Firing up the Hot Stove in chilly Indy

I’m copying my last two posts into one on the new blog. Fire away:

“You’re trading for 1 year of a 2-to-3-win player (Dunn)….”

Are you really, honestly, no bullsh!t telling me that there is a stat out there or a stat analysis system, that claims that a guy like Adam Dunn is only worth about 2-3 wins per year for a team that has no cleanup hitter, and plenty of pitching if they rid themselves of Derek Lowe’s contract?

Dunn hit 38 HR, slugged at a .529 pace with an OPS of .928 last year.

I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that he would have helped us win more games than 2 or 3 last year if inserted in our lineup.

Because, if a cleanup hitter with those numbers is only good for 2 or 3 wins, WTF is everybody so damn desperate about adding a cleanup hitter for?

Wren should pray to his god that Soriano AND Gonzalez accept arbitration, keep all 6 starting pitches and just pitch our way to the WS.

I’m not the biggest Dunn fan in the world. But I’m also not stupid enough to believe any stat that states he’s only “good” for 2 or 3 wins.

What about what he’d do for Chipper? What about making the lineup deeper with McCann and Escobar dropping lower in the order?

I love stats as much as the next guy, but I swear the morons that come up with these stat systems and theories have never actually watched the game before.

Just counting HR, our cleanup and 5th place hitters hit 43 HR last year. Mac had 21 HR (20 batting cleanup, 1 batting 5th).

Insert Dunn at cleanup and drop Mac to 5th. Assuming the stats remain the same, that gives us 59 HR in the 4th and 5th hole of the lineup.

Anybody out there honestly think with all the low scoring games last year that we choked away, that 16 more HR in the middle of our order are only good for 2 or 3 more wins?

Now on to OPS. Our cleanup hitters had a combined OPS of .808 last year, and the 5th place hitters had an OPS of .739.

If you put Dunn 4th (.928 OPS) and Mac 5th (.834) for the majority of those AB’s, I’ve got to believe that the results for the offense, change drastically.

Not to mention all the people blaming poor protection on Chipper’s bad year, his results would have been different, not?

Nolie, you’re a scout. Would Adam Dunn batting cleanup for the Braves in 2009 helped them win more than 3 games, in your opinion?

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Hey…. I was FIRST!!! Don’t know if that’s ever happened.

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DOB, I like your little comment under the picture of Soriano. Very true.

Just the thought of seeing “Braves land Gonzalez” makes you excited. After that Tex mess I doubt they’d do another blockbuster requiring so many good prospects to be traded. Never know though.

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a good late night blog DOB

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P.W. from the other blog:

“Well, he has a 6-win bat, but there are other things involved in production. Like fielding, where he’s a -2-3 win player, and baserunning, where he sucks, and position scarcity, and he plays a position with a very high replacement level.”

Oh, I get it and understand it. But I think it’s all relative to each specific team.

If you replace Tex on the Yankees roster with Dunn, he might be worth negative wins, when you factor in his defense and what not.

But we’re talking about a guy who in 2009 would have been signed INSTEAD OF Loaf. So, essentially, the defense and baserunning is a wash. And then what you’re left with is the offense.

Which is exactly what the Braves were lacking in the middle of their order.

I think saying Dunn would have only been worht 6 more wins had he been on the team instead of Loaf, is even an understatement.

For the 2009 Atlanta Braves (in hindsight of course), with Adam Dunn’s bat from the get go in LF, we go to the playoffs.

Of course, money wise it changes everything last year. Perhaps the McLouth deal doesn’t happen, more than likely the LaRoche deal doesn’t happen.

But with his (Dunn’s) bat in the middle of the order, perhaps those deals are never necessary? No way of knowing.

I hope this clarifies where I’m coming from.

As for 2010? I think trading Adam Dunn even up for Derek Lowe would be a steal.

It would rid us of 2 extra years (30 million dollars), and get us our bridge to Heyward and Freeman. While giving the Nats a proven veteran to anchor one of 5 spots in their rotation for the next 3 years.

This team doesn’t need Lowe, especially if Vazquez stays, and I’ve questioned whether we need either of them if the right bats are added, and the bullpen is fixe (which it appears to have been).

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Hey DOB, its 1:10 my time no news or Soriano. Safe to say we can now pursue a bat?

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Not terrible music at all. Sounds like a bar song that people karaoke to, but I can listen to that over rap any day.

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I’m hoping for a first day of the WM deal

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P.W., I saw it. Scroll up to 1:10 to see my response, if you haven’t already.

