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Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
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© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
2,373 comments Add your comment
David O'Brien
September 24th, 2009
3:36 pm
GamecockBrave: You can send it to me at the office.
David O’Brien
AJC (but spell it out)
(6th floor)
72 Marietta St. N.W.
Atlanta 30303
Roman Gal
September 24th, 2009
3:38 pm
For GA, no, don’t even think about offering him arb.
I wonder if he would accept it. I mean, it seems like he likes it here, but I wonder if he wants to go back to the AL so he can DH or what…
Daslied
September 24th, 2009
3:38 pm
RC, I haven’t looked at the stats, but I wonder if that 200k increase has a lot to do with the Royals being good (and in 1st place for a bit) through mid-May?
RHR
September 24th, 2009
3:39 pm
RG – I don’t know but i can’t wait until the post surgery drugs kick in and he starts getting misty eyed about Chipper.
Just messin with ya, Rob. Hope everything goes well.
Efrim
September 24th, 2009
3:39 pm
Y’all know the Phillies will try to snatch up Gonzo or MFIKY. When they’re on, they’re very, very good. Sure don’t want to face them in the division. Maybe they’ll go to …. KC or somewhere.
RHR, Phillies are going to have some payroll issues. Lots of raises on that team. And not too much, other than Brett Myers, coming off the books. Not sure where either player might go, but I’d expect the interest for both to be very, very high. Which is why I don’t put the odds in our favor of signing either.
RC
September 24th, 2009
3:40 pm
Daslied,
That’s a definite possibility. I also think it could be due to Grenkie’s starts drawing a lot of fans, simply because of how impressive he’s been this year.
You all are Cox apologists
September 24th, 2009
3:40 pm
njbraves,
You’re primarily responsible for some of the dumbest things I’ve ever read regarding the Braves. You’re a clown, right?
Efrim
September 24th, 2009
3:40 pm
I wonder if he would accept it. I mean, it seems like he likes it here, but I wonder if he wants to go back to the AL so he can DH or what…
RomanGal, I think he’d jump all over that one year offer.
P. W. Hjort
September 24th, 2009
3:41 pm
IIRC, you can cut him during ST for an 80%(ish) savings, but don’t hold me to it
That’s correct, not sure about the savings though.
Roman Gal
September 24th, 2009
3:41 pm
and I would say Heyward is not going to be in AAA at the start.
That’s certainly debatable. I can’t say I’d be disappointed either way. If he’s in ATL, we’ll get to see him more right away. If he starts in Gwinnett, we’ll get to see him for the next 7 years.
Pinstriped Playa
September 24th, 2009
3:44 pm
If he starts in Gwinnett, we’ll get to see him for the next 7 years.
after that he’ll be playin for dem Yanks in the Bronx.
Daslied
September 24th, 2009
3:44 pm
My newest worry involves KJ and Conor Jackson. Both are non-tender candidates, and both play a position of need for the opposite team. Similar salaries and service time. I don’t think it will happen, but it does sort of make sense as a cheap move on both sides. Jackson was decent before last year, but then he got the swine flu or something.
Roman Gal
September 24th, 2009
3:45 pm
Efrim-
You’re probably right. He’s grown on me a little bit, but I don’t want to suffer through seeing him in left field next year. So I guess unless he explicitly says he won’t accept it, I wouldn’t offer him arbitration.
Efrim
September 24th, 2009
3:47 pm
I’m not sure Jackson would supply the power needed for the position. But if Adam is sent off, he’d be a decent low cost signing. Now if Kelly is non tendered, Arizona would make a ton of sense for him. Great hitters park, they need a second baseman. Good call, Daslied.
Roman Gal
September 24th, 2009
3:47 pm
Both are non-tender candidates
Why do you think Conner Jackson is a non-tender candidate?
braves4ever
September 24th, 2009
3:50 pm
So true about Heyward 6 years here or 7 there and here, I am all for him being up at the bigs because : If he is not we have to go out and spend 8-10 million a year to get a really good -speedy-hr hitter-passionate player to fill in till he is here. Wren is not going to spend that kinda money when the dude that is tuning up this fall has all those qualities. Now he could fall flat this fall and that would change the winter,but I don’t see him doing that. What will everyone say after he makes big news down there? The madness for spring to get here will be unreal.
Daslied
September 24th, 2009
3:51 pm
RG, here’s one link, but I’ve seen this mentioned a few times:
http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/2009/08/27/20090827spt-dbnotes.html
Roman Gal
September 24th, 2009
3:52 pm
Ok. I just looked up Conor’s stats…
Not good. But he did have Vally Fever and has only played in like 30 games. Then again, he’ll be 28 next year.
