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© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
4,693 comments Add your comment
Tom O'Hawke
January 16th, 2010
3:11 am
“Tom O – I thought I changed names – damn!” (12:23)
—- Venice Jim , (I know you’ll see this eventually)
Don’t worry about it. I have the same problem with my buddy’s kid (The Real Bobby, aka T.R.B. or TRB). If my buddy decides to contribute to the blog, then I have a third!.
“I am and idiot…” (12:23)
—– Venice Jim
NOW, you should worry.
nolie
January 16th, 2010
3:11 am
I understand equations guy, I do have a Masters in Psych which requires a good bit of stat, but I don’t claim to be an expert at it. Where is the 1.82 from?
uga-brave
January 16th, 2010
3:11 am
nate is the key. gotta hunch he will rake.
nolie
January 16th, 2010
3:16 am
UGA a 20-20 guy who gets on base 35+% of the time is an asset in CF no doubt.
Braves_Fan_RSD
January 16th, 2010
3:16 am
1.82 is from the xW-L formula from mlb.com “Expected won-loss record based on runs scored and runs allowed, using this formula: RS^1.82/((RS^1.82)+(RA^1.82))”
I just tweaked it a little more to allow for projections like the number 56 is the average number of unearned runs given up by ML teams each season over the last 3 seasons. I also based the UZR/150 based on the actual games played then had to multiply it by -1 so that it added to the runs given up.
and I wasn’t questioning your knowledge of stats but more or less my gibberish way of simplifying things lol
Tom O'Hawke
January 16th, 2010
3:18 am
nolie its very basic accounting for runs+ basically the number of runs produced or saved in comparison to runs given up
((RS^1.82)/((RS^1.82)+((RA+56+(UZR/150*-1))^1.82)))*162
if that makes any sense to you lol
RSD, not only does it make sense, to me, I can also correct it! You, really, should have a comma, after nolie.
Braves_Fan_RSD
January 16th, 2010
3:18 am
the reason I had to get the avg unearned runs is because Bill james only projects innings pitched and ERA not total runs given up by a pitcher so unearned runs were unaccounted for when I took ERA and innings pitched to project earned runs given up.
Braves_Fan_RSD
January 16th, 2010
3:19 am
lmao Tom O’Hawke way to stay alert!
P. Bull Terrier
January 16th, 2010
3:21 am
Maddox is 1st ballot – no question. Glavine should be 1st ballot, but won’t be because there will be enough voters who don’t want to elect two Braves pitchers at the same time. In Atlanta, we’d love to see that happen, but in the rest of the country, the same kind of dumb logic that will keep Maddox from getting 100% of the vote will keep Glavine waiting for an extra year.
I could see it working out like this:
2013 – Maddox in, Glavine a few votes short.
2014 – Smoltz is eligible and sneaks in on the 1st ballot, Glavine loses a few votes from last year.
2015 – Not wanting to make it 3 Braves in a row, voters keep Glavine out again.
2016 – Voters finally throw open the gates to the cheaters and steroid boys. Headed to the Hall, Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, and even Rose. Sorry no room for Glavine in this crowd.
2017 – In a quiet year, Glavine finally gets what he deserved in 2013.
Braves_Fan_RSD
January 16th, 2010
3:23 am
nolie anyway to improve this formula I am all ears i tweak it anytime I see something that can improve it I think this is draft 13 lol
nolie
January 16th, 2010
3:24 am
thanx for the explanation my man. I gotta look into that original formula I guess. I was way more into stats than the average scout, but I gotta admit that my background also makes me somewhat skeptical of the advanced ones that purport to determine things like team W/L records since there are so many unforeseen possibilities and even the foreseeable ones have so many possible variations.
nolie
January 16th, 2010
3:27 am
P Bull not so sure Smoltz gets in on first ballot.
nolie
January 16th, 2010
3:28 am
I think maybe we need to apply Chaos Theory to it all.
Braves_Fan_RSD
January 16th, 2010
3:31 am
I think maybe we need to apply Chaos Theory to it all.
If you know how to apply it and would feel fine in doing it I could email you my spreadsheet with the stats and formulas.
nolie
January 16th, 2010
3:32 am
OK i am doing a BAS again, talking to myself. Time to go do something constructive I guess.
nolie
January 16th, 2010
3:34 am
no I don’t know how to apply it, I was just being facetious. I just think it is pretty chaotic with all the many possibilities. Maybe Braveheart knows how.
