It is going to be hard to find that power. I am just saying that if we do sign Figgins. He, Schafer, McLouth and Heyward can use their above average speed to force teams into mistakes. Watch how the Angels play. They drive you crazy with all their motion
**************
Rob from SC,
I agree but look at who the Braves manager is presently. Bobby Cox. He doesn’t want “speed” and doesn’t use “speed” like a Mike S. does with the Angels. Bobby Cox rather wait for the 3-run HR, except we don’t have many guys who hit many 3-run HR on a consistant basis right now.
Big innings don’t have to come with home runs. They can come by virtue of 6 singles. Or a few walks and a few singles. It’s tougher to score runs without the aid of instant offense because it usually takes 3 “events” (hit, walk, error, wild pitch, etc.) to score a run with a singles-hitting club, but I would argue big innings happen just as frequently for both types of clubs. I would say that OBP correlates more with big innings than HR, SB, or anything else.
It has everything to do with bunting! For example, with a runner on 1st and no outs, you expect to score about .9 runs. If you bunt successfully, you’ve got a runner at second and one out. Your run expectancy is now about .7 runs. Which odds do you want to take?
Do you dolts understand a darn thing about contracts? He’s only making $50 MIL from 2009 through 2012. This is what he has to do to satisfy that contract:
(1) 2800 plate appearances with a league average OPS (.750) or so with an average glove
(2) 2800 plate appearances with an .800 or so OPS if he is a -10 defender
(3) 2100 plate appearances with an .800 or so OPS if he is an average defender
(4) 2100 plate appearances with an .850 or so OPS if he is a -10 defender
You get what you paid for. The salary terms of his contract told you what the Braves and Chipper were expecting from 2009 through 2012. They factored in a reasonable expectation of decline into the salary terms.
If he meets any of those scenarios above, he has repaid the team on the field what they have paid him. PUHLEEZE study up on contracts and make yourself somewhat familiar with how teams, agents, and players are coming to the financial terms they come to before you speak about the terms of the contract.
It has everything to do with bunting! For example, with a runner on 1st and no outs, you expect to score about .9 runs. If you bunt successfully, you’ve got a runner at second and one out. Your run expectancy is now about .7 runs. Which odds do you want to take?
I’ll take the man in scoring position. And you said nothing about a man on second with one out…
Question is will he be willing to ride off into the sunset if he is not the everyday 3rd baseman? (Rock On)
He will continue to be the starting third bseman for a while and he has said that he detests DHing, and I doubt he will just walk away from 42 million dollars.Chipper might actually bounce back a bit next season.Age is part of this year obviously, but part is likely regression to the mean.Remember I said all winter and spring that he was due for an off year. He might be more productive if they limited him to 120-130 games tops. Anyway it is too early for them to be willing to give up on him, especially considering he is stll having one of the better hitting seasons on the team despite his tailoff
C’mon, dude. I can see arguing a specific player, because it’s very difficult to integrate offense, defense and baserunning, i.e. placing an appropriate value on each and effectively quantifying them, but in this case…the numbers are pretty clear. If you play for one run, that’s all you’ll probably get.
Ask Mike Sciosia and the other two managers if they did not have those numbers, would they still be competing for a division or a wild card? Esp. when two of the three are “small market” teams?
C’mon, fellas. Takes a man to admit when they’re wrong. . .
Why is Chipper not allowed to chew bubblegum in the dugout when he’s not playing?
Oh that’s easy. Because he sucks. Sucky people don’t get to do anything except sit around and look like they’re sorry about sucking. Personally I think he should hold up signs in the dugout, Manny style, except Chipper’s signs need to say “You’re right, Rob. I suck and I’m sorry” and “Yes MiaBravesFan, I should ride off into the sunset, thanks for the idea!” and “I really wanted to go 0-fer today, I’m so proud of myself!” … you know, stuff like that. He needs a dry erase board so that he can have a new message up every time the camera shows him.
PWH–don’t forget that playoff teams pay more per marginal win than non-contending clubs. For example, a club will pay more to get from 89 to 90 wins than to get from 72 to 75 wins. Also, for individual players, I’ve got it on (what I feel to be) fairly good authority that the WAR/pay scale increases on a curve as opposed to linearly, so you’ll pay more per win as a player becomes worth more wins.
I like UZR better than Plus/Minus when UZR confirms my theories about certain players. Of course, either one is perfectly acceptable if a particular rating can be used to wallop a fellow blogger upside the head for cheap points. That makes me look smart.
