12:15 pm December 9, 2009, by David O'Brien
December 12th, 20097:13 pm
yes, the braves did say Bye-Bye to Johnson, as the omniscient Lentz proclaimed.
but he also claimed, throughout the season that the Braves would let Hudson go… and we all know how that one turned out.
He was right today, folks…but he’s no Nostradamus.
….it, like tie dye shirts, has not come back yet
However, THC is not required for mohawks.
jeffrey d – but none of the Braves’ one-run losses were in the playoffs…
True that. The pain and agony…
December 12th, 20097:14 pm
Lentz = NostraDumbaz
Swisher will cost waaaaay more than Cameron JJ
not so sure I agree with way more
December 12th, 20097:15 pm
African Safari–As a longer-term value play, I really like Lloyds Banking Group in the UK. It has a P/E of 6.30, P/B of 0.14.
It has taken a major hit because the British government strong-armed them into taking over another bank HBOS that had huge subprime exposure. While it will take them a little time to weather that, they will be the largest UK banker after they reemerge. (Some anti-monopoly concerns were overlooked to keep HBOS from collapsing.) They have historically been a very good dividend payer–again, after they reemerge from the current financial situation.
December 12th, 20097:16 pm
Thrillhouse44 – thanks – and, at least, it was probably the right call on the replay…
What do you think it will take do get Swisher here?
and Derek Lowe isn’t an acceptable answer
Andrew in PA
Dye hits more homers..but defense is alot worse
December 12th, 20097:17 pm
Ok, I think Montana is going to win. I love snow games.
I’d rather have Dye or Cameron then Swisher,and there free agents
I think Chipper really enjoyed his experience in LF and would probably be all for going back.
Advance man for Mr Lentz
The Boss has arrived… prepare for your beat down…
December 12th, 20097:18 pm
VJ, “probably” being the key word. Indisputable? I think not. But, all-in-all, a good game.
December 12th, 20097:19 pm
Probably not much more, not enough to compensate for the poor defense. Also, Dye plays in the Cell, a very HR friendly park, Cameron plays in Brewers Stadium (I don’t know the name) which is fairly neutral.
Big props to Frank Wren for wisely dumping Kelly Johnson and giving himself $3-4 mil more to improve the Braves offense.
Nothing else of significance is going to happen until either Derek Lowe is traded (how much of his contract the Braves will have to eat will determine what “tier” of free agent they go after to improve the team)……….or the Braves decide to trade Vazquez and get either prospects (freeing up another $11.5 mil to spend on improving the offense) or a good hitter that will give the Braves line-up some pop.
I have a feeling that once Lackey and Halladay’s situations are settled…then Lowe and the big time free agent hitters will be resolved.
Mike Cameron again? He doesn’t fit with McClouth in center. Not to mention the speed/power/average we need will not come from him. I just don’t get what everyone sees in Cameron… his career stats do not have any upside at this stage.
December 12th, 20097:23 pm
I feel that there is the possibility that the Braves are able to trade Derek Lowe and not have to eat too much of his contract……….then they could very well make a run at Matt Holliday. Holliday is 29 years old and would provide not only some much needed right handed power to the Braves line-up…….but also eventually replace Chipper Jones in a few years as the marque hitter in the Braves line-up.
Regardless of what Bobby Cox said at the Winter Meetings about not going after Holliday…….there is merit to the Braves making a serious run at Holliday, provided enough money is freed up by trading Lowe.
December 12th, 20097:24 pm
Don’t know really – are all these guys projected to require between $4 and $8 million per yr?
VJ, “probably” being the key word. Indisputable, I think not. All-in-all, a good game though.
December 12th, 20097:28 pm
My only concern with Cameron is his HR/AB rate has dropped from 08 to 09 and may drop in ‘10 to 25 ABs/HR. If he had 500 ABs, he’d only hit about 20 HRs. And with his poor average, he wouldn’t be a RBI guy.