Braves_Fan_RSD
January 16th, 2010
3:35 am
oh ok lol ive never researched Chaos Theory so I wouldn’t know where to start
N8
January 16th, 2010
3:36 am
From the other blog:
“Now I see why N8 gets so darn pessimistic in the summer. He’s so overly optimistic during the offseason, there’s no way they’ll ever measure up.” Braveheart
I don’t think I’m being that optimistic about this team. I’m simply asking for the lineup to be average. EVERYBODY in the lineup, including Chipper and Glaus. If that happens, and this team has good health, things will work out well.
My main gripes during the season, have more to do with Bobby and some of his decisions. Good players can have down years. It’s up to the manager to not play favorites, and put the team in the best situation to win games. If that means getting a struggling Chipper Jones out of the 3-hole for a few weeks, then so be it.
If Chipper starts 2010 the way he ended 2009, and Cox leaves him there, I can tell you right now, I’ll bitch about it. As should you. If a guy in the bullpen continues to get lit up night after night, he should NOT be the first option (or an option at all).
Not on this team. Not with this budget. When the team was stacked, and no team in the NL East could keep up, Cox had the luxury of sitting on his hands letting things work themselves out. This team doesn’t have that luxury. The hot guys need to play, the cold guys need to sit, or at the very least, be dropped in the order.
So yeah. If Glaus is clearly not healthy and Freeman is tearing up minor league pitching, I’d expect him to get the call. Or give Crash Jones some AB’s. Perhaps Hinske. If KK struggles out of the gate again, Medlen should get a shot (provided he’s pitching alright).
Case in point, my gripe about Jeffy stinking it up had less to do with Jeff and his ability, than it had to do with Wren and Bobby waiting until they did, to do something about it.
I’m just curious how things could have been different last year, had Bobby had the balls to make some ballsy moves earlier in the year, rather than let his “guys” work it out. Clearly there could have been a handful more wins early in the year with some of those guys out of the lineup not killing rallies (KJ, Jeff etc…)
Optimistic? I don’t know about that. I just go into each year with certain expectations (that aren’t out of line, imo), for certain guys. When that doesn’t happen, sure. I’ll gripe with the best of them.
I expect smart baseball. Smart managing. And will always give guys recovering from injury the benefit of the doubt until it’s proved otherwise.
If Wagner, Glaus, Saito and McLouth claim to be healthy going into the year, and the Braves medical staff deems them to be, who am I to say they aren’t?
If Glaus and Chipper are healthy in 2010, I expect 20-25 HR from each and an OPS in the ballpark of .900 from them. Is that to much to ask from a former HR leader, and arguably one of the greatest switch-hitters in MLB history?
At some point, Yunel needs to take the next step. Why not 2010? If not, what he provided in 2009 will be just fine.
Prado might not ever be a 20 HR guy, but he should be a 50-60 XBH guy over a full season, and play adequate defense at 2B. He appears to have a better approach than KJ did/does. So why shouldn’t I expect his numbers last year to carry over in 2010 over a full season?
Melky and Diaz (provided Damon isn’t signed), should provide AT LEAST what Loaf provided, while giving us better defense, for sure when Melky is in there.
McLouth is what he is. He’s a guy that if he plays around 150 games will have 20-25 HR, a .265ish average, and score around a 100 runs with 20+ SB, while playing above average defense in CF.
Heyward? Who knows? Could be Schaferish. Could be like Francoeur when he first came up. Either way, from all accounts, he WILL play excellent defense, run the bases well, and give the team some much needed speed overall.
Wagner? If healthy, he’ll be as reliable (if not more than) either Soriano or Gonzo was out there. If not healthy, Saito can step in nicely (provided he’s healthy and not over-used).
Rotation? I think Hudson has a monster season. This might be the only spot where I’m being silly with optimism. But if healthy, I expect him to provide us with similar results that Vazquez gave us, with perhaps a slightly higher ERA (3.50 or so). But quality starts, innings and the basic theory of giving the team a chance to win more often than not, seem likely.
Lowe? I think he’ll be fine. Maybe not. But it’s not like he completely sucked in 2009. Just might not be worth 15 million. But I also expect a motivated Derek Lowe in 2010.
KK? I think the guy that pitched very well from May to August as a starter, is what we’ll get. Stamina is his biggest issue. But face facts. He’ll be our 5th starter. Period.
JJJ. Dude gets so little credit. Both from Braves fans and national media. Bonified top of the rotation guy. What’s not to like?
Hanson. I expect some ups and downs as he has to adjust to hitters seeing him more often. But I don’t think 15 wins and a 3.50 ERA is too much to ask. With some rough outings mixed in with pure brilliance.
Like I said earlier today. We might improve as a team and drop off in the standings if the Mets and Phillies (even the Marlins with Josh getting locked up and none of their big guns traded away just yet), improve as well. I expect the Mets to show up.
But no question in my mind that if this team avoids big injuries in spring training, that we break camp in MUCH better shape than the team that broke camp in 2009.
