirt featured above is available from my friends at http://www.sportscrack.com

And as always, the Official Skip Caray T-Shirt is also available online at http://www.skipshirt.com

Load up for the season!

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DAP -

Thanks for the info from the last blog… Sounds to me like it would be a no-brainer decision if it is only a hand full of games.

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VJ -

I’ll still root for the Tribe in the NIT…and here’s an early start on them breaking the drought next year!

As for supporting my team…no biggie. Hard for Duke fan to do that. I can support your Tribe, but not your Blue Devils…so, I understand your dilemma.

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I’m a Jason Heyward believer, and wish nothing but the best for him.

But it will be interesting to see how he pans out this year. The season is a long campaign. Each night is facing a starter 2-3 times in the first five innings (making adjustments, all the while he’s making adjustments on you), followed by a setup man or two, each of whom has different stuff and locations, potentially followed by a closer who wouldn’t be in the position of being a closer if he didn’t get guys out. Then going out the next day, and doing it again regardless of what happened the night before. Repeat for six months. I have confidence he will do well.

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Walk up song for J-Hey?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSZKefwIWQs&feature=related

Or would that be too…

In any case, it HAS to be used for a Heyward tribute vid.

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Bowman just put up the starting lineup…aside from pitcher, looks like a pretty good shot at the opening day lineup:

McLouth – CF
Prado – 2b
Chipper – 3b
Glaus – 1b
McCann – C
Escobar – SS
Heyward – RF
Cabrera – LF
Kawakami – P

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This is probably the line up Bobby will be using most of the year. Swap Diaz for Cabrera against leftys.

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Sorry DOB, didn’t refresh to see that you had already posted lineup….thanks!

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DOB -

Wouldn’t surprise me if we saw that lineup a lot this season.

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New nickname- “Big Baby Jesus.”

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MAKES the decision

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FJR, never ignored the price…and am TOTALLY willing to pay it…

Like I said in a prior post, the guy is gonna put the extra asses in the seats to cover his own draw…

This is a UNIQUE circumstance. I am fine with the system slotting the way it normally does. For a guy like this who is in the 99th percentile, i am willing to adapt to a different way of thinking.

And yes, if i hit .400 didn’t strike out, ran the bases like a gazelle, and demonstrated all 5 tools the way this guy is….yeah I’d be spiteful if i had to make my debut 15 days in instead of on opening day just because The Grim Reaper, Terry McGuirk has his designs on selling the team with another year of control of me…when if handled right, I’d be happy to be there for perpetuity….

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If Jason Heyward is the best option in RF for the Braves come opening day by a significant margin, I want to see him on the team.

If the Braves sit him in AAA, just to delay his free agency, it would be a crime shame.

It would say, “J-Hey, we’re not giving the best man the job. We’re giving the second best man the job for 9 days, so that we can ‘own’ you for one more year at a cut rate salary.”

This is a flaw in the CBA that is almost as unAmerican as the “reserve clause.”

I hope the Braves organization gives the best man the job and lets the future take care of itself. Heyward has done the work. Hopefully, he gets the reward.

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Furthermore, FJR, please don’t compare Longoria’s situation.

He is with a franchise that this rule is built for….Tampa has no hope of retaining but 1 or 2 guys out of every 10 that show promise…even that is a stretch…

Read Will Leitch’s piece on Deadspin about Tampa and how they deal with those expectations and still have achieved some success…

Heyward is just gonna jump right into Chip’s money in a couple years, with a couple extra mil coming from someplace else.

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I have a feeling we might be seeing this lineup very often when RH pitchers are throwing…..

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northbeach Scott – like night and day

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that’ll be your starting lineup for the season (save when diaz takes over against lefties)

like how bobby is putting together a linup that he’ll prolly use in the regseason against the phills and their best pitcher

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Everyone on here is not opening their minds to the possibilities this guy brings…

The payroll sux right now because you natives can’t get your asses out of traffic and into the ballpark enough to suit me or the numbers crunchers in the front office…

An extra 500K asses in the seats because of this guy is conservative estimate…

“They will come, Ray, oh people will come…”

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Chuck, my point is, I think you do Jason a great disservice when Evan handled the situation with such class and you’re projecting Jason will throw a temper tantrum about a business decision. It’s 9 games, maybe 12 if the Braves don’t want to risk pushing the rules to their limits.

And Jason isn’t going to make a $2mill difference in attendance, let alone $5mill, in the 3 home games he would miss. Especially when one is opening day.

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Bobby Cox introducing the Braves to Halladay early. Nice to see that lineup. Is it on CSS locally or just MLB network?

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ESPN’s got the Heyward Homer Vid. Found it with an easy search on their site. Here’s the link for those of you who need more immediate gratification:

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=4977685

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Go Haywood Go!

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This cat’s going to be in Gwinnett come opening day. Tell him to talk to Tommy Hanson. It’s all about the Benjamin’s baby!

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While McLouth is not ideal for the lead-off position…I guess we could have a worse lineup than that one. Like maybe last year’s?

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I think some on the last blog might have gotten the wrong idea when I mentioned Chipper’s first full season performance in the context of Heyward. I wasn’t denigrating Chipper’s season, far from it. I was pointing out that, no matter your skill set, no matter how advanced, the step up to the bigs is HARD, man. HARD. Heyward may indeed be another Pujolsian exception that proves the merely-human rule, but that’s just a little much to plan on, ain’t it? And we seem ready to see him win ROY, MVP, and get a lifetime mega-deal before pitchers go three innings.

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So, I’m starting to get excited about 2010 Braves baseball. There’s still a ways to go, but here’s my assessment on the question marks…
1. Can Glaus adjust to 1B defensively and return to form as a hitter? So far, yes.
2. Will Hudson come back to #1 form from TJ surgery? So far, yes.
3. Will Lowe bounce back? So far, yes.
4. Will Chipper bounce back? So far, not looking good.
5. Is McCann’s vision problem solved? So far, yes.
6. Is McLouth’s vision problem solved? So far, not looking good.
7. What’s the bullpen going to look like? So far, who the hell knows?
8. Is Jurrjens shoulder going to recover? So far, looks good.
9. Is Hanson going to avoid a sophomore slump? So far, yes.
10. Will RF be a contributor offensively, after many, many years of yuck? So far, yes.

Based on the early prognosis, I say the Braves win 100 and the WS.

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Someone using my name posted that Heyward = Francouer a bit earlier. I do not share that sentiment at all. Much different approach at the plate and much different level of maturity.

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I don’t like Heyward in the 7 spot because his high walk total can be negated. If I am the opposing pitcher, I would not give him anything good to hit and take my chances with the 8-hole hitter and the pitcher. He is not protected in that spot, and his contributions are more likely to be wasted.

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ncscoots, that’s right. A .270/15/60 year would be a really good rookie season. .280/20/80 would be a GREAT rookie season. .300/30/100 would be downright historic…I wouldn’t look for that.

He is probably the odd-on favorite to win Rookie of the Year right now. But he will not be the best player on the team, much less one of the best in the league. Of course, he does look like the best player in camp right now.

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abwright-
Join the club Dude. I’ve been saying it for weeks. Remember: GOBS AND GOBS AND GOBS OF PITCHING.

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Heyward is a special talent. He has an extraordinary attitude and work ethic for his age. He’s done anything and everything the Braves have asked him to do. He’s done each and every one exceedingly well.

