12:41 pm February 24, 2010, by David O'Brien
February 24th, 20103:49 pm
Humbling. Not a single one, except McCann, has stuck.
I think what you mean is “has become a star”, rather than “has stuck”, right? Because I believe at least half of those guys are still cashing ML paychecks five years later. That’s still pretty good scouting, as far as I can tell.
And Glaus’ 162 game averages are 675 plate appearances, 575 ABs, 35 HR, 101 RBI. Even allowing for some erosion for age and PEDs, what’s left ought to be plenty. If healthy. SKINK
I always wonder why people quote 162 game averages. They usually have very little correlation to a regular season since most players don’t play in 162 games most years. Glaus has only done it once and sure isn’t gonna do it this year.
February 24th, 20103:50 pm
OJ, Guess I didn’t have time to do a patent search. Just had a few minutes to chime in on the ole blog and sip in the hype.
February 24th, 20103:51 pm
I for one am REALLY HAPPY to hear that there will be more Braves radio coverage with it sounds like decent pre and post game shows. Finally.
Mr. Rogers—”say the braves continue to be middle of the road the next 5 years, and say JJ, Hanson, and Hayward become big big stars in the big league.”
If those guys all become “big big stars” I highly doubt it would be possible for us to be a middle of the road team.
February 24th, 20103:52 pm
I always wonder why people quote 162 game averages
Because it shows up at baseball-reference.com and people think it actually means something relevant, LOL?
February 24th, 20103:54 pm
DOB and Fischer I mean if they become big stars and the braves remain a middle of the road team..WHEN do we need to worry about them leaving Atlanta for say NY or another team? Are they locked under contract now or for 5 yrs?
DOB when you said “oh boy” I just flashed back to Quantum Leap and Dr Sam Beekett, but instead of leaping from life to life, you were leaping from blog to blog hoping each time that your next post would be the leap home
Wren Killed us
Wren set this franchise back 3+ years by investing almost 25% of our payroll in 2 pitchers. D. Lowe who was 36 at the time was given 60 million???? I wouldn’t sign that guy for half that. And then Wren gives 9 million a year to a guy that’s never pitched in the big leagues and now will become the highest paid middle reliever in the history of baseball. 24 million a year locked up in 2 guys and since they suck so bad we’re stuck with those ridiculous contracts. I’ll give it to Wren b/c he’s trying/spening $$ but he just flat out has no clue what he’s doing. He built a team that can compete for maybe 62 games not 162 games. After the injury bug hits we’ll be lucky to win 75 games.
February 24th, 20103:57 pm
I think Fredi G is obviously the heir apparent in a perfect world. Hopefully he finds his way into the Atlanta dugout next year.
Wow. First off Lowe and Kk do not suck, in fact they are quite good. Second, do you remember the pitching staff in 2008. Pitching is the key for competing for 162 games and they have it.
Gil In Mechanicsville
February 24th, 20103:59 pm
Wren Killed us WOW… did you mommy forget to give you enough hugs this morning? Grow up kid, this is the real world. Would you rather have Omar calling the shots???
February 24th, 20104:00 pm
Wren Killed Us,
Kawakami is penciled in as the number 5 starter. So the whole expensive MR thing is sorta moot at this point. I’m interested to hear what moves would you have made to change our current status?
scoots, you just received the ultimate props – DOB tweeted one of your posts.
February 24th, 20104:01 pm
scoots, you totally took that wrong way. Yes, our scouting department is one of the best. Just looking at that list helps me keep things in perspective when I feel like projecting a 2014 lineup with Schafer, Heyward, Freeman, Johnson and Salcedo and a rotation of Hanson, Jurrjens, Delgado, Vizcaino and Teheran.
Those guys from 2005 were all good ball players and still are. But if anyone on here says they predicted in 2005 that only 1 of those players would still be on the roster in 2010, I’ll call them a liar.
February 24th, 20104:06 pm
regarding your tweet about fourth outfielder if Heyward does not start in right… wouldn’t Hinske be the fourth? or are you counting Hinske as infielder backup while knowing Hinske and Omar can handle corner OF duties as needed
February 24th, 20104:07 pm
I went and checked out a little batting practice today and have to say…if Escobar can keep from annoying the pants off everyone he might win the NL MVP. That kids is GOOD but he’s sure loud. I have no idea what he was saying – guess I should’ve paid more attention in High School Spanish.
February 24th, 20104:08 pm
If Heyward doesn’t make it Mitch Jones may have a chance.
