driver8: no doubt Fox is pulling for that would-be ratings bonanza of a World Series….
I saw the new Coen Brothers movie this afternoon, A Serious Man, and loved it. Another totally original, engrossing and perfectly executed film from the the masters. One of their more serious-minded movies, but of course has plenty of laugh-out-loud moments, too. I just dug how they they developed each character, particularly in the protagonist’s family.
Great movie, really is. I’d give it an A or A-. Not quite as good as No Country For Old Men among their recent films, but so different that it’s hard to even compare.
Jim, McFann – oh its fine. Nothing to a root canal, I’ve had one before and its not any worse than getting your teeth cleaned, I don’t know why people are so afraid of them. I guess it just sounds awful, the worst part is having one whole side of your face paralyzed for 4 or 5 hours afterward lol.
McCarver just wets his little panties when he sees Jeter “go the other way”. Joe Buck is alright to me, but old McCarver is just plain annoying & awful at announcing. He and Morgan are the worst, no competition there.
How nice would it have been if we got Morales for Tex instead of Kotch? Guess the Angels knew what they were doing in that deal because Morales wasn’t all that until this year, but they saw something in him.
Can anyone tell me why they decided to play the dodgers/phillies game in LA at 12:30 and the yankees/angels game at night in New York- where it is in the 40’s and there is a good chance of bad weather? (It is currently 85 degrees in Los Angeles) And before anyone says it, yes I know it is about ratings…
Train Wreck Bystander: No team is going to use a spot on its 25-man roster to carry an extra starter to pitch every six days (or pitch less with off days on the schedule). Doesn’t make sense. That spot’s better utilized for a bench player or reliever.
DOB, Not sure if it was mentioned previously, but according to my research on Baseball-Reference.com, in 2009 Javier Vazquez tied the all-time major league season record for pitchers with 20 sacrifice hits. He joined Roy Oswalt-Houston 2006, Steve Rogers-Montreal 1983 and the interestly named Urban Shocker-New York Yankees 1926 & 1927. What a cool record to have claimed if he could have laid down one more.
Vazquez did, of course, break the Braves pitcher franchice SH record of 18 held by John Smoltz, 2006 and Phil Niekro, 1968. His 20 Sacrifice Hits were tied the Atlanta Braves record set by Rod Gilbreath(2B), 1976 and matched by (current 1st base coach) Glenn Hubbard(2B), 1982.
The next highest SH total for a Brave in a season is 31 by Johnny Logan(SS), 1956 when the Braves were in Milwaukee. You have to go all the way back to the beginning of the modern era of baseball in 1923 when the Boston Braves Stuffy McInnis(1B)had 37 and 1921 when Bill Southworth(OF) had 35.
The modern major league record is held by former Pirate Jay Bell(SS)in 1990 with 39.
RHRits not any worse than getting your teeth cleaned
Really? Well, I despise getting my teeth cleaned, so…
I don’t know why people are so afraid of them. I guess it just sounds awful
Yeah…Really, anything that involves teeth (anything besides chewing, that is) creeps me out. But I survived braces…and they weren’t really so bad. Hard to believe it’s been nearly 3 1/2 years since I got ‘em off…
the worst part is having one whole side of your face paralyzed for 4 or 5 hours afterward
RHR, 8:20 pm … “Nothing to a root canal, … I don’t know why people are so afraid of them.”
I think it’s the “killing the nerve” part that makes the rc so difficult. Lucky for me, I got to go through that part without anaesthesia. The root canal part was a breeze.
Thanks rammerjammer. I try to stay out of the speculating who might come our way, since it’s either just that. Pure speculation, or it’s already a rumor that started somewhere. Which is still just speculation usually.
I just don’t think anybody is going to “take” Lowe off our hands. Even if somebody were to do it in a pure salary dump type of trade, they’d want more coming their way for helping us out from under that deal.
It just makes a little sense. But you’re right. Probably more sense for the Braves, meaning Houston would want more. Not sure I’d give them more.
I have full confidence that Wren will get creative with his trade proposals to other teams in the coming months. I just thought I’d join the speculating group. Which is really funny to begin with, since we don’t even know which pitchers Wren plans on keeping. Which, I’m sure, is where he’ll start at.
My guess is that at the meetings the Braves are having, that’s exactly what they are discussing, and will move from there.
Some stats stuff from Dave Cameron over at fangraphs:
“Last weekend, David Appelman posted the year-to-year correlations for UZR and wOBA by chances and plate appearances. The latter had a R^2 value of 0.30 for players with at least 500 plate appearances in both 2008 and 2009. Without a baseline as to how other offensive statistics fare, this seems like a pretty weak correlation. I similarly took all 101 batters with 500+ plate appearances in both seasons and ran the correlations on their batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage to figure out where wOBA’s R^2 ranks. Here are the results:
Interestingly, OBP and SLG were nearly identical while BA shows just how volatile it is on a year-to-year basis. wOBA ranks just behind the two slash stats that make up OPS, so why do we use wOBA if it’s presumably less predictive on an individual basis than either of those components? Because it correlates to runs scored better than OPS. I ran the team production numbers versus runs scored and found these relationships (both R):
OPS: .958
wOBA: .960
This is why we use wOBA. It might not have the year-to-year relationship that OBP and SLG do, but it correlates with team runs scored about as well or better than anything else around. Now these numbers are not adjusted for park or league and are in their raw forms.
(For fun I used the equation given to estimate each team’s run totals in 2009. The unluckiest teams: Mets, Yankees, Astros, Mariners, and Nationals; the luckiest: Athletics, Angels, Giants, Dodgers, and Twins. Deeper analysis may or may not reveal something about those teams.)”
when thinking about a RH bat the Braves have 2 places for that bat 1B and LF. That is it. Ryan Braun would be our ideal trade but the Brewers would not trade him even straight up for Jurrjens or for Jurrjens and Diaz. It would also be extrememly hard for the Braves to trade away Jurrjens.
