4:58 pm October 28, 2009, by David O'Brien
October 29th, 20092:20 pm
Jurrjens had an incredible year, yes. Some of his peripherals (the high LOB percentage, for example) might indicate that such a level of success is not sustainable, yes. But there is certainly a chance that his skill set will improve enough to offset any regression that might occur due to some of his “luck” evening out. I don’t think he’s a finished product yet, so we don’t really have norms for him.
As Braveheart said, he may be one of those pitchers who can stand having high inverse FIP/ERA numbers. On the other hand, he may improve his game to the point that those inverse conditions no longer occur. Too soon to tell.
October 29th, 20092:24 pm
Chuck UGA……..”Other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?!” PS….on your keyboard you will see where it says…”Caps Lock”……tap it once please.
The only negative about Jurrjens is that he walks way too many guys. He almost walks as many guys as he K’s but seems to work out of the messes he creates. He’s a very good pitcher that will get better, so leave it at that & quit bitching back & forth over whether or not he’s an “ace”. Who gives a flyin fu**? He’s good & that’s all that matters, plus Vazquez is the number 1 guy for 2010 anyways.
October 29th, 20092:26 pm
Oh, and my ass Atlanta doesn’t need an everyday cleanup hitter for next year. Does this Neyer even know what he’s talking about? I think not. You want Mac in that spot again? Not me & I’ll bet Chipper is praying the team finds an every day cleanup hitter too.
October 29th, 20092:27 pm
What? An entire blog without the mention of the evil Rush Limbaugh? It thought this was a political blog? Go figure…….. Shouldn’t sports writers use their forum for their own political views?
Seriously, its a myth that we come here to get away from politics and agenda driven drivel. We actually come here for political guidance……..from a sports writer.
October 29th, 20092:31 pm
CJ: “Listen people. Jair Jurrjens is NOT an ace, not even close to it.”
For a starting pitcher, there a few things that really and truly matter. You look at ERA, innings pitched, and quality starts. Quality starts matter because it tells you how ofter a pitcher gave his team a good chance to win the game. K/9 and all that other stuff you mentioned… it’s meaningless. There are different ways to arrive at positive result. Some guys strike out a lot of hitters, others pitch to contact (or did Greg Maddux not strike out enough hitters to qualify as an ace in your book?).
All that matters in the end is how often a starter keeps the other team from scoring, how consistently he does it, and how many innings he gives you. That’s it. The rest is window dressing.
In 2009, Jair Jurrjens was:
#3 in NL ERA (2.60)
#2 in Quality Starts (25… second only to Lincecum’s 26)
#10 in innings pitched
Since you like ancillary stats, we’ll throw a couple of those in there:
#9 in WHIP (among pitchers with 200+ inns)
#3 in fewest HR’s allowed (200+ inns)
Jurrjens had a lower ERA and more quality starts than any of these NL starters:
Congratulations… you’re assertion that Jurrjens “isn’t even close” to being an ace is officially the most absurd thing I can remember hearing on this blog (and that’s saying something).
This team can win without a true cleanup hitter.
Need more speed on basepaths.
Play better Defense.
Less Blown Saves
But its better to go ahead and get a real cleanup guy like most major league teams have….
October 29th, 20092:35 pm
I would be interested in getting your take on Medlen. I feel like we are wasting his talent in long relief in the bullpen. The guy proved he could start and be dominate at the AAA level. I know he was roughed up a bit in his starts but the guy is young and he can’t develop if he’s only pitching in long relief once a week.. What do you think???
Mess YOU up, grhrhrl!
Good post i agree i with you.
And to add JJ’s last 10 starts he pitched 7 or more innings 9 times and had a 1.76 ERA in that stretch only got 5 wins, no run support if this guys get another run in support he is a 20 game winner. He is close to being a Ace, if he has repeat succuss next season he is one in my book.
October 29th, 20092:37 pm
TnBrianHe almost walks as many guys as he K’s
his K/BB is 2.03, which isnt terrible. there have been plenty of pitchers be very successful without extremely high K/BB ratios. glavine is one who never had high numbers there. jurrjens isnt lincecum when it comes to striking guys out, but its not like he is jon garland or something. he strikes out his share of guys.
