Whatever nolie. I don’t need to look up the park adjustments to know that a guy like Marquis had a tougher go of it at old Busch Stadium, Wrigley and Coors, than Vazquez did in Yankee Stadium, at the BOB and in Cellular Field.
You think Vazquez has been above average for over a decade. Fine. One team jumped at him last year. Perhaps the other GM’s should have been made aware of the park adjusted ERA, huh?
Random, so let me get this right. Because Delgado wasn’t born in the US. Was playing for a Canadian team at the time, and was upset about us using parts of his home country as a base, he protested God Bless America, and you’re OK with that.
Yet I, as an American being offended by somebody making a TON of money playing a game based on “The American Dream” and capitalism at it’s finest, am “knocking down straw men”?
Why is he allowed to protest God Bless America, and I’m not allowed to protest Carlos Delgado protesting God Bless America?
As an American, that offended me. That simple. Don’t hate the guy, and stated that that is what is great about America, is that you are entitled the freedom to do so.
Was making a sarcastic joke about him being upset at America, but pocketing money on the American Past time. Really nothing more.
But you can call me the Crow from now on if it makes you feel any beter.
Whatever nolie. I don’t need to look up the park adjustments to know that a guy like Marquis had a tougher go of it at old Busch Stadium, Wrigley and Coors, than Vazquez did in Yankee Stadium, at the BOB and in Cellular Field.
You think Vazquez has been above average for over a decade. Fine. One team jumped at him last year. Perhaps the other GM’s should have been made aware of the park adjusted ERA, huh?
Why don’t you, instead of continuing to spout bullshit, look up some component ERA metrics. Is it that hard>?
PWH — At 12:56am, you conveniently leave out the little, tiny matter that DOB and others here have pointed out — that bit about the contract that Holliday will command as the leading free agent on the market. Sure, Holliday can put up the numbers and provide the offensive fire-power that the Braves need in the middle of their lineup. He’d make the lineup that much better and has the potential to help in leading the Braves back to the playoffs.
But in baseball, it’s all about the dollar, and the Braves cannot realistically insert him in their lineup without signing him to a fat, long-term contract that would undoubtedly prevent them from including the other necessary pieces to make that playoff run. I’m sure that Frank Wren and Bobby Cox would love to have a bat like Matt Holliday in this team’s lineup, but the fact is that the Braves don’t have the resources to make it so.
Whatever nolie. I don’t need to look up the park adjustments to know that a guy like Marquis had a tougher go of it at old Busch Stadium, Wrigley and Coors, than Vazquez did in Yankee Stadium, at the BOB and in Cellular Field.
You think Vazquez has been above average for over a decade. Fine. One team jumped at him last year. Perhaps the other GM’s should have been made aware of the park adjusted ERA, huh?
Why don’t you, instead of continuing to spout BS, look up some component ERA metrics. Is it that hard>?
All you have to do is go to http://www.hardballtimes.com/ and look at his FIP and xFIP or go to http://www.statcorner.com/ and look at his tRA. This argument wouldn’t even be an argument if you’d just do a tiny bit of research.
I don’t even know what the original argument was, I didn’t keep up, but the truth isn’t that hard to spot. He had been a historically unlucky pitcher. He has always been much better than his ERA (ERA fluctuates much more than fundamental skills), and if 2009 isn’t a perfect representation of his true skills, it’s not far off at all. That’s it. There’s not really much more to discuss.
I’m sure that Frank Wren and Bobby Cox would love to have a bat like Matt Holliday in this team’s lineup, but the fact is that the Braves don’t have the resources to make it so.
How do you know? You work for the Braves? Do you work in their accounting department?
Do you ever get to see the minor-league teams play? (PW)
not this year at all. a few times last year.a few dozen times the year B4 that, and from 05 or 04 Iand years b4 that I would spend a couple months each summer visiting 2 or 3 teams. Health/finances just not up to it any more.
Holliday would be the perfect fit for our Braves. Like PW says, he is the ideal acquisition, if money were not the object, that is.
Holliday is also more of a gap hitter than a pull hitter, so Turner would not hurt him much, if any.
Now, will the bidding be in the area where we can be competitive? Is he another Tex, just going to take the highest offer, regardless of the circumstances. Never mind what situation might be able to put him in more post seasons (hint, hint, we have some great pitching!). Nor which team would he fit perfectly on.
I remember thinking when Boras put Beltran on the Mets, I was thinking: “your not doing this kid any favors”. Putting him in the bright spotlight of New Jack City, where he has just done well in Houston. He would have been a cult hero in Houston, and would have been the one piece back then that might have propelled them into a few years of playoffs.
Yes, most of Scott’s clients get the top dollar. Unfortunately for smaller market teams, it worked out for Tex this time.
If Holliday comes in around 18 million per for 4-5 years, we might just be in the game. Depends on if we lose the Lowe contract or not.
What about a lineup in 2 years of Schafer, Chipper, Heyward, Holliday, McCann, Escobar, Freeman and Prado??
Substitute McLouth for Schafer, if you are a non believer.
PW Hjort: Let’s get a call into Franks’ voice mail……
Can’t say I have Wren’s number. I used to have Jeff Francoeur’s number. I called it 4-5 times with the intention of letting whoever answered the phone know that their number was entirely too easy to find online (I didn’t find it online, but someone did). Nobody ever answered.
ERA+ of 100 is average. Vazques ERA+ last 10 years is over 110, too lazy to figure it exactly, thus he is in fact an above average pitcher.
Also over the years Busch played very close to Turner in park effects. One year a bit better , one year a bit worse, so all that stuff of yous was was pretty silly too.
He only has one year at Coors and nolie already admitted that he did well there. It is still a haven, but not what it was before he got there.
Silly little fella.
Here’s a question for you park adjustment guys. What determines whether a ballpark is a hitter’s park or a pitcher’s park? I’ll assume (since I don’t care enough to look it up – I’ll you guys spout it off like you like to do), that it’s a sum of all of the AB’s in a particular park?
So what if a team has an incredibly inept lineup not capable of hitting HR or hitting for a high slugging and OPS total? Is that park known as a pitcher’s park then? If said team also has many good pitchers, would that also factor in?
The reason I ask is. Everybody mentions Turner Field as a hitter’s park. Which of course makes the pitchers look even better when they succeed, because after all, they’re succeeding in a hitter’s park.
Fine.
So then does that make the 2009 Atlanta Braves one of the worst power hitting teams of all time, since they couldn’t hit HR in a hitter’s park?
On the flip side, what if the Yankees lineup was the Padres lineup? If Arod, Tex, Jeter and Posada were knocking the ball all over Petco, racking up run after run, would it all of the sudden be known as a hitter’s paradise?
My point is that you guys spout park adjusted this or that, but haven’t really factored in why those parks are considered what they are.
It’s the classic case of the chicken and the egg to me.
Not saying that the ball doesn’t fly better at Coors than it does at Petco. But guys still have to be capable of hitting the ball, along with pitchers still being required to make pitches.
Defense can factor in too, can’t it? If there is a team that is lousy at catching and throwing the ball (not neccesarily errors), won’t that factor in to whether a park is deemed a hitter’s park or not?
After all, many Braves pitchers apparently “lucked out” by having Andruw in CF all those years, right?
But yeah. Vazquez was just unlucky. You’re right, and 30 other GM’s are wrong. You spout of me being too lazy to look up the stats. What about the other GM’s in baseball? If it was that plain as day, wouldn’t they ALL have been beating Kenny Williams’ door down trying to acquire Vazquez, with thoughts of being the team to finally change his luck?
How do you know? You work for the Braves? Do you work in their accounting department?
No, but I don’t need to. In addition to being a regular reader of DOB’s blogs and knowing that the Braves are a team with payroll constraints, I can also look up their payroll information at Cot’s Baseball Contracts (http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/), figure that they’ll be around the same $100 million mark that they have been for the last couple of seasons (though it could be higher, but probably by a few million), put two and two together, and realize that they probably won’t have the financial capabilities to add a player like Holliday.
Now, if they were to trade a big contract like Derek Lowe’s, it might be a possibility. But even then, it’s not a sure thing for at least two reasons: a) a Lowe trade obviously hasn’t happened yet, and b) if they were to trade Lowe, in order to have room for Holliday, they’d have to get a player or players in return that would take up hardly any of their payroll. Given that, I’m not so sure that the Braves are that desperate to trade Lowe — he’s not a Vernon Wells- or Milton Bradley-type player who is sucking a large portion of the payroll without giving the team much return. Yeah, Lowe didn’t have a great season, but he did win 15 games and pitched well for much of the year. He’s a good clubhouse figure with a strong work ethic, he’s never had health issues, and there’s reason to believe, based on his past performance, that he can rebound from last year’s poor performance.
Plus, that series of events — trading Lowe for a cheap player, and then hoping that Holliday is still available to sign for a price that works for the Braves — involves a lot of moving pieces, and not something that can happen just like that. To get Holliday, the Braves would have to enter into a bidding war, and they could only do that after moving a large chunk of payroll. That’s not the Braves’ style of operation — hasn’t been since Ted Turner owned the team, and it doesn’t appear to be going in that direction anytime soon.
Everybody mentions Turner Field as a hitter’s park. Which of course makes the pitchers look even better when they succeed, because after all, they’re succeeding in a hitter’s park NATE
Turner Field is not a hitters park idiot. It was the 5 best pitcher’s park in baseball last year and it usually plays pretty neutral, so right off the bat you are full of crap and it just goes on from there. Try to get at least something right.
And yes a pitcher can be lucky or unlucky most of his career. Marquis has been luckier than most, Vazquez has been unluckier than most. Anything is possible under a curve. Most events stay withing a few SD, but aberrations can and do happen,dude.
You are such a silly little fella so full of yourself.
“Also over the years Busch played very close to Turner in park effects.”Moby
That’s my point. Either a park is what it is. Or it’s not. But let me guess. The Boston Garden was more of a 3-pointer haven when Larry Bird was there, right?
If a park’s “effect value” is fluctuating from year to year, doesn’t that mean that the players that play the majority of their games in that park are either worse or better than in year’s past. Making that rating system a complete joke, imo.
Again, somebody just give me a straight answer. What’s the main factors in determining?
Let me see if I’ve got this system down cold. In 2003, when the Braves finished first in the NL in OPS, and 9th in overall team ERA, Turner Field was a hitter’s park?
But in 2002 when they finished 1st in ERA in the NL and 8th in OPS, it was more than likely considered a pitcher’s park?
Educate me and sell me on this rating system and it’s sure fire way of determing how the park adjusts (rather than the players playing in it change from year to year), rather than call me lazy for not looking it up.
Give me a reason to look it up. Until then, I’m going to go with ERA and OPS, and use my eyes to determine who looks good and who doesn’t, and use my eyes to tell me which park the ball seems to be jumping out of or dying on the warning track.
Here’s a question for you park adjustment guys. What determines whether a ballpark is a hitter’s park or a pitcher’s park? I’ll assume (since I don’t care enough to look it up – I’ll you guys spout it off like you like to do), that it’s a sum of all of the AB’s in a particular park?
So what if a team has an incredibly inept lineup not capable of hitting HR or hitting for a high slugging and OPS total? Is that park known as a pitcher’s park then? If said team also has many good pitchers, would that also factor in?
It compares a team’s home lines to there away lines over 5 years. If a team is incapable of slugging it will be reflected in both the home and away stats, thus negating whatever effect you’re trying to presumably argue it presents.
The reason I ask is. Everybody mentions Turner Field as a hitter’s park. Which of course makes the pitchers look even better when they succeed, because after all, they’re succeeding in a hitter’s park.
Well, most people who know what they’re talking about consider Turner Field basically neutral, maybe slightly favorable for pitchers. I’ve never heard a sane argument that states Turner Field is a hitters’ park.
On the flip side, what if the Yankees lineup was the Padres lineup? If Arod, Tex, Jeter and Posada were knocking the ball all over Petco, racking up run after run, would it all of the sudden be known as a hitter’s paradise?
No, because they would be hitting home runs at a higher rate outside of PETCO.
My point is that you guys spout park adjusted this or that, but haven’t really factored in why those parks are considered what they are.
Your lack of understand doesn’t mean everyone else experiences the same lack of understanding. WEAK argument.
It’s the classic case of the chicken and the egg to me.
Not saying that the ball doesn’t fly better at Coors than it does at Petco. But guys still have to be capable of hitting the ball, along with pitchers still being required to make pitches.
Defense can factor in too, can’t it? If there is a team that is lousy at catching and throwing the ball (not neccesarily errors), won’t that factor in to whether a park is deemed a hitter’s park or not?
Again, it’s relative to what the team does ELSEWHERE.
After all, many Braves pitchers apparently “lucked out” by having Andruw in CF all those years, right?</em?
They had him in CF when they were playing away from Turner Field/Fulton County Stadium, too.
But yeah. Vazquez was just unlucky. You’re right, and 30 other GM’s are wrong.
What do you mean the “other 30 GM’s are wrong”? Frank Wren gave up a handsome package of prospects to get a pitcher that he knew was going to give him what he did. Just because the other 29 GM’s were unwilling to surrender top prospects to get a valuable contract doesn’t mean they didn’t view the contract as valuable. Basically, you’re saying that only the Braves were after Vazquez. I don’t know if that’s true or not, but I doubt it. And if it is, it means Frank Wren was ahead of the curve, not that he stumbled on some luck. Either way, it isn’t much of a point.
as far as park adjusting, all you have to do is take an extreme example like the old Coors situation and see how much better hitters did there. Many times it was 100% or more better. There is no way that a sane reasonable person can not understand how that changed stats. it works the same way for pitchers N8.
There are other metrics, the data of which is taken from regular stats that show the same thing, that Javy has been an above average pitcher for 10 years straight. I simply tried to tie it to ERA since you seem only aware of that stat as a measurement.
