2:03 am October 22, 2009, by David O'Brien
October 23rd, 20097:03 pm
ugaaccountant……..your 4:20pm is neglecting the point that Kelly Johnson isnt going to re-sign with the Braves for $2.3 mil. I’d be willing to bet anyone on here $100 that if Kelly re-signs with the Braves (whether by negotiations before the Braves deciding whether offering him salary arbitration……..or by an arbitrator)…….that he WILL NOT get less than $3 mil.
If the Braves non-tender Kelly, then it is a moot point. However, if Kelly Johnson is wearing a Braves uniform come Spring Training, then I’ll wager anyone on here $100 that his 2010 contract wont be for less than $3 mil. That is how confident in my knowledge of the arbitration process (and any negotiations before the Braves officially decide whether to even tender Kelly a contract).
October 23rd, 20097:05 pm
P. W. Hjort
I wasn’t trying to be smart.
P. W. Hjort
October 23rd, 20097:11 pm
I didn’t refresh the blog before I corrected myself. I didn’t see your post. You are correct, Hyde recorded 2 outs.
October 23rd, 20097:12 pm
Actually Iglesias is not far off and will be in Boston next season. For the Braves it would fill a huge hole in the bullpen and with all the GB pitchers we have Iglesias would still provide great D at SS. The Braves would then be able to sign a Holliday or Bay without having to worry much about the BP. Plus they would still have several pieces to trade as well.
October 23rd, 20097:13 pm
I’d rather keep Derek Lowe and use Kawakami as a middle reliever…….than to trade him for garbage and eating part of his contract.
Whether it is in Spring Training or during the season, some team is going to be desperate enough to trade for starting pitching. Also, injuries happen.
I’m amazed that some of you on here act like Lowe is Barry Zito. Now Zito’s contract is virtually untradeable.
October 23rd, 20097:18 pm
Thats a big assumption right there that we would be able to sign Holliday or Bay. What happens if those two players choose other destinations similar to the way CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett did last offseason. Now we are without our best and most consistent offensive player from 2009 who isn’t an unproven like Iglesias. Not to mention I don’t think Boston is really looking to trade Bard right now which was my whole point in the first place. Its not a trade I think either team would make.
October 23rd, 20097:41 pm
So say if we were to trade Escobar to Boston for Bard, Iglesias and Westmoreland.
We could then trade for a guy like Adrian Gonzalez, we could then offer Kawakami, Medlen, Freeman/Westmoreland, Rohrbough and B. Jones
Sign Jason Bay/Matt Holliday – 6 yr/90 mil contract.
Extend Tim Hudson – 3 yr/27 mil and Javy Vazquez – 4 yr/48 mil.
Re-sign Mike Gonzalez – 3 yr/15 mil.
McLouth – CF
Prado – 2B
Chipper – 3B
Gonzalez – 1B
Bay/Holliday – LF
McCann – C
Heyward – RF
Iglesias – SS
Ross – C
Diaz – OF
Infante – Super Utility
Conrad – 2B
Young – OF
Vazquez – SP
Hudson – SP
Jurrjens – SP
Lowe – SP
Hanson – SP
Parr/Redmond – LRP
Hyde – MRP
Acosta – MRP
O’Flaherty – MRP
Moylan – SUP
Bard – SUP
Gonzalez – CP
October 23rd, 20097:46 pm
ncscoots I’ve never recovered.
Haha, I don’t blame you…
October 23rd, 20097:55 pm
Paul Lentz -
All I see you doing is talking about how it’s a “waste of money” to have Kelly Johnson on the bench, yet you present no empirical evidence to suggest why it would be a waste of money.
Production is production, no matter where it comes from. If it comes from your ace or the 13th pitcher on your staff, the MVP 1st baseman or the 3rd string utility player, it’s all the same. It’s not worth more because of the player’s position, it is what it is.