October 29th, 20092:41 pm
TnBrian (October 29th, 2009 2:24 pm): “The only negative about Jurrjens is that he walks way too many guys. He almost walks as many guys as he K’s”
Jurrjens struck out more than TWICE as many batters this season as he walked (2.03x).
(Boy, is my ego really pumped now!!!)
October 29th, 20092:44 pm
I just find it very funny that someone actually thinks he isnt close to being a Ace type pitcher. LOL everyone has already listed why he is close to being a Ace its pretty clear cut no if ands or buts about it.
October 29th, 20092:49 pm
This Vent is so lame:
Chipper played MORE games this year than our catcher who is 12 years younger!
Chipper didn’t have to go on the DL with blurred vision, either. Gimme a friggin’ break. Thought we WANTED Chipper to play more…
October 29th, 20092:53 pm
PWillie (October 29th, 2009 2:27 pm): “What? An entire blog without the mention of the evil Rush Limbaugh?”
Hahahahaha! Think again, PeeWee!
October 29th, 20093:01 pm
Just wanted to throw some team stats out there
The Braves hit into the 5th most double plays in the majors with 142
13th in majors with 263. Batting Average
29th in majors with only 58 total stolen bases
22nd in majors with 149 homeruns
15th in majors for Fielding Percentage .985 (96 errors)
16th in majors in Stolen bases Allowed with 97.
3rd best in Team ERA in majors with 3.57
22nd in Saves with 38 out of 60 oppurtunity’s ……
1st in least homeruns allowed in majors with 119
6th in Strikeouts for our pitching staff in majors
October 29th, 20093:06 pm
VaBravesFan 1st in least homeruns allowed in majors with 119
October 29th, 20093:08 pm
16th in majors in Stolen bases Allowed with 97.
HA! So we were even in the Top Half!
October 29th, 20093:09 pm
WEREN’T even! Doggone it! This second I hit submit…
October 29th, 20093:13 pm
The saves are what bothers me the most our bullpen blew 22 games ……… thats a huge amount…..
And no speed leads to no stolen bases and alot of double plays, also alot runners being held at 3rd cause the lack of speed.
Errors… if the team played just lil better defensivly it would make a ton of difference…
Improve those problems right there this team can make the playoffs with out a real cleanup hitter.
October 29th, 20093:14 pm
Wait — we had a “263.” batting average??? That would put us in first place by a large margin — all other teams have a batting average waaaaay below 1.000!!
October 29th, 20093:15 pm
What would have been the reaction if the urine splashed on the Koran instead of a painting of Christ? It’s pretty easy to joke on Christians but would he have the guts to bust on Islam??? Something tells me he is too much of a coward to try that joke.
October 29th, 20093:16 pm
VaBravesFan Improve those problems right there this team can make the playoffs with out a real cleanup hitter.
Nngg…or we could get greedy and improve those things AND get a true cleanup hitter!
October 29th, 20093:18 pm
I’m all for that lol
October 29th, 20093:19 pm
KC “(or did Greg Maddux not strike out enough hitters to qualify as an ace in your book?).”
Greg Maddux struck out far more batters than you are implying. You could make a case for Maddux as the greatest of all times based on how far above league average and other league leaders he was.
October 29th, 20093:23 pm
Well I think the blog and the poll prove that nobody was wanting the Braves to just give away Jurrjens. Everyone wants at least an MVP caliber bat (not potential but proven bat), under 30 years old, with an affordable 4+ years contract. Nobody has intentionally suggested we buy a rental player for him.
Anyone who has mentioned someone who is on a short contract has done so without actually listing out the contracts and saying why it was good. I take that to mean they were just listing players in theory that are as good or better than Jurrjens.
October 29th, 20093:25 pm
thought this was interesting
the Braves had the 3rd most IBB in baseball only behind the Cardinals and Dodgers with 58 free passes
Chipper was IBB 18 times which ranks 5th most in majors its obvious even if Chipper was so bad this year teams were still scared to pitch to him…..
I’m finished with the Jurrjens talk because we all know what he is… a very young, good pitcher that will get better.
