12:31 am November 10, 2009, by David O'Brien
November 11th, 20093:52 pm
Again, Javy alone will not provide one heck of a return, it will take prospects as well. now, if Javy had a multiyear contract in place and teams knew they were getting him for more than 1 year, then yes, you might get a huge amount in return, but he isnt signed for more than a year.
November 11th, 20093:53 pm
what is the obsession with right handed hitters? having votto would in no way suck. with a hitter like votto, the side of the plate he stands on should have no importance to you. (DA)
no doubt that so far Votto has hit lefties pretty darn well, but most aren’t that way which is why people keep saying that.
P. W. Hjort
November 11th, 20093:54 pm
Boras, man, he’s ridiculous. Courtesy of Jon Heyman (Page 2):
One highlight in Boras’ annual lobby press conference came when he was asked about his own comparison of Holliday to Mark Teixeira and whether that meant he believes Holliday should also receive $180 million. To that, Boras responded, “I don’t want to put any ceilings on (Holliday),” inspiring a few snickers from reporters (though Boras maintained a straight face).
I agree w/ your entire post, but its just not going to happen.
Derrek Lee isn’t going anywhere w/ that no-trade clause. He LOVES Chicago and I just don’t see him waiving that.
Otherwise, yeah, I could be agreeable to Mike Cameron if he’s batting 7th and then 8th when Heyward comes up.
I however like Atkins at 1b because then you can move him to 3b when Chipper retires and Freeman takes over, which I’m hoping will both be in the same season.
DAP, I agree about McLouth versus Granderson. Although I’d like them to make that deal, I’m not sure that Granderson is any better than McLouth. Mclouth has the club friendlier contract too I think, which would make any such trade make less sense.
November 11th, 20093:56 pm
“Maybe Medlen could close? wheelz007
I’ve thought the same thing. I think it’s a role he could grow into heading towards 2011. But I don’t think they put that pressure on him in 2010. While he doesn’t have the power pitches you typically think of with closers. Neither did Trevor Hoffman.
What Hoffman had, was impeccable control, and a changeup that was devastating. Great arm action on that change up. But he set it all up by spotting that fastball. But guys with less “stuff” have succeeded in the closers role.
I just don’t think Medlen is ready for that just yet. I could be wrong.
November 11th, 20093:57 pm
ou ever use tvtorrents? Much better selection and DL speeds
now you see, I have the opposite impression, especially about selection. there are hundreds and hundreds of shows available most of which are available within hours, plus about every movie made in ages. U torrent is pretty quick for me too at the Pirate. I’ll look tvtorrents over again
Macon Braves (RIP)
The last season or two of Entourage have been sub-par in my opinion. But HBO has been having Entourage marathons late Saturday nights the last few weeks (showing a full season each week) and I was reminded how great the first couple of seasons were. Can’t really put my finger on what’s been different the last couple of seasons but something has just seemed to be missing.
Can’t wait for HBO to finally come up with another epic series (ie Sopranoes, Wire, Deadwood, Rome, Band of Brothers, etc.) but the last few tries have been disappointing in my opinion. True Blood was ok, but not nearly on par with those I mentioned. And I could strangle the guy that dropped Deadwood after the third season (third I think, maybe it was only the second though) to make John From Cincinnati which is quite possibly the worst series HBO ever put out.
November 11th, 20093:58 pm
nolie im just not sure while people continue to think that the braves need a hitter that kills lefthanded pitching, as if that is a weakness for the braves. the braves hit lefties well in 2009. better than they hit righthanders, in fact.
November 11th, 20093:59 pm
N8, thanks, bro.
Why does everyone keep suggesting that Medlen close?? he doesnt have the mentality of a closer. He is way too antsy.
P-Town. I agree, Lee more than likely isn’t going anywhere. Especially with new ownership in place. He just appears to be the perfect fit as a bridge to Freeman, while providing EXACTLY what we need right now. Which is a RH power hitter, that has a track record of succeeding in the cleanup role…. and that defense.
November 11th, 20094:00 pm
plus you don’t need to register, which I prefer
November 11th, 20094:02 pm
im just not sure while people continue to think that the braves need a hitter that kills lefthanded pitching, as if that is a weakness for the braves. the braves hit lefties well in 2009. better than they hit righthanders, in fact.
do you have the ba/.obp./sl/ops for each?