THAT, I’m optimistic about.
Tom O'Hawke
January 16th, 2010
3:40 am
1.82 is from the xW-L formula from mlb.com “Expected won-loss record based on runs scored and runs allowed, using this formula: RS^1.82/((RS^1.82)+(RA^1.82))”
Braves_Fan_RSD , I’m not asking you to do anymore work, but based on this, I gotta believe when the Diamondbacks won their division, a few years back (2007?), that screwed this formula up, royally.
Tom O'Hawke
January 16th, 2010
3:43 am
I’m gonna die soon. Any chance anyone can paraphrase N8’s 3:36 post for me?
Braves_Fan_RSD
January 16th, 2010
3:45 am
Braves_Fan_RSD , I’m not asking you to do anymore work, but based on this, I gotta believe when the Diamondbacks won their division, a few years back (2007?), that screwed this formula up, royally.
Yeah they won 11 games more than expected one of the few outliers with this formula it is usually accurate to +/-5 games
Braves_Fan_RSD
January 16th, 2010
3:46 am
but Tom O’ Hawke mine is nowhere near that accurate cause it is based on what could happen and projections not what has already happened
nolie
January 16th, 2010
3:51 am
while playing above average defense in CF N8
just to be nitpicky, Nate is not an above average CFer. he lacks a bit of range.and his total fielding runs above average is negative.
nolie
January 16th, 2010
3:54 am
formula it is usually accurate to +/-5 games
not to be a smart a@@ which I sometimes wanna be, but to me +/- 5 games is an awful big spread, I do not see that as accurate enough to be reliable except after the fact.
Braves_Fan_RSD
January 16th, 2010
3:54 am
on a +/-5 games scale it is 92% accurate from all the data I could find
nolie
January 16th, 2010
3:55 am
I’m not asking you to do anymore work, but based on this, I gotta believe when the Diamondbacks won their division, a few years back (2007?), that screwed this formula up, royally. Tom
yeah that old Greek geek Pythagoras took one in the chops there.
Braves_Fan_RSD
January 16th, 2010
3:56 am
yes it is but its the best I have found so far lol
Braves_Fan_RSD
January 16th, 2010
3:57 am
Which i agree its not meant to say yes this is what will happen because
1. Every stat put into the formula is a projection
2. it is a pretty big spread but I have found nothing smaller as of yet which is why I keep tweaking it lol
Tom O'Hawke
January 16th, 2010
3:58 am
but Tom O’ Hawke mine is nowhere near that accurate cause it is based on what could happen and projections not what has already happened
Braves_Fan_RSD , it’s tough enough to find a numerical system that is accurate in hindsight, much less in foresight. The fun before the season starts, is making predictions. Some of us use head smarts, or heart smarts. A lot of times, it’s a combination of both. I like stats, along with the other two. You have the stats-department, down to a science. Yeah, they can always change, from hour to hour, but I think they’re more accurate in predicting, than anything else. (except for nolie’s aunt with the crystal ball)
nolie
January 16th, 2010
3:59 am
yeah but +/- 5 games makes a huge difference in a season. if it projects as say 90 wins that really translates to between 85 to 95 and even that is only 92% certain. I mean that is the difference between 1st and 3rd more or less. I’m really not trying to be difficult with you, just expressing the way I see it. the odds of a more useful +/- 2 games would be way lower I imagine.
Braves_Fan_RSD
January 16th, 2010
3:59 am
it is in very primitive stages right now lol VERY lol just was made for the fun of it but the more I tweak it the more I like it, even though the entire thing is projection based.
Braves_Fan_RSD
January 16th, 2010
4:01 am
yeah but +/- 5 games makes a huge difference in a season. if it projects as say 90 wins that really translates to between 85 to 95 and even that is only 92% certain. I mean that is the difference between 1st and 3rd more or less. I’m really not trying to be difficult with you, just expressing the way I see it. the odds of a more useful +/- 2 games would be way lower I imagine.
I totally agree but right now thats as accurate as I have found it but I keep working with it lol
nolie
January 16th, 2010
4:02 am
hey don’t get me wrong I am not hassling you about your formula in any way, just the concept of any formula with that much leeway puzzles me, whether it is yours or MLBs or Bill James. I’m really just trying to get a better feel for it.
N8
January 16th, 2010
4:02 am
OK nolie. Then let me rephrase. An outfield of Melky in LF, McLouth in CF, and Heyward in RF will be considerably better, and cover more range than an OF of Loaf in LF, McLouth in CF, and Diaz/Church was in RF, while we were winning a ton of games after the Church/Francoeur trade.
How’s that?