February 24th, 20104:10 pm
Wren killed us
Do you ever have problems doing ordinary tasks like talking to people above you in your job or just interacting with people in general? I worry about some of the people like you on the blog. Like how can they possibly complete simple everyday chores when they can’t understand things that seem so obvious. Of course you can say Lowe’s contract looks bad in hindsight but where were you when he gave the contract out? Most people viewed it as a necessary evil. And if you’re referring to Kawakami with your “highest paid middle relief” crap then take it somewhere else. He already has a spot in the rotation and no matter how hard you try to misremember his season last year, you will still be wrong. He had an ERA under 4 and the only reason he moved to the BP was to make sure it was worth it to offer Hudson a contract. Come on man, if that’s the best you can do, just don’t post.
Heyward is going to make it.
February 24th, 20104:11 pm
Oliver Perez on an 11 M/yr contract. Now that would have killed us…
February 24th, 20104:12 pm
scoots, you totally took that wrong way.
Well, that wouldn’t be news, LOL. You’re right, I’m sure most of us would have thought at least a couple of those guys would still be on the home nine.
But only Bill Shanks thought ALL of them would have, LOL.
February 24th, 20104:13 pm
12 Mill* Sorry, Omar.. didn’t mean to sell your expertise short.
February 24th, 20104:15 pm
That right? Hope it was one with some wit, rather than one that makes me look like a dolt, LOL.
MLB Rumors–Spring Training Wrap-up–Ichiro Speaks « Sports Talk, Rumors and Other Contrarian Insights
February 24th, 20104:16 pm
[...] –Jair Jurrjens is coming along ok from an arm injury scare, but honestly, these stories never end well. Read the AJC story here. [...]
February 24th, 20104:19 pm
He bigged up the moped post.
February 24th, 20104:21 pm
Wow, Cody Johnson, 180 whiffs… that’s better than a strikeout a game in the majors.
There is a firstbaseman playing for the Phillies who has similar stats as Cody Johnson GIL
I’m sorry, you think a career major league batting average of 279 is similar to a career minor league BA of 250 under AA ball? Don’t really know what to say about that other than comparing Johnson to Howard is pretty silly right now. The only things they have in common is great power and huge K totals.
February 24th, 20104:22 pm
Winterville – A ton of fans were pissed off the day Lowe signed for $60M. It was like a punch in the gut how much we overbid the Mets by.
Is it “Nate McLouth” or McCLOUTH like so many here spell it. Just askin’.
February 24th, 20104:24 pm
Thrill, that’s still not enough to make me go the Twitter route, LOL.
I’m such a dinosaur.
February 24th, 20104:28 pm
Aaaaargh! US scores a goal – but, no – about 1/10 second after the period ended…
J. Schafer has become serious trade bait..just don’t see him working his way into the lineup any time soon. He’s just don’t seem to be a bench player, maybe i’m wrong on that. And, for what its worth, i really hope his decline in productivity last year at such a blazing pace doesn’t come into upper mgmnt’s decision to hold down Heyward. Although i could see their concern…..a little….
Thanks for the new Blog, Chief!
thinbreakness …McCann went to 3 All Star games.
February 24th, 20104:29 pm
I get the part about maybe over paying but he wasn’t going to come here for less and with the year he was coming off of, there was alot more praise than backlash. It’s just easier to scream about it after he had a poor year.
Rob from SC
February 24th, 20104:31 pm
USA might lose this game
February 24th, 20104:32 pm
Actually, Schafer is more of an argument that the Braves will have Heyward go north, not the other way around. The organization has never been afraid to go with a kid deemed ready, regardless of his minor league time. And, frankly, the team needs Heyward’s skill set this year more than they needed Schafer’s last year.
February 24th, 20104:36 pm
I expect big things from KK. It seemed he pitched big in big games and it is hard to make a move from japan to us I imagine. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see him play like we thought he would.
February 24th, 20104:37 pm
Howard was a .300 hitter in the minors (.299 to be exact) with all the HRs and Ks. I wish Cody Johnson the best, but he has a ways to go to be in the Howard conversation.
Oh lord. There will be no living with him now!
February 24th, 20104:38 pm
Great article by Mr. Bowman.
I’m ready for the season to start…
Willy Wally – Jennifer Aniston had 25million in earnings according to Forbes, but I’m not sure how to calculate WAR. .:)
That right? Hope it was one with some wit, rather than one that makes me look like a dolt, LOL. SCOOTS
what are the odds?
