2:03 am October 22, 2009, by David O'Brien
October 23rd, 20093:06 am
You misunderstood, I dropped the class haha. It was way over my head.
Ahhh. Life in the south…
Steve from OH
October 23rd, 20097:34 am
If you take away Kelly’s first 6 at-bats upon his return from the DL (when he went 5 for 6), then his second half stats look TERRIBLE.
So you’re saying that if we take away Kelly’s good AB and look only at his bad AB that his stats will look bad? A bold assertation.
October 23rd, 20097:47 am
HoracioAlgae, Adrian Gonzalez would be perfect, but I can’t imagine what SD would want in return & that’s if they’re even looking to trade him. That Towers guy is gone so maybe the new GM would bait him. You put him at 1st & then go out & sign a OF like Willingham/Nady… solid lineup. Doubt that all happens though.
October 23rd, 20097:51 am
Imagine what damage that lineup could do, especially if CJ returns to his .300 plus avg.
October 23rd, 20098:06 am
Yesterday, I supined a similar scenerio about PRINCE FIELDER then using CHURCH, DIAZ and JOHNSON around McLOUTH and got bashed by the braineacks that troll on here. Like you, I postulated the cost might be too high in any event. The upshot is I like your thinking. Keep up the good work.
October 23rd, 20098:22 am
richbrave, I don’t know what’s to get bashed about… did anybody here this time a year ago predict that we’d end up with McLouth & LaRoche? That Wren has already shown he’s pretty slick & can surprise you with some good trades and signings.
October 23rd, 20098:54 am
ugabrave-Yeah, PWH is one of the more rational bloggers. But he IS here pretty regularly, so like the rest of us, he likely has issues.
October 23rd, 20099:26 am
What about seeing what it would take to pry James Loney from the Dodgers and including Freeman in the deal. Loney is a young proven firstbasemen in the majors.
October 23rd, 20099:36 am
good call Lew (no offense PWH)
October 23rd, 20099:38 am
No thanks on Loney, he has no power.
October 23rd, 20099:39 am
A few of us have more issues,read PL and Mitchell last night?
October 23rd, 20099:53 am
Thank God the ALCS is moving out of Anaheim!!!! I couldn’t take one more inning of UberAss Scott Boras in the background of the centerfield camera shots of the batter. On his cellphone…wise-ass grin on his face. Way too symbolic for me…
October 23rd, 200910:04 am
So glad the Angels pulled off a win last night! Did NOT want the Yankees winning this thing…especially in Anaheim.
You have a full count, now, Angels–but this time you don’t want the walk.
October 23rd, 200910:06 am
Is something wrong with Heyward? I noticed he hasn’t played a game in the AFL in a while. Or is this just how they rotate things in that league?
October 23rd, 200910:24 am
AK – Heyward strained his butt, so they’re just being cautious with him.
October 23rd, 200910:32 am
Watching First Take this morning and seeing Matty Diaz on the show was quite a surprise. It was not a surprise to see Skip Bayliss rip into him about the pickoff play.
What are the braves plan for Diaz in the future? What is his contract status? potential for starting in the outfield next year?
October 23rd, 200910:34 am
Prado if you will recall had a serious drop-off in his level of play when he started having those headaches and dizziness. After those were resolved he started returning to the way he was playing before those bouts. Anyone who is a decent observer of baseball talent can see that Prado is the right guy for us at 2nd.(FW thinks so, and some team- mates thought he was the MVP of the team). Prado seems to always have good AB’s, even when he makes outs he usually will hit it hard somewhere. And I don’t have the statistics to prove it but seems to bear down even more with 2 strikes on him, unlike alot of hitters who are dead once they get behind in the count with 2 strikes on them. KJ is not as bad as his detractors make him out to be (I am a detractor)but I feel(subjective reasoning) that Prado will even improve next season if he remains healthy. I don’t forsee KJ being with us next season. He doesn’t hit well enough to overlook his defense at 2nd like an Uggla. If I were him I would get that hitting coach from AAA to work with me this off season.
October 23rd, 200910:42 am
with McLouth leading off I cant think of much damage.
October 23rd, 200910:47 am
i have to keep reminding myself that prado is only 25. it seems like he has been around forever, but hes got alot of MLB production left in him. its not a given, but at 25, youd at least expect him to maintain his performance for awhile. weve got a good one, folks.
October 23rd, 200910:56 am
It amazes me how many people when doing their proposed lineups, just continue to pencil Chipper into the 3-hole. Unless he completely rebounds and finds his power stroke again (and certainly some more consistency with RISP and other clutch situations), he will hurt this team i the 3-hole more than he helps it.
Who out there thinks at age 37 with out some artifical “help”, that his numbers will continue to climb over the next couple of years?
He’s overpaid for what his production will be over the length of the extension. That being said, he needs to be on this team. He’s a leader. He’s the former face of the franchise and a fan favorite.
But Bobby needs to make his lineup with the current version of Chipper in mind. Not Chipper circa 1999 or 2008.
I’ll say it right now (been saying for months, but I’ll repeat it). If Chipper doesn’t rebound to something more similar to what we’re all used to, and Bobby keeps him in the 3-hole. This offense will sputter again, regardless of who bats around him.
Hopefully, he rebounds and my concern will be irrelevant.
October 23rd, 200911:01 am
N8, youre right, but you know chipper will bat third for the rest of bobby cox’s career. besides, i think if chipper can keep getting on base at a near .400 clip, he wont kill us in the 3 spot. i for one do think he will hit better in 2010.
