Braves explore options during GM meetings

Kimbrel’s outing today:

5 batters faced, 1 K, 4 BB’s

Solid.

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If you are so willing to assume that Vazquez is a great pitcher based on one great season, after a track record of mediocre results, are you willing to accept Chipper’s 2009 season as the beginning of his decline, since he’s been nothing short of stellar for the past decade?

Nate, he has not had one great season and a track record of mediocre results. that is pure unadulterated BS.
Mediocre is a derogative word generally thought to mean grudgingly average at best. Javy has an ERA+ of better than 10% above average the last 10 years. He has had 6 of those 10 years above 108 including 119,130,139,126 and 143 last year. No way on God’s green earth are those numbers mediocre, they are way above average. He is one of only a dozen or so guys in history to have 10+ wins and 150+ Ks for ten years in a row. Mediocre pitchers are not gonna have that kinda success.
The straw question that you keep throwing out there about believing he is a good pitcher because of one great year is total crap. Anyone who can look at his adjusted numbers and claim that he is mediocre is the one having trouble with reality.
Sorry dude, but that is so far off base as to be ludicrous. FCS, Nolan Ryan averaged just one more win a year than loss for his entire career. Does that make him mediocre too. I’m not comparing Javy’s ability to Nolan’s, but his career has had much the same trend.
You my friend, are buying into a bunch of media bullcrap. He has played mostly with poor teams both offensively at times and defensively, and in several hitters parks that make his ERA high, but his ERA+ is still above to way above average.
Will he have another 143 season? I’ve said likely not a number of times, but he will have another year between 110-130 by all means of prediction. Mediocre my fat dimpled ass.

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Add me to the list who think Reyes may just get his act together. I think he’s needed a strong dose of maturity, and that may be in the works. But, let’s face, with Minor and Teheran coming along, and others, Reyes really doesn’t have a place in Braves’ world anymore. I definitely think Wren will ship him out at some point.

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N8 is on a roll today. Pulling out the longs ones today (and long means very long in N8’s terms). Good stuff N8.

SteveFromOH, I agree with you that we have only 1 guy that is capable of stealing bases and that’s the reason why we don’t run (a good reason). However, there are other ways to move runners over though. I’m not an advocate of a bunt unless you’re playing for 1 run late or want to keep a game close early, but that other way is a hit an run. To me, Bobby didn’t utilize this option last year. You have Prado and Escobar who are good at putting the ball on the ground at either side of the middle infield, and we never even attempted it. This team isn’t slow, it’s not quick either, but it’s not so slow that it would hurt you to hit and run and try to create a 1st and 3rd opportunity.

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BravesfaninWis

I think you are trying to read too much into Frank’s statement. Maybe it just means he can be patient. Might actually mean what he said it meant?? Ya think?

It also tells me that he doesn’t necessarily have his sights set on one particular deal. Time will certainly tell.

(while we keyboard gm’s sit here, chomping at the bit for some action!)

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Dude has a career ERA over 4.00. Period. End of discussion.

Sorry man, that’s nowhere near the end of the discussion. If anything, it’s the beginning.

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Braveheart (November 11th, 2009 2:28 pm): “Footage of Random after the Braves trade his beloved Kawakami:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02xiDRSFg90“

He jumped sooner than I would have. And I’d've been at the end of the platfom (behind the camera) where the train would have been at its fastest, not in the middle.

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How about a Diaz-Granderson combination in LF or RF. Last year: Granderson v RHP: .275/.887/28 HRs; Diaz v. LHP: .412/1.104/6 HRs. That’s a pretty powerful OF combination; and the non-starting player will be available later in the game. Granderson is a good guy; very intelligent.

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I could buy Owings as a hitter if he came real cheap. Could be the next Ankiel.

As to mediocre or average 4.00 era pitchers, guys would never get to the number of innings Vasquez has pitched if they were mediocre. Mediocre guys fade away as soon as they aren’t cheap anymore. They don’t get 11.5 million a year salaries. Mediocre guys are generally called #4 starters or even #5 starters. At his worst Vasquez was a #3 type.

