Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
3,403 comments Add your comment
Thrillhouse44
October 8th, 2009
9:13 am
Anders, agree on your 8:55, or as some would say “co-sign”. Jeter wasn’t picked as the Most Overrated player by his peers last year for nothing. He’s great, but he doesn’t walk on water as some would have you believe.
Wayne in Utah
October 8th, 2009
9:57 am
RHR
My guess is that KJ will be non-tendered, and around June, we will be sorry he is gone.
DAP
October 8th, 2009
9:58 am
steve from OH I don’t know if it’s true or not, but I felt like there were a lot more good research opportunities there if you’re into that kind of thing.
you could be as fresh out of college as me, i dont know, but the way technology works now, smaller schools have virtually the same access to research that larger universities have. i wen to a small school in toccoa, GA, and i had access to millions of journals and research papers through galileo (an online research engine that the state as put together) and my library could get anything the UGA library had.
Jeff R
October 8th, 2009
10:01 am
Last night’s discussion on signing Johnson to trade him…
Nada. Too risky. Retain him? I think Cox was blowing smoke to make an attempt to boost Johnson’s trade value, such as it is. Some team might be willing to take him if the price is low. Non-tendered, they’d have to compete for his services. But if management can’t get something for him, I think they’ll cut him.
DAP
October 8th, 2009
10:03 am
ccrider, i wouldnt mind taking a chance on glaus, but im not sure what kind of message that would send. glaus has not played 1st much in his career. he has mostly played 3rd, so….i dont know…i guess im just thinking chipper might not appreciate the braves signing a 3rd baseman. and im not concerned with derosa. i dont think he is the player the braves need to be thinking about.
McFann Ô
October 8th, 2009
10:16 am
Greg in TN–
Hey! Long time, no see!
Thanks…I’ve still got some time, too;
AndyC
October 8th, 2009
10:24 am
DOB reporting that the Braves might not resign Roachy because they don’t want to block Freeman at first makes me very nervous. Let’s say they follow this strategy, that means that they will not sign Roachy or any other substantial first basemen. That also means that they will probably be reluctant to make a big trade for a player that they would have to give up too many prospects for or makes too much money. That leaves us in STOP GAP mode waiting for Freeman. They trade for some mediocre player or move Prado to first and let KJ play second. Then, let’s say that Freeman never develops into a big time player, the Braves have completely screwed themselves and we stay on the first basemen merry-go-round for another few years. Am I wrong here?
DAP
October 8th, 2009
10:30 am
i took a look at the top 50 homerun hitters for this past season, and took note of the guys the braves might be able to get. obviously, thats just based on my opinion. you might think ive listed a guy we cant get, or not listed a guy we can get. we’ll start small
luke scott, 25 homers this season only lefty on my…played mostly DH this season, but can play yhe corner OF spots and 1st base.
carlos lee 26 homers…this one might be a stretch. it would have to be a major salary swap…maybe involving lowe?
jermaine dye 27 homers….he dropped off this season but still hit 27, is a corner outfielder and is righthanded. he will more than likely be a free agent, so there is a pretty good possibility of this one happening.
paul konerko 28 homers, not sure if chicago is trading him, but he would be a pretty good addition fro the braves.
dan uggla 31 homers…but where would he play? and would the marlins deal with us? would we deal with them?
russell branyan 31 homers this guy is a masher, Ks alot, but thats not an issue. his .520 slg% is really good. can he repeat or was this a one year thing?
michael cudyer 32 homers talked to a big time twins fan yesterday that says he doesnt think the twins can trade cuddyer. big time fan-favorite. i would do kenshin+kelly for cuddyer…would they?
nelson cruz 33 homers…no idea if texas would trade this guy, but he is definitely the kind of hitter the braves need if he can stay on the field.
what do ya’ll think?
DAP
October 8th, 2009
10:32 am
no, andyC you are not wrong. the braves should go about their business this season as if freeman doesnt exist. they have a chance to win the WS next year, and they dont need to spoil that because they are waiting on a 19 year old to develop.
O'Brien
October 8th, 2009
10:34 am
On ESPN, Buster Olney was talking about Joe Torre. He said Joe manages one way in the regular season (leaving his veterans alone, and giving guys plenty of time to work things out). But he said, in the playoffs, Joe makes a lot more strategic moves, and does not wait around too long.
If that’s true, I couldnt help but think about our own Bobby Cox. He manages the same way in the regular season like he does in the playoffs. Way too patient with guys in the playoffs, giving them chance after chance. In my opinion, that is one reason why the Braves have not won a playoff series since 2001.
Wayne in Utah
October 8th, 2009
10:42 am
DAP
You’ve probably analyzed a lot of what I am going to state but here goes:
Scott: Lefty with poor D
Lee: Huge contract, a statute in LF.
Dye: Had a poor last half, and D has dropped considerably.
Uggla: Where could he play? He is 5′11″ so first might be out of the question. Could he play left? If we think KJ is bad at second, we would love to rip Uggla at second.
Branyan: One year wonder.
Cuddyer: Would LOVE this guy, but is probably untouchable in the Twin Cities.
Cruz: Dropped off later in the year. Hits in a small ball park. Would be my second choice on your list.
Konerko: He would be my top choice on your list. Good bat. OK glove. Is a bit older than LaRoche, so he might not block Freeman. What would it take to get him?? Would they take a prospect?
If we could deal for a guy like Konerko, then we could go with a platoon in left (Diaz and Church or KJ?)
I am assuming Heyward starts in right field. If he doesn’t show BIG in Arizona, then we might have to pick up someone like Marlon Byrd.
cvbraves
October 8th, 2009
10:47 am
So, which player on the Braves’ opening day roster played the most games this year? Chipper, 143. LaRoache played in 144 for the Pirates, BoSox and Braves.
DAP
October 8th, 2009
10:54 am
wayne i like konerko too, the only thing i think about is, is he any better than the guy we have? i dont think he is. laroche OPSed .843, konerko .842. plus, konerko has negative defensive value, if you believe those things, while laroche is a very good defensively. konerko is also signed for just one more year for $12mil. considering we would have to give up players, pay $12mil and only have him a year, i think laroche is a better deal. younger, better defense, same offensively over a full season. the only plus on konerko is that he is right handed, which i honestly dont care that much about. (im not one who believes that braves have a lefty/righty problem) im not worried at all about blocking a 19 year old, so that doesnt come into it for me.