You are too lazy to look anything up, all you want to do is argue your preconceived notions. And exactly where is it that you learned that no other GM was interested in Vazquez? I’d love to see some proof of that.
Alas, like all your other windy proclamations, it’s all just narrow minded and spurious.
Rant on bro
Really Moby? You’ve never heard anybody talking about since they’ve put up the hi-def scoreboard, the park plays smaller?
The gap in RCF is a rally killer, but the ball JUMPS out of that park to straight away LF and RF. Even to dead center there have been more balls hit off the base of the scoreboard or way over the wall in recent years.
But yeah. I’m full of myself. Keep spoutin’ moby. Just trying to educate myself on a system I’ve never bought into. To me it’s always been more black and white with hitting and pitching.
Pitchers that throw quality strikes, don’t walk people and don’t miss their target by two feet (especially after giving up walks), usually succeed on a regular basis.
Hitters that take the ball where it’s pitched, or patiently wait for a pitch to pull if that’s what they are predetermined to do, while fighting off tough pitches, usually get on base and succeed more consistently than guys with poor approaches.
No matter what park they play in. Sure the park, whether, teammates, umpires, illness, fatigue, injury, being hungover, fighting with their wife/girlfriend on the way to the park, nerves, pressure all factor in.
But ultimately a pitcher or a hitter makes their own luck over time.
Javier Vazquez has always (before last year) been victim to the big inning. 2 or 3 hits, and then BAM a 3-run HR. Strange how his luck always seemed to go that way, huh?
Might have never had anything to do with him making poor adjustments the 3rd time through the order, right? Maybe he’s gotten wiser in his later years. Maybe not.
I suppose you guys think that Francoeur has just been unlucky too, because pitchers just wouldn’t throw the ball two more feet towards the plate, where he could actually reach it?
Again. Just answer the simple question. If it’s such common knowledge to you guys that Vazquez has been unlucky all this time, why weren’t teams fighting over him when he demanded a trade from Arizona in 05? That would have seemed like the perfect time for the vultures to swoop in and make a run at such a good player with bad luck, not?
Anyways. I’m exhausted on this topic. Sad thing is, I want them to extend him because based on his past season, he looks like a good fit for the Braves, and I think he’d be more valuable over the next 3 years than Lowe and probably cost less or the same.
But you guys want to argue about how he’s been unlucky for a decade. Him, Lloyd Christmas and Harry Dunn. The three most unlucky SOB’s ever to walk the planet.
Don’t worry. One day they’ll catch their lucky break too. You just watch.
“It compares a team’s home lines to there away lines over 5 years.”P. W. Hjort
Thank the lord and baby Jesus!!! Somebody answered the damn question.
Thank you. That is EXACTLY what I was looking for. Couldn’t find that statement anywhere that I looked for a “definition” of what factors (or how long those factors) went into determining how a park plays.
That was the basis for my arguement. If it was from year to year, then it’s BS. But if it plays out over 5 years, that makes more sense.
You win the prize of me shutting up on this subject for the night. Congrats and goodnight.
“There is no way that a sane reasonable person can not understand how that changed stats. it works the same way for pitchers N8.”Moby
I understood it just fine. Just wanted somebody to explain how long of a time period was used to determine it. P. W. Hjort did that. In all that rambling of mine about how players changed from year to year, and what not, would it have been that hard for you to simply state that it is factored over a 5 year period?
You called me lazy for not looking it up. I’ll call you lazy for not answering the question.
Really Moby? You’ve never heard anybody talking about since they’ve put up the hi-def scoreboard, the park plays smaller? N8
it ranked as the 5th best pitchers park last year. That was extreme, but it certainly didn’t play smaller last year, it played bigger.
Here is a link to the ESPN park rankings over the last decade or so.
So he’s been substantially unlucky for 3 of the past 6 years. In 2008 his FIP was 0.86 points lower than his ERA. In 2006 his FIP was 0.90 points lower than his ERA. In 2005 his FIP was 0.46 points lower than his ERA. In 2009 his FIP was a mere 0.08 points lower than his phenomenal 2.87 ERA. In 2007 he posted a 3.74 ERA in the AL and a 3.92 FIP. In 2004 (behind inexplicably posting the 2nd lowest K rate in his career, the 3rd highest BB rate of his career, and the 3rd lowest K/BB ratio of his career) he posted a 4.91 ERA and a 4.83 FIP.
Every year he’s pitched well he’s gotten pretty unlucky. Every year he’s pitched badly his peripherals have aligned with his ERA. This is not a counter-intuitive concept or a particularly difficult one to grasp.
I looked for a “definition” of what factors (or how long those factors) went into determining how a park plays.
Well it’s important to always consider the source. Some places use 3-year factors, some use 5-year factors, some are stupid and use 1-year factors. It all depends on the source of the information.
“it ranked as the 5th best pitchers park last year. That was extreme, but it certainly didn’t play smaller last year, it played bigger.”Moby
I’m not really arguing anymore. Just discussing. But I have to comment on this comment, even though you are kind of disagreeing a bit with Turner Field’s ranking.
But that ranking and what went on with the Braves last year, is exactly my argument for the ranking system.
We had GREAT pitching last year. The pitching staff essentially allowed the same amount of runs on the road as at Turner Field (this is just total runs allowed, not ER – too lazy to not only look up, but type up all the detailed stats, so I’m going by runs to shorten it up).
On the road, the Braves allowed 323 runs, at home 318.
On the road, the Braves scored 403 runs and scored 332 at home. That’s almost a run a game more on the road. So I can see the gap there.
That’s where my dilemma with this rating system goes south as far as my belief in it goes. If Turner Field was that much of a pitcher’s park, shouldn’t the Braves staff have allowed much more runs at home?
I guess one could look at the game logs. Perhaps they had more home games early in the year before Hanson was called up, and before KK got in his groove he got into? I don’t know.
But to me it’s no more of an exact science than just looking at the numbers.
The Braves hitters could have had the same fate, after LaRoche was added maybe they played more road games and the big run totals skewed the stats? But that’s my point. Even in the middle of the 2009 season, the players creating those splits was constantly changing. Injuries and what not factored in. Guys that just flat out were having bad years (Schafer, KJ, Francoeur), possibly helped skew those numbers early in the year?
If the Braves pitching staff had had the same fate in terms of allowing more runs on the road, I’d buy it. But with that discrepancy, I’m not completely sold.
Sorry.
Anyhow. Either way I appreciate the “education” on the whole park adjustment thing. Just don’t try and sell me on sabermatics. LOL
I think I read that The Ted played more as a pitcher’s park in 2009 than all but four or five other parks. I think Busch was something of a pitcher’s park too, but then Jason wasn’t there last year.
Either way I appreciate the “education” on the whole park adjustment thing. Just don’t try and sell me on sabermatics. N8
That is too bad N8, because some of the individual sabermetric stats can give insights that traditional ones can’t. I think they should be wedded to the older ones, and all of them used as tools.
If Turner Field was that much of a pitcher’s park, shouldn’t the Braves staff have allowed much more runs at home?
I know what you’re saying. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you meant to conclude the sentence with “on the road” instead of “at home” (in which case the sentence would make logical sense, you’re a reasonable guy and I think you understand this.) But not necessarily, no. First of all, 1 year isn’t as big of a sample size as we’d like to have. In any case, Turner Field rates as average. One of the most, if not the most, neutral parks in baseball.
“Well it’s important to always consider the source. Some places use 3-year factors, some use 5-year factors, some are stupid and use 1-year factors. It all depends on the source of the information.”P. W. Hjort
That’s my point. I can buy that over a five year period, it might speak a little more truth to the matter. But on a year to year basis? I can’t buy that. Like Moby’s link to the ESPN page.
The Phillies had good hitters. That team actually scored more runs on the road as well. Yet everybody blames that “bandbox” for their offensive success. The pitchers barely allowed more runs at home (367 to 342).
Isn’t it possible that good teams from year to year, score more runs on average everywhere, and allow fewer runs no matter where they pitch? And when those teams stay together for an extended period of time (even meaning the 5 year period is skewed) the numbers aren’t an exact science? Or am I completely missing the boat on how it’s calculated.
For example. Without Zak Greinke, would the Kaufmann Stadium in KC have been considered more of a hitter’s park, if say Kyle Davies took most of his starts?
Either way I appreciate the “education” on the whole park adjustment thing. Just don’t try and sell me on sabermatics. LOL
Whether you like it or not, your questioning of peoples’ basic understanding of park adjustments is precisely in-line with the most basic sabermetric principle–to question commonplace thinking. Here’s what Bill James says:
Sabermetrics is descended from traditional sportswriting. Sportswriting consists of two types of things—reporting, and analysis. Sabermetrics came from that part of sportswriting which consists of analysis, argument, evaluation, opinion and bullshit. I can tell you very precisely when and how we parted ways with traditional analysis.
Sportswriters discuss a range of questions which are much the same from generation to generation. Who is the Most Valuable Player? Who should go into the Hall of Fame? Who will win the pennant? What factors are important in winning the pennant? If Boston won the pennant, why did they win it? If Kansas City finished last, why did they finish last? How has baseball changed over the last few years? Who is the best third baseman in baseball today? Who is better, Mike Lowell or Eric Chavez?
The questions that we deal with in our work are the same as the questions that are discussed by sports columnists and by radio talk show hosts every day. To the best of my knowledge, there is no difference whatsoever in the underlying issues that we discuss. The difference between us is very simple. Sportswriters always or almost always begin their analysis with a position on the issue. We always begin our analysis with the question itself.
If you find a sportswriter debating who should be the National League’s Most Valuable Player this season, his article will probably begin by asserting a position on the issue, and then will argue for that position. If you find 100 articles by sportswriters debating issues of this type, in all likelihood all 100 articles will do this.
What we do is simply to begin by asking “Who is the National League’s Most Valuable Player this season?” rather than to begin by stating that “Albert Pujols is the National League’s Most Valuable Player this season, and let me tell you why.” That’s all. That is the entire difference between sabermetrics and traditional sportswriting. It isn’t the use of statistics. It isn’t the use of formulas. It is merely the habit of beginning with a question, rather than beginning with an answer.
I support sabermetrics for one reason and one reason only. I like the idea of a society questioning commonplace groupthink. I like the idea of society yearning for data to back up their conclusions. I like the idea that society shouldn’t just accept something because idiot sportswriters say we should, without doing any real research. The quest for the truth (in baseball as well as in life) should be an empirical quest.
For example. Without Zak Greinke, would the Kaufmann Stadium in KC have been considered more of a hitter’s park, if say Kyle Davies took most of his starts?
No because Kyle Davies would be pitching at Kaufmann Stadium and elsewhere. If Greinke only pitched at Kaufmann Stadium or only pitched elsewhere that’s a different issue. But that doesn’t happen in absolutes. And if it does happen to a degree, the effect is largely obscured when your sample sizes are large enough. Say, 5 years.
P. W. Hjort, yes. I meant on the road, and I totally agree. That’s my point. One year is too small of a sample size to determine how a park plays, imo.
That was my whole argument when I didn’t know how long it was calculated over. But even then, the five years is kind of misleading.
Without buildings being torn down. Bleachers being opened up (or a new stadium being built across a parking lot like in Cincy a few years ago before Cinergy closed), wind off the lake blowing in or out like in Chicago, etc…..
Nothing should really ever change how a park plays, should it? I mean, technically 1 year, 5 years, or 20 years, shouldn’t Fulton County stadium have “played” the same during the entire time it was open? Why the fluctuation? The only logical answer to me is better or worse players.
The part that baffled me last year, was that most hitters (and some pitchers) play better at home. Whether it’s being at home with family and sleeping in their bed (being around their kids), or just being more familiar with how their park plays. But the Braves hitters were so bad at home and the team record at home showed it.
I would think that more often than not, except in the extreme instances of extreme hitter’s parks like Coors, or extreme pitcher’s parks like Petco, most teams hit better at home (and pitch better on the road in the case of the Rockies).
To me it’s just more elementary than that. Good hitters hit anywhere. Good pitchers can pitch anywhere. Remember Glavine’s success in Colorado? 13 career starts at Coors and his ERA was 3.68 – that has to be one of the best opponent’s ERA in that park. Maybe it’s because he had Andruw in CF covering all that ground? Maybe it’s because the thin air didn’t affect his change up style of pitching and location? But he was obviously geared to pitch there. Not sure how he would have done had he played for the Rockies for an extended period of time (ask Hampton LOL). But I suspect he would have been fine. Dude knew how to pitch.
Either way I appreciate the “education” on the whole park adjustment thing. Just don’t try and sell me on sabermatics.
Like it or not, your questioning of park effects is 100% in line with sabermetric philosophy. To quote Bill James:
Sabermetrics is descended from traditional sportswriting. Sportswriting consists of two types of things—reporting, and analysis. Sabermetrics came from that part of sportswriting which consists of analysis, argument, evaluation, opinion and bullshit. I can tell you very precisely when and how we parted ways with traditional analysis.
Sportswriters discuss a range of questions which are much the same from generation to generation. Who is the Most Valuable Player? Who should go into the Hall of Fame? Who will win the pennant? What factors are important in winning the pennant? If Boston won the pennant, why did they win it? If Kansas City finished last, why did they finish last? How has baseball changed over the last few years? Who is the best third baseman in baseball today? Who is better, Mike Lowell or Eric Chavez?
The questions that we deal with in our work are the same as the questions that are discussed by sports columnists and by radio talk show hosts every day. To the best of my knowledge, there is no difference whatsoever in the underlying issues that we discuss. The difference between us is very simple. Sportswriters always or almost always begin their analysis with a position on the issue. We always begin our analysis with the question itself.