Tom O’Hawke, I’ll paraphrase for you…
I think the Braves will be a good team in 2010, with a chance to be better than the 2009 team. I think the team we will field on opening day 2010 will be significantly better from man 1 through man 25 than the team that started the 2009 campaign. While acknowledging that if we have any major injuries (Chipper, Glaus, Hudson, etc….) the team could struggle.
My 3:36 just detailed by position, what I expect and why I think it’s reasonable to expect decent production.
Braves_Fan_RSD
January 16th, 2010
4:04 am
not at all nolie I appreciate your input if we didn’t poke holes in everything nothing would advance
nolie
January 16th, 2010
4:06 am
I think they are better too Nate iffen they stay healthy, you know I just hafta get pedantic about details every so often. Good post really.
Braves_Fan_RSD
January 16th, 2010
4:15 am
Tom O’ Hawke been a pleasure as usual and nolie great to finally have a in-depth convo with you if either of you would like to discuss something please feel free to email @ shane@shanespcrepair.com (small business I own) but I have to get to bed lol been a pleasure guys!
Tom O'Hawke
January 16th, 2010
4:41 am
Tom O’Hawke, I’ll paraphrase for you…
Thanks, Nate, but I was only kidding. I actually read your post. I can speed-read. I took the Eveln Woode, uh… Ebelyn Wood, uhh … Evelyn Would, (damn it) …. I took a course!
I appreciate your optimism. I hope you’re right!
nolie
January 16th, 2010
4:42 am
nite Shane, nite Tom
Tom O'Hawke
January 16th, 2010
4:47 am
While acknowledging that if we have any major injuries (Chipper, Glaus, Hudson, etc….) the team could struggle.
Nate, is there a team that can’t say this?
Tom O’ Hawke been a pleasure as usual
Braves_Fan_RSD , you too, buddy. If I’m not writing, I’ll be reading.
N8
January 16th, 2010
4:50 am
nolie. I know. Just giving you crap. You know I appreciate your insight. You also know that I give it the old “eye test” when it comes to defense, as opposed to all the defensive stats. And while McLouth probably was not worthy of his GG a couple years back, I think he generally plays pretty decent out there.
Tom O’Hawke, I figured you did, and appreciate your sarcasm. But I like to show that every now and then, I can paraphrase my own posts. Call it a lesson in short-windedness. LOL. I wish I could be one of those one sentence posters. Just not in my nature, I guess.
Good night all. Done working for the evening and need to catch some much needed z’s.
N8
January 16th, 2010
4:58 am
“Nate, is there a team that can’t say this?” Tom O’Hawke
No, there isn’t. But after being accused of being a homer (how dareth anybody deprive me of my negativity?), earlier in the day, I almost feel obligated to have a disclamor acknowledging that this team could be in trouble if things don’t go perfectly.
To me, it depends on who the injuries would happen to. If it’s an outfielder, we’ve got the other half of the Diaz/Melky platoon that is surely capable of stepping in full time if needed, or even Schafer.
If it’s Prado, Infante could help. If it’s Chipper, Prado could move over. Same goes for Glaus. But if Glaus and Chipper are healthy and “their old selves”, Prado isn’t really capable of providing what they can at the top of their game. But he’s certainly capable of being an upgrade over KJ.
I suppose, since he’s arguably our best hitter, the most devistating injury of all would be McCann. Ross is a fine backup, but certainly not Mac if he had to play everyday.
Hinske fits in nice as a short-term replacement as well. We have depth. But the strength of that depth is in short bursts and in the ability to give the regulars regular rest. If Hinske or Infante are forced into everday action, that not only weakens the everyday lineup (as projected – perhaps it’s that it ends up that Hinske is a better option than Glaus if not healthy?), but it also weakens the bench.
Just not a wide margin for error, if you will. But yeah. If the Cardinals lose Pujols, they’re in trouble. But if the Yankees lose Tex…. not so much. Plenty of firepower to make up the difference for a short while.
That’s all I meant. See? I just can’t do the short posts.
NOW, I’m going to bed.
Tom O'Hawke
January 16th, 2010
4:59 am
Good night all. Done working for the evening and need to catch some much needed z’s.
—— N8
I couldn’t have said that better. I have surgery to perform at 8:00am. I told my staff, that this time, I would get more sleep and have less beers. If I pour out what’s remaining, and then fall asleep within 3 minutes, I’ll keep my promise.
Goodnight, nolie, N8 & Shane.
Mitchie-san
January 16th, 2010
7:40 am
Apparently the moderator or DOB is a KISS fan.