February 24th, 20104:40 pm
Found out that package tickets are in the process of being printed and should be mailed early next week. Hope to have mine by the end of the week. Tyler in the Braves services offices was so nice when I called to find out.
Nate’s a louth
February 24th, 20104:41 pm
scoots, definitely the truth on Bill Shanks. I was writing a little for Bravesbeat.com back then and Shanks was writing for the main competition (don’t remember who or what site), so I read plenty of his stuff back then, at least the stuff they didn’t charge insider fees. He was definitely an optimist, in every sense of the word.
February 24th, 20104:42 pm
Rob from SC -
Not so fast!
DOB, what is your opinion/feeling on the stats that Boog was talking about and their place in baseball today and the future?
February 24th, 20104:43 pm
what are the odds?
Heavily against, says Vegas, LOL.
Oh lord. There will be no living with him now!
Like, there was before?
February 24th, 20104:44 pm
He was definitely an optimist, in every sense of the word. Pelf
the ultimate prospect-hugger. If you hadn’t made it yet, you were a sure fire hit. Once you made it he would throw you over for another prospect first chance he got.
February 24th, 20104:45 pm
Don’t know if this has been shared here, but I just found this on Yahoo’s top news site:
“Toyoda faces lawmakers: ‘I’m deeply sorry’ (AP) “
February 24th, 20104:46 pm
oops … scratch my last bit … didn’t know the guy’s name is actually Toyoda
February 24th, 20104:47 pm
“I always wonder why people quote 162 game averages. They usually have very little correlation to a regular season since most players don’t play in 162 games most years. Glaus has only done it once and sure isn’t gonna do it this year.” nolie
I don’t have a problem with 162 game averages. To me, especially with a guy with many years of service, it’s a decent sample size of what kind of ratios a guy puts up. For instance, Glaus’s 162 game average for HR is 35. (1 HR every 4.62 games)
According to my trusty calculator, if Glaus plays in 125 games, that means he’ll hit around 27 HR. If he only plays in 100 games, it would be 21. Hell, if he only plays in 70 games he’ll still hit about 15.
You’re always citing sample sizes, aren’t you? Wouldn’t you rather sample size his career, or is a couple of injury laced seasons what you’d base assumptions/predictions on?
My assumption is that if he’s playing in a game, he’s healthy. So, if the guy plays in around 120 games this year, I’ll take that production.
I think he’s the grandson of the founder.
February 24th, 20104:50 pm
February 24th, 2010
So Francoeur, traded to the Mets last season, has some sense of what Heyward is going to go through, and sometime this spring he intends to take Heyward to dinner and give him some advice. –Buster Olney
Oh geez…I’m going to have to find a stick to fend off Frenchy!”
PLEASE ALERT BRAVES SECURITY!!!! PLEASE ALERT SECURITY!!!! BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR A MAN, MID-20′S, LARGE TEETH, WITH FRENCH-LOOKING NAME ON THE BACK OF HIS JERSEY. HAS BEEN KNOWN TO CAUSE SLUMPS ACROSS ENTIRE BATTING ORDERS, AND HAS ALLEGEDLY THREATENED TO KIDNAP BRAVES ROOKIE PHENOM RIGHT FIELDER AND SPEAK TO HIM!!!! PLEASE TAKE EVERY PRECAUTION TO PROTECT OUR PROSPECT FROM THIS MAN!!!!
February 24th, 20104:53 pm
But if anyone on here says they predicted in 2005 that only 1 of those players would still be on the roster in 2010, I’ll call them a liar.
Francoeur being the only one that really stands out as a full on disappointment. He came up such massive Hype. Massive hype. Saw where ESPN (Buster I think) did a piece on Heyward and interviewed Francoeur to get the angle on Home Town Hero Hype.
But seriously out of the following:
You weren’t really looking at superstars in the making. The only one that came up with that tag was Francoeur. McCann didn’t even come up with the hype. It was bestowed upon him by the players on his team and on the opponents teams as he played… In total I see four or five on there that turned out to be less than I thought and the other 13 or 14… well I’m surprised some of them are still in the majors.
February 24th, 20104:54 pm
Tim Brando should be broadcasting this third period would have heard “The iron unkind…” a couple of times now. Sheesh.
February 24th, 20104:55 pm
As much as liked him, keep Frenchy away from Heyward!!!!!
Love Albert King.
February 24th, 20104:56 pm
MZ – I made the same mistake. That’d be like Joe Koke running Coca-Cola.