Just something to think about
December 12th, 20097:29 pm
They are all going to be making in that range next year, Parker. We can probably nix DeRosa due to cost.
December 12th, 20097:30 pm
Three straight first downs (on three plays) for Appy State – impressive
December 12th, 20097:32 pm
Lentz, BS man, BS!!!! Just the other day you were arguing with everyone on this blog saying that there is no way the Braves trade Lowe without eating a huge chunk of his salary unless its to the Cubs for Bradley. Now you are saying you think there is a very good possibility the Braves can trade him WITHOUT eating much of his contract? Are you mental or something?
December 12th, 20097:33 pm
Out of Cameron, Dye and Nady, pick two JJ
that’s easy. Cameron and Nady. Dye is likely kaput too much risk. of course risk factor seems to be something that many posters take no account of at all. hey if they ever had a good year they will again if we get them
then they could very well make a run at Matt Holliday. Holliday is 29 years old and would provide not only some much needed right handed power to the Braves line-up
Freeing up Lowe’s contract won’t be enough. We’d need new owners. If Holliday sign for 6 years and 17M a year, that means we have to pay him 17M until 2016. When Tommy Hanson/Jair Jurrjens/Yunel Escobar/Jordon Schafer/Jason Heyward/Kris Medlen/Mike Minor/etc. will be hitting their arbitration periods. And back loading a deal only makes it worse. We can’t afford it, does that make sense?
December 12th, 20097:34 pm
Delgado, Atkins and Blalock could be added to give FA options in the range of $4-8M:
Who else is a realistic FA option/desire?
You never answered my question, what do you think it will take to get Swisher?
Braves WILL sign Xavier Nady and will NOT get in a bidding war for Holliday and Bay. I don’t know how much clearer I can say it.
My projected 2010 starting lineup on opening day:
Rivera (Lowe trade)
Now of course things can change fast but I have a hard time seeing Lowe in a trade where Wren doesn’t want to go after that bat in the deal. Rivera fits that scenario.
December 12th, 20097:35 pm
N8, yes that’s me
December 12th, 20097:37 pm
I agree with you on Dye, Nolie. What about choices of Delgado, LaRoche, Blalock at first and Nady and Cameron in the field?
We’re heading for a record 50 pages cool!
What A Game
The App State and Montana playoff game on ESPN is awsome!
What do you think it will take do get Swisher here? JJ
guess I misunderstood your post. I was just thinking in terms of salary and length. It’s a given that Swisher costs a player and Cameron doesn’t. Sorry
December 12th, 20097:38 pm
December 12th, 20097:39 pm
Zero degrees……snow…..App state inside the red zoine with 13 seconds to play and a chance to tie
Oh my. This is a great game.
December 12th, 20097:40 pm
I misunderstood your post.
1B – Johnson, Blalock, Delgado and LaRoche
OF – Byrd, Branyan, Nady, Cameron, and Swisher
Blalock and Nady would be my top slots.
Lew: “KC-I hear what you’re saying, but the offense isn’t what we changed it to by mid season any longer. LaRoche is no longer in the fold (and I’m thinking won’t be at all), Church is gone and McLouth can’t hit at The Ted.”
Lew, LaRoche (assuming he departs, which is not at all certain) is the only real subtraction from the end of last year. You don’t seriously think the Braves are going to miss Ryan Church’s offense, do you? As for Nate McLouth and his Turner Field performance in ‘09… I don’t see how that represents a change between ‘09 and ‘10, unless that change is that he performs better here (which I think will be the case… no place to go but up).
In regard to LaRoche, I’ll be surprised… no, SHOCKED if the Braves don’t either re-sign LaRoche and/or bring in someone of equal or great ability. So I’d bet money that this lineup will have every bit as much – or more – ability than last season’s second-half lineup.
