2:07 pm February 12, 2010, by David O'Brien
February 12th, 20106:17 pm
Those are his career numbers, whatever the size. Thick
predictive stats are all about sample size for any reliability. has no bearing that they are his entire career stats in that category , they are too small to have a lot of meaning. It may stay that way but we certainly can’t jump to that conclusion on such relatively few at bats. If you’re gonna use a stat to back up your point, it should do so with little room for error. Otherwise it becomes the butt of a Mark Twain one-liner.
February 12th, 20106:18 pm
I guess there is a couple other facebook pages with that business name. My thumbnail logo is black with PP in white letters.
February 12th, 20106:21 pm
Unlike nolie with sample sizes, Escobar proved his value last year in these situations, regardless of size
which does not guarantee it will continue this year. If it ain’t a big enough sample it’s just hot air to anyone who knows stats. and Diaz’s leadoff at bats are too small to be meaningful too. if you are gonna use them you should make sense instead of fooling yourself that the mean anything to anybody else
February 12th, 20106:23 pm
Hope none of you are flying Delta in or out of Atlanta today, tonight, or tomorrow morning. Should say, I hope none of you were planning to. They’ve cancelled the bulk of those flights.
facebook? nobody uses Facebook anymore….it’s too crowded
February 12th, 20106:27 pm
At what point does the sample size become large enough to justify an up or down on a players batting order slot. As I stated, when leading off an inning McLouth was only slightly better with 593 AB (quite a large sample) .245 BA and .315 OBP – not real strong in 600 at bats coupled with the 240 leading off a game, that’s over 800 at bats and these additional 240 at bats further weaken his BA and OBP. I don’t think the Braves engage Damon at all if they are as confident as you are in McLouth’s ability to reach base consistently.
nolie, I understand the sample size and what not. But in the end, I’m not looking for a 10 year career as a leadoff hitter with Diaz or Escobar (or McLouth for that matter). Isn’t a 162 game season that you’re trying to catch lightning in a bottle and make the playoffs, a pretty small sample size?
I mean, if Diaz happens to work as a leadoff hitter for one season and never replicates it again…. who cares?
Kelly Johnson had ZERO track record of being a leadoff hitter too. Was a #3 hitter if I remember correctly. But there he was. Two opening days as the leadoff hitter. If he got a shot, shouldn’t others as well?
February 12th, 20106:28 pm
without getting in a … ahem …. measuring contest, let me tell you about a drive to the store the other day. Went to my local super-chain to pick up bread, milk and such. Lines were full. Not uncommon for a Tuesday at 7. Not even the 11 inches of snow on the ground kept most of us from doing our needed weekly shopping. We were half-way to our eventual final count (at least for that night, we got 10 more inches Wednesday). We’re supposed to get 10 more on Monday.
Got a rule around here that you have to keep the sidewalks clear for the kids and their daily walk to school, or you will be fined by the city. After 4 hours with a snow-blower (some of you may not know they exist …. think lawnmower, but shoots snow 5 feet instead of grass parts) five people and four shovels (gotta have at least two metal ones for the ice at the bottom), we now have a five foot high tunnel in front of my house. Don’t be reckless or anything with your “snow storm”, but come back down to reality, and enjoy the snow. That’s something we “miserable” northerners (been up here for 15 years now, guess I can’t claim southern residence anymore) rarely do anymore.
Altoona, PA – 32 inches of snow since Tuesday;getting 10 more Monday – They are calling it a mild winter in most area newspapers.
February 12th, 20106:30 pm
Ive got a website too nolie. But it’s more difficult to nagigate around. Mainly have it for PDF files of my order forms and brochures.
I’ll try and link it again. But if it doesn’t show up, then I might have to put it in code or something. LOL
February 12th, 20106:33 pm
Wow. It worked. Like I said. The facebook page is cooler (more and newer photos – because I can control it and update it), and easier to navigate. But…. it is facebook.
It does not matter a hill of beans that whomever the Braves might sign. As long as they have the most abolute worst excuse of a manager in the history of the game of baseball they will not be competing for any post season titles. Shucks, an empty paper sack could outmanage Cox.
Gil In Mechanicsville
February 12th, 20106:39 pm
Nice work Nate…
February 12th, 20106:40 pm
BabyGoatEater, I was wondering how JoePa stayed around so long. They freeze him after the bowl game, don’t they?
Damn.. Robert is back…
February 12th, 20106:42 pm
N8,great stuff buddy.
February 12th, 20106:43 pm
N8 – Are you the redhead on the bottom right?