VABravesFan, they do need more speed in the lineup, but a mid-market team like the Braves don’t have the money for both a power hitter & a speed demon. McLouth is that guy for 2010 as far I can tell, just missing that RH 30 plus HR guy.
October 29th, 20093:26 pm
I’m telling you, they’ll let anyone post a vent these days. That one was just stupid.
October 29th, 20093:29 pm
VaBravesFan And no speed leads to no stolen bases and alot of double plays, also alot runners being held at 3rd cause the lack of speed.
speed has something to do with the SB (obviously) but a little less to do with the GIDP. double plays arent always a bad thing, because they mean there is someone on baseball time the and you strikeout much. the braves’ OBP and K stats would back that up.
who hit into more double plays than the braves? i bet there are at least a couple of very good offensive teams in front of atlanta.
as for the saves, that isnt likely to improve that much. even teams with top notch closers tend to have alot of blown saves. id be happy if the braves could stay under 20.
yes, better defense would help alot….the #1 area the braves need to improve in (my opinion) is slg%. the OBP and BA is very good, slg% isnt. a cleanup hitter would help that alot. it seems like maybe your saying forget a big hitter, lets get a fast guy who can play defense. i disagree with that. give me slg% first please.
October 29th, 20093:31 pm
Random trade talk alert! If the other team agreed, which of the following deals would you make if you were Frank Wren (I tried to match up contracts reasonably close, unless the deal is with the Yankees):
1. Lowe for Carlos Lee
2. Lowe for Nick Swisher
3. Vazquez for Derrek Lee
4. Vazquez for Carl Crawford
5. JJ for Ryan Braun
6. JJ for Prince Fielder
7. Kawakami for Juan Rivera
8. Kawakami for Conor Jackson
9. Kelly Johnson for Jeff Francoeur
For what it’s worth my answers would be yes, no, yes, maybe, yes, maybe, yes, yes, kidding.
to clarify, of course GIDP is a bad thing, but if your team or a certain player has high GIDP numbers, that doesnt mean they are a bad team or player. pujols grounds into alot of double plays.
October 29th, 20093:35 pm
RC ill play
1. Lowe for Carlos Lee NO
2. Lowe for Nick Swisher YES
3. Vazquez for Derrek Lee YES
4. Vazquez for Carl Crawford NO
5. JJ for Ryan Braun YES
6. JJ for Prince Fielder NO
7. Kawakami for Juan Rivera maybe, add another player
8. Kawakami for Conor Jackson YES
9. Kelly Johnson for Jeff Francoeur ha
October 29th, 20093:36 pm
I know the braves need a hitter but there is no chance they trade jj it would be beyond stupid to trade a stud like him when he is only 23 who cares if he is a boras client sign that guy and be done with it you do not trade great talent when you are wanting to win a ws you build off of that (see glavine,smoltz,maddux,avery) nuf said
1. Lowe for Carlos Lee – no
2. Lowe for Nick Swisher – yes
3. Vazquez for Derrek Lee – no
4. Vazquez for Carl Crawford – yes
5. JJ for Ryan Braun – yes
6. JJ for Prince Fielder – If he was already signed to a reasonable 4+ year deal
7. Kawakami for Juan Rivera – no
8. Kawakami for Conor Jackson – no
October 29th, 20093:39 pm
never would i trade lowe for nick swisher guy is done,vazquez for crawford hell yeah, no fielder when you got freeman coming ryan braun how bout lowe and kawakami for him
October 29th, 20093:41 pm
Interesting to see how different others opinions are from my own. Just out of curiosity, DAP and ugaaccountant, why no to Carlos Lee but yes to Nick Swisher??
October 29th, 20093:42 pm
Your right i’m just pointing out that team hit into alot of them. Were a team that doesnt count on the long ball so baserunning smarts and speed are important. Yes we do need that big bopper but i dont think we’ll get a true big bopper, yes will prolly land another 20 hr guy maybe. Just saying if the team’s starting pitching has repeat success (or even better) and we improve in those catigories were a playoff team. just think about it. 5 less blown saves, few more stolen bases, more productive outs, less errors add it up that changes the standing a whole lot.