October 23rd, 200911:06 am
Keep in mind Chipper was hitting over .330 well into the season. It’s not like he woke up one morning in June and suddenly and permanently felt his age. He was 37 before the slump and he was 37 during the slump. His problems were all mental. For his entire career, save two seasons, he’s been a great hitter. He’ll be fine.
October 23rd, 200911:09 am
N8, when the Braves have a better option to hit 3, then you might be able to make a good argument against using Chipper’s declining skills there. However, that’s unlikely to be the case in 2010, regardless of any offensive moves in the offseason. A banger at 4 will go a long way towards reviving Chipper’s performance, not that I think he’s going to win another MVP at his age. But the man can still hit, in my opinion.
October 23rd, 200911:12 am
Well, I wasn’t screaming for WREN’s neck last year, and I won’t this off-season. Unfortunately for us, WREN has learned to be more secretive in his planning. Less information for us, but less egg on his face when deals don’t work out. And he won’t have to deal with the old PADRES GM.
So maybe we get a deal for ADRIAN GONZALEZ, who knows. I do note AG’s BA has declined as his HR totals have escalated. Someone, coaches or GONZALEZ himself, has made the decision to go for the gusto in regard to his personal approach to batting.
October 23rd, 200911:13 am
Let me remind you that there are 535 people in Congress.
My experience leads me to believe it is more likely you were informing , rather than reminding, the majority of your readers.
October 23rd, 200911:14 am
and certainly some more consistency with RISP and other clutch situations N8
What?? Chipper hit:
-.282 with runners on
-.333 with RISP
-.313 with RISP and 2 outs
-.444 with the bases loaded last year
Oh, and he also had an OBP higher than .400 in each of those situations and SLG higher than .500 in each of those except with runners on (.455). Statistically, Chipper only sucked when the bases were empty.
October 23rd, 200911:17 am
Good call, Bat.
October 23rd, 200911:18 am
-44? What happened?
October 23rd, 200911:20 am
Someone used premadona in a vent today. It has to be someone on here.
Aw really? I think it got a lot of pub on here and people are voting it down because we’re joking about it. Either that or they just think I’m stupid. Or both.
October 23rd, 200911:23 am
I saw that! But I really think it was just some stupid guy (I know I know…”What’s the difference?” But I mean some stupid guy not associated with us)
October 23rd, 200911:27 am
I saw that Lentz was off the medicine last night and on the blog. That, or the stake in his heart jiggled loose!
Regardless, the odds are good that Lowe is trade bait if Wren re-ups Hudson. The Bravos don’t need six starting pitchers, so… Lowe’s age, contract and predictably decent numbers makes him candidate #1, in my book. Kawakami, as part of a package, is #2. But the Bravos benefit much more by moving Lowe.
Kelly Johnson may well rebound, but the odds are very good that it won’t be as a Brave.
We need thay righty power bat, Paulie. Other teams need pitching, and Wren’s in a position to offer it.
Prado, barring some implosion, is going to start at 2B.
Naw, I think people on here just voted it down in fun. The late night crew must’ve made a push yesterday night.
October 23rd, 200911:30 am
If you were going for popularity, jeffery d, you should have disparaged the U S Congress, certain winner.
October 23rd, 200911:34 am
Previously, my beef with management retaining Chipper was his run of injuries and the games missed because of those injuries.
This season, Chipper gave the Braves (I believe a team-leading) 143 games. Yes, his numbers were off, and that may or may not be an indicator of age. Still, we can’t necessarily expect Chipper to produce offensively like he did when he was 27. But… If he plays 140 games next season, gives the team 20 plus homers and 80 plus ribbies, I’d say that’s pretty solid production for a 3B.
October 23rd, 200911:35 am
Soph, I’m thinking the Falcons put a serious beat down on the Cowboys this weekend.
October 23rd, 200911:41 am
It amazes me how many people when doing their proposed lineups, just continue to pencil Chipper into the 3-hole.
It amazes me how many people write out proposed lineups in any order. I mean, what is that? Unless your name is Bobby Cox or you are a sports writer, just stop it. For the love of humanity. Stop it.
October 23rd, 200911:42 am
Jeffrey D – It’s odd, stats normally win arguments here, but if it relates to being “clutch” then the board just ignores stats. For instance, the David Justice thing. I’m sorry but a few good at-bats don’t outweigh the evidence of his pathetic overall postseason stats.
Also, defensive stats and ratings are ignored if a player ever made one error that “looked really bad”.
October 23rd, 200911:45 am
Bat – I hope so! I don’t know why but I keep thinking this might be a trap game for the Falcons b/c I know everyone’s looking forward to the Monday night game vs. the Saints next week.
October 23rd, 200911:47 am
Lentz, you want to talk about stats after the All Star break? Take away the last two weeks for Prado and you have this:
AB.244 OBP.282 SLG.352 OPS.634 Lower in every category than Johnson.
That’s 48 games. You couldn’t find anyone who thought Prado should be the starter in 10. -keylargo
Are we seriously going to compare the stats of someone who barely played to someone who played practically everyday when not out of the lineup with that headache problem he had? I know Lentz can say some things that are just stupid but that doesn’t mean he’s wrong with everything. Since we are going to get selective with stats lets go back to 2008 when KJ was still starting. From June 1- Aug 31 KJ had .238BA, .314 OBP, .342 SLG, .656 OPS. That was 77 games. I wonder if we could have found anyone who thought Kelly Should be the starter with those numbers.
October 23rd, 200911:48 am
Guys. I’m not saying that Chipper CAN’T turn it around. I’m saying that until he does, he’s not the best option for the 3-hole. Period.
