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2,373 comments Add your comment
Rock On......
September 25th, 2009
10:41 am
McFan…not talking about this year LOL. Want to get him to 30 next year. Hopefully along with LaRoche and our yet unknown BIG BAT.
Frank Wren
September 25th, 2009
10:43 am
Bobby Petrino sucks.
McFann :Ô:
September 25th, 2009
10:43 am
Rock On–
Oh…well, 30 HR for next works, too.
At the beginning of this year, I was really hoping for 48 doubles (or 43)…he’s got 35, now, so I’m just thinkin’ 40 would be nice. He needs to hit at least a couple more before the season ends…
Frank Wren
September 25th, 2009
10:45 am
I think tech was a little overrated this year 2 no???
Runnin
September 25th, 2009
10:48 am
Shaun, I’m sure there’s a ranking list somewhere on winning percentage with a 3 run lead and Huddy is on or near the top. Otherwise, why would announcers always bring this up? Here’s a list on all time winning percentage. Huddy at #20.
http://www.baseball-almanac.com/pitching/piwper1.shtml
N8 (is it 2011 yet?)
September 25th, 2009
10:54 am
Guys, you keep stating “3 run lead” when making this argument. To my knowledge, (and I could be wrong – wouldn’t be the first time), it was NOT “3-run lead”, it was when his team “scores at least three runs”.
It’s a hard stat to track. I’m not sure if it is going by how many runs the team scores when that pitcher is in the game or if it’s runs for the game.
Because clearly, when Kawakami and Vazquez have been given run support, they’ve held the fort down and won games.
I think the stat is for when they are in the game, and it’s a testiment to how well they pitch with a lead. Meaning that they are “finishers”. They know how to put a team away.
But stating what pitcher does with a 3-run lead is silly. If the Braves win 10-7, you can sight all the pitching stats you want, but you’re not going to convince me that a pitcher getting the W in that game did anythnig other than implode less than the opposing pitcher did.
I know for a FACT that when TBS stated Maddux’s record in those situations, that it was simply when his team scored 3 runs. Because the second the Braves scored their 3rd run when he pitched, it was like clockwork. That stat would magically appear.
Shaun
September 25th, 2009
10:55 am
I’m still working on finding pitchers’ records when their team gives them a 3-runs-or-more lead.
But here is something that somewhat relates: Since 1999 (the year Hudson started his career) major league teams have a .635 winning percentage in games in which they score 3 runs or more. That’s about the same winning percentage as this year’s Yankees. This somewhat relates because obviously in order to build a 3-runs-or-more lead a team would have to score 3 runs or more in a game.
Shaun
September 25th, 2009
11:02 am
Shaun, I’m sure there’s a ranking list somewhere on winning percentage with a 3 run lead and Huddy is on or near the top. Otherwise, why would announcers always bring this up? Here’s a list on all time winning percentage. Huddy at #20.
Announcers bring up stuff like this all the time. How many times did you hear or read about the Yankees’ record when leading after 7 innings back in the late 1990s? Yet, no one bothered to say that most teams have impressive records (compared to a typical record) when they lead after 7 innings.
I’m sure that Hudson is ranked high, along with tons of other pitchers, when their teams give them a 3-runs-or-more lead. I could be wrong. The verdict is still out until someone can find out where we can look it up. I think it’s very reasonable to assume that it’s difficult for a pitcher to lose a game in which his team gives him a 3-runs-or-more lead. But as soon as I or someone can find the data, we won’t have to assume.
HoCoJo
September 25th, 2009
11:03 am
Hey Atlantans, what time is the next round a rain due in? Have plans to see Tech and Tar Heels.
McFann :Ô:
September 25th, 2009
11:03 am
Neight it was NOT “3-run lead”, it was when his team “scores at least three runs”.
I’m pretty sure you are correct.
Runnin
September 25th, 2009
11:04 am
The final score isn’t the thing. I believe the stat comes from starters only and I always thought it was when given a 3 run lead or more, not just scoring 3 runs, but I could be mistaken.
Maybe DOB will chime in and tell us when this comes from.
abwright
September 25th, 2009
11:06 am
Bay Area Steve, 2:25 am … “Is there any reasoning with the haters?”
One step further, …
If the Braves win the World Serious in 7 games, they should have done it in six.
If the Braves win two out of four World Serious, they should have won all four.
It is such a safe position to take (being a hater). You can always dream a more impossible dream and blame the person you hate for not attaining it.
DAP
September 25th, 2009
11:07 am
it was NOT “3-run lead”, it was when his team “scores at least three runs”.
i said the same thing earlier. thats the stat i always heard, but if you look on the hudson foundation website, it actually says 3 run lead, so…..
richbrave
September 25th, 2009
11:10 am
Dreams of things to come in 2010:
McLOUTH improves as the lead-off man with PRADO behind him next year. PRADO proves he’s a .300+ hitter and sets the table for CHIP. JONES rebounds and has a great year of 20 HR and 90 RBI with MATT HOLLIDAY backing him up with 30 HR’s and 100+ RBI because McCANN’s the man, and nobody wants to pitch to him with his eye problems solved. ESCOBAR continues to rake with RISP while La ROCHE continues his slugging ways with 30 homers and 80+ RBI’s, DIAZ mans the eight hole while continuing to murder left-handers of all abilities, and improves against average righties. Well, I can dream can’t I? What a perfect world that would be.
BTW get ready for more dodgy games between light rain to steady downpours with an occasional deluge similar to ATLANTA’s woes for tonight and the next two days/nights in D.C. Nor’easter trying to form off the coast. That’s typically a three day rain event usually accompanied by high winds and surf. Our own little counter clock-wise tormenta. Small hurricane for the uninformed. On occasion, we catch some slack and it doesn’t stall off the coast, and really get churning. Hopefully, that’s the case this time. We’ll know by tomorrow.