If you find a sportswriter debating who should be the National League’s Most Valuable Player this season, his article will probably begin by asserting a position on the issue, and then will argue for that position. If you find 100 articles by sportswriters debating issues of this type, in all likelihood all 100 articles will do this.
What we do is simply to begin by asking “Who is the National League’s Most Valuable Player this season?” rather than to begin by stating that “Albert Pujols is the National League’s Most Valuable Player this season, and let me tell you why.” That’s all. That is the entire difference between sabermetrics and traditional sportswriting. It isn’t the use of statistics. It isn’t the use of formulas. It is merely the habit of beginning with a question, rather than beginning with an answer.
Sabermetrics is about questioning commonplace groupthink, not a set of component ERA formulas and BABIP calculations. That’s why I support sabermetrics, because I believe that the next generation of Americans should be raised with the belief that they shouldn’t accept any concept unless there is data to support it. They shouldn’t believe something because their parents did or because their teachers say so or because some idiot sportswriter says it’s true, they should believe things that are tried and true, tried with empirical evidence. The quest for the truth (in life, as well as in baseball) is an empirical one.
Remember Glavine’s success in Colorado? 13 career starts at Coors and his ERA was 3.68 – that has to be one of the best opponent’s ERA in that park. Maybe it’s because he had Andruw in CF covering all that ground? Maybe it’s because the thin air didn’t affect his change up style of pitching and location?
It’s probably just because of the fact that 13 starts isn’t nearly as big of a sample size as you’d like to evaluate a pitcher’s fundamental skills.
Always follow this rule: Take a 4-year sample size (2400 PA’s or 700 IP for a starter, 250 IP for a reliever) or the player’s entire career (whichever is smaller) when drawing conclusions about a player’s fundamental skills. Any smaller of a sample size and there’s too much statistical noise to extract any meaningful conclusions.
N8 (November 12th, 2009 2:29 am): “That’s where my dilemma with this rating system goes south as far as my belief in it goes. If Turner Field was that much of a pitcher’s park, shouldn’t the Braves staff have allowed much more runs at home?”
You gotta realize that the Braves were not the only team that played at the Ted last year (or the last 3 or 5 years) — their performance there compared to their performance away would constitute no more than 50% of the total data that would go into computing a park adjustment.
I think you answered your own question — “We had GREAT pitching last year.” Perhaps good enough to be less vulnerable to park factors than other teams’ pitching.
Also, the types of pitchers fielded by the Braves may have been individually less vulnerable to the Ted’s particular park factors than other teams’ types of pitchers.
N8 (November 12th, 2009 12:57 am): “so let me get this right. Because Delgado wasn’t born in the US. Was playing for a Canadian team at the time, and was upset about us using parts of his home country as a base, he protested God Bless America, and you’re OK with that.”
Oh, hell, yeah. I have my own reasons for objecting to it and its invasion of the national pastime. I also object to the near universal militarization of American civil society, but both of those are entirely different topics not to be discussed here.
“Yet I, as an American being offended by somebody making a TON of money playing a game based on “The American Dream” and capitalism at it’s finest, am “knocking down straw men”? “
Only in your head is a protest against American military adventurism interpreted as a protest against capitalism and “The American Dream”.
You wrote “One can only assume that to uphold his protest, he gave all of the money to his home country as a charity, that he made playing all baseball games outside of Canada and on US soil that summer, right?”
Yeah, the same way that one could assume that you yourself pay federal income taxes at a 100% rate after deductions.
That’s the straw man you’re knocking down — condemning someone for not taking some ridiculous action that only in your head he should. (And that you yourself never would, so add hypocrisy.)
Only in your head does any of that make any sense — you should have kept it there.
Daybed is right, and not to mention that we would still need a few bullpen arms and a first baseman as well. So Holliday does not fit into the payroll, not even if we shed Lowe’s contract.
O.J. (November 12, 2009 7:31 AM EST) Daybed is right, and not to mention that we would still need a few bullpen arms and a first baseman as well. So Holliday does not fit into the payroll, not even if we shed Lowe’s contract.
You say tomato, I show you that there is no tomato.
Name: 2010 Salary
Javier Vazquez $11,500,000
Tim Hudson $10,000,000
Kenshin Kawakami $7,333,333
Jair Jurrjens $400,000
Tommy Hanson $400,000
Reliever $5,000,000
Reliever $5,000,000
Peter Moylan $1,500,000
Eric O’Flaherty $400,000
Kris Medlen $400,000
Boone Logan $600,000
Craig Kimbrel $400,000
Brian McCann $5,666,666
First Baseman $7,250,000
Martin Prado $400,000
Yunel Escobar $400,000
Chipper Jones $13,000,000
Matt Holliday $17,500,000
Nate McLouth $5,000,000
Matt Diaz $3,000,000
David Ross $1,600,000
Omar Infante $1,850,000
Brooks Conrad $400,000
Brandon Jones $400,000
Jason Heyward $400,000
That’s spending $10 million on the bullpen, $7.25 million on 1B, and $17.5 million on Holliday and the number still adds up to less than $100 million.
Some of your figures are off, some higher and some lower than what they really are. Jurrjens made $450,000 in ‘09 and he is surely to get a raise on that. Logan made more than what you have there. And I just dont see Heyward, Brandon Jones and Conrad coming off the bench like that. And that is if we can even move Lowe’s contract to make room for Holliday. And all that adds up to 98.9 million, just a tad under 100. And unless they sign someone like Russell Branyan to take over first base, you can forget 7.25 million there as well. Theres your tomato.
Heres what I got with possible raises and stuff and if we can trade Lowe
Javier Vazquez $11,500,000
Tim Hudson $10,000,000
Kenshin Kawakami $6,667,000
Jair Jurrjens $800,000
Tommy Hanson $500,000
Reliever $5,000,000
Reliever $5,000,000
Peter Moylan $1,500,000
Eric O’Flaherty $500,000
Kris Medlen $500,000
Boone Logan $600,000
Manny Acosta $475,000
Brian McCann $5,500,000
First Baseman $7,250,000
Martin Prado $600,000
Yunel Escobar $700,000
Chipper Jones $13,000,000
Matt Holliday $17,500,000
Nate McLouth $4,500,000
Matt Diaz $2,000,000
David Ross $1,600,000
Omar Infante $2,250,000
Brooks Conrad $400,000
Brandon Jones $400,000
Jason Heyward $400,000
Bringing that total to 99.14 million, and I seriously doubt that Heyward and B. Jones is going to be on the opening day roster. So raise that a few more million.
Lowe can be moved along with his entire contract. He’s got an excellent track record for winning games year in and year out, stays off of the DL (and has throughout his career) and pitches 200 innings (or damned close to it) every year. $15 mil is really not that huge a contract in the scheme of good pitching. (LEW)
OK, maybe this is going to be harder than I thought. {:
Saw this from Ken Rosenthal’s blog on foxsports.com
“In the Braves’ perfect world, they would obtain a right-handed slugger in his prime, someone like Twins right fielder Michael Cuddyer, who is not available.
Such players are in short supply, and the Braves are unlikely to make runs at the top free-agent hitters, Matt Holliday and Jason Bay.
Instead, they are kicking around a variety of lesser options, including the following:
Marlon Byrd, free agent: Coming off a career-high 20-homer, 89-RBI season, he is expected to be targeted by the Cubs, who could reunite him with Rudy Jaramillo, his hitting coach from the Rangers.
Xavier Nady, free agent: The Braves tried to acquire him when he was with the Pirates, but Nady is more of a complementary type than a middle-of-the-order threat, and is coming off his second Tommy John surgery.
Mike Cameron, free agent: Lives in Atlanta, wants to play in Atlanta, but is not high on the Braves’ list of priorities.
Dan Uggla, Marlins. Like the Red Sox, the Braves have pondered the idea of trading for the second baseman and playing him in left field.
David DeJesus, Royals: Not right-handed and not a slugger, but a player the Braves have liked in the past”.
My opinion, I have a hard time believing these are the players the Braves are considering.
The fact that Wagner required the Red Sox to pledge NOT to pick up his $10 mill option for 2010 before he was traded is probably some indication of how much he and his agent believe he can get on the open market (DOB)
My recollection from when the deal went down between the Mets and the Red Sox was that Wagner wanted this “pledge” from the Red Sox because if he’s going to pitch this year it has to be for a team that will let him close. Clearly that wouldn’t happen with the Sox (barring and injury). He didn’t want to get boxed in there. I don’t think it’s as much the money. He was willing to go to the Sox to prove he still had stuff in big games against elite guys – he proved that imo. Now he wants to close again only. He publicly stated that his interest in continuing to pitch is to increase his saves number in the hopes of making the HOF. Sounds like a very self serving statement but I give the guy credit for admitting it. No bull from him. If teams have a problem with that, don’t sign him and he’ll stay home. I know he comes off as an ass sometimes but he’s really a stand up guy. Doesn’t hide or shrink from anything. I grew to respect him more than I did before he pitched for the Mets.
That said, I doubt he’ll accept a deal with the Braves to share the closer duties with Gonzo or Soriano. The good news is if Cox tells Wagner he’ll close, Wagner will believe Cox for sure.
And it’s starting to the fun time of the year when you can log-in multiple times a day and spill your coffee laughing at the posts. It’s just like Christmas on here ,presents, promises of presents, dreams, laughter, friends and family telling big tells, just plain fun and I can’t wait to read some of the posts that will surely bring me joy.
O.J. (November 12, 2009 8:23 AM EST) Some of your figures are off, some higher and some lower than what they really are.
Actually, McLouth’s salary is $500,000 too high and Kawakami’s is $0.666666 million too high and Tim Hudson’s is $1 million too high, yes. Also, I made a mistake WRT Omar Infante’s 2010 salary (I listed his 2009 salary which is ~$400,000 off).
Jurrjens made $450,000 in ‘09 and he is surely to get a raise on that.
You couldn’t possibly be pickier. He’s under team control, year to year, as a pre-arb player. If he gets any type of raise it isn’t going to be a significant one.
Logan made more than what you have there.
No he didn’t. He made $427,500 last season. The $600,000 was an estimate of what he’ll make in arbitration. Your argument is a lot more convincing if you take the trouble to look it up and replace “more than what you have there” with an actual number. Of course, not here, because what you said is wrong, but in the future look it up instead of talking out of your rear.
And I just dont see Heyward, Brandon Jones and Conrad coming off the bench like that.
Heyward, no. I just put him there to demonstrate the club has the ability to call him or Schafer up whenever they want. Why wouldn’t B. Jones and Conrad come off the bench? Even if they don’t and the organization is signing someone like Eric Bruntlett, it’s not important. The finances are, and the club isn’t likely to commit an abundance of financial resources to that area of the bench.
And that is if we can even move Lowe’s contract to make room for Holliday.
That was the original premise, yes.
And all that adds up to 98.9 million, just a tad under 100.
This is a whole new type of fallacy and I don’t know what to call it yet. I’ll get back to you.
Theres your tomato.
Thanks for playing along, at least.
Anyway, here’s the updated salaries with correct information (I’ve entered all the 2nd+ year pre-arb players at $500,000 just to be safe). I’ve bumped the 1B’s salary up to $8,000,000, Kawakami’s down to $6,666,667, McLouth’s down to $4,500,000, and Tim Hudson’s down to $9,000,000.
Name: 2010 Salary
Javier Vazquez $11,500,000
Tim Hudson $9,000,000
Kenshin Kawakami $6,666,666
Jair Jurrjens $500,000
Tommy Hanson $500,000
Reliever $5,000,000
Reliever $5,000,000
Peter Moylan $1,500,000
Eric O’Flaherty $500,000
Kris Medlen $500,000
Boone Logan $600,000
Craig Kimbrel $400,000
Brian McCann $5,666,666
First Baseman $8,000,000
Martin Prado $500,000
Yunel Escobar $500,000
Chipper Jones $13,000,000
Matt Holliday $17,500,000
Nate McLouth $4,500,000
Matt Diaz $3,000,000
David Ross $1,600,000
Omar Infante $2,225,000
Brooks Conrad $400,000
Brandon Jones $400,000
Jason Heyward $400,000
Total $99,358,332
I’ll say it again. You say tomato. I show you that there is no tomato.
P.S. – I see your new post. Why have you given rather sizable raises to all of the pre-arb players? They have no leverage to get raises. They’re usually renewed at close to league minimum.
As for Lowe to the Yanks. Not an inkling of that up this way. They’re trying to sign Pettitte to one more year and if that doesn’t work out they’ll woo Lackey. Remember they have Wang in the system too. Just doesn’t make sense for them to take the $45 mil risk with so many other less expensive options. Plus Cashman already said Joba and Hughes will start again next year.
As for the Angels – well let’s just say Lowe doesn’t appear to have what it takes to pitch in the AL. I mean look at what the White Sox GM said to DOB about Vasquez in the AL versus the NL. And he was lights out in the NL this year. Where would that put Lowe on an AL depth chart?
I expect to see Mr. Lowe toeing the rubber at the Ted this spring.
BTW- I should post some Mets thoughts. If the Mets don’t go out and get a rock solid #2 this off season than it’s a bust. I know they’re kicking the tires on a big bat, but they need a proven #2 starter badly. Short of that they won’t make up enough ground on the Phils and possibly lose some to the Braves and Marlins depending on their off season dealings.
I had a dream last night that Matt Diaz was traded to the Nats for two players. I hope it was a result of bad pizza and not a glimps into the future. Can’t get rid of Matty Baseball!!!
Morning all. Expecting to get a Tim Hudson announcement at any time today….
I was too tired to get the laptop out when I finally got home late last night, after landing in Atlanta, working at airport and going straight to a friend’s house and then to the Monsters of Folk show. Came home and watched maybe the best episode ever of Sons of Anarchy, then fell asleep in recliner.