November 11th, 20094:03 pm
“And I could strangle the guy that dropped Deadwood after the third season (third I think, maybe it was only the second though) to make John From Cincinnati which is quite possibly the worst series HBO ever put out.” Macon Braves (RIP)
I actually initially really liked the strangeness that John From Cincinnati brought to the table. But it just simply went nowhere fast. If I remember correctly, DOB initially liked it as well. It was a weird good like Natural Born Killers. By that I mean, when you watched it you kept asking yourself why you were watching it because it was so over the top stupid and ridiculous. Yet you couldn’t turn away. At first.
Eventually I stopped watching. Before they dumped it.
Mitchie-san No. Thank you.
November 11th, 20094:04 pm
No doubt we have to get better offensively to win the East. However, the team that finished the last half of the season is good enough to win the WC. Like N8 said we don’t need to overthink this thing too much. To me getting rid of both Lowe and Vazquez and having to replace their 32 wins conservatively speaking with another duo is a little much for me personally. Definitely one of the other has to go. Someone said,(Mitchie-Sans I believe) that he didn’t feel Lowe could give us 15 wins next year. Well, that is his avg. number of wins for the past 8 seasons.Even in years when he didn’t reach 15 wins his ERA was easily under 4.00 and he should have. Which adds more weight to N8’s assertion that run support means more to a pitcher’s win totals than ERA. (See KK). The JAvy for D.Lee sounds enticing I’m just not sure what to make of 2 guys being swapped who have only one year left on their contracts. The Cubs have deeper pockets than ours. I don’t see them giving him up. He is their CJ. Plus JAvy and Lee have the power to veto any trade deal also. I just think we are one .280 LF who can hit 25 Hr’s + and run, throw, and field and LARoche at 1B (or) one Adrian Gonzalez type at 1B and Diaz in LF McLouth in CF, Heyward in RF. away from contending for the East with our pitching. If we keep one of either Lowe or Javy. Like Joe Giraurdi said, ” Lee can’t pitch every game.”
November 11th, 20094:06 pm
Get outta here lol
November 11th, 20094:08 pm
I like Granderson more than McLouth as a cleanup hitter. I’m not going to look up the contract numbers though as it seems too abstract a possibility to me.
We need a Baba Booey on this blog. I think Lew, the serious guy, is the perfect canidate.
November 11th, 20094:10 pm
I don’t like Medlen as a closer. He seemed to pitch nervously in any tight situations. I like him in long relief or as spot starter a Gonzo -Moylan split….
right here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=ATL&year=2009
in 2009 the braves hit .268/.339/.411 (.750 OPS) vs. lefties and .261/.339/.403 (.742 OPS) versus righties.
they might as well be identical, but they actually hit better vs lefties.
November 11th, 20094:11 pm
Do we really NEED to go over this AGAIN?!
The numbers are incredibly skewed overall by Prado and Escobar…both not LHH, but both also not power hitters.
If our lefties numbers were that much better OR the guys that did so well were Jones, McCann, or LaRoche, then maybe that would make sense, but since they weren’t the Braves need help in that department.
It also wouldn’t hurt to have a lefty who hits lefties well.
November 11th, 20094:12 pm
As to Vazquez not returning value because he has one year left on his contract, good point, but not necessarily. Let’s say that Wren can cut a deal with the Cubs. The Cubs would likely want an assurance from Vazquez and his agent that a new contract was doable. Or have something preliminary worked out prior to the deal closing.
Having said that, I’d rather Vazquez stay with the Bravos.
nolie, to me it’s not for everyday games of the 162 game grind. But if we’re to succeed against the elite LHP and lefty relievers in the post season, there needs to be some balance in the lineup to split Chipper and Mac up.
If for nothing else, to make a manager burn through pitchers going for the lefty/righty matchups in the late innings. Too many games last year, an apposing manager was just allowed to bring in a lefty and turn Chipper around, and then leave that reliever in to face Mac. Both are better power hitters against RHP.
I suspect this is also why LaRoche was left lower in the order as well.
But I’m with you. Last year, I argued round and round with people that Ibanez or Abreu would has STILL been upgrades and helped us win games despite being LH. If I’m correct, Ibanez is pretty much 50/50 stat wise against RH or LH pitching.
At this point, I’d settle for a guy like Adam Dunn in the cleanup spot, even though he’s LH. But to me, for the balance of the lineup, a RH hitter would be ideal.