When thinking of a RH bat for LF, the bat has to be a significant improvement over Diaz assuming Heyward gets the RF job sometime next year. At 1B, it either has to be a 1-2 year rental or it has to be such a good, young right handed 1B that we would consider moving Freeman in a separate deal. Either way, the pool of potential targets has to be small and most of what we would want is either unavailable or will cost the Braves too much.
It is going to be much easier said than done to acquire an impact righty power bat to fit into our lineup next year and into the future.
Hey Rob – toothache. This is the 2nd time out of 3 it made me sick. I have a weak stomach for meds anyway but 7.5 mgs is weak for even me. Hope you get to feeling better soon.
Jeff R (October 16th, 2009 1:10 pm): “Your 11:08 am post didn’t address my full comment. I wrote:
“ ‘Kawakami… This “Let’s not offend the Japanese” by trading Kawakami makes no sense. . . . blah blah blah.’
“Context matters.”
It ain’t a matter of context.
The sentence I quoted — your initial sentence == was the summary of your argument. The 9 or 10 lines following were your overwhelmingly convincing demonstration of how it didn’t make sense to you.
You completely ignore the context of the Braves’ pursuit, courtship and cost of their success in wooing him from rival teams like (specifically) the Red Sox (to whom the Braves had just lost — I think — Junichi Tazawa). Wren busted his a$$ to convince not only Kawakami, but also all his advisors, his family, the Japanese consulate in Atlanta, etc, that the Braves really, really valued Kawakami and wanted him in Atlanta and would take care of him while he was here.
Your off-target analogies and irrelevant f’rinstances only demonstrate how thoroughly you have no idea what you’re talking about.
brian (October 16th, 2009 9:30 pm): “when thinking about a RH bat the Braves have 2 places for that bat 1B and LF.”
What about RF? Aren’t the defensive skills required for LF and RF essentially equivalent? You just put the better (stronger/more accurate) arm in RF for those occasional throws to 3B.
(Or are you already treating the corner OF positions interchangeably? I mighta missed that.)
Johnson looks like he has a pretty pronounced bat wrap to me. Maybe a reason for all the k’s? I wonder if it’s easily correctible…nolie, a little help on that one?
Yeah, looks like a long swing. Which I guess is part of the bat wrap. I mean, I know there are major league hitters with a pronounced one, but the good ones usually have some serious strength and bat speed to make up for it. I don’t know. nolie will have to provide his expertise on this one.
Random – I am giving RF to Heyward. If not to start the year then sometime around June 1st. I don’t see the Braves trading for a big right field bat with Heyward basically ready pending his Arizona fall league stent.
It’s not that I don’t like the guy; it’s that I don’t trust him to have two excellent years in a row. So, on this one, we’ll have to differ, I guess. (Scoots)
He’s only had one year where he was much under average, and his ERA+ was 92 that year in Yankeeland.
Nolan Ryan was a fairly decent pitcher but he averaged one more win per year than he did lose. Guess he never lived up to all that talent he had either. I’m not comparing his stuff to Ryan but some of the circumstances of their careers are similar.
Most pitchers are up and down, he’s one of what? – 10-12 guys in history to win 10+ games and have 150+ Ks 10 years in a row. I fail to see all the failing that y’all are always claiming he has done.
His last 10 ERA+ have been 119,130,108,139,92,100,98,127,98 and 145. Not a lot of failure there IMO. He’s played for poor low scoring teams, poor defensive teams and teams in very good offensive parks. His game log shows a lot of low scoring loses.
Will he do as well next season as last season? Probably not, but the odds are strong that he will be an average to above average pitcher who will throw a lot of innings and a pretty fair number of quality starts. He should have had a better W/L record this year as he should have had several other times.What more can y’all ask for that he can control?
if the Braves go Diaz in LF, McLouth in CF and Heyward in RF with Church as the 4th OF along with Infante as a backup that would leave 1B for a right handed bat. I don’t know if Schafer’s value has recovered enough from his surgery and subpar start to be included in a package with a pitcher for a 1B but it is possible. I assume that Freeman may also be included in a package if the Braves can obtain a young, power 1B under contract for years though I would prefer to see Freeman come up with the Braves and stay a Brave.
I just don’t see many other options that are significant improvements.
Someone mentioned Mike Cameron. He could play CF with McLouth in LF and Heyward in RF. Diaz could platoon in RF and be a 4th OF or Diaz could move to 1B, but with Diaz just having his break out season would the Braves want to burden Diaz with learning 1B to be an everyday 1B?
I just don’t see many obvious targets for the Braves. Cruz is an obvious target if he doesn’t cost the Braves too much in prospects. I don’t see him moved for Kawakami, Diaz, and Schafer for example. Holliday and Bay are too expensive. Braun would be ideal and someone to build around (can you imagine building an OF with Braun and Heyward???) but Milwaukee would want more than Jurrjens who the Braves want to build around.
Even though Frank Wren does not have the overhaul in store this offseason he will earn his salary. I think his job is harder this year than last. We need to add one significant right handed bat, get the bullpen squared away, and settle on 5 starters, but these decisions will determine if we are playing well into October 2010.
what the deuce are weejuns anyway? I can’t be part of a crowd that is defined by something that I am unfamiliar with.
If that is some kinda code for preppy then you got me all wrong. If it’s code for mensa level + IQs you are much closer If it’s code for movie star good looks and charisma you nailed it right on the nose.
I was just steeling myself to admit — and I’ve been trying to work up to it for over a month — to admit that I could not finish even one single chapter of BP’s “Baseball Between the Numbers”, and then you hit me with THIS?!?!?
good for McCann. If they could not have found the original flap from the original Lasik the redo would basically cause a significant corneal abrasion while being a much more involved procedure. Anyone who has had a corneal abrasion knows how exquisitely painful those are.