As for the Monsters of Folk show, if you get a chance you gotta go see this concert. One of the three or four best shows I’ve seen this year, nearly three hours (including encores) of terrific music. As good as the album is (and it’s very good), the band is far, far better live.
Really, I can’t say enough good things about the live performance of best supergroup of my lifetime (Traveling Wilburys were great; this is better.)
Conor Oberst, M. Ward, Jim James, Mike Mogis … the whole group rocked and rolled, soared on the ballads and the many harder tunes alike (and the harder tunes became pretty fierce live). And they all looked like they were having a blast, particularly Oberst, who was like a kid jumping around up there, climbing atop the drum kit while playing guitar, etc.
Jim James’ voice might be the coolest, most unique voice in rock.
OJ-If Heyward and Brandon JOnes are not going to be on the opening day lineup and are both making $400,000, how does their not being on the roster equate to a “few million more” savings? Even artist’s math doesn’t come up with that figure.
Don’t dismiss that Uggla-to-left-field rumor. It’s a legit possibility.
And I’m not sure who the Marlins would want back, but could include Kelly Johnson. I say that because Fredi always liked the guy. Kelly also has a .319 average and .975 OPS in 30 games at the stadium formerly known as Joe Robbie (and Pro Player … and Dolphin … )
I wouldn’t mind Uggla in LF, but I don’t want him if he is going to be at 2nd or 1st. I could take him in LF though. That actually makes him look appealing.
Does he have any stock at 3rd? I know he isn’t swift at 2nd, but to me 3rd could be a better fit for him and be a future replacement for Chipper.
I’m sure this has been discussed. Is it possible that we could trade Lowe for an expensive right-handed power hitter who maybe had a less than great 2009? If we did so, then the deal would be revenue neutral to Atlanta and maybe we could sign Vazquez for the long term.
And I’m not sure who the Marlins would want back, but could include Kelly Johnson.
DOB, wouldn’t the fact that Kelly is also due for an arbitration raise prevent the Marlins from wanting him? Or is it due to the fact that even with the raise he’ll be making so much less than Uggla, and he’d likely be starting with the Marlins?
I’m sure this has been discussed. Is it possible that we could trade Lowe for an expensive right-handed power hitter who maybe had a less than great 2009? (Space Monkey)
I guess the Marlins are cheap enough to trade one of their power hitters within the division. Isn’t Uggla due to get a raise? Well, he’s definitely right handed & has some pop. Just grab a beer & watch this guy’s adventures in LF next year if Atlanta does get him. Or, maybe he could turn out to be a better OF than 2nd baseman.
I say that because Fredi always liked the guy. Kelly also has a .319 average and .975 OPS in 30 games at the stadium formerly known as Joe Robbie (and Pro PlayerStadium) DOB
Don’t forget LandShark Stadium. Isn’t that some kind of Annheiser/Busch product?
Let’s be honest here. If Minaya made this move you guys would be all over him. Just sayin. – Anders
Yeah, I’ve got to agree with you there Anders. I’m honestly hoping for a better solution for the Braves, but if they do make this move I’m more likely to think it’s smart than if the Mets made the exact same move. Just years of conditioning myself that way I guess
P.W. Look, lets just agree that we would have to get rid of Lowe before any of this talk goes down. I did look up the numbers but entered them wrong. Either way, we wont know the payroll and what the players will make until that time comes, so until then we are just making guesses on the non arb players. We shall see what happens this winter, we shall see.
I’m sure this has been discussed. Is it possible that we could trade Lowe for an expensive right-handed power hitter who maybe had a less than great 2009? (Space Monkey)
Like who?
I think he is referring to the Tigers LFer Maglio Ordonez.
It’s official – the Braves have finalized a three-year contract extension with pitcher Tim Hudson, a deal that includes a fourth-year option for 2013. It’s believed to be worth close to $9 million per season.
Hudson, 34, went 2-1 with a 3.61 ERA in seven late-season starts for the Braves in 2009 after a year-long recovery from ligament-transplant elbow surgery.
The former 20-game winner has a 148-78 record and 3.49 ERA in 11 seasons with the Braves and Oakland Athletics, including 56-39 with a 3.77 ERA since being traded to Atlanta before the 2005 season
With Hudson back, the Braves have a surplus of starting pitchers and will likely step up efforts to trade one from the veteran trio of Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez or Kenshin Kawakami.
Lowe would presumably be the most challenging to move, since he has three years and $45 million left on his contract and is coming off one of his worst seasons, which included a 4.67 ERA and only 111 strikeouts in 194-2/3 innings.
Vazquez, who had one of the best seasons by any major league pitcher, is owed $11.5 million in 2010 before becoming eligible for free agency. The Braves would prefer to keep him, but he might be the only one of the three older pitchers they could trade and get top young talent back in return.
The Braves want to add a right-handed power hitter, and Vazquez is attractive enough to possibly bring a power bat in return.
Regardless of who’s traded, the Braves figure to have a strong rotation featuring Hudson, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson.
Hudson’s .655 winning percentage ranks 12th in major league history among pitchers with at least 200 decisions, and fourth among active pitchers, behind Pedro Martinez (.687), Roy Oswalt (.662) and Roy Halladay (.661).
Hudson has a 121-5 record in games in which he received four or more support runs, and 106-2 when he’s been provided with a lead of three runs or more. His ratio of .72 home runs allowed per nine innings pitched ranks third among active pitchers, behind Mariano Rivera (.50) and Brandon Webb (.63).
DOB…hope that 4th year is a club option and not mutual option.LOL…
On MLB Network Hot Stove last night, Ripken and crew opined that Uggla was pretty much a sure bet to be traded. Ditto the Gonzalez from the Padres. They guessed Gonzalez had a good chance to end up at Boston but mentioned many teams where Uggla could land. Braves were mentioned. It would be nice to have Uggla in LF with around 30 homers instead of consistently killing the Braves on another team.
CMA awards show was stellar. Jennifer Nettles simply stole the night. Wow what a voice. Couldn’t help but think she is channeling a country version of Janis Joplin. Simply the best singer on that stage last night and it wasn’t close. The only negative was the Taylor Swift awards. Really, Swift entertainer of the year over Paisley or Urban? Can’t buy that one – especially after that gosh-awful show opening song. Props also to the Zac Brown Band and Lady Antebellum for solid performances.
Lowe can be moved along with his entire contract. He’s got an excellent track record for winning games year in and year out, stays off of the DL (and has throughout his career) and pitches 200 innings (or damned close to it) every year. $15 mil is really not that huge a contract in the scheme of good pitching. (LEW)
Lowe would presumably be the most challenging to, since he has three years and $45 million left on his contract and is coming off one of his worst seasons, which included a 4.67 ERA and only 111 strikeouts in 194-2/3 innings. (DOB)
A clash of the Titans! Someone get the cage and let’s settle this once and for all!!!!
Good to hear that Hudson is official. Three years including this year plus an option year is great for the Braves and good for Hudson, too, who seems to really value staying “home” more than some guys who give it lip service and then take a hike.
This gives Braves and Wren a strong trading position and a lot of flexibility this off-season. I’m really looking forward to Vazquez, Hudson, Hanson, Jurrjens, and whoever. I like Uggla if he doesn’t do too much damage in left field and as long as it doesn’t cost us Javy. Lowe or KK plus Kelly works for me though the Braves certainly would have to eat a lot of Lowe’s salary under that scenario.
In 2004 when Uggla played for El Paso, Arizona’s AA team, he played 20 games in the outfield and only commited 1 error. He has also played some 1st base as well in the minors, maybe they could put him there and sign Mike Cameron for left field or center and move Nate to left.
Key, as PW has stated, he has played the outfield and some 1st base. Maybe the Braves move him there?? Who knows. Just the fact that they keep mentioning people for Left Field makes me think they might already have a deal in place with Adam. But I could be overlooking into things.
“Hudson has a 121-5 record in games in which he received four or more support runs, and 106-2 when he’s been provided with a lead of three runs or more.”
I’ve read it about 10 times now. Does this make sense?
No way the Marlins would want any of the three starters we want to trade. They would most likely want KJ and some prospects because the whole idea for them is to cut payroll. thats what the marlins do. They rely on youth.
18 wheels…I see no scenario where Uggla, if acquired, starts at 2nd over Prado unless an injury should occur at some point. LF may not be that big a reach and Uggla’s bat should compensate for early struggles defensively.
[...] Eastern -Tim Hudson’s three year, $27 million extension has been finalized, says the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Now the AJC asks about what the team will do with Javier Vazquez. I say if they can trade Derek [...]
3,192 comments Add your comment
N8
November 12th, 2009
12:57 am
Whatever nolie. I don’t need to look up the park adjustments to know that a guy like Marquis had a tougher go of it at old Busch Stadium, Wrigley and Coors, than Vazquez did in Yankee Stadium, at the BOB and in Cellular Field.
You think Vazquez has been above average for over a decade. Fine. One team jumped at him last year. Perhaps the other GM’s should have been made aware of the park adjusted ERA, huh?
Random, so let me get this right. Because Delgado wasn’t born in the US. Was playing for a Canadian team at the time, and was upset about us using parts of his home country as a base, he protested God Bless America, and you’re OK with that.
Yet I, as an American being offended by somebody making a TON of money playing a game based on “The American Dream” and capitalism at it’s finest, am “knocking down straw men”?
Why is he allowed to protest God Bless America, and I’m not allowed to protest Carlos Delgado protesting God Bless America?
As an American, that offended me. That simple. Don’t hate the guy, and stated that that is what is great about America, is that you are entitled the freedom to do so.
Was making a sarcastic joke about him being upset at America, but pocketing money on the American Past time. Really nothing more.
But you can call me the Crow from now on if it makes you feel any beter.
P. W. Hjort
November 12th, 2009
12:59 am
Whatever nolie. I don’t need to look up the park adjustments to know that a guy like Marquis had a tougher go of it at old Busch Stadium, Wrigley and Coors, than Vazquez did in Yankee Stadium, at the BOB and in Cellular Field.
You think Vazquez has been above average for over a decade. Fine. One team jumped at him last year. Perhaps the other GM’s should have been made aware of the park adjusted ERA, huh?
Why don’t you, instead of continuing to spout bullshit, look up some component ERA metrics. Is it that hard>?
Daybed Wagmoe
November 12th, 2009
1:03 am
PWH — At 12:56am, you conveniently leave out the little, tiny matter that DOB and others here have pointed out — that bit about the contract that Holliday will command as the leading free agent on the market. Sure, Holliday can put up the numbers and provide the offensive fire-power that the Braves need in the middle of their lineup. He’d make the lineup that much better and has the potential to help in leading the Braves back to the playoffs.
But in baseball, it’s all about the dollar, and the Braves cannot realistically insert him in their lineup without signing him to a fat, long-term contract that would undoubtedly prevent them from including the other necessary pieces to make that playoff run. I’m sure that Frank Wren and Bobby Cox would love to have a bat like Matt Holliday in this team’s lineup, but the fact is that the Braves don’t have the resources to make it so.
P. W. Hjort
November 12th, 2009
1:05 am
Whatever nolie. I don’t need to look up the park adjustments to know that a guy like Marquis had a tougher go of it at old Busch Stadium, Wrigley and Coors, than Vazquez did in Yankee Stadium, at the BOB and in Cellular Field.
You think Vazquez has been above average for over a decade. Fine. One team jumped at him last year. Perhaps the other GM’s should have been made aware of the park adjusted ERA, huh?
Why don’t you, instead of continuing to spout BS, look up some component ERA metrics. Is it that hard>?
All you have to do is go to http://www.hardballtimes.com/ and look at his FIP and xFIP or go to http://www.statcorner.com/ and look at his tRA. This argument wouldn’t even be an argument if you’d just do a tiny bit of research.
I don’t even know what the original argument was, I didn’t keep up, but the truth isn’t that hard to spot. He had been a historically unlucky pitcher. He has always been much better than his ERA (ERA fluctuates much more than fundamental skills), and if 2009 isn’t a perfect representation of his true skills, it’s not far off at all. That’s it. There’s not really much more to discuss.
P. W. Hjort
November 12th, 2009
1:07 am
I’m sure that Frank Wren and Bobby Cox would love to have a bat like Matt Holliday in this team’s lineup, but the fact is that the Braves don’t have the resources to make it so.
How do you know? You work for the Braves? Do you work in their accounting department?
nolie
November 12th, 2009
1:10 am
Do you ever get to see the minor-league teams play? (PW)
not this year at all. a few times last year.a few dozen times the year B4 that, and from 05 or 04 Iand years b4 that I would spend a couple months each summer visiting 2 or 3 teams. Health/finances just not up to it any more.
Bay Area Steve
November 12th, 2009
1:11 am
Always P.Dub. What ya need?
Wayne in Utah
November 12th, 2009
1:15 am
Holliday would be the perfect fit for our Braves. Like PW says, he is the ideal acquisition, if money were not the object, that is.
Holliday is also more of a gap hitter than a pull hitter, so Turner would not hurt him much, if any.
Now, will the bidding be in the area where we can be competitive? Is he another Tex, just going to take the highest offer, regardless of the circumstances. Never mind what situation might be able to put him in more post seasons (hint, hint, we have some great pitching!). Nor which team would he fit perfectly on.
I remember thinking when Boras put Beltran on the Mets, I was thinking: “your not doing this kid any favors”. Putting him in the bright spotlight of New Jack City, where he has just done well in Houston. He would have been a cult hero in Houston, and would have been the one piece back then that might have propelled them into a few years of playoffs.
Yes, most of Scott’s clients get the top dollar. Unfortunately for smaller market teams, it worked out for Tex this time.