For example, since you asked for stats. Here are McCann’s splits:
Against RHP: 328 AB, 17 HR, 72 RBI, .308/.368/.564/.932
Against LHP: 160 AB, 4 HR, 22 RBI, .225/.309/.325/.634
In a perfect world, Chipper would be turned around to face the opposing teams “best” LHP in a clutch spot. Then the manager would have to make another move to bring in a RHP for the cleanup hitter (if RH), and then, if they didn’t have another LH reliever, Mac gets to face a RHP or face a lesser LHP.
But with those stats for Mac against lefties, you can see how whether he’s in the cleanup spot or even the 5th hole, our middle of the lineup is significantly weakened against LHP. To me that’s huge. A big RH power hitter batting 4th changes the whole lineup, imo.
November 11th, 20094:13 pm
Atkins will make around 7 million in ARB, only sign him if he is non tendered (Rob)
how would we sign him if he isn’t non-tendered ??
Oh, and I forgot….Matt Diaz lefty killer.
Our main power threats: Chipper, BMac, Nate, LaRoche…
All hit most of their HR against RHP.
P-town, im talking to nolie. feel free not to participate if you dont want to go over it again and give your opinion that because we have sereval right handers who hit lefties so good, thats why we need another one. completely illogical.
November 11th, 20094:15 pm
Probably more than you bargained for, but here goes.
2009 Braves splits:
VS RHP – .261/.339/.403/.742 (.299 BABIP) – 101 HR (2.61% of AB’s), 1.75 K/BB ratio
VS LHP – .268/.339/.411/.750 (.301 BABIP) – 48 HR (2.87% of AB’s), 1.80 K/BB ratio
AS RHB – .271/.337/.404/.740 (.311 BABIP) – 64 HR (2.47% of AB’s), 2.10 K/BB ratio
AS LHB – .257/.340/.407/.747 (.289 BABIP) – 85 HR (2.89% of AB’s), 1.55 K/BB ratio
November 11th, 20094:16 pm
P-town Our main power threats: Chipper, BMac, Nate, LaRoche…
is that weird? since they all probably have at least twice as many ABs against righties?
November 11th, 20094:18 pm
You hit the nail right on the head there!
My earlier suggested lineup:
Chipper (better power LHH)
Bay/Ludwick (both RHH)
Just look at how well it worked out for the Phillies once they split up Howard and Ibanez and went Howard/Werth/Ibanez/Feliz in 4/5/6/7 in the lineup.
November 11th, 20094:19 pm
One quick comment: I think the Braves could acquire A. Gonzalez for Teheren, Bethancourt, Schafer, Hicks and Cody Johnson(They already have a replacement for Gonzalez in Kyle Blanks). The question is would the Braves want to give up Teheren.
One other note: if we trade Lowe and can’t get Bay or Holiday, would a Johnny Damon at $10 mil and a Carlos Delgado at $5 work( I know they are both lefties) but a Troy Glaus at $3-$4 backing up at 1st and 3rd might help out that problem.
November 11th, 20094:21 pm
And for good measure:
VS RHP as RH – .265/.326/.386/.712 (.312 BABIP) – 37 HR (2.22% of AB’s), 2.64 K/BB ratio
VS RHP as LH – .259/.348/.416/.746 (.289 BABIP) – 64 HR (2.91% of AB’s), 1.37 K/BB ratio
VS LHP as RH – .282/.356/.435/.790 (.311 BABIP) – 27 HR (2.91% of AB’s), 1.45 K/BB ratio
VS LHP as LH – .251/.317/.381/.698 (.289 BABIP) – 21 HR (2.82% of AB’s), 2.36 K/BB ratio
Nolie, Escobar’s splits are almost as poor against LHP as Mac’s are. So he isn’t an option to flip flop with Mac in the 5 hole.
Prado on the other hand absolutely destroyed LHP. So perhaps, he is an option to bat 5th and protect the middle of the order.
But by showing how poor Mac and Escobar are against LHP, it just proves how much the secondary hitters on the team have to step up against LHP.
DAP showed that the TEAM hit better technically against LHP. But when arguably your two best hitters in Mac and Escobar are basically neutralized against LHP, something has to be done. Or others will have to step up.
Chipper actually had much better stats against LHP than RHP last year. So maybe managers will stop turning him around. But here are his splits. Actually pretty scary how poor he faired batting LH last year. Yikes.