I’m impressed you’ve at least attempted to read that book. I’ll admit I didn’t finish it either. It got rather silly towards the end if you ask me. Though I highly recommend finishing one particular chapter of that book. The chapter entitled “Is David Ortiz really Mr. Clutch?”. It’s a must-read.
Nothing to a root canal, I’ve had one before and its not any worse than getting your teeth cleaned, I don’t know why people are so afraid of them. (RHR)
I had one by a dentist who did it in two stages,part the first day part a week later. It was a huge root and he only took half of it the first session. I was in incredible pain-vicadin every 5 hours for the entire week. Needless to say when I have one since then I make damn sure it’s all in one day. Perhaps others have experienced such torture too,.
Keep in mind that he’s talking about Minor’s brief outing, and not his overall status–but it meshes with what I’ve seen previously. Let’s wait and see what the final report looks like…
I really didn’t expect Law to say anthing much better about Minor. We’re just going to have to wait and see on him. I’m not sure I can take one more Jeremy Sowers comparison though…..
And he had some really good things to say about Jenrry Mejia, Met pitching prospect and Domonic Brown, Philly outfielder prospect. Mets don’t have nearly as bad a system as some think. I like Mejia and Ike Davis a lot. And the Phillies, well, they could probably still trade for Roy Halladay if they wanted to. Brown, Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor still to come for them…..really scary.
brian (October 16th, 2009 10:56 pm): “I am giving RF to Heyward. If not to start the year then sometime around June 1st. I don’t see the Braves trading for a big right field bat with Heyward basically ready pending his Arizona fall league st[i]nt.”
Oh, okay. (”Duh” to me.)
But just curious — does Heyward have a better arm than any other corner OF the Braves might pick up?
That is, can’t the Braves pick up a corner OF with a big RH bat without pigeonholing him into LF vs RF? Just get the best RH hitting corner OF you can, and let the chips fall where they may as far as who’s in right, etc?
P. W. Hjort (October 16th, 2009 11:14 pm): “I’m impressed you’ve at least attempted to read that book.”
Hey, now — don’t sell me short here. I’m a platinum BP subscriber (or whatever they call it), and sometimes even venture to comment there. They’ve got megatons of good stuff online.
“I highly recommend finishing one particular chapter of that book. The chapter entitled “Is David Ortiz really Mr. Clutch?”. It’s a must-read.’
Well, that’s one of the chapters to which I gave my very best shot, but . . . .
Of all the possible names worn out already from the rumor mongers, I will throw a new one at ya….Adam Lind would be perfect for left field, if he could be pryed loose from Toronto, thus allowing Wren and co. to re-sign Roachy, and perhaps trade for a new closer.
of course Random – corner OF are often interchangeable if the arm is good enough. Heyward will be a great RF – defensively and at the plate.
As much as I love Freddie Freeman it is too bad we could not have had Heyward in the 1st round and Mike Stanton in the 2nd. Both great athletes. Heyward the prototypical #3 hitter – great swing, great average, good (but not superior) power. Stanton an incredible athlete who could play any OF position with incredible power though a few more holes in the swing. Both men well beyond their years in baseball maturity and overall maturity.
good point about extending Vazquez random. It will be interesting to see if FW tries to extend vazquez another 2-3 years. If it looks like no chance for a reasonable extension he may look to sell high on Vazquez and then lock up Hudson for 3 years.
Does anyone know the minor leaguers that could be added to the 40 man roster?
Do you mean from within the organization? As in to protect from the rule-5 draft?
Random -
Hey, now — don’t sell me short here.
Never.
Well, that’s one of the chapters to which I gave my very best shot, but . . .
They do use a rather complex theoretical method to come to their conclusions. In fact, if I hadn’t taken a statistics course I’d have absolutely idea what they’re talking about (and frankly, I’m still not sure I understand all of the theory). But, at the least, disregard the math and focus on their conclusions. It’s great stuff!
That is, can’t the Braves pick up a corner OF with a big RH bat without pigeonholing him into LF vs RF? Just get the best RH hitting corner OF you can, and let the chips fall where they may as far as who’s in right, etc?
That’d make the most sense. The Braves aren’t really in a position to limit their search, I wouldn’t think.
Oh, lord. I’ll try to sift through the list of minor-leaguers and see which ones will be rule-5 eligible this year. I’m going to watch this Jim Carrey stand-up thing first, though. Some of the best physical humor of all time. Truly hilarious.
PS: “Mike Stanton” = LHP (89-07) Mike Stanton’s kid? Or RHP (75-85) Mike Stanton’s kid? Or no relation?
Was that addressed to me? If you’re talking about the prospect Mike Stanton’s potential relation to the two former major leaguers named Mike Stanton, I don’t think he is. The prospect is black and the two former major leaguers are white.
This is an incomplete list, but just a few players to think about that I’ve dug up from cruising the Gwinnett and Mississippi rosters. They’re all rule-5 eligible in December if they’re not on the Braves’ 40-man:
Francisley Bueno
Brian Barton (was rule-5′d by the Cardinals from the Indians in 2007. He’ll be eligible again in December.)
Matt Young (was eligible last year, but drastically increased his value in 2009)
2,530 comments Add your comment
RHR
October 16th, 2009
7:55 pm
Oh well of course…that’s a given.
RHR
October 16th, 2009
7:56 pm
McFann – Angels and Yankees..Duh..I don”t know why I thought they weren’t playing. My days are mixed up. I blame the root canal.
Vinings Jim
October 16th, 2009
8:00 pm
RHR – is your mouth doing okay?
McFann =Ô=
October 16th, 2009
8:07 pm
RHR Why was it odd that you got lenses for your glasses today?
‘Cause BMac had Lasik: Round II…sorry. I do stupid comparison “games” like that sometimes…
My days are mixed up. I blame the root canal.