I did save a screen shot from Yahoo a few weeks ago – it was something about Obama, and the thumbnail pic was one of those cartoonish warps.
February 24th, 20104:57 pm
Nolie, regarding Glaus: How about if I say “allowing for age and PEDS and taking 20 games off for minor injuries and rest, there’s still plenty left.” Would that be more precise?
February 24th, 20104:58 pm
Wren Killed us
Apparently not. People who are killed, can no longer post stupid a$$ nonsense on a blog. Run along now.
February 24th, 20105:00 pm
Nate, the ratios are gonna be the same with his career numbers as they are in 162 games.and the sample size is his entire career not 162 games since it’s all based on career totals. Not really the same thing at all. IMO it causes less knowledgeable folks to expect thos numbers whe the player usually plays 10% less. I have seen posters on several blogs/boards express anger when a player isn’t as good as he ’should’ be ignoring the fact that he played less than 162. It is just an artificial and somewhat misleading way to present info.
February 24th, 20105:01 pm
And, frankly, the team needs Heyward’s skill set this year more than they needed Schafer’s last year.
At the break of camp in 2009, I’d say the team need Schafer’s perceived skill set very much. Perhaps as much as Heywards Perceived skill set. Schafer was to be the “table setter” lead off hitter that this team is still looking for and had hoped to acquire in Damon not more than a few days ago. In addition Schafer was to provide his other skills in his set, decent power, defensive prowess, speed, on base ability. More than Blanco or Anderson provided anyway, It was Schafer or a massive hole in Center. His failure in the bigs was key enough for the team to acquire McLouth for what some thought was too much. The team had nothing in the outfield or firstbase last year.
With McLouth in the wings and the crutch over at first base, one could fairly argue that the Braves need for Heyward, while still high, is slightly below 2009 needs for Schafer.
My guess is, by “Oh boy,” DOB meant to infer that a heck of a lot of things can happen in five years. Let’s worry about 2010 first. Beginning with February.
February 24th, 20105:05 pm
allowing for age and PEDS and taking 20 games off for minor injuries and rest, there’s still plenty left.” Would that be more precise? SKINK
February 24th, 20105:06 pm
Were you not excited about the futures of Kyle Davies, Chuck James, Andy Marte, Macay McBride, Anthony Lerew and Blaine Boyer? Other than Boyer, these guys were all top 10 Braves prospects and big things were expected of them. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say all of those guys have vastly underachieved what most of us expected from them in 2005. I agree that the rest of the guys on that list were fringe prospects at best.
Read my earlier post where I clarify that my point was looking at this list gives me a little perspective when trying to imagine the All-Star laden 2014 lineup and rotation.
February 24th, 20105:07 pm
Taking into account that many ballparks are smaller now than they used to be, wouldn’t Ruth and Maris have been able to hit over 70 hrs? Why is it that when a guy has consistent production he uses PEDs?
February 24th, 20105:10 pm
Gotcha nolie. I guess for guys like me that pro-rate it, and are aware that a guy is not likely to play in 162 games. But I see your angle.
I guess one could take total games played, total HR and still calculate a HR/game average. I’ll assume that it would be within percentage points of the 1 HR every 4.62 games that Glaus averages 162 games.
February 24th, 20105:14 pm
Eric from MO
February 24th, 20105:15 pm
TennPaul you can add Andy Marte with Francouer as the only two being disappointments. Marte came with almost as much hype as Francouer. To begin the season they were the top 2 prospects in baseball. I dont recall which one was one and which one was 2 though.
But I see your angle. N8
I’m sure for you and the Gov it works cause you are aware that is is actually a higher total than their real averages in most cases, but it can deceive less knowledgeable folks.
February 24th, 20105:16 pm
America! F*** yeah!
Well watched, Heath! – just in time for me to go tutoring…
February 24th, 20105:17 pm
Also Kyle Davies had some hype too.
I don’t remember seeing this ‘kid’ mentioned here…could be wrong. 16 years old + 502ft HR = Bryce Harper…
While we’re loosely on the topic of prospects…Cory Rasmus is my pick this year for climbing the prospect list.
February 24th, 20105:18 pm
To begin the season they were the top 2 prospects in baseball. I dont recall which one was one and which one was 2 though. Eric
I don’t remember any such rankings by respected national sites. I mighta missed them, but I find it hard to believe that BBA for instance had them rated that high.I’m sure they were rated as the Braves top two. .Got a link?
Harper is supposed to be the #1 pick in the next draft, I believe.