Hypothetically speaking, let’s say the Braves offer Kelly Johnson arbitration and he comes out of the negotiations/hearing with a $3.6 million 2010 salary. Just make that assumption and stay with me, we’re in hypothetical land right now.
What, then, would he have to do to be worth that $3.6 million salary? Assuming clubs pay $4.5 million per WAR (as they did in 2008 and 2009), he’d have to be worth 0.8 WAR or 8 runs above replacement.
We’ll assume that between pinch-hitting, defensive replacements, spot starts, and getting in there for injured players, Kelly gets 300 PA’s. Could be more, could be less. I doubt they’d use him for less than 300 PA’s, though.
Anyway, let’s also assume he plays 600 defensive innings. Since his bat is more valuable than his glove, you’re more inclined to give him a high PA/DI ratio. Let’s also assume every one of those innings is at 2B. It isn’t inconceivable to assume he’d play one of the corner OF spots or even SS in a pinch, but I think he’d probably be generally limited to 2B.
For my purposes, I’ll create two scenarios. One where he performs like he has in his career and one where he performs like he did in 2009 with the bat. It’s extremely reasonable to think that the truth is a lot closer to his career numbers for very intuitive reasons. Plus just looking at his BABIP and other hit-luck metrics, you’ll see that he’s due to regress towards the mean in 2010, which is a lot better than 2009. But for conservatism’s sake, let’s just do two scenarios.
In the first, we’ll give him a .340 wOBA, his career mark. In that case, he’s 2 runs above average. Add 10 runs for replacement level over those 300 PA’s and you’ve got 12 runs above replacement with the bat.
wOBA includes SB runs, but it doesn’t include non SB base running. Over the past 3 years, he’s averaged just over +2 non-SB EqBRR, so add two runs on top of the 12 and you’re 14 runs above replacement level offensively.
According to +/-, he’s worth -1 (slightly less than this, but I’m being conservative here) run over 600 innings.
Figure in the positional adjustment (it’s really +1.25 but we’ll call it +1) and he’s a +14 run player or +1.4 win player. Clubs pay $6.3 for that player, even as a bench player.
Now, let’s assume he performs like he did in 2009 with the bat, .306 wOBA. This would be worth 6 runs below average over 300 PA’s. Add the 10 replacement runs, the 2 non-SB base running runs, the positional adjustment, and subtract the fielding, and you’ve got a +6 run player, or 0.6 wins. Clubs pay $2.7 million for this player. He wouldn’t be worth his salary in that instance.
Exactly how good does he have to be with the bat to be worth his salary, assuming he plays 600 defensive innings and gets 300 PA’s? Well, we need 8 runs total. You get 10 from replacement, 2 from base running, 1 for positional, and -1 for defense. So -4 runs compared to average with the bat makes him exactly worth his salary. A .317 wOBA gives him -4 runs over 300 PA’s. The question then becomes, what are the chances that Kelly Johnson posts a .317 wOBA or better?
Well, he posted a .323 wOBA in 2005, a .363 wOBA in 2007, and a .346 wOBA in 2008. His .306 wOBA in 2009 is a product of some fairly awful hit-luck. In fact, that BABIP is .064 points lower than his career average. Give him even half of the BABIP difference back and he’s worth more than that $3.6 million figure I submitted.
I used extremely conservative measures in all of these calculations. Basically, I think it’s overwhelmingly probable that Kelly Johnson would be worth more than whatever potential salary he would receive in arbitration. Johnson is the same player he was in 2008 minus a great deal of luck. If that doesn’t rear it’s ugly head again, there’s no reason he can’t be a very valuable commodity.
October 23rd, 20097:56 pm
It’s just an idea, I know it’s not possible just an idea. Here are some ideas that could possibly happen though.
Derek Lowe, Brandon Jones and Cole Rohrbough to the Astros for Carlos Lee.
Kelly Johnson and Manny Acosta to the Diamondbacks for Conner Jackson.