I’m all for the Braves upgrading the offense! There is room for improvement, certainly, and that’s now the Braves only remaining focus this off-season. My point is simply that if the Braves start the season with only AS MUCH (not more) ability as they had in the lineup in the second half of last season, they’ll have a good offense in will likely finish in the top 5-6 in runs scored. That, coupled with the pitching, makes the Braves as legitimate a contender as anyone.
I’m all for improving this offense as much as possible! Just trying to point, once again, that this lineup isn’t as impotent as many make it out to be.
December 12th, 20097:41 pm
his career stats do not have any upside at this stage. Xalz
his career stats are a duplicate of McLouths and he has shown no slow down so far. A one year deal would be fine. Just not sure they can get him for just one year, Even an option might be ok if it were based on appearances etc. It’s not that he is great, but that most of the others have even more questions
December 12th, 20097:42 pm
Wow. App St was sooooo close.
Montana a winner……..great, entertaining game.
Let’s go Wildcats, next Friday – keep the CAA on top of the FCS!
December 12th, 20097:43 pm
Yep Soph….receiver probably shoula had that one. Oh well…..game worth watching….that’s for sure.
Damn, I missed it, what happened 24 to what?
Where are you??
December 12th, 20097:44 pm
misunderstood your post JJ
yeah well I misunderstood your FIRST!!!
December 12th, 20097:45 pm
Both Blalock and Nady could slot in at their other positions for rest or platoon, plus they have some youth with its potential.
yeah well I misunderstood your FIRST!!!
Everytime I see your name, I think your a chick…
December 12th, 20097:47 pm
Out of Cameron, Dye and Nady, pick two
As Nolie said Cameron and Nady. With Dye, I have a feeling that we would miss the good ole days when Garrett Anderson was a defensive wizzard.
not a Blalock fan. hits poorly away from Texas almost his entire career though he did improve last season. we just can’t know whether that would continue. Will all his warts I think Roachie is the best option being discussed. Might do better in a trade at some point.
December 12th, 20097:49 pm
Cameron would satisfy some of the need for speed and has less questions than Nady. I like Nady’s upside even with the risk. Blalock would give us more pop and could spell at third and cover first. Not sure what kind of deal Blalock is looking for as far as years though.
If you nix Swisher and due to low BA and DeRosa due to $, then there seems to be a growing feeling on this blog that we might target 2 of this group (and it seems all have expressed some interest in Atl):
And I have not seen much disagreement that we can afford 2 of them if we eat only 3M of Lowe.
-Current $89M payroll assuming some pay raises,
-2010 budget same as 09 – $96
-subtract $12M from Lowe
-spend $2-4M on 2 roster spots – some mix of backup SS, IB, 3B
-spend $15-17, maybe less, on 2 among that list of 4
All 4 have their individual negatives, outweighed by pluses. And it would not be awkward to sit any of them at times to get needed ABs for Infante, Diaz. And none would represent blocks to Heyward or Freeman. And none would need long term deals that limit good contract offers in 2011 and forward to our core – Vasquez, Hanson, Prado, JJ, McCann, Moylan, Heyward, FF, Esco, McClouth
December 12th, 20097:50 pm
regard to LaRoche, I’ll be surprised… no, SHOCKED if the Braves don’t either re-sign LaRoche and/or bring in someone of equal or great ability. KC
Roachie hit .957 while with the Braves last season. I can guarantee you that they are not gonna bring in a better hitter than that. even Adam himself likely won’t repeat that in the second half.
jeffrey d, on a whole, for the 2009 season, you’re absolutely right… pitching was not THE problem. However, for the first 2 months of the season, the bottom of the rotation was A problem.
Again, the bottom of the rotation started the season 3-10. If the Braves collect 4 or 5 more wins from the bottom of the rotation next year than they did last year, that could have a big impact on the season, don’t you think?
My point is simply that, eve if the Braves went into next season with the EXACT same roster with which they finished the ‘09 season… they would NOT be an 86 win team. No way (barring substantial injuries). They would almost certainly be a 90+ win team.