I’ve voiced my opinion on it all summer long, and I’ll continue to bang the drum. Escobar should be batting 3rd with the current 8 that we have in the lineup and Chipper should be batting 4th. The only reason he’s not batting 4th is because he doesn’t want to and his manager is obliging him with that request.
If Chipper is still the same hitter that you all say he is, shouldn’t HE be protecting the younger hitters, they way Bobby had veterans protect him in the lineup when he was the young up and coming player?
Jeffrey D, did you watch the games from July on? Sure. Chipper’s numbers overall for the year, skewed the fact that in the 2nd half he was TERRIBLE at the plate compared to any other 3-hole hitter on a team that fancied themselves as a playoff contender.
His bat being plugged into the 3-hole in the 2nd half of the year, is just as responsible for the offensive troubles as anybody.
In 77 games in the “first half”, Chipper had 37 K’s. In 66 games after the break he had 52. Here are the 1st half/2nd half splits:
BA: .290/.236, OBP: .411/.361, SLG: .467/.389, OPS: .878/.750
I know that RBI aren’t a great indicator of a hitters ability. Usually it is a suggestion that the guys ahead of him aren’t producing.
But in the first half with KJ leading off in April and May, Chipper had 41 RBI in 77 games. After the break with McLouth leading off and Prado hitting 2nd, he had a whopping 30 RBI in 66 games.
Like it or not. Believe that he’ll turn it around or not. There isn’t two ways about it. Chipper batting 3rd (and Bobby insisting that he stays there), hurt this team down the stretch. Blame other guys all you want. But you’d be wrong.
Will he turn it around? I hope so. If he doesn’t…… Go Braves in 2011.
October 23rd, 200911:50 am
Maybe, Soph, but I think these guys are too well coached for that. I’m more concerned about losing Williams.
October 23rd, 200911:51 am
” It’s odd, stats normally win arguments here, but if it relates to being “clutch” then the board just ignores stats.” ugaaccountant
I’ll ask you as well. What were Chipper’s “clutch” (RISP) stats in the 2nd half? Anf for those claming it was a batting order protection issue… then why didn’t Bobby put LaRoche in the cleanup spot? Clearly, he was on fire for the 2nd half of the year.
October 23rd, 200911:53 am
If Wren’s plan is to “Get Better”, then why is our biggest problem still with us – Bobby Cox??? This is something that we could have done something about at no expense. Looking at his incompetence – in so many different ways, this is really a mystery. The only possible explanation would seem to be that he had a guarantee of being able to stay as long as he wanted.
October 23rd, 200911:57 am
I don’t know, I think clutch stats can be misleading when you’re watching a game live. Bases are loaded with 2 outs, and Chipper strikes out. HUGE disappointment, everyone’s angry, upset, etc. Chipper’s suddenly the biggest loser in the world. But even the best hitters are going to fail about 7 out of 10 times.
Chipper batting 3rd (and Bobby insisting that he stays there), hurt this team down the stretch
Oh I completely agree with that. But I find it hard to believe that Chipper went from great hitter to terrible hitter because of his age and body in the middle of the season. He’s a smart hitter who just started thinking way too much. I think he’ll be fine.
October 23rd, 200911:58 am
Bat – oh yeah, losing Williams for the year is not good. Our corners were already weak so it should be interesting.
Have you noticed that Jerious Norwood gets hurt a lot? I really like him but it seems like he’s questionable, doubtful, or out every week.
The only possible explanation would seem to be that he had a guarantee of being able to stay as long as he wanted .
The FO has said many times, over the past few years, Cox could manage the Braves as long as he wanted to, it’s not a secret.
October 23rd, 200911:59 am
It amazes me how many people write out proposed lineups in any order. I mean, what is that? Unless your name is Bobby Cox or you are a sports writer, just stop it. For the love of humanity. Stop it.RHR
October 23rd, 200912:01 pm
When will the blogs obsession with Kelly FREAKIN Johnson end? I really don’t get it… he had a few really good months in ‘08, then he was just the regular ole Johnson that’s a streaky .250/.260 hitter. That’s all, nothing more, nothing less.
Chipper has already said he prefers hitting 3rd, so that’s your number 3 hitter. Leave it be & write up some new material because Bobby is a player’s manager, especially for a HOF vet like CJ.
October 23rd, 200912:02 pm
Yeah Soph, I have. I was talking about that very thing, last week, with my cousin and boom, Norwood gets hurt. It’s a shame really, the guy works hard and brings a lot to the table.
October 23rd, 200912:04 pm
Maybe you didn’t like McLouth leading off is why you dissed on my “proposed lineup”? It was, wasn’t it RHR?
October 23rd, 200912:06 pm
Hey has Random’s van been seen in the neighborhood lately?
The Braves are in the process of assessing whether there will be a trade market for pitchers Kenshin Kawakami or Derek Lowe, and if there is, this will increase the chances of Tim Hudson’s re-signing with the Braves. The talks between Atlanta and Hudson should accelerate over the next week, and within that time frame, either there will be a deal in place or Hudson will move on.