He’s going to mean much more to the Braves than a stack of cash 6-years down the road. He’s going to be our first homegrown Atlanta Braves mega-star. He has the temperament, looks, and personality, to be the face of the Braves franchise for years to come. He has the potential to pack the house every night. That’s the type player I think he is.

What a bad-will gesture it would be if the Braves forced him to start the year at Gwinnett. This young man deserves to be on the opening-day roster. Wouldn’t feel that way about anyone else (thought it was right move with Hanson) but this kid could be a once-in-50-years type player. I honestly believe that.

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I said of Heyward weeks ago: .265, 14-18 HR, 65-70 RBI. That’s all the team needs.

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Who cares about 2016? This team will be owned by Arther Blank by then. Liberty Media will sell and the Braves will be back under a single owner with big pockets. Turner Broadcasting should have sold this team to Blank years ago.

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DAVE I AGREE WITH YOUR LINEUP EXCEPT ONE PLAYER, WHY IS CHIPPER JONES IN YOUR OPENING DAY LINEUP AND WHY WOULD YOU HAVE HEYWARD BATTING 7TH? HE SHOULD BE BATTING THIRD, CHIPPER SHOULD EITHER BE TRADED OR ON THE BENCH.YOU CAN’T DEPEND ON CHIPPER. HE WILL BE HURT BY THE THIRD GAME

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FJR: “he’s going to throw a silly temper tantrum if he misses the first 9 games?”

No, I lean toward being with Chuck on this one.

It’s not that he would be missing 9 games. It’s that he would know he is being cheated out of the opportunity to make better money sooner. That’s not spite – - it’s a business circumstance for him personally.

I’m pretty sure I’m not spiteful, but if my employer pulled a cheap technicality on me that would lighten my future wallet, it would affect my attitude big time.

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thinbreakness – i’m thinking Heyward may actually hit more homers than that. well hopefully at least.

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You know, all our leadoff candidates have career OBPs higher than Jimmy Rollins, and only Melky has a lower SLG. The Phillies do OK, and so will the Braves.

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Chuck, so you’re saying that while numerous other top prospects fully understand this reality of the baseball rules, Heyward is going to take exception, and stick it to the braves over 9 games? Longoria didn’t take exception to it, he understood that’s just how the game is set up, especially if you don’t have unlimited funds, but Jason won’t, he’s going to cause this to keep us from signing him long term? In my view, he’s a class act and understand the business of baseball, that this is the way that ALL teams do it and be fine whichever way it goes.

$5Mill buys a pretty decent amount. Would you like to still have Javy Vazquez? With $5mill more this year, we would.

All that being said, I still think he starts the season in the majors, but mostly because it’s bobby’s last season and bobby is going to get what he wants this year. Not because its a smart baseball decision, because its not.

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mtr turnip green jeans He’s going to be our first homegrown Atlanta Braves mega-star.

is that so? im not sure of your definition of mega star, but i guess dale murphy, chipper jones, david justice, tom glavine arent in there anywhere?

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FJR, you’re arguing with another internet “expert” who can’t lay off the caps lock key because he thinks it makes his points sound more convincing. Who in their right mind imagines that Heyward, after amassing tens of millions of dollars from now ’til 2016, is going to leave in a snit solely because he didn’t play the first nine games of 2010?

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DOB ——-
got my copy of “The Big To-Do” today …. it’s kinda good (smothered in sarcasm)

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thinbreakness – Oh I got what your saying now.

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He isn’t sticking it to the Braves, FJR over missing 9 games, he’s sticking it to them because they are standing in the way of him earning more several years from now, when he will already have paid for that small sum you are talking about by virtue of being an extraordinary talent.

Any good agent will tell him this. And I don’t know if you played baseball, but running out on that field as a starting player on any team from the time you are 10 years old is a special feeling. Even more so, I imagine, as a 20 year old in the Majors. Don’t deny him that for a few sheckels.

By 6 years from now, avg attendance will exceed the amount needed to cover the “savings” you achieve with this 9 day plan. It’s simple math.

I don’t purport to know the inner workings of people’s minds, just framing logical thought processes here.

You have to treat special talent differently. Again, Longoria is a good player, but he has nowhere near the ceiling Heyward does, and he plays for a team that operates in the margins financially.

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chuck: “Again, Longoria is a good player, but he has nowhere near the ceiling Heyward does, and he plays for a team that operates in the margins financially.”

I’m not sure I agree with this. Longoria has a best-player-in-the-league, possible HOF career ceiling.

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Sorry, guys ! Jason will be at AAA Gwinnett come Opening Day. Frank is talking with Arizona about bringing back Kelly Johnson. I’ll have Kelly in left; Natie in center; and Melky in right. Diaz will ride the pine.

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Rocco Baldelli is still a FA

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thinbreakness – “I said of Heyward weeks ago: .265, 14-18 HR, 65-70 RBI. That’s all the team needs.”

I am with you on this… would love to see him stretch it to 20 and 80… but just can’t see him hitting much higher than .260… history just says not many LH power hitters can do it.

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My personal opinion is bring J-Hey up for opening day. If he turns out to be as good as advertised the Braves will pursue a long term deal. A plus on our side for locking him up is Atlanta is his hometown team. Every kid dreams of playing for the team they grow up watching. And for Heyward this won’t be just a chance to play for your hometown team but a chance to be the coverboy. I know Frenchy was a hometown boy but always had dollar signs in his eyes. Heyward is a different personality, He has his head on straight and was raised to be a very humble guy. I’m not saying he won’t prove me wrong and chase the money but the impression I have of him so far says that theres a good chance he could be in ATL for a long time.

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The sad thing is, the blogger purporting to be Bobby Cox may not be too far off from the real situation.

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BravesDA

Baldelli is still a FA. Hes working with the Rays right now as a special instructor for ST. He has some kind of shoulder issue and is debating retirement.

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I’m not trying to be a downer here in the excitement, I’m excited too, but listening to The Fan around noon today I couldn’t help but notice what a smart alleck one of those guys is. I don’t know his name because I’ve only listened a handful of times, but it’s the guy who talks the most out of the two. He was rude to a few callers and just had an arrogance about him I didn’t like. He said he’s 32 years old if that helps.

I agreed with most of what he said, just didn’t like the way he said some of those things and the way he treated some of those callers.

I have NEVER been this excited about a ST game, but that’s what a guy like Heyward will do, I guess.

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yeah baldelli has some weird bone or muscle disease

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Keith law with his Heyward prediction (see 1:09)

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/31106

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If you are near a TV, tune to ESPN to watch Baseball Tonight. In a minute they will show the Heyward bomb yesterday and Cox’s reaction to it.

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Evan gets to play in a slow-pitch softball league with 5 hour games and beer breaks (TIC)…

I think it’s harder to separate yourself from your peers in the NL and in the OF as opposed to 3rd…i mean in the AL, off the top of my head, you have ARod and Young…how many OFers are there to compare to?

Longoria is fantastic, but he’s not on another plane like someone with Heyward’s physical gifts….

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DOB,

Glad to hear someone at the AJC finally talking sense about why it doesn’t matter about starting the clock on Heyward’s arbitration/free agency on opening day…because they will want to sign him to a multi year deal because hello, the kid has everything you want in a big league player.