Daybed Wagmoe
September 25th, 2009
11:10 am
DOB — Asking a clarifying question here: in the article that has all of the statements about Bobby by Braves players, there’s one by Javier Lopez. Now, Javier Lopez is a relief pitcher for the Red Sox, and he’s never played for the Braves. Is this quote from Braves’ former catcher Javy Lopez, or Braves current pitcher Javier Vazquez?
N8 (is it 2011 yet?)
September 25th, 2009
11:11 am
Then again, if you guys want to continue arguing over numbers when a pitcher is given a 3 run lead, be my guest. LOL
Perhaps a more impressive number/stat would be what a guy’s record is when his teams scores ONLY 3 runs (or less)? To me, THAT would show how well he consistently gives up fewer runs than other pitchers, because in the end, the W-L record for a pitcher is so predicated on what his offense and defense does.
Show me the TEAM records when a certain pitcher pitches and that team scores 3 runs or less. Then we’ll have a stat to bicker over. Take Vazquez for instance.
The Braves went 2-10 as a team, in the 12 starts he made, in which the team scored 3 runs or less. In those 10 losses, in which the Braves scored 3 runs or less Vazquez gave up 3-5-5-1-2-1-4-1-4-5 runs.
So who’s to blame? The offense? The Pitching? Would he have pitched differently with some runs on the board? Would the offense have performed better if not trailing 3-0 or 4-0? Clearly in 5 of those games, Vazquez didn’t pitch very well. So for all the whining about run support, he’s been 50/50 in those games, as far as having a good game.
He’s had plenty of no decisions in games where he’s pitched lights out, I get that. So don’t bash me for dissing Vazquez. I’m not.
McFann :Ô:
September 25th, 2009
11:13 am
richbrave because McCANN’s the man, and nobody wants to pitch to him with his eye problems solved.
Sounds good to me…
Matter of fact, your dream for ‘10 is pretty much my dream for ‘10…but IDK if we could get Holliday.
DAP
September 25th, 2009
11:16 am
daybed, you do know that javy’s real name is javier, right?
N8 (is it 2011 yet?)
September 25th, 2009
11:22 am
Shaun, calculating what a team does when scoring 3 runs or more is off the point of what a particular pitcher’s record is in that situation of run support, while they are in the game.
Most can agree that a pitcher’s W-L record has more to do with their teammates than them (for the most part). What this stat shows, is that when given 3 runs of support (while in the game), they can finish the job. League average this year for ERA is 4.31 (AL is 4.41, NL is 4.21).
So, the odds are (like you stated), when a team scores 3 runs and especially 4 runs, more often than not they are going to win. But who gets that win? The starter, or the middle relief guy? Perhaps it’s the closer who blew the save, and then the offense bailed him out in extra innings?
The fact that Tim Hudson (or any great pitcher with a long productive career), had that many DECISIONS shows that he’s doing a good job.
It’s no less of a stat in terms of being meaningful, than say the “quality start” stat, which is giving credit to the pitcher for being worse than league average (don’t get me started on that!).
But in the end, I’ll agree with you that until we find a “standard” to go by it’s going to be tough to argue either side without speculating. But to speculate, I’ll assume that it’s impressive.
To me, it was never about the win total. Maddux was great. We all knew how great he was, and that with those offenses the Braves put out there with him, he (and the Braves were going to win games). What was impressive to me, was how FEW losses there were.
Didn’t mean that the TEAM didn’t lose some games that he started when they scored 3 runs. He had plenty of no-decisions in his career too. But the fact that Maddux and Hudson didn’t rack up losses as the pitcher of record in those games, is a testiment to how consistent they were in their prime.
I suspect, the Tommy Hanson “with 3 runs of support” numbers will start showing up in Braves broadcasts pretty soon.
ugaaccountant
September 25th, 2009
11:33 am
N8, I don’t feel you have a grasp at all of how good Vasquez has been this year. You act as if he has somehow routinely failed the team because you found 5 games where he gave up 4 or more runs. That’s not very many at all, even when compared with other star pitchers. His era is under 3 which these days is star territory.
glord1
September 25th, 2009
11:36 am
On Hudsons foundation bio is a stat that he is 105-2 when his team gives him a 3 run lead. I believe this is the stat that the anouncers were using.
Can we drop te Hudson/3 run lead convo?
September 25th, 2009
11:40 am
Thanks.
Chi-town fan
September 25th, 2009
11:42 am
Anyone worried about Vasquez tonight? As a Sox fan I think you should be on edge. Don’t get me wrong, I like him overall, but not in a game as big as tonight’s. This guy failed miserably in the clutch last year.
Tell It Like It Is
September 25th, 2009
11:42 am
richbrave,
I am not a Braves hater, but if you think the Braves can compete with some of the same guys they have this year, then you trully are dreaming. I hope that they do not waste millions on Holliday and Hudson. Pay the minimum salary guys more money( especially JJ and Yunel) and pray that they can keep them when arbitration and/or salary adjustments come into play. I have a bad feeling that they will be gone before too long. IT IS WHAT IT IS.
jim
September 25th, 2009
11:43 am
When does the conversation become about how we are going to match up in the playoffs this year instread of who’s going to be on the team next year?
Shaun
September 25th, 2009
11:46 am
N8,
The fact that Tim Hudson (or any great pitcher with a long productive career), had that many DECISIONS shows that he’s doing a good job.
I suppose I agree here. Any pitcher with lots of decisions in any scenario is probably doing something right because it means he’s good enough for teams to keep running him out there.
But the issue is that most pitchers, whether they are good or not so good, are going to win games in which their team gives them a 3-runs-or-more lead. I wouldn’t be shocked if Mark Redman had a high winning percentage in games in which he was given a 3-runs-or-more lead; in fact I would be more shocked if he didn’t have a high winning percentage in those situations.