DAP
October 8th, 2009
10:56 am
wayne, id also say that if i were more confident that brayan wasnt a one year wonder, as you called him, i would prefer him. the braves need that .524 slg%.
RHR
October 8th, 2009
10:59 am
My guess is that KJ will be non-tendered, and around June, we will be sorry he is gone.
Why? Unless Prado gets hurt we haven’t lost anything at 2B.
DAP
October 8th, 2009
11:02 am
wayne, i think bringing back laroche and getting dye is a pretty good option. dye is older, but he isnt ancient, and i think he has some value left. im not sure who we’d be bidding against, but it seems like dye could be had for a pretty small amount if he hits the free agent market.
DAP
October 8th, 2009
11:04 am
of course wayne, a better option would be mike cameron, who at this point in their careers, seems like he is basically jermaine dye with good defense.
Random
October 8th, 2009
11:09 am
Quisp (October 8th, 2009 1:33 am): “So you would take Chipper over Jeter?”
YES.
Jeter Career: .317/.388/.459/.847 (~$182M)
Jones Career: .307/.406/.541/.947 (~$131M)
The only reason NOT to take Jones over Jeter at this point is that Jeter is 2.2 years younger.
“There was a day when Chipper was the man but now he is just an old broken down version of that player.”
Well, let’s just look at the last 5 years:
Jeter 2005: .309/.389/.450/.839 ($19.6M)
Jones 2005: .296/.412/.556/.968 ($16.0M)
Jeter 2006: .343/.417/.483/.900 ($20.6M)
Jones 2006: .324/.409/.596/1.005 ($13.67M)
Jeter 2007: .322/.388/.452/.840 ($21.6M)
Jones 2007: .337/.425/.604/1.029 ($12.33M)
Jeter 2008: .300/.363/.408/.771 ($21.6M)
Jones 2008: .364/.470/.574/1.044 ($15.0M)
Jeter 2009 (thru Jul): .321/.397/.454/.851
Jones 2009 (thru Jul): .287/.407/.481/.888
Jeter 2009: .334/.406/.465/.871 ($20.0M)
Jones 2009: .264/.388/.430/.818 ($10.0M)
So for this full season (2009), Jeter had an OBP 18 points higher than Jones, and a SLG 30 points higher.
Whereas in the 4 years previous (2005-2008), Jones’ OBP averaged 40 points higher than Jeter’s, and his SLG averaged 130 points higher than Jeter’s.
And until the last two months of this season, Jones’ OBP & SLG were higher than Jeter’s by 10 and 27 points, respectively.
Imo, it’s just too soon to say that Jones will no longer be anything more than “an old broken down version of” himself, after only two months worth of data at the tail end of a long and arduous season in which he played more games than he had in six years, and in which he had little protection behind him in the line-up.
Jmo. We’ll see how they compare next year.
McFann Ô
October 8th, 2009
11:09 am
Boy, they’re sure making a big thing about Molina catching Burnett, aren’t they? Sheesh…
Estrada didn’t get all bent outta shape when Smoltz wanted BMac for his catcher.
RHR
October 8th, 2009
11:12 am
can anybody one-up me with ecstatic?
Count me in as ecstatic that we didn’t sign Fookie. He’s declined a lot since leaving the braves. Glad that turned out like it did.
Agree with Anders and Thrillhouse on Jeter.
AndyC – you are not wrong. We only have the pitching staff we have in place now for a limited time, what 2-3 years if that? This is not the time to be stingy about getting a 1B and an outfielder.
Danga
October 8th, 2009
11:13 am
Woot! Mike Cameron.
P. W. Hjort
October 8th, 2009
11:21 am
Baseball America came out with their list of top 20 Southern League Prospects. Heyward is 1 and Freeman is 8, but just look at how loaded the Southern league was this season.
1. Jason Heyward
2. Gordon Beckham
3. Desmond Jennings
4. Mike Stanton
5. Jarrod Parker
6. Tyler Flowers
7. Logan Morrison
8. Freddie Freeman
9. Jeremy Hellickson
10. Josh Bell
11. Jay Jackson
12. Todd Frazier
13. Jonathan Lucroy
14. Chris Heisey
15. Dan Hudson
16. Jordan Danks
17. Sean West
18. Andrew Lambo
19. Daniel Schlerth
20. Travis Wood
GermanBravesFan
October 8th, 2009
11:32 am
Ah… it must be the off-season. Robert has crawled out from underneath his rock to bash Bobby Cox again. Robert: get a life!
DAP
October 8th, 2009
11:40 am
david ross got about 150 plate appearances this season. in an effort to increase that by almost 100 plate appearances, i have an idea. carry three catchers. bring up sammons and let ross be the back up catcher, playing on mccann’s days off, but also let him have greg norton’s old job as the #1 pinch hitter. all im saying is lets let sammons rot on the bench instead of david ross, who is actually pretty valuable offensively.
Mid Town Joe
October 8th, 2009
11:42 am
Sad news:
http://www.ajc.com/sports/uga/former-uga-pitcher-dies-157487.html
O'Brien
October 8th, 2009
11:44 am
P. W. Hjort
With Tyler Flowers at #6, I’m sure people will keep an eye on him to see how he develops.
If thats the same list that DOB posted earlier, one thing that stood out to me was how many of them are in the Royals organization.
monty
October 8th, 2009
11:47 am
“Kelly will be an asset to us next year.”
Based on what? What he did 2 years ago? If that’s the case I can see why BC will think the same thing with Norton! You can’t even platoon Kelly because he hits LH better than RH, although thats what Cox tried to do some this year and it didn’t work.
David O'Brien
October 8th, 2009
11:48 am
Bad Scooter: I agree on Ron Darling (sounds weird just saying, I agree on Darling). I’ve heard his work on Mets telecasts (trips to the pressbox bathroom, where game’s always on speakers), and it ain’t bad. I think when he’s doing those games he’s way more comfortable and insightful. On the bigger national stage, with two teams he doesn’t cover normally, he just sounded like an amateur.