Ew…root canals give me the creeps. Sorry you had to have one–hope you’re doin’ OK!
Soph–
Yeah, he’s back on alert…it was the BMac news what caused this.
keylargo
October 16th, 2009
8:09 pm
I started watching Deliverance on TV tonight and dang if there wasn’t Jordon
Schafer! He sure can play the Banjo!
David O'Brien
October 16th, 2009
8:16 pm
driver8: no doubt Fox is pulling for that would-be ratings bonanza of a World Series….
I saw the new Coen Brothers movie this afternoon, A Serious Man, and loved it. Another totally original, engrossing and perfectly executed film from the the masters. One of their more serious-minded movies, but of course has plenty of laugh-out-loud moments, too. I just dug how they they developed each character, particularly in the protagonist’s family.
Great movie, really is. I’d give it an A or A-. Not quite as good as No Country For Old Men among their recent films, but so different that it’s hard to even compare.
RHR
October 16th, 2009
8:20 pm
Jim, McFann – oh its fine. Nothing to a root canal, I’ve had one before and its not any worse than getting your teeth cleaned, I don’t know why people are so afraid of them. I guess it just sounds awful, the worst part is having one whole side of your face paralyzed for 4 or 5 hours afterward lol.
Train Wreck Bystander
October 16th, 2009
8:23 pm
Three word solution to the Hudson dilemna: six man rotation
northbeach Scott
October 16th, 2009
8:26 pm
now, now keylargo. That is not very nice to suggest that Jordan is an inbred hillbilly, although not far off the mark.
TnBrian
October 16th, 2009
8:27 pm
McCarver just wets his little panties when he sees Jeter “go the other way”. Joe Buck is alright to me, but old McCarver is just plain annoying & awful at announcing. He and Morgan are the worst, no competition there.
TnBrian
October 16th, 2009
8:31 pm
How nice would it have been if we got Morales for Tex instead of Kotch? Guess the Angels knew what they were doing in that deal because Morales wasn’t all that until this year, but they saw something in him.
cabravesfan
October 16th, 2009
8:32 pm
Can anyone tell me why they decided to play the dodgers/phillies game in LA at 12:30 and the yankees/angels game at night in New York- where it is in the 40’s and there is a good chance of bad weather? (It is currently 85 degrees in Los Angeles) And before anyone says it, yes I know it is about ratings…
RHR
October 16th, 2009
8:34 pm
DOB – since you’re here, could you get rid of that trash at 8:23.
Hey cab
how ya been? Survived the rain, I see?
cabravesfan
October 16th, 2009
8:36 pm
RHR-
We got a whole 2 inches! It was tough
but all is good now, back to our usual beautiful fall weather (it is really, really hot today)
Vinings Jim
October 16th, 2009
8:37 pm
cabravesfan – one word – well, of course, darling…you’ve got it
David O'Brien
October 16th, 2009
8:38 pm
Train Wreck Bystander: No team is going to use a spot on its 25-man roster to carry an extra starter to pitch every six days (or pitch less with off days on the schedule). Doesn’t make sense. That spot’s better utilized for a bench player or reliever.
RHR
October 16th, 2009
8:43 pm
Ugh. Feeling sick again. I just can’t take pain meds. Dammit. ugh.
TnBrian
October 16th, 2009
8:56 pm
Oh my God, they had to show Kate Hudson. Worst actress on the planet especially when she tries do to do comedy.
Vinings Jim
October 16th, 2009
8:56 pm
cabravesfan – nothing to say, just putting out something new – is the weather as good as Chip said?
cabravesfan
October 16th, 2009
9:02 pm
VJ-
It is- a typical fall day out here on the West Coast
cabravesfan
October 16th, 2009
9:04 pm
TnBrian-
She can’t be worse the Denise Richards playing a nuclear physicist…
northbeach Scott
October 16th, 2009
9:07 pm
DOB, Not sure if it was mentioned previously, but according to my research on Baseball-Reference.com, in 2009 Javier Vazquez tied the all-time major league season record for pitchers with 20 sacrifice hits. He joined Roy Oswalt-Houston 2006, Steve Rogers-Montreal 1983 and the interestly named Urban Shocker-New York Yankees 1926 & 1927. What a cool record to have claimed if he could have laid down one more.
Vazquez did, of course, break the Braves pitcher franchice SH record of 18 held by John Smoltz, 2006 and Phil Niekro, 1968. His 20 Sacrifice Hits were tied the Atlanta Braves record set by Rod Gilbreath(2B), 1976 and matched by (current 1st base coach) Glenn Hubbard(2B), 1982.
The next highest SH total for a Brave in a season is 31 by Johnny Logan(SS), 1956 when the Braves were in Milwaukee. You have to go all the way back to the beginning of the modern era of baseball in 1923 when the Boston Braves Stuffy McInnis(1B)had 37 and 1921 when Bill Southworth(OF) had 35.
The modern major league record is held by former Pirate Jay Bell(SS)in 1990 with 39.
I know this is a bit arcane, but interesting.
Rob from SC
October 16th, 2009
9:08 pm
RHR
why are you taking pain meds? I got sick taking them too
McFann =Ô=
October 16th, 2009
9:08 pm
RHR its not any worse than getting your teeth cleaned
Really? Well, I despise getting my teeth cleaned, so…
I don’t know why people are so afraid of them. I guess it just sounds awful
Yeah…Really, anything that involves teeth (anything besides chewing, that is) creeps me out. But I survived braces…and they weren’t really so bad. Hard to believe it’s been nearly 3 1/2 years since I got ‘em off…
the worst part is having one whole side of your face paralyzed for 4 or 5 hours afterward
Ick! Yeah, that would be rather annoying.