C’mon, dude. I can see arguing a specific player, because it’s very difficult to integrate offense, defense and baserunning, i.e. placing an appropriate value on each and effectively quantifying them, but in this case…the numbers are pretty clear. If you play for one run, that’s all you’ll probably get.
I think you’re mostly right. In general you’ll score more frequently but the possibility of scoring multiple runs in the inning is diminished to the point that your overall run expectancy decreases. However, it can be used effective situationally. Like, when 1 run is all you need. Or when the guy bunting can’t hit (pitcher). Research shows that with runners on 1st and 2nd with a pitcher up and nobody out it’s actually better to have your pitcher bunt in most cases (depending on the quality of the leadoff hitter and the pitcher’s hitting ability). So 1-run strategies shouldn’t be completely done away with. Just used less frequently. Like when McLouth gets on and Prado bunts him over in the 1st inning–that’s misuse. That annoys me to no end.
However, it can be used effective situationally. Like, when 1 run is all you need. Or when the guy bunting can’t hit (pitcher).
Oh yeah, absolutely. Not arguing that point at all. Like you said–early in games and with your good hitters–terrible strategy. Bunting is great when you need one run. Not when McLouth is on first with no one up and Prado batting in the 3rd inning.
Man on second, one out. It would theoretically take a 1 base hit to score the run in 2 chances. Man on first, no out. It would take 2 hits in 3 chances. You do the math. You also have to avoid hitting the ball on the ground in the later scenario, however with a man on second, a ground ball is productive (JJ)
seems like it should be that way doesn’t it? But it isn’t. Aman on second with one out vs aman on first with no outs acyually has been proven to cause less runs to score. It is a decent strategy when you absolutely need one run late in a game but not an efficient one to use throughout a game as the core of your offense.As far as SB is concerned, remember a few years ago the Mets stole 200 bases which is very unusual nowdays and the Braves stole 66 or so but still outscored them for the season. It’s true that these things can be effective in isolated instances, and the Braves doing them so poorly has hurt in some cases. But ever since the use of metal bats has overtaken amateur ball, allplayers have become less proficient at bunting in particular. It isn’t just the Braves who have trouble, but most teams in the MLB are not very good at them.
PWH–don’t forget that playoff teams pay more per marginal win than non-contending clubs. For example, a club will pay more to get from 89 to 90 wins than to get from 72 to 75 wins. Also, for individual players, I’ve got it on (what I feel to be) fairly good authority that the WAR/pay scale increases on a curve as opposed to linearly, so you’ll pay more per win as a player becomes worth more wins.
Yes, because a roster of 25 1-WAR players nets you 74 wins but it’s hardly worth $112 million. The roster spot is worth something too. That’s also why people sometimes over-value the effectiveness of a platoon. If you can put together Ryan Church and Matt Diaz and come up with Carlos Beltran, you haven’t come up with Carlos Beltran. You’ve come up with 2 halves of Carlos Beltran occupying 2 roster spaces as opposed to one. The whole is worth more than the sum of the parts.
Trading Chipper is like trading the Pope of Atlanta but it has to be done. Chipper would be a solid DH. He is good for 120-130 games at 3B or 162 as a DH. Boston?, New York? Texas? We better trade for a AA or AAA 3B who can hit .280/25/90. More than an adequate replacement. He can be gotten by trading Chipper, Lowe, or Vazquez.
Steve, I used to like UZR alot more than I have this season. I just don’t agree with alot of the numbers this season. One problem is that it ain’t even the real UZR. But this version of UZR that we are seeing on fangraphs is the one that is publicly available and accessible. Dewan’s may be better, but there are two problems with it. You have to pay for it, which most people won’t, and the website that it is on is so poorly constructed that it’s way too difficult to access the stat. It’s just too much of a darn hassle to go find.
I’m not convinced that any of them are better than the other. I’d much rather just have access to about 5 or 6 defensive metrics and just add them all together to come to a number that makes sense. Perhaps I’d weight some more than others based upon my own preference, or I’d just take the 6 of them and disregard the outliers at the two extremes – the one that says the guy is awesome and the one that says he sucks and just take the average of the other 4.
Most importantly though you gotta base it upon observation first. I think Yunel is a very good defender from what I’ve seen, but not great. So when I see Dewan rate him a +12 last season, and +9 this season, that makes sense to me. When I saw the other version of UZR rate him similarly last winter that made sense to me. When I saw this other fangraph version of UZR say he was just average last year and -3 this season, that just doesn’t make sense to me
Yes, because a roster of 25 1-WAR players nets you 74 wins but it’s hardly worth $112 million.