Efrim
September 24th, 2009
3:53 pm
Appalachian League Top 20 prospects tomorrow. I’m sure we’ll see plenty Danville Braves in there.
TnBrian(Vazquez ace 2010)
September 24th, 2009
3:53 pm
If they can resign Hudson and keep Vazquez then more power to them. Not crazy about either Soriano or Gonzo, but it’d be nice to keep one of them around. The LaRoche thing is a no brainer…sign him! After all of that is sorted out then they could turn their attention towards adding a RH power hitter of some kind for the OF. That would just be an added bonus, but could make a huge difference. Lots of work for Wren coming up.
Roman Gal
September 24th, 2009
3:54 pm
What will everyone say after he makes big news down there?
Well, considering people are already foaming at the mouth over him, I’m sure that 95% of people will want him to start the year in Atlanta.
keylargo
September 24th, 2009
3:55 pm
I posted this comment last night early in the game, but it is worth repeating with decisions needing to be made with the starting pitchers.
Tim Hudson is 105 – 2 when given a three run lead to work with. He is 106 – 2 after last night.
Roman Gal
September 24th, 2009
3:58 pm
Daslied-
I think that a Jackson for Johnson swap could be good for both teams, assuming Jackson is healthy.
P. W. Hjort
September 24th, 2009
4:00 pm
I think re-signing Soriano or Gonzalez is a luxury. The Braves can bring someone in for cheaper or go with internal options. That’s the first place you look to cut back financially.
jim
September 24th, 2009
4:00 pm
The Braves have 4 needs for next year: more power, more speed, more bullpen depth, and a more reliable closer. I still believe that if this offense were to return intact with Heyward (not necessarily the same batting order) it would be sufficient to contend for a playoff spot. Bullpen depth — at least 4 reliable pitchers plus the closer — and a “big-time” closer would give us a bigger push than the big-time bat (which could eventually be Heyward) and would be a lot cheaper to obtain. A base-stealing threat with a high OBP would be as valuable as a power hitter — The teams of the early 1990’s had Otis Nixon, Deion Sanders, and Ron Gant, and even the young Chipper and Andruw in later years as base stealing threats. Bobby does not run in the 2000’s because he does not have the players (except Furcal) who were consistent threats to steal, but he did run when he had those players.
The main problem for next year is Chipper. He will be penciled in at 3B and will draw 7 figures in salary. With a Chipper that plays 140+ games, drives in 100 runs and hits 25-30 HRs, this lineup is solid. If Chipper can only play 120 or so games and is hurting during some of them and produces the same numbers he did this year, then the need for a power bat is to compensate for his numbers, and the three-headed IF platoon is needed for replacing Chipper during those days he isn’t playing and having an infield replacement on the bench in case one is needed.
Daslied
September 24th, 2009
4:00 pm
RG – that’s part of my worry.
Since the money will probably be similar, I can see both teams preferring a trade to non-tendering them and getting nothing. Francoeur/Church Part II. (Electric Boogaloo.)
braves4ever
September 24th, 2009
4:00 pm
we have a few more weeks to brew this season and starting sometime in Oct its going to some kinda entertaining to watch this blog-o-meter go up and down with Heyward crowning. This winter will be fun for Wren and I know I am going to laugh and enjoy reading on here when its cold outside and the Falcons are not playing.
Nova Scotia Steve - Goodbye Bobby Cox
September 24th, 2009
4:01 pm
You know if we keep winning the remaining schedule heavily favors Atlanta.
Colorado has three games with St. Louis, Brewers and Dodgers left…
Atlanta has Washington, Florida Washington.
Milwaukee is no push over and Dodgers and Cards are both play-offs teams…like is this doable?
We’re going to have to keep this amazing run going!
Daslied
September 24th, 2009
4:03 pm
NS Steve – it’s certainly doable. But no matter what happens this will be the most exciting 10 games we’ve seen in years. Well, unless we get swept by the Nats.
keylargo
September 24th, 2009
4:03 pm
Roman Gal
Agree with your comment on Heyward. Another way to put it is would you rather have a 20 year old Heyward for April and May of 2010 or a full grown Heyward ALL of 2016?
Shaun
September 24th, 2009
4:04 pm
I posted this comment last night early in the game, but it is worth repeating with decisions needing to be made with the starting pitchers.
Tim Hudson is 105 – 2 when given a three run lead to work with. He is 106 – 2 after last night.
Is this exceptional? What have other starters done when given a 3-run lead to work with? And is that exactly 3 runs or 3 or more runs? I’d imagine most halfway decent pitchers have impressive records when given a 3-run lead and are even more impressive when that lead is more than 3 runs. So this is not necessarily telling us all that much.