October 23rd, 200912:07 pm
Out of 2009 3B (qualified only), Chipper was:
1st in walk rate (17.1%)
1st in BB/K ratio (1.13 – the only one to walk more than K)
2nd in swinging at balls (15.4%)
3rd at swinging at strikes (72.7%)
5th in OB% (.388)
9th in K rate (18.2%)
10th in line drive % (20% – tied with A-Rod)
12th in OPS (.818)
18th in BABIP (.291 – .26 lower than career average)
No reason to think he won’t rebound. I don’t understand why, on this board, the benefit of the doubt is given to Ordonez, Dye, DeRosa, Delgado, Blalock, Glaus, Andruw, Nady, etc., and not Chipper. One of the best hitters in the history of baseball has two bad months and he needs to be dropped in the lineup, traded, benched or cut. His OPS was above .900 in three of six months, but that doesn’t matter?
Magglio had two months above a .900 OPS, one under .600 and three more under .800. Sure, let’s throw $18MM (and a starter) in for him!! As long as he bats before Chipper…
October 23rd, 200912:09 pm
No Brian, you misunderstand, I don’t read the proposed lineups. My eyes glaze over when I see that familiar list of 8 names in various order and I scroll on by. Its like a Lentz post, without the quotation marks and insults.
Here’s an odd stat. It’s actually a very normal stat. It’s the splits of RBI for Chipper in our wins and in our losses. Now, common sense will tell you that your best hitter produces less in the losses than in the wins. But these are rather alarming to me.
In the 74 games Chipper played in when the Braves won, here are his numbers:
.320/.452/.553/1.005 with 14 HR and 54 RBI.
In the 70 losses that he participated in?
.204/.313/.298/.611 with 4 HR and 17 RBI.
His slugging was LESS than his OBP. And to only have 17 RBI in those games? Yikes. Now, like I said. It’s not that you don’t expect a guy to produce less in a loss. But to produce that LITTLE for 70 different games?
I thought I’d look at Pujols’ numbers, since I think he’s the best hitter in the game. In the Cards’ wins (90) that he played in, here are his numbers:
.382/.502/.849/1.351 with 40 HR and 104 RBI.
In the 70 losses he played in:
.259/.362/.418/.781 with 7 HR and 29 RBI.
So even his numbers aren’t that great in the the losses. But he had 65 hits in the 70 losses (Chipper had 48 in the 70 – who thinks 17 more hits in the losses doesn’t win a game or two or three?).
So, Pujols (and most 3-hole hitters) perform poorly in losses, Chipper was extremely poor, especially in the 2nd half. Add to that, Pujols was unbelievable in the 90 wins. While Chipper was simply really good.
Money? Chipper made 13 million in 09 and will also in 2010. Pujols made and will make 16 million in each year.
For only 3 million dollars difference, I expect a helluva lot more for a that, and especially if the manager is going to let him dictate where he hits in the lineup.
Keep in mind, this rant has WAAAAAYY more to do with Bobby keeping him there, than Chipper’s actual production. Players get older and decline. Chipper certainly has my respect and adoration as a fan.
But regardless of what Scoots says. In 2009 (and possibly moving forward), Chipper wasn’t the best option on the team to bat 3rd, and it showed up in the W-L column.
October 23rd, 200912:14 pm
TnBrian, It would seem to me that Kelly Johnson has worked hard to make it. He got hurt and moved to second base,and worked his ass off to become serviceable, defensively. It seems he tried to be a leadoff hitter, though not a good fit for him. Hell, a guy should work hard if he wants to be a big leaguer , still I understand why many pull for him. Maybe he makes, maybe not, such is life.
October 23rd, 200912:20 pm
“Oh I completely agree with that. But I find it hard to believe that Chipper went from great hitter to terrible hitter because of his age and body in the middle of the season. He’s a smart hitter who just started thinking way too much. I think he’ll be fine.” Jeffrey D
I think you’ll be right. I think he focusses this off-season, and rebounds. Still not sure that he’ll be the best option at his age for the 3-hole. I think his bat control and slowly declining power numbers makes him an ideal 2-hole hitter, but only if bigger bats are added to plug the middle of the order.
Again, not a knock on Chipper. It’s just the toughest thing for a manager/HC/GM to do is assess when to move forward with a younger guy taking over for a declining star.
I often wonder, had Gant and Chipper played on the same team, would Chipper have still been inserted into the 3-hole, the spot Gant held before his injury?
October 23rd, 200912:29 pm
Daslied, good points in your 12:07. I’ve been pining for Esco to take over the 3-hole. He only had two months over .900 OPS as well. The end result is about the same (Chipper had an .818 OPS and Escobar’s was .812).
Chipper’s last 3 months were .907, .747 and .645 (that’s the one that alarms me – needed him most and he disappeared – though the team picked him up). Escobar’s were 1.063, .788 and .741.
I guess the question is, is now the time to switch? Is Escobar on the rise? Is Chipper on the decline?
I don’t have a problem with Chipper starting the year in the 3-hole. My problem will be if Bobby is unwilling to move him if it’s hurting the team. Hope that clears it up.
October 23rd, 200912:34 pm
N8 dont you think the whole team had worse numbers in losses than in wins? i mean…thats probably why they lost, right?
October 23rd, 200912:38 pm
keylargo………..Dude, I have always known that the Braves can, in theory, negotiate a contract with Kelly Johnson without offering him salary arbitration. However, just because the Braves have the “theoritical” right to negotiate that way……….does not mean that it is a realistic option.
As David O’Brien said…..it is VERY RARE for a player to accept a contract at below his previous season’s salary during his arbitration years. The arbitration game stacked in favor of the player. Even if he has an “off year”, a salary arbitrator will factor in previous years when determining the next year’s salary.
So, knowing that, why would Kelly Johnson give up his right to salary arbitration and accept a contract at 80% of his 2009 salary……..when he can easily get awarded $3.5 or possibly $4 mil in arbitration?