But for sure we need a Big Real Cleanup Hitter, but were not getting Bay or Holliday
Who is gonna be the big bopper, that warrents a Cleanup man title.
October 29th, 20093:43 pm
and to what that guy said earlier the reason chipper played more games than mccann is that for one he had eye problems that he is having surgery and lets not forget he plays a very career shortining position at catcher if anything chipper needs more games i swear that guy comes up with the worst injurys to be out for can anybody say roids
October 29th, 20093:47 pm
1. Lowe for Carlos Lee No unless Astros eat remaining 10 mil on Lee
2. Lowe for Nick Swisher Yes Bargain Contract Swithhitter with power
3. Vazquez for Derrek Lee No D.Lee final year of contract
4. Vazquez for Carl Crawford Yes if we can resign him to long term
5. JJ for Ryan Braun yes cant say no
6. JJ for Prince Fielder no big body long term iffy….
7. Kawakami for Juan Rivera no..
8. Kawakami for Conor Jackson no…
9. Kelly Johnson for Jeff Francoeur lol
i love the braves but i think and have always thought this team is chipper heavy dont get me wrong he has been a great player but he needs to just leave the game and let some younger guys come up and prove they do it lets not forget they braves have made a point of trading career brave except this guy and if i have to trade someone trade chipper and we should have kept texiera
Very stupid. BMac only played 6 fewer games than Chipper did. So if not for the DL stint, BMac woulda played more. And that was such a fluke thing, anyway…not like he pulled a muscle by stepping on the base funny or something.
Apart from the ‘roids part, I agree with your comment.
October 29th, 20093:48 pm
Lee’s contract is quite expensive. I believe we have better options for far less money in some of the other guys you listed. All the no’s are worth consideration, it’s a good list.
October 29th, 20093:52 pm
Carlos Lee makes 55.5 million over next 3 season’s
Derek Lowe makes 45 million over next 3 season’s
who’s is gonna be responsible for that leftover 10.5 million on Carlos Lee it sure as hell isnt gonna be the braves.
Stop talking about Trading Chipper and Roids…… its rediculous. Ok let the young kids play who gonna play 3rd base we have no up and coming future 3rd baseman in the system….. I do agree we should have tried harder to keep Tex.
P. W. Hjort
October 29th, 20093:53 pm
Good quote for those of you citing Jurrjens’ numbers:
If I have a wish when I die, it is that no person can ever know how a baseball player has done over anything less than 4 years or his career, whichever is shorter. I also wish that we didn’t have to weight the years when we do a projection because that causes people to reject a simple average for a player’s career or for the last 3 or 4 years, which is just a [sarcastic] TAD more accurate for projecting player performance than a pitcher’s last 21 innings.
Fair point about Lee’s contract. I figured since you are offloading the $45 million owed to Lowe it might make sense, but Lee is still making an extra $3.5 a year.
Why no to Derrek Lee due to one year left on contract, but ok with Crawford (if signed to extention)? Would your opinion on Derrek Lee change if he was open to signing an extention? Or if it came out that Vazquez is NOT open to an extention? (Vazquez also has only 1 year left on his contract.)
October 29th, 20093:56 pm
VaBraveFan (October 29th, 2009 3:13 pm): “The saves are what bothers me the most our bullpen blew 22 games ……… thats a huge amount…..
Improve those problems right there this team can make the playoffs with out a real cleanup hitter.”
But improvements in all three of those “problem” areas would require seven or eight new players, not just one (a RH clean-up hitter with power).
In other words, easier said than done.
Wayne in Utah (WWJJD)
October 29th, 20093:59 pm
No on Carlos Lee. Too much of a stiff, and too high of a contract.
Would you trade Lowe straight up for Todd Helton?
October 29th, 20094:00 pm
RCwhy no to Carlos Lee but yes to Nick Swisher??
for me, because swisher plays better defense, is much younger, much cheaper…WAY cheaper, swisher is a better OBP guy with similar power.
Well i’m banking on them resigning LaRoche. I think Vasquez has a very good chance of getting a extension. Also Rochy will command less than D.Lee contract wise.