It’s no less of a stat in terms of being meaningful, than say the “quality start” stat, which is giving credit to the pitcher for being worse than league average (don’t get me started on that!).
Well, the worst quality start is a 4.50 ERA. But the average ERA in quality starts from 1984 to 1991 was 1.91 (according this study: http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/qstart.htm).
Efrim
September 25th, 2009
11:47 am
Anyone worried about Vasquez tonight? As a Sox fan I think you should be on edge. Don’t get me wrong, I like him overall, but not in a game as big as tonight’s. This guy failed miserably in the clutch last year.
We wouldn’t be 3 games back in the loss column from the Rockies without Vazquez, so….
Lew
September 25th, 2009
11:52 am
Tell It Like It Is-Jurrjens is under Braves’ contractual control for four more seasons. Nothing he nor his agent Scott Boras can do about that. I’d like to see him locked up like Brian McCann was, but Boras IS his agent. We’ll see, but like I said-we got him until 2013 one way or another.
Yunel is still a Braves’ player for another three years, as well. Let’s see how he does next year and with a new manager who might not put up with his lapses as well as Bobby has. Hell, Pinella might have sent him on vacation with Meltdown or maybe bludgeoned him with one of the bases if he were in Chicago. Also, don’t forget he’s missed considerable time the past two years. I think the book is still open on his durability and definitely on his attitude.
N8 (is it 2011 yet?)
September 25th, 2009
11:53 am
ugaaccountant, for starters… GIVE ME A BREAK!!!
At the end of that post, I stated that I wasn’t dissing him. I realize how good he’s been.
2nd of all, the topic at hand is W-L record when a team scores 3 runs. So me finding 5 games that he’s failed is RELEVANT to the conversation.
Find another tree to bark up, but if you want to play the “how good Vazquez has been” game, we’ll find out after tonight how much of an Ace he is. We’re 3.5 games back of the wild card.
On August 15th at home against the Phillies, we were trailing by 5 games. He gave up 4 runs in a loss.
His next start against the Marlins (who at the time were ahead of us in the WC standings), he gave up 5 runs in a loss.
Not saying those are horrible outings. But believe me. I know how good Vazquez has been with pressure on him to lead the staff, and when not. Ask Ozzie how Vazquez does under pressure.
If Vazquez has a dominating game tonight (quite possible his biggest game in a Braves uniform), I’ll let every Ozzie Guillen comment, and my own opinion of his past choke jobs in big games fade into a faint memory. But if he doesn’t…..
How confident are you that he’ll lead the Braves to victory over Lannan and the Nats?
But like I said. I wasn’t dissin’ on Vazquez.
wjones
September 25th, 2009
11:53 am
“It’s no less of a stat in terms of being meaningful, than say the “quality start” stat, which is giving credit to the pitcher for being worse than league average (don’t get me started on that!).
Well, the worst quality start is a 4.50 ERA. But the average ERA in quality starts from 1984 to 1991 was 1.91 (according this study: http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/qstart.htm).”
Thank you, Shaun. That has always driven me CRAZY how so many people talk about the quality start, and say “Well, only 6 innings and three runs allowed is a 4.50 ERA, and that’s not quality”, as if every pitcher did the minimum. That’s like saying about a hitter on a 30-game hitting streak, “Well, that’s only 30 for 120, which is a .250 batting average, which is nothing to get excited about.” While theoretically one could get exactly one hit for 30 straight games and bat .250, and while theoretically one could pitch exactly 6 innings in 10 starts, give up exactly 3 runs in each, and have 10 quality starts, the odds are much greater that the hitter will bat well in excess of .300 during the streak, and the pitcher will have a composite ERA of under 3.00 in those quality starts.
Lew
September 25th, 2009
11:54 am
Glad I kind of agree with Shaun on this particular subject, because it has the looks of being another four day to a week argument. Please, no one suggest that Ryan Howard deserves the MVP. Please, I beg of you..
brian
September 25th, 2009
11:56 am
Snead had a terrible game but he should recover and be a quality college QB with pro potential. Heisman winner? No. Possible first round draft pick 2010 or 2011? Yes
I saw him play last year at Wake Forest and he was very impressive with his arms and his legs. Definite potential there. I bet most schools wish they had the “tough” decision Texas had – Colt McCoy or Jevean Snead
N8 (is it 2011 yet?)
September 25th, 2009
11:56 am
I won’t argue you quality start stats Shaun. I’m sure they are correct. My beef is that 3 runs over 6 innings is considered a qualtiy start in the first place. It shouldn’t be, imo. Either make it 7 innings, or make t 2 runs. A 3.85 ERA (3 runs in 7 IP) or a 3.33 ERA (2 runs in 6 IP), seems more reasonable to me when calculating a “quality” start.
I’m certain as a stat guy, you’re not going to argue that point. I just can’t agree that below average = quality. My standards as a baseball fan are higher than that.
If the league average for ERA was over 5.00, then I could live with it. But it’s not, so I won’t. LOL
sportsmandh
September 25th, 2009
11:58 am
DOB or anyone else. What is the rule on a one game playoff? Who gets the home field? Is it a coin toss, based on head to head record, what?
My 2 cents on the current situation.
First, we know all the Braves can control is winning their own games. With that said, I expect them to stay hot and play well the final 10 games. But we all know 10-0 is very unlikely. I think 8-2 is about the best you could hope for. 8-2 gives the Braves 90 wins.
I’m gonna say it’s very possible to beat the Marlins 2 of 3 at home, and go 6-1 against the Nationals if we stay hot. The pitching matchups are favorable, and we miss Josh Johnson in the Marlins series b/c he’s pitching Sunday night. Also, I hope there are some really good crowds for that Marlins series.