Nova Scotia Steve - Goodbye Bobby Cox
September 24th, 2009
4:05 pm
Daslied: I’ll be cheering hard for the Padres tonight…I’ll tell you that much…
Beers and Col/SD?????
Doesn’t sound very exciting does it????
Efrim
September 24th, 2009
4:05 pm
I think re-signing Soriano or Gonzalez is a luxury. The Braves can bring someone in for cheaper or go with internal options. That’s the first place you look to cut back financially.
Agreed. They’ve been great, but injury history, age and salary demands are issues.
Roman Gal
September 24th, 2009
4:05 pm
Daslied-
I still think the Braves can get something good for KJ. He hasn’t been as bad as his numbers say he is, and I’m sure Wren knows that. I should just go ahead and tell y’all that my heart will hurt if Kelly isn’t on the team next year. But it seems unavoidable at this point.
wjones
September 24th, 2009
4:07 pm
“Roman Gal
Agree with your comment on Heyward. Another way to put it is would you rather have a 20 year old Heyward for April and May of 2010 or a full grown Heyward ALL of 2016?”
Yes.
Efrim
September 24th, 2009
4:07 pm
The Braves have 4 needs for next year: more power, more speed, more bullpen depth, and a more reliable closer.
They don’t really need ALL of that. Certainly more power, but they got decent enough bullpen work this year and speed wasn’t exactly the issue. They are going to win something like 87 or 88 games. A left fielder with some power is the real need. It’d be great if he was a plus defender too.
You all are Cox apologists
September 24th, 2009
4:08 pm
SEPTEMBER 25TH, 2009
THE CHOKING BEGINS!
I want the Braves to make the playoffs BUT I know Cox will do something to piss these games away with the Nationals. To make the playoffs, we need at least an 8-2 record.
NOW,
Considering the Braves’ multitude of post-season failures, do any of you REALLY think the Braves will go 8-2? I don’t think so.
My prediction: Braves go 3-7 in their remaining 10, by losing 2 of 3 this weekend to the Nationals, getting swept by Florida, and losing 2 of three the final weekend.
I have GROWN TO EXPECT THIS, primarily because of Boobie Cox.
Daslied
September 24th, 2009
4:10 pm
RG – I definitely want Kelly to stay. I think he’s just had a bad year. But, like you, I think that ship might have sailed.
keylargo
September 24th, 2009
4:11 pm
Tim Hudson is 105 – 2 when given a three run lead to work with. He is 106 – 2 after last night.
Is this exceptional? What have other starters done when given a 3-run lead to work with? And is that exactly 3 runs or 3 or more runs? I’d imagine most halfway decent pitchers have impressive records when given a 3-run lead and are even more impressive when that lead is more than 3 runs. So this is not necessarily telling us all that much.Shaun
You know Shaun if you disagree that stat is impressive, why don’t you list those pitchers who’ve done better.
jim
September 24th, 2009
4:11 pm
sometimes you can strike gold on finding a cheap closer (Heath Bell for instance), but the lack of a dominant closer in too many years and the lack of bench and bullpen depth have been the biggest reasons why the Braves have only won 1 WS during the last 20 years. I don’t think going cheap for a closer and relying on someone internally is a very good option.
Shaun
September 24th, 2009
4:12 pm
At Dugout Central, we were asked which player not named Pujols would you pick to build a lineup around. My choice was Heyward. Initially I thought Upton. But then I thought, “if Upton why not Heyward, who has better minor league numbers than Upton had and is younger.” Here was more of my reasoning:
If we’re holding a draft in which every player in pro baseball is eligible, assuming all the contract rules are at least somewhat similar to real baseball, I’m taking Atlanta Braves prospect Jason Heyward with the first pick overall.
Heyward turned 20 on August 9th and has already reached Triple-A. He’s yet to struggle at any level: .318/.391/.508 in 1,003 minor league plate appearances mostly as a teenager. He’s walked 105 times in three minor league seasons and has struck out 138 times. He’s stolen 26 bases and has only been caught 5 times. To put that into some context, Justin Upton posted a .288/.373/.481 line in 1,034 minor league plate appearances, walking 116 times and striking out 204 times. This season Upton is one of the best hitters in baseball, on a per game basis, at age 21. We must reasonably guess that Heyward will be at least that good, right?
Obviously you would get an immediate payoff from still-young guys like Hanley Ramirez, Joe Mauer, Justin Upton, Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, but you would likely get longer-term greatness from Heyward. With most of those guys you probably have another decade or so of great-to-very good production. With Heyward you likely have another 15 years or so.