I’m not the one going around without knowledge here. I’m very aware of how the arbitration process has worked over the years.
October 23rd, 200912:45 pm
jeffrey d… I think Chipper did fatigue as the season progressed. He hadn’t played regularly in – what? – 5 years. I don’t know, maybe I’m wrong, but he did look listless at times.
October 23rd, 200912:48 pm
Steve from OH…………..I’m not saying that we should automatically take away a player’s good at-bats when factoring in how good he really is.
I’m saying that other than Kelly’s first couple of days back from the DL (when he went 5 for 6)…….he went 13 for 63 (.206) the rest of the season.
So in other words………Kelly batted .214 in 224 at-bats BEFORE going on the DL……went 5 for 6 in the couple of days after his return from the DL…….and then hit .206 after that.
It isnt like I’m taking a whole month of stats away from Kelly’s 2009 season in order to make him “look bad”. I took away 6 FREAKING AT-BATS, out of 303……..to show how bad Kelly’s 2009 season really was.
However, because of the “man crush” that you have on Kelly Johnson, I’m sure that the 5 for 6 stretch that Kelly had upon his return from the DL gave you many orgasms. Those 6 at-bats gave you plenty excuse to overlook the 297 other SUCK A$$ at-bats that Kelly had this season.
I’m not the one going around without knowledge here.
And this, ladies and gentlemen, is one of the reasons that I still occasionally read a Dentz post, LOL. I mean, come on, is that line not priceless? Singularly obtuse, yes, but, priceless still, LOL.
October 23rd, 200912:57 pm
Well he is right 99% of the time. I’m surprised he didn’t throw a decimal in there too.
October 23rd, 200912:58 pm
Jeff R……….again, it is common that readers from the South are afflicted with A.D.D. and “selective reading” (in other words, poor comprehension skills).
I NEVER SAID that the Braves shouldnt trade Derek Lowe. I said that the Braves should not trade him in order to just dump his salary.
Many on here are clamoring for the Braves to eat part of his contract and dump him in stupid trade scenarios like the one for Magglio Ordonez of the Detroit Tigers. If the Braves were to trade Lowe, they CERTAINLY could not only get decent value for him (many teams need starting pitching who never get hurt and can pitch 200 innings every season, even if he is a little overpriced at $15 mil a season)…………but also certainly not have to eat any of his salary.
Again, just because Derek Lowe is a little overpriced at $15 mil a season DOES NOT mean that there arent teams willing to take on his salary. If Lowe was prone to injuries, then sure, he would be hard to trade. However, given his track record of having a rubber arm, overpaying for someone IS NOT the same as not getting value from someone.
My point all along is that the Braves are dealing from a position of STRENGTH with their starting pitching surplus. I feel that if the Braves dont get a fair trade offer for Derek Lowe (or any of the other starting pitching that they would like to dangle in order to improve the offense)………then the Braves would be smart to keep all 6 starting pitchers.
Starting pitchers get hurting all the time in Spring Training. When that happens, the Braves could be in a position to make a trade that is more favorable to them.
Also, if one of the Braves starting pitchers gets hurt, then we’ll have someone who can step right in.
October 23rd, 200912:59 pm
Kelly’s first couple of days back from the DL (when he went 5 for 6)…….he went 13 for 63 (.206) the rest of the season.
Could that possible be a function of playing regularly and not. 5 for six after coming back from Gwenette where he played regularly then 13 for 63 while playing sparingly and pintch hitting. There are many factors involved in how someone plays over a short time period.
October 23rd, 20091:03 pm
DAP, of course they did. But even in years past, Chipper’s numbers (mainly batting average and slugging), weren’t THAT bad in losses.
My point is that he’s possibly starting to decline. For him to only have 17 RBI in the 70 losses he played in, while batting .202 is alarming, don’t you think?
Here is his BA in the losses for the previous few years:
2008 – .286, 2007 – .288, 2006 – .290
Maybe it’s just a bad year. Maybe it’s no protection. Maybe it’s coincidence.
My point is, is we/he had less protection in the lineup and he is still as good as everybody thinks or says he is (which may be the case), then why not use HIM to protect the younger guys? Why go a whole year wasting his AB’s and allowing people to protect him that aren’t capable of it? Why not bat McLouth in the 3-hole and protect him with Chipper? Why not bat Escobar in the 3-hole and protect him with Chipper?
Or as I’ve asked, why not protect Chipper in the 2nd half with one of the hottest hitters in baseball in LaRoche?
I’m not a guy that insists that the cleanup hitter has to be a 40 or 50 HR guy. A cleanup hitter can be a doubles machine too, which Chipper can still be. But he clearly isn’t as fast as he used to be, so wouldn’t putting a faster guy that gets on base that is also capable of knocking in runs (McLouth or Escobar), more logical?
I think it speaks volumes about what Cox and Wren think of Escobar as a player. He’s in his 3rd year and can’t move up in the lineup, yet Chipper was inserted into the 3-hole from the get go. Is Escobar the same talent now as Chipper was in 95? Probably not. But damn, they are about the same player right now. So rather than have a young guy that isn’t a bopper protect your alleged best hitter, just have that best hitter be the protection and leader of the lineup. It seems too simple to me.
Regardless of where Chipper hits, the lineup in general needs and injection of new blood. Whether that is Heyward or a trade or a free agent. So making the lineup deeper will go a long ways towards eliminating extended scoring droughts. If this team were to add a Derek Lee, or a Jason Bay, Chipper would probably be just fine in the 3-hole.