Hope you start feelin’ better.
abwright
October 16th, 2009
9:10 pm
RHR, 8:20 pm … “Nothing to a root canal, … I don’t know why people are so afraid of them.”
I think it’s the “killing the nerve” part that makes the rc so difficult. Lucky for me, I got to go through that part without anaesthesia. The root canal part was a breeze.
Vinings Jim
October 16th, 2009
9:13 pm
Rob – doing any better, pain-wise?
N8
October 16th, 2009
9:15 pm
Thanks rammerjammer. I try to stay out of the speculating who might come our way, since it’s either just that. Pure speculation, or it’s already a rumor that started somewhere. Which is still just speculation usually.
I just don’t think anybody is going to “take” Lowe off our hands. Even if somebody were to do it in a pure salary dump type of trade, they’d want more coming their way for helping us out from under that deal.
It just makes a little sense. But you’re right. Probably more sense for the Braves, meaning Houston would want more. Not sure I’d give them more.
I have full confidence that Wren will get creative with his trade proposals to other teams in the coming months. I just thought I’d join the speculating group. Which is really funny to begin with, since we don’t even know which pitchers Wren plans on keeping. Which, I’m sure, is where he’ll start at.
My guess is that at the meetings the Braves are having, that’s exactly what they are discussing, and will move from there.
jeffrey d
October 16th, 2009
9:19 pm
Yeah a root canal’s nothing because you’re numb the whole time. The worst part for me was how long it took and being covered in drool.
Steve from OH
October 16th, 2009
9:22 pm
Some stats stuff from Dave Cameron over at fangraphs:
“Last weekend, David Appelman posted the year-to-year correlations for UZR and wOBA by chances and plate appearances. The latter had a R^2 value of 0.30 for players with at least 500 plate appearances in both 2008 and 2009. Without a baseline as to how other offensive statistics fare, this seems like a pretty weak correlation. I similarly took all 101 batters with 500+ plate appearances in both seasons and ran the correlations on their batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage to figure out where wOBA’s R^2 ranks. Here are the results:
Batting average: 0.1975 (0.444 R)
On-base percentage: 0.3673 (0.606 R)
Slugging percentage: 0.3653 (0.604 R)
Interestingly, OBP and SLG were nearly identical while BA shows just how volatile it is on a year-to-year basis. wOBA ranks just behind the two slash stats that make up OPS, so why do we use wOBA if it’s presumably less predictive on an individual basis than either of those components? Because it correlates to runs scored better than OPS. I ran the team production numbers versus runs scored and found these relationships (both R):
OPS: .958
wOBA: .960
This is why we use wOBA. It might not have the year-to-year relationship that OBP and SLG do, but it correlates with team runs scored about as well or better than anything else around. Now these numbers are not adjusted for park or league and are in their raw forms.
(For fun I used the equation given to estimate each team’s run totals in 2009. The unluckiest teams: Mets, Yankees, Astros, Mariners, and Nationals; the luckiest: Athletics, Angels, Giants, Dodgers, and Twins. Deeper analysis may or may not reveal something about those teams.)”
Roman Gal
October 16th, 2009
9:23 pm
He could pick it right back up this spring and I hope he does nolie
Oh, he will. He’s gotta make me look good…
northbeach Scott
October 16th, 2009
9:24 pm
Thank you for the consideration, DOB.
That was “all-time Braves franchise,” not “franchice” at 9:07.
jeffrey d
October 16th, 2009
9:27 pm
He’s gotta make me look good…
So what if Firstandthird face plants?
brian
October 16th, 2009
9:30 pm
when thinking about a RH bat the Braves have 2 places for that bat 1B and LF. That is it. Ryan Braun would be our ideal trade but the Brewers would not trade him even straight up for Jurrjens or for Jurrjens and Diaz. It would also be extrememly hard for the Braves to trade away Jurrjens.
When thinking of a RH bat for LF, the bat has to be a significant improvement over Diaz assuming Heyward gets the RF job sometime next year. At 1B, it either has to be a 1-2 year rental or it has to be such a good, young right handed 1B that we would consider moving Freeman in a separate deal. Either way, the pool of potential targets has to be small and most of what we would want is either unavailable or will cost the Braves too much.
It is going to be much easier said than done to acquire an impact righty power bat to fit into our lineup next year and into the future.
jeffrey d
October 16th, 2009
9:35 pm
Sorry, did my drool comment kill the conversation?
Roman Gal
October 16th, 2009
9:38 pm
I started watching Deliverance on TV tonight and dang if there wasn’t Jordon Schafer! He sure can play the Banjo!
keylargo- That’s impossible! He was filling in for Sondre Lerche tonight at a show. You must’ve just been seeing things…
P. W. Hjort
October 16th, 2009
9:39 pm
Steve from OH,
You got a link to that article? I can’t find it. I want to do one similar that includes EqA.
Steve from OH
October 16th, 2009
9:43 pm
Graceful play by Rivera. Excellent outfielding.
Graceful slide by A-Rod. Excellent baserunning.
Roman Gal
October 16th, 2009
9:43 pm
So what if Firstandthird face plants? jeffrey d
Freeman? He won’t face plant. He’s been taking hitting lessons from Riaan Spanjer-Furstenburg.
Steve from OH
October 16th, 2009
9:44 pm
PWH–it’s on fangraphs maybe 3(?) pages back, I think…
Steve from OH
October 16th, 2009
9:44 pm
BP did one like it for EqA under “Baseball Prospectus Basics” if you haven’t checked it out yet…
Logan
October 16th, 2009
9:45 pm
Strasburg two k’s in a perfect first.
keylargo
October 16th, 2009
9:50 pm
Roman Gal
How’s he play that guitar with mittens on?
P. W. Hjort
October 16th, 2009
9:51 pm
Cool. Saves me work!
RHR
October 16th, 2009
9:54 pm
Hey Rob – toothache. This is the 2nd time out of 3 it made me sick. I have a weak stomach for meds anyway but 7.5 mgs is weak for even me. Hope you get to feeling better soon.