If they can UPGRADE from what we finished last season with… well, that would give the Braves the chance to have a truly terrific season. In any event, as NL rosters are currently constituted, the Braves would have to be favored, in my opinion, to play post-season baseball, one way or the other.
December 12th, 20097:51 pm
Oh, while everyone is here, what you “y’all” think of Jesse Chavez for Mike Morse?
December 12th, 20097:52 pm
Everytime I see your name, I think your a chick… JJ
yeah yeah. think of it as no lie then, since I am always right
I am a SemiNOLEs fan cause I did some post-grad work there, which is where nolie comes from really
December 12th, 20097:54 pm
I understand your concerns on Blalock, Nolie. His power holds at home and on the road pretty well careeer-wise.
December 12th, 20097:57 pm
Here is the Braves projected payroll for 2010, not including Derek Lowe:
Tim Hudson………………….$ 9 mil
Javier Vazquez…………….$11.5 mil
Kenshin Kawakami……….$ 6.67 mil
Jair Jurrjens…………………$ .65 mil (projected)
Tommy Hanson…………….$ .45 mil (projected)
Billy Wagner………………..$ 7.5 mil
Takashi Saito………………$ 3.2 mil
Peter Moylan……………….$ 1.5 mil (projected)
Eric O’Flaherty…………….$ .45 mil (projected)
Kris Medlen…………………$ .45 mil (projected)
Boone Logan………………$ .45 mil (projected)
Jesse Chavez………………$ .45 mil (projected)
Martin Prado……………….$ .60 mil (projected)
Yunel Escobar…………….$ .60 mil (projected)
Chipper Jones…………….$13 mil
Brian McCann…………….$ 5.67 mil
Nate McLouth……………..$ 5 mil
Matt Diaz……………………$ 2.55 mil
David Ross………………..$ 1.60 mil
Omar Infante………………$ 1.85 mil
5 starting pitchers ($28.27 mil), 7 relief pitchers ($14 mil), 6 position starters ($27.42 mil) and 2 bench players ($3.45 mil) equals 20 players whose salaries total $73.14 mil.
If the Braves are going to go into the 2010 regular season with a $95 mil payroll, then that leaves $22 mil left over to get a starting first baseman, either a left or right fielder (Matt Diaz will probably start at one of those positions), a back-up outfielder (Matt Diaz could end up being the back-up outfielder if the Braves sign a big bat and decide to start Jason Heyward in right field), a back-up infielder………and either a 13th reliever or another back-up infielder/outfielder.
The first baseman and starting outfielder will probably eat up a significant part of the remaining $22 mil. And lets not forget that the portion of Lowe’s contract that the Braves will have to eat (the yearly average) has to be subtracted from the $22 mil.
So knowing that, it is clear that Frank Wren is going to wait until either Lowe or Vazquez is traded so he will know how much money he has left over to fill the remaining spots on the roster.
December 12th, 20097:59 pm
Hollywood schafer with a beard? Hope he can stay warm because he sure didnt play that way for us last year.
nolie, well no… of course not. I’m not saying they’re going to bring someone in that’s going to perform better over 162 than LaRoche did in the final 2 months of the season. I mean over the course of a full season.
But just talking about the second half… we didn’t have LaRoche for that entire stretch of great baseball the Braves played, beginning June 28. We had him for about 2/3 of that stretch. So if we’re talking about the Braves 3 month run of great baseball, that includes one month with Kotchman at 1B.
And whatever bat we pick up this winter, I suspect the offense will only get better with the arrival and maturation of Jason Heyward, either to start the season or a couple months in.
December 12th, 20098:00 pm
O.J………dude, in my 7:23 pm posting……..I forgot to insert the word “if” in the Derek Lowe scenario. I meant to say “if the Braves can trade Lowe without having to eat too much of his contract…………..”. I didnt mean to say that I believe that it will happen.
December 12th, 20098:02 pm
Blalock has one year at full health since his ‘06 injury – last year. This will be his sophomore prime age year and I am looking for a career year out of him. Just saying his upside potential and multi-positional trait add a good bit to him for us.