But if said big bopper is not added, I believe that the current group of 8 regulars is best served to score runs and produce consistently with Chipper batting cleanup or 5th, protecting the top half of the lineup.
October 23rd, 20091:05 pm
Fleming………Kelly didnt play “regularly” in his 5 for 6 “streak”. He had a pinch hit, then went 3 for 4 in a blowout against Milwaukee, then had another pinch hit.
He then started the next 2 games and went 0 for 7 with an error. Then he had a 4 for 30 month of August. So in other words, he went 4 for 37 right after going 5 for 6.
Way too inconsistent to be depended on.
October 23rd, 20091:10 pm
It’s not neccesarily the over all numbers in the losses that alarms me for chipper. It’s the ammount of games in which he literally did nothing that is alarming. He was literally a non-factor in 40 games or so.
When was the last time, if ever, you could say that? In the 70 losses, he was intentionally walked only 5 times, and overall in those games, he took only 38 total walks. Which tells me that teams weren’t pitching around him that much. If that was the case, the IBB would have been higher. But it also tells how much he was pressing and trying to do too much. At some point he has to trust the guys behind him, take his walks and let them have the opportunity to produce.
Maybe I’m panicking over nothing. Maybe he simply was pressing too much. But something has to give somewhere in the lineup. Common sense says that Wren will do plenty this winter to give Chipper more help.
If not, we’re in trouble with Cox writing out the lineup card for one more year.
October 23rd, 20091:13 pm
Lentz has got a point. After weeks of not blogging, he came back and he’s as consistent as ever…
October 23rd, 20091:16 pm
Kelly was coming off playing “regularly” ( see I can do quotes too) and pinch hitting then starting then pinch hitting again is playing “regularly”. That’s 3 games in 3 days. Starting 7 games in a whole month is not playing “regularly”
October 23rd, 20091:18 pm
It’s like old times again. I feel like it’s July all over again.
October 23rd, 20091:30 pm
Suppose the Braves sign Laroche to a 3-year, or even a 4-year contract. As long as there’s no a “no trade” clause and the yearly amount is reasonable, the Braves would be able to trade Laroche if (A) Freeman is actually ready (and not just Schaefer-ready) and (B) Laroche stays healthy. The one thing Laroche has been for the past few years is consistent. He’s 31 now. With proper conditioning, he’ll be just as good – at least – for the next 3 – 5 years. And, who knows, if he ever learned to hit in the first half of the year, Freeman might be the trade bait – or a temporary left fielder in ‘12 and ‘13. It’s not that complicated. There’s no guarantee Freeman will be ready by ‘11, or for that matter, ever. Laroche is a 25-30 HR; .285 hitter – and will be for the next five years at least.
Phil in GA
October 23rd, 20091:34 pm
Good to see your name on here again, too. I don’t post on here too often, but enjoy reading yours from abroad. I’ll actually be going to Cambodia for a couple weeks in November. Most of my time will be spent about 1 1/2 hrs away from Phnom Penh, in Oudong (it’s a work trip).
Think I’m going to go up to Siem Reap and Angkor afterwards – but figured I’d ask you if you have any recommendations for places to go when I have a few extra days of free time. Have you been to any beach spots on the coast?
Thanks for any info you want to pass along. How long have you been there? You’ve lived in several places in SE Asia, right?
Hope everyone else is doing well. Pulling for an Angels comeback just for the thrill of the Yanks losing in 7, but have to admit I think a Yankees-Phillies World Series – much as I hate ‘em both – would be some really high-level Fall Classic baseball. They’re both just so strong right now.
By the way, here’s hoping new offense includes a power-hitting OF AND LaRoche back at first. I’m excited about Heyward, too, but I’m not too worried about when he arrives. He’ll play his way into a big-league job whenever he’s ready. I’d love to have an outfield, maybe by the beginning of 2011, that looks either like:
LF: New bopper (Jason Bay? A man can dream, right?)
CF: McClouth/Schafer (whoever’s best)
CF: Schafer (rejuvenated)
Both scenarios, ideally, with Matt Diaz as the fourth OF’er. Man, can’t believe how we can all so easily cast a .300 hitter with decent power, energetic guy, into a reserve role – but that’s what I’m doing here, too. But I think he just knows and fills that role so well.
Anyways, just figured I’d add some thoughts. DOB, couple of dumb questions for you:
-I know he’s another guy on the wrong side of the hill, but how ridiculous an idea do you think it would be for Braves to pursue Vlad? He’s a FA this offseason, right? He’s always been one of my favorites and I loved that guy when he was younger with the Expos – just a complete player. Wonder if he’s got enough juice left for a couple more seasons – rotate with Diaz or upcoming Heyward maybe? Anyway that could be viewed as an option – if we sign LaRoche, too, of course?
-And another question just because I like the guy: In your opinion, does Brandon Jones have a shot at playing ball again with the big-league Braves at any point? Really thought he was a well-rounded young player when I’ve seen him in spring training/brief time with ATL in ‘08. Know he had some injury issues and a less-than-stellar ‘09 campaign. And I know the Braves probably aren’t looking at bringing up an OF’er without much pop – not with the lineup as it is now. But… is he still on their major-league radar at all? Or think he can get there again?
Have a good one…
October 23rd, 20091:42 pm
Paul, I just realized that you are Dwight from “The Office”.