February 12th, 20106:44 pm
I was referring to leading off a game at bats. 230 some is too small. hell Chipper hit 248 in 500+ at bats a few years ago, meant nothing. The 590 is more meaningful, but he has hit 259/328 with no outs in an inning. I’m not saying he is as good as Damon WAS, I’ve said all along that the difference isn’t worth more than 4-5 mill and not worth 2 years in the current Braves situation. .
February 12th, 20106:47 pm
The Damon deal may be a dumb one but it does point out one thing – The Tigers have a single owner, who cares about his teams ( Tigers and Red Wings) and cares about his city. We used to have that here with Ted T. However we now have a out of town corporation as an ownership. Dumb ownership who do not care about the product but about profit. Detroit actually has the better set up even if wrong about Damon. At least their owner will get involved and spend when he thinks it helps the team. Come on Ted, buy em back!
February 12th, 20106:52 pm
OK. I don’t care who bats leadoff as long as their OBP is .375 – .385 If we have a guy that can do that, with this lineup we will lead the NL in runs scored and win 98 games. People will think I’m nuts for making this statement. If we don’t have this guy we’ll win 94.
February 12th, 20106:53 pm
good stuff N8 . I liked the saturated red apples against the desaturated baby.
I used shoot a lot, mostly just personal, but I did get a lot of gigs shooting pictures of Appaloosa horses for sale and stallions standing at stud. Long time ago though. My equipment burned up after my divorce and I never replaced most of it.
do any scenic work at all? I had an ex-girlfriend who just recently passed away who was in the business for years. She was so busy with weddings and family pics she didn’t get to shoot as much of what she really loved.
Thanx for the link. I enjoyed it.
February 12th, 20106:54 pm
Here are some of my best snow photos from today:
February 12th, 20106:55 pm
I don’t care who bats leadoff as long as their OBP is .375 – .385 If we have a guy that can do that, with this lineup we will lead the NL in runs scored and win 98 games. People will think I’m nuts for making this statement. If we don’t have this guy we’ll win 94. Thick
I’m not positive but I think I remember that Damon’s OBP away from NY last season was only about 350. Too small a SS or age beginning to take its toll? No way to really know
February 12th, 20106:58 pm
not the Atlanta scenes I remember most McFann with all that ice. Thanx for the link.
I’ll make another nutty statement. I think a healthy Schafer puts up a .375 OBP season if given the chance.
February 12th, 20106:59 pm
You’re welcome, nolie! Yeah, I definitely wasn’t expecting this much snow…and it’s still coming down.
February 12th, 20107:04 pm
** Jon Heyman of SI.com says via Twitter that it looks like the Damon sweepstakes will come down to the White Sox and Tigers. He says the Braves don’t appear to have the money to bid.**
Thats is new to me……..isnt it for you guys?
February 12th, 20107:05 pm
not too nutty. no way to know, he could after he settles in, but I gotta admit that I am not yet completely sold on how well he will hit. I’m thinking more like another Nate, but hoping for better.
February 12th, 20107:06 pm
I was a young, new fan when Jim Rice and Freddy Lynn, 2 rookies took the Red Sox to the WS in 1975. I’d love to see Schafer and Heyward do that for us.
February 12th, 20107:07 pm
ESPN reports that the Lugers are hitting 90 mph on the course the kid was killed on today. Thats one ot those small one man sleds they ride lying on their backs. WOW!
February 12th, 20107:12 pm
I know Lynn and Rice both hit 20 and drove in over 100, but I think Schafer gets on base more than a few times with speed alone and plays a great CF. As for Heyward, 25 – 25 guy with 100 RBI and very solid defender in RF. McLouth, 25 – 25 guy with 90 RBI and very solid defender in LF. Wouldn’t that be a dream?
February 12th, 20107:16 pm
Was that senior with the “TOOL” background done with a green screen?
February 12th, 20107:17 pm
I was a young, new fan when Jim Rice and Freddy Lynn, 2 rookies took the Red Sox to the WS in 1975. I’d love to see Schafer and Heyward do that for us. THICK
that would be cool. I just don’t think there is much possibility at all that Schafer will start the year in Atlanta unless someone gets injured.
Heyward I’m not so sure of. There was a time that I thought it highly unlikely, but if they don’t add someone like Damon and he has a decent spring I think it might happen. A good thing to look forward to watching develop anyway.
February 12th, 20107:19 pm
as big as Hey is getting, I’m not sure what his SB numbers will be like, but I agree, I have hoped for a McLouth/Schafer/Heyward OF. Sure would be a good defensive group.