RC
September 24th, 2009
4:12 pm
“The Braves have 4 needs for next year: more power, more speed, more bullpen depth, and a more reliable closer.”
See, I actually don’t think the CURRENT team needs more power. However, that means you a)need to resign LaRoche and b)need a bat to replace Anderson and give you AT LEAST what he’s given you in power terms. I think bullpen depth is the most important thing, ESPECIALLY as much as Moylan has worked this year. I am really, really worried that those innings are going to end up taking their toll in 2010.
Also, can someone teach me to use italics?
Ronald Millsaps
September 24th, 2009
4:12 pm
I have grown to hate the Rockies and Giants. The former gets on my nerves with its erratic nature, and the latter gets on my nerves by having a record better than its offensive execution would imply, and I hate how the Rockies have that gay, annoying music during ninth-inning save situations and all the accompanying applause.
Atlanta needs to make up four games and indeed can do so. We actually have an army, in a sense, going against another army. Our side consists of ourselves, the Padres, the Dodgers, and the Mets going up against the Rockies, the Giants, and the Phillies. We also have the Marlins as an enemy, though if they stay behind us and sweep the Phillies in their upcoming series, the division itself wouldn’t be out of the question.
Atlanta’s showing great focus and attention right now. Gotta keep it up.
Shaun
September 24th, 2009
4:15 pm
You know Shaun if you disagree that stat is impressive, why don’t you list those pitchers who’ve done better.
keylargo,well I’d have to do some digging. I’m not sure if I disagree. I’m agnostic at this point. I’m just saying I suspect most if not all decent pitchers have impressive records when they have a 3-run lead or a 3-runs-or-more lead. And I’m not the one claiming is is impressive, so the burden of proof is not really on me.
CB
September 24th, 2009
4:15 pm
I would not have as much trouble losing Gonzo and Soriano if it meant being able to keep Hudson and Vazquez. I trust that Wren will be able to make wise decisions on making the best team. I wish with the pitching excess we were able to trade Lowe, but I know how unlikely that is.
Efrim
September 24th, 2009
4:20 pm
Shaun, you talking about building a franchise around? Like moving forward from this day on, you’d take Jason Heyward over all other players in the sport not named Albert Pujols. That correct? Not knocking the selection, just trying to figure out if those were the parameters of the discussion.
ncscoots
September 24th, 2009
4:24 pm
And I’m not the one claiming is is impressive, so the burden of proof is not really on me.
You are disputing a claim made by someone with what seems to be empirical evidence to substantiate it, you dispute the claim, and have no burden of proof? In other words, your mere opinion carries enough weight that you need not buttress it with facts? Uh-huh.
Shaun
September 24th, 2009
4:24 pm
Efrim, that’s correct. Also, I’m also assuming either a) you’d have to have the players at their current contract, or b) you’d have to sign them to a contract at their current market value. Basically I’m assuming it’s some absurd expansion draft where every player in pro ball is available.
Shaun
September 24th, 2009
4:29 pm
You are disputing a claim made by someone with what seems to be empirical evidence to substantiate it, you dispute the claim, and have no burden of proof? In other words, your mere opinion carries enough weight that you need not buttress it with facts? Uh-huh.
ncscoots, first of all where did I dispute the claim. I simply said I’m not sure Hudson’s record in that situation is exceptionally impressive. Maybe it is. We certainly can’t know without comparing it to other pitchers.
Also what evidence did the person making the claim provide that Hudson’s record was indeed impressive when given a 3-run or 3-runs-or-more lead? All I’m saying is that it seems like most halfway decent pitchers would have impressive records in that situation. Maybe that’s not the case. But all I’m saying is just looking at Hudson’s record doesn’t tell us whether it is impressive.
MattyRoss
September 24th, 2009
4:32 pm
Here’s to the Fathers reducing our magic number to 14 tonight!
Efrim
September 24th, 2009
4:35 pm
Shaun, that’s an interesting discussion. Heyward would certainly be up there, for sure. Longoria would peak my interest, especially with such a ridiculously club-friendly contract.
Efrim
September 24th, 2009
4:37 pm
Shaun, that’s an interesting discussion. Heyward is a good choice. I’d probably go with Longoria, since his conract is so club-friendly. And of course, he is young….and very good.
keylargo
September 24th, 2009
4:38 pm
Thank you ncscoots. I couldn’t have said it that well myself.
Shaun – I am saying that a pitcher who gets a three run (or more) lead and wins 98+% of the time is well, something special. Figure if he was given a three run lead every start for three years (32 starts a year), he would lose two games in three years and win his first ten the fourth year.