DJ
October 8th, 2009
11:50 am
Rob from SC: I agree with you on Mat Gamel from the Brewers. A young guy (Medlin) and maybe Kensin with some salary help. We have a glaring hole in the future for third base. Could play 1st for a while and move back to 3rd in a few years when Chipper leaves.
David O'Brien
October 8th, 2009
11:50 am
That’s not same list I posted earlier. I posted the Carolina League top 20. They’re doing one league every day or two. Heyward was the No. 1 prospect in two leagues (and if he’d been in Gwinnett a month or more, he might have been the top prospect in three leagues.)
BravesGrrrl
October 8th, 2009
12:00 pm
Braves could trade pitcher for power bat
“… the fact the Braves finished the year with more proven starting pitchers (six) than a rotation can accommodate, makes it less than surprising that some time this winter, they might trade one of those pitchers for a slugger.
But if it’s Javier Vazquez, who has one year at $11.5 million remaining on his contract, general manager Frank Wren had best prepare to be second-guessed by more than fans.”
Lalalalalalalalalalala . . . I can’t hear you. I’m not listening. I refuse to even consider they might trade Javy.
Daslied
October 8th, 2009
12:00 pm
Monty – I agree with some other about Kelly being valuable. He’s had 3 full seasons, and two of them were good. (His first partial season, 2005, wasn’t terrible, wasn’t good.) I’ll say for the millionth time that I think he’s played his last game in Atlanta, but I’d like to see him stay. It’ll be tough, though – Martin’s a very good player, and the easiest place to put him is at 2nd.
Rock On......
October 8th, 2009
12:01 pm
Just curious….when is Hudson’s contract up? I mean does it go through say October or was it up after the last out. My thinking is the Braves should have already declined Hudson’s 12 mil option or at least do so this week. They could then discuss extending his current contract, if that is indeed in place, during next week’s meetings. Assuming they will decline his option (which seems a given) if he is not under contract how can they extend it? As I see it Hudson is basically a FA right now. Any insight?
Daslied
October 8th, 2009
12:02 pm
Rock On, I think there’s a small window after the WS, as far as Hudson’s option?
David O'Brien
October 8th, 2009
12:06 pm
Rock On: Braves have a couple days (I think it’s three, actually) after World Series ends to exercise Hudson’s contract, or not. So no, he’s not a free agent. And since both sides have made it known they want to work something out, there’s no real danger of him jumping to another team before Brave make an offer, long as they let him know they’re going to. Know what I mean? This is a relatively easy situation, if they want to get it done.
monty
October 8th, 2009
12:08 pm
Daslied
I like Kelly but I believe BC used him wrong as the leadoff hitter. History shows he doesn’t do leadoff. However he does hit 6th-8th career wise real well. He has slugged over .500 batting 7th. My personal opinion is he needs a serious case of confidence and how he comes by it I’m not sure. Maybe start off in the minors next season and see if he can tear it up for a month or two(not justfor 7-8 games) but let him get his confidence back and then come back and see what happens or else he just needs a fresh start with another club. But Martin is definitely the man at 2nd until he proves otherwise and I can’t see that happening.
DAP
October 8th, 2009
12:13 pm
monty, if kelly wasnt making so much money, it would make sense to hang onto him and let him try and figure something out. but, at this point, he makes to much money to stick in the minors. he needs to go.
P. W. Hjort
October 8th, 2009
12:15 pm
This comment says it all:
Kelly Jonhson:
An awesome example of how not to treat a young player. Hey, former first round pick with a solid approach at the plate but no position in the field, come on up to the bigs, save our offense and learn to play LF! Oh, you blew out your elbow? That sucks. Now quick, move to second base and bat leadoff…we need you there! You know, take some walks, steal some bases, etc. Nah, you aren’t cutting it there, move farther down and drive in some runs!
Hey kid, I like your approach….no no, actually be more selective…actually, be more agressive. Go the other way! Pull the baseball! etc., etc., etc.
P. W. Hjort
October 8th, 2009
12:17 pm
monty, if kelly wasnt making so much money, it would make sense to hang onto him and let him try and figure something out. but, at this point, he makes to much money to stick in the minors. he needs to go.
That’s just silly. Clubs paid $4.5 million per WAR in 2008. If Kelly can just be a 1-win player (something he did every year of his career before 2009 and likely would have in 2009 if injuries and playing time constrains hadn’t gotten in the way), he’s more than worth his contract.
Capt Morgan
October 8th, 2009
12:24 pm
Hudson was on 680 the fan this morning talking about being willing to accept a “hometown discount” and sign a multi-year deal. He said that he hasn’t had specific talks yet (dollars & years) but both sides seem to be interested.
DAP
October 8th, 2009
12:24 pm
pwhjortIf Kelly can just be a 1-win player (something he did every year of his career before 2009 and likely would have in 2009 if injuries and playing time constrains hadn’t gotten in the way), he’s more than worth his contract.
why, because the cubs did it? no, you are wrong. the braves have to many other needs to pay $3.5 mil to their third string 2nd baseman. if he takes a salary 80% of his 2009 salary, then maybe.
Lew
October 8th, 2009
12:30 pm
Got to agree with DAP on this one. If Kelly were a bona fide option at around $4 million he actually would have played after returning from Gwinnett. He didn’t. If that doesn’t tell you that he’s gone for 2010, I don’t know what will. I know Bobby will say publicly that he hit atem balls and really only had one bad at bat, but actions do speak louder than a Bobby Cox post game comment. Remember, Reitsma only threw one bad pitch that got away from him.
Brad in MT
October 8th, 2009
12:45 pm
Capt Morgan…hearing that news about Hudson makes me really think that they have to bring him back…in this day and age if you can get a player to take a “hometown” discount, esp. someone as good as Huddy, you have to do it, esp. if your a mid market team like the Braves..every dollar they save on a discounted contract can to to fill another need.