December 12th, 20098:04 pm
nolie, i’m enjoying your perspectives of late. i’m with you on not wanting dye. name 2 you would pursue, please, out of nady, cameron, gomes, swisher, atkins, podsednik, delgado and de rosa. oh, and i did post grad work at fsu too.
DOB = 1938 Heisman winner???
You have aged well, my friend.
December 12th, 20098:08 pm
Don’t forget to add about 5 million from AAA
December 12th, 20098:23 pm
blog is dying
Jurrjens4NLCY………I dont understand your 8:08pm posting. What is AAA?
December 12th, 20098:25 pm
triple A baseball
Lentz- Nice post just a couple points of contention. Cots baseball contracts list Wagner’s salary at $6,750,000 and KK’s at $7,333,667 (due to the spreading of his signing bonus. I also think Boone Logan is due for a slightly larger contract due to his 1st year of Arb.
December 12th, 20098:26 pm
But we will still have around 19-22 million when/if we trade Lowe.
December 12th, 20098:27 pm
Andrew in PA…………..the blog is “dying” (as you said in your 8:23pm posting) because all the “Kelly Johnson jock sniffing man crushers” are licking their wounds.
They SO MUCH wanted to have the opportunity to rip me for being wrong. When I’m right about something, not a whip from side busters. However when I am wrong about something…….then all hell breaks lose.
I can guarantee you that if the Braves had offered Kelly Johnson salary arbitration….then the blog would be lighting up right now.
Sorry about W& M last night. I really thought when the TRIBE got to 13 it was in the bag. Should have known those sneaky “NOVA cats would get something going late.
December 12th, 20098:29 pm
Jurrjens4NLCY……the Minor League payroll obligations have no bearing on the MLB payroll. While the Braves own the Triple A team…….it is not factored in the team payroll.
Do you understand why we can’t afford Bay or Holliday?
December 12th, 20098:32 pm
That’s not true, to call up a AA player, you have to buy out their contract and give them league minimum.
Manny Acosta RP 413,000
Jo – Jo Reyes SP 400,000
Juan Abreu RP 400,000
Brian Barton OF 400,000
Diory HernandezINF 400,000
Brandon Jones OF 400,000
Gregor Blanco OF 400,000
James Parr SP 400,000
Jordon Schafer OF 400,000
Clint Sammons C 400,000
Jeff Ridgway RP 400,000
Todd Redman RP 400,000
Jesse Chavez RP 405,000
Thats about $5.21M
December 12th, 20098:34 pm
kelly johnson is trash ..why would a team like the braves waste 3 mill on a bench player..it makes no sense, whoever thinks it does should just go to bed
i didnt know that the AAA salaries count as well
December 12th, 20098:35 pm
Braves Lifer………………the Braves paid Kawakami’s salary bonus upfront when he signed the contract. There is a difference between what the contract “averages out to be”……..and what the Braves are on the hook for in 2010.
The figure I came across for Billy Wagner is $7.5 mil. As far as Boone Logan, I meant to put “$1.45 mil” instead of “.45 mil”. So the $73.14 mil payroll figure is instead $74.14 mil…….meaning that there would be $21 mil left over instead of $22 mil to fill out the roster……….if the 2010 payroll is $95 mil AND Derek Lowe is traded (minus what the yearly average of what they have to eat of his contract)
Too funny on blog politics, Lentz.
There is a bit of chatter on the MLB Braves boards about making a play for Gomes now that he is non-tendered. If he’s $2M and produces like last year he’s an affordable bench option the rationale goes, but how many OF’ers can we carry?
December 12th, 20098:36 pm
Since its getting dead anyone care to comment on the Johnny Damon situation since it may impact one of the names (Swisher) that gets brought up on here a lot. Yankees seem to be standing firm on a offer of 2yrs at $19M and Boras wants them to go at least 3 years at about $13M per. I tend to think that the Yanks have all the power in this situation now that they have Granderson. Any thoughts?