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And I’m still not sure trading Soriano is allowed by MLB rules until June 15th Steve

you can’t understand the difference between free agents and guys who accept arb? It was quoted out of the book that they are not the same. Free agents can’t be, but if a guy accepts arb he is never considered a free agent so it does not apply to him. It might be a challenge to get him traded, but it is legal.

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Thanks nolie. Well explained. Plus it sounds like you kind of, sort of agree with me. Which makes me like the response even more. LOL.

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N8: agreed, man. 2-3 wins is a ridiculous estimate.

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Go braves & saints

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nolie: nice job of breaking that down and articulating it.

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“It might be a challenge to get him traded, but it is legal.” nolie

I don’t really think it will/would be a challenge to trade him outright. But it might be a challenge to trade him for prospects that are equal in Wren’s mind to the value that those two picks would have been worth at some point.

But each step of the phase has to be taken into account as he goes. Wren assumed Soriano wasn’t going to accept arbitration, and thus Wren was salivating over the draft picks.

If Soriano does accept, he either has to accept that he accepted (LOL) and use him in the pen. Or unfortunately, take what he can get for him.

But wouldn’t it suck, if Soriano accepts, and we get zero draft picks for him upon trading him. Then if Gonzo is signed by a team who signs a higher rated Type A free agent, meaning we’d get a sandwhich and a second, along with losing our first for Wagner?

To go from the possibility of a week ago, of maybe capping out at two 1st and 3 sandwhich picks from Soriano, Gonzo and LaRoche, to basically having a no firsts in next year’s draft?

That’s why draft picks should be allowed to be traded.

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So, essentially, the defense and baserunning is a wash. And then what you’re left with is the offense.

Well, actually, Adam Dunn is phenomenally bad in the field and Loaf is only bad. For instance, Dunn’s 2009 UZR was -36.3. Loaf’s was -11.8. That’s actually a two win difference. (…By the way, holy sh!t, I can’t believe there is someone 2-wins worse than Garret Anderson in the field. That is amazing to me…)

Loaf was a +1 bat in 2009. -1 fielder, and -1 position.

Dunn was a +6 bat in 2009. -3.5 fielder, and -1 positional.

Loaf was a -1 win player in 2009. Dunn was a ~+1.5 win player in 2009.

Given that Dunn would’ve fixed the biggest systematic weakness of the team in 2009–the inability to hit for power–it’s fair to assume he’d be more than a +2.5 win upgrade over Garret Anderson. Especially given the Braves scoring and allowing tendencies (teams with low scoring and allowing tendencies disproportionately improve by adding offense, teams with high scoring and allowing tendencies disproportionately improve by adding defense/pitching).

The discussion I intended to engage was (not one that had anything to do with Loaf, but) the one regarding trading Lowe, Schafer, and $15 million for Adam Dunn, stating it was a lop-sided deal and the Braves shouldn’t do it. That doesn’t mean I don’t like Dunn or anything, I just wouldn’t make the deal. Purely in terms of value, the Braves give away far more than they receive. No matter how much I like Dunn, that’s a stupid trade.

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Loaf was a +1 bat in 2009. -1 fielder, and -1 position.

Dunn was a +6 bat in 2009. -3.5 fielder, and -1 positional.

Loaf was a -1 win player in 2009. Dunn was a ~+1.5 win player in 2009. PWH

only if you accept all the assumptions that are built into those systems. It’s a guideline, it ain’t God’s word. and it is almost never exactly right.It it could even be close we could forgo playing the games and just analyze each team and present trophies all in a few days. I like it better playing them all out.

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P.W., have you bothered taking all of the Braves players that were on the team last year for various amounts of time, and calculating their +/- win totals with the actual amount of wins (86) the Braves had last year, and see how it calculates?

I’m curious to see how accurate it is or isn’t. Or at least how accurate it was going into last year, and how the year turned out. I realize that that might take time, I also realize you might say screw off and don’t want to figure it out. But if you do calculate it out, let me know how it turns out.

I’m not entirely sure I understand what you’re talking about, but I think you mean taking all the Braves players win values (WAR, WARP, or whatever comprehensive win-value metric you want to use) and comparing them to the 2009 Braves actual win total?

I haven’t. I could probably accomplish that rather quickly using BPro’s stats page. The problem is, I’m really never clear on their assumption of replacement level. Everyone seems to have their own idea. Anywhere from .250-.330 winning percentage.