Crawford will add Speed and Defense which is much needed. 50 stolen bases with 15 homers and a 290+ batting average. That deal should be made if the Braves can come to a new contract aggreement with Crawford prior to the trade.
October 29th, 20094:02 pm
VaBraveFan (October 29th, 2009
3:25 pm): “Chipper was IBB 18 times which ranks 5th most in majors its obvious even if Chipper was so bad this year teams were still scared to pitch to him…..”
Or it could mean that, as bad as Jones might have been, McCann was even worse.
I would be willing to deal up to two of our starters, if the total return was a strong hitter and maybe a couple of good prospects. I would love to see Medlen or (GASP, did he say that!) Reyes get the 5th spot in the rotation.
Marc in FL
October 29th, 20094:05 pm
Laroche will make half as Derek Lee and only be half the player, what a deal!
October 29th, 20094:07 pm
random Or it could mean that, as bad as Jones might have been, McCann was even worse.
except that he wasnt. everyone knows this….not sure what made you post that.
October 29th, 20094:09 pm
I’m guessing Vazquez’ chances of an extension are tied to Lowe’s contract going away. You won’t have one without the other. And even then, I’m not so sure about an extension. Unlike Hudson, Vazquez has had a lot of forgettable seasons. This season was a revelation, but he may have to at least approximate it to merit an extension.
October 29th, 20094:10 pm
Wayne in Utah
Thats does make sense finacially and for the future. After Heyward, Freeman, Minor and a few others our system falls way off talent wise. get a Legit Big Bat and 3 or 4 top tier prospects, might make sense, but one injury to the rotation and were screwed.
October 29th, 20094:11 pm
Uh oh. Mike Minor left the game after pitching 1 inning and throwing only 16 pitches. Haven’t heard why yet.
I completely disagree on dealing more than one of our established starting pitchers. The Red Sox from last season should help emphasize the point that you can NEVER have too much starting pitching. Medlen and Reyes are great insurance policies if one of our starting 5 gets injured. But if you start the season relying on one of them, you simply cannot afford any injuries to the other members of your starting rotation. And unfortunately, all 5 guys staying healthy an entire season is a VERY, VERY rare thing these days.
October 29th, 20094:13 pm
Even in Vasquez’s average years, his numbers were ok. One thing we know where getting for sure with Javy, durability with tons of innings and strikeouts. Also he pitched in the AL alot of those year against the DH. He wants to be in Atlanta, and he is important to JJ’s development as well.
October 29th, 20094:15 pm
KC:Congratulations… you’re assertion that Jurrjens “isn’t even close” to being an ace is officially the most absurd thing I can remember hearing on this blog (and that’s saying something).
And you comparing JJ to guys like Tim Linceum, Johan Santana, Josh Johnson, Cliff Lee, and Dan Haren is the most absurd thing I have ever read on this board. Those guys are true strikeout throwing machines…they would be #1 starters on most any team in MLB.
Again, you cannot rely on fielding dependent stats like ERA and WHIP to solely judge a pitcher’s performance. If you look at JJ’s fielding independent ERA it is a full run higher than his actual ERA. If you look at the FIP of the other ACES that you mentioned their FIP ERA is much lower than JJ’s. He isn’t an ace and he likely never will be one unless he starts striking out a lot more hitters and walking a lot less.
FWIW, I think Jair Jurrjens is a wonderful young pitcher and I think he has a bright future ahead of him. But his trade value will likely never be as high as it is right now – and if the team could get a young stud hitter for him they should jump at the chance.
“I would love to see…Reyes get the 5th spot in the rotation.” (Wayne)
Wayne, Wayne, Wayne. Say it ain’t so!
October 29th, 20094:17 pm
I didn’t realize Crawford had only 1 year left on his contract. He would also need to come pre-signed in order to trade Vasquez, because Vasquez does not “feel” like a rental player. I feel we will resign him just after Lowe is traded. All of this should happen by Christmas.
My favorite Lowe trade is actually even more feasible than the ones posted here. Lowe for Mat Gamels, use his salary difference straight up to offer Bay 4 years at 15 million per. If he says no thanks, go a different direction but that’s my favorite realistic scenario.