Robert
January 16th, 2010
7:43 am
OK David, I’ve done the math. Before the winter meetings Wren was looking to upgrade the offense and shed starting pitching. Braves fans were informed the team could not sign both Gonzo and Soriano nor could they afford LaRoche. A solid starting pitcher was traded to free up cap room and we received if’s and potential in return. It appears a little over 50 mil was dropped at season’s end. So far we have added around 30, including arb. Gonzo and Soriano will earn around 13 mil this year. The Braves will spend over 10 on 2 pitchers over 38 years of age as replacements. Combine the stats of the four from last year. Money well spent? 1B. LaRoche just signed for 4.5 mil with an option. You mean to tell me he would not have taken around the same to stay in Atl? We keep being told Freeman will be ready by 2011. That’s a lot to ask. The risk of signing Adam for 2 years and Freeman being ready by mid 11 would not have been a bad thing. I can’t understand this thought process. I think the worst thing we the fans are hearing is the lack of communication between management and the players. The Glavine situation. Lowe making his comments. It’s alarming talk coming from such a proud franchise. Bloggers can say the what if’s and the next years every day but what is real is in black and white. Rushing team transactions to make the headlines won’t improve this team. This team is fading from grace. Unless a creative GM is hired soon the damage will take years to correct. Wonder how will be picked to suceed Cox? Large hire needing careful consideration. Any bets Chipper walks at season’s end because he won’t be playing for Bobby anymore?
David O'Brien
January 16th, 2010
7:46 am
P. Bull Terrier: Regarding your 3:21 a.m. post, you really think it’ll take five tries to vote in a 305-game winner with two Cy Young Awards, five 20-win seasons, six top-three Cy Young finishes, and 10 All-Star selections?
No way. At least I can’t see that. I think he’s a first-ballot selection. And as for selecting two Braves pitchers in one year, as you suggest will be a problem for voters — I don’t really think it’ll be an issue. Besides, some voters will think of Maddux as a multi-team pitcher as much as they’ll think of him as a “Braves pitcher.”
But with these particular two pitchers, I don’t think it’ll be an issue anyway. Might even make it easier for some voters to put both of them down, a send them-into-the-Hall-together sort of thing. But again, you’re talking about a pair of 300-game winners, so it shouldn’t matter.
JasonInFL
January 16th, 2010
8:04 am
If Tom Glavine doesn’t get in on the first try, I will lose all hope in the current system.
dap01
January 16th, 2010
8:06 am
Johnny Damon would be great.
I want to have Glavine in a major decision making capacity for the Braves. He is a winner.
Same for Smoltz.
Mid Town Joe
January 16th, 2010
8:15 am
I just read most of this new bloggage backwards, and for some reason it made me think of the Seinfeld episode which started at the end and went in reverse.
Considering the many players who’ve been screwed with by the HOF voters, I will not be surprised if any of the Brave’s hurlers don’t make it on the 1st ballot. This would expose this farce of subjectivity.
Going to be a good day for the NFL. Great games today.
Braveheart
January 16th, 2010
8:30 am
No way Glavine doesn’t get in on the first try. Maddux and Glavine are first ballot guys. Smoltz likely ain’t a first ballot guy
njbraves
January 16th, 2010
9:19 am
Anyone who thinks Glavine won’t get in first ballot is crazy. 300 game winner, 2 Cy’s , and 5 20 win seasons!! Get a clue.
Eric from MO
January 16th, 2010
9:25 am
Nolie I was thinking the same thing as you at 3:57. 10 games is big difference. If you told me to pick a win total for each team and I had to be within 5 games, I dont think it would be that hard. You could probably guess 26 out of 30. Always a few suprises.
ugaaccountant
January 16th, 2010
9:40 am
I think Greg Maddux should go in unanimously and have one of the biggest displays in the entire building. He dominated his era in a way that no more than 5 or 10 players in history have done. There is no standard by which a voter could make a case against him.
Glavine and Smoltz are more your run of the mill inductees. Better than a Jim Rice, sure, but I can’t put them as more accomplished than Johnson, Clemens, or Pedro. All 5 will eventually get in, but I figure there will be some interesting votes when all of these guys are eligible around the same time period.
jay blaisdell
January 16th, 2010
9:41 am
New Topic: Whither Jordan Schafer this winter ? Re-habbing ? Resting ? Playing any Winter Ball ?
In Atlanta by mid-summer ? I know Bobby Cox loves him.
ugaaccountant
January 16th, 2010
9:51 am
“Tom O’Hawke
While acknowledging that if we have any major injuries (Chipper, Glaus, Hudson, etc….) the team could struggle.
Nate, is there a team that can’t say this? ”
Yes, there are a few teams that could say that.
Most high payroll teams could have 1 major injury and still be perfectly fine. Look how the Dodgers were when they lost Manny for several months they could plug in Juan Pierre in his lineup spot and be perfectly fine.