If we do win the series against the Marlins, then that means they won’t be a factor if we do go 8-2, So, the next question is what about the Rockies and Giants.
First and easiest, the Giants would have to go 8-1 in their final 9 to get 90 wins. That is not going to happen, they can’t score enough runs to win 8 out of 9, I don’t care who they’re playing.
So, as has already been the case, the main thing is what the Rockies do. They have nine tough games to go, STL, LA, & MIL. If they win all three series and go 6-3, we are toast. It is unlikely they will win all 3 of those series. If they go 5-4, they would beat us by one game. If they go 4-5, we have a one game playoff on our hands. IT is NOT that unrealistic that they go 4-5 in that stretch against those teams.
Bottom line in all that, the Braves have to go 8-2 to even have a shot. If they go 8-2, and the Rockies go 4-5 we have a one game playoff on our hands. That’s not that unlikely.
Whatever happens, I’m glad this year has been a lot better than last year, and I think it’s a great step in the right direction.
Go Braves!
Shaun
September 25th, 2009
12:00 pm
N8, Pitchers’ ERA in quality starts in 2005 was 2.04. In non-quality starts: 7.70
John Lowe, the inventor of the quality start statistic: “I am interested that folks would take the minimum qualification (6 IP, 3 ER) and project it as an average (ERA). It’s like saying a pitcher can get a win when he allows six runs in six innings. That’s a 9.00 ERA. Under this logic, someone could say, ‘What kind of a stat is wins? You can have an ERA of 9.00 and get them.’”
abwright
September 25th, 2009
12:02 pm
Lew, 11:54 am … “Please, no one suggest that Ryan Howard deserves the MVP. Please, I beg of you..”
EL: Ryan Freel deserves the MVP because he flat out puts his body into the game, every game. Even when he’s on the DL because he puts his body into the game, every game.
JC: He said Ryan Howard, not Ryan Freel.
EL: Ryan Howard? Oh, … Never Mind!
Vinings Jim
September 25th, 2009
12:04 pm
RHR – it would have been a crime shame if you hadn’t pointed that out – I somehow overlooked it going through 5 pages of bloggage this morning. Thanks!
ncscoots
September 25th, 2009
12:06 pm
I’m pretty sure Freel’s GRIT+ is not as good as we might think, LOL. Relative to league average and David Eckstein, of course.
Somebody check his GORP, too.
rammerjammer
September 25th, 2009
12:07 pm
Jurrjens, Schafer and Medlen for Braun. I’ll hang up and listen.
Thrillhouse44
September 25th, 2009
12:09 pm
Vinings Jim, are you really a Billy & Mary fan or were you just joking the other day?
Danga
September 25th, 2009
12:10 pm
if you think the Braves can compete with some of the same guys they have this year, then you trully are dreaming. -Tell It Like It Is
So you think they way the Braves improve is not to pursue proven commodities in free agency and pay the guys we already have under contract more money? Something doesn’t add up here.
Thrillhouse44
September 25th, 2009
12:10 pm
I hope you want to look at park adjusted GORP.
Rock On......
September 25th, 2009
12:12 pm
N8…The Rule of 64 my man. I don’t think any pitcher wants to see his record if his team scores 3 runs or fewer these days. Maybe Koufax back in the day or phenoms of his ilk like Nolan Ryan and perhaps a Maddux but Hudson, no way.
By the way the Braves have managed to lose 16 times this year when scoring 4 or more runs. In addition, they have been shutout 12 times and scored only 1 run 13 times so to date about 1 in every 6 starts the pitcher is getting 1 run or less of support. Gonna be some hard luck pitchers no matter what in that scenario. Just ask JJ and Javy. And to think we still have a legit shot at the WC is incredible.
Jake W.
September 25th, 2009
12:12 pm
“Find another tree to bark up, but if you want to play the “how good Vazquez has been” game, we’ll find out after tonight how much of an Ace he is. We’re 3.5 games back of the wild card. “-N8
Don’t give me this crap. We don’t have to wait till after tonight to see how much of an “ace” he’s been for us. He’s shown us all season. Just because he like seemingly all our pitchers gave up homers to Howard in that one game against the phils here in Atlanta on a rain delayed night he is not an “ace” or “clutch”. Then you bring up the start in Miami next. Who during that Florida series actually gave us what we wanted, KK? Hudson’s 1st so not expecting greatness and Hanson didn’t make it pass the 5th. Is he showing at a young age that he folds under the pressure? I mean he just gave up 4 runs to the phillies too. I wasn’t aware giving up 4 runs to the best offense in the league once this year makes you a pitcher who can’t perform with pressure on you. Sorry Javy can’t be perfect all season long but none of our starters have been. What would be nice though is if our offense realized that four runs to any team is really not that much. You can still win a game giving up 4 runs. But I guess he has to pitch a shutout tonight to show you that he can pitch under the pressure. I mean of course he’s got to prove the great Ozzie Guillen wrong because everything that Ozzie says is as good as gold.
jim
September 25th, 2009
12:13 pm
Lew,
Is there a double standard when Escobar gets benched for not running hard on an easy grounder to 2B, but Anderson goes into his HR trot on a ball that hits off the top of the wall and results in a single and does not get benched? Escobar has some atitude issues, especially with his umpiring at the plate and his reactions to high and tight pitches, but is he being singled out for his missteps more than others?
F. Wren
September 25th, 2009
12:14 pm
Glad to see the Braves continue to surge and Colorado’s loss last night was huge as the Braves gained a full game in the loss column. RockGum
You want to tell me how you could have “gained” anything less than a game in the loss column? It’s a Crime Shame Your And Idiot
RHR
September 25th, 2009
12:15 pm
Caption this: http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk94/bravesjohn155/9%2020%2009%20vs%20Phillies%20RH/GonzoSoriforTC.jpg
“Oh by the way, I killed 12 people last night.”