AndyC
October 8th, 2009
12:57 pm
“if he’d (Heyward) been in Gwinnett a month or more, he might have been the top prospect in three league.” – DOB
That’s pretty crazy when you think about it.
Il Cattivo
October 8th, 2009
1:04 pm
DOB,
Regarding your comments at 12:06 PM, I remember a similar situation last year with Smoltz, when we all expected that it was a matter of time before he took an incentive laden contract and signed for us. And before we knew it his agent was letting out “feelers” and then.. well we know what happened. Hudson’s case seems a little different, but wouldn’t it be just prudent to tie him up sooner to avoid any agent-fueled shenanigans (or any competing teams come in with high offers).
RC
October 8th, 2009
1:10 pm
“That’s just silly. Clubs paid $4.5 million per WAR in 2008. If Kelly can just be a 1-win player (something he did every year of his career before 2009 and likely would have in 2009 if injuries and playing time constrains hadn’t gotten in the way), he’s more than worth his contract.” – P. W. Hjort
That’s not the entire story though. With a payroll that is well out of the top 10 in baseball, the Braves can’t afford someone who is simply “worth” their contract. Add in the fact that they are on the hook for Chipper and Lowe’s contracts, and they actually need a lot more than one win per $4.5 million spent. Numbers like that are misleading because in order to be a true “market” value, you’d have to exclude all bad contracts and all rookie contracts (since Jurrjens, Escobar, Hanson, and Prado vastly exceed the “value” you generally get from $400,000 players). In a vacuum, Kelly Johnson is worth $4.5 million. He’s just not worth that to the 2010 Atlanta Braves (in my opinion).
jeffrey d
October 8th, 2009
1:11 pm
2:37? 6:07?? Who’s picking these start times? Bobby Cox?
jeffrey d
October 8th, 2009
1:12 pm
And that’s actually 5:07 for St. Louis.
David O'Brien
October 8th, 2009
1:13 pm
Capt Morgan: Huddy has said the same thing to Bowman and myself for the past month, and we’ve written it several times. But I realize you might not read everything written about the team; that’s understandable. Just letting you know, that’s not a new devlopment in any way. He’s been quite candid about that, being willing to take less than the $12 mill option and how he knows there’s still questions about him coming back from injury, etc.
He’s been as good to deal with (so far at least) as a team could possibly hope. Now, dealing with a beat writer is another story (we kid; Huddy and I are fine. Dude is just passionate about winning and was frustrated this spring when it appeared Braves might have missed out on a player that could help them, etc.)
RC
October 8th, 2009
1:14 pm
Il Cattivo,
While I’d agree there are some similarities between Smoltz and Hudson, I really don’t think it’s going to come to that. Due to baseball’s rules, Hudson can’t even TALK to other teams until the World Series is over. I think what DOB means is that IF the Braves decide to offer him a long-term contract, they will probably do so soon after their organizational meetings that are taking place over the next few days, and well before the World Series ends 3-4 weeks from now.
jeffrey d
October 8th, 2009
1:14 pm
Be nice to Captain Morgan, Dave. He makes a lot of people happy with his beverages.
David O'Brien
October 8th, 2009
1:18 pm
II Cattivo — who said they won’t? What, they have to do it three weeks before he can even become a free agent, and before they even have their organizational meetings? Why? Totally different circumstances than with Smoltz, who was a free agent (no option, no nothing) coming back from major shoulder surgery, hadn’t thrown a pitch, was seven years older than Hudson, and wasn’t even a certainty to return period. Completely different circumstances.)
By the way, would you have preferred they jump to sign Smoltz before anyone else did, considering the way things turned out?
jim
October 8th, 2009
1:19 pm
If Heyward arrives before June 1 and gives us something close to Chris Coghlan (more BBs and greater than or equal slugging, fewer hits), then the only positions we need to fill to be competetive next year would be LF, 1B, and 3B — each of which might be filled internally ( a rejuvenated Chipper, signing LaRoche, and a platoon of Diaz and Church). If Heyward’s rookie year is more like Colby Rasmus’s, then we are not as likely to be competetive even with an upgrade at one of the three other positions. Heyward is ready to advance to the next level and cannot be blocked. He may not be ready to put up superstar numbers immediately upon his arrival, but he must be given the opportunity to adjust to ML competition. If he never pans out to be the predicted superstar, then we are screwed because as good as BMac and Yunel might be, neither can be the cornerstone of the team — Yunel won’t be a consistent 100+ RBI man, and McCann is a catcher that must be rested 30 or so games/year and may still wear down in Sept.
Schafer presents a dilemma to the front office. His first trial this year may have been adversely affected by an injury, but, given what he produced at the ML level and his lack of playing time in the minors over the last two years, he cannot be counted upon and will need to play at least 1/2 season in the minors next year. He brings speed and defense, both of which are sorely needed, so it is still in the interest of the team that he is able to contribute in the future at the ML level, but he cannot influence how the roster is prepared for next year.
CrowlerWilkinson
October 8th, 2009
1:26 pm
Next season, if Chipper should struggle prior to the all-star break; then we should trade Chipper Jones and give his position to someone else. Diaz and Church should be platooning and one of the outfielders should come into play third base should Chipper depart. The Braves should trade Kelley Johnson for either a good bat boy or a servicable usher. Another outfield spot is set for Jayson Hayward. If that lineup emerges, WATCH OUT! The Braves will be lethal and will be powerful enough to win the whole thing!
RC
October 8th, 2009
1:27 pm
jim,
I agree with you on Schafer. My guess is that he ends up getting an opportunity at some point in the next season due to injury, and takes advantage of that opportunity to solidify himself as a starting MLB centerfielder.
RC
October 8th, 2009
1:30 pm
CrowlerWilkinson,
I will say what numerous others have said before me: That Braves cannot trade Chipper Jones without his permission, due to the fact he is a 10-year veteran with 5 years on his current team. Again, Major League Baseball rules prevent the Braves from tradinging Chipper Jones without his permission. And Chipper has no incentive to give his permission to such a trade.
Daslied
October 8th, 2009
1:31 pm
Monty – I agree about KJ not being a leadoff hitter. If he’s here, he should definitely be hitting 7th (.900 career OPS in 203 PA) or 8th (.801 career OPS in 179 PA). Either would be stellar production from that spot.