Sign Latroy Hawkins – 3 yr/12 mil contract.
Re-sign Mike Gonzalez – 3 yr/15 mil contract.
October 23rd, 20098:04 pm
Heard on XM radio this morning that the Braves are in talks with a few teams involving Lowe. Two of those teams are in serious talks with Atlanta. Look for D-Lowe to be wearing another uni in 2010. Gotta go,,,,
October 23rd, 20098:07 pm
Forgot, one of those teams is the Astros is what they said as one of the more serious teams involved. Others they just aren’t sure, but speculated Boston or Detroit. Bye for now,,,,
October 23rd, 20098:13 pm
The Sox would make the trade because they need an established ML SS. Iglesias is still unproven at this point and Westmoreland is too far away. Jay
So the Sox need a ML SS to contend? Where does that leave the Braves with Iglesias who in your own words is “still unproven”? You don’t think the Braves are planning on contending next year?
October 23rd, 20098:28 pm
I feel cabravesfan coming on…
October 23rd, 20098:29 pm
If the Padres are trying to slash payroll (and that would be the only reason they would trade Gonzalez) why on earth would they trade for someone that is making almost $2 million more then Gonzalez next year??
So with that team I posted above you don’t think we’d compete?
October 23rd, 20098:31 pm
Why do I feel VJ is really Ed McMahon?
If they can’t afford to take on 2 mil then they need to be contracted plus they shed the payroll the needed when they traded Peavy.
Jay – my question to you is why does Boston need a MLB SS but the Braves don’t?
October 23rd, 20098:33 pm
Jay12033 – why would they want to trade their best player? Top make you happy?
my point was that if they are going to trade Gonzalez, it will NOT be to take on more payroll- they would trade him for a slew of prospects…they are not going to contend for a few years, they know it, and they are acting accordingly…that being said, I feel there is no way they trade him at all.
October 23rd, 20098:35 pm
CB – the phone is a marvelous invention – won’t need it a week from tonight…
October 23rd, 20098:42 pm
First, in this you wouldn’t miss a Yunel Escobar. Second, we don’t know what Iglesias would give us offensively but defensively form all reports he’s second to none!
October 23rd, 20098:51 pm
Do you two make fun of us over the phone?
October 23rd, 20098:52 pm
jay, I had no clue Enrique Iglesias played SS for a minor league club.
October 23rd, 20098:53 pm
What would they make fun of, Soph? Did you read Shultz’s piece on Mat Ryan?
Second, we don’t know what Iglesias would give us offensively but defensively form all reports he’s second to none! Jay
Sounds like Brent Lillibridge to me.
No way the Braves go into the season with an unproven 19 year old at SS. The Braves have absolutely no one in the minors to come in if the kid can’t cut it. Like you said, Boston won’t do it and neither will the Braves.
October 23rd, 20098:59 pm
I that offense Brent Lillibridge is all you would need but he’s far from Lillibridge his bat is much better that that. Think Omar Vizquel
October 23rd, 20099:00 pm
cab – good because that would hurt my feelings.
VJ – so you do make fun of some of us! It’s ok, sometimes it’s well-deserved.
October 23rd, 20099:02 pm
Bat – I’m sure they laugh at you know who. I don’t want to get him started so I won’t say the name.
I haven’t read the Schultz piece but I’ll check it out.
October 23rd, 20099:03 pm
Soph – I have no idea (postbeforeyou) who we would make fun of…just general philosophies…
October 23rd, 20099:04 pm
I can provide names…
October 23rd, 20099:07 pm
“I” take “Offense” that anybody would laugh at “Us”.
October 23rd, 20099:08 pm
lol, I had a feeling that person was on the list. He has cab going today.
You should provide initials! We can make it a guessing game. That would be fun.
October 23rd, 20099:10 pm
I think that would be way too easy
Bat – good piece by Schultz. Dungy compared Ryan to Peyton – that’s pretty cool.