Soph
September 25th, 2009
12:16 pm
Oh, Cubbies. Yet, another Cubby Occurrence -
http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/news/story?id=4502934
N8 (is it 2011 yet?)
September 25th, 2009
12:16 pm
Shaun, totally agree with his comments. Which is why nobody takes wins seriously for a pitcher (similar to RBI for a hitter), or at least shouldn’t take them too seriously.
Like I said before, the ammount of wins that Maddux and Hudson (the only two guys I’ve ever seen the stat flashed for), isn’t what impressed me. It was the absence of many losses that got my attention. And that’s whether it’s 3 runs of support, or a 3-run lead. Either category is impressive.
I know we don’t have a standard to go on. But anytime a pitcher can have a record of 100+ wins and single digit losses is going to catch my attention.
But in the end it’s just stats. I never really needed the stats to tell me that Hudson, Maddux, Smoltz, Schilling, Glavine, Randy Johsnon, etc… were good pitchers. If you’ve seen them pitch, it wasn’t too hard to figure out.
Same with Vazquez this year. I could through out all kind of numbers in pressure games (or perceived pressure), and K totals, blah, blah blaaaaaah!! But if you’ve watched or listened to him pitch, there is more of a swagger to his pace and his flow than when he was with the Sox and certainly with the Yankees.
So past history, or future be damned. THIS YEAR Javier Vazquez has been a damn good pitcher. Sometimes us statheads overthink and forget to watch the games.
Rock On......
September 25th, 2009
12:17 pm
Rammerjammer….I assume you are joking? Hopefully?
RHR
September 25th, 2009
12:17 pm
Edit –
Caption this:
http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk94/bravesjohn155/9%2020%2009%20vs%20Phillies%20RH/GonzoSoriforTC.jpg
“Oh by the way, I killed 12 people last night.”
“Really? Thats a crime shame, bro.”
David O'Brien
September 25th, 2009
12:19 pm
For you breakfast lovers who might attend a game (or anything else) in D.C., I just ate some outstanding waffles at a cool little place called Luna Diner & Grill near Dupont Circle, at 1301 Connecticut Ave NW. Almost as good as the ones at the Otesaga Hotel in Cooperstown….
Vinings Jim
September 25th, 2009
12:19 pm
Thrillhouse44 – who would even think to joke about being a William and Mary fan? I graduated from the College a few (okay, many) years ago.
Thrillhouse44
September 25th, 2009
12:23 pm
VJ – Ah, glad there’s another CAA fan here. Should make things interesting when ya’ll line up against my Dukes.
Katie
September 25th, 2009
12:23 pm
Very funny, RHR. Is that pic from the group that was posted on Braves Love?
rammerjammer
September 25th, 2009
12:24 pm
Rock On…not joking. You think it’d be too much to give up, or that the Brewers wouldn’t listen?
Couch Tater
September 25th, 2009
12:24 pm
RHR,
I’m watching the weather. I’ve got tix, but rain is in the forecast for tommorrow’s game. That will be the deciding factor of whether I use public restrooms or my own.
Here ya’ go, Hillbilly. (PG-13)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hI4otTziYjk&feature=related
RHR
September 25th, 2009
12:24 pm
From the same girl, a few are posted on talkingchop that aren’t on braves love. Look on the right side of the home page.
RHR
September 25th, 2009
12:25 pm
Tater – my daughter wants us to go with these people we know but I’m thinking the same.
Vinings Jim
September 25th, 2009
12:25 pm
Thrillhouse44 – I always used to enjoy traveling up to Harrisonburg from Richmond every other year. I’m a little concerned about playing you guys for our Homecoming game this year. But, first I have to worry about Delaware tomorrow.
Katie
September 25th, 2009
12:26 pm
Thanks, RHR, I just read a comment about the other pics and was wondering if anyone had posted them somewhere
N8 (is it 2011 yet?)
September 25th, 2009
12:28 pm
Jake W, rather than argue with you, I’ll let my 12:16 post do it for me.
But facts is facts. Until Vazquez (who has been FANTASTIC this year), comes up big in a big game, he won’t be a big game pitcher. It’s that simple.
John Smoltz was a big game pitcher. Curt Schilling was a big game pitcher. Jack Morris was a big game pitcher.
In 4 career post-season starts Vazquez has given up 18 ER in 15.2 IP (10.34 ERA). Can’t escape those facts. Small sample size? Sure. Give me something else to go on and I will.
I like the guy. I’ve even stated recently (as much as I like Tim Hudson), that if Wren doesn’t improve our defense, Vazquez should be kept over Hudson, due to being a K pitcher and not having to rely on the defense as much.
I don’t expect him to be perfect. I expect people to not be so naive. Don’t call him an Ace until he proves he is one when it matters. I’m also fully aware of the fact that the other teams have good players being paid to play as well.
As a Braves fan, I always liked to side with the Braves pitchers being so damn good, that they could shut down the amazing Barry Bonds in 91 and 92 postseasons. But the rest of the free world considered Bonds a choker when it mattered. Who’s right? Who’s wrong? Probably nobody.
But the facts were there and could not be denied. Bonds sucked in the playoffs in 91-92, and Vazquez has never been a “big game” pitcher.
Bonds changed that in the 2002 playofs. Perhaps tonight is when Vazquez begins to change the perception of him.?
CB
September 25th, 2009
12:28 pm
Crime Shame- do you think anybody is really that stupid? Who said that? Oh, it was PL-now I understand.
Jim Hertel
September 25th, 2009
12:28 pm
I’d like to send up a trial balloon just to see what Braves’ fans might say: What about trading 3 year Lowe for 2 years of Milton Bradley? I know that Bradley is a royal pain the the keester, but BC has handled that type before. However, there not much you can do for a pitcher on the downslide. Would a sway like that give us the outfield bat and loosen up payroll?