McFann Ô
October 8th, 2009
1:33 pm
jeffrey d 2:37? 6:07?? Who’s picking these start times? Bobby Cox?
Lunatic Fringe
October 8th, 2009
1:33 pm
jim
Interesting argument, but there will still be a problem with the lineup. You can’t expect Heyward to bat 4th. LaRoche, Diaz, Church are all 6-7-8 guys. I still think they need to go get a LF that can bat 4th, or someone at 1st. That was one of the problems this year, no consistent power behind Chipper, and guys not in a good lineup spot for them, making them play(bat) out of character (McCann, Yunel).
McFann Ô
October 8th, 2009
1:35 pm
Daslied If he’s here, he should definitely be hitting 7th (.900 career OPS in 203 PA) or 8th (.801 career OPS in 179 PA). Either would be stellar production from that spot.
You should know career numbers don’t matter when it comes to where a guy’s gonna bat in the lineup!
Honestly…did you learn nothing from ‘09?
ncscoots
October 8th, 2009
1:37 pm
but [Schafer] cannot influence how the roster is prepared for next year.
Of course not. Nor should Heyward, but I see that you are ready to anoint him, LOL. You have it exactly backwards, I’m afraid: upgrade significantly at some offensive position, and you don’t have to count on Heyward to be anything more than a decent rookie (assuming he makes the club in 2010). The other way ’round doesn’t strike me much as a Plan A.
jeffrey d
October 8th, 2009
1:40 pm
I just heard Hamels complaining about having a weird start time two days in a row. He says they’re used to playing either at 1 or at 7.
McFann Ô
October 8th, 2009
1:41 pm
jeffrey d He says they’re used to playing either at 1 or at 7.
Aw! Poor thing! Well, they just shouldn’t have made the playoffs then…gosh. I just…I just feel so terrible for them!
jeffrey d
October 8th, 2009
1:42 pm
Which I guess makes sense, but what about when you’re playing in St. Louis or California? That really messes up the schedule, eh?
What what about the Pirates? They’re the only team in their division that’s not in CST. Guess that’s why they’ve been so terrible. The talent’s there, but they can’t handle the time changes.
rammerjammer
October 8th, 2009
1:45 pm
Kawakami for Gamel? We dump KK’s salary and get Chipper’s heir apparent for cheap, then use KK’s and Garret’s salary slots to sign Mike Cameron. Yeah, I can see that happening.
RHR
October 8th, 2009
1:46 pm
Dude is just passionate about winning and was frustrated this spring when it appeared Braves might have missed out on a player that could help them, etc.)
The pee guy is going to be so disappointed to read that.
DAP
October 8th, 2009
1:48 pm
Aw! Poor thing! Well, they just shouldn’t have made the playoffs then…gosh. I just…I just feel so terrible for them!
love it.
McFann Ô
October 8th, 2009
1:50 pm
jeffrey d Guess that’s why they’ve been so terrible. The talent’s there, but they can’t handle the time changes.
Haha! There’s a theory for ya…
BTW–The “enter your comments here” thing has been disappearing automatically for me these few posts. Nice…
McFann Ô
October 8th, 2009
1:50 pm
DAP–
Thank you!
Jake W.
October 8th, 2009
1:51 pm
“I just heard Hamels complaining about having a weird start time two days in a row. He says they’re used to playing either at 1 or at 7.”-jeffrey d
It is a crap start time especially for the defending champs, but hey thats the way it works. Rocks/Phils isn’t exactly a marquee matchup. Out of all the series they probably feel thats the series that would draw the smallest tv audience but Cole knows that or at least he should. Did he think the Yanks would get that time? They will be in primetime though when they go west to Colorado I think.
Random
October 8th, 2009
1:51 pm
Brad in MT (October 8th, 2009 12:45 pm): “Capt Morgan…hearing that news about Hudson makes me really think that they have to bring him back…in this day and age if you can get a player to take a “hometown” discount, esp. someone as good as Huddy, you have to do it, esp. if your a mid market team like the Braves..every dollar they save on a discounted contract can to to fill another need”
How can the Braves expect a “hometown” discount from either Hudson or LaRoche if they won’t give them No-Trade clauses?
(Oops! If Hudson does re-sign with the Braves, he’ll be a 10-5 guy — a no-trade clause would not be an issue. *)
But what about LaRoche???
* CBA ARTICLE XIX—Assignment of Player Contracts
A. Consent to Assignment
(1) The contract of a Player with ten or more years of Major League service, the last five of which have been with one Club, shall not be assignable to another Major League Club without the Player’s written consent.
P. W. Hjort
October 8th, 2009
1:53 pm
RC -
That’s not the entire story though. With a payroll that is well out of the top 10 in baseball, the Braves can’t afford someone who is simply “worth” their contract.
Well, you’re just making things up. The Braves’ 2009 payroll was $94,313,666, that ranked 12th in baseball. The 10th ranked team spent $100,598,500. In 2008 the Braves ranked 10th.
Add in the fact that they are on the hook for Chipper and Lowe’s contracts, and they actually need a lot more than one win per $4.5 million spent.
First of all, it’s $4.5 million per WAR (win above replacement), not $4.5 million per win. Secondly, Chipper and Lowe, even in the bad years they had this season, are worth their contracts.
Numbers like that are misleading because in order to be a true “market” value, you’d have to exclude all bad contracts and all rookie contracts (since Jurrjens, Escobar, Hanson, and Prado vastly exceed the “value” you generally get from $400,000 players).
You don’t think the people at fangraphs considered this? I’d link to the 10-part series where they explain how they come up with their win-values, but you probably wouldn’t read it anyway. Not that I blame you, it’s very long and probably rather boring if you’re not fascinated with the research. But they take everything you say into consideration. The $4.5 million per WAR is what teams pay on the free agent market. I.E. market rate. And you still have to consider “bad” contracts. The bad contracts are still contracts right?
In a vacuum, Kelly Johnson is worth $4.5 million. He’s just not worth that to the 2010 Atlanta Braves (in my opinion).