P. W. Hjort
October 16th, 2009
9:54 pm
Well, the Baseball Prospectus one includes data from 1871 to 2003. The Fangraphs one is just 2009.
Roman Gal
October 16th, 2009
9:56 pm
How’s he play that guitar with mittens on?
You have to be quite special to be able to do that…Sondre and Schafer are.
P. W. Hjort
October 16th, 2009
9:57 pm
LOL: http://nybaseballdigest.com/?p=16071
Shamus Thacker
October 16th, 2009
10:02 pm
Song choice one of best yet!
Why hasn’t some canucklehead come-up with ice baseball? Hell, it’d beat yaahhkeeee…
Shamus Thacker
October 16th, 2009
10:05 pm
I’ve played guitar with gloves minus fingers. Summa them biker-party gigs wuz kinda cool in more ways than one…
Shamus Thacker
October 16th, 2009
10:11 pm
Well, since I done run everbody off, I’ll go.
Selah lol
keylargo
October 16th, 2009
10:19 pm
I just realized I was wasting my time watching the Playoffs when The Lingerie Football League was on too.
jeffrey d
October 16th, 2009
10:19 pm
Alright Shamus is gone….it’s party time
keylargo
October 16th, 2009
10:21 pm
Thank GOD those unis are only worn in the LFL.
Roman Gal
October 16th, 2009
10:26 pm
I’ve played guitar with gloves minus fingers. Summa them biker-party gigs wuz kinda cool in more ways than one… Shamus
You are a truly special man, Shamus.
McFann =Ô=
October 16th, 2009
10:28 pm
jeffrey d Sorry, did my drool comment kill the conversation?
Don’t you just hate being the last one to get in on a conversation? It’s like everyone enjoyed talking about the thing until you chimed in…
Random
October 16th, 2009
10:39 pm
Jeff R (October 16th, 2009 1:10 pm): “Your 11:08 am post didn’t address my full comment. I wrote:
“ ‘Kawakami… This “Let’s not offend the Japanese” by trading Kawakami makes no sense. . . . blah blah blah.’
“Context matters.”
It ain’t a matter of context.
The sentence I quoted — your initial sentence == was the summary of your argument. The 9 or 10 lines following were your overwhelmingly convincing demonstration of how it didn’t make sense to you.
You completely ignore the context of the Braves’ pursuit, courtship and cost of their success in wooing him from rival teams like (specifically) the Red Sox (to whom the Braves had just lost — I think — Junichi Tazawa). Wren busted his a$$ to convince not only Kawakami, but also all his advisors, his family, the Japanese consulate in Atlanta, etc, that the Braves really, really valued Kawakami and wanted him in Atlanta and would take care of him while he was here.
Your off-target analogies and irrelevant f’rinstances only demonstrate how thoroughly you have no idea what you’re talking about.
Why in the world should I repeat that $h!t?
McFann =Ô=
October 16th, 2009
10:44 pm
Nice K!
McFann =Ô=
October 16th, 2009
10:47 pm
Thanks for this piece, Chief!
Hope his recovery goes well!
jeffrey d
October 16th, 2009
10:50 pm
I’m gonna miss those glasses, though. They were pretty sweet.
jeffrey d
October 16th, 2009
10:51 pm
Oh the game’s on Fox that’s right…I was wondering why Family Guy was on.
I’ve heard less than a half-inning of McCarver and already I miss Chip.
Random
October 16th, 2009
10:52 pm
brian (October 16th, 2009 9:30 pm): “when thinking about a RH bat the Braves have 2 places for that bat 1B and LF.”
What about RF? Aren’t the defensive skills required for LF and RF essentially equivalent? You just put the better (stronger/more accurate) arm in RF for those occasional throws to 3B.
(Or are you already treating the corner OF positions interchangeably? I mighta missed that.)
McFann =Ô=
October 16th, 2009
10:55 pm
jeffrey d I’m gonna miss those glasses, though.
Gotta admit, I’m gonna, too, in a way…
Efrim
October 16th, 2009
10:55 pm
Johnson looks like he has a pretty pronounced bat wrap to me. Maybe a reason for all the k’s? I wonder if it’s easily correctible…nolie, a little help on that one?
Yeah, looks like a long swing. Which I guess is part of the bat wrap. I mean, I know there are major league hitters with a pronounced one, but the good ones usually have some serious strength and bat speed to make up for it. I don’t know. nolie will have to provide his expertise on this one.
brian
October 16th, 2009
10:56 pm
Random – I am giving RF to Heyward. If not to start the year then sometime around June 1st. I don’t see the Braves trading for a big right field bat with Heyward basically ready pending his Arizona fall league stent.
Steve from OH
October 16th, 2009
10:58 pm
brian–yeah, barring something catastrophic, Heyward is our RF of the future. Period. That future being next year, at some point.
Steve from OH
October 16th, 2009
11:01 pm
Efrim–yep.
David O'Brien
October 16th, 2009
11:03 pm
Frank Wren said today’s Lasik procedure went well for McCann.
nolie
October 16th, 2009
11:03 pm
It’s not that I don’t like the guy; it’s that I don’t trust him to have two excellent years in a row. So, on this one, we’ll have to differ, I guess. (Scoots)
He’s only had one year where he was much under average, and his ERA+ was 92 that year in Yankeeland.
Nolan Ryan was a fairly decent pitcher but he averaged one more win per year than he did lose. Guess he never lived up to all that talent he had either. I’m not comparing his stuff to Ryan but some of the circumstances of their careers are similar.
Most pitchers are up and down, he’s one of what? – 10-12 guys in history to win 10+ games and have 150+ Ks 10 years in a row. I fail to see all the failing that y’all are always claiming he has done.