Now, is ADD/”selective reading” really just a problem in the South? I don’t know if go away I’d say that leave. It seems to me that, based on for the love of god shut up the research I’ve read, ADD is a problem shut piehole everywhere. It’s really sad, personally, because when I was driving me insane in school in the 80s, people who did poorly in school were just go ruin a Cowboys blog “dumb”. I also remember subtle social experiments to see how people performed christ I’m going to chop my head off if you keep talking in a natural setting. Whoa, sorry for the rambling move to Greenland post!
What do you think, Paul?
October 23rd, 20091:49 pm
Lentz, here is your statement that clearly shows you did not understand the Arbitration process. You said “just because the Braves can offer him 80% of his 09 salary does not mean the arbitrator will side with the Braves”. The arbitrator has nothing to do with salary negotiations before both sides agree to arbitration! The Braves can offer anything more than 80% of last years salary (it could be 95% or 105%). If these negotiations do not result in a contract then the Braves can offer arbitration or non tender him.
What you said is that the Braves can offer Johnson 80% of his 09 salary and Johnson could ask for $4 mil and let the arbitrator decide. THAT IS NOT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN
Here is your exact quote:
The Braves would be fools to offer Kelly Johnson arbitration. Just because the Braves can offer him 80% of his $2.85 mil 2009 salary for 2010………..does not mean that an arbitrator will side with the Braves. Paul Lentz
Here is another statement you made, basically saying KJ had good years in 07 and 08 and he would be a candidate for up to $4 mil in arbitration.
Many of you forget that a salary arbitrator often takes into account past seasons when deciding whether to side with the player or team’s salary request.
I can easily see Kelly Johnson asking for $3.5 mil or even $4 mil in salary arbitration. That is one risk that the Braves would be foolish to take. Paul Lentz
October 23rd, 20091:54 pm
Paul’s problem is he has reading comprehension skill problem. Maybe it’s because he is from San Fran and everyone there has that problem. You can see it in all his posts. Whenever someone needs to write a book to express one simple idea, it’s because they couldn’t understand what they are writing if it was clear and concise.
October 23rd, 20091:58 pm
go away….. leave….. for the love of god shut up …….. shut pie hole ………… driving me insane…. just go ruin a cowboys blog ……. christ I’m going to chop my head off if you keep talking…… move to Greenland……..
Just thought I would save Paul some time.
October 23rd, 20092:04 pm
Whenever someone needs to write a book to express one simple idea
Yes, but “idea” connotes “creation of original thought”. Don’t think that really applies to Dentz, LOL. Somehow, the concept of “critical thinking” and his moniker in the same context…well, I’m having a little trouble with that visual.
However, it’s probably a good thing that he’s again gracing us with his acumen and verve. Nothing perks up a bad day better than thinking, “There, but for the Grace of God, go I.”.
October 23rd, 20092:05 pm
Excellent 1:42 post—made this southerner smile
Having six solid pitchers going into Spring training is ok with me. One of the contending teams will be snake bit by injury and will be forced to over pay for a starter in a trade. It happens every year, count on someone going down…if not move KK to the pen and win as many 2-1 and 3-2 ball games as we can
October 23rd, 20092:08 pm
Not supposed to use the words Dentz and God in the same post either. Both might be offended.
October 23rd, 20092:16 pm
Nothing perks up a bad day better than thinking, “There, but for the Grace of God, go I.”.
Snicker snicker snicker…You havin’ a bad day, ncpoots?
D.Lowe For Who?
October 23rd, 20092:17 pm
Might it just be possible to trade an overpaid, yet know quantity pitcher for an overpaid yet known quantity power bat?
October 23rd, 20092:33 pm
Nietzsche : It is my ambition to say in ten sentences what others say in a whole book .
October 23rd, 20092:37 pm
Are you saying scoots is full of it, McFann?
October 23rd, 20092:39 pm
Bat, go crazy, my man. I’m wondering about the last Nietzsche reference we had on the blog, and, you know, I can’t quite put my finger on it, LOL.
A little Dentzian nihilism might go a long way, I’m thinking.
October 23rd, 20092:40 pm
keylargo…………I made previous postings in the last blog detailing the possibility of the Braves trying to negotiate a 2010 contract with Kelly before deciding whether to offer him salary arbitration or non-tendering him. I am WELL AWARE that the Braves can negotiate and sign Kelly to a 2010 contract without doing the arbitration thing.
However, regardless of whether the Braves negotiate with him or do the arbitration thing……the fact remains that the absolute minimum that the Braves can sign Kelly for in 2010 is 80% of his 2009 contract. I feel that the absolute minimum is a waste of payroll dollars for the Braves. That money can be better allocated to addressing other needs (like a decent middle reliever).
My contention all along has been that: 1. The Braves would be FOOLISH to pay a back-up 2nd baseman $2.3 mil. 2. As David O’Brien said yesterday, it is VERY RARE for an arbitration eligible player to take less money than the previous season. 3. If Kelly Johnson visions himself as an everyday player, he would be better off by not taking a pay cut and hope that the Braves will either be foolish enough to offer him arbitration (where he will be in line to get a decent raise to $3.5 or even $4 mil for the 2010 season……or hope that they release him so he can have a chance to compete for a starting job with another team.
If Kelly were to sign with another team (probably for around $1 mil) and win a starting job in Spring Training for his new team……….he would have a chance to recoup any lost money the following season if he has the kind of 2010 season that some of you on here think he can have. If he has a standout year in 2010 for another team, he’ll still be eligible for arbitration and in line to get a substantial raise.
Yet if Kelly accepts a 2010 contract from the Braves at 80% of his 2009 salary, then he will not get the kind of playing time that would warrant a significant raise for 2011. Even if Martin Prado gets hurts or turns into a bust…….the Braves still have Omar Infante who can come in and play second.