106 – 2.
CB
September 24th, 2009
4:44 pm
keylargo, sounds pretty darn good to me,too. It also might reflect on the teams he played on in Oakland with the Bash Brothers,but still some great numbers.
Shaun
September 24th, 2009
4:49 pm
Shaun – I am saying that a pitcher who gets a three run (or more) lead and wins 98+% of the time is well, something special. Figure if he was given a three run lead every start for three years (32 starts a year), he would lose two games in three years and win his first ten the fourth year.
Is that record impressive relative to what other pitchers have done when given a 3-runs-or-more lead? Forget about burden of proof and all that. Please just answer that question, if you don’t mind. Because my guess is that most decent pitchers have records that are similar in games where they are given a 3-runs-or-more lead. Maybe I’m wrong. But the bigger a lead a team gives to any pitcher, I’m guessing the better chance he has of winning. So it would seem to follow that most halfway decent pitchers given a 3-runs-or-more lead are going to post much more impressive records than a typical win-loss record.
That record is impressive compared to a record in all games regardless of what kind of lead a pitcher is given, of course. But it’s really not saying much if every pitcher given a 3-runs-or-more lead is equally impressive, which I suspect they are. Maybe you can tell us where you found this stat so I can look up how Hudson’s record compares to other pitcher. That would be a lot of help. Thanks.
Bay Area Steve
September 24th, 2009
4:56 pm
I say this with all sincerity:
Shaun, it’s great to see you back, and that you haven’t changed.
Bill in VA
September 24th, 2009
5:02 pm
DG: Good post at 11:28. My feelings exactly. Tired of the game callers making reference to the “extra run” which would have scored, if…” It’s just noise talk!
Mixxo
September 24th, 2009
5:02 pm
Gonzo = 7 blown saves this year!
Suck on that!
jeffrey d
September 24th, 2009
5:07 pm
Gonzo’s also got a .213 BAA and 11 K/9. I’d still put him in.
glord1
September 24th, 2009
5:08 pm
Shaun – I am excited to tell you that you and I have finally found common ground. Not much on Bobby Cox but I agree with you on Heyward.
People always over project and over value young prospects. Even Major league GMs and Development Directors. That said Heyward is truely special. I believe he is a true “cant miss” player.
I dont know how he will do at 20 years old but within the next couple of years he is going to be one of the best players in the game.
Shaun
September 24th, 2009
5:09 pm
Please someone help me understand. Seriously. If a decent major league pitcher is given a lead of 3-runs-or-more, how would he NOT post a record drastically more impressive than a typical win-loss record? So the question I have with regard to Hudson is is his record when given such a lead more impressive than other pitchers in similar situations?
N8 (is it 2011 yet?)
September 24th, 2009
5:09 pm
“Shaun, it’s great to see you back, and that you haven’t changed.” Bay Area Steve
I never left, and I too have not changed.
Bay Area Steve
September 24th, 2009
5:11 pm
Very true, N8.
You were in top-form last night. That may have been the first time since the blog switched to WordPress, that I was happy with the change. You posted so much (good stuff, of course) that I was worried I would get carpal-tunnel.
Shaun
September 24th, 2009
5:13 pm
The Nationals are 26-15 when scoring 6 runs or more. But is that impressive? Well, it’s the worst record in baseball when scoring 6 runs or more. It’s impressive relative to a typical win-loss record but it’s not really impressive relative to other teams. This is what I’m trying to get at with Tim Hudson and records in games where teams give the pitcher a 3-runs-or-more lead.
N8 (is it 2011 yet?)
September 24th, 2009
5:14 pm
Thanks steve. Yeah, you’re right. I would have locked up the “old” blog, about half way through my monologue.
glord1
September 24th, 2009
5:15 pm
keylargo
September 24th, 2009
4:38 pm
Thank you ncscoots. I couldn’t have said it that well myself.
Shaun – I am saying that a pitcher who gets a three run (or more) lead and wins 98+% of the time is well, something special. Figure if he was given a three run lead every start for three years (32 starts a year), he would lose two games in three years and win his first ten the fourth year.
106 – 2.
Keylargo – I would be impressed with a pitcher that 106-2 with a 5 run lead. What that three run stat tells me is Tim can manage a game while on the mound and can make pitchers when he has to. He proved that last night but wiggling out of trouble with multiple times by making a great pitch.
It is amazing that the Braves have 6 pitchers that would be 1-3 starters on over half the teams in baseball.
RC
September 24th, 2009
5:16 pm
how do you bold and put things in italics in Wordpress?
N8 (is it 2011 yet?)