If he were a 1-win player in 2010 (he’ll probably be at least a 2-win player. He was a 3.1-win player in 2007 and a 2.1-win player in 2008. He was a 1.7-win player in 2005 mostly because he played LF where the replacement level is higher. He would’ve been a 2+ win player playing 2nd base. He was a 0.7-win player in 2009 in about 60% of a season worth of PA’s and defensive innings), he’d be worth more than $4.5 million to the Braves because they’re right at the threshold where every win matters. Teams are willing to spend a lot more to get from 91 to 92 wins than they are to get from 66 to 67 or 105 to 106.
DAP –
why, because the cubs did it?
That’s clubs not cubs. As in baseball teams. Not baseball teams on the north side of Chicago.
no, you are wrong. the braves have to many other needs to pay $3.5 mil to their third string 2nd baseman. if he takes a salary 80% of his 2009 salary, then maybe.
Value is value no matter what you’re going to call him. Call him the 8th string pitcher or the 10th string catcher, if his on-field production is worth more than his salary it’s a favorable contract. If you can get 2 wins out of your 2nd string 2B and pay him less than $4.5 million, you’re in very good shape.
Thrillhouse44
October 8th, 2009
1:53 pm
we kid; Huddy and I are fine.
You should show him Loaf’s numbers and The Kid’s. Then tell him “you’re welcome”.
jim
October 8th, 2009
1:58 pm
Lunatic,
Based on his production this year (and even his power production in the 2nd half of last year) Chipper should not be hitting 3rd next year. That spot in the order should eventually fall to Heyward, but will not likely be given to him next year. That puts Chipper and Heyward in that 6, 7, 8 mix you mentioned earlier. The team as currently projected does not have a legitimate # 3 or # 4 hitter. Chipper will probably hit # 3 by default, but then if the other internal candidates are not typical middle of the order hitters who do we get that is? Names like Konerko, Ludwig, Dye etc. that have been bandided about here on this blog do not strike me as a big enough upgrade to make our lineup that much better than it was this year. The teams in the playoffs right now have people like Howard and Utley, Kemp and Ethier and Manny, Pujols and Holliday, Tex and A-Rod, Youklis and Ortiz, Vlad, Helton and Tulo, Mauer (with Morneau also on the roster) anchoring their lineup.
Random
October 8th, 2009
1:58 pm
jim (October 8th, 2009 1:19 pm): “Yunel won’t be a consistent 100+ RBI man”
I believe you’re wrong there.
Given Escobar’s talent and ability (.301/.375/.426), whether or not he becomes “a consistent 100+ RBI man” will depend solely on where he bats in the line-up and who gets on base in front of him.
Daslied
October 8th, 2009
1:58 pm
rammerjammer – I’m not sure about Gamel being a future 3rd baseman for anyone. He has an .883 fielding percentage in his minors career, and he made 7 errors in 27 games @ 3rd for the Brewers this year. He might be a pretty good player, but I doubt he stays at 3rd.
Milwaukee had a similar situation with Ryan Braun. He made 26 errors in 112 games at 3rd his rookie year, and has been in left ever since. Gamel’s not (yet) the hitter Braun is, but not many are…
DAP
October 8th, 2009
2:00 pm
pwh jort That’s clubs not cubs.
haha, my bad. but still, the braves could sign a player for $9mil thats worth 5 or 6 wins above replacement value, and use kellys salary to help pay him. thats a wiser use of funds, obviously. and kelly is going to have hard time getting the braves 1 extra win above replacement sitting on the bench as the third strong 2nd baseman.
Efrim
October 8th, 2009
2:01 pm
Alex (Los Angeles)
What do the Braves need to do in the offseason to push them over the hump? 94 run differential this year is a hopeful sign, right?
Klaw (1:53 PM)
Another bat and some relief help since Soriano and Gonzalez are free agents. Using Lowe to try to get one of those things would be smart.
Lunatic Fringe
October 8th, 2009
2:01 pm
P. W. Hjort
But Kelly still has to play to get that value from him. For him to play, he has to play 2nd, which means Prado has to play somewhere else. I would venture to say that Prado’s value is better that Kelly’s. If you move Prado somewhere else, then you are hurting the club overall, since he is not what we need at LF or 1st which are the only other viable options I see.
RC
October 8th, 2009
2:03 pm
P.W. Hjort,
“You don’t think the people at fangraphs considered this? I’d link to the 10-part series where they explain how they come up with their win-values, but you probably wouldn’t read it anyway.”
Actually, if you wouldn’t mind linking to it, I would be interested in reading that. I read fangraphs quite a bit, and think they have a lot of people that do very good research.
I’m afraid my point got a bit lost in my explanation. My comment about “not in the top 10 payrolls” was more to explain that if you are referring to WARP as the “value” a player is worth, you are assuming that most teams operate completely efficiently, which is simply not true. If every team did operate at 100% efficiency, then the Braves would never make the playoffs because the teams with the top 8 payrolls would be in it every year.
What I was really trying to get at is that while Kelly Johnson might be “worth” $4.5 million, he’s not worth that to the Braves in 2010. First, a lot of his worth this season was based on playing time he got earlier in the year….he will not get that next year unless an injury gives him that opportunity.
Secondly, the “value” of a player is largely based on the team for which he plays. For instance, Adam Dunn would have had a lot more “value” for the Braves this season than the Nationals. Had he been on the Braves, they likely make the postseason. The Nationals had the worst record in baseball even with Dunn, so aside from the extra revenue he might have generated he had zero value over a replacement player for them on the field this year.
Actually, I think I’m getting more into the arguement off marginal value per win, which for the Braves this year was huge (since they missed the playoffs by only a few wins).
flange 1
October 8th, 2009
2:03 pm
PWH,
Great quote at 12:15 on KJ. I have always thought he would have been a better player if the Braves couldhave given him some stability on where he hit in the lineup. I agree with Lew that he will probably be traded and I hope he can succeed somewhere else.