Against RHP: 329 AB, 9 HR, 39 RBI, .252/.395/.377/.772
Against LHP: 159 AB, 9 HR, 33 RBI, .289/.372/.541/.912
Buck and Kincade about to talk Braves on 680, if anyone wants to call in their favorite trade proposal…
November 11th, 20094:25 pm
Why isn’t Buster Olney believable BH
perhaps because he made a big point of the Braves trading Vazquez to Texas. He has a NTC that includes Texas, and he would have to be pretty stupid to agree to go to such a hitters park the year before FA. Not the first thing I’ve read by him where he sailed on without doing adequate research.
November 11th, 20094:26 pm
I of course would prefer a perfect RH batter to hit cleanup, but it’s most important to get the best player coming to us as cheaply as possible in terms of salary and/or who we traded away, than ensuring he’s RH.
For instance, if Derek Lee (RH) and Mystery better overall 1b (LH) cost us equal salary and both required Vasquez in return, you pick the better overall player.
In fact, I’d suggest that getting a player highly qualified for the cleanup spot in terms of actual power and the fear he puts in an opposing pitcher is more pressing than him being RH or even his AVG/OBP being good. That’s why someone like Granderson or Cruz, who aren’t all that great overall, still would be a reasonably nice fit at cleanup as they do have power and are perceived as a scary hitter, despite fairly poor avg/obp. I think both were even all-stars.
I can’t recall off hand if Granderson or Cruz are RH and have the splits we’re looking for, but better so if they are.
November 11th, 20094:31 pm
All those splits, we do have to remember we only face LHP about 1 out of 3 at bats, or less from glancing at those numbers. RHP is faced 2 out of 3 at bats.
November 11th, 20094:32 pm
P. W. Hjort (November 11th, 2009 2:22 pm): “Do you remember what blog it was on that you were arguing with someone who thought it would be beneficial for Lowe for him to re-structure his contract to something like 4/40? That was one of the funnier arguments on the blog.”
Yes, I do. The fellow meant well.
(His heart, at least, was in the right place.)
ugaaccountant, Granderson is horrible against left handed pitchers, and since 2 of the teams we play against have a few good lefties on their team, he is not the person you want batting cleanup.
November 11th, 20094:33 pm
Which blog is it on?
November 11th, 20094:34 pm
p-town Just look at how well it worked out for the Phillies once they split up Howard and Ibanez and went Howard/Werth/Ibanez/Feliz in 4/5/6/7 in the lineup.
yeah, they could hardly score any runs at all before that.
November 11th, 20094:36 pm
N8DAP showed that the TEAM hit better technically against LHP. But when arguably your two best hitters in Mac and Escobar are basically neutralized against LHP, something has to be done. Or others will have to step up.
since the team hit better against lefties, doesnt that prove that the team DID step up?
November 11th, 20094:38 pm
hank you! I can’t stand people who say “prolly.” (Steve)
you prolly got sum kinda problem
November 11th, 20094:42 pm
Neight But by showing how poor Mac and Escobar are against LHP…
Uh…allow me to butt in for a minute here: Hold the phone, please!
That was 2009 that BMac was poor against LHP. But you look at the seasons before that, and you get a bit of a different story:
2005: 36 AB, 2 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 10 K, .333/.385/.556/.940
2006: 94 AB, 9 2B, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 19 K, .266/.352/.457/.809 (course, when compared to his season totals for that year, those aren’t so good)
2007: 174 AB, 10 2B, 8 HR, 37 RBI, 30 K, .264/.296/.460/.755
2008: 164 AB, 15 2B, 3 HR, 21 RBI, 22 K, .299/.375/.445/.820
So I mean, yeah, they’re not the greatest…but they’re not all poor, either.
“All those splits, we do have to remember we only face LHP about 1 out of 3 at bats, or less from glancing at those numbers. RHP is faced 2 out of 3 at bats.” ugaaccountant
Yeah, but with Happ, Hamels and Lee, 3/5 of the Phillies rotation is LH. Add to that, in a 7 game playoff series, if a team’s best starter (CC Sabathia) is LH, you might face him 3 times.
But for me, I’m still thinking way more along the lines of late innings, when the real chess match begins. Most every team has one really good LH relief pitcher. Look what having both Gonzo and Eric O’Flare did for us in our pen last year.
If we’re too LH heavy in the lineup, the late innings becomes less of a chess match for opposing managers, and more like shooting fish in a barrel (has anybody really ever done that?).