Yep. But keep in mind that those values are calculated from free agency, so 4.5 isn’t really what is paid per win–it’s just what is paid on the free agent market. Good post.
When your number three hitter just isn’t what he used to be and probably refuses to move down in the lineup so the SS can move to the three hole and your cleanup hitter is a beat-up catcher who is rarely rested and constantly has to clear the fog out of his goggles. . .
Then McClouth getting on base and what Prado does becomes a moot point.
In the interest of legitimate discussion, I think that UZR/150 and Plus/Minus are both useful. I think I’ve read that some people are trying to figure out a way to get the outliers in both systems to be a little closer in their measurements. Defense is the one area where scouts are damned accurate in their assessments of players, so tying the metrics, scouts’ reports, and any other measuring tools together would give any GM a highly accurate take on how a player fields at a particular position.
Of course, I don’t have the independent knowledge to be able to thoroughly praise or ridicule either of those metrics. I’m just reading stuff.
Dewan’s may be better, but there are two problems with it. You have to pay for it, which most people won’t, and the website that it is on is so poorly constructed that it’s way too difficult to access the stat. It’s just too much of a darn hassle to go find.
You’re speaking of two different systems. John Dewan’s +/- is different from UZR. The real version of UZR is publicly accessible on fangraphs. +/- is sort of accessible on fieldingbible.com. But the detailed numbers are available only to billjamesonline.net subscribers.
BH–my big beef with UZR is that it doesn’t account for positioning, at least in the version I read about. I realize that the math attempts to take out some of that (like the avg. SS catches .33 balls in zone x when a RHH is up and a runner is on 1B, etc.), but bad positioning can severely hurt one’s UZR and good positioning can artificially inflate it (I’m thinking of those 2 ground balls Chipper hit last night right over 2B where the SS had him played). Likewise, the talent around you can have a big effect. For example, if you’ve got Willie Mays in CF catching balls in the LF’s or RF’s zone, their UZR goes down…
Finally, there’s some subjectivity in the people grading out whether or not the ball is hit hard, medium, soft, etc. Can’t like that in an “objective” stat. I know they try to make it as uniform as possible, but problems exist.
But it is still a good approximation, because it does tell you how many plays a player made, regardless of positioning etc. There is value in that.
I will be a Braves fan for life but gave up on them after the first loss in this Reds series. Came home from being out all day and see that we got swept. I actually laughed.
On one hand we have some great talent this season and it sucks to lose but on the other I feel like this is what Wren needs to finally get rid of Bobby.
Chop Chop–thanks! I do enjoy hearing your input on those things. For the record, I always try to read as much as possible about a stat so I know the benefits/drawbacks of it, and know how it is calculated. Like you, I prefer scouts’ assessments to metrics and I think most front offices do too.
Braveheart,
Yes it is. It isn’t Dewan’s UZR, because Dewan isn’t directly responsible for the creation of UZR. Dewan’s brainchild is +/-. But as far as UZR goes, Fangraphs has the real deal. And I will agree with you, I prefer +/-.
Bottom line: Braves scored 4 runs against the Reds. A little bunting and stealing ain’t gunna hurt anyone (JJ)
whatever dude.In case you don’y know it, absolutely anything can happen in a short series in baseball. It has nothing to do with what might happen another one.
Re the difference between statophiles and statophobes:
Stuart Chase once said
“For someone who believes no proof is necessary.For someone who doesn’t believe no proof is possible”
I like +/- better as well…but I think the “perfect” defensive metric would use vectors to chart how far (and fast) the fielder moved and how fast and on what trajectory the ball moved. But then again, I’m terrible at math…
PWH, I am well aware that +/- and UZR are two different systems. Are you aware that there are actually different UZRs? The one that MGL keeps to himself, and the one he licenses to fangraphs?
And, dude, I know Dewan’s numbers are accessible on billjamesonline. I’m a subscriber. The point is that it is pointless to cite the stat if over 99% of the baseball fanbase ain’t gonna pay bill james money to go to his site. And being a subscriber to his site, I don’t see the point of paying for it. It sucks. It’s so poorly constructed. It just takes far too much work to get what you are looking for, and to use it make comparisons other players and so forth.