If I assume the replacement level is a .300 winning percentage and it’s actually a .270 winning percentage, this is a problem.

I’ll see what I can do.

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I could probably accomplish that rather quickly using BPro’s stats page. The problem is, I’m really never clear on their assumption of replacement level. Everyone seems to have their own idea. Anywhere from .250-.330 winning percentage. PWH

that is one ofthe main subjective problems that I was referring to. don’t get me wrong I find that stuff interesting and enjoy your posts

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only if you accept all the assumptions that are built into those systems. It’s a guideline, it ain’t God’s word. and it is almost never exactly right.It it could even be close we could forgo playing the games and just analyze each team and present trophies all in a few days. I like it better playing them all out.

Everything you said is true. I feel like you and N8 are familiar with me enough to realize that I also know this and assume yall do too and I don’t explicitly state it for the purposes of saving time. You ain’t gotta tell me what I already know. In fact, I’m oft making the same argument you just did to people who are slaves of fangraphs.

’m pretty sure I’m a realist, if not a skeptic.

True believer? Nah. Realist or skeptic. Skeptical realist, really.

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“only if you accept all the assumptions that are built into those systems.” nolie

Earlier you talked about coincidence and intangibles. I always think back to Bonds’ “16 hopper” to the plate in the 92 NLCS attempting to get Bream at the plate.

That was an absolutely horrible throw, by a guy that was generally thought of as a good to great OF (he won his 3rd straight GG – on his way to winning 8 total), trying to get one of the slowest runners in MLB at the time.

My assumption (right or wrong) is that if you give Bonds 100 attempts to get Bream on that play, he probably throws him out more than he doesn’t.

Stat analysis systems and theories can’t predict pressure, nerves, etc… Which is why it’s so hard to buy what they’re selling.

Dunn might very well be a horrible defender. But who’s to say he doesn’t make a “season saving” catch or throw on defense at some point?

I know those are small sample sizes and what not. But…..

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Nah. Realist or skeptic. Skeptical realist, really. PWH

Ok. good talk with da both of youse

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Sounds like Valverde is considering accepting arbitration as well… http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/valverde-may-accept-arbitration.html

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“I feel like you and N8 are familiar with me enough to realize that I also know this…” P.W.

Totally man. I wasn’t trying to jump down your throat. Just talking. Nothing more. Hell, 3 weeks ago I wasn’t sold on the whole park adjustment stuff. Still not completely sold on it. But understand it more than I did a few weeks ago.

It’s hard to teach an old dog new tricks. In the end, I just love talkin’ baseball. Especially when it’s at a time of the year where EVERYTHING is assumption and predictions based on past results.

Once the games start getting played, all that’s out the window. The results speak for themselves. This is the time of year for skeptics to be skeptical, and hope to run rampant with every move or non-move.

I’m a different blogger in the off-season. I love this time of year. Love the games too, but for a team that has missed the playoffs 4 years running, as fans hope is what fuels the anticipation of the upcoming season.

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N8 just give it up man, the stat heads are always right, or didn’t you know that already

W.A.R, WARP, VORP or FART if that’s what they wish to call it, the game on the field is what really counts. As for Adam Dunn, I still wouldn’t want him on my team for the simple reason that he is a one dimensional player (all offense, No defense).However great his offensive contribution, it is overrated due to all the opposing offense he gives up in RF and 1B due to his total lack of defense.

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Coach- exactly what stat categories would FART stand for? Sounds like something Andruw Jones probably led the Braves team in, wouldn’t you say?

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Redstick19

You wouldn’t be from Baton Rouge would you?

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I’m liking Boras’ responses about the Braves and in particular Jurrjens.

Agents can have an influence in players, as I’m sure Boras does. But his response kinda indicates that they’re open to a long-term Jurrjens contract. Jair grew up a huge Braves fan, & I’d bet he wants to stay & Boras kinda knows it. Agents for the most part, work on behalf of their client, so if Jair wants to stay, he will, regardless of his agent’s reputation. If Jair has another strong season, they’ll probably discuss “locking him up” next offseason.

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D-back Mac- yes, I would. You?

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D-backMac- good to hear of other South Louisiana people on here. Born and raised and live first 31 years of life in ‘the stick.” Traded that in for beaches of NW Florida and a wife 4 years ago. Still miss that place, though. It’ll always be home. Geaux Tigers and March on, Saints! However, I cannot run with you on Alabama. Louisiana/LSU boys do not pull for the Tide- but sure looks like your boys have good shot at a national title. Just remember: Saban was our coach first… Take it easy, D-Back.