I think that while some sample sizes may be small, sometimes it may be all you have to go off of. However, if a small sample size is helping you lean toward a 5 million dollar decision then it’s not worth it.
February 12th, 20107:20 pm
TOYOTA did another recall! This time on TACOMA trucks.
February 12th, 20107:22 pm
Are you the redhead on the bottom right? jeffrey d
now that was just plain mean jeffrey
February 12th, 20107:23 pm
The Red Sox were 84 – 78 in 1974 and these 2 were unproven. The magic of Baseball and the wonder of possibilities. Man I Love This Game. 35 years ago and you don’t question why the older fans talk about the way the game used to be.
February 12th, 20107:24 pm
I think that while some sample sizes may be small, sometimes it may be all you have to go off of joe r
that’s true joe, you just have to be aware that the reliability of your predictions will be lower. Doesn’t mean you won’t be right, but a bigger odds that you may be wrong.
Chuck James can Potentially be Solid until the 6th again!!!
February 12th, 20107:25 pm
That kid at the bottom right of the front page of your website is clutch.
Oh boy, now Jermaine Dye is considering retirement. Do players consider that a threat to teams?
That was a different era and a different Collective Bargaining Agreement.
Both Rice and Lynn played full seasons in AAA Pawtucket in 1974 with Rice being called up in Aug and Lynn in Sept.
Jim Rice 1974
337 BA .391OBP .579SLG .971OPS
117 games AAA Pawtucket
Aug call up to Red Sox
Fred Lynn 1974
282BA .368OBP .489 SLG .857OPS
124 games in AAA Pawtucket
Sept call up to Red Sox
That’s how you prepare players for MLB
February 12th, 20107:27 pm
PS – Very good work…
February 12th, 20107:32 pm
The death of that luger is just awful. The video and still-frames are just…. whew.
February 12th, 20107:33 pm
Thanx for the “Sentimental Hygiene”.
February 12th, 20107:36 pm
You brought it up Thick. For about the 73rd time.
February 12th, 20107:39 pm
I was sincere. To my knowledge I made 3 post reagrding the subject of Lynn and Rice. But I do apologize if they offended your sensibilities.
February 12th, 20107:42 pm
Try going back and see how many times you’ve said the same thing about McLouth, Schafer and Heyward the last two days.
February 12th, 20107:50 pm
That last paragraph, on DOB’s blog, where Tom Glavine talked about what Bobby Cox has meant to him, over the years, was great stuff.
With this being Bobby’s last year, it almost brought a tear to my eye.
February 12th, 20107:58 pm
Can any of you snowbirds tell me if you lose your signal on direct tv if snow is coming down pretty good….im familiar with thunderstorms, but the snow is a novelty to me.
February 12th, 20108:01 pm
It would have to be really heavy snow unless the person that installed your dish did not install it to get the best signal. They can set it up at around 70% or so and it will give you a perfect signal…but once bad weather hits and it drops below around 55%, it will start to go out.
February 12th, 20108:02 pm
so what you are saying DOB is people get to see their luggage for a little longer due to the snow
February 12th, 20108:05 pm
The longer it takes, I think Damon might end up being the one saying where he goes instead of Boras being the driving force. If he truly wants to be in ATL, this delay could be a result of that.
Well i never put much thought into how it was installed…It only goes out during heavy rainstorms. Just wondered if i needed to clean the snow off the dish?
I wanna watch the opening ceremonies damit.
Tom O – you Cox apologists make my blood boil…
February 12th, 20108:07 pm
Cleaning off the dish is a good idea. The signal does need to bounce off the dish and into the LNB. In fact, you can spray some PAM or something on it so that stuff won’t stick to it as easily. (sounds stupid, but, hey….)
February 12th, 20108:09 pm
If you can get at your dish, you can always clean it off, if needed. Just be careful not to move the dish (be gentle).
You can also check the signal out (the strength), on your tv.
Thanks Heath…Id better do it before I drink too much Beer…lol
Macon Braves (RIP)
February 12th, 20108:10 pm
Bravissimo—There is probably snow built up on your dish. Just have to wipe it off. I’ve had to go out twice today and do it with mine today because of the snow building up on it.
Tom O’Hawke -
The problem with checking the signal on yout tv…it is not accurate (at least not with the DirecTv boxes). It might say 85%, for example, but really only be 60%. (I used to install DirecTv.)
February 12th, 20108:12 pm
I knew bloggers like Robert, No More Bobby, Don and you, would object to my post.
February 12th, 20108:13 pm
Thanks guys…wiping the snow off worked!…you guys are priceless!