If Holliday comes in around 18 million per for 4-5 years, we might just be in the game. Depends on if we lose the Lowe contract or not.
What about a lineup in 2 years of Schafer, Chipper, Heyward, Holliday, McCann, Escobar, Freeman and Prado??
Substitute McLouth for Schafer, if you are a non believer.
PW Hjort: Let’s get a call into Franks’ voice mail……
P. W. Hjort
November 12th, 2009
1:17 am
BAS -
Always P.Dub. What ya need?
Need to know there’s someone there ready for a semi-rational, late-night, alcohol-induced discussion.
nolie -
Health/finances just not up to it any more.
Understood.
Wayne in Utah
November 12th, 2009
1:20 am
nolie
You didn’t get your stimulus bail-out yet? (still watching the mail every day for mine too!)
P. W. Hjort
November 12th, 2009
1:22 am
Let’s get a call into Franks’ voice mail……
Can’t say I have Wren’s number. I used to have Jeff Francoeur’s number. I called it 4-5 times with the intention of letting whoever answered the phone know that their number was entirely too easy to find online (I didn’t find it online, but someone did). Nobody ever answered.
Moby Grape
November 12th, 2009
1:23 am
NATE
ERA+ of 100 is average. Vazques ERA+ last 10 years is over 110, too lazy to figure it exactly, thus he is in fact an above average pitcher.
Also over the years Busch played very close to Turner in park effects. One year a bit better , one year a bit worse, so all that stuff of yous was was pretty silly too.
He only has one year at Coors and nolie already admitted that he did well there. It is still a haven, but not what it was before he got there.
Silly little fella.
N8
November 12th, 2009
1:27 am
Unlucky for 11 years, huh? OK.
Here’s a question for you park adjustment guys. What determines whether a ballpark is a hitter’s park or a pitcher’s park? I’ll assume (since I don’t care enough to look it up – I’ll you guys spout it off like you like to do), that it’s a sum of all of the AB’s in a particular park?
So what if a team has an incredibly inept lineup not capable of hitting HR or hitting for a high slugging and OPS total? Is that park known as a pitcher’s park then? If said team also has many good pitchers, would that also factor in?
The reason I ask is. Everybody mentions Turner Field as a hitter’s park. Which of course makes the pitchers look even better when they succeed, because after all, they’re succeeding in a hitter’s park.
Fine.
So then does that make the 2009 Atlanta Braves one of the worst power hitting teams of all time, since they couldn’t hit HR in a hitter’s park?
On the flip side, what if the Yankees lineup was the Padres lineup? If Arod, Tex, Jeter and Posada were knocking the ball all over Petco, racking up run after run, would it all of the sudden be known as a hitter’s paradise?
My point is that you guys spout park adjusted this or that, but haven’t really factored in why those parks are considered what they are.
It’s the classic case of the chicken and the egg to me.
Not saying that the ball doesn’t fly better at Coors than it does at Petco. But guys still have to be capable of hitting the ball, along with pitchers still being required to make pitches.
Defense can factor in too, can’t it? If there is a team that is lousy at catching and throwing the ball (not neccesarily errors), won’t that factor in to whether a park is deemed a hitter’s park or not?
After all, many Braves pitchers apparently “lucked out” by having Andruw in CF all those years, right?
But yeah. Vazquez was just unlucky. You’re right, and 30 other GM’s are wrong. You spout of me being too lazy to look up the stats. What about the other GM’s in baseball? If it was that plain as day, wouldn’t they ALL have been beating Kenny Williams’ door down trying to acquire Vazquez, with thoughts of being the team to finally change his luck?
Wayne in Utah
November 12th, 2009
1:29 am
I thought I already splained all the Vazquez/Lowe stuff to yous guys. Caintchu read?
Daybed Wagmoe
November 12th, 2009
1:30 am
How do you know? You work for the Braves? Do you work in their accounting department?
No, but I don’t need to. In addition to being a regular reader of DOB’s blogs and knowing that the Braves are a team with payroll constraints, I can also look up their payroll information at Cot’s Baseball Contracts (http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/), figure that they’ll be around the same $100 million mark that they have been for the last couple of seasons (though it could be higher, but probably by a few million), put two and two together, and realize that they probably won’t have the financial capabilities to add a player like Holliday.
Now, if they were to trade a big contract like Derek Lowe’s, it might be a possibility. But even then, it’s not a sure thing for at least two reasons: a) a Lowe trade obviously hasn’t happened yet, and b) if they were to trade Lowe, in order to have room for Holliday, they’d have to get a player or players in return that would take up hardly any of their payroll. Given that, I’m not so sure that the Braves are that desperate to trade Lowe — he’s not a Vernon Wells- or Milton Bradley-type player who is sucking a large portion of the payroll without giving the team much return. Yeah, Lowe didn’t have a great season, but he did win 15 games and pitched well for much of the year. He’s a good clubhouse figure with a strong work ethic, he’s never had health issues, and there’s reason to believe, based on his past performance, that he can rebound from last year’s poor performance.
Plus, that series of events — trading Lowe for a cheap player, and then hoping that Holliday is still available to sign for a price that works for the Braves — involves a lot of moving pieces, and not something that can happen just like that. To get Holliday, the Braves would have to enter into a bidding war, and they could only do that after moving a large chunk of payroll. That’s not the Braves’ style of operation — hasn’t been since Ted Turner owned the team, and it doesn’t appear to be going in that direction anytime soon.
Moby Grape
November 12th, 2009
1:37 am
Everybody mentions Turner Field as a hitter’s park. Which of course makes the pitchers look even better when they succeed, because after all, they’re succeeding in a hitter’s park NATE
Turner Field is not a hitters park idiot. It was the 5 best pitcher’s park in baseball last year and it usually plays pretty neutral, so right off the bat you are full of crap and it just goes on from there. Try to get at least something right.
And yes a pitcher can be lucky or unlucky most of his career. Marquis has been luckier than most, Vazquez has been unluckier than most. Anything is possible under a curve. Most events stay withing a few SD, but aberrations can and do happen,dude.
You are such a silly little fella so full of yourself.
N8
November 12th, 2009
1:42 am
“Also over the years Busch played very close to Turner in park effects.” Moby
That’s my point. Either a park is what it is. Or it’s not. But let me guess. The Boston Garden was more of a 3-pointer haven when Larry Bird was there, right?
If a park’s “effect value” is fluctuating from year to year, doesn’t that mean that the players that play the majority of their games in that park are either worse or better than in year’s past. Making that rating system a complete joke, imo.
Again, somebody just give me a straight answer. What’s the main factors in determining?
Let me see if I’ve got this system down cold. In 2003, when the Braves finished first in the NL in OPS, and 9th in overall team ERA, Turner Field was a hitter’s park?
But in 2002 when they finished 1st in ERA in the NL and 8th in OPS, it was more than likely considered a pitcher’s park?
Educate me and sell me on this rating system and it’s sure fire way of determing how the park adjusts (rather than the players playing in it change from year to year), rather than call me lazy for not looking it up.
Give me a reason to look it up. Until then, I’m going to go with ERA and OPS, and use my eyes to determine who looks good and who doesn’t, and use my eyes to tell me which park the ball seems to be jumping out of or dying on the warning track.
P. W. Hjort
November 12th, 2009
1:43 am
Unlucky for 11 years, huh? OK.
Gambler’s fallacy
Here’s a question for you park adjustment guys. What determines whether a ballpark is a hitter’s park or a pitcher’s park? I’ll assume (since I don’t care enough to look it up – I’ll you guys spout it off like you like to do), that it’s a sum of all of the AB’s in a particular park?
So what if a team has an incredibly inept lineup not capable of hitting HR or hitting for a high slugging and OPS total? Is that park known as a pitcher’s park then? If said team also has many good pitchers, would that also factor in?
It compares a team’s home lines to there away lines over 5 years. If a team is incapable of slugging it will be reflected in both the home and away stats, thus negating whatever effect you’re trying to presumably argue it presents.
The reason I ask is. Everybody mentions Turner Field as a hitter’s park. Which of course makes the pitchers look even better when they succeed, because after all, they’re succeeding in a hitter’s park.
Well, most people who know what they’re talking about consider Turner Field basically neutral, maybe slightly favorable for pitchers. I’ve never heard a sane argument that states Turner Field is a hitters’ park.
On the flip side, what if the Yankees lineup was the Padres lineup? If Arod, Tex, Jeter and Posada were knocking the ball all over Petco, racking up run after run, would it all of the sudden be known as a hitter’s paradise?
No, because they would be hitting home runs at a higher rate outside of PETCO.
My point is that you guys spout park adjusted this or that, but haven’t really factored in why those parks are considered what they are.
Your lack of understand doesn’t mean everyone else experiences the same lack of understanding. WEAK argument.
It’s the classic case of the chicken and the egg to me.
Not saying that the ball doesn’t fly better at Coors than it does at Petco. But guys still have to be capable of hitting the ball, along with pitchers still being required to make pitches.
Defense can factor in too, can’t it? If there is a team that is lousy at catching and throwing the ball (not neccesarily errors), won’t that factor in to whether a park is deemed a hitter’s park or not?
Again, it’s relative to what the team does ELSEWHERE.
After all, many Braves pitchers apparently “lucked out” by having Andruw in CF all those years, right?</em?
They had him in CF when they were playing away from Turner Field/Fulton County Stadium, too.
But yeah. Vazquez was just unlucky. You’re right, and 30 other GM’s are wrong.
What do you mean the “other 30 GM’s are wrong”? Frank Wren gave up a handsome package of prospects to get a pitcher that he knew was going to give him what he did. Just because the other 29 GM’s were unwilling to surrender top prospects to get a valuable contract doesn’t mean they didn’t view the contract as valuable. Basically, you’re saying that only the Braves were after Vazquez. I don’t know if that’s true or not, but I doubt it. And if it is, it means Frank Wren was ahead of the curve, not that he stumbled on some luck. Either way, it isn’t much of a point.
Andrew in P-tang
November 12th, 2009
1:50 am
Did anyone see about a year ago,Ted Turner said he wanted to buy the Braves back? He was on The Today Show talking about it.
Wayne in Utah
November 12th, 2009
1:56 am
Andrew
Didn’t you hear? Ted bought back the Braves last year during the holidays! We are going to WIN and WIN BIG in 2010!!!
Go Ted! Go Braves!
(must be bedtime)
Moby Grape
November 12th, 2009
1:58 am
as far as park adjusting, all you have to do is take an extreme example like the old Coors situation and see how much better hitters did there. Many times it was 100% or more better. There is no way that a sane reasonable person can not understand how that changed stats. it works the same way for pitchers N8.
There are other metrics, the data of which is taken from regular stats that show the same thing, that Javy has been an above average pitcher for 10 years straight. I simply tried to tie it to ERA since you seem only aware of that stat as a measurement.
You are too lazy to look anything up, all you want to do is argue your preconceived notions. And exactly where is it that you learned that no other GM was interested in Vazquez? I’d love to see some proof of that.
Alas, like all your other windy proclamations, it’s all just narrow minded and spurious.
Rant on bro
N8
November 12th, 2009
1:59 am
Really Moby? You’ve never heard anybody talking about since they’ve put up the hi-def scoreboard, the park plays smaller?
The gap in RCF is a rally killer, but the ball JUMPS out of that park to straight away LF and RF. Even to dead center there have been more balls hit off the base of the scoreboard or way over the wall in recent years.
But yeah. I’m full of myself. Keep spoutin’ moby. Just trying to educate myself on a system I’ve never bought into. To me it’s always been more black and white with hitting and pitching.
Pitchers that throw quality strikes, don’t walk people and don’t miss their target by two feet (especially after giving up walks), usually succeed on a regular basis.
Hitters that take the ball where it’s pitched, or patiently wait for a pitch to pull if that’s what they are predetermined to do, while fighting off tough pitches, usually get on base and succeed more consistently than guys with poor approaches.
No matter what park they play in. Sure the park, whether, teammates, umpires, illness, fatigue, injury, being hungover, fighting with their wife/girlfriend on the way to the park, nerves, pressure all factor in.
But ultimately a pitcher or a hitter makes their own luck over time.
Javier Vazquez has always (before last year) been victim to the big inning. 2 or 3 hits, and then BAM a 3-run HR. Strange how his luck always seemed to go that way, huh?
Might have never had anything to do with him making poor adjustments the 3rd time through the order, right? Maybe he’s gotten wiser in his later years. Maybe not.
I suppose you guys think that Francoeur has just been unlucky too, because pitchers just wouldn’t throw the ball two more feet towards the plate, where he could actually reach it?
Again. Just answer the simple question. If it’s such common knowledge to you guys that Vazquez has been unlucky all this time, why weren’t teams fighting over him when he demanded a trade from Arizona in 05? That would have seemed like the perfect time for the vultures to swoop in and make a run at such a good player with bad luck, not?
Anyways. I’m exhausted on this topic. Sad thing is, I want them to extend him because based on his past season, he looks like a good fit for the Braves, and I think he’d be more valuable over the next 3 years than Lowe and probably cost less or the same.
But you guys want to argue about how he’s been unlucky for a decade. Him, Lloyd Christmas and Harry Dunn. The three most unlucky SOB’s ever to walk the planet.
Don’t worry. One day they’ll catch their lucky break too. You just watch.
Andrew in P-tang
November 12th, 2009
2:02 am
http://www.wsbtv.com/news/17957285/detail.html
A year and a day ago
N8
November 12th, 2009
2:05 am
“It compares a team’s home lines to there away lines over 5 years.” P. W. Hjort
Thank the lord and baby Jesus!!! Somebody answered the damn question.
Thank you. That is EXACTLY what I was looking for. Couldn’t find that statement anywhere that I looked for a “definition” of what factors (or how long those factors) went into determining how a park plays.
