12:31 am November 10, 2009, by David O'Brien
November 14th, 20091:08 am
you know my stand. keep all the pitchers.
November 14th, 20091:11 am
you know my stand. keep all the pitchers. Uga
yup, I know, but I seriously doubt that is gonna happen either.One of them is a pretty big contract hanging around “just in case”. cause the two cheap ones would be kept anyway.
November 14th, 20091:13 am
would rather keep javy. to trade him for marginal talent will be a mistake.
keep the same team together that was hot in september.
that includes a certain tall first baseman that plays really good defense.
November 14th, 20091:19 am
that includes a certain tall first baseman that plays really good defense Uga
I’m thinking that is a long shot too, but more likely than 6 pitchers. I am ok with retaining Adam even though he is not gonna hit like he did for us this year, not in the eraly going anyway. If I were him, I would be holdind out for a 3/25 + contract and I doubt Atlanta does that.
I don’t know exactly why, but I view Wren’s statements this year as somewhat more ambiguous that last year’s, I just feel that many on here are expecting more than is gonna be delivered. I hope I’m wrong.
November 14th, 20091:22 am
i know you were a scout.
so in order how would you rank the current rotation?
for me, in order,
javy, hanson, jjj, hudson, and lowe.
pretty great rotation no?
dont care about left field.
pitch that rotation every five days, we will win 90 plus.
November 14th, 20091:34 am
bring back rochy. dont have to anything else.
November 14th, 20091:37 am
mclouth will hit.
bring back roachy. that is the key.
November 14th, 20091:39 am
pretty great rotation no? Uga
yeah absolutely, but I think we still need a boost in hitting to compete with Philly.I just have a bad feeling that they are gonna rely on that rotation too much, let Roachie go and get a less that stellar OFer.
The first four of those guys are pretty close right now, I think Hanson has the potential to end up as the best if he stays healthy. As much as I have pushed Javy since they got him, I agree with some that he has not really lived up to his ’stuff’ some of the time. Guy definitely has had head problems;maybe that’s past, I hope it is.I think JJ has outperformed his ’stuff’ a bit, especially in 09. Can he keep that up? Some like Glav can, many can’t. I think it looks promising, but probably not another ERA under 3. this year.
I don’t get to see the guys play in person anymore, and ranking off Tv is hazardous.As far as pure ’stuff’ alone right now I’d say Javy/Hanson then Huddy/JJ then Lowe; but Lowe gets by on more than he really has many years. I also think KK did very well after mid-May? Tough to fight cultural changes, different ball, different strike zone etc. Definitely as deep a rotation as has been around in some years on any team. Not the absolute brute maybe yet, but a lot of 2s.
November 14th, 20091:42 am
“bring back roachy. that is the key.”-uga-brave
Except that for the first 81 games, he is never the same player that he is for the second 81. Don’t forget that we lost the wildcard this past season in may/june. not in september. we have to be the team to beat in the first part of the season as well.
November 14th, 20091:53 am
i know the roachy first half numbers.
what would you do?
play prado at first base?
November 14th, 20092:00 am
Except that for the first 81 games, he is never the same player that he is for the second 81. (Moe)
that’s true to one extent or another, but FA-wise he is the best available IMO. Course we know the Braves like to trade more than they like FA, but with the high minors being thinner than usual this year, do we have what is needed for a big trade? Hey, I’m asking not saying. I don’t know.
At this point it seems to me that a lot will ride on what kinda trade he can work out for one of the starters.I do think there will be a lot more complementary players available at lower prices this year.I think teams will worry less about their Johnson/Church kinda guys cause there will likely be equal players available more cheaply because they won’t have arb. I’m interested to see if that really is the case.
It’s a shame IMO cause I think we could spend another 20mil say and have a team as good or better as others that will have spent more, but that ain’t gonna happen.
November 14th, 20092:14 am
Nate will hit, and I want Adam “Bomb” back too (1st half numbers be bleeped!) – when he hits HRs, he hits ‘em! – plus, he loves being a Brave and he plays great defense at 1st!
November 14th, 20092:28 am
I guess that is my way of saying I agreed with you ugabrave Up to a point at least.
Wayne in Utah
November 14th, 20093:12 am
Boy it’s late, but I think I have the answer (how many of us have declared that in the past week and a half???). Juan Rivera of the Angels. Offer Lowe. The deal might need to be tweaked, but I think he is not really in the Angels plans. He rakes against lefthanders, and is OK against righties. Has a pretty good arm (over 10 assists last year). He will be 32 next summer, and is signed for two more years at 3.25 million per. Very affordable.
We would probably need Diaz and maybe even Church until Heyward is able to play full time. We might could even think about adding Uggla too, but probably not.
Offer arbitration to LaRoche, and try to sign him for 2-3 years.
I don’t know if we have anybody better than Mac for cleanup, but maybe it is time for him to face reality. He is probably our best player right now, considering Chipper’s decline. Maybe with another year under his belt, and a strong lineup from 1-8, he won’t feel undue pressure to be more than he can be.