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P-Town Brave (November 11th, 2009 3:17 pm): “I chose not to answer because with ppl like you, it wouldn’t matter what I say, you’ll just choose to form your own sort of opinion and state that mine is ignorant and that everyone who agrees with me is stupid.”

You’re right — it doesn’t matter what you say, unless you can back it up with relevant facts and valid reasoning. That doesn’t necessarily mean you’re stupid, though — maybe you’re just lazy. Or ignorant. Or prejudiced. Whatever. (Or unless what you say is funny, right, BAS?)

“I still don’t feel as though I’m completely incorrect though as while you said Bobby is the main component, yeah, he is, because even when the Braves could have picked up a bonafide leadoff man, Bobby would choose to pursue the power bat. Thats not just me talking, thats GMs, scouts, and writers among others…”

Cox stopped “choosing” which players to pursue when he stepped down from being GM in ‘91.

“I mean I don’t always get along with Steve, but at least he has some better logic than we don’t run because we don’t have Otis Nixon.”

All you demonstrate here is that you did not read and comprehend my comment. Unless you use the term “Otis Nixon” generically to mean capable base-stealers?

“Oh and let me preface that saying that my meaning was little to none…as in when you have Prado, Escobar, McLouth, and Diaz who can run, but we choose to leave them at 1b…thats where my point comes in…”

Well, I’ve read and re-read this paragraph, but still cannot comprehend it. I’ll leave it to Steve from OH to address.

“AND let me finish by saying that I don’t mean just stolen bases, but hit and runs, going 1st to 3rd…it happens very little in his system”

And here your entire argument breaks down. How can you blame Cox for not letting baserunners steal, and in the same breath blame him for their not going 1st to 3rd on a single? If a runner cannot do the latter, how can you expect him to do the former? And why blame Cox for it?

And how can you conflate those two issues with a hit-and-run, which depends so much less on the speed of the baserunner than on the ability of the batter to make contact? And is most often used to compensate for the lack of baserunning speed?

“who knows, maybe the blame shouldn’t be on Bobby, maybe it should somewhat be on the baserunning instructors and the 3b coach (who is awful btw)…”

Kid, you are so confused. What does the 3B coach have to do at all with SBs, going 1st to 3rd on a single, or hit-and-runs? Or was that a typo?

“Just don’t act like the Braves have been running like crazy all over the universe this decade because they haven’t.”

Again, all you demonstrate here is that you simply did not rean and/or comprehend my comment.

“Thats all, I am done with this conversation…there’s no point left to it.”

As you will.

PS: Except for this: “Thats not just me talking, thats GMs, scouts, and writers among others…”

Yeah, kid, it is just you, unless you name names and cite sources.

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Hey, I was half serious about Micah Owings!

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Not advocating it mind you, but last year in the Peavy dealings , San Diego wanted Escobar included in the deal and the Braves didn’t seem to have a problem with that. If the Braves wanted Gonzalez and they felt Brandon Hicks, who Frank Wren said is already a very good major league defensive SS and who is playing well in the AFL, was a year away from being ready would you include Escobar in the deal? We know that Bobby Cox and the Braves organization has been unhappy with Yunel many times. I think an Escobar, Medlen (Sorry Wayne in Utah) Schafer and a minor league pitcher( not Teheren) and Cody Johnson might get it done.(Remember San Diego already has Kyle Blanks to replace Gonzalez at 1B).
If, the Braves can move Lowe’s contract and we could sign Jason Bay or Matt Holiday we would lose our No.1 draft pick, but we wouldn’t lose a 2nd pick if we signed Miguel Tejada to a 1 year deal, it would be a supplemental pick between rounds.
McLouth
Prado
Chipper
Gonzalez
Bay
McCann
Tejada
Eventually Heyward(Diaz until then)

Vazquez
Jurrjens
Hanson
Hudson
KK

Gonzalez
Moylan
O’Flaherty
K. Calero
B. Donnelly
W. Ohman
Kimbrell

would that be worth losing Yunel?

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Nate every pitcher has good years and bad years unless they are total aces and I have never claimed he is an Ace. But he has been a solid above average pitcher every year but one in the last ten years, not average to mediocre. Poor pitchers don’t get the opportunity to amass his numbers let alone have the ability to do so.
Most pitcjhers will vary in ERA, that’s one of the reasons why it isn’t considered to be an ideal descriptive stat for analyzing production. Another of your strawmen.