So again, I’ve shown that you are pretty selective when it comes to your interpretation on what I say. You conveniently point out selected posts I make, without taking into account previous postings that laid the groundwork for subsequent postings.
The Artist Formery Known as Too Hot For Teacher
agree with beekay here…..I like carrying all six starters into Spring Training. One of two things is BOUND to happen –
1) One of our guys gets hurt – with a sixth starter (Hudson) we don’t lose a beat and have to deal with penciling in a Chuck James, JoJo type. Insurance cash pics up injured player’s salary.
2) Somebody else loses a starter during the spring or fails to get a big pitcher and in a desparate move to appease fans will overpay us in a trade – giving us good returns for less cash.
The Braves were REALLY fortunate last year – how many people started games last year? 7? KK, JJ, Lowe, Vasquez, Hanson, Medlin, Hudson? And when you consider that we didn’t HAVE to pitch Medlin or Hudson – we just wanted to – that’s pretty rare folks. I’d bet our starters don’t fare that well on the injury front next season
October 23rd, 20092:41 pm
“ncpoots” was a scathing comeback from Dentz one night, Bat. I’ve never recovered.
October 23rd, 20092:42 pm
Thanks for proving my point, Paul! Have a good day.
beekay…………your 2:05pm posting tailgates what I said in my 12:58pm posting about holding on to all 6 starting pitchers and possibly making a good deal in Spring Training when other team’s starting pitchers injure themselves.
October 23rd, 20092:44 pm
Ah, I see, very clever. Well you hang in there, scoots. lol
October 23rd, 20092:48 pm
Your 2:40 to keylargo could have been said – keylargo you’re wrong and I’m right. Us ADD southerners maybe would have been able to understand that.
October 23rd, 20092:50 pm
Most would agree that Pete Rose, Eddie Murray, and Mickey Mantle are the greatest switchhitters of all time. Rose is often forgotten here, because he didn’t have many home runs. Therefore, Chipper can be compared to Mantle and Murray. Mantle was before my time but I understand he was maybe the fastest player in the game early in his career. Murray, however, is the only switchhitter in the 500 HR/3000 hit club. For several years now I have had those goals in mind for Chipper and really pulling for him, and sad seeing that production slow down where he would now need 4 more years, fairly healthy years, to accomplish this. That would be 150 hits/19 homers for four more years.
DOB, do you have any idea how important those individual goals are for
Chipper? He’s already a sure fire Hall of Famer, but the 500/3000 would put him in pretty rare air.
October 23rd, 20092:51 pm
And on cue Paul shows up with another diatribe.
Paul:I feel that the absolute minimum is a waste of payroll dollars for the Braves.
You feel that, and you denigrate southerners.
October 23rd, 20092:57 pm
DOB – enjoyed all the info and I am really glad you mentioned Wise a good guy and an ex-Brave. Very classy.
October 23rd, 20093:05 pm
The Artist Formery Known as Too Hot For Teacher……………….your 2:40pm posting was dead on. The Braves are dealing from a position of strength. There is no need to rush into trading a quality starting pitcher like Derek Lowe UNLESS we get value in return.
If the Braves cant re-sign Adam LaRoche to a 1 year contract (highly unlikely because I feel that LaRoche will be able to get a decent 3 or 4 year offer from another team)……then the Braves would be smart to pursue a trade for Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez is a better player than LaRoche and has a Nate McLouth type similar contract that is very team friendly.
Any trade to get Gonzalez would automatically include Freddie Freeman. If the Braves were to propose a trade centered around Kris Medlen and Freddie Freeman (along with whatever Frank Wren feels would make it a fair trade for the Braves)…………I can see the Padres possibly going for it. The Padres are looking to cut payroll even more. Freddie Freeman and Kris Medlen would be cheap alternatives….to go along with addressing the need for a replacement at 1st and a young arm that can be immediately inserted into their starting rotation.
Not only would the Braves get an upgrade at 1st that would actually be cheaper and younger than LaRoche……the Braves would still have a surplus of starting pitching to dangle in a trade to possibly acquire a right handed power hitter to play left field……..or they could go the free agency route.
I’m not saying that the Braves will be successful in acquiring Adrian Gonzalez or that the Padres would be even be interested in trading him. I’m saying that the Braves have young, cheap players to dangle in a possible trade that could attract the interest of the Padres. It would not hurt the Braves to explore this.
October 23rd, 20093:13 pm
“If Kelly were to sign with another team (probably for around $1 mil) and win a starting job in Spring Training for his new team……….he would have a chance to recoup any lost money the following season if he has the kind of 2010 season that some of you on here think he can have. If he has a standout year in 2010 for another team, he’ll still be eligible for arbitration and in line to get a substantial raise.”
I almost see what you are saying here, but how many people are going to turn down say $3 million in 2009 for $1 million in 2009? Who does that except people who are already set for life? Why would KJ take only 1 million when he knows that a) baseball careers can be over in the blink of an eye and b) that arbitration numbers and sort of even free agent offers are based off what you made last season. It’s tough to argue you are worth $7 million in 2011 if you chose to sign for $1 million in 2010.
Think of how badly we needed pitching prior to getting JV, KK, and DLowe, now are there any teams out there that need the same overhaul that we needed? Those are the teams to start negotiating with. If a pitcher goes down in spring training from either the Yanks, Red Sox, Angels or Cubs we could get lucky. Those teams have too much money invested to have a hole in their rotation, especially if it is someone that is a 1,2, or 3 starter.
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