Thrillhouse44
September 25th, 2009
12:29 pm
JMU is your homecoming? I’ll tip my cap to whoever scheduled that. I think it’s awesome when they schedule good games for homecoming instead of sure-things. Beware the Blue Hens!
Shaun
September 25th, 2009
12:29 pm
N8, see my post this morning about Jim Rice saying he wasn’t impressed with Zach Grienke, and Joe Posnanski’s response. It’s a hot topic on baseball blogs this morning. Here’s what I posted this morning:
Anyone see that Jim Rice isn’t impressed with Zach Grienke? Joe Posnanski had a great response:http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/09/24/what-our-eyes-see/
Here are the closing paragraphs from that response:
…beyond everything else, I would hope that maybe this would be yet another reminder that our baseball eyesight — no matter how much we love the game, no matter how much we have studied the game, no matter how well we PLAYED the game — is imperfect. Are there things people can see that are not reflected in the numbers? Of course. And it shouldn’t be any other way. Baseball is a game to be watched, to be enjoyed, to be argued about, and people’s observations can be wonderfully accurate
But, observations can also be WILDLY off, especially when you are looking at just a few innings, or just one game, or just one series. I had a discussion with Royals radio announcer Ryan Lefebvre about the defensive statistic Ultimate Zone Rating — he doesn’t like the stat (though he vaguely appreciates the effort) because he thinks defense is not quantifiable, and he cannot tolerate that the people who created the stat were not AT THE GAME. They were NOT WATCHING LIVE. Also Torii Hunter would finish TENTH. What kind of a stat is that? It ranked Torii Hunter TENTH. He simply cannot get over this.
I told him that, look, I understand having difficulties with defensive stats — I’m sure they have plenty of flaws and and absolutely they will get better over time. And maybe UZR was just way off on Torii Hunter. Maybe the stat is way off all the time. But maybe not. It’s important to say that just because a baseball stat does not tell you what you believe does not make it wrong. I might think B.J. Upton is a great young hitter, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s hitting .237. I might think Cole Hamels is fabulous, but his ERA is 4.11 and he’s only throwing quality starts 50% of the time this year. I wasn’t telling Ryan I thought he should believe in UZR so much as he should not write off the possibilities that a well-designed defensive stat could challenge our convictions and perhaps offer a deeper insight into the game. Even if it didn’t rank Torii Hunter exactly where our eyes told us.
After all if Jim Rice can mistake Zack Greinke for Roger Moret after six scoreless innings … well, it’s not a bad idea for anyone to at least look up a few stats. You know. Just to be sure.
Rock On......
September 25th, 2009
12:31 pm
rammerjammer…..you have one of your top 3 pitchers that is cheap, your future CF who is cheap, and one of your young relief/emergency starters who is cheap. You get one solid player in return? No thanks. Not this GM.
CB
September 25th, 2009
12:32 pm
VJ,plan on visiting Williamsburg and Busch Gardens in Oct. Any recommendations on fun places to see?
DAP
September 25th, 2009
12:33 pm
rammerjammer, i dont think its realistic to try and trade for braun. i would try to put a package together if they were shipping fielder.
Efrim
September 25th, 2009
12:34 pm
I expect people to not be so naive. Don’t call him an Ace until he proves he is one when it matters.
N8, with his performance this year, I think he has proven that he is much better than a mid rotation starter going forward. He always had the peripheral statistics that lead you to believe that he could become more. Clearly, I think the switch back to the NL and to a more fair park has helped. A more calm environment probably helped too. I will say that I’d like to see a second season with similar, or at least close to performance for me to be completely convinced though. I hope he is given that opportunity in ATL. We’ll see.
Wayne in Utah
September 25th, 2009
12:35 pm
Did I hear someone mention Ryan Freel???? The final missing piece in what could be a great Braves team for the final stretch!
Rock On......
September 25th, 2009
12:37 pm
CB….gotta take in Pierce’s BBQ on the service road paralleling I 64. Take the Lightfoot exit off 64 and follow the signs (carefully). One of the better que joints in the Southeast. It’s about 10 minutes from the heart of Williamsburg.
N8 (is it 2011 yet?)
September 25th, 2009
12:38 pm
For the record (just found these stats insane), before 2002, Bonds had played in 27 post-season games, going 19 for 97 (.195), adding in 17 BB (.310 OBP), with 1 HR and 6 RBI. He did however have 8 SB in those 27 games, LOL.
In 2002, in 17 games, he had 8 HR and 16 RBI, while going 16 for 45 (.355), adding in 27 BB (.581 OBP). However, he had 0 SB in the 2002 post-season.
I’m not sure about you guys, but I think he might have been on something?
N8 (is it 2011 yet?)
September 25th, 2009
12:41 pm
Shaun. I saw it the first time. Jim Rice is an idiot. I’ve listened to most of the Royals afternoon games this year. And have paid close attention to Greinke. Are you trying to tell me that my eyes failed me in determining that Greg Maddux was a good pitcher had I not ever looked at any stats?
CB
September 25th, 2009
12:41 pm
Thanks Rock On, will try.
Jake W.
September 25th, 2009
12:43 pm
“But facts is facts. Until Vazquez (who has been FANTASTIC this year), comes up big in a big game, he won’t be a big game pitcher. It’s that simple.”-N8
You are right, facts are facts, but the whole “big game” thing in and of itself is a hard “stat” to prove. Do they have a category that says “big game” some where? I’ll say it again that you bring up the fact that he gave up 4 runs to philly to show he folds under the pressure. How about our offense who other than 1 game in the past three philly series have disappeared on our pitchers the last 3 times we have had “big” series against the phillies. To me they are the ones who seem to fold under the pressure then. What about the last game against the phillies where we were once again bested by Howard the game before and he came the next day when we absolutely could not afford a loss and face a sweep this late in the season and he pitched 7 scoreless innings. Is that not a “big game”? As the season winds down every game becomes bigger than the last and Javy has won his last 3.