Wayne in Utah
Steve prolly gotsa lot a prollems he needs to werk out.
November 11th, 20094:43 pm
I stand by my prediction that both Lowe and Vazquez will be traded! (Mitchie)
I’ll take that bet, even give you odds
November 11th, 20094:45 pm
That’s fine and dandy McFann. But just like everybody wants to go off of Vazquez’s great 2009 stats (when his track record is mediocre at best other than his K-rat and IP), I’ll go with the recent trend until something changes.
No doubt in my mind, that Chipper and Mac were both pressing more than normal. At least until LaRoche was traded for. So perhaps it was a fluke and they can get back to what they did before last year.
I guess that’s why it’s so important to add some meat to the middle of the order.
November 11th, 2009
they might as well be identical, but they actually hit better vs lefties.”
A funny sidenote to this is that two of our favorite whipping boys, Kelly and Norton, hit MUCH better against LHP, but were used almost exclusively against RHP, where they did exceptionally bad. If Bobby had gone with the numbers instead of convention, we might have good words to say about those two today. Who knows, maybe we even get a playoff berth.
November 11th, 20094:46 pm
I suggest we trade Vinings Jim for Venice Jim. What’s that? Same person? Nevermind.
November 11th, 20094:48 pm
I agree the phillies would be a tough playoff matchup for us, as would the yankees. But with our payroll, i’d be thrilled just to be in the playoffs, and would like our chances with Hanson/JJ/Hudson out there anyway.
I don’t hold out much hope against the premiere LH rp’s in close and late situations. Our lineup as currently constructed is more of a do well over the whole game lineup, than a just get some guys on base and let the cleanup guy work his magic lineup. If we’ve got a guy on 1b and 2 outs and a good reliever against us, I have no expectation that we’ll get that guy in.
This could all change if the right deal falls in our lap, but I don’t want to hold out all winter waiting if a great LH cleanup hitter is available at the right price.
November 11th, 20094:56 pm
Oh, I totally get what you’re saying. Just throwin’ that out there. Huh, believe me, I want a differ’nt cleanup hitter more than any of y’all.
Chipper and Mac were both pressing more than normal.
Ja…you combine the extra pressing with poor eyesight, and well…that’s what you get, I guess. Seriously, though, not a horrid season for a guy who was half-blind. Here’s to next year being a lot like ‘08, when he was coming off his first Lasik…just add s’more RBI and maybe one more double.
November 11th, 20094:57 pm
Braveman, I like Granderson too (and not just because he’s a huge Jayhawks fan).
I just landed in rainy Atlanta. Able to get on a flight six hours earlier than my original flight, thankfully. Gonna write this story while I’m here at the ATL airport, then go to the Monsters of Folk concert tonight at Tabernacle.
November 11th, 20095:02 pm
(when his track record is mediocre at best other than his K-rat and IP) N8)
Nate Nate Nate, still spouting nonsense.
Nah, I aint taking bets. Its just a prediction. I do think its the best thing to do, though.
CB – are you sure – I liked Vinings Jim a lot better
November 11th, 20095:05 pm
Little Toby Keith this Veterans Day.
I approve of your last trade idea
I suggest we trade Vinings Jim for Venice Jim. What’s that? Same person? Nevermind. (CB)
lose a VJ, Gain a VJ
November 11th, 20095:06 pm
Here’s what Frank Wren said at noon today when I asked him about the Braves’ pitching surplus and whether they might benefit from letting teams come to them, letting the market develop, etc:
“We have valuable assets that almost every club here is looking for, so I think we’ll be patient and watch how things develop in the first part of the winter,” he said. “And between now and Indianapolis [Winter Meetings Dec. 7-10] I’m sure we’ll have a lot of other discussions. But we’re not in a great rush to do anything.”
Our lineup as currently constructed is more of a do well over the whole game lineup, (Uga Acc)
my favorite kinda lineup.
November 11th, 20095:09 pm
Flying to NYC in 3 hours. Who’s got the must-do list?
November 11th, 20095:11 pm
Though the “8 guys who can hit 15+ homers” lineup didn’t fare well last year, I wouldn’t be too afraid to go with a similar one this year.
I would rather do that than pay too much for players.
November 11th, 20095:12 pm
Go to Dinosaur BBQ. Ive been to the one in Syracuse a few times and its awsome.