Add a couple of relievers, or resign our old ones, and we are primed for a very competitive year, with good opportunities to play deep into October!
Now, please don’t everybody thank me all at once.
Sleep well all!
November 14th, 20093:22 am
If we cannot get Rivera for Lowe (in an potentially expanded deal), then I would not be too disappointed in going after Cory Hart and Matt Gamel for Vazquez. We might have to throw in a good minor league prospect to sweeten the deal though. Milligan or Johnson?
Dang I would love to hang onto Johnson, due to his enormous power potential. He will probably never put it all together, but if he did, damn!
November 14th, 20096:23 am
So, it’s becoming clear that Wren is going to pass on trying to sign the power-hitter this team desperately needs for the sake of signing scrubs to fill the holes…yet again. Ah well, that’s great. Shooting for another 3rd/4th place finish I see. Good job, Wren.
They can’t expect to compete with this offense. Yeah, the pitching was good…in fact, it was so good, they really have no where to go but down next season. I’m not convinced that Vasquez, JJ, and even Hanson didn’t pitch over their heads this past season. Couple that along with the subpar offense, this team is going to be in the same position it’s been for the past 4 years, sitting at home come October, watching the Mets/Phillies celebrate.
And even if they end up trading Vazquez or Lowe, it’s not going to be for anyone that can put the team over the top. God forbid, Heyward comes up and actually plays like the rookie he is who hasn’t had more than 173 ab above A level (I know, non-sense right?) or worse, ends up being a bust. (*gasps* but that never happens to prospects!)
November 14th, 20098:22 am
wayne, what does johnson have to put together? ill take his current results at the major league level.
November 14th, 20098:25 am
Problem is who can they get. Cruz doesn’t drive in enough runs. Dye is too old. Willingham not really. Let’s try for Braun.
November 14th, 20098:29 am
Been a good boy this year.
If you can, I’d like a legit bat in the #4 spot for the Braves. I’d also like a HOF finish for Javy in a Braves uniform. The rest will take care of itself.
November 14th, 20098:30 am
i shold say, ill take his danville and myrtle beach results at the ML level.
November 14th, 20098:47 am
sign laroche to a split contract—put him in gwinnett until all star break
November 14th, 20098:50 am
Reality (November 14th, 2009 6:23 am): “So, it’s becoming clear that Wren is going to pass on trying to sign the power-hitter this team desperately needs for the sake of signing scrubs to fill the holes…yet again.”
It may be clear to you, but it is not clear to me or many others here.
It must feel pretty damm good — a welcome catharsis — to publicize your angst like that, while knowing that at the same time it exposes your stupidity.
Keep it real, bro. (Or at least, plausible.)
November 14th, 20098:56 am
tr (November 14th, 2009 8:29 am): “Dear S*nta . . . “
You foolish, reckless boy!!!
Are you deliberately invoking the advent of S*nta3247 onto this blog?!?!?
(makes the sign of the cross)
November 14th, 20098:58 am
everybody talking about how bad laroche is in the first half…please realize that he doesnt just totally suck until the 2nd half. he is not bad enough in the first half to reject him entirely. in 2009 he OPSed .783 in the first half. thats not awful. he hit 12 homers, only one less than he hit in the first half. he had 39 RBI, only 5 less than he had in the 2nd half…
November 14th, 20098:59 am
If we cannot get Rivera for Lowe (in an potentially expanded deal), then I would not be too disappointed in going after Cory Hart and Matt Gamel for Vazquez. We might have to throw in a good minor league prospect to sweeten the deal though. Milligan or Johnson?
Wayne, we really wouldn’t have to throw anything in on that deal. Hart and Gamel wouldn’t be enough for Vazquez, imo.
November 14th, 20099:24 am
Random, what is up? We been missing you on the blog,everybody talking about you- I tried to take up for you.
November 14th, 20099:26 am
Here’s my crazy trade proposal for the day:
Trade the Michigan boys McLouth and Lowe to Detroit for Magglio and Granderson. You’d basically be trading one $57 million contractual obligation for a $59 million contractual obligation. Lowe is owed 3 years, $45 mil. McLouth is owed 2 years, $11 mil with a $1.25 mil buyout in the third year. Magglio will likely be owed 2 years, $33 mil. Granderson will be owed 3 years, $24 million with a $2 mil buyout on the fourth year.
Don’t know if it really works because the Tigers are looking to shed payroll. $2 million saved over the next 3 years doesn’t sound like the kind of savings they envision. But they’d be paying Lowe/McLouth $4 million less than Granderson/Mags in 2010, and $2 million less in 2011. In 2012, Lowe + McLouth’s buyout would cost them $16.25 versus Granderson’s $10 mil, so they’d get hurt there, but they’d also be spared Granderson $2 mil buyout in 2013. They could also just trade Lowe before he hurts them financially in 2012.