September 24th, 2009
5:16 pm
How about “3rd time’s the charm” on this attempted post?
If this posts twice (or three times), sorry. But it didn’t show up the first time.
Does anybody know where to look up the stats and “league average” when given a 3 run lead for pitchers (W-L record)??? These guys have been arguing their points for over an hour, yet nobody has looked the stat up.
I attempted, but can’t find it anywhere. I know that Maddux’s numbers when given 3 runs of run support (not a 3 run lead – THREE RUNS), was ridiculous when he was still with the Braves. Something like 135-4 or something like that. Don’t remember the number, just remember TBS posting it everytime he pitched and the Braves got their 3rd run of the game.
I know when Hudson became a Brave, they (TBS) did the same thing. So based on that, I’m going to assume it’s more impressive than average, because those are the only two guys I can remember TBS doing that with.
But sorry, can’t find a “list” to verify it.
keylargo
September 24th, 2009
5:17 pm
Shaun
First of all, I heard that stat about Hudson on the Mets broadcast last night and they certainly thought it was impressive. I guess it means that Hudson is VERY tough when given a multi – run cushion – that he does not implode, give up HR’s with men on base or allow extended rallies. To me it is impressive. To the Mets broadcasters, especially Ron Darling and Keith Hernandez, it was impressive.
I think anytime you do something that well for that long in MLB, you’re doing something special.
glord1
September 24th, 2009
5:19 pm
Shaun
September 24th, 2009
5:09 pm
Please someone help me understand. Seriously. If a decent major league pitcher is given a lead of 3-runs-or-more, how would he NOT post a record drastically more impressive than a typical win-loss record? So the question I have with regard to Hudson is is his record when given such a lead more impressive than other pitchers in similar situations?
A three run lead in the era that Hudson pitched is not a huge margin. I dont know where to pull that stat up but if someone did I bet his record in that instance would be one of the best in baseball
nolie
September 24th, 2009
5:19 pm
Why is it that so many of the morons on here say “Take it to the bank” or “bank on it” ? Are many of them simply ’stage names’?
ugaaccountant
September 24th, 2009
5:20 pm
Shaun is right. The other poster shouldn’t have left an obscure point of data without giving some comparisson data or the source where we could research our counter arguments. It’s not contributing to a discussion if the rest of us have no access to judge it’s validity and usefulness.
Sign me up for keeping all 6 sp’s, trade JoJo for middle relief, sign Adam Laroche, sign an average OF free agent in the 3-5 million range,and offer arbitration to Gonzalez and Soriano but hope they sign elsewhere.
That allows us to start the year knowing that all 5 starters are good to go, and then if we have had great health trade a SP at the trade deadline when teams are desperate. I do not want to sever ties with Vasquez or Hudson this offseason though, short of an amazing deal that brings in a cheap superstar.
By signing a slight upgrade in OF, we can cut both Church and Anderson and still promote Heyward by June.
Bench additions are plentiful in AAA, Canizares, Jones, Conrad, Schaefer, Blanco, Hernandez and even Sammons. The only position I wouldn’t feel comfortable calling in from AAA is for 3b. That’s why I don’t feel any huge need to add any depth players this year like we did last year with Anderson and Ross. And with all those guys ready for a promotion, I think it’s time to cut Norton since he helps none in the field.
N8 (is it 2011 yet?)
September 24th, 2009
5:20 pm
If my other post(s) – tried three times, show up, I apologize, so I’ll chime in with my condensed opinion.
I’m not sure if Hudson’s record in that situation is more impressive than others. I believe it to be the case based on one thing. When Maddux was a Brave TBS used to run a stat showing his record when his teams (Braves and Cubs before then), scored 3 runs for him. Not a 3 run lead, but just scoring 3 runs. It was along the same lines of Hudson’s 100 & something and single digit losses.
When Hudson became a Brave they did the same thing. The second the Braves scored their 3rd run, they’d pop that stat up.
I don’t remember them doing this for any other starters, not Glavine, Not Smoltz, not Avery, etc….
For this reason, and no other (and without stats or a link to back it up), I believe it to be impressive. How’s that? LOL
monty
September 24th, 2009
5:22 pm
Shaun
Naturally you would figure that any “decent” pitcher’s record is going to be signicantly better when given a 3-run lead. One will never know just what kind of a feat Hudson has obtained unless you have some type of comparison. My guess is that his winning % of 99% (or whatever it figures out to be)when given a 3 run lead is higher than most, how much higher? Who knows, thats a job for the stats nerds. My guess is that the best pitchers that have ever pitched are going to have records approaching Hudson’s, but you’ve got to admit his is darn near perfect!
ugaaccountant
September 24th, 2009
5:26 pm
They can’t show that stat for Vasquez or Jurrjens, because to the best of my knowledge the Braves have never scored 3 runs in one of their starts. Seriously, those 2 have been great, as has Hanson who got good run support and thus has a great record to go with it.