Wren said his last 24 or so hours at the meetings were productive in terms of talking possible deals:
“We had some meetings with clubs yesterday and did some additional talking last night and this morning, so I think we’ve got a better lay of the land from a standpoint of who we match up well with,” he said. “We had some substantative discussions with clubs about particular players. It’s a building block – this is the first step as we go through the winter, to give us kind of the first idea of where we’re going.”
So there’s no rush, I said? No deadline, like Jan. 1, by which you have to have the payroll at a certain number, nothing like that?
“We don’t have any constraints,” he said.”Our first constraint is probably when we have to set our roster for opening day. So between now and opening day, we figure we can get it all figured out. But there’s no rush on our part.”
November 11th, 20095:14 pm
Don’t “do” anything, just see as much of the city as possible. And don’t get lost .
November 11th, 20095:15 pm
Junior signing with the Mariners might mean they will have to non-tender Ryan Langerhans!
Whatever happened to the 2005 version of Ryan Langerhans??? We could use a bench player like that one.
Monsters of folk just played Chicago and didnt know in time to break the plans i had….still am real upset I missed that, should be one hell of a show. Carrie Rodriguez is playing ann arbor the 20th and I’m hoping I’ll be able to make that one.
November 11th, 20095:17 pm
Right on Frank. You are thinking correctly IMHO.
Daslied: The Rock ‘n’ Roll Hall of Fame Annex down in the Village is pretty cool, and only requites about an hour to take it all in. Plus, you’ll be in a great neighborhood when you get out of there (or before you go in).
November 11th, 20095:20 pm
DOB, Has Wren (or anybody on the Braves) openly said what pieces they are looking for? Most of us assume a big bat is first on the list, but has he made any comments or hints about what he’s looking for.
Re: Frank Wren’s patience …
Wah! Wah! Wah! I want everything to happen now, Now, NOW!
I’m still waiting for that Greg Norton for Matt Stairs trade. Get on it!
November 11th, 20095:22 pm
Granderson grew up a huge Braves fan. McLouth lives in Michgan and loves it there why not add Lowe and get a couple prospects back with Granderson would that work?
Steve from OH
November 11th, 20095:24 pm
I mean I don’t always get along with Steve, but at least he has some better logic than we don’t run because we don’t have Otis Nixon. Oh and let me preface that saying that my meaning was little to none…as in when you have Prado, Escobar, McLouth, and Diaz who can run, but we choose to leave them at 1b…thats where my point comes in…
Well, I appreciate the fact that you enjoy debating me and don’t take it personally (not intended to be!), but I do agree with Random. We’ve got only one basestealer worth sending regularly, and dude, Prado and Yunel ain’t him. Sorry. If Cox had the weapons he’d use them. I’d say he’s done the correct thing in this situation by staying put–because by sending those guys regularly you’re never going to be able to attain a good SB%, so there’s really no point in sending anyone but McLouth under most circumstances.
November 11th, 20095:25 pm
down in the Village Plus, you’ll be in a great neighborhood when you get out of there (or before you go in). (DOB)
you might even break out into a spontaneous dance with the Village people,especially is you’re a macho man.Watch out for the cop though, he might pinch you
November 11th, 20095:26 pm
DOB, are you a Centro-Matic fan? Will Johnson, their singer/guitar player/songwirter is playing drums for Monsters of Folk. He’s a great songwriter and Centro-Matic is a great band.
Thanks for the tips, guys. PWH, I’m trying to just see everything I can. No agenda. Going with a native, so that helps. Might try to see Dan Auerbach (Black Keys) tonight at Webster Hall, if we make it in time. But I doubt it. Might just be drinks and late-night exploring…
Wayne in Utah, 5:11 pm … “Though the “8 guys who can hit 15+ homers” lineup didn’t fare well last year,”
Did the Braves have 8 guys hit 15+ homers each last year? It’s not a bad plan if the guys produce. It’s a terrible plan if they don’t. Also, the Braves need Chipper and BMac to hit a few more than 15. If the Braves have 3-4-5 at 25+ HR each, and the rest of the line-up at 15+ HR each, they’ll be just fine in the power department.
But, Prado and Escobar don’t appear to be 15+ HR guys. So, it might not be a good plan after all.