Tell It Like It Is
September 25th, 2009
12:44 pm
Lew,
If the Braves do not make JJ and Yunel offers like they did for Frenchy and McCann, then the race card is in play. Hopefully, that is not the case. You should be paid what you are worth. IT IS WHAT IT IS.
N8 (is it 2011 yet?)
September 25th, 2009
12:45 pm
I agree Efrim. I’d like to see him win a big game. It’s that simple. Tonight is a PRIME time for him to do so. It’s against the Nats for crying out loud. It’s not Pujols and the Cards. It’s not Arod and the Yanks. It’s the Nats, and the Braves NEED a win.
Like I said. He pitches good tonight, and he’ll have shown me a lot. If he doesn’t? I’ll have comfort in knowing I can play the gotcha game tomorrow.
For the umteenth time. I’m not dissing on Javier. He’s shown me a lot this year. Proven me wrong most of the time. Tonight’s a big test.
Is he up to the challenge? We know he can pitch 8 shutout innings against the Cardinals when we’re 8.5 games out of the wild card with 25 games to play (or whatever it was).
Can he shutdown the Nats, with a 3.5 game defecit and 10 games to play, with the Rockies leaving the door cracked for us? In about 10 hours we’ll know.
Tell It Like It Is
September 25th, 2009
12:46 pm
CB,
Make sure you visit Jamestown and Yorktown while in Williamsburg. Lots of interesting history.
Shaun
September 25th, 2009
12:47 pm
N8, you seem to be so willing to discard the fact that you are judging Vazquez on a small sample, which you admit to doing. We do have something else to go on: His entire career. Not saying he’s an ace because he’s never been a great pitcher. But he’s certainly better than that small sample.
You bring up Bonds. Was Bonds not a big game player in 1991 and 1992 or was it that he was facing great pitching in a small sample of games?
Maybe there is/was something within Bonds and Vazquez that made them struggle in big games. But it’s just as likely, if not more so, that it was simply something fluky that happened to them in a small sample versus quality opponents.
In September/October regular season games over the course of his career, Vazquez has the lowest ERA of any month.
RC
September 25th, 2009
12:48 pm
“Caption this: http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk94/bravesjohn155/9%2020%2009%20vs%20Phillies%20RH/GonzoSoriforTC.jpg” – RHR
“Hey, did your older brother get us some schnapps for the after prom party?”
David O'Brien
September 25th, 2009
12:48 pm
Chi-town fan: Do you really believe that tonight’s game, against a 100-loss Washington team in front of a crowd of 10,000 to 15,000 (less if it rains), is going to have the pressure feel of a “big game”?
What did Vazquez do against St. Louis a couple weeks ago in front of a sellout crowd? Took a shutout to the ninth inning and pitched a complete game. I dare say, that game had more of a “big-game” feeling that tonight’s will.
Rock On......
September 25th, 2009
12:50 pm
Tell It Like It Is……anyway we can pay Lowe about 4 million next year?
N8 (is it 2011 yet?)
September 25th, 2009
12:50 pm
Jake W., oh don’t get me going on our offense. I’m right there with you. They have been the TRUE choke artists when it has mattered most. Those two series against the Padres and Reds showed what they were made of.
As far as big games? For me it’s a tough one. I’m the guy that claims and preaches that games in April are just as big as the ones in September. Ultimately in the standings, that is true.
But when the spotlight shines the most, is late in the year. So the perception is that they are bigger games. When the whole world is watching (or should be).
So, to an extent me harping on “big games” is a little hypotcritical, I guess.
But in the past, when there appeared to be more pressure, more media coverage, more national spotlight, Vazquez has failed more often than not.
I’m merely posing the question. Don’t assume that I’m hoping he fails (so I can be correct), or that I expect him to fail based on his past.
I actually think he’s a different pitcher than he was years ago, and fully expect him to dominate tonight, based on recent performances. Dude seems focussed. But if he doesn’t he will have done NOTHING to eliminate the perception of him not being a “big game” pitcher. Which would be the case.
Or do you disagree?
Jake W.
September 25th, 2009
12:51 pm
“I agree Efrim. I’d like to see him win a big game. It’s that simple. Tonight is a PRIME time for him to do so. It’s against the Nats for crying out loud. It’s not Pujols and the Cards. It’s not Arod and the Yanks. It’s the Nats, and the Braves NEED a win.”-N8
You do realize the Nats have one of the best offenses in this league. There pitching on the other hand is horrible. Javy can show up all he wants if his offense does not take adavantage of one of the worse starting pitching staffs and bullpens in the league then we will probably lose. As the dodgers and most teams who go into Washington found out you got to score runs to beat this team and with their pitchers they usually give you ample opportunity.
RC
September 25th, 2009
12:51 pm
One note on Vazquez – A lot of his “big game pitcher” and “one bad inning” issues came from his manager’s tendecy to leave him in a game to get pounded when he obviously should have come out about 6 batters ago. Go look at the game logs from some of his White Sox games….I think Ozzie actually celebrated when Vazquez had a 4-run 7th inning.
Shaun
September 25th, 2009
12:54 pm
Are you trying to tell me that my eyes failed me in determining that Greg Maddux was a good pitcher had I not ever looked at any stats?
Not exactly. But I’m saying we all probably have fallen victim to what Jim Rice did. We may see a guy a relative handful of times and think “he’s the greatest player ever” or “he doesn’t impress me.”