Detroit would not suffer a considerable dropoff in talent, and would be gaining two hometown boys of sorts which may or may not be marketable, and Lowe and McLouth are still valuable enough commodities that they could always flip them for prospects or arb-eligible types. A sinkerballer like Lowe may also do well in Comerica.
Gotta be concerned about Magglio’s age and declining power, and Granderson’s disgusting inability to hit lefties. Mags can still hit for a high average and get on base at a high rate. Not the ideal cleanup at this point, but if he can still hit .300+ with average power and an average walk rate he’s gonna both create run scoring opportunities for the guys behind him while also likely driving in alot of runs if the guys in front of him, i.e. Granderson, Prado, and Chipper, are doing their jobs by getting on base. With Mags, you’d have Mags, Chipper, Escobar, Prado, McCann, Diaz/Heyward all being .300+ like hitters, with all possessing the ability to OBP .360+ while slugging .450+. Granderson has shown similar ability in 2007/2008. Granderson’s AVG was down this year, but he still had an average walk rate, while hitting 30 homers, and having an ISOP over .200. Plus, coupling a black star like Granderson with Heyward is something I don’t believe should be underestimated in a city that is 60% black.
Don’t know why I just wasted a ton of time on something that will never happen, and probably doesn’t make sense, but I did, and those are my thoughts this Saturday morning.
November 14th, 20099:28 am
ugabrave-I’m with you on re-signing LaRoche-for three years. Let Freeman wait. The kid just turned 20. I hardly think he will be in decline or dotage at age 23.
As for those complaining about Roach’s first half stats. I researched it and he averages .252 BA, with 14 HR and about 40 something RBI before the All Star Break. Last season, Kotchman hit 2 HR’s before the break. Does anyone truly believe that 10-12 more would have made all the difference in the world to our pre-June 28th performance and lead to a Wild Card appearance by year’s end? Why go looking when the answer is already at your door?
November 14th, 20099:30 am
javy, hanson, jjj, hudson, and lowe.
I would switch Jurrjens and Hanson — I don’t think, at this point, that Hanson is better than Jurrjens, though I’d also say that he isn’t too far behind.
November 14th, 20099:36 am
Braveheart,I would do that deal although I hope the Braves can come up with a better deal. Magglio would probably perform better if he got out of Detroit and I have always liked Granderson.
November 14th, 20099:40 am
lew, im with you all the way on laroche. sign him for three years and make freeman force us to trade him.
November 14th, 20099:46 am
Lew,I think somebody yesterday made a suggestion yesterday that I like- the Braves should go ahead and extend Vazquez and then try to trade Lowe. Their reasoning was it would show other teams we are serious about keeping Vazquez and trading Lowe. The negative would be if they could not trade Lowe,it would mean one of the starters would have to pitch out of the bullpen.
Sorry, Random, I had no idea and would never knowingly do such a thing!
November 14th, 20099:47 am
LaRoche’s first half averages (up to All Star break) from ‘05 thru 09 .251, 12, 45
No, not All Star selection material, but hardly sub ground level, either.
November 14th, 20099:48 am
CB-And which pitcher has extensive bullpen experience? Lowe. But would they even consider asking him to close? Especially at $15 mil per season.
November 14th, 20099:49 am
jeff francoeur, jason werth, and corey hart, were all tall power hitting prospects. werth and hart could run. francoeur and werth had arms. werth became a star.
and werth didn’t do jacksh!t in the majors until he was 28 years old. He only had 825 plate appearances in the majors through the age of 27. Francoeur had that many halfway through his age 22 season.
Through his age 27 season, Werth had hit .245/.333/.420/.753/98 OPS+ in 825 plate appearances spread out over 5 seasons. Through his age 25 season, Francoeur has hit .271/.311/.432/.743/92 OPS+ in 2940 plate appearances spread out over 5 seasons.
Not saying Frenchy will ever be as good as Werth. Just saying it doesn’t make any sense to say oh, boy, look, one figured it out and turned into a star, and the other one didn’t, when the one who turned into a star didn’t do anything until he was 28 to 30 years old, an age range the one who hasn’t turned out to be a star is still 3 to 5 years away from.
As for Corey Hart, here’s what he’s done the last two seasons in his age 26 and 27 seasons: .265/.315/.442/.757. That’s about as Francoeur as it gets.
November 14th, 20099:51 am
Daybed-Does it really matter who pitches in what order? Javy, Hanson, or Jurrjens could pitch 1-3 with no real drop off in ability at this point in time (or is that pint in time?)..
November 14th, 20099:53 am
Wayne in Utah (November 14th, 2009 3:12 am): “Boy it’s late, but I think I have the answer (how many of us have declared that in the past week and a half???). Juan Rivera of the Angels.”
The Reds’ Jonny Gomes may be better than Rivera, and certainly less expensive.
In fact, I heard that he might be non-tendered.
Both are career .801 OPS, >470/.47a SLG and Gomes is ~2.5 years younger (will turn 29 next week).