Also, I think it’s time to put to bed the “comparison fever” on Jason Heyward. All of the comparisons come with a caveat, like “he reminds me of Fred McGriff, except he is more athletic” or “he hits as hard as Cliff Floyd, but has more plate discipline” and on and on. I’m starting to believe that there is no comparison because he has what most other players don’t…no holes in his game!!! So I think he will make a name for himself, that will be beyond comparisons. I mean, how many players come to the table with excellent plate discipline, hit for average, hit for power, hit in situations, runs well, steals bases, takes extra bases on pitches in the dirt, can catch well and throw well? Chipper was right, a player who knows the finer points of the game belongs in the majors, when they are a backup middle infielder, but especially when they have the real deal tools that Heyward does. You never heard Chipper or TP talk about Jeff Francoeur glowingly like they do about Heyward, and those two guys know hitting and the finer points of the game very well.

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And Longoria needs to bring the avg up and the Ks WAY DOWN (like the Caps don’t you) before he is considered one of the top 5 hitters in the game.

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Gray-beard (3:57) Love the suggestion of Cepeda… but of course I’ll note he was a RH hitter. Elite RH hitters usually come into the league at around .280-.290… elite LH hitters usually come in at around .260 or so.

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Bad as I hate to say it, Michael Vick was the closest thing we’ve had to a true mega-star. Aaron was a mega-star as he neared (didn’t sell-out opposing ballparks, or even ours, prior to record chase) the HR record, but he wasn’t homegrown through the ATLANTA system.

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TnBrian:

I think you are talking about Matt Chernoff. Kincade is much older than 32.

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Bad as I hate to say it, Michael Vick was the closest thing we’ve had to a true mega-star.

Dominique Wilkens would like a word with you…

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I love that Son Volt song!

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FEAR–Actually Baldelli is not really a free agent anymore. He agreed to be a roving instructor of some type for Tampa with the caveat that he might try to play again if his health permitted. He is more or less retired at this point, sort of sad.

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I disagree. He is not really that good-pretty unimpressive at Gwinnett late last year. He will be back there to start this season.

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Headed out to watch Braves batting practice. DOB I will be guy in 115 in the white GT cap.

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Greg in TN……….I understand what you said in your 10:09am post about the experience of ML at-bats in Spring Training for someone like Jason Heyward. Sure, he may be pumped to face a Roy Halladay tonight.

However, do you think that Halladay is going to be “as pumped” facing Heyward? My point is that he’s all about getting his work in and making sure that he’s one step closer to being ready on Opening Day. He isnt going to try and strike out the side like it’s game 7 of the World Series.

I’ll watch tonight’s game with a passing interest. However, I’ll get “excited” when the regular season starts.

I also pleased to see that you agree with me that the smart economic move would be to start Heyward in Triple A to begin the season.

However, it’s amusing to see you falling into the proverbial “hometown discount” trap that many on here are pushing for. Dont get me wrong, as a Braves fan, I would love to see them sucker Jason Heyward into signing a hometown discount. The Braves have an incredible bargain with Brian McCann’s contract. He will continue to be vastly underpaid throughout that contract, allowing the Braves have more money to be used to improve the team down the line.

My 7:43pm and 9:38pm posts in yesterday’s blog explains why Jeff Francoeur’s gamble didnt hurt him all that much. Despite McCann putting up far superior numbers and making 4 All-Star games………….Francoeur has made almost as much money as McCann. In fact, if Francoeur were to have a good year with the Mets in 2010, he would be in line to increase his $5 mil 2010 salary past the $6.5 mil that McCann is scheduled to make in 2011.

Money rules. It’s simple as that. I’m not saying that it is right or fair. I’m saying that it’s REALITY. If Braves management lets emotion get in the way, then Heyward starts the year in Atlanta. But if logic and the long term view prevail, then Heyward will be the Opening Day right fielder in Gwinnett.

Deferred gratification is an economics term that basically means “putting off now for a bigger gain later on”.

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Dominique sold a few tickets, but didn’t pack the Omni on a consistent basis, much less other arenas.

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Let’s call him “sliced bread”

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Turnip Green: Hank Aaron was a BRAVES product, through the Milwaukee Braves farm system. They moved to Atlanta in 1965 ! Learn some history !

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I’m a huge Heyward fan but some of the comments from people are a bit too much. He has awesome talent that’s undeniable but until he plays an entire season healthy in the ML I’m going to temper my excitement. I can almost bet my house that if Heyward comes out and doesn’t hit very well many of the Pro-Heyward crew on this board will say that he should’ve started the season in AAA or some other non-sense type stuff!

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Ever since Vick went down for his criminal activity, there has been a vacancy for the throne of “the man” in the city of Atlanta. Ladies and Gentleman, that vacancy is now occupied.

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chuck

Agreed with that Mcnulty analysis.Thanks for recognizing the name. People seem to see my name and assume I’m a little middle school twit.

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TnBrian

if you were listening at noon then it was either Matt Chernoff or Chuck Oliver. They arevdown in Disney this week for Spring Training

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Brian……………how did the Braves attempt to sign Jeff Francoeur to a long term contract work out by the way? The Braves came up snake eyes (even though the Braves lucked out………the fact remains that they tried to sign him to a long term contract and he refused because he was gambling that his play would all him to get a bigger contract).

For every Brian McCann who for whatever reason wants to sign the “hometown discount”……..there’s a Jair Jurrgens and Yunel Escobar who are more than content with going to salary arbitration.

As I said yesterday, if Heyward is as good as advertised, then the players that he needs to be compared to is Tim Linecum and Mark Reynolds. A few days difference in service time is the difference between Linecum being allowed to make $8 mil this year (plus a $2 mil bonus) as a Super 2…………..and Reynolds being stuck with making $500K.

If Jason Heyward starts the 2010 season with the Braves………then if both he and Tommy Hanson continues to play well, both players will be eligible for salary arbitration after the 2012 season. Just imagine if one wins the MVP while the other wins a Cy Young in the next 3 years? The Braves payroll would skyrocket through the roof.

Why not ease in the figures by delaying Heyward’s clock by 1 year? It just does not make economic sense in the long term to satisfy some misguided need to see Jason Heyward on the Opening Day roster at the expense of one more year under the Braves control. Let him rake at Triple A until mid to late May, then call him up and unleash him like they did Tommy Hanson.

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I’m still not sure why this is even a question or a topic of debate? The only thing out on Heyward is positive. Baseball America’s number one prospect in the world, stories of him breaking windshields and denting cars, remarks by veterans saying they see him starting opening day, his Spring statistics. The writing is on the wall, and I am pretty baffled as to why every day is there a story questioning him making the big team? This is the guy that Atlanta fans and teammates have been waiting for, for years, minus Francouer not making it happen. There is no question that Jason will be making the team and starting for the Braves, atleast until the Braves decide to not pay him.

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Ghost of PL…you aren’t serious about winning this year…if i have to send him down, he needs to be back by April 15…you give away too many games waiting until June like with Hanson.

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thinbreakness……….when the Braves send Tommy Hanson down to Triple A to open the 2009 season, was his trust shattered? Did he fall apart because he was disappointed that he didnt open the season with the Braves? After all, it was common knowledge that he was more than ready after Spring Training of 2009.

What he did was go down to Triple A and dominate for 2 months. He showed the Braves that he was in fact ready. When he was called up in early June, he proved it. The Braves still have 3 full seasons of Tommy Hanson before he is eligible for arbitration. It would be economic suicide for the Braves to not do the same thing with Heyward.