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cc rider your proposal is so absurd it neednt even be slammed

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Man, I am never getting in an arguement with Random… Michie-San

Hmm…good luck with that.

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ATLiens: I assume your refering to the Escobar part, that may be true, but there is no doubt that Bobby Cox and The Braves Organization has been unhappy with Yunel often over the past 2 and a half seasons.

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BAS, heck no! Random will “copy and paste” the crap outta me!

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Jeff: All I’m saying is I think Hudson still has at least 5 good years left in him.
Random: Oh yeah? Why should I take anything you say seriously?

jeffrey d (March 14th, 1992 11:42 AM) I spilled my apple juice this morning and cried for 5 minutes

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I think FW’s approach is a good one – take your time and get the best deal. If Liberty does not put any time constraints on him like Time Warner did on JS with the Millwood debacle, we will be dealing from strength instead of dealing from desperation to make a deadline

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DOB (November 11th, 2009 5:06 pm): “Here’s what Frank Wren said at noon today when I asked him about the Braves’ pitching surplus and whether they might benefit from letting teams come to them, letting the market develop, etc:

” ‘We have valuable assets that almost every club here is looking for, so I think we’ll be patient and watch how things develop in the first part of the winter,’ he said. ‘And between now and Indianapolis [Winter Meetings Dec. 7-10] I’m sure we’ll have a lot of other discussions. But we’re not in a great rush to do anything.’ “

. . . . .

Random (October 29th, 2009 8:37 pm):

If it is true that there is a definitely exploitable trade market for Lowe, then there’s no need for him [Wren] to rush.

He can now take his time negotiating Vazquez’ extension, and he can play coy with potential trade partners for Lowe. (Give ‘em the ol’ Towers treatment. )

I disagree with several other commenters here that another deal will follow quickly on the heels of the Hudson extension — at least, not one involving our surplus SPs.

Just a hunch. But I do think Wren will first try to extend Vazquez, before deciding whether to trade Lowe, not vice versa.

If Vazquez will not extend, it’ll be him that’s traded. Otherwise, kiss Lowe good-bye.

. . . . .

Random (October 30th, 2009 12:45 pm):

Imo, it’d be smarter for Wren to just sit back and let the trade market for Lowe develop (bloom and grow, bloom and grow forever).

I’d think he’d get more for him that way, whether it be prospects, bench/bullpen or the very hitter he wants.

I guess it depends on how solid Wren thinks the trade market for Lowe will be. (Or become.)

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aha you mean inconsistent like Lowe 2.56/3.53/2.58/4.47/5.42/ ans those all in the same park??
like I said B$ he is one of a dozen orso guys with ten straight years of 10+ wins and 150+ Ks. guys like Maddux,Glavive,etc. i guess there were thousands of pitchers even more inconsistent who never did that.
All pitchers have ERA fluctuations, and it is NOT a particularly good stat to judge production by because it is influenced to several things the pitcher has no control over including poor defensive teams,and bullpen effects which can vary year to year. ERA+ is an attempt to level the field and add some meaning to ERA, and his plus figures are good.
In the last ten years he had one poor year and efven it was a 92 ERA+ so it wasn’t terrible and that was his first year in a big venue where many good pitchers have failed worse than that. He’d had three years that were average and 6 that were well above average.
yeah if he had a 130 or higher every year he would be a great ace, but i never claimed he was one though at least three and maybe 4 of those years were of ace quality.guy deserves some respect. now i grant that some on here have over reacted and claim he is a true ace,which he isn’t all the time.ok i quit.sorry i got a little heated earlier, but you frustrate me at times hanging on to points that i know you are sharp enough to understand the difference
ciao 4 now

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Might as well call KC the Kansas City Braves….

According to MLBTR they are expected to sign him soon to a minor league contract ~_~

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Read it earlier, McFann.

I read ‘em all, ‘cept for the scroll-worthy.