To clarify — Rivera may be slightly better than Gomes (eg, AVG), but Gomes is cheaper and 2.5 years younger.)
November 14th, 20099:55 am
Kryced — Both are career .801 OPS, .470/.471 SLG and Gomes is ~2.5 years younger (will turn 29 next week).
November 14th, 20099:56 am
Lew, if they could get Vazquez to sign a home town discount of 3yrs- 30mil,the possibilities for closer on this type of team would be several. You could short term use Hanson or even Vazquez,but I know this not the way the Braves want to go. I think like you do,there is someone out there who would trade for Lowe.
November 14th, 200910:00 am
The pint IS the point. It is, after all, a Saturday during football/hot stove season!
As for rotation order, any way you configure it, 1 + 2 + 3 = a good chance to win & 4 + 5 = an even better chance to win cuz we’d probably (insert “prolly” or “probly” as preferred) be facing lesser pitching!
If LaRoche is still on the roster come opening day, I hope it’s because he accepted arb, BUT having both he and Freeman available for the roster in 2011 would be very similar to having six starters now, roster flexibility, options, and ability to make a team-friendly trade!
November 14th, 200910:03 am
CB (November 14th, 2009 9:46 am): “Lew,I think somebody yesterday made a suggestion yesterday that I like- the Braves should go ahead and extend Vazquez and then try to trade Lowe.”
I think somebody made that suggestion over a month ago.
November 14th, 200910:07 am
Brilliant minds think alike,Random. You are always ahead of the field.
November 14th, 200910:14 am
Now that the Huddy deal is done, Braves can move on to other tasks, knowing that they have several very good pitchers locked up for years to come.
I still say that Lowe is more valuable to the Braves right now than Vazquez, because he is locked up for three more years.
If the Braves can sign a multi-year deal with Vazquez, then the values flip-flop.
For 2010, the difference (in salaries) between Lowe and Vazquez is a Ryan Church or Kelly Johnson (about $4M).
Whomever the Braves trade (unless they go with a 6 man rotation), it’s going to be a little bit of a sad day in Braves-land. All six of those guys are very good major league pitchers, either with fantastic potential or with proven experience.
Despite the economy, I have a hard time accepting that no one will take Lowe’s contract. After all, last season, the Braves were in desperate enough shape on starting pitching to sign the four year deal. Many teams in MLB are in worse shape than the 2008 Braves.
November 14th, 200910:17 am
CB-I really don’t think it will be that difficult to trade Lowe, lock stock and salary. There is a dearth of good pitching on the market this winter and Lowe is as good as anyone (except Halladay) that has been mentioned as being on the block. Lackey is the only other pitcher of note out there. The Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, and others will be looking for starting pitching.
Does anyone think the Mets aren’t kicking themselves over lowballing Lowe with an Oliver Perez offer? $15 mil for a perennial 15 game winning, 200 IP pitcher is not expensive-unless you have six other potential starters and a low salary level like the Braves. No other team in MLB really would have complained about his numbers last year. Ours is the only staff where he would have been a low rotation pitcher last year.
November 14th, 200910:25 am
If the Braves construct a deal with the Brewers, they may be able to lure Corey Hart to Atlanta to at least serve as a short-term solution in their outfield. The athletic 27-year-old outfielder recorded consecutive 20-20 seasons (20 homers and 20 stolen bases) and then provided nothing but disappointment while hitting .260 with 12 homers and 11 stolen bases this past summer.
Hart made $3.25 million during his first arbitration-eligible season this past year. The presence of a player with his potential could provide the Braves the option to send Heyward to the Minors for the first couple months of the season to gain seasoning and delay the start of his arbitration clock.
I really can’t see a package that the Brewers could offer that would make sense for Vazquez. Didn’t we just trade Corey Hart to the Mets for Ryan Church because we were likely to non tender him this coming offseason? And Gamel has no real position. I’ve said this before, with Javy’s NTC to West teams, it makes it a lot harder to find a reasonable match than some here think.
November 14th, 200910:30 am
Jim, if it makes you feel any better, I am as concerned about the W&M game as I was about ‘NOVA. It’s a toss-up IMO.
November 14th, 200910:33 am
randomIn fact, I heard that he might be non-tendered.
do you have a link to that info? cause gomes would be a great pickup.
November 14th, 200910:35 am
But they don’t have 15 million to spend on an exceptional first-half, grind it out second-half pitcher.
November 14th, 200910:56 am
“No other team in MLB really would have complained about his numbers last year. Ours is the only staff where he would have been a low rotation pitcher last year.”
How is a plus 4 era guy anything but a lower end of the rotation guy?
November 14th, 200911:01 am
Why is no one talking about the fact that KK was the odd man out last year when Hudson came back…it would seem that he would be on the block as well if we viewed a rotation of Hudson, Hanson, JJ, Vazquez, and Lowe as stronger than having KK in there?