October 29th, 20094:20 pm
Wayne also wants to have Ryan Freel leading off and playing all 3 OF positions….
The Brew Crew would do that trade but they wont take all of that 45 million. Gamel is young and will be in team control like JJ. We would have to eat a good amount.
October 29th, 20094:22 pm
ugaaccountant, i wouldnt call that realistic.
Rammerjammer – I’d rather pay 10M per season today and lock Vasquez up, than wait until next year and have to pay him 15M per season. If he performs like this 2 years in a row, the yankees type teams would be all over him as a free agent. I’ve seen enough to be confident he’s at least a #2 starter the next few years. And a #2 starter is easily worth $10 million a season for his mid thirties.
The only reason I’m so willing to part with Lowe for just 1 prospect is because we have so much #1 SP depth. I say we have 4 #1’s with Hudson, plus a good mid rotation guy in Kawakami, and 2 projected mid rotation guys in Medlen and Minor. Lowe is worth 10-12 million comfortably, but he just happens to be on a team that really doesn’t need him.
October 29th, 20094:24 pm
Is it that the brewers can’t afford Lowe’s contract or getting Gamels?
Gamels is no longer an A+ prospect. He’s now like a B+ prospect. I only use him because he’s a 3rd baseman I know the name of and plays for a pitching weak team.
October 29th, 20094:29 pm
but I stopped smoking the Chipper lettuce and believing he was 1999 Chipper a long time ago, why haven’t some of you? —P-Town
maybe because we are smart enough to know that 2006-2008 he had the highest BA, second highest OBP and third highest S% in baseball for those 3 years.. Not too shabby and it wasn’t really all that long ago now was it?
Sure he had a bad 2009 and is getting old, but why all the nastiness? Happened to Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron too dude. And to Eddie Matthews at an even younger age.
He’s made financial compromises cause he wants to retire a brave so talking about trading him is pretty foolish. Ungrateful wretch!
October 29th, 20094:34 pm
no your right, Brewers are a team to look at. They would do that swap, but there not just gonna take that 45 million without us paying some of it. Gamel i like him he plays 3rd and 2nd, if Chipper or Prado goes down you gotta guy with some potentail power to fill in. But no team will just take his whole contract. only exceptions are the Yankees,Mets,Redsox the money is not a problem teams… lol If that was the case you think the Blue Jays would have giving away Vernon Wells for a bag of balls, but they cant cause of that loaded contract.
October 29th, 20094:35 pm
And Minor’s changeup is rated as the fourth-best “secondary pitch” from players drafted this yea (DOB)
too bad his fastball is rated as the 44th best primary pitch, huh?
Bisher was right y’know. The Braves system is sinking fast.!!!
glug glug glug
October 29th, 20094:36 pm
I agree totally
Add Chipper’s numbers up for the past 4 years and see the crowd of players around him, you will be surprised by is OPS. OBP. AVG.
October 29th, 20094:38 pm
i dont think the brewers would want lowe’s contract.
Not only did I pick the Phillies to win the WS, I put $100 on them to win it. At +170 odds, that’s a great bet, and I’ve never bet on a baseball game in my entire life.
The Phillies are a great team. Very solid. Their hitting is better than the Yankees top to bottom. They can score almost at will. Their plate discipline is ridiculous, especially late in the game. And, they’re playing the damn Yankees, who I will never root for.
I can’t believe only 2 ESPN guys picked the Phils to win the Series.
Go Phils (hopefully that’s the last time I have to ever say that).
October 29th, 20094:39 pm
DAP except that he wasnt. everyone knows this….not sure what made you post that.
He was probably trying to get to me. But it won’t do him any good. So pitchers would rather pitch to BMac, that doesn’t prove anything. You’ve seen the way these managers treat him in the All-Star Game–like he’s not that big of a deal. Besides, a lot of the times when the loyal opposition iBB’d Chipper to get to BMac it came back to haunt them.
October 29th, 20094:41 pm
We know ERA does not mean everything in the judgement of a pitcher,but it still is the best judge for a starter. (CB)
nah, can’t agree with that one.