Braves win! Braves win!
I did not know that. (It’s getting so you can’t trust anyone!)
February 12th, 20108:15 pm
The DirecTV and Dish guys get paid by the dish and the box, not by the hour….so, speed is of the essence. As soon as they’ve got signal…bam…next! Especially since they will get paid to come back out on teh service call…
Don’t forget YAACA…
February 12th, 20108:16 pm
Don’t forget the PAM!
February 12th, 20108:18 pm
McFann – I was at that Publix…I could have been right in front of you and we never would’ve known
You got a spot online to post your music for when I get my iPhone next week?
February 12th, 20108:20 pm
How come the strength you can monitor, on the tv, isn’t accurate?
I have to hear that Shore Leave song DOB. Thats the first time I ever really read the lyrics at the bottom of the blog. I like it.
February 12th, 20108:21 pm
Are you getting a 3G or 3GS?
February 12th, 20108:22 pm
The box manufacturer.
February 12th, 20108:23 pm
Don’t let them talk you into screen protectors. The screen is practically scratch proof.
February 12th, 20108:24 pm
why would Damon really want to be in ATL? he’s not coming here unless the Braves offer the highest $$ figures
PAM..lol…the dish is easy to get to. If it does it again ill give it a shot. This is much better than getting info from directtv.com.
DOB’s multi-purpose blog! If I was in ATL Id buy DOB dinner and drinks at community q.
February 12th, 20108:26 pm
32 GB.. sweet. You going to be putting a lot of music on it?
nevermind….i see your reason now. By the way, buying from ATT or Best Buy is over-priced anyway. My sister, her husband and my mom have had the phones for a couple years now… they get all their iwhatever accessories from here….
WAAAAAAY cheaper and the same stuff.
Steve from OH
February 12th, 20108:27 pm
N8–impressive work with the photos, my man.
February 12th, 20108:28 pm
I would like to put a lot…depends on where all I can get some free tunes
February 12th, 20108:29 pm
By, “The box manufacturer, I assume that means that they don’t want the customer to be able to adjust their dish, too well?
Hi, cabravesfan, if you’re out there somewhere. (You almost have to be out there, somewhere, huh?)
For most accessories, yes. Just don’t buy a generic car charger or home charger. The company can tell and if the charger is not factory standards it voids the warranty.
February 12th, 20108:31 pm
I don’t it’s that…just sucks.
February 12th, 20108:32 pm
You tell em Tom O’H @ 7:50.
February 12th, 20108:34 pm
*Let me rephrase that. The company can tell if you use a generic charger because it expands the battery.
Soph – exactly what I was thinking – liked the snow pictures
February 12th, 20108:35 pm
Hey How are things in NY? Not too snowy I hope (Did I mention it’s supposed to be 75 here on Sunday?)
February 12th, 20108:36 pm
Really? Too funny! That’d be hilarious if we were right next to each other…were you carrying a reddish-pink bat?
February 12th, 20108:37 pm
22 degrees but no snow on Rochester, NY
February 12th, 20108:40 pm
I’ve not heard that before…what is that?
February 12th, 20108:42 pm
What is what?
February 12th, 20108:43 pm
No, I don’t usually walk around with a pink bat
I like how NBC is going with the Pirates of the Caribbean theme for their Olympic coverage
February 12th, 20108:45 pm
Hey How are things in NY? Not too snowy I hope
cabravesfan, we’ve only received a little over 20 inches, for the whole season! That’s about half of the normal, and less than half of last year. Considering a lot more has fallen, in one storm, much further south of here, makes this a weird planet.
(Did I mention it’s supposed to be 75 here on Sunday?)
I’m glad to hear that you guys left Seattle, and have moved back to LA.
February 12th, 20108:47 pm
expanding a battery and why does it happen with car chargers.
Not that there’s anything wrong with that.
February 12th, 20108:51 pm
It happens with car chargers that are not made to factory made standards for your cell phone. What happens is too much voltage is sent into the phone to charge the battery (which causes it to get very hot) and the battery expands because of the heat exchange. If you take it into the shop under warranty, they’ll take out your battery. If it expands from using a charger that was not to factory made standards then your warranty is voided.
February 12th, 20108:53 pm
February 12th, 20108:55 pm
#22 Cornell 20-3 (6-0) going down big to Penn 3-15 (2-2)
Another reason we will probably never see another undefeated season.
February 12th, 20109:00 pm
Time to watch the opening ceremonies… I love the Olympics (I’m a dork, I know… but hey, I love ‘em.)
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