November 14th, 200911:06 am
Gomes is a puzzling player to figure out. Was a pretty good part time player for the Rays for a few years, had a terrible year in 2008, their big season, and had a good power year this year with the Reds. Has never had much of a batting average.
How is his D? Is he similar to Diaz maybe, but with more power and less basehits? Definitely a HIGH K batter.
He hit 15 of 20 HR’s last season, but with only 180 to 101 AB’s R/L.
As for Rivera, I wasn’t overly concerned about him being 32 next year. How long will we need him for anyway? 1-2 years if all goes well with our other players (Heyward, McLouth and Schafer).
Heck when has our outfield stayed consistent for over 2 years anyway. Crap happens.
What say ye?
November 14th, 200911:09 am
KK is considered a better #5 starter because of his more affordable contract. Can you see keeping Lowe, and having him be your 15 million per year #5?
Just my guess.
After reading all the various trade proposals for the Braves, that have been existing on this blog during “hot stove”, I think this blog should be renamed “rumor humor”!
1 – When he wins 15 games!
2 – Not as much salary relief to afford more bats AND great in big games AND better Japan/Atlanta relations AND, like Lowe and Javy I’m sure he would be available for the right price!
November 14th, 200911:13 am
Yes it is true that Gamels has no position. If he ends up being the hitter he is projected to be, you would find a place for him, either as Chipper’s eventual replacement or with an AL team as their DH via a later deal.
Who keeps pushing Atkins as a first base alternative? I like that idea, if LaRoche can’t be signed. Besides, if he bombs, you have Freeman coming along (hopefully, yes) and you didn’t pay too dearly to get him. If he reverts to his pre-2009 form, then he could also be a Chipper replacement at some point down the road.
Again, neither of these guys are stellar defenders, but neither was Chipper earlier in his career. (or last year, I might add)
November 14th, 200911:14 am
itcouldbeworse-Go check out all the rotations in MLB and see just where Lowe ranks comparatively. Dude would be a #2-3 starter for most of the teams. He DID win 15 games (yeah, yeah, I know about the ERA and WHIP, but winning still isn’t something that many pitchers do) and pitches 200 innings on an annual basis. How many pitchers can you find that won as many as he did and pitched the innings that he did? Don’t bother checking Dude, here’s the figures.
ML teams carry five man rotations (many use more than five starters, but….) that makes at least 150 starting pitchers at any given time in MLB. In 2009, there were 20 pitchers with better ERA’s than Lowe who won 15 games. There were 39 of them who pitched more innings. Let’s say that each teams first two starters are top rotation-that’s 60 pitchers in MLB that are top of rotation pitchers. Lowe’s rank of top 20 in wins and 39th in IP puts him as one of the 60 top rotation pitchers in baseball-at least in those categories (and it takes his higher ERA into account). Now tell me-who’s correct about Lowe’s status? Maybe if you actually did research instead of reacting emotionally??
November 14th, 200911:15 am
Sorry-that should have read winning 15 isn’t something many pitchers do.
November 14th, 200911:18 am
itcouldbe worse-Dude, if we traded Kawakami, the salary savings would be less than $7 million. If we trade Lowe, the salary savings would be $15 million. How much more could we get in the hitting department for those extra $8 million? Think it might actually make a bit of a difference?
November 14th, 200911:19 am
Gordo,why not share your wisdom on trade proposals? We have room for one more.
November 14th, 200911:20 am
As I have stated before, I think Lowe improves over his overall efficiency last year (he was very effective…15 wins….but not very efficient….hi ERA and WHIP…) and Vazquez will go in the other direction, with a marginal drop from 2009.
Just a guess. So, if you are buying it (my predictions for 2010), then you deal whichever guy gets you more closely what the team needs next year to compete. If it is Vazquez, so be it.
I would prefer however to keep Vazquez over Lowe, all else being equal.
Even if dealing Lowe did not get that missing piece, it might enable us to get that piece via other means. This isn’t anything that hasn’t already been said a hundred times here in the past 10 days.
November 14th, 200911:23 am
“Lew,I think somebody yesterday made a suggestion yesterday that I like- the Braves should go ahead and extend Vazquez and then try to trade Lowe.” CB
“I think somebody made that suggestion over a month ago.” Random
Really? Somebody is trying to pass this off as an original thought?
I’ve got one. I think when people are tired, they should go to bed. Then when they’ve had enough sleep, they should get up.
Those two “thoughts” are about as obvious as each other. Dontcha think?
I’ll say it again. It’s really simple. If the Braves CAN find somebody to take Lowe’s contract (all of it), then it’s simple math. You keep Vazquez. Whether he’s extended or not is a moot point, at this time. Then you use the money freed up by dumping Lowe for some mid-level, short term answers at 1B and the OF until Freeman and Heyward are ready (Cameron, Dye, LaRoche, Nick Johnson, etc…).
If the Braves are interested in trading for somebody along the lines of Prince Fielder and locking him up long-term, then you trade Vazquez and Freeman for him (or somebody like him).