October 29th, 20094:42 pm
Bad news, B.C.: rumor is that the Braves trade Prado to the Phils to back up Utley as their utility guy, LOL.
October 29th, 20094:43 pm
ugaaccountant and VaBraveFan,
I think it’s a pretty big stretch to say that Gamel “plays” 2nd or 3rd. He is currently listed as a 3b for Milwaukee, and got a little time there this past season, but every scout who has seen Gamel says that he is brutal with the glove at 3b(like, Ryan Braun bad) and thinks he will have to move to either 1b or an OF corner sooner rather than later. He’s also a left-handed bat, which means the future of your team is VERY left-hand heavy. McCann, Heyward, Freeman, Schafer, and Gamel are all left-handed hitters, vs. only Escobar and Prado as right-handed hitters (referring only to relatively young players here, excluding McLouth, Chipper, Diaz, and the possible addition of Bay).
October 29th, 20094:44 pm
Do you think Jurrjens would accept a “hometown discount?”
I know who his agent is, but if Jurrjens wants to stay, I’d be willing to bet he’d take less than what Boras could get him. He and his dad grew up huge Braves fans. I’d think that would account for something. I’m just saying, I don’t think it’s set in stone he’s leaving as a FA at the end of his arb years because of his emotional ties to the team.
You asked, “Would you ever trade Jurrjens?” My response is, No, Never, because of that reasoning. What do you think??
Your right about that…. McCann was better than Chippper all year. But the pitchers fear Chipper. Chipper is one of the top five smartest hitters in baseball. Just because he isnt a slugger doesnt mean he isnt dangerous. Chipper will have a great season, he might only hit 15 homers but look for lots of singles and walks and a high AVG and OBP. He needs to hit like he did in 08, dont worry about the power just rack up those hits.
October 29th, 20094:45 pm
Now you know Freel couldn’t handle all the outfield…..you would need at least ONE more guy out there for sure…
DAP (October 29th, 2009 4:07 pm): ” ‘Or it could mean that, as bad as Jones might have been, McCann was even worse.’
“except that he wasnt. everyone knows this….not sure what made you post that.”
To lead right into this (thanks for biting, btw — I figgered it’s be the Fann):
Or it could mean that, as bad as Jones might have been, McCann was even worse. At least as perceived by opposing pitchers/managers. They apparently still considered Jones to be a more dangerous hitter than McCann, despite the statistical evidence of Aug ff.
And that (both their perceptions and their analysis) imo had much more to do with Cox keeping Jones in the 3-hole than any ludicrous charges of stupidity, senility, nepotism or favoritism on the part of Cox.
Jones was still considered by Braves opponents to be a more dangerous hitter than McCann. What do you think they’d'a thought if Cox moved Jones to the bottom of the order? The jig would have been up.
Not funny man!! They can have Kelly since he’s supposed to be the next coming of Utely and all. Utely can teach him his tricks….
Steve from OH
October 29th, 20094:48 pm
We know ERA does not mean everything in the judgement of a pitcher,but it still is the best judge for a starter.
Eh, I don’t know. I’d want to look deeper than just that. Pretty low correlation year-to-year…
October 29th, 20094:49 pm
“Do you think Jurrjens would accept a “hometown discount?”
I know who his agent is, but if Jurrjens wants to stay, I’d be willing to bet he’d take less than what Boras could get him.” – Bobby’s Cox
I agree that Jurrjens would likely be willing to take less to stay with the Braves than what Boras could get him on the open market. There are two important follow up questions that I don’t know the answer to though.
1. How much less if JJ willing to take to stay with the Braves?
2. Would the Braves be willing to even pay that much to keep JJ?
Because unless he completely loses his edge by then (Boras I mean), Boras will get JJ MUCH, MUCH more than anyone else thought he’d be able to get.
If the Braves deal Prado, then we get to keep “you know who!”
B.C., LOL, brother.
‘Course, there are people out there now who don’t know the back-story who are furiously typing a response to tell me how stupid it would be to make the trade. Ah, well…
October 29th, 20094:51 pm
29th in majors with only 58 total stolen bases (VaBF)
they had 66 stolen bases a couple of years ago and outscored the Mets who had 200. SB have a pretty low correlation to runs scored.