Lunatic Fringe
October 8th, 2009
2:06 pm
jim,
Agree with your 1:58, which is why they have to go externally to fill the need. Internally they will continue to have lineup issues. The guys you mentioned, Konerko, Ludwig, Dye etc, are also not optimal 4 spot hitters but hopefully there is someone else we cam get,
CrowlerWilkinson
October 8th, 2009
2:17 pm
RC: Youre right about Chipper; but whether or not Chipper has a no-trade contract or not if Chippers performance continues as it was this year, the Braves will get rid of Chipper Jones by EATING his contract and sending him packing on his way. Chipper has the same problem that Tom Glavine and John Smoltz had. FATHER TIME HAS CAUGHT UP TO CHIPPER JONES. HE IS LITERALLY TOO OLD TO BE PRODUCTIVE. That being said, bring in Jayson Haywood immediately and give Jones his walking papers if he refuses a trade. The Braves have too much good young talent for Chipper to be blocking someone from blossoming into a star. I didnt even mention “friendly” Freddie Freeman. The Braves are PACKED with talent and only the best players should be playing. Period. End of Story.
RHR
October 8th, 2009
2:20 pm
Oh what a surprise. I see its another day of irrational KJ love.
Whoever said Chipper was the derek jeter of the NL has clearly never read this blog or they’d know the REAL Jeter of the NL is … Kelly Johnson.
RHR
October 8th, 2009
2:22 pm
OMG THIS BETTER BE FALSE.
With five starting pitchers, and potentially six if Tim Hudson is included, considered proven commodities, the Atlanta Braves may be able to fill their needs on offense by dealing away one of their starting pitchers.
Manager Bobby Cox and third baseman Chipper Jones are dead set against that pitcher being Javier Vazquez, however, leaving Jair Jurrjens and Derek Lowe as the most likely candidates to be traded.
It’s rarely difficult to trade a cheap, young starter that can eat up innings such as Jurrjens, and Lowe is known as a workhorse, so teams should be lining up to make offers.
Such trade subjects can often play a large role in the free agent market, so this will a scenario to keep an eye on. Stay tuned.
JAIR? NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO absolutely not. Where are they getting this?
RC
October 8th, 2009
2:23 pm
CrowlerWilkinson,
1. When you type in all caps and make ridiculous statements it makes it hard to take you seriously. Chipper Jones is one year removed from winning a batting title. You don’t pay someone like that over $40 million to “go away”.
2. His name is “Jason Heyward” not “Jayson Haywood”. When you grossly misspell the name of the prospect you want brought up, it makes you look like you don’t know what you are talking about.
3. Heyward plays RF. Jones plays 3b. When you suggest that the Braves “bring in Jayson Haywood immediately and give Jones his walking papers if he refuses a trade” without addressing who will play 3b for them, it makes you look like you know nothing about baseball.
Period. End of Story.
DAP
October 8th, 2009
2:29 pm
RHR, whos they?
rammerjammer
October 8th, 2009
2:32 pm
Daslied,
You may be right about Hamel. I tend to ignore minor league fielding stats but he wasn’t much better in Milwaukee. Still, he’s just a kid and did some fine hitting in the minors, and I don’t see Chipper’s replacement in our pipeline. Besides, the real motivation in the deal would be to add a RH outfield upgrade without adding significantly to payroll.
BobbyPritchard
October 8th, 2009
2:32 pm
Vasquez SHOULD NOT be traded under any circumstance. Heck, Vasquez’ name SHOULDNT be brought up at all in trade conversations. I see the Braves having only two tradeable players who are not helping us. Chipper Jones and Kelly Johnson. Trade BOTH guys for a power bat or resign Gary Sheffield to a contract. Either or both of those solutions will solve the Braves problem of having a power bat in the middle of the lineup.
P. W. Hjort
October 8th, 2009
2:32 pm
DAP -
the braves could sign a player for $9mil thats worth 5 or 6 wins above replacement value, and use kellys salary to help pay him.
Signing free agents is the least payroll-efficient way to acquire talent. Using your 5-win plateau, there were 24 position players in MLB in 2009 that were worth 5+ WAR. Of those 24, there were only 7 that have 6+ years of service time (previously qualified for free agency or would have been had they not signed a long-term contract before they qualified for FA)–Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, Derek Jeter, Miguel Cabrera, Derrek Lee, Mark Teixeira, and Ichiro Suzuki. Their 2009 salaries: Teixeira made $20 million, Jeter made $20 million, Ichiro made $17 million, Utley made $11 million, Cabrera made $15 million, Lee made $13 million, and Pujols made $16 million. The dream of signing a 5-win player for $9 million dollars is just that, a dream.
Lunatic Fringe
But Kelly still has to play to get that value from him. For him to play, he has to play 2nd, which means Prado has to play somewhere else. I would venture to say that Prado’s value is better that Kelly’s. If you move Prado somewhere else, then you are hurting the club overall, since he is not what we need at LF or 1st which are the only other viable options I see.
But it’s not inconceivable that Kelly could get plenty of playing time as a non-starter. He could get a few starts at a corner OF, a few starts at 2B when Prado needs to play 1B because the Braves’ 1B (whoever that may be) needs a day off, a few starts at 2B when Chipper’s out and Prado’s playing 3B, pinch-hitting, pinch-running, defensive replacement, etc…
RC -
Actually, if you wouldn’t mind linking to it, I would be interested in reading that. I read fangraphs quite a bit, and think they have a lot of people that do very good research.
Sure. It’s at the bottom of this page. I misspoke, it’s actually 2 7-part series’. One for position players, one for pitchers.
If every team did operate at 100% efficiency, then the Braves would never make the playoffs because the teams with the top 8 payrolls would be in it every year.
Well, luck happens. For instance, the Braves had the highest 3rd-order winning percentage in the NL this year but didn’t make the playoffs. And again, this just refers to the FA market. Your point holds true if and only if every player is a free agent every season and entropy didn’t exist.
First, a lot of his worth this season was based on playing time he got earlier in the year
Quite the contrary. His value was negative for most of the first half. What made his contract an efficient one was the .851 OPS he posted after his DL stint. Also, see above. There are plenty of opportunities for bench players to provide value. Also, everyone salivates over pitching depth, why is position player depth a bad thing?