That was the basis for my arguement. If it was from year to year, then it’s BS. But if it plays out over 5 years, that makes more sense.
You win the prize of me shutting up on this subject for the night. Congrats and goodnight.
Andrew in P-tang
November 12th, 2009
2:06 am
http://www.wsbtv.com/news/17957285/detail.html
N8
November 12th, 2009
2:08 am
“There is no way that a sane reasonable person can not understand how that changed stats. it works the same way for pitchers N8.” Moby
I understood it just fine. Just wanted somebody to explain how long of a time period was used to determine it. P. W. Hjort did that. In all that rambling of mine about how players changed from year to year, and what not, would it have been that hard for you to simply state that it is factored over a 5 year period?
You called me lazy for not looking it up. I’ll call you lazy for not answering the question.
Moby Grape
November 12th, 2009
2:10 am
Really Moby? You’ve never heard anybody talking about since they’ve put up the hi-def scoreboard, the park plays smaller? N8
it ranked as the 5th best pitchers park last year. That was extreme, but it certainly didn’t play smaller last year, it played bigger.
Here is a link to the ESPN park rankings over the last decade or so.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
P. W. Hjort
November 12th, 2009
2:17 am
But you guys want to argue about how he’s been unlucky for a decade.
Javier Vazquez, ERA, FIP, FIP-ERA
2004: 4.91, 4.83, -0.08
2005: 4.42, 3.96, -0.46
2006: 4.84, 3.94, -0.90
2007: 3.74, 3.92, 0.18
2008: 4.67, 3.81, -0.86
2009: 2.87, 2.80, -0.08
So he’s been substantially unlucky for 3 of the past 6 years. In 2008 his FIP was 0.86 points lower than his ERA. In 2006 his FIP was 0.90 points lower than his ERA. In 2005 his FIP was 0.46 points lower than his ERA. In 2009 his FIP was a mere 0.08 points lower than his phenomenal 2.87 ERA. In 2007 he posted a 3.74 ERA in the AL and a 3.92 FIP. In 2004 (behind inexplicably posting the 2nd lowest K rate in his career, the 3rd highest BB rate of his career, and the 3rd lowest K/BB ratio of his career) he posted a 4.91 ERA and a 4.83 FIP.
Every year he’s pitched well he’s gotten pretty unlucky. Every year he’s pitched badly his peripherals have aligned with his ERA. This is not a counter-intuitive concept or a particularly difficult one to grasp.
P. W. Hjort
November 12th, 2009
2:19 am
I looked for a “definition” of what factors (or how long those factors) went into determining how a park plays.
Well it’s important to always consider the source. Some places use 3-year factors, some use 5-year factors, some are stupid and use 1-year factors. It all depends on the source of the information.
N8
November 12th, 2009
2:29 am
“it ranked as the 5th best pitchers park last year. That was extreme, but it certainly didn’t play smaller last year, it played bigger.” Moby
I’m not really arguing anymore. Just discussing. But I have to comment on this comment, even though you are kind of disagreeing a bit with Turner Field’s ranking.
But that ranking and what went on with the Braves last year, is exactly my argument for the ranking system.
We had GREAT pitching last year. The pitching staff essentially allowed the same amount of runs on the road as at Turner Field (this is just total runs allowed, not ER – too lazy to not only look up, but type up all the detailed stats, so I’m going by runs to shorten it up).
On the road, the Braves allowed 323 runs, at home 318.
On the road, the Braves scored 403 runs and scored 332 at home. That’s almost a run a game more on the road. So I can see the gap there.
That’s where my dilemma with this rating system goes south as far as my belief in it goes. If Turner Field was that much of a pitcher’s park, shouldn’t the Braves staff have allowed much more runs at home?
I guess one could look at the game logs. Perhaps they had more home games early in the year before Hanson was called up, and before KK got in his groove he got into? I don’t know.
But to me it’s no more of an exact science than just looking at the numbers.
The Braves hitters could have had the same fate, after LaRoche was added maybe they played more road games and the big run totals skewed the stats? But that’s my point. Even in the middle of the 2009 season, the players creating those splits was constantly changing. Injuries and what not factored in. Guys that just flat out were having bad years (Schafer, KJ, Francoeur), possibly helped skew those numbers early in the year?
If the Braves pitching staff had had the same fate in terms of allowing more runs on the road, I’d buy it. But with that discrepancy, I’m not completely sold.
Sorry.
Anyhow. Either way I appreciate the “education” on the whole park adjustment thing. Just don’t try and sell me on sabermatics. LOL
Cherokee
November 12th, 2009
2:31 am
I think I read that The Ted played more as a pitcher’s park in 2009 than all but four or five other parks. I think Busch was something of a pitcher’s park too, but then Jason wasn’t there last year.
Cherokee
November 12th, 2009
2:36 am
Either way I appreciate the “education” on the whole park adjustment thing. Just don’t try and sell me on sabermatics. N8
That is too bad N8, because some of the individual sabermetric stats can give insights that traditional ones can’t. I think they should be wedded to the older ones, and all of them used as tools.
P. W. Hjort
November 12th, 2009
2:38 am
If Turner Field was that much of a pitcher’s park, shouldn’t the Braves staff have allowed much more runs at home?
I know what you’re saying. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you meant to conclude the sentence with “on the road” instead of “at home” (in which case the sentence would make logical sense, you’re a reasonable guy and I think you understand this.) But not necessarily, no. First of all, 1 year isn’t as big of a sample size as we’d like to have. In any case, Turner Field rates as average. One of the most, if not the most, neutral parks in baseball.
N8
November 12th, 2009
2:41 am
“Well it’s important to always consider the source. Some places use 3-year factors, some use 5-year factors, some are stupid and use 1-year factors. It all depends on the source of the information.” P. W. Hjort
That’s my point. I can buy that over a five year period, it might speak a little more truth to the matter. But on a year to year basis? I can’t buy that. Like Moby’s link to the ESPN page.
The Phillies had good hitters. That team actually scored more runs on the road as well. Yet everybody blames that “bandbox” for their offensive success. The pitchers barely allowed more runs at home (367 to 342).
Isn’t it possible that good teams from year to year, score more runs on average everywhere, and allow fewer runs no matter where they pitch? And when those teams stay together for an extended period of time (even meaning the 5 year period is skewed) the numbers aren’t an exact science? Or am I completely missing the boat on how it’s calculated.
For example. Without Zak Greinke, would the Kaufmann Stadium in KC have been considered more of a hitter’s park, if say Kyle Davies took most of his starts?
Not trying to be an ass. Just trying to grasp it.
P. W. Hjort
November 12th, 2009
2:46 am
Either way I appreciate the “education” on the whole park adjustment thing. Just don’t try and sell me on sabermatics. LOL
Whether you like it or not, your questioning of peoples’ basic understanding of park adjustments is precisely in-line with the most basic sabermetric principle–to question commonplace thinking. Here’s what Bill James says:
Sabermetrics is descended from traditional sportswriting. Sportswriting consists of two types of things—reporting, and analysis. Sabermetrics came from that part of sportswriting which consists of analysis, argument, evaluation, opinion and bullshit. I can tell you very precisely when and how we parted ways with traditional analysis.
Sportswriters discuss a range of questions which are much the same from generation to generation. Who is the Most Valuable Player? Who should go into the Hall of Fame? Who will win the pennant? What factors are important in winning the pennant? If Boston won the pennant, why did they win it? If Kansas City finished last, why did they finish last? How has baseball changed over the last few years? Who is the best third baseman in baseball today? Who is better, Mike Lowell or Eric Chavez?
The questions that we deal with in our work are the same as the questions that are discussed by sports columnists and by radio talk show hosts every day. To the best of my knowledge, there is no difference whatsoever in the underlying issues that we discuss. The difference between us is very simple. Sportswriters always or almost always begin their analysis with a position on the issue. We always begin our analysis with the question itself.
If you find a sportswriter debating who should be the National League’s Most Valuable Player this season, his article will probably begin by asserting a position on the issue, and then will argue for that position. If you find 100 articles by sportswriters debating issues of this type, in all likelihood all 100 articles will do this.
What we do is simply to begin by asking “Who is the National League’s Most Valuable Player this season?” rather than to begin by stating that “Albert Pujols is the National League’s Most Valuable Player this season, and let me tell you why.” That’s all. That is the entire difference between sabermetrics and traditional sportswriting. It isn’t the use of statistics. It isn’t the use of formulas. It is merely the habit of beginning with a question, rather than beginning with an answer.
I support sabermetrics for one reason and one reason only. I like the idea of a society questioning commonplace groupthink. I like the idea of society yearning for data to back up their conclusions. I like the idea that society shouldn’t just accept something because idiot sportswriters say we should, without doing any real research. The quest for the truth (in baseball as well as in life) should be an empirical quest.
P. W. Hjort
November 12th, 2009
2:49 am
For example. Without Zak Greinke, would the Kaufmann Stadium in KC have been considered more of a hitter’s park, if say Kyle Davies took most of his starts?
No because Kyle Davies would be pitching at Kaufmann Stadium and elsewhere. If Greinke only pitched at Kaufmann Stadium or only pitched elsewhere that’s a different issue. But that doesn’t happen in absolutes. And if it does happen to a degree, the effect is largely obscured when your sample sizes are large enough. Say, 5 years.
N8
November 12th, 2009
2:54 am
P. W. Hjort, yes. I meant on the road, and I totally agree. That’s my point. One year is too small of a sample size to determine how a park plays, imo.
That was my whole argument when I didn’t know how long it was calculated over. But even then, the five years is kind of misleading.
Without buildings being torn down. Bleachers being opened up (or a new stadium being built across a parking lot like in Cincy a few years ago before Cinergy closed), wind off the lake blowing in or out like in Chicago, etc…..
Nothing should really ever change how a park plays, should it? I mean, technically 1 year, 5 years, or 20 years, shouldn’t Fulton County stadium have “played” the same during the entire time it was open? Why the fluctuation? The only logical answer to me is better or worse players.
The part that baffled me last year, was that most hitters (and some pitchers) play better at home. Whether it’s being at home with family and sleeping in their bed (being around their kids), or just being more familiar with how their park plays. But the Braves hitters were so bad at home and the team record at home showed it.
I would think that more often than not, except in the extreme instances of extreme hitter’s parks like Coors, or extreme pitcher’s parks like Petco, most teams hit better at home (and pitch better on the road in the case of the Rockies).
To me it’s just more elementary than that. Good hitters hit anywhere. Good pitchers can pitch anywhere. Remember Glavine’s success in Colorado? 13 career starts at Coors and his ERA was 3.68 – that has to be one of the best opponent’s ERA in that park. Maybe it’s because he had Andruw in CF covering all that ground? Maybe it’s because the thin air didn’t affect his change up style of pitching and location? But he was obviously geared to pitch there. Not sure how he would have done had he played for the Rockies for an extended period of time (ask Hampton LOL). But I suspect he would have been fine. Dude knew how to pitch.
P. W. Hjort
November 12th, 2009
2:56 am
Either way I appreciate the “education” on the whole park adjustment thing. Just don’t try and sell me on sabermatics.
Like it or not, your questioning of park effects is 100% in line with sabermetric philosophy. To quote Bill James:
Sabermetrics is descended from traditional sportswriting. Sportswriting consists of two types of things—reporting, and analysis. Sabermetrics came from that part of sportswriting which consists of analysis, argument, evaluation, opinion and bullshit. I can tell you very precisely when and how we parted ways with traditional analysis.
Sportswriters discuss a range of questions which are much the same from generation to generation. Who is the Most Valuable Player? Who should go into the Hall of Fame? Who will win the pennant? What factors are important in winning the pennant? If Boston won the pennant, why did they win it? If Kansas City finished last, why did they finish last? How has baseball changed over the last few years? Who is the best third baseman in baseball today? Who is better, Mike Lowell or Eric Chavez?
The questions that we deal with in our work are the same as the questions that are discussed by sports columnists and by radio talk show hosts every day. To the best of my knowledge, there is no difference whatsoever in the underlying issues that we discuss. The difference between us is very simple. Sportswriters always or almost always begin their analysis with a position on the issue. We always begin our analysis with the question itself.
If you find a sportswriter debating who should be the National League’s Most Valuable Player this season, his article will probably begin by asserting a position on the issue, and then will argue for that position. If you find 100 articles by sportswriters debating issues of this type, in all likelihood all 100 articles will do this.
What we do is simply to begin by asking “Who is the National League’s Most Valuable Player this season?” rather than to begin by stating that “Albert Pujols is the National League’s Most Valuable Player this season, and let me tell you why.” That’s all. That is the entire difference between sabermetrics and traditional sportswriting. It isn’t the use of statistics. It isn’t the use of formulas. It is merely the habit of beginning with a question, rather than beginning with an answer.
Sabermetrics is about questioning commonplace groupthink, not a set of component ERA formulas and BABIP calculations. That’s why I support sabermetrics, because I believe that the next generation of Americans should be raised with the belief that they shouldn’t accept any concept unless there is data to support it. They shouldn’t believe something because their parents did or because their teachers say so or because some idiot sportswriter says it’s true, they should believe things that are tried and true, tried with empirical evidence. The quest for the truth (in life, as well as in baseball) is an empirical one.
P. W. Hjort
November 12th, 2009
3:01 am
Remember Glavine’s success in Colorado? 13 career starts at Coors and his ERA was 3.68 – that has to be one of the best opponent’s ERA in that park. Maybe it’s because he had Andruw in CF covering all that ground? Maybe it’s because the thin air didn’t affect his change up style of pitching and location?
It’s probably just because of the fact that 13 starts isn’t nearly as big of a sample size as you’d like to evaluate a pitcher’s fundamental skills.