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PL, again, Hanson needed the innings anyway…so it was a win-win…plus we didn’t have a great shot to make the postseason last year…this year I say we do.

The only reason it’s economic suicide is because you louses won’t spring for tix at the park…get out to a game and support the team…plenty more will be, believe me…and then what’s going to be economic suicide? The new $110MM payroll?

Try to map out a future that isn’t based completely on the present, please.

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gohst of PL For every Brian McCann who for whatever reason wants to sign the “hometown discount”……..there’s a Jair Jurrgens and Yunel Escobar who are more than content with going to salary arbitration.

unless i really missed something, jurrjens and escobar have yet to be offered a multi-year contract. it doesnt make sense to cite them in this discussion.

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Here’s a theory for you guys, If the Braves could sign Pujols to an 7 yr extension, disregarding the money, would you trade Heyward for Pujols? Why? or Why not?

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Alright, DOB’s qoute from Cox about Heyward should pretty much end any talk of whether or not he starts the season in Atlanta. He will. You can’t NOT have him opening in RF for our team.

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Here’s a theory for you guys, If the Braves could sign Pujols to an 7 yr extension, disregarding the money, would you trade Heyward for Pujols? Why? or Why not?

I don’t think Pujols will be as productive 7 years from now.

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Chuck, I think it’s far from a given that Heyward is going to entirely change the Braves payroll structure to a near yankees type level (which would be what it would take for $5mill not to matter). We don’t know that he’s a “different kind of special”. He hasn’t even played 1/5th a season at AAA. He may end up being some kind of superstar, but it’s not quite the guarantee you seem to think it is. Especially considering he’s already had some injury issues.

I’m excited to have him here and all, and I’ll be excited to see him in RF on opening day. But this is just crazy talk that he’s virtually guaranteed to totally transform the Braves from a midmarket team to one of the top 4 or so spenders.

Albert Pujols hasn’t transformed the Cardinals to a top spending team. They’re still midmarket. So basically you’re saying Heyward is basically guaranteed to be much better than Pujols?

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I was about to say DOB, you did a hell of a write up for our lowly #7 hitter.

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If Heyward’s not hitting 7th, where would you put him? probably 5th or 6th? and move down Yuni?

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Anybody else read the article with Heyward that asked which number he’d choose in Atlanta and he said he’s worn 24 quite a bit through the minors, but said maybe #1.

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joe, I like him hitting 2nd in front of Chipper.

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Ok, instead of using the “6 years down the line” argument, I’ll use 3 years and $12 mil.

In a post I made yesterday, I stated that if the Giants had waited 10 more days before they called up Tim Lincecum in 2007, then instead of paying him $8 mil and a $2 mil bonus for 2010……he would be making less than $1 mil in 2010. That is a difference of $9 mil dollars that the Giants wouldnt have to pay Lincecum this season. if they had paid better attention to his arbitration clock.

Not only that, but instead of paying Lincecum the $8 mil and $2 mil bonus he would have probably gotten in 2011 if 2011 was his first year eligible for arbitration…………he will instead be getting $13 mil.

So $9 mil extra the first year, $3 mil extra the second year equals $12 mil that the Giants could have used towards improving the team.

Meanwhile, Mark Reynolds, who will only make around $500K this season despite hitting 44 homers last season……because he missed qualifying as a Super 2 by ONE FREAKING DAY!

Sure, If Heyward plays 3 full seasons, then he wont qualify as a Super 2, he’ll qualify as a regular arbitration eligible player. However, if the Braves delay his clock by 2 months, then they will have him for 4 full months this year and 3 full seasons afterward.

It’s a no brainer. Heyward signing a Brian McCann type contract is a pipe dream. If he’s as good as advertised, he’s going to command a fortune.

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And keep in mind FJR, we have had a payroll in excess of 100MM as recently as 2 years ago, it’s just that it’s been poorly spent….we aren’t mid-market like St Louis. We are upper middle class, and we will remain content to run the best farm system in baseball and compensate with that.

A bump of 10MM to 15MM a year from him and Hanson and that’s another superstar…

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Ghost of PL:

How will you feel if the Braves miss the playoffs by 1 win that they could have gotten from Heyward’s offense and defense during the two-week period that he plays in AAA? Two weeks is at least 10 games. Remember when Tampa did this with Longoria they had no hope of contending that year. With Heyward and Glaus, we may finally have an offense. Although we still lack a leadoff man. Maybe Melky can fill that role. If we don’t break camp with Heyward in Atlanta, then this team is more interested in money than winning. That’s a bad message to send to the fans.

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Why not consider batting J-Hey at 2? He is already selective on which pitches he swings at and can work the count – if he draws a walk Chipper follows, if they give him something to hit he has every chance of hitting it. If he does really well and he is batting at 7 there would be a temptation to not give him anything to hit with number 8 and the pitcher coming up.

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I love the fact The Know-It-All Himself doesn’t understand that just 10 days or so gets the Braves an extra year of control. Doesn’t take two months, genius.

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After throwing 2 scoreless innings in his ST debut., Strusburg said “I just wanted to throw strikes today. If they hit it, they hit it. Big deal.” Love that kind of swagger. I think the NL East is going to be a lot of fun to watch ovfer the next 5 years or so…

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2010/news/story?id=4979597

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Are they saying Strasburg will start in AAA?

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Joerochester – they have said he will start in the minors… some suggested he might start lower than AAA so that he can start in a warmer climate and be sure to get regular work… their AAA is in Syracuse.

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The only way that the Braves payroll changes is if an individual owner who doesn’t care how much money he loses buys them.

Probably, but 3MM in attendance would go a long way toward loosening the pursestrings of any owner, individual or corporate.

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There are two different issues here. One is the issue of whether or not the Brave’s hold down Heyward long enough to avoid him being a “Super 2″ player before the 2013 season. To that, I’m betting there is no way that happens.

Issue #2 is more complicated. If the Braves keep Heyward down for 10 days at the start of the season, he will become a free agent after the 2016 season. If the Braves start the season with him on the opening day roster, he will be a free agent after the 2015 season. Basically, by holding Heyward back 10 days right now, the Braves have the opportunity to delay his free agency by an ENTIRE YEAR. Considering that the odds are that Heyward would be 1 win better than Melky at most over the course of 10 games, the Braves have a very real interest in keeping him down for a week and a half to delay his free agency. I don’t know what the final outcome will be, but from a pure #’s standpoint it seems like an easy choice for the FO.

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J-Hey’s AB song should be “Forever” by Drake. No doubt.

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J-Hey’s AB song should be “Forever” by Drake. No doubt.

Really? I was thinking “Be with You” by Mr. Big.

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J-Hey’s AB song should be…………

Angel of Death by Slayer

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flange1, that’s not totally correct either. Their ERAs were virtually identical, Hanson actually had a better K/BB ratio. Medlen had a lower ERA, which made the justification easier, but it was 100% a financial move, not because the Braves thought Medlen was more ready. Anybody who saw both pitch at the time (and I rode down to Gwinnett to see a few games) can tell you that Hanson was more ready at that time.

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Drake’s “Forever” is lyrically matched to J-Hey’s story though. “I don’t plan on stoppin at all, I want this $*%t forever man.”