Braveheart: somewhere in the middle of the numbers you quoted in your 12:22 post and everyone’s observations on this blog is the truth:
Yunel Escobar is a good SS, not great. He is a big-bodied kid whose getting bigger as he grows older. His range is good, not great. He makes the plays he’s suppoosed to make; he doesn’t make plays. Lots of hits have gone up the middle, plays that the Omar Vizquel’s, Jack Wilson’s, and, now, Elvis Andrus’ make. Escobar has a great gun, which will prob. better serve him at third. Third will spare Escobar injuries; his distaste for turning the DP is very well-documented.
Fans tend to base fielding opinions based on SportsCenter highlights. One of the most overrated SS’s is Derek Jeter. He has never had Escobar’s gun, is slow, not quick. . .
He makes all the plays he’s supposed to make. Since he plays for the Yankees, he’ll naturally go to the HOF.
He’s a winner, and a solid hitter, not great. No one will confuse him with Omar Vizquel. If Omar Vizquel would’ve been a Yankee, he would be annointed The Greatest SS Of All Time. . .
Somewhere between the #’s and what we see (that includes scouts), is the truth. The truth is Escobar would better serve the Braves as a 3B (as soon as Chipper is gone) and either find or grow an Elvis Andrus-type SS that makes plays and saves pitching staffs.
(And yes, Escobar’s slugging is good enough to play 3B if Freeman becomes the man at 1B.)
Jurrjens–in a nutshell, UZR breaks the field up into a bunch of little zones and has people (”stringers”) at the games classifying batted ball type (LD, GB, FB, and hard, medium, soft velocity). UZR quantifies how many balls were turned into outs in each zone on average by a given position. For example, major league SS converted x% of balls in zone y. They also add in various factors, such as handedness of batter, baserunners on, etc., so the real calculation looks like:
The average ML SS converted x% of balls in zone y when a RHH was at bat and runners on 2nd and 3rd, and so on for each situation. Each fielder’s total is compared to this average figure for each zone and they are mathetized together.
At least, that was the vibe I got while reading MGL’s explaination. It could very well have changed since the articles publication, which IIRC was in 03.
Hey do any of you statty people ever wish we played in a small park? Sometimes…like when I watch a Yankees game…I wish the Braves played in a small park.
(”stringers”) at the games classifying batted ball type (LD, GB, FB, and hard, medium, soft velocity). (Steve)
one of my main complaints about it. adds too much subjectity. none of those people are gonna make the same decisions all the time. Stringer A might see one play one way while stringer B might see that play another.
Hey do any of you statty people ever wish we played in a small park? Sometimes…like when I watch a Yankees game…I wish the Braves played in a small park (RHR)
I love high scoring games, but prefer the Braves play in a spacious park.
No, MiaBeachBravesFan, when I say Escobar is a very good defender, but not great, I mean he is an above average defender. He actually saves his team runs compared to the average shortstop. Makes about 15 more plays a season than the average SS and saves his team 10 to 15 runs because of it. If I mean to say he was an average defender, I would’ve just said he was good, but not very good. I really don’t know how you could claim to watch the games and think he’s just an average defender. By the time he becomes a defensive liability that needs to be moved to third, he’ll likely be turning 30 and the Braves will likely just let him walk in free agency.
The one that MGL keeps to himself, and the one he licenses to fangraphs?
Are there significant differences? And no, I wasn’t aware that there are two versions.
I too am a BJOL subscriber, and I don’t really mind the site, though it is a bit clunky. I think it’s well worth it. Of course, I’m kind of weird, and I feel like that site is best enjoyed by people who are just a bit weird with regards to their interests. It’s not my favorite subscriber site. I prefer Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America, though BA’s interface drives me insane, too. I think the people who enjoy BJOL the most are the ones who spend the most time in the interactions section. “Hey Bill”, “Reader Posts”, “Polls and Arguments”, and even the Articles rather than the statistics. The statistics section is weird and quirky. I like it, but the rest of the site is more enjoyable, I think.
Back to rosters. I think the Konerko thing is a good idea. I don’t know if it could be accomplished. A few reasons. 1st, Konerko is a 10-and-5, he’d have to approve the trade. 2nd, I don’t know if the White Sox would even look to trade Konerko. They don’t seem to have anyone who could take that position in his absence. But FW and KW get along well, so maybe.
How does ESPN hate us again? Because they’re not covering an average team with a so-so fan base that’s quickly fading and embarrassing itself? Yeah, what jerks.
Besides, they’ve only given us the Sunday night game for what seems about 2 straight months now.
Braveheart: I see the games, and Escobar is closer to average than above average. He doesn’t throw his body around, and while he is good going to the hole (b/c of his gun), he is average on balls that go to his left. Lots of hits have gone up the middle to the left of the bag because my Cuban buddy doesn’t want to get his uni dirty.