Amazing to think that with 3 aces and 3 other very good SP’s we are looking likely to miss the playoffs.
abwright
September 24th, 2009
5:26 pm
<em>words in italics.>/em<
<strong>words in bold.>/strong<
Hope that worked.
abwright
September 24th, 2009
5:27 pm
<em>words in italics.</em>
<strong>words in bold.</strong>
Got the closing brackets wrong on the earlier post.
monty
September 24th, 2009
5:28 pm
Heck, for some decent closers no 3- run lead is safe, not to the tune of what Hudson manages for 6-7 innings. In any given year a good closer is going to blow 2-3 games with a 3 run lead in the ninth.
McFann Ô
September 24th, 2009
5:33 pm
RC–
Here are some other tricks for Wordpress.
abwright–
Wow…you typed the closed brackets without having them disappear!
Congrats…
nolie
September 24th, 2009
5:33 pm
I agree (I think he’s average), but his bat plays too well there to just let him go. You’re talking about a potential 4-win player. (PWH)
the key word there is potential and I agree that he has it, but he hasn’t yet lived up to it. I think he’s history one way or another not because he wouldn’t be a useful player, but because of his coming salary. Get ready for it KJ lovers…he might be toast.
abwright
September 24th, 2009
5:34 pm
So, I don’t get this whole arbitration thing.
Garret Anderson is a free agent under a one year contract. I thought that the Braves had to negotiate a contract. Braves get a window in which they can negotiate before other teams can make offers. There is no arbitration for free agents. Am I wrong?
I thought that Adam LaRoche, M. Gonzalez, and R. Soriano were likewise free agents at the end of their contracts.
Kelly Johnson, on the other hand, is still under Braves control for one-two more years. However, they have to negotiate a contract, release him (in which case he becomes a free agent), or go to an arbitration hearing. Since KJ will get more in arbitration than the Braves are willing to pay him, they will either negotiate a contract (unlikely) or release him.
If the Braves offer a contract to their free agents and the contract is rejected, then the Braves get draft picks from the team that eventually signs them. If the Braves do not offer a contract, then they do not get draft picks. Is this right?
Efrim
September 24th, 2009
5:35 pm
Get ready for it KJ lovers…he might be toast.
I’m ready….and also upset about it. But I’ll understand it, when the decision is made.
jeffrey d
September 24th, 2009
5:37 pm
Get ready for it KJ lovers…he might be toast.
I’m ready for it. Not happy about it but I’m ready. I’d hate to see him break out with another team, but it doesn’t look like he’ll be around with the Braves next year.
abwright
September 24th, 2009
5:38 pm
McFann Ô, 5:33 pm … “Wow…you typed the closed brackets without having them disappear!
Congrats…”
If I did emoticons and if there were an emoticon with a “cheshire cat” grin, I would be using it now.
The “less than” and “greater than” symbols (which create the brackets) can be done by typing an ampersand followed by either lt (less than) or gt (greater than) followed by a semi-colon.
Johnny Schuerholz
September 24th, 2009
5:38 pm
Daslied…
Thanks for the pitch hitting numbers…
Bottom line…
.156 BA as a team…
Makes you wonder who would get the nod…if we make the post season…maybe use one of our pitchers?
BELIEVE…
McFann Ô
September 24th, 2009
5:40 pm
abwright if there were an emoticon with a “cheshire cat” grin, I would be using it now.
Oh, but there is!
Thanks for the tip!
N8 (is it 2011 yet?)
September 24th, 2009
5:43 pm
“It is amazing that the Braves have 6 pitchers that would be 1-3 starters on over half the teams in baseball.” glord1
I agree. I said this last night, and I mean it. With any offensive run support whatsoever, we have 5 (maybe 6 if KK would go enough innings often enough – like he had in recent games before being replaced by Hudson), that could win 20 games.
Even if Hudson or Vazquez is traded, with the remaining 5 guys, we have the best, deepest staff 1-5 in baseball going into next year.
All money aside, Derek Lowe might be the best 5th starter in baseball going into the season. I think this staff with the offense helping out, could rival the Braves 1998 rotation in production:
Maddux 18-9, 2.22 ERA
Glavine 20-6, 2.47 ERA
Neagle 16-11, 3.55 ERA
Millwood 17-8, 4.08 ERA
Smoltz 17-3, 2.90 ERA
Combined, they went 88-37, with an ERA of 2.97 in 1032.2 IP.