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I live in Jay, FL. You?

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You’ve got to pull for the SEC though. I always do, no matter who comes out on top.

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D-back- That’s cool, just an hour or so away then. Time for me to hit the sack, man. About to fall asleep at keyboard. Take care, I’ll try to watch for you from now on when I’m on here…

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Good night and God bless, see ya later.

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Go look in the mirror. Hypocrisy loves itself Grape Moby

you should know jackass.Coach.Like usual comes on here and throws out a totally worthless remark that shows his ignorance and inability to comprehend what he reads. Why do you think he’s always copy/pasting thinks and claiming them as his own. Guy is a loser, as are you if you can’t see it. If you aren’t coach it had nothing whatsoever to do with you.

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Why come around once a day to belittle bloggers while never providing content or insight yourself? That’s all Moby Grape ever does.

so I can have the pleasure of talking to jerks like you hypocritical azzwipe. I do contribute when I have time but like Coach you are probably incapable of comprehending it. I have an idea instead of being a cowardly POC who uses a fake fake name, who not just be man enough to post to me in your usual blog name so all can see who the cowardly POC is.Keep throwing out your stupid comments in your silly little cowardly noms de idiot. pitiful pathetic little person who can’t let the rest of the blog know who is such a hypocrite. man up little bitty bubba

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Somebody needs a hug…..LOL

OMG, I haven’t laughed this hard in a while while reading the comments from our anonymous and fearless blog CAPTAIN. Go head on Dude! You rule the sandbox HAHAHAHA!!!!

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CB and McFann,

Bob Rathburn rumor isn’t true…

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and Mccann being our only other true power threat.

If even that!
*Gives an evil glare @ McFann!*

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Jurrjens4LCY,thanks for the info on Rathbun. Did it say who might be the next guy?

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CB,

No. But they said it might still could be him…

He apologized and he won’t get his news from http://www.fakenews.com anymore

PWHjort,

Here are my top 3 Braves games:

1. June 2 vs. Cubs (Frenchy ties game in 9th, Chips win in 12th, pisses off my silly gay Cubs fans)
2. August 8 at Dodgers (KK pitches like a machine, KJ goes yard in extra frames, Esco’s play)
3. August 7 at Dodgers (Ump blows call, screws Jurrjens, Johnson/McLouth/Loafy win game)

Now I’m off for school!
Go Mondays: “The Happiest Day of the Week!”

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FoxNoise: how exactly has Wren mismanaged the finances? If Soriano declines arb, the Braves get a draft pick and if he accepts they get him for a few months and then will trade him (or someone else) for most likely an even better return.

Also, he did overpay for Lowe, but that was due to the fact that the Braves were coming off a 92 loss season. It’s hard to convince prime FAs to join losing teams – and that 4th year for Lowe was the difference maker between him being a Brave and being a Met.

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“how about a straight up trade of Lowe and Chipper to Detroit for Miguel Cabrera and Edwin Jackson? Of course, Cabrera needs to promise to attend AAA” – John Tucker

Does Miguel Cabrera have a flat tire or something?

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If we have to resign Soriano ($8 million), we could still sign Cameron $6 million) and Laroche $8 million. We would have to release Church, Johnson, Anderson, and we could have the $3 million that Laroche cost. That savings would equal $12 million. We have saved $3 million on Hudson compared to last years deal. We could trade Javy or Lowe and still be favorable in salary to last year.

We would have a GREAT starting pitching staff, we would have a GREAT relief staff. We would have an improved offensive team compared to last year, we would have an improved defensive team compared to last year.

We could trade Soriano during the year (save $4 million) and bring up in July Kimbrel, Hyde, Heyward and Jordan S.

That sounds like a great offseason.

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OMG! the snow is packin’!

Can anyone say “snowball fight?”

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No, but seriously … you think Chipper would approve a trade to Detroit, huh?

Sure. I remember all those interviews with him where he made comments along the lines of “gee I wish my team played in a colder climate, it’d be great for my toes and obliques.” and “this town is great, but what is really missing, and what I would love to have, is a giant lake, or better yet, several giant lakes within hours of here. And I mean big ass lakes. Look like oceans.”
That and his love of casinos…

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With this talk of aiming for Marlon Byrd or Willingham, would a surprise acceptance of arbitration by Soriano really break the bank beyond a stretch? I just can’t imagine the teams high sights on sluggers of Byrd’s ilk really costing all that much.

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