Ryan = cool as a cucumber. That’s why I love him.
October 23rd, 20099:13 pm
Well I figured someone whose name starts with P is on the list. I would put the last name’s initial too but that would give it away. Although the P will probabaly give it away…
October 23rd, 20099:15 pm
CB – I never laugh at you – now, cabravesfan, on the other hand – well, you know how young people can be…
And, I think we all know the most likely candidate for “us”
October 23rd, 20099:19 pm
VJ, any good food in Savannah that you would recommend- our next trip in Nov.?
VJ’s right- I laugh at him all the time
the list would be long and distinguished…well, long anyways
Yeah, I enjoyed it too, and to think, I had major reservations about drafting him. Shows what I know. Some of the commentary kills me, such vitriol. Oh well, same as it ever was, I suppose.
October 23rd, 20099:21 pm
cab, should we make a top 10 list?
October 23rd, 20099:22 pm
CB – I can handle Virginia a lot better than Georgia – I have made one trip to Savannah, in conjunction with a Myrtle Beach trip from Richmond, about 10 years ago.
October 23rd, 20099:23 pm
CB – I lied – that was Charleston – the last time I was in Savannah was probably 2983
October 23rd, 20099:24 pm
Bat – I was all for it when they drafted him! I know a lot of people wanted to draft Glenn Dorsey.
I was watching Sportscenter today and almost everyone picked the Cowboys this weekend. Apparently, Romo’s going to have a breakout game.
I hear you!
depends on if you feel like spending all night hearing about it from those we chose to honor…
1983! My year.
October 23rd, 20099:25 pm
2983? Wow, what’s the future like? Do the Braves ever win the World Series again? What about my Trojans?
VJ, no problem. You guys probably think I weigh about 800 lbs the way I talk about food,not big at all.
Soph – I wonder who the San Francisco experts are picking…
depends on if you feel like spending all night hearing about it from those we chose to honor…
Oh, it’ll be worth it! Come onnnn – do it! I know who #1 is. Any bets?
October 23rd, 20099:27 pm
Soph – interestingly, I picked the Niners and weighted them more highly than my opponent in our weekly pool…
Ugh, VJ – let’s not get him started on his precious ‘boys. Although, I hope he’s hanging out here on Sunday if the Falcons win. That would be fun.
October 23rd, 20099:28 pm
That’s because I actually watch them play
Soph – there is Geoffrey Q, or whatever his name is – don’t quite get him…
October 23rd, 20099:29 pm
cab, they probably already know, most rears know they are.
Obviously dismissing the Falcons is in vogue. Perhaps a Super Bowl ring, and a sleeveless hoodie for coach Smith, would put an end to it.
October 23rd, 20099:30 pm
Geoffrey! I know him. The Toys R Us giraffe, right?
October 23rd, 20099:33 pm
By the way, he spells his name jeffrii dii these days. Torii Hunter style.
October 23rd, 20099:43 pm
somehow, I just don’t think they do
October 23rd, 20099:44 pm
someone explain to me why Boston is having Casey Kelly in the AFL as a SS. That is such a waste. I think it is obvious to everyone but Kelly himself that his future in baseball is as a pitcher
October 23rd, 20099:50 pm
What about my Trojans? (CBF)
double check B4 use
October 23rd, 20099:52 pm
brian, I’m sure I read they would give him a shot at SS if he signed.
October 23rd, 20099:53 pm
ummm, i don’t follow…
October 23rd, 20099:56 pm
It’s spelled J-E-F-F-R-E-Y. Not with a G.
October 23rd, 200910:01 pm
Yeah, don’t insult Geoffrey the giraffe by associating him with jeffrey/jeffrii.
October 23rd, 200910:03 pm
It’s just preseason but the Hawks looked horrible tonight.