All made sense, what I’d've expected from ya. Only clarification I would’ve made, had you not posted this last, is that when I referred to tipping location, I didn’t mean that the hitter himself peeked (although that happens; Esco does it regularly). I meant that a hitter’s teammate or base coach or… uses some sign, usually verbal to give location to their hitter. And, this is only possible if a catcher shifts too early.

jeffredy d,

great stuff on the second grade apple juice. Describes the feeling he imparts, perfectly.

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BravesFanChris,

can I get a name? I ain’t that smart.

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BAS–he means Wilson Betemit.

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I’m sorry I’ve had a bad headache all day and it still hurts a bit.

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Apparently though, they see Wilson as a cheap replacement for Teahan.

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MLBTR suggests that Jorge Cantu might be available at 1B. Would the Braves be interested in trading for him, and what would the Marlins require (would the Braves want to trade within their division?).

In ‘08, Cantu had 29 HR, 95 RBI, and a .277 BA. Last season, he only had 16 HR, but he still had 42 doubles, 100 RBI, and a .289 average. Plus he hit .322 against lefties last season.

He will probably make around $5 mil, and he is right handed.

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If Glen Hubbard can help and turn Kelly Johnson around to a degree defensively, imagine what he could do for Uggla.

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I’ve still got my hat in the Carlos Delgado ring for 1B if the price is reasonable.

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jeffrey d</strong (November 11th, 2009 8:56 pm) –

Bay Area Steve (November 11th, 2009 8:34 pm) –

Have you visited page 9 yet?

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Steve from OH, wasn’t Delgado the one who wouldn’t stand for the pledge of allegiance after 9/11? I’m pretty sure it was. That shouldn’t have anything to do with him as a player, but I’m not sure I want him on my team.

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Steve from OH, it was Delgado & it was God Bless America… just looked that up which I should’ve done before I wrote that. Anyways, I don’t bash people for their opinions, but disrespecting the country like that is silly, imo.

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TnBrian–yeah, that’s not cool…

But he seems like a nice guy in his interviews and stuff, fwiw…

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Jeff Schultz says we should trade for Adrian Gonzalez. What do you all think? I know I would love it, but what would it take to get him and if we got him, who would you pursue for the outfield? I am thinking Mike Cameron and sign Wagner. All this of course after trading Lowe just to free up salary.

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Random, yeah, I read that on him. Like I said, I don’t bash on a person for their own opinions because I sure wouldn’t want somebody to do that to me. The whole not standing to respect the American flag went on with him before the 9/11 thing, so whatever. On signing him for 1st, he’s definitely a presence at the plate, but I’d be so afraid of his health & if he could hold up through a full season, especially in the NL. LaRoche over Delgado in a heartbeat for me.

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On that note, I’d be remiss if I didn’t wish our veterans (and active military men and women) all the best on this Veteran’s Day!

(I’d say God Bless but you know how PL gets…)

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Oops — didn’t mean to repeat Goldenglove002’s whole comment.

I guess I’d better give it a rest for now.

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Saw it earlier, Random. You are most certainly not scroll-worthy.

But, I’m too scared to actually engage with you. I just try to push a button or two, and see if I can earn one of those 1000 word, pick every sentence apart, I’m an idiot deals.

I will say, to answer, that I’ve not been to either city. Seen documentaries, and read some stuff. Horrific, for sure (although I support our decision). With such things, humor can’t hurt. At least, when one knows the source, and knows no malice was intended.

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nolie, there are so many factors that factor in to determining who’s good, and who isn’t. Both pitchers and hitters.

You mentioned one of the other factors yourself. Defense.

What would be better as a pitcher, to pitch in a hitters park with a great defense behind you? Or to play in a death valley with guys like Kelly Johnson or worse yet, Dan Uggla behind you?

I’m not making a statement here, just asking. Park adjustment shouldn’t matter as much to Vazquez, since you put so much stock in his K’s, should it?

I mean, even Fulton County Stadium which was nicknamed the launching pad, had a TON of foul ground. So if you made a poor pitch, you probably paid for it with some cheap HR. But if you made a good pitch jamming a hitter, the odds were just as good that you’d bust their bat on a pop-up to the 1B in fould territory. Same could be said for Oakland all those years.