As Posnanski said, there are things that show up when you watch the game that don’t show up in the stats. But also observations of a relative handful of games can cause us to have completely different opinions of a player than what he actually is.
Rock On......
September 25th, 2009
12:55 pm
Shaun….add in the fact that he was playing for Guillen and maybe he didn’t give a darn.
Salamander
September 25th, 2009
12:55 pm
Tell It Like It Is
JJ is a Boras client – do you think he would even consider an offer like McCann accepted for one of his clients who happens to be one of the top young pitchers in the NL? Don’t you think Wren would jump to lock up JJ to a club-friendly deal like McCann received?
Yunel is a drama-queen. He can be a great hitter and a great defender at SS, but he has issues that he needs to work out. I wouldn’t blame Wren for holding off on offering Yunel a longterm deal until it was clear he was a bit more mature.
Get out of here with the race card crap.
N8 (is it 2011 yet?)
September 25th, 2009
12:59 pm
I agree and disagree DOB. I put more stock into tonights game, even though it’s against a lesser opponent and likely in front of less people.
When the Vazquez was to play the Cards that night, the Braves had 20 games remaining and trailed by 7 games. Pro-rated, I guess it’s the same ratio right now. 10 games left, trailing by 3.5 games.
But time is of the essence. The Braves had slightly more margin for error that weekend, and were shortly removed from getting swept by the Reds, falling 8.5 games back. A time when most thought they had just stuck a fork in themselves.
I credit Vazquez for leading the charge back into this thing. But in the end, imo, tonights game is more do or die than that game was a couple of weeks back.
But yeah, he showed then that he could step up to the challenge in front of a big crowd against that offense, in that environment. That being said, he WAS staked to a 6-0 lead in the 3rd inning.
Again, I’m not ragging on the guy. I just think for momentum’s sake (I’m sure Shaun will chime in on momentum), tonight and tomorrow night’s games are HUGE, with the Rockies facing those same Cards who are throwing Carpenter and Wainwright at them.
There is a very real chance that before action starts on Sunday, we could be 1.5 games back. So, with that in mind. Tonight is HUGE.
Tell It Like It Is
September 25th, 2009
12:59 pm
Salamander,
You see it your way and I see it my way. JJ and Yunel are great baseball players who are under paid. I hope race or nationality is not a factor as you so strongly suggest. IT IS WHAT IT IS.
Wayne in Utah
September 25th, 2009
1:00 pm
You don’t have to study any game logs to understand that Ozzie was an idiot in the way he handled Javier Vazquez.
Tell it like it is:
So, if the Braves do not offer Escobar a long term contract, they are racists? Give me a break. He might get offered a long term deal, but with his on field antics and his seeming fragile nature, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them give him one more year to show what he is truly made of.
But then again, what would I know. I am definitely a racist, right?
Irrational National
September 25th, 2009
1:01 pm
We may be at 100 loses but our boys haven’t quit yet.
TnBrian(Vazquez ace 2010)
September 25th, 2009
1:02 pm
Chi-town fan, if I was going to worry about anything tonight, Vazquez isn’t one of them.
Wayne in Utah
September 25th, 2009
1:02 pm
Sandwich, bbq, mexican…….so many good choices…….
monty
September 25th, 2009
1:03 pm
I haven’t ever seen Jack Wilson play outside of the games he played against us with the Pirates, and I don’t know what the stats say but that guy can pick it with the best of them. Now I’ll go and see what the stats say and see if my eyes were deceiving me!
rammerjammer
September 25th, 2009
1:05 pm
Rock On…
Absolutely agree with you on the “cheap” statements, but I’m thinking Brewers will need an incentive to move a guy I believe is the missing piece of our puzzle for years to come.
Jurrjens is under control for awhile longer, but his agent is Boras and that means free agency at first opportunity. Schafer…maybe I’m in the minority…but his ceiling looks to be 15/60, .280 with good defense and 10-15 SB. A complementary player, of which we have many. Medlen is in there to sweeten the deal, but if they asked for Reyes instead, that’d be fine, too.
My opinion is that Braun is way more than a “solid starter.” Mid-20’s, averaging 30-100, RH-hitter, signed through 2015 at reasonable terms. Also wants to win, badly. A gamer.
DAP…I would stay far away from Prince Fielder. Which is not easy to do with that gut.
N8 (is it 2011 yet?)
September 25th, 2009
1:06 pm
Jake W., yes I realize that the Nats can hit. I also realize that they have already lost 100 games. If we are the playoff contender that we think we are, we will not only handle them, but abuse them in the process. Our Ace should lead us to victory.
Also, you realize that if Javier gives up 3 runs or less and pitches 6 or 7 strong innings, and the offense gets shutdown, that I won’t rag on Vazquez for that, right?
But if we score 3 or 4 runs and he can’t hold them below that, I can’t promise anything. LOL
Jake W.
September 25th, 2009
1:07 pm
“Chi-town fan, if I was going to worry about anything tonight, Vazquez isn’t one of them.”-TnBrian
Couldn’t agree more. For me most nights its will our offense score enough runs tonight to support our starting pitchers, any of them. Not to mention if I was a Sox fan I would be more worried about why we are 9.5 games back in one of the weaker divisions in the league….
Wayne in Utah
September 25th, 2009
1:08 pm
Tell it like it is
Serious question: How can Jurrjens and Escobar be underpaid? Are the worth more than they are paid? YES. Are they underpaid by baseball’s current standards and rules? NO.
The players union agreed to the current set up. You can’t really say that if they are getting the standard salary, that the Braves are underpaying them can you?
I don’t think a team is obligated to pay a player any more than they are required to pay them. If they want to throw in a small raise, then that is their call.
Same as saying that you can’t really blame a player for getting all he can when he is in the ARB years or FA years either.
Just sayin’