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FJR,

I wasn’t making an assumption one way or the other. I was just trying to lay out the different scenarios for those that were arguing this. I disagree that Bobby “doesn’t care about the future” of the org, but do think that it’s probably more likely than not that Heyward starts the year in ATL. From a numbers standpoint it doesn’t make sense, but from a psychological standpoint for the chemistry and mood of the players on the team, it’s probably the right move. Either way, as Braves fans we’ll hopefully get to see at least 6 years of a potentially great player, maybe more.

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DOB – Put me down for a yeah on #71 starting opening day in RF. But what’s up with our other prospect Freeman – two base running gaffes in like six games – stuff that you usually learn at age 10.

Go Braves – we west coasters get them over here at Dunedin Sunday!

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No No No!!!

J-Hey’s AB-Intro song hold be “Creepin On Ah Come Up!” by old Bone Thugs N Harmony…

or “Here I Go!” by Mystikal…Good shyt…!

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It would be great if Heyward’s intro music was this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dGcYH6Fwj8

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Or this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWSevt_i51w

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“Space Monkey
March 9th, 2010
4:42 pm
Two weeks is at least 10 games. Remember when Tampa did this with Longoria they had no hope of contending that year. ”

My history’s a little hazy, but I seem to recall Tampa Bay playing in the World Series that year.

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ugh, I’m gonna do it. I HATE, HATE, HATE when people post lineups. So, now I’m a hypocrite. I get it. If all you have in response is words of hate, I can understand that.

However, if anyone wants to walk down this road with me, I would love your input. This lineup assumes a few things:

- Chipper bounces back in his BA, but not so much his power. (Fair guess,I bet)
- Cabrerra could play lead off (who the heck knows if that works?)
- Prado’s ego would allow him to bat 8th, even though he is a bad@$$ .300 hitter who is a fan fav. (I think he would be ok)
- Heyward plays like the rockstar many think can be, even now.

Cabrerra LF
Jones 3B
Heyward RF
Glaus 1B
McCann C
Escobar SS
McLouth CF
Prado 2B
Starting Pitcher

Any feedback? (ya know, other than how lame it is that I posted a lineup?)

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Do you think Bobby will manage this team (mainly the offense) any better this year with the addition of J-Hey?

No, but good players always make the manager seem smarter.

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I for one would like to see Bobby use a lot more hit-n-runs this year instead of waiting for the 3-run homer…

Nothing wrong with an agressive offense…

D.O.B. or anyone else for that matter

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Dave – If all goes according to plan, when can we expect Proctor to be ready to go in ATL?

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LOL, UGAaccountant. I remembered reading that, but I couldn’t find it to quote it. “tampa had no shot to compete that year” making it easier to send Longoria to the minors.

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C’s

I think DOB said hes way ahead of schedule and could be ready mid April.

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FJR

Phil Plantier…?

WOW I had a crapload of his Upper Deck 1991 Rookie cards and you are right they were hot on the streets back then as well as Brien Taylor and David Nied…

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How long is Melky signed through?

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Tomahawkin – damn Brien Taylor……what a bust. His gold rookie card from Topps was going for like 300 bucks in those old Beckett mags. I think my little league card might be worth more now

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Tomahawkin, as was just said….

Heyward is gonna make Bobby look smart

Stat of the day and I’m not sure of anybody has mentioned this before? McCann was the only position player to crack twenty HR’s last year. The last time that happened……..1988.

So to say that Glaus and Heyward are critical to ramping up the power numbers and helping the Braves offense is a no brainer.

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chuck……..oh, I want to see the Braves win this year. However, I’m a realist. The Phillies will be tough. Not having Jason Heyward for the first month and a half of this season wont kill us. After all, last year, we had 2 months of Kelly Johnson, Jeff Francoeur and Jordan Schafer SUCKING A$$ and dragging down our lineup. Despite that, the Braves were able to make a surge and compete for a Wild Card.

It’s a long season. I’m sure that the Braves can get enough outfield production from Matt Diaz, Nate McLouth, Melky Cabrera and Omar Infante until it’s time to bring up Jason Heyward.

Also, allowing McLouth and Cabrera to start the year as starters will allow the Braves to showcase them in potential trades when they decide to bring up Jason Heyward. If McLouth or Cabrera start off the season raking at the plate, their return in any prospective trade would only help the Braves.

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P’cola oh I didnt relalize we signed Adam Larchoe again

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AJJ

His name is Troy Glaus

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Coach

Man! That was a Damn Good Stat you just mentioned! even my Athlon Sports Baseball Magazine didn’t mention that…

That stat is scientific proof that the HGH/Steroid era is over….

An uggh that magazine stated that Jurrigens gave up 2 runs or fewer in 24 of his 36 starts but yet didn’t win more than 15 games. Thanks TP and the offense!

What do you expect from Troy Glass this year…?

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I am so looking forward to this season!

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Glen W……….Ok, we’ll just have to agree to disagree on Tommy Hanson not being ready after Spring Training 2009. I feel he showed in both the Arizona Fall League and in Spring Training that he was ready.

However, why did the Braves bring up Kris Medlen in early May instead of Tommy Hanson? What, do you really think that Medlen was more ready than Hanson? Do you really think that Hanson needed 3 more weeks and that Medlen was more polished at that point?

The evidence emphatically shows that the Braves called up Hanson once it became apparent that he wouldnt qualify as a Super 2. Why is that so hard to see?

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JOE

Right I agree. But Schafer won’t come up to sit or split time. You’ll have Diaz, Mclouth, Heyward and Melk in the outfield all year. If you move Melk the only logical choice to fill it is Schafer but I don’t see the braves bringing him up to split time. They may be able to move Melk in the offseason before the tender deadline but I just don’t think theres anyway they move him this year.

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Gluas if healthy will pound out his normal 25-30 HR, 90-100 RBI numbers.

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SORRY…HA HA…SINGER ZAC YOUNG ON YOUTUBE!

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ok do we need a bouncer now?

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Really good day for me on the market! (Actually been a good two weeks.)

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David O’Brien……….Oh, I guess that you didnt read my take on the Tim Lincecum and Mark Reynolds situations?

Perhaps the discrepancies in their salaries and service time accumulated went way above your head? If you cant see how what happened with them could affect the way the Braves handle Heyward……then I’m not sure why you have a job blogging. After all, it’s pretty clear to me how juggling service time can mean the difference between a player making less than $1 mil in a year as opposed to $8 mil in salary as well as a $2 mil bonus.

Also, ask Mark Reynolds how 1 FREAKING DAY of service time is affecting his pay this season.

Perhaps if you would do some more homework instead of caving in to your emotions and fulfilling the need of the masses to have their immediate need of a feel good fix that would temporarily result from having Jason Heyward in the Opening Day lineup……..then you would be able to take a step back and logically look at this. For you to belittle my “economic suicide” comment shows that you are indeed short sighted and incapable of engaging in a discussion that goes beyond your level of comprehension.

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Coach

Troy Glaus if he doesn’t get injured produces .265 22-80, “Bank On It!” not to mention the braves could have the weakest corner infielders as far as defense goes with Chipper and Troy Glass at first…expect 30-40 errors from them 2…

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Ghost – I’ll agree to disagree as well.. now if you could be as respectful with you other comments we’d be making some progress here… good grief. DOB disagreed with you. How about you agree to disagree with him?