So which was AFC stadium, a hitters park or a pitchers park. I’ve got a handful of HOFr’s that will tell you it wasn’t such a tough place to pitch if you make good pitches. Hell, even Mike Hampton pitched well in Coors Field the first few months of the season. He made pitches.

You locate a fastball on any hitter, and do it in any park, and you’re going to get people out more often than not. Vazquez for years has always been prone to the mistake pitch.

You sarcastically mentioned Lowe as being “inconsistent”? Fine. I can’t argue with that, he has been. But even he will tell you that when he makes pitches, he gets people out. When his sinker doesn’t sink, it’s batting practice time.

Not sure why you have such a boner over sticking up for Vazquez?

Would you vouch for Jason Marqui the same way?

Since 2004 Marquis has pitched 1177.1 innings, giving up 587 ER (4.48 ERA), since 2004, Vazquez has pitched 1260.2 innings, giving up 591 ER (4.21 ERA).

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know. ERA doesn’t tell the whole story. But it doesn’t get much more hitter friendly than St. Louis, and Coors Field. Wrigley (like Cellular Field for the White Sox) can go either way, depending on the wind.

So. Would you consider, Jason Marquis to be an above average pitcher the past 5 years? Just curious.

I hope you realize that this nothing personal. That it’s more of a terminology standpoint. My definition of mediocre/inconsistent might be different than yours. Nothing more. Never have I stated that Vazquez CAN’T duplicate what he did last year. Never have I stated that he surely WILL revert back to another poor season (though you claim he’s only had one of those).

I’ve simply stated that we should either lock him up, or sell high. Because if he DOES have another monster year, you can forget about keeping him. His stock will go through the roof. And if he lays an egg next year, well then we’re pretty much doomed anyhow and then we won’t get compensated, because he won’t be offered arbitration and we’ll receive NOTHING when Wren lets him walk.

So, now is the time to act, regardless of which way one thinks Wren should act. I said, earlier today (actually late last night), that Wren should simply dump Lowe, extend Vazquez and use the free money to sign somebody that can be our cleanup hitter.

HOWEVER, if somebody like Derek Lee could be swapped for him, I’m all for moving him. But if we can’t acquire a sure fire power hitter with cleanup experience (and somebody who WANTS to bat cleanup – unlike Chipper), then Vazquez is more valuble to us on the team. Which is where Lowe’s salary dump comes in.

Make no mistake about it. If Vazquez was 23 years old and under control for the next 4 years, I’d want him to stay. If Hanson was 33 and one year from an expensive free agency, I’d be thinking about moving him.

This is strictly “business”. Many of you think Vazquez was my “whipping boy” all summer. That boat sailed in June. That doesn’t mean that he’s not the best trading chip we’ve got, that’s not young and under control (because obviously JJJ or Hanson – or even Heyward would bring us somebody like Derek Lee in a heartbeat). No thanks. I’ll trade the guy that might not duplicate this past season, and who is going to make a TON of money after 2010 if he does.

Last winter we NEEDED guys who could tally innings. Lowe and Vazquez were those guys. They both did what was asked of them. With Lowe having a few more rough outings (though his quality starts total was outstanding – hate that stat).

But now we aren’t as desperate for innings. JJJ, Hudson and Hanson will get close to 200 barring injury. KK might too.

Kawakami had 156 innings last year. In 2008, that would have been 2 IP away from being 2nd on the team in innings. In 2008, a rookie JJJ had 188 innings and led the team. That total would have been 4th on the team in 2009. Tommy Hanson had 127 IP in less than 4 months (21 starts – slightly over 6 IP per start) in 2009. That pro-rates out to 207 IP in 34 starts.

Like I said. I don’t think we’re as desperate for the innings going into 2010 as we were last winter. We shall see.

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“Well, you do realize he is not a US citizen, and was playing for Toronto at the time he began that practice. That anthem would not mean the same thing to him as to you. (If I recall correctly, he was protesting the US practice of using a part his home (PR) as a bombing range (Vieques), as well as the war in Iraq.)” Random

Well then. One can only assume that to uphold his protest, he gave all of the money to his home country as a charity, that he made playing all baseball games outside of Canada and on US soil that summer, right?