1,687 comments Add your comment
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 7th, 2009
12:05 am
And the numbers say you are wrong. That’s all I have to say.
Wheres Billreef? Oh wait, wrong blog.
Supes
September 7th, 2009
12:05 am
It is going to be hard to find that power. I am just saying that if we do sign Figgins. He, Schafer, McLouth and Heyward can use their above average speed to force teams into mistakes. Watch how the Angels play. They drive you crazy with all their motion
**************
Rob from SC,
I agree but look at who the Braves manager is presently. Bobby Cox. He doesn’t want “speed” and doesn’t use “speed” like a Mike S. does with the Angels. Bobby Cox rather wait for the 3-run HR, except we don’t have many guys who hit many 3-run HR on a consistant basis right now.
P. W. Hjort
September 7th, 2009
12:05 am
Big innings don’t have to come with home runs. They can come by virtue of 6 singles. Or a few walks and a few singles. It’s tougher to score runs without the aid of instant offense because it usually takes 3 “events” (hit, walk, error, wild pitch, etc.) to score a run with a singles-hitting club, but I would argue big innings happen just as frequently for both types of clubs. I would say that OBP correlates more with big innings than HR, SB, or anything else.
Steve from OH
September 7th, 2009
12:06 am
What does that have to do with bunting?
It has everything to do with bunting! For example, with a runner on 1st and no outs, you expect to score about .9 runs. If you bunt successfully, you’ve got a runner at second and one out. Your run expectancy is now about .7 runs. Which odds do you want to take?
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 7th, 2009
12:07 am
Baseball drives statistics, statistics don’t drive baseball…
The A Bomb
September 7th, 2009
12:07 am
Speed works when the speed guy hits/walks/gets on base.
Look at Furcal — .255 BA with a .319 OBP.
If he was hitting this year with those guys behind him he would lead the world in runs scored.
Steve from OH
September 7th, 2009
12:07 am
Chop Chop–you like UZR? I’m not that big a fan…
long time reader
September 7th, 2009
12:08 am
I still say the Charmin moment of the season was in game 2 when Lowe got his arse picked off 2nd base by the catcher.
Braveheart
September 7th, 2009
12:08 am
Do you dolts understand a darn thing about contracts? He’s only making $50 MIL from 2009 through 2012. This is what he has to do to satisfy that contract:
(1) 2800 plate appearances with a league average OPS (.750) or so with an average glove
(2) 2800 plate appearances with an .800 or so OPS if he is a -10 defender
(3) 2100 plate appearances with an .800 or so OPS if he is an average defender
(4) 2100 plate appearances with an .850 or so OPS if he is a -10 defender
You get what you paid for. The salary terms of his contract told you what the Braves and Chipper were expecting from 2009 through 2012. They factored in a reasonable expectation of decline into the salary terms.
If he meets any of those scenarios above, he has repaid the team on the field what they have paid him. PUHLEEZE study up on contracts and make yourself somewhat familiar with how teams, agents, and players are coming to the financial terms they come to before you speak about the terms of the contract.
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 7th, 2009
12:08 am
It has everything to do with bunting! For example, with a runner on 1st and no outs, you expect to score about .9 runs. If you bunt successfully, you’ve got a runner at second and one out. Your run expectancy is now about .7 runs. Which odds do you want to take?
I’ll take the man in scoring position. And you said nothing about a man on second with one out…
P. W. Hjort
September 7th, 2009
12:08 am
One of the problems that statheads run into is the absolute arrogance that some take in their beliefs.
As a stathead, I know exactly what you mean and resent it. And I hope you don’t think I’m one of the arrogant ones.
nolie
September 7th, 2009
12:10 am
Question is will he be willing to ride off into the sunset if he is not the everyday 3rd baseman? (Rock On)
He will continue to be the starting third bseman for a while and he has said that he detests DHing, and I doubt he will just walk away from 42 million dollars.Chipper might actually bounce back a bit next season.Age is part of this year obviously, but part is likely regression to the mean.Remember I said all winter and spring that he was due for an off year. He might be more productive if they limited him to 120-130 games tops. Anyway it is too early for them to be willing to give up on him, especially considering he is stll having one of the better hitting seasons on the team despite his tailoff
Steve from OH
September 7th, 2009
12:10 am
Baseball drives statistics, statistics don’t drive baseball…
C’mon, dude. I can see arguing a specific player, because it’s very difficult to integrate offense, defense and baserunning, i.e. placing an appropriate value on each and effectively quantifying them, but in this case…the numbers are pretty clear. If you play for one run, that’s all you’ll probably get.
a643dp
September 7th, 2009
12:10 am
So is Smoltz pitching on Sunday cbssportsline says he is?