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To everyone who thinks Heyward should start the season in the minors to “save money,”

Quick Finance Lesson: Let’s assume 2% interest rates (absurdly high given this economy, but we’ll go with it since its unbelievably conservative). Let’s also assume that Heyward produces as well as Ryan Howard in his first 5 years (also ridiculous, especially given Howard’s production as a young slugger and the fact that Howard was 25 when he entered the league with Minor League experience, but again, we’ll go with it to appease any doubters). Here’s Howard’s actual contract intake, and then a similar one if it had been 3 years before he hit arbitration:
Real Other
06 – $400k $400k
07 – $900k $450k
08 – $10mm $900k
09 – $15mm $10mm
10 – $19mm $15mm
11 – - $19mm

In a financial transaction, you have to factor in the Time Value of Money (anyone who took an Intro Finance course in college learned this). It’s the concept that you’d rather me give you $1 today than give you $1 tomorrow. That’s where the interest rate comes in. It “evens the playing field” between the value of $ in the future and $ now.
Present value (as of 2006) of total $ paid through 2010 (or 2011 in the second scenario) using our 2% rate:
PV(Real): 42.584mm PV(Other): $42.196mm

So overall, we’re looking at a TOTAL difference of less than 400k (or one major league minimum salary) over the 5/6 year window that Arbitration covers. Is H[o/ey]ward locked up for one extra year in the dream scenario? Yes. But its quite clear the Braves plan on signing him long term and making him the new face of their franchise if he has this kind of production, so they would still get the same years of service later, just with payments moved up one year.

If you think that having Heyward for the first 2 months, or even 2.5 weeks, isn’t worth $400k to the Braves in sales, merchandise, media coverage, chances to win the division, and good graces with Heyward for negotiating in the future, then you need to learn just how big of a business baseball is.

In summary, keeping Heyward in the minors is the wrong decision from a baseball standpoint, since he’s our best option in RF AND a finance perspective since the Braves plan to make more off of him than the maximum possible $400k (less if he commands lower salaries obviously) they’re going to lose by having him in the majors.

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Haha. Oops…Sorry for the length. It’s worth the read if you’d like to understand how the Braves are probably thinking about the financial side of things though…

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Space Monkey………your Evan Longoria analogy was totally off base. Tampa Bay went to the World Series the year that they called up Longoria and signed him to that long contract. Longoria spending the first 2 weeks of the 2008 season did not hurt Tampa.

You might want to do some better homework next time.

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Gluas if healthy will pound out his normal 25-30 HR, 90-100 RBI numbers.

Again, I agree. What’s going on here anyway? LOL!

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Ghost

It wasn’t known at the time that Glavine wasn’t going to be ready. As for why they didn’t call him up right away when this was determined, what do you do w/ Hanson when Glavine ready? Once Schafer didn’t pan out and the mclouth move was made they cut ties w/ Glavine and promoted Hanson. Why promote him in early May when if you can wait two-three weeks and save on him since you’ve already got him down there. Medlen was dominating when he got called up. Go look at the numbers and tell me whose was better between Medlen and Hanson. Hanson’s biggest problem was he was throwing a lot of pitches early in games.

The Hanson/ Heyward comparison is hard to make. Hanson may make 5-10 starts in April and May where Heyward may play in 50+ games. Heyward will make a lot more of an impact then Hanson would have. Why would you send your best prospect down when hes your BEST OPTION on a PLAYOFF CONTENDER.

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Heyward is revenue. In ATL yes he is. Would like to have Schafer’s arm in CF but that bat was bad. He needs to prove he can mash AAA pitchers for a season IMO.

FEAR – Hope hes not traded this year. I think his stock is low. Even if he rips it up at G-town other GMs will say, “what about 09?’

Take it easy folks, off to my fantasy draft.

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There’s a lot of homework being assigned today.

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Home of the Braves. Your math is off. You have a difference of 4 million dollars in 2010. The 2006 value of 4 million dollars in 2010 was 3.6 million. So for just that year ALONE, the difference in value is 9 times what you stated the TOTAL difference was.

How in the HECK did you get a present value difference of just 400K? When the difference was millions for several years? Did you make the extra year the second contract has “free” for the first contract? That is, did you count the 19 million against the second scenario, when there wasn’t a 2011 year in the first”real” contract scenario?

Your concept is correct, but your execution is off. You can’t count the 2011 salary in the second scenario against it, when there isn’t a 2011 contract year in the real scenario.

The only difference between a contract negotiation if J-Hey sits out the first 9 games of the season and if he doesn’t is 2016 is a FA year if he sits out.

As can be shown, a CONSERVATIVE estimate of the differences between how much it costs to buy out a FA year is about 4 mill more for a legit player than if it was an arbitration year. Not even taking inflation of contracts into account. Discounting to the present, this difference is worth 3.5 mill in today’s money.

Not 400K.

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Now, I really hope nobody is really arguing to hold J-Hey back long enough to avoid him being a super 2. That really could mean no playoffs.

There is a difference between holding him back long enough to avoid becoming a FA in 2016 and long enough to avoid becoming a super 2.

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Joe where would they play Schafer. They arent going to bring him up to sit the bench. Only way he comes up is if a player gets hurt or Melky or Diaz get traded. Probably at some point in the season an OF will get hurt at least for a couple of weeks, so he may see a few weeks but thats about it.

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Tomahawkin

I think a lot of Schafer struggles had to do w/ his wrist. His wrist was bad enough that hes still not playing yet. He may not have been ROY but I think he was solid from the little bit we’ve seen. I agree he still has to prove himself. But so does Heyward. There both unproven and still have to prove their worth. I don’t think Schafer is in the same range as Heyward but still has the abilities to be a ML contributor. His biggest problem was the inability to adjust to that inside fastball. All rookies have holes and I think they can work it out. He will be a big factor for the Braves in the future… maybe as soon as ‘11.

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We’re hyping this kid up WAY too much. He is looking good for Spring Training sounds like. Hopefully, the new nickname surfaces soon. That t-shirt needs to be shat upon. Son Volt rocks!

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Hope that Cincinnati dealer has good luck selling that print. Mines’s better and I give it away free to Denizens. Heyward didn’t sign mine, either (but I tried).

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Thanks guys for giving me a headache before I go home to watch the Bravos. I won’t be able to appreciate a pitch or a hit or anything else without worrying about arb figures, etc.!

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Paul is back?? Oh Jeez…

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Tomahawkin

He had a broken bone in his wrist. Pujols couldn’t hit with a broken wrist. If you don’t like Schafer that’s fine. But cut the kid a little slack

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David O’Brien………….your 5:41pm post just shows that you play favorites with those who agree with you and never question anything you have to say.

The examples of both Tim Lincecum and Mark Reynolds clearly show the benefits and consequences of a team being aware of the accumulation of service time towards Super 2 status. For you to not read it because of any personal animosity you have towards me, just shows how truly unprofessional you are.

The numbers dont lie. Just because they dont play into your “Jason Heyward will open the 2010 season in Atlanta” chorus, does not mean that they should be dismissed.

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joerochester-Probably, but I have to send out bout 65 prints and found out today I broke my foot at Disney and am hobbling around right now. I’ll get to it sometime soon – unless I get REALLY lazy.

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Lew

Broke your foot at Disney???? Stumble on the steps at the stadium or what?

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Lew – be careful with that foot, I smashed my foot on my stair-fall before Christmas and am still having all sorts of problems… and my foot was not broken, just a Chien Ming Wang kind of thingy

I am super-hyped about 2010… we are better and deeper and the Glaus monster has just awoken..

beware fillies

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LEW

That print of that guy from law school is awesome.