This year, (and I’m only going to count Hanson into the mix – not the guys we used before him), here are the numbers:
Vazquez 14-9, 2.91
JJJ 13-10, 2.70
Lowe 15-9, 4.55
KK 7-11, 3.92
Hanson 10-4, 2.85
Hudson 2-1, 3.56
The six of them have gone 65-44 with an ERA of 3.39 in 884 innings.
I think it’s safe to assume that KK and Hanson will combine for about 100 more innings next year, bringing that total about in line with that 98 staff, give or take a few. We might not end up with two guys with a sub- 2.50 ERA, but then again, we might.
Unfortunately, here is where the difference lies. That 98 team had 4 guys hit 30+ HR, and guys drive in 100+ runs (with Andruw having 90 RBI). Add to that, Klesko added 18 HR & 70 RBI, and the platoon of Tucker and Gerald Williams chimed in 23 HR and 90 RBI.
So, needless to say, this offense has to improve a LOT to get those win totals up for our rotation guys. That 98 team won 106 games. With a little offensive upgrade at a couple of positions, the 2010 team could easily win 92-96 games.
Just my two cents…..er…. two hundred and two cents, if length of post is factored in.
Moby Grape
September 24th, 2009
5:47 pm
Prado a solid defensive 2B is laughable. Hjort
LOL. this from the idiot who is too stupid to understand how the one defensive standard that he quotes is to be used.Still spewing your hate that nobody who has ever actually played the game believes. His numbers are pretty much average across the board on BBRef.You are the laughable one dudess. Stick to fantasy league ball , defense doesn’t count there so your ignorance won’t be exposed. What a joke
Mid Town Joe
September 24th, 2009
5:51 pm
Sporting friends
Please take a moment to read this story.
CB
September 24th, 2009
5:53 pm
This must be the anti N8. You actually sound positive!
Mid Town Joe
September 24th, 2009
5:53 pm
Here is his touchdown run.
Moby Grape
September 24th, 2009
5:53 pm
Expect WREN to go after the top dog in HOLLIDAY. especially since COX just announced his retirement.
RichBrave
Do you? I don’t think they will spend that kind of money and I don’t think he will be worth that kind of money here, but if they want to sped it I’ll watch him play.
Moby Grape
September 24th, 2009
5:58 pm
Escobar to third. Might work. He’s got a chance to develop into 20-25/90 power guy JeffR
I sort of doubt that. Look at the way he keeps his front shoulder down in his swing. He is plenty strong , but to hit 25 home runs he would almost certainly need to change his mechanics, and we have no idea how that would affect the rest of his hitting game.I’d prefer he stayed pretty much as he is.
CB
September 24th, 2009
6:01 pm
Lowe has been disappointing this season despite his record. There is a good chance that next season will be reflective of what we were expecting,Vazquez may fall off some from his career year so hopefully they will balance each other. You have to love what you see of Hanson and Jair so next year is looking good.
CB
September 24th, 2009
6:01 pm
Lowe has been disappointing this season despite his record. There is a good chance that next season will be reflective of what we were expecting,Vazquez may fall off some from his career year so hopefully they will balance each other. You have to love what you see of Hanson and Jair so next year is looking good.
monty
September 24th, 2009
6:04 pm
FW will have to sign either Gonzo or Soriano or find another cheaper viable closer somewhere else. Moylan should move to the set up role and fill-in closing when needed. Someone will be needed to take Moylans 7th inning position. Medlen? that Kimbrell guy? or a free agent? Acosta has to go, most talent for the least amount of results I’ve ever seen in baseball! Devasting stuff but always gives up runs.(seemingly)
Shawn G
September 24th, 2009
6:04 pm
“Roman Gal
Agree with your comment on Heyward. Another way to put it is would you rather have a 20 year old Heyward for April and May of 2010 or a full grown Heyward ALL of 2016?”
No shot of it mattering, so April. He will get a Longoria/McCann type deal before he can legally drink a beer. lol
TennesseePaul
September 24th, 2009
6:10 pm
Because my guess is that most decent pitchers have records that are similar in games where they are given a 3-runs-or-more lead.
This doesn’t really tell us much. What is decent? How was this standard for “decent” developed?
P. W. Hjort
September 24th, 2009
6:11 pm
Frank Wren isn’t stupid. He isn’t going to just release a potential 4-win player. If anything, he trades him.
IP
September 24th, 2009
6:12 pm
What about Lowe as an option for a closer instead of returning to the rotation. He was decent a while back. That way Soriano/Gonzalez or both could go.