IMO, with Vazquez in the rotation (along with JJJ, KK, Hanson and Hudson) it is not as necessary for an absolute stud in the lineup. We would have the best 1-5 pitching staff in baseball. Period.
That may still be the case with Lowe instead of Vazquez, it just doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out it would be better with Vaz instead of Lowe.
But to think that somebody has come up with a brainstorm gangbuster thought that Lowe should be traded and Vazquez kept? OK. Whatever.
November 14th, 200911:28 am
I think the prospects of JAVY giving a home-town discount in the area you mentioned in exchange for a three year deal are a given. It’s just a matter of whether the BRAVES want to go through another short negotiation. VASQUEZ is the best trade option for the BRAVES at this point. He is the only starter not locked-up for two years or more. He would definitely bring the most value offense -wise. But after that break-out season, he’s the security blanket you just don’t want to part with as you’re growing up.
It all depends on who we get in return for KENSHIN, DEREK or JAVY. These three have been and are being shopped currently IMO. Whomever brings the best batting fit in return to the OF or 1B goes. If 1B, LaROCHE goes. If OF, LaROCHE signs for three with a discount around 9 million and we worry about FREEMAN or CODY JOHNSON when the time comes – IF the time comes. SCHAFER gets another serious shot to make the 25 man, or is back on the 40 man depending on ST. BRANDON JONES gets a shot, his last, in ST. He either makes the active club or is off the big roster. GARRETT is history in a BRAVES uni, possibly GREGOR BLANCO as well depending on new OF’ers. His longevity on the 40 man is iffy at best. IMO HERNANDEZ is kept on the 40 man strictly as insurance. CANIZARES is cut loose and signs with KC. BROOKS CONRAD looks great in ST again (hopefully), and makes the roster starting out the spring taking NORTON’s slot.
Maybe we sign MFIKY and/or GONZO, and maybe we don’t, depending on current values in the relief market this winter, and who’s left standing late. We slot PROCTOR; minors/40 man/25 active roster, depending on results in the spring, and finish out the bull-pen. MEDLIN, O’FLAHERTY, LOGAN and MOYLAN stay. ACOSTA probably gets hidden on the 40 man along with MAREK, REDMOND, and VALDEZ depending on ST results. REYES gets his last serious shot in ST although he may linger on the 40 man if he’s still deemed a prospect. PARR is probably dropped after early ST.
Lastly, the bench. We finalize a replacement for GREG NORTON, and one of KELLY JOHNSON or RYAN CHURCH make like a tree and leaf. ROSS, INFANTE and DIAZ stay. SAMMONS stays on the 40 man.
Of course, WREN will be working on all four slots simultaneously. We know this because unlike last year, we realize FW does good work. Which is even better now that silence once again reigns in the front office. All this IMHO, of course.
November 14th, 200911:33 am
Guys you have all seen this before where Bobby will keep playing a seasoned veteran guy making bigger bucks (think Andrew Jones) even though he is not the best option over a less seasoned guy who is not making as much. IMO KK would have been a better choice down the stretch than Lowe. But I also think Bobby mishandled Lowe by not giving him a start or two off when he was struggling. If you remember that his struggles came in the second half when was tiring out over the long haul and most of his wins and lower ERA came in the first have when he was still fresh.
Although I would like to see Lowe traded away over KK and Javy, if Lowe would be given a couple of breathers towards the middle and end of the season he would remain fresh and keep up the performances he did early in the season.
November 14th, 200911:36 am
Not doubting who had an original thought. I don’t get on as frequently as some, and when I do, I don’t go back and reread everything. A lot of times I will have a thought about something, and then 15 minutes later read someone else say near exactly the same thing.
I guess what I am saying is that 4-5 of us could be having the same thoughts about how to approach a certain situation (the Vazquez dilemma, for instance). Some may never post it. Someone is always first, but if you said something first, and I didn’t read it, then it’s not like I was trying to scoop you.
But, as all know, Al Gore is a liar, because I discovered the internet first.
(Did I ever tell you folks about witnessing a WWW first at UC Berkeley’s Library system in the wee early 80’s. They had their card catalogue system on this early “internet” via microwave technology.)
So it is true that I “discovered” it before Al!! Darned interesting stuff, of which I only understand a fraction of it.
November 14th, 200911:38 am
N8, thanks for your post. We will try not to think any more today as we are probably sleep deprived, but we will sit back and wait anxiously for all your original thoughts. Will you share one today?
November 14th, 200911:39 am
Also re: Derek Lowe. He was 70th in ERA among MLB starters. THAT puts him in #3 starter territory-about mid way for all starters. There were also 23 of those 69 ahead of Lowe in ERA that had NEITHER as many wins nor as many innings pitched.
Sorry, but all the comparative stats place Lowe as a solid top rotation starter-no matter how upset Braves fans may be about his “terrible” season. Maybe not an “Ace”, but how many of those creatures actually exist?
It’s kinda hard to be critical of Bobby use of the staff in the second half, as he was trying to catch up with Philadelphia and Colorado.