October 23rd, 200910:04 pm
Hey….didn’t Toys ‘R Us go out of business? Geoffrey the giraffe is going through dumpsters nowadays. Or treehouses or something
not the football “Trojans”
guess that one didn’t fly
October 23rd, 200910:05 pm
Last time I saw the score they were down by about 30 and their leading scorer had 12.
October 23rd, 200910:06 pm
Nope, they’re still around. And, so is Geoffrey – see link above.
October 23rd, 200910:08 pm
Meadowcreek is winning!
October 23rd, 200910:10 pm
No way…I just checked the score and it was 35-0
RHR (October 23rd, 2009 12:06 pm) –
Et in Arcadia, ego.
PS: Buster Olney? Pffffft.
October 23rd, 200910:11 pm
nolie – she was just putting you on the spot…
Oh, this is what I was thinking of
But still…when’s the last time you’ve seen a Geoffrey commercial?
October 23rd, 200910:12 pm
Ok, I was kidding. And, it’s 49-0. Isn’t Grayson supposed to be really good though?
Dacula won vs. Brookwood. They must suck this year.
October 23rd, 200910:14 pm
Do you know why the Dacula/Brookwood score was highlighted in gold on the AJC scores? I mean, I know we’re awesome, but why’d they do that?
October 23rd, 200910:17 pm
Because it was being broadcast on the radio – 790 AM. They usually highlight the ones that are either game of the week or on tv/radio.
I’m sure they broadcast it because of Brookwood not Dacoooola. So, don’t let it go to your head.
So, don’t let it go to your head.
Uhh, who won?
October 23rd, 200910:20 pm
I told you – Brookwood sucks this year. Look at them, 4-4? And, one of those 4 wins is against Meadowcreek.
I know y’all beat Parkview and they suck this year too.
jeffrey d (October 23rd, 2009 11:06 am): “Keep in mind Chipper was hitting over .330 well into the season. It’s not like he woke up one morning in June and suddenly and permanently felt his age. He was 37 before the slump and he was 37 during the slump. His problems were all mental. For his entire career, save two seasons, he’s been a great hitter. He’ll be fine.”
I was with you all the way to “mental”.
I don’t think that was it.
I think it was a combination of fatigue — no days off, ’cause Cox kept players on the ML roster who weren’t able to play and give Jones a blow now and then — and inadequate line-up protection (which imo especially affected his power).
But overall, well done.
October 23rd, 200910:21 pm
By the way, what’s the proper way to say Dacula?
Duh-Q-lah or Duck-oooo-lah
October 23rd, 200910:24 pm
Everyone who’s not from here mispronounces it. They think Dracula and call it “dah-q-luh.” Or your second spelling of “duh-koo-luh” Boring story – Dacula got its name because it’s between Decatur and Atlanta so they decided to mix the letters.
October 23rd, 200910:25 pm
I have nothing to compete with high school football commentary – and I will totally miss my guys playing tomorrow, because I am doing two extra hours on the final Saturday GRE class in the ATL – will rely on updates from someone before she heads off to play beer pong…
Crazy Trades McKnee
October 23rd, 200910:27 pm
Freeman, McLouth, Medlen, one of R. Delgado/Rohrbough/DevVall, and Canizares for Bam Bam.
Scratch that…it’s not between them. Then I don’t know why they picked those two.
October 23rd, 200910:28 pm
Red-bud tree fell across the driveway a few minutes ago. Will have photos up tomorrow.
No high school football for me either- the curse of an all-girl school
October 23rd, 200910:29 pm
jeffrey d I mean, I know we’re awesome, but why’d they do that?
October 23rd, 200910:30 pm
As usual, Crazy Trades McGee ahead of the curve…
October 23rd, 200910:32 pm
I never cared too much for Bam-Bam. Really get annoyed with Barney and/or Betty having to get that “it sure is handy having the strongest baby in the world for a son” line in EVERY FREAKING EPISODE…
Steve from OH
October 23rd, 200910:33 pm
I vote we deal the farm for Triple T. Because he’s a hitter, not a quitter, baby.
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