Or if they are a high payroll team they can trade for an overpriced replacement without giving up much from their farm system. The Braves couldn’t just take on a Magglio Ordonez type fill-in, but the Yankees would if they needed to.
Also a team like the Marlins or Rays or Rangers are so stacked in the minors that they just keep calling up players that adequately replace whatever they are losing. It’s been happening for them on an ongoing basis for a long time.
The Braves are most similar to the farm system teams. We could withstand an injury or 2 in the outfield or 1 starting pitcher or a couple of relievers. Our problem would be if there was an infield or catcher injury, that would result on us relying on a decent but well below average player in Infante/Ross/Hinske. Those are really good players for their salary, but they wouldn’t adequately fill the shoes of who they would be reaplacing.
TommyP
January 16th, 2010
10:00 am
Of course Maddux and Glavine get in on the first try and they’ll do it with 95%+ votes. Like DOB said, there’s also no chance either will be a unanimous selection. It’s pretty much the “Babe Ruth clause” that some writers refer to when voting in someone on a first ballot. “If Babe Ruth wasn’t unanimous, nobody should ever be a unanimous selection.” I believe Seaver set the record for highest % and then Ripken broke that. I think.
DOB: This might be old news to you now but I figured you (and many others on here that discussed the Tenn/Kiffin saga) might find interest in Lane Kiffin’s “pre-presser” at UT. Great stuff.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dbNBd4S8II
David O'Brien
January 16th, 2010
10:20 am
Jay Blaisdell: Schafer spent first part of winter with cast on, so winter ball was out. Couldn’t play, doctor’s orders. Got cast off in December and all’s going well, last I checked. I was planning to call him this week to get an update, but I’m pretty sure he’s already started hitting and should be ready to go for spring training.
David O'Brien
January 16th, 2010
10:22 am
Braveheart, njbrave, TommyP: Agree with you and others on Glavine — he’s first-ballot guy, and to me it’s obvious, too. He and Maddux go in together, and it’ll be quite a weekend in Cooperstown, with a whole lot of Braves fans I would hope.
JC form UT
January 16th, 2010
10:23 am
Sorry if missed it but is there any word on who has been invited to spring traing?
Also is the make up of the bullpen complete? could FW go after Kiko Calero, Ron Mahay or even bring Will Ohman back? Or will luis Valdez get a shot of making the team ?
David O'Brien
January 16th, 2010
10:27 am
TommyP, that’s first time I’ve seen that. That is hilarious. Great stuff.
reagan
January 16th, 2010
10:29 am
Uga-brave (inre you 2:28 post)……..don’t forget rod Hudspeth.
When Hank Aaron talks...people listen...
January 16th, 2010
10:29 am
AJC and DOB…
Back to being the best blog on BASEBALL…in Baseball…
Thanks…
The Hammer…
BELIEVE
Rock On......
January 16th, 2010
10:43 am
Hate to see what happened to LaRoche but I guess when you play the free agent game you don’t always win. I guess it is a hindsight thing but if the Braves had known they could have had LaRoche so cheap for 1 year with an option Glaus and his fear-of-the-unknown at 1st base would never have happened. I gonna give Glaus a great chance of being a big producer this year but I still would plant a horseshoe under 1st base. Seriously.
RSD….forget all the cyber-metrics stuff and go with the laymens Rule of 64 dude. You will be glad you did. Makes the game runs analysis much easier to digest.
Rule of “64″ figures like this, if a team scores 6+ runs they win 80% of the time, if they score less than 4 they lose about 60% of the time, if they score 2 or fewer they lose 80% of the time. Scoring 4-5 runs is a crap shoot depending on the bullpen etc. to eak out the victories in any given year. For instance last year toward the tail-end of the year I reviewed every game and teh number of runs scored and allowed and the Braves fared negative against the under 4 runs scored version of the “rule” even with the great pitching. They were a slight plus (I think it was 84% win rate when they scored 6+. You can’t use averages either like ERA or average runs scored. It has to be actual runs per game. Simply amazing how accurate over baseball history this stat is. If you have great pitching and bullpen the slogan should be “just score 4″, if great hitting and weaker pitching “get 6 with the sticks”.
Rock on…….bottom line is you will never beat the rule of 64 unless you score 4.
Braveheart
January 16th, 2010
10:44 am
It would have been cool if Ted, Cox, Schuerholz, Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Skip and Pete all could have gone in together. Those 8 were the defining figures of that run. Cooperstown wouldn’t know what hit them. Chipper will get in first ballot someday. It’s too bad Murphy and McGriff will likely fall short, and that Mazzone, Justice and Andruw sputtered out. Would be nice if the Hall would find more of a place to celebrate unsung front office types like Paul Snyder. It’s still way early, but maybe McCann becomes a HOFer someday.
jay blaisdell
January 16th, 2010
10:49 am
Whither Jordan Schafer this Winter ? Re-habbing ? Resting ? Playing any Winter Ball ? Up with the Braves by mid-summer ? I know Bobby Cox loves the kid.