November 11th, 20095:27 pm
Having said that about Granderson earlier, it should be noted that he hit just .183 with two homers and a .484 OPS in 180 at-bats vs. lefties last season (he hit .275 with 28 homers and an .897 OPS in 451 at-bats vs. righties)
While Braves aren’t married to pursuing right-handed power, if they get a lefty I do think they want a lefty who can at least hit decently against lefties. So I don’t know. Maybe Granderson’s injuries took a bigger toll in that area last season, but those are poor numbers vs. lefties, for sure.
November 11th, 20095:28 pm
I’d say he’s done the correct thing in this situation by staying put–because by sending those guys regularly you’re never going to be able to attain a good SB%, so there’s really no point in sending anyone but McLouth under most (Steve)
why would he not send a guy with an 87% success rate if he uses the horses when he has them? he prolly has a prollem, huh?
November 11th, 20095:29 pm
Thank you DOB, exactly what I have been saying all along about Granderson’s splits against lefties.
November 11th, 20095:30 pm
Steve from OH, 5:24 pm … “… so there’s really no point in sending anyone but McLouth under most circumstances.”
And, since teams know that Cox won’t send anyone else but McLouth, it doesn’t make as much sense to send him, either. Opposing teams can, as it were, pitch around him (i.e., mostly fastballs to guys at the plate when McL is on base).
November 11th, 20095:33 pm
Braveheart (November 11th, 2009 12:35 pm): “Why isn’t Buster Olney believable? That’s ridiculous to me. He talks to a million folks involved in the sport, reads a million articles a day it seems, and he reports what’s being said.”
Wwll, when you put it that way, he may have some value as a well-connected gossipmonger, for what that’s worth.
But you’ve got to question his knowledge, and his research and analytical skills when he goes on and on about the Braves trading Vazquez to the Rangers without a single mention of his limited no-trade clause to that division.
November 11th, 20095:34 pm
Add a “Here’s to all our real Troops!” to the end of my last post…
Didn’t Nate have some nagging hamstring problems this year too?
November 11th, 20095:36 pm
I like Buster as much or prolly more than most sportswriters, but I am a firm believer that you can’t put all that much faith in any of them. They are there to entertain, and that’s what I use them for.
November 11th, 20095:39 pm
Well Nate didn’t hit all that well against LHP with the Braves. His numbers were similar to Granderson’s vs LHP. Plus Granderson plays better D than McLouth.
November 11th, 20095:41 pm
In general I think Bobby uses those horses when he has them, but not as much as some other managers do. Of course if you’re a neo-stats guy, you ain’t into it anyway for the most part.No question that it can be an exciting part of the game, if not necessarily a particularly productive one as far as wins are concerned
Well shoot, looks like we won’t see any substantial news for a long time based on those comments by Wren. Not much to say if nothing’s going to happen and he’s going to be tighter lipped this year
Here’s hoping Chipper can fix his LH power swing. He has hit RH pitching to the tune of 1 Hr/17 AB career wise. Even as late as 2007 and 2008 the same. However in 2009 he avg. 1HR/36 AB LH. Facing a LHP 2009 his avg. improved from 1HR/21 AB career wise to 1HR/15 AB. This would suggest to me that it’s not age slowing down his LH swing because he actually improved RH. Therefore it must be something in his mechanics LH which is good news if he can diagnose it and fix it!
November 11th, 20095:43 pm
Well Nate didn’t hit all that well against LHP with the Braves. His numbers were similar to Granderson’s vs LHP. Plus Granderson plays better D than McLouth.
but we already have Nate at a decent price. our dsiposable assets need to be expended in a more needful direction.
November 11th, 20095:45 pm
Kimbrel’s outing today:
5 batters faced, 1 K, 4 BB’s
November 11th, 20095:46 pm
Granderson’s ‘09 splits versus lefties weren’t a fluke. He has a career .210 BA, .270 OBP against ‘em. Across the board, 30-50 points worse than Nate vs. lefties.
No thank you.
Ever been to the Rock Hall in Cleveland?
November 11th, 20095:47 pm
Mitchie san….both Lowe and Vazquez traded? I’ll bet Freeman is traded before that happens. Dude you better get big odds in Vegas on that one.
November 11th, 20095:48 pm
Like the way Frank Wren is letting teams know that we don’t necessarily have to make a move and that are going to have to come to us. Patience is a virtue.
November 11th, 20095:50 pm
It’s not as much Nate as it is getting rid of Lowe’s contract. Also Granderson is signed to a decent contract as well.