Didn’t think so. That is what is so great about this country. You can make millions of dollars living the “American Dream” and then turn around and protest it and the only thing that happens to you is booing at a baseball game.

Just stand up and pretend. So the people that wanted to feel good about something during war-time (who happened to be paying good hard earned money to help make you a multi-millionaire), don’t get upset.

Do what artists do when winning Grammys or Oscars… rip your government in your acceptance speech. LOL

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Jeff Schulz just wants Wren to trade 5 top prospects away for Gonzalez, so three years down the road he can milk the columns of how poor that trade was, like the Tex trade.

Gonzalez isn’t good enough for what we’d have to give up to get him. Again. Like last year and Derek Lowe, Wren would be better off over-spending for Bay or Holliday, rather than over-spending with a bunch of players that we have a ton of time invested in them and are big parts of our team.

Gonzalez’s last four OPS totals have been .862, .849, .871, .958. His park adjustment OPS totals (just for nolie), have been 127, 126, 139, 166.

LaRoche’s last four OPS totals have been .915, .803, .841, .843, with park adjustment totals at 130, 109, 122, 122 (in 3 different parks combined).

I’d say re-signing LaRoche would cost “less” and give us more bang for the buck than giving up all those players for Gonzalez. Not that Gonzalez wouldn’t be a fantastic addition to the team. He would. But it would depleat out troops in the minors, and almost certainly cost us Escobar. I’ll take my chances with Escobar and LaRoche over Gonzalez and some other option at SS.

Unless he can pull of a Melvin Nieves for Fred McGriff kind of swap, my guess is that deal is NEVER going to happen.

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(N8)
I’m not debating with you any more as long as all you can talk about is raw ERA. Anybody who tries to compare Marquis to Vazques is just out of my league in some way. I just need to hold my tongue about that one.

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nolie:

What’s the history on MARQUIS’ performance as a BRAVE compared to the one year VASQUEZ has labored here?

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DOB,
MOF was a hell of a show, eh? They nailed pretty much every song of the impressive set. I will now be telling all of my friends to go check them out

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Random (November 11, 2009 11:00 PM EST) When you look at his rough ERA this year, its really quite misleading. A 4.67 is obviously a bad year, but outside of 3 really bad starts, he wasn’t that horrible. As most of us remember (and try to forget), he had 2 bad June starts against Baltimore and the Yankees, and another bad one against the Mets in August. For those 3 starts, he gave up 21 ER in 9 IP. If you take away those 3 starts (Completely erase them), which had been quite abnormal for him (and really any pitcher), his ERA drops to 3.86 for the season.

NO! BAD! You can’t just throw out a few of his starts and pretend like they didn’t happen. They did happen. Regardless of how out of the norm they are.

What you can do is look at his DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistics). Look at his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), look at his tRA, etc… See how they compare to his ERA (they’re all lower than), and conclude that with a little better luck his performance results will be a little bit better.

Most people will try to provide some intuitive explanation, but the fact is it’s just fluctuations of chance.

Believe in randomness! Believe in entropy! That’s the way the world works!

BAS! Are you there?

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Good to see Random’s van circling the ol hood again. I was beginning to think Agent Starling had finally caught up with him.

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OK

I have read (well, certainly not all of it, but some of the back and forth) the discussion about Lowe and Vazquez for the past little while.

Here is my non-technical, but fore shure accurate analysis: Lowe is a pretty good starting pitcher, who kept his team in most of his games, thanks to good run support. He had a bad year, but his normal standards. He will probably do better next year.

Vazquez is a pretty good starting pitcher, who kept his team in most of his games, and due to some early poor run support, did not get nearly as many wins as he probably deserved. He had a good year, but his normal standards. He will probably have a slight drop off next year.

I will also do my in-depth analysis of our other starters, as necessary.

Your welcome!

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Holliday. Perfect fit for the Bravos.

Mets and Yankees have down-played it. Giants can’t afford him. Red Sox will probably sign Bay. Cardinals apparently can’t afford him.

Meanwhile the Braves wait in the bushes.

Plays good defense, hits for power. RH-hitter, corner outfielder.

I can’t think of a better fit.

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