Rock On......
January 16th, 2010
11:00 am
Enter your comments here
Rock On......
January 16th, 2010
11:00 am
damn I hate when I do that……
jim
January 16th, 2010
11:02 am
Which of the following did NOT make the Hall of fame on the first ballot?
Paul Molitor
Warren Spahn
Kirby Puckett
Joe DiMaggio
Jackie Robinson
Robin Roberts
Stan Musial
Steve from OH
January 16th, 2010
11:15 am
Did anyone see that the Yankees offered Montero straight-up for Roy Halladay? I mean, I think Montero is gonna be a star someday, but from Toronto’s perspective I don’t think you can justify doing a straight-up swap like that…
O.J.
January 16th, 2010
11:22 am
jay blaisdell, how many times are you going to ask that?
Poorbrave
January 16th, 2010
11:42 am
TommyP that was great on Kiffin Press meeting. What a joke…funny.
dogsbrekky
January 16th, 2010
11:50 am
Puckett ??
ugaaccountant
January 16th, 2010
11:54 am
Steve from OH – I didn’t know that offer was out there, and obviously the Jays did better by getting more quality prospects, 2 of whom were also stud variety like Montero. But
A) Montero is a higher rated prospect than anybody the Phillies or Seattle moved in the deal.
Many clubs simply have to be extremely budget concious this year.
B) It’s still a viable offer in today’s market. It’s crazy to see how the payroll outlooks of various teams have changed so much that guys who were discussed as 3yr/30mil guys a few months ago are now 1/5 guys. It’s making agents look like idiots these days, well moreso than normal
C) It’s nearly equivalent to us offering Heyward straight up for Halladay, as I’ve seen Montero as high as #4 on an overall prospect list, behind Strasburg->Heyward->Neftali Feliz. I certainly wouldn’t have been comfortable with the braves offering Heyward for Halladay, but the Yankees and Phillies obviously were capable of extending him long term.
wjones
January 16th, 2010
11:56 am
“(I should add, the only guy I personally saw have a season as dominant as the ones that Maddux produced for the Brave was Kevin Brown in 1996 with the Marlins, when the menacing Brown went 17-11 with a league-best 1.89 ERA, a league-high 16 batters hit by pitches, and a Maddux-ian 0.944 WHIP. God, Brown was nasty.)”
No way I disagree with your assessment of Brown that year, but I would like to point out one thing with the WHIP. The 16 hit batsmen aren’t used in calculating WHIP, as I understand, only hits and walks. That usually isn’t a big deal, but in a case like this, with so many HBP, Brown’s WHIP is a bit artificially low. Not to take anything away from the fact he was dominant, but a HBP has the same effect as a walk, as far as allowing baserunners.
Other random comments:
DiMaggio was the one who didn’t get in on the first ballot, but that is a little misleading. DiMaggio started getting votes BEFORE he was eligible, so officially he wasn’t voted in the first time, but WAS voted in once he had sat out five years. That is something that has never been widely mentioned over the years.
Smoltz has a great reputation as a big-game pitcher, and I see a lot of you put him above Glavine for HOF. But Glavine won almost 100 more games that Smoltz, and Smoltz’s injury history may cause him to miss first ballot status. This is no logical argument for not voting Glavine in on the first ballot, excepting scandal of some kind.
As far as Piazza is concerned, what basis would a person use to deny that he wasn’t one the best players of his time? Feelings? Memories? Instead, look up how he measured up in MVP votes, all-star selections, league leader boards, etc. He was always among the top players every year. Maybe the fact the the Dodgers and Mets were beaten out by other teams every year obscures memories, but he was a great hitter, no matter what position, and arguably the most dominent offensive catcher in the history of baseball. His throwing wasn’t great, but aside from that he was a well-respected catcher as far as calling a game and handling pitchers. Excepting any scandals, I can’t see an arguement for not voting him in first ballot.
China Grove
January 16th, 2010
12:00 pm
DOB,
Great music selection today. My newest ‘favourite’ song – from the lyrics to the musical arrangement, it’s just wonderful.
What are your thoughts on Joe Thurston? There’s a guy we seldom talk about on here. I would definitely like to know what your expectations are of him.
Mid Town Joe
January 16th, 2010
12:02 pm
Hot Prospect, Hotter Car:http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100115&content_id=7923278&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp
Redstick19
January 16th, 2010
12:06 pm
jay blaisdell: see DOB’s 10:20 a.m. post, take two aspirin, get a good night’s sleep and then proceed to ask the question again in the morning.