Hindsight is 20/20.
November 14th, 200911:43 am
Gotta run. The Saturday “honey-do” list is getting longer by the minute. She keeps walking by my office, staring in with a look that says “your azz will be grass if you don’t hurry up and get off that darned computer!”
November 14th, 200911:46 am
sorry it took so long to respond. The argument that being a innings eater makes you a top 2 starting pitcher does not hold water. The best example of this is Livan Hernandez a well known innings eater with a high era and wins. In 2009 he had 189 innings and only 9 wins but in 2008 he had 13 wins and a 6.05 era. In 2007 11 and 4.93 in 2006 13 and 4.83 in 2005 15 and 3.98. Is anyone going to claim he is a top of the rotation guy no. well lowe was not much better than that.
November 14th, 200911:48 am
So, Wayne says, “But, honey, millions of dollars are at stake and Frank is depending on us to get all this figured out ASAP!”
November 14th, 200911:50 am
My point about kk was not that he was a better trade option…I think he got better after the first couple of months. I just think bobby and wren want lowe in there. If that is the case and KK becomes a middle releif guy again 7 mil is alot to pay a middle releif pitcher. I would love to see lowe get traded or moved to the closer role but I don’t know if we could get enough in return to make it worth it for wren
November 14th, 200911:52 am
Lowe WAS better in each and every year you mentioned.
And, yes, Livan is a top of the rotation starter………..for the Nats – LOL
November 14th, 200911:56 am
Dude your missing the point I was not saying livan was better than lowe I was saying that he is known as a innings eater the agruement that lowe was a top of the rotation guy because he ate innings and just ignore the era and whip (a very bad arguement). WHIP AND ERA are a better judge of a season than wins and innings unless you think lowe was better than jj and hanson becasue he threw more innings or javy becasue he had more wins
P. W. Hjort
Does anybody give a sh!t about David Beckham?
November 14th, 200911:58 am
Wayne it wasn’t hindsight I said before I stopped opining that Lowe needed a start or two off in order to refresh himself. Anyone in his right mind could see that Lowe was tiring. His innings pitched per game when down, he started to leave a lot of balls up thus his ERA went up as well. The Brave would have benefited from a fresh Lowe. I still think Lowe is a good starter and very worthy of #2 or 3 starter status he just needs to be able to skip a start or two down the stretch in his seasoned condition.
November 14th, 200912:01 pm
As many have said, I don’t see the Braves making a move regarding a starter until around the first week of December. At that point, they’ll have a better idea of their needs, with arbitration decisions on Gonzo, Soriano and LaRoche already made.
November 14th, 200912:05 pm
LOL. I think Posh Spice is the only one in America who cares about that guy
November 14th, 200912:06 pm
When does arbitration decisions need to be made by?
itcouldbeworse-First of all, I didn’t draw my conclusions on IP alone (though if you’ll remember, we got Lowe to eat innings and win 15 games because we had no pitching staff remain healthy in 08-which he DID). I also took ERA (the big “BAD” number everyone refers to re: Lowe’s “terrible” season) and wins into account.
Like I said, 150 starters in MLB. Lowe was 70th in ERA (High #3 territory-as a matter of fact, less than 1/2 way down the list of 150 starters). He was 20th in wins (# 1 territory-30 teams, only 20 with more wins- except on Braves). He was 39th in IP (#2 territory). Tell me exactly how that does NOT translate to top of rotation?
Just messin with ya!
But, seriously, I do consider Lowe a top half of the rotation starter who pitched a handful of rough games, probably because of blister problems.
And I think that KK would bring as much (relatively) in a trade as the other two because Javy is in the last year of his contract (rental), Lowe is too expensive for many teams and not getting younger while KK was at his best in big games and his salary is affordable for many more teams looking for better pitching. But that doesn’t mean I’d want to trade him more than Lowe because the point of that one would be to shed salary for a more important need this coming season.
November 14th, 200912:09 pm
And we let Duke march down the field and score. Sigh.
How about trading Vazquez or KK and a prospect for Lance Berkman. If it was KK, I would then try to trade Lowe for a couple of young prospects or someone like Corey Hart and a prospect or juan rivera and brandon woodThen you could put Medlen at the 5 spot in the rotation and have the money for the bullpen
to be named later
might have to give up brandon hicks in the berkman deal, but it would be worth it
I like that lineup and rotation, what do you guys think
November 14th, 200912:12 pm
Dude-YOu want WHIP, too? OK-Lowe was 76th in WHIP among ML starters. Still puts him in #3 territory.
So let’s see-among #1 starters in wins. #2 starter in IP. #3 starter in ERA. #3 starter in WHIP. Top of rotation starter and nowhere near as poor a season as you think.
Any other stats you want me to site?