Vazquez’ inconsistent history troubles me. This season was off the charts, though all acknowledge the raw materials were always there. It’s a gamble either way, because you’re right that a repeat performance in 2010 means he’s unafforable. Tough call for Frank.
With Hicks tearing it up in AZ, that means we can deal Escobar for a bucket of balls.
October 29th, 20094:53 pm
What would we get for Prado? It would have to be alot to hand the Phillies yet another offensive weapon.
October 29th, 20094:54 pm
SB have a pretty low correlation to runs scored.
Bloggers feel that NEED for SPEED, nolie, LOL. It’s exciting! It unnerves pitchers! It wreaks havoc! and like that!
I’m having a Carl Crawford attack, I think. Wayne’s mention of Ryan Freel probably brought it on.
I believe ERA is the best judge for a starting pitcher. Mainly depending on how many Innings he pitched. But if u pitch 200+ innings and have a ERA below 3.00 your pretty damn good.
October 29th, 20094:56 pm
Vazquez for Carl Crawford
October 29th, 20094:57 pm
rammerjammer – I don’t have the numbers in front of me to lay it all out, but Vasquez was always a guy who’s numbers indicated he’d be better in a ballpark like Atlanta and in the national league. And when he came here he was better from day 1 until day 162.
He also had been generally unlucky with a higher than average batting average for balls in play, and strand rates. Wheras Jair Jurrjens has been luckier than average so far in general. I don’t have exact stats for either, but Vasquez seems to be at least good, even if he’s not as great as he was this year. And he was great, better than Jurrjens imo.
Yeah…but that’s OK. If they keep thinking they cann get away with pitching to BMac, that’ll just mean more doubles, no?
Random thanks for biting, btw — I figgered it’d be the Fann
The Fann bit…but not more than she could chew.
Jones was still considered by Braves opponents to be a more dangerous hitter than McCann.
That’s obvious…and I’m not gonna say that BMac is more dangerous than Chipper because, let’s face it, Chipper’s a much more accomplished hitter–been around longer. But I do find it a little odd that BMac wasn’t walked more when he had someone other than Escobar batting behind him…
(Course, if they cann walk a 6-time All-Star to get to a 4-time All-Star, why can’t they walk a 4-time All-Star to get to Escobar?)
October 29th, 20094:58 pm
You called it, here come the trade talks. This should be on MLB Trade Rumors in about 20 min.
How about Freel…..he’s a Carl Crawford-lite!
October 29th, 20094:59 pm
I don’t disagree w/ your statement, but ppl are still talking about him like he’s the end all be all and not only that, the reason he irks me so much is that he isn’t worth what he’s being paid and yet he’s going to take it instead of deferring it so that we can build a better team around them.
“This team can win without a true cleanup hitter.
Need more speed on basepaths.
Play better Defense.
Less Blown Saves”
#1- I’m not certain we can
#2- Doesn’t matter, we won’t run
#3- Is attainable, but not w/ Chipper aging at a rapid pace and Diaz albeit better this past year in one of the OF slots. Also depends on who we get for other OF corner position. Up the middle should be better though considering we finally have a solid core of BMac, Yunel, and Martin.
#4- Also won’t be too much different no matter who we have
#2 and #4 are solely on the basis that Bobby doesn’t call for hit and run’s or bases to be stolen and because he has never over the course of his career learned how to properly use a bullpen when he has to.
My 5 “current” Braves untouchable list: (Heyward doesn’t count)
Who’s in your five?
But if u pitch 200+ innings and have a ERA below 3.00 your pretty damn good.
Maybe as the end result for that season in question, but in regards to predicting future performance, not really…and besides, there are way more important things than ERA to look at.
October 29th, 20095:00 pm
I’m just saying it would be nice to have a legit basestealing threat. It throws pitchers off and can change a game by alot. We prolly have no one that will steal 20 bases next year on the team. McLouth can but he has had some injury problems and that part of his game might decline. And its not just about stealing bases its about better baserunning singles into douibles and double into triples, roundtine grounder turned into infield hits those small things go along way.
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