Redstick19
January 16th, 2010
12:16 pm
anyone on here think McCann could one day be a 30 home run kind of guy? While I usually consider him more of a contact-type hitter and don’t usually consider him a “power” guy, the dude quitely racks up the RBI and sneaks up on 20-25 homers each year. Thoughts on B-Mac reaching 30 homers?
jim
January 16th, 2010
12:17 pm
Puckett was a first ballot HOFer
C's
January 16th, 2010
12:19 pm
DiMaggio
Burdell
January 16th, 2010
12:20 pm
Puckett was a first rounder.
Robin Roberts and Joe DiMaggio didn’t make it on the first ballot. Roberts just fell short in the first year and made it on the second ballot. DiMaggio took 3 ballots because the writers were backlogged in the 1950’s (too many great names from the 20’s, 30’s were on the ballot).
Tom Waits wears Redwing boots
January 16th, 2010
12:20 pm
N8 @ 3:36-
Exactly. It may or may not work. So, I’m optimistic as well.
Bill M.
January 16th, 2010
12:26 pm
Schaefer was taking batting practice at Turner field this week. They had him on t.v.
jim
January 16th, 2010
12:32 pm
Burdell is right –
DiMaggio first became ellibible for the Hall in ‘53, but between his retirement and his first year of elligibility, the 5-year waiting period was instituted. DiMaggio and one other were grandfathered in under the old rules, but it took three ballots before he was elected.
Spahn’s elligibility was delayed 2 years because he continued to play minor league baseball after his last season in hopes of getting another chance to win those elusive 10 more games to reach the total of Masterson and Alexander. Even though he won 20 or more games 13 times and had more wins than anyone who has pitched since the 1920’s, he only received 83% of the vote.
Steve from OH
January 16th, 2010
12:32 pm
ugaaccoutant–didn’t say it was a bad deal at all, just saying that it didn’t make sense for the Jays. Their system isn’t deep and they needed a bit of quantity too, which I think they got. Now they’ve got a nice pitching prospect and hitting prospect to go along with Travis Snider. Definitely did better than getting just Montero, as much as I like him.
RemoW
January 16th, 2010
12:34 pm
I can’t imagine Glavine not going in on the first ballet. Sorry, 1 of 6 left handers to win 300 games. That is pretty rare air. Right up there with guys that 60 plus dingers in a season without a little boost.
jim
January 16th, 2010
12:36 pm
Number of guys with 60 or more HRs in a season without a little boost = 2
Tom Waits wears Redwing boots
January 16th, 2010
12:39 pm
Anyone think the Braves carry 3 catchers, maybe Sammons – rest McCann in the 8th and 9th of blowouts. Ross looks like a great defender.
Jeff Blauser
January 16th, 2010
12:40 pm
RemoW, I can see figure skating for Glavine, but not ballet.
China Grove
January 16th, 2010
12:42 pm
Tom Waits
I’m all for that. Ross can hit the ball hard too. Depends on what happens with Thurston and the like, I suppose.
Heyward
January 16th, 2010
12:44 pm
I don’t see any chance of Cox using 3 catchers
Heyward
January 16th, 2010
12:45 pm
Would you really want Sammons taking a roster spot?
Redstick19
January 16th, 2010
12:46 pm
okay, looks like unless I inlcude McCann’s name in a sentence including Hall of Fame, I’m not gonna get much chatter here. I get it. Time to go see if Chris Berman has yet to begin attempting to rhyme Drew Brees’ name with something windy. Man, I can’t wait for that guy to get busted fooling around with an intern and get canned.
Heyward
January 16th, 2010
12:48 pm
My favorite Chris Berman nickname for a player—-Albert winnie the Pujols.
Tom Waits wears Redwing boots
January 16th, 2010
12:48 pm
They seem pretty versatile on the bench with Infante, Hinske – both can play IF and OF, Glauss and Prado can play 1st and 3rd. Does it seem that unreasonable?
Heyward
January 16th, 2010
12:49 pm
I think it would mean one less pitcher Cox always likes to have 12 arms.
Heyward
January 16th, 2010
12:50 pm
And I’ll say it again you really want CLint “minor league” Sammons on your roster? More power to you Tom.
Tom Waits wears Redwing boots
January 16th, 2010
12:51 pm
Heyward-
Offensively, maybe not. But he did hit the ball pretyy well in Atlanta. Just thinking of ways to rest McCann’s knees since Norton (last years emergency C is gone) ha.
Heyward
January 16th, 2010
12:52 pm
Matt Diaz in the emergency catcher
Heyward
January 16th, 2010
12:52 pm
is not in