Always follow this rule: Take a 4-year sample size (2400 PA’s or 700 IP for a starter, 250 IP for a reliever) or the player’s entire career (whichever is smaller) when drawing conclusions about a player’s fundamental skills. Any smaller of a sample size and there’s too much statistical noise to extract any meaningful conclusions.
Random
November 12th, 2009
5:09 am
N8 (November 12th, 2009 2:29 am): “That’s where my dilemma with this rating system goes south as far as my belief in it goes. If Turner Field was that much of a pitcher’s park, shouldn’t the Braves staff have allowed much more runs at home?”
You gotta realize that the Braves were not the only team that played at the Ted last year (or the last 3 or 5 years) — their performance there compared to their performance away would constitute no more than 50% of the total data that would go into computing a park adjustment.
I think you answered your own question — “We had GREAT pitching last year.” Perhaps good enough to be less vulnerable to park factors than other teams’ pitching.
Also, the types of pitchers fielded by the Braves may have been individually less vulnerable to the Ted’s particular park factors than other teams’ types of pitchers.
Random
November 12th, 2009
6:31 am
N8 (November 12th, 2009 12:57 am): “so let me get this right. Because Delgado wasn’t born in the US. Was playing for a Canadian team at the time, and was upset about us using parts of his home country as a base, he protested God Bless America, and you’re OK with that.”
Oh, hell, yeah. I have my own reasons for objecting to it and its invasion of the national pastime. I also object to the near universal militarization of American civil society, but both of those are entirely different topics not to be discussed here.
“Yet I, as an American being offended by somebody making a TON of money playing a game based on “The American Dream” and capitalism at it’s finest, am “knocking down straw men”? “
Only in your head is a protest against American military adventurism interpreted as a protest against capitalism and “The American Dream”.
You wrote “One can only assume that to uphold his protest, he gave all of the money to his home country as a charity, that he made playing all baseball games outside of Canada and on US soil that summer, right?”
Yeah, the same way that one could assume that you yourself pay federal income taxes at a 100% rate after deductions.
That’s the straw man you’re knocking down — condemning someone for not taking some ridiculous action that only in your head he should. (And that you yourself never would, so add hypocrisy.)
Only in your head does any of that make any sense — you should have kept it there.
O.J.
November 12th, 2009
7:31 am
Daybed is right, and not to mention that we would still need a few bullpen arms and a first baseman as well. So Holliday does not fit into the payroll, not even if we shed Lowe’s contract.
P. W. Hjort
November 12th, 2009
7:59 am
O.J. (November 12, 2009 7:31 AM EST) Daybed is right, and not to mention that we would still need a few bullpen arms and a first baseman as well. So Holliday does not fit into the payroll, not even if we shed Lowe’s contract.
You say tomato, I show you that there is no tomato.
Name: 2010 Salary
Javier Vazquez $11,500,000
Tim Hudson $10,000,000
Kenshin Kawakami $7,333,333
Jair Jurrjens $400,000
Tommy Hanson $400,000
Reliever $5,000,000
Reliever $5,000,000
Peter Moylan $1,500,000
Eric O’Flaherty $400,000
Kris Medlen $400,000
Boone Logan $600,000
Craig Kimbrel $400,000
Brian McCann $5,666,666
First Baseman $7,250,000
Martin Prado $400,000
Yunel Escobar $400,000
Chipper Jones $13,000,000
Matt Holliday $17,500,000
Nate McLouth $5,000,000
Matt Diaz $3,000,000
David Ross $1,600,000
Omar Infante $1,850,000
Brooks Conrad $400,000
Brandon Jones $400,000
Jason Heyward $400,000
That’s spending $10 million on the bullpen, $7.25 million on 1B, and $17.5 million on Holliday and the number still adds up to less than $100 million.
O.J.
November 12th, 2009
8:23 am
Some of your figures are off, some higher and some lower than what they really are. Jurrjens made $450,000 in ‘09 and he is surely to get a raise on that. Logan made more than what you have there. And I just dont see Heyward, Brandon Jones and Conrad coming off the bench like that. And that is if we can even move Lowe’s contract to make room for Holliday. And all that adds up to 98.9 million, just a tad under 100. And unless they sign someone like Russell Branyan to take over first base, you can forget 7.25 million there as well. Theres your tomato.
Anders
November 12th, 2009
8:29 am
Now to the next four months of Hot Stove League, where we can all sit back and listen to Anders tell us what deals are or aren’t feasible. (LEW)
I’ll do my best to keep you on the straight and narrow big guy.
O.J.
November 12th, 2009
8:33 am
Heres what I got with possible raises and stuff and if we can trade Lowe
Javier Vazquez $11,500,000
Tim Hudson $10,000,000
Kenshin Kawakami $6,667,000
Jair Jurrjens $800,000
Tommy Hanson $500,000
Reliever $5,000,000
Reliever $5,000,000
Peter Moylan $1,500,000
Eric O’Flaherty $500,000
Kris Medlen $500,000
Boone Logan $600,000
Manny Acosta $475,000
Brian McCann $5,500,000
First Baseman $7,250,000
Martin Prado $600,000
Yunel Escobar $700,000
Chipper Jones $13,000,000
Matt Holliday $17,500,000
Nate McLouth $4,500,000
Matt Diaz $2,000,000
David Ross $1,600,000
Omar Infante $2,250,000
Brooks Conrad $400,000
Brandon Jones $400,000
Jason Heyward $400,000
Bringing that total to 99.14 million, and I seriously doubt that Heyward and B. Jones is going to be on the opening day roster. So raise that a few more million.
O.J.
November 12th, 2009
8:35 am
And I also think it will take more than 17.5 million to get Holliday, especially with Borass as his agent.
Anders
November 12th, 2009
8:39 am
Lowe can be moved along with his entire contract. He’s got an excellent track record for winning games year in and year out, stays off of the DL (and has throughout his career) and pitches 200 innings (or damned close to it) every year. $15 mil is really not that huge a contract in the scheme of good pitching. (LEW)
OK, maybe this is going to be harder than I thought. {:
O'Brien
November 12th, 2009
8:46 am
Saw this from Ken Rosenthal’s blog on foxsports.com
“In the Braves’ perfect world, they would obtain a right-handed slugger in his prime, someone like Twins right fielder Michael Cuddyer, who is not available.
Such players are in short supply, and the Braves are unlikely to make runs at the top free-agent hitters, Matt Holliday and Jason Bay.
Instead, they are kicking around a variety of lesser options, including the following:
Marlon Byrd, free agent: Coming off a career-high 20-homer, 89-RBI season, he is expected to be targeted by the Cubs, who could reunite him with Rudy Jaramillo, his hitting coach from the Rangers.
Xavier Nady, free agent: The Braves tried to acquire him when he was with the Pirates, but Nady is more of a complementary type than a middle-of-the-order threat, and is coming off his second Tommy John surgery.
Mike Cameron, free agent: Lives in Atlanta, wants to play in Atlanta, but is not high on the Braves’ list of priorities.
Dan Uggla, Marlins. Like the Red Sox, the Braves have pondered the idea of trading for the second baseman and playing him in left field.
David DeJesus, Royals: Not right-handed and not a slugger, but a player the Braves have liked in the past”.
My opinion, I have a hard time believing these are the players the Braves are considering.
Anders
November 12th, 2009
8:49 am
The fact that Wagner required the Red Sox to pledge NOT to pick up his $10 mill option for 2010 before he was traded is probably some indication of how much he and his agent believe he can get on the open market (DOB)
My recollection from when the deal went down between the Mets and the Red Sox was that Wagner wanted this “pledge” from the Red Sox because if he’s going to pitch this year it has to be for a team that will let him close. Clearly that wouldn’t happen with the Sox (barring and injury). He didn’t want to get boxed in there. I don’t think it’s as much the money. He was willing to go to the Sox to prove he still had stuff in big games against elite guys – he proved that imo. Now he wants to close again only. He publicly stated that his interest in continuing to pitch is to increase his saves number in the hopes of making the HOF. Sounds like a very self serving statement but I give the guy credit for admitting it. No bull from him. If teams have a problem with that, don’t sign him and he’ll stay home. I know he comes off as an ass sometimes but he’s really a stand up guy. Doesn’t hide or shrink from anything. I grew to respect him more than I did before he pitched for the Mets.
That said, I doubt he’ll accept a deal with the Braves to share the closer duties with Gonzo or Soriano. The good news is if Cox tells Wagner he’ll close, Wagner will believe Cox for sure.
braves4ever
November 12th, 2009
8:52 am
And it’s starting to the fun time of the year when you can log-in multiple times a day and spill your coffee laughing at the posts. It’s just like Christmas on here ,presents, promises of presents, dreams, laughter, friends and family telling big tells, just plain fun and I can’t wait to read some of the posts that will surely bring me joy.
P. W. Hjort
November 12th, 2009
8:55 am
O.J. (November 12, 2009 8:23 AM EST) Some of your figures are off, some higher and some lower than what they really are.
Actually, McLouth’s salary is $500,000 too high and Kawakami’s is $0.666666 million too high and Tim Hudson’s is $1 million too high, yes. Also, I made a mistake WRT Omar Infante’s 2010 salary (I listed his 2009 salary which is ~$400,000 off).
Jurrjens made $450,000 in ‘09 and he is surely to get a raise on that.
You couldn’t possibly be pickier. He’s under team control, year to year, as a pre-arb player. If he gets any type of raise it isn’t going to be a significant one.
Logan made more than what you have there.
No he didn’t. He made $427,500 last season. The $600,000 was an estimate of what he’ll make in arbitration. Your argument is a lot more convincing if you take the trouble to look it up and replace “more than what you have there” with an actual number. Of course, not here, because what you said is wrong, but in the future look it up instead of talking out of your rear.
And I just dont see Heyward, Brandon Jones and Conrad coming off the bench like that.
Heyward, no. I just put him there to demonstrate the club has the ability to call him or Schafer up whenever they want. Why wouldn’t B. Jones and Conrad come off the bench? Even if they don’t and the organization is signing someone like Eric Bruntlett, it’s not important. The finances are, and the club isn’t likely to commit an abundance of financial resources to that area of the bench.
And that is if we can even move Lowe’s contract to make room for Holliday.
That was the original premise, yes.
And all that adds up to 98.9 million, just a tad under 100.
This is a whole new type of fallacy and I don’t know what to call it yet. I’ll get back to you.
Theres your tomato.
Thanks for playing along, at least.
Anyway, here’s the updated salaries with correct information (I’ve entered all the 2nd+ year pre-arb players at $500,000 just to be safe). I’ve bumped the 1B’s salary up to $8,000,000, Kawakami’s down to $6,666,667, McLouth’s down to $4,500,000, and Tim Hudson’s down to $9,000,000.
Name: 2010 Salary
Javier Vazquez $11,500,000
Tim Hudson $9,000,000
Kenshin Kawakami $6,666,666
Jair Jurrjens $500,000
Tommy Hanson $500,000
Reliever $5,000,000
Reliever $5,000,000
Peter Moylan $1,500,000
Eric O’Flaherty $500,000
Kris Medlen $500,000
Boone Logan $600,000
Craig Kimbrel $400,000
Brian McCann $5,666,666
First Baseman $8,000,000
Martin Prado $500,000
Yunel Escobar $500,000
Chipper Jones $13,000,000
Matt Holliday $17,500,000
Nate McLouth $4,500,000
Matt Diaz $3,000,000
David Ross $1,600,000
Omar Infante $2,225,000
Brooks Conrad $400,000
Brandon Jones $400,000
Jason Heyward $400,000
Total $99,358,332
I’ll say it again. You say tomato. I show you that there is no tomato.
P.S. – I see your new post. Why have you given rather sizable raises to all of the pre-arb players? They have no leverage to get raises. They’re usually renewed at close to league minimum.
Anders
November 12th, 2009
8:58 am
As for Lowe to the Yanks. Not an inkling of that up this way. They’re trying to sign Pettitte to one more year and if that doesn’t work out they’ll woo Lackey. Remember they have Wang in the system too. Just doesn’t make sense for them to take the $45 mil risk with so many other less expensive options. Plus Cashman already said Joba and Hughes will start again next year.
As for the Angels – well let’s just say Lowe doesn’t appear to have what it takes to pitch in the AL. I mean look at what the White Sox GM said to DOB about Vasquez in the AL versus the NL. And he was lights out in the NL this year. Where would that put Lowe on an AL depth chart?
I expect to see Mr. Lowe toeing the rubber at the Ted this spring.
Anders
November 12th, 2009
9:03 am
BTW- I should post some Mets thoughts. If the Mets don’t go out and get a rock solid #2 this off season than it’s a bust. I know they’re kicking the tires on a big bat, but they need a proven #2 starter badly. Short of that they won’t make up enough ground on the Phils and possibly lose some to the Braves and Marlins depending on their off season dealings.
Lew
November 12th, 2009
9:10 am
Nathan, Old Buddy-You sure were full of yourself last night Dude-or something.
Black Betty
November 12th, 2009
9:11 am
I had a dream last night that Matt Diaz was traded to the Nats for two players. I hope it was a result of bad pizza and not a glimps into the future. Can’t get rid of Matty Baseball!!!
Anders
November 12th, 2009
9:12 am
Good morning sunshine.
David O'Brien
November 12th, 2009
9:14 am
Morning all. Expecting to get a Tim Hudson announcement at any time today….
I was too tired to get the laptop out when I finally got home late last night, after landing in Atlanta, working at airport and going straight to a friend’s house and then to the Monsters of Folk show. Came home and watched maybe the best episode ever of Sons of Anarchy, then fell asleep in recliner.
As for the Monsters of Folk show, if you get a chance you gotta go see this concert. One of the three or four best shows I’ve seen this year, nearly three hours (including encores) of terrific music. As good as the album is (and it’s very good), the band is far, far better live.