MiaBchBravesFan
September 7th, 2009
12:11 am
Oh, and by the way, Braveheart et. al.:
League Leaders in Stolen Bases
1. Rays – 170
2. Angels – 132
3. Rangers – 127
Ask Mike Sciosia and the other two managers if they did not have those numbers, would they still be competing for a division or a wild card? Esp. when two of the three are “small market” teams?
C’mon, fellas. Takes a man to admit when they’re wrong. . .
RHR
September 7th, 2009
12:11 am
Why is Chipper not allowed to chew bubblegum in the dugout when he’s not playing?
Oh that’s easy. Because he sucks. Sucky people don’t get to do anything except sit around and look like they’re sorry about sucking. Personally I think he should hold up signs in the dugout, Manny style, except Chipper’s signs need to say “You’re right, Rob. I suck and I’m sorry” and “Yes MiaBravesFan, I should ride off into the sunset, thanks for the idea!” and “I really wanted to go 0-fer today, I’m so proud of myself!” … you know, stuff like that. He needs a dry erase board so that he can have a new message up every time the camera shows him.
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 7th, 2009
12:12 am
And I hope you don’t think I’m one of the arrogant ones.
I don’t.
Steve from OH
September 7th, 2009
12:12 am
PWH–don’t forget that playoff teams pay more per marginal win than non-contending clubs. For example, a club will pay more to get from 89 to 90 wins than to get from 72 to 75 wins. Also, for individual players, I’ve got it on (what I feel to be) fairly good authority that the WAR/pay scale increases on a curve as opposed to linearly, so you’ll pay more per win as a player becomes worth more wins.
Chop Chop
September 7th, 2009
12:13 am
I like UZR better than Plus/Minus when UZR confirms my theories about certain players. Of course, either one is perfectly acceptable if a particular rating can be used to wallop a fellow blogger upside the head for cheap points. That makes me look smart.
Steve from OH
September 7th, 2009
12:15 am
Chop Chop–no need to be a smartass. There’s a time for that and a time for legit disussion, dude.
Soph
September 7th, 2009
12:15 am
That makes me look smart.
So, that’s how you manage to rack up all those props, Chop Chop.
P. W. Hjort
September 7th, 2009
12:15 am
C’mon, dude. I can see arguing a specific player, because it’s very difficult to integrate offense, defense and baserunning, i.e. placing an appropriate value on each and effectively quantifying them, but in this case…the numbers are pretty clear. If you play for one run, that’s all you’ll probably get.
I think you’re mostly right. In general you’ll score more frequently but the possibility of scoring multiple runs in the inning is diminished to the point that your overall run expectancy decreases. However, it can be used effective situationally. Like, when 1 run is all you need. Or when the guy bunting can’t hit (pitcher). Research shows that with runners on 1st and 2nd with a pitcher up and nobody out it’s actually better to have your pitcher bunt in most cases (depending on the quality of the leadoff hitter and the pitcher’s hitting ability). So 1-run strategies shouldn’t be completely done away with. Just used less frequently. Like when McLouth gets on and Prado bunts him over in the 1st inning–that’s misuse. That annoys me to no end.
Soph
September 7th, 2009
12:16 am
Thanks for the clarification, RHR. I may have some more questions for you later. Props for the info, by the way.
RHR
September 7th, 2009
12:17 am
Fill in the blanks:
The Braves are who we thought they were!
Bobby Cox Sucks and picks his nose and needs to retire.
Chipper is old and sucky and needs to retire.
Greg Norton is an overachiever.
Steve from OH
September 7th, 2009
12:17 am
However, it can be used effective situationally. Like, when 1 run is all you need. Or when the guy bunting can’t hit (pitcher).
Oh yeah, absolutely. Not arguing that point at all. Like you said–early in games and with your good hitters–terrible strategy. Bunting is great when you need one run. Not when McLouth is on first with no one up and Prado batting in the 3rd inning.
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 7th, 2009
12:19 am
Like when McLouth gets on and Prado bunts him over in the 1st inning–that’s misuse. That annoys me to no end.