November 14th, 200912:13 pm
I agree 08 was tough because of all the issues with the rotation. I wish I was not at work so I could look up stats faster but we pay lowe like a number 1 starter I think. (he is in the top 30 in starting pitchers pay right…I can’t look up that stat). That is why I think having as you put it # 2 or #3 years makes it tough to trade him without eating some of the salary. I think it is more likely that the braves will try and trade javy because he is coming off one of his best years and is very inconsitant from year to year historicly. I will give you that lowe is at least a number 3 starter on most teams but is # 3 enough to justify the pay?
KK for Hart is fair. Lowe or Vazquez for Hart is asinine.
November 14th, 200912:16 pm
wayne just an anecdote, my dad was probably among the first people in the world ever to use the internet. he joined the army in the early 70s, and spent his time as a technology and communications specialist, all the way until 2000.
why dont we offer laroche the same deal we gave huddy. three years and the option. if we have to trade him to make room for freeman, teams love option years. that will help us market him.
November 14th, 200912:17 pm
December 1st. Then they have until Decemeber 7th(first day of the winter meetings) to accept the offer.
Steve from OH
November 14th, 200912:19 pm
Thinking Corey Hart is the piece we need to get over the top is asinine, BH. Gimme Diaz in LF and Heyward in RF to start the season over that.
November 14th, 200912:23 pm
Steve, I hear ya. Corey Hart? As Efrim just said, didn’t we just trade Corey Hart to the Mets? I’d take Diaz and Church together or individually over Hart, especially if it meant we have to trade away something to get him.
November 14th, 200912:27 pm
I wouldn’t go any more than 2 years and an option with LaRoche. And even then I would wait to see what is out on the market to get. He is way too inconsistant for my likes during the first half of the season.
November 14th, 200912:28 pm
PWHjort……………….absolutely h_ll NO!
November 14th, 200912:29 pm
I think Berkman would be the guy to put us over the top. After a little thought, I thnk Diaz would suffice in LF if we add a big stick like Berkman or D Lee at first. If KK and Lowe would bring us a big bat and some prospects to reinforce our upper minors, I would do it.
Diaz in the 8 hole behind Heyward would be fine with me.
November 14th, 200912:33 pm
Yes-Lowe IS among the top paid pitchers, but NOT at the very top. What do you think Halladay will sign for after this season? How about Cliff Lee? Think they might just make a bit more than $15 mil-kind of like Sabbathia, Santana and Burnett (who also isn’t a #1 guy). What would Josh Beckett get on a new contract? What will Lackey command (and I don’t consider him in the category of the others)? I promise you that $15 mil a season is merely a result of a poor economic scene last winter. That wont last.
Besides, you want an example of a BAD contract? How about Oliver Perez at $12 mil? How about Zito or Schmidt at $ ore than $15 mil (on contracts signed several years ago?
We may have overpaid a bit for Lowe in a bad market, but we needed reliable pitchig (which we got). We also have two pitchers making ML minimum, so it all balances out-on a team where Lowe is only a #3-4 starter. He would be worth considerably more to a team that had an extreme need for pitching. There are many.
I reiterate-$15 mil is not unreasonable for a top rotation starter and is a hell of alot better deal than many others out there.
November 14th, 200912:35 pm
If you review the Brewers roster, what would make sense for Javy? What assets do they have other than Fielder, Braun or Gallardo? I just don’t see a match. At least not for Vazquez. Which, honestly, is the case with a lot of teams in the Central and East divisions. Hell, even the Red Sox. A trade of Vazquez to Boston would net prospects. Is that the direction Wren would want to go? I doubt it. Perhaps Lowe for prospects/salary relief? Not to Boston that is, but I just don’t see a individual hitter that would make sense and match up with the Braves for Vazquez. I’m rambling, I know….
November 14th, 200912:40 pm
Sorry we stepped out of your shadow for a moment there, N8. It’s hard always having to follow such a grand, wise blogger as yourself and sometimes we forget our place. Please don’t be angry, master. (ok, ok. I’m just funning you there a bit, because I think he was referring to DOB mentioning that- not Lew or random himself). But seriously, it’s too early to spew vile around, dude.
November 14th, 200912:45 pm
Maybe we could look at this as a “Worst Case Scenario” situation, re: Lowe.
To me, the worst case scenario is Lowe remains a Brave and Javy is traded. That gives us “only” $11.5 million to work with in salary savings-more than enough to fill needs (along with a couple of non-tenderings). It leaves us with a rotation of Jurrjens, Hanson, Hudson, Lowe and Kawakami-for a total rotational salary of about $32 million, a third of our payroll and an average of $6.4 million per starter for the best rotation in (at the very least) NL. Why in hell are we bitching so much?
November 14th, 200912:47 pm
You also have to consider the market conditions. Last year, the Braves NEEDED Lowe and it cost a lot. If Wren does a good job of working the market, I believe (and, so posts say, does Lew) that there will be a team (or more) that will NEED Lowe enough to ignore their reservations and make the deal without the Braves paying even a penny of his salary.
We may not be able to “prove” it right now, but time (and desperation) will handle that chore.
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