Secondly, the “value” of a player is largely based on the team for which he plays. For instance, Adam Dunn would have had a lot more “value” for the Braves this season than the Nationals. Had he been on the Braves, they likely make the postseason. The Nationals had the worst record in baseball even with Dunn, so aside from the extra revenue he might have generated he had zero value over a replacement player for them on the field this year.
I don’t see how this supports your point. Actually, it supports mine. The Braves are at the point where each win is crucial. Like I said earlier in the thread:
If he were a 1-win player in 2010 (he’ll probably be at least a 2-win player. He was a 3.1-win player in 2007 and a 2.1-win player in 2008. He was a 1.7-win player in 2005 mostly because he played LF where the replacement level is higher. He would’ve been a 2+ win player playing 2nd base. He was a 0.7-win player in 2009 in about 60% of a season worth of PA’s and defensive innings), he’d be worth more than $4.5 million to the Braves because they’re right at the threshold where every win matters. Teams are willing to spend a lot more to get from 91 to 92 wins than they are to get from 66 to 67 or 105 to 106.
The Braves are in that territory. So talent is worth more to them than it is to the Pirates. Given the option of picking up a 1-win player for $4.5 million or doing without, they acquire the 1-win player.
Soph
October 8th, 2009
2:35 pm
Manager Bobby Cox and third baseman Chipper Jones are dead set against that pitcher being Javier Vazquez, however, leaving Jair Jurrjens and Derek Lowe as the most likely candidates to be traded.
Hell to the no on JJ. No way.
jeffrey d
October 8th, 2009
2:36 pm
That’s bolagna. Where are you getting that RHR?
Il Cattivo
October 8th, 2009
2:36 pm
DOB and RC,
Points noted. I am not saying that they need to sign him right now, but am just wondering if the Smoltz episode will be in the back of their minds and hence will try to finish it before the option decision date, never letting it get to the free agency stage.
DOB – on the Smoltz thing – I certainly wouldn’t have wanted to sign him, especially on the terms that he wanted. The Braves offer definitely seemed fair, and Hudson seems to understand that better (so far).
RHR
October 8th, 2009
2:41 pm
mlb trade rumors on espn insider
RC
October 8th, 2009
2:41 pm
CrowlerWilkinson,
1. Teams tend to not “eat” $40 million+ to tell their franchise player to “go away”, especially when he’s 1 year removed from a batting title. Typing it in all caps doesn’t really help you point either.
2. His name is Jason Heyward. Not Jayson Haywood. When you misspell a name that terribly, it makes it appear you don’t know what you are talking about.
3. Heyward plays Rf. Chipper play 3b. To suggest the Braves “bring in Jayson Haywood immediately and give Jones his walking papers if he refuses a trade” without addressing who they get to play 3b you undermine yourself by coming across like you know nothing about baseball.
Period. End of Story.
Jeff R
October 8th, 2009
2:41 pm
I think most of us are pulling for Freddie Freeman. But when it comes to LaRoche, you have to go with the old “bird in the hand” thinking.
Even if LaRoche signs a three-year deal with the Braves, as a matter of policy, management won’t grant a no-trade clause.
I can’t imagine that LaRoche’s contract will be prohibitive. If Freeman looks like he’ll be ready in 2011, then shop LaRoche. I’m assuming, of course, that LaRoche is meeting or acceding this year’s performance. No guarentee, but not an unfair assumption.
But losing LaRoche in 2010 matters more than might be assumed. His offense and glove are solid; he plays well with the current crop of Braves. He’ll be hard to replace.
And Freeman might not pan out. Always possible. Sign LaRoche and see where Freeman goes in the next 12 to 18 months.
P. W. Hjort
October 8th, 2009
2:42 pm
Some nuggets from the Southern League chat, currently taking place:
Peter (Atlanta, GA): What’s the outlook for Brandon Hicks? He had a bad season, but at least his contact rates improved. Is he even a prospect at this point?
Ben Badler: Defensively he does a lot of things well. He’s got a great arm, a quick release, good range, hands and footwork. Offensively? No so much, although he is an efficient basestealer. He’s a free swinger who makes a ton of outs and needs to become less pull-oriented with his approach, but a 24-year-old with those type of contact issues might be too great to overcome.
——
Fred (Ohio): If Atlanta would not have traded Gorkys Hernandez, would he have made this list? It seems like his star is beginning to dim because of questions about the bat.
Ben Badler: Hernandez did qualify for the list, but the questions about his hitting did keep him off the list. His swing gets long and he chases too many pitches. What he does have is outstanding speed, excellent range and a strong arm at a premium defensive position, which will give him some value, but he’s also going to make a ton of outs.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/chat/?1255015101
flange 1
October 8th, 2009
2:43 pm
RHR,
There have been “reporters” and “experts” that have been saying all year that JJJ is having better results than he should by looking at advanced stats and have recommended the Braves trade him while his value is high now.
I think both Steve from OH and PWH have both provided links in the past to these guys quotes.
I think it is hot air, but when the “experts” talk you never know…
Except when it comes to KJ….
Robert
October 8th, 2009
2:43 pm
“Robert, based on this, one could argue that Jeter made Torre look better than he actually was”
Absolutely. Having the Yankees roster, not just Jeter, helped make Torre look good
Torre is a good manager – in the top quarter. Not a GREAT manager. Not one of the best ever. All that said, he is LIGHT YEARS ahead of Cox
How come with Torre, you can see that the player/s make him look good, but with Cox it’s always the opposite – it’s always “well who cares if we had Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz and at least two other future HOFers on the roster – those guys couldnt get out of bed in the morning much less win 90 games a year if it werent for Cox”?
Oh, maybe because those guys didnt make Cox look good. They were enough to make him appear, on the surface, to maybe be barely competent, but only if you are blind. He, on the other hand, made some great players look bad by misusing them
RHR
October 8th, 2009
2:44 pm
I don’t want Javy to be traded but I’d rather him be traded than JJ! Tommy, JJ, and Javy need to be the 1-2-3 anyone after that, can be traded but none of those 3 should be traded. I’d rather Lowe AND KK go than JJ. NO. I don’t even care who we got in return.