His last 10 ERA+ have been 119,130,108,139,92,100,98,127,98 and 145. Not a lot of failure there IMO. He’s played for poor low scoring teams, poor defensive teams and teams in very good offensive parks. His game log shows a lot of low scoring loses.
Will he do as well next season as last season? Probably not, but the odds are strong that he will be an average to above average pitcher who will throw a lot of innings and a pretty fair number of quality starts. He should have had a better W/L record this year as he should have had several other times.What more can y’all ask for that he can control?
McFann Ô
October 16th, 2009
11:04 pm
Thanks, Chief!! Glad to hear it!
Load off my mind…
brian
October 16th, 2009
11:07 pm
if the Braves go Diaz in LF, McLouth in CF and Heyward in RF with Church as the 4th OF along with Infante as a backup that would leave 1B for a right handed bat. I don’t know if Schafer’s value has recovered enough from his surgery and subpar start to be included in a package with a pitcher for a 1B but it is possible. I assume that Freeman may also be included in a package if the Braves can obtain a young, power 1B under contract for years though I would prefer to see Freeman come up with the Braves and stay a Brave.
I just don’t see many other options that are significant improvements.
Someone mentioned Mike Cameron. He could play CF with McLouth in LF and Heyward in RF. Diaz could platoon in RF and be a 4th OF or Diaz could move to 1B, but with Diaz just having his break out season would the Braves want to burden Diaz with learning 1B to be an everyday 1B?
I just don’t see many obvious targets for the Braves. Cruz is an obvious target if he doesn’t cost the Braves too much in prospects. I don’t see him moved for Kawakami, Diaz, and Schafer for example. Holliday and Bay are too expensive. Braun would be ideal and someone to build around (can you imagine building an OF with Braun and Heyward???) but Milwaukee would want more than Jurrjens who the Braves want to build around.
Even though Frank Wren does not have the overhaul in store this offseason he will earn his salary. I think his job is harder this year than last. We need to add one significant right handed bat, get the bullpen squared away, and settle on 5 starters, but these decisions will determine if we are playing well into October 2010.
nolie
October 16th, 2009
11:08 pm
The Weejun Gang. Would save some keystrokes (RHR)
what the deuce are weejuns anyway? I can’t be part of a crowd that is defined by something that I am unfamiliar with.
If that is some kinda code for preppy then you got me all wrong. If it’s code for mensa level + IQs you are much closer If it’s code for movie star good looks and charisma you nailed it right on the nose.
Random
October 16th, 2009
11:08 pm
Steve from OH (October 16th, 2009 9:22 pm) –
O!
M!
G!
!!!
I was just steeling myself to admit — and I’ve been trying to work up to it for over a month — to admit that I could not finish even one single chapter of BP’s “Baseball Between the Numbers”, and then you hit me with THIS?!?!?
Arghhh!
McFann Ô
October 16th, 2009
11:09 pm
Well, much as I’d like to hang around here a little while longer, I gotta get a move on…
Tomorrow’s really Saturday, eh? Funny. How time does crawl…
Night, all! (No rhyme intended.)
brian
October 16th, 2009
11:10 pm
good for McCann. If they could not have found the original flap from the original Lasik the redo would basically cause a significant corneal abrasion while being a much more involved procedure. Anyone who has had a corneal abrasion knows how exquisitely painful those are.
I assume CHipper’s eyes have been checked
P. W. Hjort
October 16th, 2009
11:14 pm
Random,
I’m impressed you’ve at least attempted to read that book. I’ll admit I didn’t finish it either. It got rather silly towards the end if you ask me. Though I highly recommend finishing one particular chapter of that book. The chapter entitled “Is David Ortiz really Mr. Clutch?”. It’s a must-read.
Steve from OH
October 16th, 2009
11:14 pm
Random:
I’m…sorry…?
nolie
October 16th, 2009
11:15 pm
Nothing to a root canal, I’ve had one before and its not any worse than getting your teeth cleaned, I don’t know why people are so afraid of them. (RHR)
I had one by a dentist who did it in two stages,part the first day part a week later. It was a huge root and he only took half of it the first session. I was in incredible pain-vicadin every 5 hours for the entire week. Needless to say when I have one since then I make damn sure it’s all in one day. Perhaps others have experienced such torture too,.
Efrim
October 16th, 2009
11:16 pm
Keep in mind that he’s talking about Minor’s brief outing, and not his overall status–but it meshes with what I’ve seen previously. Let’s wait and see what the final report looks like…
I really didn’t expect Law to say anthing much better about Minor. We’re just going to have to wait and see on him. I’m not sure I can take one more Jeremy Sowers comparison though…..
And he had some really good things to say about Jenrry Mejia, Met pitching prospect and Domonic Brown, Philly outfielder prospect. Mets don’t have nearly as bad a system as some think. I like Mejia and Ike Davis a lot. And the Phillies, well, they could probably still trade for Roy Halladay if they wanted to. Brown, Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor still to come for them…..really scary.
nolie
October 16th, 2009
11:17 pm
She can’t be worse the Denise Richards playing a nuclear physicist… (CBF)
Amen to that
Random
October 16th, 2009
11:20 pm
brian (October 16th, 2009 10:56 pm): “I am giving RF to Heyward. If not to start the year then sometime around June 1st. I don’t see the Braves trading for a big right field bat with Heyward basically ready pending his Arizona fall league st[i]nt.”
Oh, okay. (”Duh” to me.)
But just curious — does Heyward have a better arm than any other corner OF the Braves might pick up?
That is, can’t the Braves pick up a corner OF with a big RH bat without pigeonholing him into LF vs RF? Just get the best RH hitting corner OF you can, and let the chips fall where they may as far as who’s in right, etc?
Random
October 16th, 2009
11:24 pm
Steve from OH (October 16th, 2009 11:14 pm): “I’m…sorry…?”