Really, I can’t say enough good things about the live performance of best supergroup of my lifetime (Traveling Wilburys were great; this is better.)
Conor Oberst, M. Ward, Jim James, Mike Mogis … the whole group rocked and rolled, soared on the ballads and the many harder tunes alike (and the harder tunes became pretty fierce live). And they all looked like they were having a blast, particularly Oberst, who was like a kid jumping around up there, climbing atop the drum kit while playing guitar, etc.
Jim James’ voice might be the coolest, most unique voice in rock.
Mr.Neutral
November 12th, 2009
9:14 am
Three Tennessee football players tried to pull off an armed robbery of three men at 2 am last night. What turmoil this is going to cause.
Lew
November 12th, 2009
9:23 am
OJ-If Heyward and Brandon JOnes are not going to be on the opening day lineup and are both making $400,000, how does their not being on the roster equate to a “few million more” savings? Even artist’s math doesn’t come up with that figure.
David O'Brien
November 12th, 2009
9:26 am
Don’t dismiss that Uggla-to-left-field rumor. It’s a legit possibility.
And I’m not sure who the Marlins would want back, but could include Kelly Johnson. I say that because Fredi always liked the guy. Kelly also has a .319 average and .975 OPS in 30 games at the stadium formerly known as Joe Robbie (and Pro Player … and Dolphin … )
David O'Brien
November 12th, 2009
9:27 am
Hudson extension official. Just announced. Conference call at 10:30 a.m.
Anders
November 12th, 2009
9:28 am
Hudson extension official. Just announced. Conference call at 10:30 a.m. (DOB)
A-Rod’s gonna date her for another year?
David O'Brien
November 12th, 2009
9:30 am
Hudson is a three-year deal with fourth-year option for 2013.
Tomahawk Talk
November 12th, 2009
9:33 am
I like the idea on Uggla. Where would u put him in the lineup? behind Chipper? I think Bmac is more comfortable in the 5 hole.
Frank Robinson (Rockmart)
November 12th, 2009
9:34 am
Anders, that’s funny.
scott
November 12th, 2009
9:36 am
I wouldn’t mind Uggla in LF, but I don’t want him if he is going to be at 2nd or 1st. I could take him in LF though. That actually makes him look appealing.
Does he have any stock at 3rd? I know he isn’t swift at 2nd, but to me 3rd could be a better fit for him and be a future replacement for Chipper.
P. W. Hjort
November 12th, 2009
9:36 am
Is that a club or mutual or player or vesting (or some other type that they haven’t come up with or I haven’t thought of) option.
Anders
November 12th, 2009
9:38 am
Don’t dismiss that Uggla-to-left-field rumor. It’s a legit possibility (DOB)
Let’s be honest here. If Minaya made this move you guys would be all over him. Just sayin.
Space Monkey
November 12th, 2009
9:38 am
I’m sure this has been discussed. Is it possible that we could trade Lowe for an expensive right-handed power hitter who maybe had a less than great 2009? If we did so, then the deal would be revenue neutral to Atlanta and maybe we could sign Vazquez for the long term.
RC
November 12th, 2009
9:39 am
And I’m not sure who the Marlins would want back, but could include Kelly Johnson.
DOB, wouldn’t the fact that Kelly is also due for an arbitration raise prevent the Marlins from wanting him? Or is it due to the fact that even with the raise he’ll be making so much less than Uggla, and he’d likely be starting with the Marlins?
Anders
November 12th, 2009
9:40 am
I’m sure this has been discussed. Is it possible that we could trade Lowe for an expensive right-handed power hitter who maybe had a less than great 2009? (Space Monkey)
Like who?
TnBrian
November 12th, 2009
9:41 am
I guess the Marlins are cheap enough to trade one of their power hitters within the division. Isn’t Uggla due to get a raise? Well, he’s definitely right handed & has some pop. Just grab a beer & watch this guy’s adventures in LF next year if Atlanta does get him. Or, maybe he could turn out to be a better OF than 2nd baseman.
Mr.Neutral
November 12th, 2009
9:42 am
I say that because Fredi always liked the guy. Kelly also has a .319 average and .975 OPS in 30 games at the stadium formerly known as Joe Robbie (and Pro PlayerStadium) DOB
Don’t forget LandShark Stadium. Isn’t that some kind of Annheiser/Busch product?
Lew
November 12th, 2009
9:42 am
Anders-Yeah, we’d all be wondering why Omar signed him and he wasn’t even a Hispanic player.
RC
November 12th, 2009
9:43 am
Let’s be honest here. If Minaya made this move you guys would be all over him. Just sayin. – Anders
Yeah, I’ve got to agree with you there Anders. I’m honestly hoping for a better solution for the Braves, but if they do make this move I’m more likely to think it’s smart than if the Mets made the exact same move. Just years of conditioning myself that way I guess
O.J.
November 12th, 2009
9:44 am
P.W. Look, lets just agree that we would have to get rid of Lowe before any of this talk goes down. I did look up the numbers but entered them wrong. Either way, we wont know the payroll and what the players will make until that time comes, so until then we are just making guesses on the non arb players. We shall see what happens this winter, we shall see.
O.J.
November 12th, 2009
9:45 am
Has Uggla ever played left field??
keylargo
November 12th, 2009
9:45 am
I’m sure this has been discussed. Is it possible that we could trade Lowe for an expensive right-handed power hitter who maybe had a less than great 2009? (Space Monkey)
Like who?
I think he is referring to the Tigers LFer Maglio Ordonez.
O.J.
November 12th, 2009
9:47 am
Has Uggla ever played left field? and if so, how was his defense?
keylargo
November 12th, 2009
9:47 am
No thank you to Ordonez by the way.
You don’t like Lowe at $15 mill for 15 wins, try Orodonez at $18 mill for 9 HR’s.
O.J.
November 12th, 2009
9:49 am
I will say it again, how bout Lowe for Carlos Lee?
David O'Brien
November 12th, 2009
9:49 am
By David O’Brien
It’s official – the Braves have finalized a three-year contract extension with pitcher Tim Hudson, a deal that includes a fourth-year option for 2013. It’s believed to be worth close to $9 million per season.
Hudson, 34, went 2-1 with a 3.61 ERA in seven late-season starts for the Braves in 2009 after a year-long recovery from ligament-transplant elbow surgery.
The former 20-game winner has a 148-78 record and 3.49 ERA in 11 seasons with the Braves and Oakland Athletics, including 56-39 with a 3.77 ERA since being traded to Atlanta before the 2005 season
With Hudson back, the Braves have a surplus of starting pitchers and will likely step up efforts to trade one from the veteran trio of Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez or Kenshin Kawakami.
Lowe would presumably be the most challenging to move, since he has three years and $45 million left on his contract and is coming off one of his worst seasons, which included a 4.67 ERA and only 111 strikeouts in 194-2/3 innings.
Vazquez, who had one of the best seasons by any major league pitcher, is owed $11.5 million in 2010 before becoming eligible for free agency. The Braves would prefer to keep him, but he might be the only one of the three older pitchers they could trade and get top young talent back in return.
The Braves want to add a right-handed power hitter, and Vazquez is attractive enough to possibly bring a power bat in return.
Regardless of who’s traded, the Braves figure to have a strong rotation featuring Hudson, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson.
Hudson’s .655 winning percentage ranks 12th in major league history among pitchers with at least 200 decisions, and fourth among active pitchers, behind Pedro Martinez (.687), Roy Oswalt (.662) and Roy Halladay (.661).
Hudson has a 121-5 record in games in which he received four or more support runs, and 106-2 when he’s been provided with a lead of three runs or more. His ratio of .72 home runs allowed per nine innings pitched ranks third among active pitchers, behind Mariano Rivera (.50) and Brandon Webb (.63).
keylargo
November 12th, 2009
9:50 am
Dan Uggla has never played a defensive inning anywhere but 2B. (in MLB)
Rock On......
November 12th, 2009
9:51 am
DOB…hope that 4th year is a club option and not mutual option.LOL…
On MLB Network Hot Stove last night, Ripken and crew opined that Uggla was pretty much a sure bet to be traded. Ditto the Gonzalez from the Padres. They guessed Gonzalez had a good chance to end up at Boston but mentioned many teams where Uggla could land. Braves were mentioned. It would be nice to have Uggla in LF with around 30 homers instead of consistently killing the Braves on another team.
CMA awards show was stellar. Jennifer Nettles simply stole the night. Wow what a voice. Couldn’t help but think she is channeling a country version of Janis Joplin. Simply the best singer on that stage last night and it wasn’t close. The only negative was the Taylor Swift awards. Really, Swift entertainer of the year over Paisley or Urban? Can’t buy that one – especially after that gosh-awful show opening song. Props also to the Zac Brown Band and Lady Antebellum for solid performances.
O'Brien
November 12th, 2009
9:53 am
Could Uggla be any worse defensively than Loaf?
There are 2 red flags though. Uggla is a .257 hitter, and he only hit .208 against lefties last season.
P. W. Hjort
November 12th, 2009
9:54 am
Dan Uggla Career Splits
Overall (2698 PA’s) – .257/.344/.482/.826 (.295 BABIP, 114 OPS+) 121 HR (5.18% of AB’s) 2.14 K/BB ratio .225 ISO
Turner Field (162 PA’s) – .356/.404/.658 (.422 BABIP) 9 HR (6.16% of AB’s) 3.36 K/BB ratio .302 ISO
VS RHP (2053 PA’s) – .263/.347/.500/.847 (.301 BABIP) 100 HR (5.60% of AB’s) 2.27 K/BB ratio .237 ISO
VS LHP (645 PA’s) – .241/.336/.425/.761 (.275 BABIP) 21 HR (3.80% of AB’s) 1.77 K/BB ratio .184 ISO
1st Half (1473 PA’s) – .266/.348/.506/.854 (.299 BABIP) 69 HR (5.41% of AB’s) 2.15 K/BB ratio .240 ISO
2nd Half (1225 PA’s) – .248/.340/.454/.793 (.290 BABIP) 52 HR (4.90% of AB’s) 2.13 K/BB ratio .206 ISO
Steve from OH
November 12th, 2009
9:54 am
Uggla? Eh, not bad, but I worry about his LF defense. The bat is fine (maybe not a legit cleanup bat) and a big upgrade over GA, so that’s good.
Anders
November 12th, 2009
9:56 am
Lowe can be moved along with his entire contract. He’s got an excellent track record for winning games year in and year out, stays off of the DL (and has throughout his career) and pitches 200 innings (or damned close to it) every year. $15 mil is really not that huge a contract in the scheme of good pitching. (LEW)
Lowe would presumably be the most challenging to, since he has three years and $45 million left on his contract and is coming off one of his worst seasons, which included a 4.67 ERA and only 111 strikeouts in 194-2/3 innings. (DOB)
A clash of the Titans! Someone get the cage and let’s settle this once and for all!!!!
P. W. Hjort
November 12th, 2009
9:58 am
In the minors Dan Uggla played 290 games at 2B, 228 games at 3B, 16 games at 1B, 18 games at SS, and 20 games in the OF (presumably LF).
AdirondackDave
November 12th, 2009
10:01 am
Good to hear that Hudson is official. Three years including this year plus an option year is great for the Braves and good for Hudson, too, who seems to really value staying “home” more than some guys who give it lip service and then take a hike.
This gives Braves and Wren a strong trading position and a lot of flexibility this off-season. I’m really looking forward to Vazquez, Hudson, Hanson, Jurrjens, and whoever. I like Uggla if he doesn’t do too much damage in left field and as long as it doesn’t cost us Javy. Lowe or KK plus Kelly works for me though the Braves certainly would have to eat a lot of Lowe’s salary under that scenario.
keylargo
November 12th, 2009
10:03 am
There are 2 red flags though. Uggla is a .257 hitter, and he only hit .208 against lefties last season.
You wouldn’t consider having NEVER played LF a Red Flag?
O.J.
November 12th, 2009
10:05 am
In 2004 when Uggla played for El Paso, Arizona’s AA team, he played 20 games in the outfield and only commited 1 error. He has also played some 1st base as well in the minors, maybe they could put him there and sign Mike Cameron for left field or center and move Nate to left.
Thrillhouse44
November 12th, 2009
10:06 am
Let’s be honest here. If Minaya made this move you guys would be all over him. Just sayin.
How dare there be bias on a Braves blog???
O.J.
November 12th, 2009
10:08 am
Key, as PW has stated, he has played the outfield and some 1st base. Maybe the Braves move him there?? Who knows. Just the fact that they keep mentioning people for Left Field makes me think they might already have a deal in place with Adam. But I could be overlooking into things.
18 Wheels of Love
November 12th, 2009
10:08 am
Could the Cox comment about Prado possibly moving to the OF have some significance with Uggla? Maybe Uggla takes over 2B?
Scott
November 12th, 2009
10:08 am
“Hudson has a 121-5 record in games in which he received four or more support runs, and 106-2 when he’s been provided with a lead of three runs or more.”
I’ve read it about 10 times now. Does this make sense?
Tomahawk Talk
November 12th, 2009
10:10 am
No way the Marlins would want any of the three starters we want to trade. They would most likely want KJ and some prospects because the whole idea for them is to cut payroll. thats what the marlins do. They rely on youth.
Rock On......
November 12th, 2009
10:15 am
18 wheels…I see no scenario where Uggla, if acquired, starts at 2nd over Prado unless an injury should occur at some point. LF may not be that big a reach and Uggla’s bat should compensate for early struggles defensively.
MLB Hot Stove Talk « SprungOnSports
November 12th, 2009
10:16 am
[...] Eastern -Tim Hudson’s three year, $27 million extension has been finalized, says the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Now the AJC asks about what the team will do with Javier Vazquez. I say if they can trade Derek [...]