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Home of the Braves………..your 5:43pm post was way off base. Your analysis doesnt make sense.

What does make sense is Tim Lincecum and Mark Reynolds. Why dont you do an analysis on what a difference a few days of service time makes in their future salaries……and then get back with me?

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Mercy rule, Steve.

Mercy rule.

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Oh, somebody please make it stop.

I’m begging. I’m Bernie in Miller’s Crossing. “Paulie, you can’t do dis! Dey can’t make us do dis! It’s a wrong situation. You’re not like those animals! I’m praying to you! I can’t… I can’t read these posts… out here in the web… like a dumb animal. I can’t! No! I’m praying to you. Look in your heart. I’m praying to you. Look in your heart, Paul!”

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Rob From SC

I may be a little hard on Schafer, but I thought last year after his struggles in 2 weeks in the majors that he was overrated… especially since he didn’t have the stats in AA plus HGH admissions that he was worth the hype. That’s why I’m so skeptical plus his range and defense was average…I think he needs a year in AAA to get older and wiser and fill out his frame….He is still young

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anyone got the pbp tonight? i’m at work………………..

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Jinx, yeah I think you are dreaming,but isn’t hope wonderful?

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Yeah, let us all drop what we are doing go sit in our corners silently and do the math….

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Just Pat-No, thought I was skinny enough to start running and found out I still weigh too much. Got a Prado autograph for my efforts, but have to sit around for a couple more weeks until it heals. It;s right in the middle of the foot and supposedly i in a place that heals quickly.

joerochester-They paid me enough for that to buy my computer.

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Jayson Stark tweeted this today on Strasburg:

One scout’s instant review of Strasburg: “Makes Porcello look like he’s playing catch with his sister.”

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Tomahawkin, sorry about the caps, but dangit, I get tired of people treating a broken wrist like a hangnail. Remember how it took Sandberg two years to get his power back? And he was an experienced major leaguer. Was he called up too soon? Maybe. But his troubles with the inside fastball would have been a whole lot easier to tackle had he had the strength in his wrist to do so. It is a very damaging thing, especially from a strength perspective. I would be surprised if he hits many home runs this year in AAA; I think it will take him until next year to gain the strength back. It also disappoints me that it took the organization as long as it did to figure it out; wasted a lot of valuable time.

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Tomahawkin – Yeah I started in ‘88. Had a bunch. even a Boog Powell autographed card. WOW! haha.
sold ‘em all for like a 100 bucks to some little kid in my neighborhood. Remember the billy ripken card that said “f*ck off” on the bat knob? That was a collectors item.

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“The Ghost of P.L.

March 9th, 2010
6:25 pm
P’cola Brave………….very few rookies come out and dominate right away. He’s only 20 years old. I think that it is foolish to put your season hopes on a 20 year old who has only a few bats in Triple A.

The move is to let him get a couple of months of at-bats in Triple A. If he performs in a similar fashion that Hanson performed in, then call him up and insert him into the right field position.”

I hope you realize this is not going to happen, don’t you? The consolation is that if he struggles you can say to all of us “I told you so.” On the other hand, if he winds up rookie of the year…

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DOB
Racoon in stands today at Pt St Lousy. We heard screams from stands on 3rd base side and saw people jumping around and thought it was the wave. When it got closer we saw a racoon coming thru the stands . It exited at the bullpen on 3rd base side. Fastest bullpen movement you have ever seen.

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Maybe some of you guys will understand it this way:

In order to qualify as a Super 2 in 2010, players had to end the 2009 season with at least 2 years, 139 days of service. Tim Lincecum had 2 years, 148 days. Mark Reynolds had 2 years, 138 days.

Linecum made it by 9 days. Reynolds missed it by 1 day. Lincecum will make $8 mil plus a $2 mil bonus in 2010. Reynolds will make around $500K in 2010.

If you reverse the situation, then Lincecum would make less than $1 mil in 2010………while Reynolds would easily get over $5 mil.

Starting or delaying one’s arbitration clock just doesnt affect one year. It affects subsequent years because arbitration automatically awards raises based on play AND previous year’s salary.

Because of his Super 2 status, Tim Lincecum will not only make $10 mil this year ($8 mil salary plus $2 mil bonus), but he’ll be making $13 mil next year. If Lincecum had not qualified as a Super 2 this year………..do you really think that he would be making $13 mil next year?

If Lincecum continues his success, what do you think his salaries will be in years 2012 and 2013? What kind of free agent contract do you think he will be able to command after the 2013 season? It’s mind boggling what this kid could end up making……..all because of his success AND his Super 2 status.

If Jason Heyward turns out to be the real deal, his salaries will escalate in a similar fashion, unless the Braves can delay his clock in the same fashion that they delayed Tommy Hanson.

Some of you keep bringing up Brian McCann’s contract. However, he was brought up in early June of 2005. At the end of 2005, the Braves still had 3 full seasons over him before he was eligible for arbitration. Isnt it prudent to reason that having 3 seasons instead of 3 helped give the Braves some leverage in signing McCann to the hometown discount contract?

It is naive and foolish to assume that Heyward is going to automatically give the Braves a hometown discount if they dont delay his arbitration clock………just because he is a nice guy, lol. The money that this kid could end up making will be too much for him to ignore. After all, he’s HUMAN, lol.

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So, does anyone think Halladay holds anything back tonight?

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Ghost – “Maybe some of you guys will understand it this way”

I’m still not seeing it… need a much longer post to explain to this simple man…

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wjones…………dude, you truly dont understand what I’ve been saying. It has nothing to do with whether Jason Heyward is ready. In fact, I feel that he is probably ready to hit ML pitching and have a decent year for us.

Even if he were to flop, I would not say “I told you so”…….because my argument isnt that he isnt ready.

My argument all along has been the financial ramifications (super 2 status, free agency, raises in arbitration, etc.) that starting Heyward with the big club on Opening Day would bring. If I was looking at just this year, the move would be to start Heyward and trade Cabrera.

However, I would like to see the Braves be able to afford building a team around Heyward in future years. Having him and Tommy Hanson both eligible for arbitration after 2012 is a frightening prospect.

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Financial discussions…Steve agreeing with Coach…no Dave Matthews posts…

What is going on here? Well, at least Paul is still a jackass. Thanks, Paul!

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About three weeks ago I heard Frank Wren being interviewed on an Atlanta radio station. He was asked if they would consider sending Heyward down like they did Hanson last year and Wren replied that they would not consider such a thing, that if he was one of the best 25 players when they broke camp that he would be in the opening day lineup. He further stated that if he is in that lineup he would be as a full time player and not in a platoon.

So far I see no reason he could not be judged one of the best 10 or 12 players on the team, much less one of the top 25.

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Most expensive Heyward rookie card that I can find–

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAP.dll?ViewItem&item=120522413902&rvr_id-1_263602_263622&UA=WV18&GUID=4550c29f1270a0645301b171ffcb26a4&item

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FJR,
You’re right in saying that I attributed the 2011 salary in the second scenario but not in the first. But that was what I addressed right after the financial analysis. “Is H[o/ey]ward locked up for one extra year in the dream scenario? Yes. But its quite clear the Braves plan on signing him long term and making him the new face of their franchise if he has this kind of production, so they would still get the same years of service later, just with payments moved up one year.”