February 24th, 20105:21 pm
No, I recall reading about it in my local paper though. St. Louis Dispatch and they never write about the Braves. I think it was Baseball America if that sounds right?
February 24th, 20105:25 pm
Bryce Harper is the kid that was on the cover of SI, essentially touting him as the LeBron James of baseball. He has prodigous talent, but this is baseball. Who knows how good he’ll actually be. He’s only 17(I think), skipped his Junior year of HS and is entering the draft early.
Mark in Madison
February 24th, 20105:26 pm
Marte and Francouer were most assuredly never ranked the top two prospects in baseball …. at least not by Baseball America. They have their all-time rankings listed on their website if you want to check, but I’m pretty sure the highest either got was when Marte cracked the top-5.
I think that the reason that the “Baby Braves” did not (largely) succeed was that they were thrown into the majors too early due to injuries to the Braves starters, had they been able to get more seasoning and be brought up when truly ready then they might well have been more successful. Compare that with Schafer, came up, did not succeed, but is still slated to be a contributor in the future because he is able to go back the Minors and will come up again when he is truly ready.
Hopefully “Heyzilla” (my favourite of the names being bandied around on here) will be ready to play on day one of the new season but the Braves are in the stronger position now of not having to throw him in if they feel he needs to spend some time in AAA.
Wasnt Baseball of America but someone did. I even remember the title of the article. It was called Brave New World.
Where are the Braves of the Ted Turner era? We made a BIG trade of Vasquez for that big bopper bat of Melky Cabrera (sp), bet the Yankee fans are really hurting over that one. Then we signed that big bopper that no doubt will hit 40 homers this year if he can get out of bed and has played an amazing 6 games at 1st base.
Braves fans there is NO doubt with the offseason pickups, we have to be favored to win the World Series!
I better run down and get my tix right away!
February 24th, 20105:27 pm
Nevermind I looked it up. BBA had Marte ranked 9th and Frenchy 13th. Of course there have been guys rated higher than that who pooped out.
February 24th, 20105:34 pm
I better run down and get my tix right away! Old Brave
while you’re at it get some eXlax too, maybe you’ll feel better
Old Brave – you really think that Javy was traded for Cabrera? Did you read any of the comments about the prospects that came over? In the long run we could be talking about that deal as being almost as significant as the Renteria trade which brought over Jurrjens.
February 24th, 20105:36 pm
Yes, Todd Van Poppel hears you
You did get to see it, right?
February 24th, 20105:38 pm
Because he’s full of crap
February 24th, 20105:39 pm
Germany is catching up with us in medal count….
VJ is off to work- yeah, he got to watch it on the computer
February 24th, 20105:41 pm
Not to mention the fact that Cabrera is only 25 yrs old. Add in a top young pitching prospect and another young arm who may make the team this year and its not a bad deal for a 1 year rent a player.
What an excellent article by Boog. I even went back to see the game, and the expression chipper made was priceless, Joe giggled, he knew what was going on.
February 24th, 20105:45 pm
people seem to forget we got two pitchers, one of which was their number one prospect, from the Yankees in that Vasquez trade. two years down the road, when he is taking D. Lowe or KK’s spot in the rotation, we’ll be saying, “dang that was a great trade”…face it, we just couldn’t keep all of the starting pitchers we had and we simply couldn’t ditch Lowe or KK so it had to be Vasquez..
February 24th, 20105:46 pm
I want to thank DOB, or whoever flipped the switch that now allows me to come straight to the AJC Braves page from my iPhone bookmarks. A few of us talked about it the other day and now it’s fixed. Awesome. Thank you.
February 24th, 20105:50 pm
OK…announcer just put grueling and curling in the same sentence….that’s a bit much, even if he does have a tender back.
February 24th, 20105:51 pm
Good grief… Francouer and Davies might have been high on the list of Braves top prospects but there were never even considered one of the top 40 or so prospects in the entire minor leagues. And Chuck James? Really?
Heyward and Hanson are not sure bets to make the Hall of Fame or even an All Star team right now. But they are the most advanced prospects to come through the organization since Andruw and Andruw had some pretty solid years. Why are we comparing them to Francouer and Davies and marte and Chuck James?
Oh…glad I didn’t ruin it for him. I tried to not give any scoring updates.
TG from CA
February 24th, 20105:56 pm
“Where are the Braves of the Ted Turner era?”- Old Brave
Ted owned the team from 76-96. Those teams combined for a losing record, however, one championship in his 20th season. This current team will be fine, don’t be such a downer
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