November 11th, 20095:51 pm
Isn’t it nice that our GM can take his time and make prudent decisions. Last year, on the other hand, we needed to come up with 4 starters and were rushing through things before the Series was over. Thank goodness for Towers (or Peavy), Burnett, Junior, Furcal and any others that blew us off last year. Wonder where we would have been if we had added any of those guys. Just take your time Frankie and don’t mess up. But we want some action by Friday!!!!!
November 11th, 20095:53 pm
Enter your comments hereKimbrel’s outing today:
5 batters faced, 1 K, 4 BB’s (PW)
yeah, that’s definitely a problem for him
“Nate Nate Nate, still spouting nonsense.” nolie
Sorry for copying and pasting this post of mine from Bradley’s blog, but it applies, and it’s easier than arguing with you. But this pretty much sums it up, imo. But I’ll ask you the same thing I kind of asked Mcfann. If you are so willing to assume that Vazquez is a great pitcher based on one great season, after a track record of mediocre results, are you willing to accept Chipper’s 2009 season as the beginning of his decline, since he’s been nothing short of stellar for the past decade?
Can’t go both ways now. Anyhow, here’s the post for Mark’s blog.
“Trade Lowe, this was a BAD signing in the first place. You don’t give a pitcher that has continued to have a 4+ ERA $65 million.” Joe Casey
This has to be the funniest post I’ve read all night (on both this and DOB’s blog).
Oh, where to start?
Derek Lowe ERA’s by year in recent years:
1999 – 2.63
2000 – 2.56
2001 – 3.53
2002 – 2.58
2003 – 4.47
2004 – 5.42
2005 – 3.61
2006 – 3.63
2007 – 3.88
2008 – 3.24
2009 – 4.67
Javier Vazquez’s ERA’s by year in recent years:
1999 – 5.00
2000 – 4.05
2001 – 3.42
2002 – 3.91
2003 – 3.24
2004 – 4.91
2005 – 4.42
2006 – 4.84
2007 – 3.74
2008 – 4.67
2009 – 2.87
Lowe’s overall numbers from 1999-2009 were 1943 IP, 911 ER (4.21 ERA) with 6 seasons in the AL (Boston).
Vazquez’s overall numbers during the same time, were 2317 IP, 1043 ER (4.05 ERA), with 4 seasons in the AL (1 with the Yankees and 3 with the White Sox). Don’t forget that Lowe was a closer for 3 years in Boston. So while it probably did help his ERA a bit with shorter outings, it did diminish his overall IP.
Now, if you take just the last 5 years before the Braves signed Lowe as a free agent? 1032 IP, 449 ER (3.91 ERA)
If you take Vazquez’s last 5 years, including his stellar one this past year (since you now want to extend Vazquez – which is essentially what the Braves did by signing Lowe last winter), Vaz had 1062 IP, with 483 ER (4.09 ERA).
In Lowe’s final year with the Dodgers (the year that essentially made him a hot commodity), he racked up 211 IP, while allowing 76 ER (3.24 ERA).
Vazquez this past year for the Braves, had 219.1 IP, while allowing 70 ER (2.87 ERA).
So, if you dig deeper, you willing to give all that money and an extention to Vazquez for having a better ERA by .37 of a run than Lowe did in 2008, when the Braves offered him big money?
They have literally been the same pitcher for a decade. They literally had the same numbers over the previous 5 year span, in which you want to extend Vazquez.
They literally had the same numbers in their “walk” year. Vazquez is not in a walk year. But even though the Braves control him for 11.5 million next year, everybody all of the sudden wants to lock him up long term?
That would be no more sound of an investment, than doing it for Lowe the year before. Other than their age, they are literally the same guy in terms of results. Only difference is that Lowe gets ground outs and Vazquez gets strikeouts.
Nobody ever claimed Smoltz was better than Maddux. So I find it hard to believe that it’s that big of a deal. If you want to talk post-season success of a contact pitcher vs. a strikeout guy, that’s one thing. But from April to September, I’ll simply take guys that get guys out. Like JJJ.
You should really think before you type. Because I don’ think you realized when you typed this:
“You don’t give a pitcher that has continued to have a 4+ ERA $65 million.”
…. that A) you pretty much just made a statement in why the Braves shouldn’t sign Vazquez to an extention.
Besides. It was 60 million dollars, not 65.
For the record. I think Vazquez should be given an extention. But I thought based on what we needed, and his recent track record that we should have signed Lowe last winter too. So don’t take my opinion. LOL
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