How about when Nate gets on and Prado ground in a double play, or in the beginning of the season when Johnson got on and Yunel GIDP…
nolie
September 7th, 2009
12:20 am
Man on second, one out. It would theoretically take a 1 base hit to score the run in 2 chances. Man on first, no out. It would take 2 hits in 3 chances. You do the math. You also have to avoid hitting the ball on the ground in the later scenario, however with a man on second, a ground ball is productive (JJ)
seems like it should be that way doesn’t it? But it isn’t. Aman on second with one out vs aman on first with no outs acyually has been proven to cause less runs to score. It is a decent strategy when you absolutely need one run late in a game but not an efficient one to use throughout a game as the core of your offense.As far as SB is concerned, remember a few years ago the Mets stole 200 bases which is very unusual nowdays and the Braves stole 66 or so but still outscored them for the season. It’s true that these things can be effective in isolated instances, and the Braves doing them so poorly has hurt in some cases. But ever since the use of metal bats has overtaken amateur ball, allplayers have become less proficient at bunting in particular. It isn’t just the Braves who have trouble, but most teams in the MLB are not very good at them.
P. W. Hjort
September 7th, 2009
12:20 am
PWH–don’t forget that playoff teams pay more per marginal win than non-contending clubs. For example, a club will pay more to get from 89 to 90 wins than to get from 72 to 75 wins. Also, for individual players, I’ve got it on (what I feel to be) fairly good authority that the WAR/pay scale increases on a curve as opposed to linearly, so you’ll pay more per win as a player becomes worth more wins.
Yes, because a roster of 25 1-WAR players nets you 74 wins but it’s hardly worth $112 million. The roster spot is worth something too. That’s also why people sometimes over-value the effectiveness of a platoon. If you can put together Ryan Church and Matt Diaz and come up with Carlos Beltran, you haven’t come up with Carlos Beltran. You’ve come up with 2 halves of Carlos Beltran occupying 2 roster spaces as opposed to one. The whole is worth more than the sum of the parts.
Keith
September 7th, 2009
12:21 am
Trading Chipper is like trading the Pope of Atlanta but it has to be done. Chipper would be a solid DH. He is good for 120-130 games at 3B or 162 as a DH. Boston?, New York? Texas? We better trade for a AA or AAA 3B who can hit .280/25/90. More than an adequate replacement. He can be gotten by trading Chipper, Lowe, or Vazquez.
Braveheart
September 7th, 2009
12:22 am
Steve, I used to like UZR alot more than I have this season. I just don’t agree with alot of the numbers this season. One problem is that it ain’t even the real UZR. But this version of UZR that we are seeing on fangraphs is the one that is publicly available and accessible. Dewan’s may be better, but there are two problems with it. You have to pay for it, which most people won’t, and the website that it is on is so poorly constructed that it’s way too difficult to access the stat. It’s just too much of a darn hassle to go find.
I’m not convinced that any of them are better than the other. I’d much rather just have access to about 5 or 6 defensive metrics and just add them all together to come to a number that makes sense. Perhaps I’d weight some more than others based upon my own preference, or I’d just take the 6 of them and disregard the outliers at the two extremes – the one that says the guy is awesome and the one that says he sucks and just take the average of the other 4.
Most importantly though you gotta base it upon observation first. I think Yunel is a very good defender from what I’ve seen, but not great. So when I see Dewan rate him a +12 last season, and +9 this season, that makes sense to me. When I saw the other version of UZR rate him similarly last winter that made sense to me. When I saw this other fangraph version of UZR say he was just average last year and -3 this season, that just doesn’t make sense to me
P. W. Hjort
September 7th, 2009
12:23 am
Wheres Billreef? Oh wait, wrong blog.
HAHA. I’m not a fan of that guy.
Steve from OH
September 7th, 2009
12:23 am
Yes, because a roster of 25 1-WAR players nets you 74 wins but it’s hardly worth $112 million.
Yep. But keep in mind that those values are calculated from free agency, so 4.5 isn’t really what is paid per win–it’s just what is paid on the free agent market. Good post.
nolie
September 7th, 2009
12:23 am
Maybe we should start sharing bedtime stories. (RG)
sure. your bedroom or mine. OMG Ronnie was right, I am lewd!!!
MiaBchBravesFan
September 7th, 2009
12:24 am
However. . .
When your number three hitter just isn’t what he used to be and probably refuses to move down in the lineup so the SS can move to the three hole and your cleanup hitter is a beat-up catcher who is rarely rested and constantly has to clear the fog out of his goggles. . .
Then McClouth getting on base and what Prado does becomes a moot point.