December 12th, 20098:39 pm
Jurrjens4NLCY…………the guys you listed in your 8:32pm posting do not get paid the MLB minimum UNLESS they are called up to the Majors.
I said that the Braves have 5 roster spots to fill out. If any of those guys make the team……then of course their salary is subtracted from the $21 mil that the Braves would have left over to fill out the roster.
If all those guys that you listed in that posted were to make the MLB roster, then of course they would count $5.21 mil against the Braves payroll. However most of them will spend a big part of the year in Triple A.
December 12th, 20098:40 pm
It’ll be a cold day in hell before Logan gets $1.45M
December 12th, 20098:41 pm
Paul Lentz- Billy Wagner’s contract- 1 year/$7M (2010), plus 2011 option; 10:$6.75M, 11: $6.5M club option ($0.25M buyout), 2011 option guaranteed with 50 games finished in 2010
I think the differences in KKs contract might be that your figure does not include all the incentives that we have given him i.e. “perks: interpreter, $25,000 moving expenses, housing and SUV during Spring Training, access to massage therapist, 8 round-trip business- or first-class airline tickets between Tokyo and Atlanta” (nice gig huh?)
December 12th, 20098:45 pm
richbrave – thanks – I never felt too comfortable – the defense picked a bad time to stop being the best rushing defense in I-AA..
December 12th, 20098:46 pm
“It’ll be a cold day in hell before Logan gets $1.45M”
I tend to agree. Initially I thought that the Jesse Chavez acquistion would lead to a non-tender of Logan but I guess I was wrong. Wouldn’t it be cheaper (almost $1M less) and close to as effective to bring up JoJo to take Logan’s role as 2nd long relief man behind Medlin?
December 12th, 20098:47 pm
Jurrjens4NLCY…………now that I think about it…Logan will probably get around $1.1 or $1.2 mil.
Also, I stand corrected concerning Wagner’s 2010 salary. It is $6.67 mil, instead of $7.5 mil.
So given the adjustments to both Logan’s projected 2010 salary AND the having to pay Wagner $750K less than I thought………..then the current 2010 payroll obligations (minus Derek Lowe of course) is around $73.14 mil. $22 mil (depending on how much the Braves have to eat of Lowe’s contract on a per year basis) to spend on filling out the 5 remaining spots on the roster………should give Frank Wren some flexibility and Braves fans some hope.
December 12th, 20098:48 pm
Braves Lifer–I agree that the Yankees have the power here. The Yankees now have Granderson, Cabrera, Gardner, and Swisher. They don’t have to bring Damon back. They have plenty of bats in the line-up without him. If they do agree on terms of Damon, my guess is that Cabrera or Gardner would be the first on the chopping block. I would like Swisher the most of them all, but either of the two former center fielders is the most likely to be shopped first.
December 12th, 20098:50 pm
All those guys have already been in the majors and thus get paid 400,000 even if they played in high a ball
December 12th, 20098:53 pm
I would be shocked to my very core if Logan got more than $800,000!
December 12th, 20098:54 pm
i would have let logan walk if hes gettin 1.5…chavez gets lefties out better than righties anyway..
Kevin McGlinchy was awesome
Jurrjens4NLCY……….your 8:50pm posting is wrong. Before a player is eligible for salary arbitration, the player has a split Major/Minor League contract. If they are on the MLB roster, they make close to the MLB minimum. However if they are in the minors, they make Minor League money.
Look around, you’ll see I’m right.
Moe Berg- Thats my thinking too. I am pretty surprised that the Yankees are even going as high as the 2yr 19M Abreu got from the Angels for Damon. Damon’s situation has the potential to leave Boras with a black eye. Imagine if the Yanks pull their offer and Damon’s value tumbles to were he has to accept a one year deal. I personally would love it…
December 12th, 20098:55 pm
and the winner is……booooooo ingram
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