What I was pointing out, was that if you assume: If Heyward is massively productive, the Braves will make him the face of their franchise and sign him long term, then the difference in payments over the long haul really becomes the present value of one year of pre-arbitration salary (~450k).

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Ghost – don’t you have a pot pie to bake or something? geez…

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FEAR

I started collecting cards in 1989…As a matter of fact I bought my first pack of cards at Underground….

Too Bad myb Mom sold my 35,000 baseball cards at a yard sale in 1994 when I went to baseball practice (I was p’d off at her for 3 years after that) for 20 bucks…!

I’m getting P’d as I type that….Argh!

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Tomahawkin – 20 bucks? You gotta be joking? Did you at least get the money?

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Thirty-five thousand??

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I keep going back and forth on Heyward. Both options have advantages. Neither is a no-brainer.

The Braves have to make the decision and there are still four weeks before opening day. A lot can happen in that amount of time. If he’s hitting .400 at the end, he’ll likely start in Atlanta. If he’s hitting .200, he’ll likely get some AAA at-bats.

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MLB Network…where is the game????

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The Ghost of P.L.: Most everyone that has been on the blog for any length of time already knows the ramifications of starting Jason Heyward from day one on the major league level. The discussion really isn’t about whether it makes financial sense! It is the organizations decision and theirs alone. Yes, the payroll hit will be substantial!
The reason that most on the blog are pleased with the possibility of Heyward starting on opening day is because management is surprisingly valuing the importance of putting our best players on the field, who have the best chance to WIN! Money be damned!!!
It is amazing, is it not!
Oh, one other note, maybe they are sending Mr. Heyward a message. A message that says your special, we want to make you the centerpiece of a team that wants to win and will spend the money to make that happen, when the time is right.

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Damn D.O.B.

I guess I’ved lived in the city and on college campuses too long but I’ve never seen a live raccoon in my life…

I saw a live skunk a year ago…and I was screaming louder than Mariah Carey…

And I saw my first live Aradillo 5 years ago as well as my first deer, too bad I was driving when I saw the later two…

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Why is this game blacked out? The one from last Tuesday wasn’t blacked out.

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Anyone with DirecTV in SC know what channel it’s on? Blacked out on MLB.

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Not even at the bottom half of the 1st and Brian Jordan has already made a few blunders. LOL

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I have Directv…I have the game!

But I am not it Atlanta.

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Im getting the game on the MLB Network just fine on Direct TV.

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This blows!

All pumped to watch the game tonight, but noooooooo.

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man this sucks i was so excited to watch them play now its blacked out!

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Yeah… this is stupid. DirectTV doesn’t carry CSS. I guess since it’s a (spring training) home game they’ve blacked it out in Atlanta? This sucks.

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1-2-3. Easy does it.

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Mixxo, they’ll be another game Thursday, so hopefully you guys blacked out will see it then. That sucks too, sorry man.

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Damn the man. I was ready for some baseball and I’m blacked out and DTV doesn’t carry CSS.

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I guess I’m better off since I knew ahead of time that I have no way of watching the game. No CSS, no MLB Network, no nothin’…

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can anyone be awesome and give play by play

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I do like the balance of the starting line-up.

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Glen W is probably not in GA, NC, or SC.

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Rob from SC………….McLouth has had a couple of good rips so far. 2-2 count.

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DOB–has Chipper ever spoken this highly of a rookie before to you?

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Halladay just showed why he’s probably the best pitcher in baseball. She struck out McLouth on a nasty change-up.

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oh so Nate struck out? big surprise

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Oops, I mean “He struck out McLouth”

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Glen W……….same here. Channel 213 on Direct TV.

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thanks glen. i guess your not in the blackout regions.

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makes no sense that people in minnesota can get it but people from atlanta cant…itd be nice to actually see heyward play one time.

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Nice rip up the middle from Chipper.

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does anyone know if you can get css on direct tv?

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The Ghost of P.L.

“March 9th, 2010
6:49 pm
wjones…………dude, you truly dont understand what I’ve been saying. It has nothing to do with whether Jason Heyward is ready. In fact, I feel that he is probably ready to hit ML pitching and have a decent year for us.

Even if he were to flop, I would not say “I told you so”…….because my argument isnt that he isnt ready. ”

OK, I know that’s what you have been arguing, but the point I was responding to was this one:

“P’cola Brave………….very few rookies come out and dominate right away. He’s only 20 years old. I think that it is foolish to put your season hopes on a 20 year old who has only a few bats in Triple A.

The move is to let him get a couple of months of at-bats in Triple A. If he performs in a similar fashion that Hanson performed in, then call him up and insert him into the right field position.”

In that post, you seemed to indicate that you thought he needed more minor league time. I’m sorry if I misunderstood.

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Stupid TV and MLB execs blacking out games. So disappointing.

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Oh 213 is MLB network on my direct tv and it says I’m in a regional blackout.

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When can i buy my Jason Heyward number 24 jerseys? when do they go on sale?

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wonder if the game is out in the philly area?

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what networks carry css does dish

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The problem with Halladay is that we can’t wait him out to get to their lousy bullpen. Dude’ll just throw a complete game.

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Halladay has some funky stuff. FUNKY

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Mcann struck out top of second

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I guess that I was wrong about Halladay not caring if he strikes out the side or not.

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well least halladay is just one man. least the phils can’t clone him.

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RHR

Whats Up!

Yes, My Narrow a…s is getting violated by the mlb network as well, Arrrghhh!

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KK has been keeping the ball down…looks good so far.

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any radio link?

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DOB — I know is is outta no where… but I just want to say thank you and show my appreciation for all the work that you put in. Being all the way up here in Seattle, no one really wants to talk about the Braves… it’s nice to have an outlet for my obssession. Thanks ol’ pal. =)

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Kawakami was effective in the first and Halliday was just nasty.

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Last week’s game was not blacked out in the “region” because it was a NY station broadcasting it.

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2 -run homer Werth. 2-0 Phils

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I checked around on various radio stations. Nada. Just wacko talk shows and ESPN news.

For future reference: http://www.freebaseballradio.com/Atlanta.html

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Fransisco walks 1 on no out

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thanks, mekons

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Balls are higher from KK this inning…

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Also in a Directv blackout in NC…BUT it’s streaming here… http://www.myp2p.eu/broadcast.php?matchid=68525&part=sports ….you’ll need to download the player they have…streamtorrent or whatever….it’s in the software section…but it works.

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prado with jeter-esque jump throw to get Fransisco at 2nd. 1 on 1 out

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wjones……..my main point all along with Heyward is economics, not whether he is ready or not. However, I also see a side benefit of having him get a few more at-bats in Triple A. If he were to dominate Triple A pitching, then it would only confirm that he is ready.

For instance, the main point of signing Tom Glavine last year was to give Hanson a little more time. At the time, the Braves werent sure that Hanson could step in and be the Opening Day #5 starter. When Hanson showed that he was for sure ready, then the Braves cut Glavine and called him up.

Why not use that same reasoning with Heyward (and potentially save some serious cash in the long run)? Have Heyward start the year in Triple A and when he does the same thing that Hanson did, then call him up and get rid of one of the surplus outfielders.

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6-4-3 to end the inning.

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kawakami rebounded nicely after that 2 run shot by Werth.

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Calvin… I’ll let you do the play-by-play.

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Oh…sorry.

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Escobar grounds out 6-3. 1 out

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