Well, you sure sell better be.
My inferiority complexes are self-propagating — they don’t need no help from you.
Steve from OH
October 16th, 2009
11:26 pm
My inferiority complexes are self-propagating
Join the club. We meet on Tuesdays–when we’re not feeling too timid to leave the house, that is.
Random
October 16th, 2009
11:31 pm
P. W. Hjort (October 16th, 2009 11:14 pm): “I’m impressed you’ve at least attempted to read that book.”
Hey, now — don’t sell me short here. I’m a platinum BP subscriber (or whatever they call it), and sometimes even venture to comment there. They’ve got megatons of good stuff online.
“I highly recommend finishing one particular chapter of that book. The chapter entitled “Is David Ortiz really Mr. Clutch?”. It’s a must-read.’
Well, that’s one of the chapters to which I gave my very best shot, but . . . .
Joebrave
October 16th, 2009
11:32 pm
Of all the possible names worn out already from the rumor mongers, I will throw a new one at ya….Adam Lind would be perfect for left field, if he could be pryed loose from Toronto, thus allowing Wren and co. to re-sign Roachy, and perhaps trade for a new closer.
Joebrave
October 16th, 2009
11:34 pm
Prolly require including the little big eared wannabe Schafer, but include him first.(picks on Roman Gal)
Nick
October 16th, 2009
11:34 pm
Does anyone know the minor leaguers that could be added to the 40 man roster?
Random
October 16th, 2009
11:40 pm
N8 (October 16th, 2009 9:15 pm): “we don’t even know which pitchers Wren plans on keeping.”
I don’t think Wren himself even knows, nor will he know until he first tries to extend Vazquez, and then tackles Hudson’s situation.
flange1
October 16th, 2009
11:52 pm
Random,
Perfect answer at 11:40.
As usual…
Roman Gal
October 16th, 2009
11:53 pm
Prolly require including the little big eared wannabe Schafer, but include him first.
I should’ve figured you’d show up sooner or later…
brian
October 16th, 2009
11:54 pm
of course Random – corner OF are often interchangeable if the arm is good enough. Heyward will be a great RF – defensively and at the plate.
As much as I love Freddie Freeman it is too bad we could not have had Heyward in the 1st round and Mike Stanton in the 2nd. Both great athletes. Heyward the prototypical #3 hitter – great swing, great average, good (but not superior) power. Stanton an incredible athlete who could play any OF position with incredible power though a few more holes in the swing. Both men well beyond their years in baseball maturity and overall maturity.
brian
October 16th, 2009
11:55 pm
good point about extending Vazquez random. It will be interesting to see if FW tries to extend vazquez another 2-3 years. If it looks like no chance for a reasonable extension he may look to sell high on Vazquez and then lock up Hudson for 3 years.
P. W. Hjort
October 16th, 2009
11:57 pm
Nick –
Does anyone know the minor leaguers that could be added to the 40 man roster?
Do you mean from within the organization? As in to protect from the rule-5 draft?
Random -
Hey, now — don’t sell me short here.
Never.
Well, that’s one of the chapters to which I gave my very best shot, but . . .
They do use a rather complex theoretical method to come to their conclusions. In fact, if I hadn’t taken a statistics course I’d have absolutely idea what they’re talking about (and frankly, I’m still not sure I understand all of the theory). But, at the least, disregard the math and focus on their conclusions. It’s great stuff!
That is, can’t the Braves pick up a corner OF with a big RH bat without pigeonholing him into LF vs RF? Just get the best RH hitting corner OF you can, and let the chips fall where they may as far as who’s in right, etc?
That’d make the most sense. The Braves aren’t really in a position to limit their search, I wouldn’t think.
Nick
October 17th, 2009
12:14 am
P.W. Hjort—-YES!!!thanks
Soph
October 17th, 2009
12:32 am
DOB -
Did you catch the Kansas Midnight Madness scrimmage just a few mins ago?
UNC’s on now.
Random
October 17th, 2009
12:32 am
flange1 (October 16th, 2009 11:52 pm) –
brian (October 16th, 2009 11:55 pm) –
Thanks — my thinking exactly.
P. W. Hjort (October 16th, 2009 11:57 pm) –
I do plan to give it another shot — say, in the depths of winter, after I’ve shot all the TVs.
PS: “Mike Stanton” = LHP (89-07) Mike Stanton’s kid? Or RHP (75-85) Mike Stanton’s kid? Or no relation?
P. W. Hjort
October 17th, 2009
12:34 am
Nick -
Oh, lord. I’ll try to sift through the list of minor-leaguers and see which ones will be rule-5 eligible this year. I’m going to watch this Jim Carrey stand-up thing first, though. Some of the best physical humor of all time. Truly hilarious.
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
P. W. Hjort
October 17th, 2009
12:43 am
Random -
PS: “Mike Stanton” = LHP (89-07) Mike Stanton’s kid? Or RHP (75-85) Mike Stanton’s kid? Or no relation?
Was that addressed to me? If you’re talking about the prospect Mike Stanton’s potential relation to the two former major leaguers named Mike Stanton, I don’t think he is. The prospect is black and the two former major leaguers are white.
Nick
October 17th, 2009
12:51 am
Hjort–Thanks!!
P. W. Hjort
October 17th, 2009
1:11 am
Nick -
This is an incomplete list, but just a few players to think about that I’ve dug up from cruising the Gwinnett and Mississippi rosters. They’re all rule-5 eligible in December if they’re not on the Braves’ 40-man:
Francisley Bueno
Brian Barton (was rule-5′d by the Cardinals from the Indians in 2007. He’ll be eligible again in December.)
Matt Young (was eligible last year, but drastically increased his value in 2009)
Jonny Venters
Jeff Lyman (no doubt he’ll be protected)
Lee Hyde (will also be protected)
Nick
October 17th, 2009
1:16 am
thanks