NO MORE BOBBY
September 7th, 2009
12:24 am
I say we begin a collection to hire bodyguards to keep Terry Pendleton the hell away from Schafer, Heyward and Freeman. – ROB FROM SC
AMEN TO THAT!!!
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 7th, 2009
12:25 am
Nolie,
Bottom line: Braves scored 4 runs against the Reds. A little bunting and stealing ain’t gunna hurt anyone.
Chop Chop
September 7th, 2009
12:25 am
Steve,
In the interest of legitimate discussion, I think that UZR/150 and Plus/Minus are both useful. I think I’ve read that some people are trying to figure out a way to get the outliers in both systems to be a little closer in their measurements. Defense is the one area where scouts are damned accurate in their assessments of players, so tying the metrics, scouts’ reports, and any other measuring tools together would give any GM a highly accurate take on how a player fields at a particular position.
Of course, I don’t have the independent knowledge to be able to thoroughly praise or ridicule either of those metrics. I’m just reading stuff.
P. W. Hjort
September 7th, 2009
12:25 am
Dewan’s may be better, but there are two problems with it. You have to pay for it, which most people won’t, and the website that it is on is so poorly constructed that it’s way too difficult to access the stat. It’s just too much of a darn hassle to go find.
You’re speaking of two different systems. John Dewan’s +/- is different from UZR. The real version of UZR is publicly accessible on fangraphs. +/- is sort of accessible on fieldingbible.com. But the detailed numbers are available only to billjamesonline.net subscribers.
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 7th, 2009
12:26 am
HAHA. I’m not a fan of that guy.
Is anyone? I saw that dumb-bass talking about Francouers RBI today…
Classic.
Mitchell
September 7th, 2009
12:27 am
F the Braves. F Bobby Cox. F Frank Wren if he doesn’t fire him sometime in the calender year.
Steve from OH
September 7th, 2009
12:27 am
BH–my big beef with UZR is that it doesn’t account for positioning, at least in the version I read about. I realize that the math attempts to take out some of that (like the avg. SS catches .33 balls in zone x when a RHH is up and a runner is on 1B, etc.), but bad positioning can severely hurt one’s UZR and good positioning can artificially inflate it (I’m thinking of those 2 ground balls Chipper hit last night right over 2B where the SS had him played). Likewise, the talent around you can have a big effect. For example, if you’ve got Willie Mays in CF catching balls in the LF’s or RF’s zone, their UZR goes down…
Finally, there’s some subjectivity in the people grading out whether or not the ball is hit hard, medium, soft, etc. Can’t like that in an “objective” stat. I know they try to make it as uniform as possible, but problems exist.
But it is still a good approximation, because it does tell you how many plays a player made, regardless of positioning etc. There is value in that.
NO MORE BOBBY
September 7th, 2009
12:29 am
I will be a Braves fan for life but gave up on them after the first loss in this Reds series. Came home from being out all day and see that we got swept. I actually laughed.
On one hand we have some great talent this season and it sucks to lose but on the other I feel like this is what Wren needs to finally get rid of Bobby.
2010 – THE FANS WANT CHANGE
Steve from OH
September 7th, 2009
12:30 am
Chop Chop–thanks! I do enjoy hearing your input on those things. For the record, I always try to read as much as possible about a stat so I know the benefits/drawbacks of it, and know how it is calculated. Like you, I prefer scouts’ assessments to metrics and I think most front offices do too.
Steve from OH
September 7th, 2009
12:31 am
I will be a Braves fan for life but gave up on them after the first loss in this Reds series
This is rich. We’ve got a pretty good discussion going tonight about a lot of things and then this guy drops that gem. Dude, try some new material?
Roman Gal
September 7th, 2009
12:31 am
nolie, nolie, nolie…
[shakes head]
NO MORE BOBBY
September 7th, 2009
12:31 am
Where is Wayne in Utah and all the other Bobby lovers?
Not much to say now is there?
Braveheart
September 7th, 2009
12:32 am
PWH, that ain’t the real version of UZR on fangraphs.
NO MORE BOBBY
September 7th, 2009
12:35 am
Sorry Steve from OH. Im not here to drop “material”.
Im on here to vent just like everyone else. Sorry my choice of hate words were not up to your expectations.
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 7th, 2009
12:35 am
All this talk about UZR and +/- is crazy…
I use the fielding rating in the scouting report on the back of players baseball cards on MLB The Show 09…
There, I’d thought I through Soph a bone before I went to bed…
P. W. Hjort
September 7th, 2009
12:35 am
Braveheart,
Yes it is. It isn’t Dewan’s UZR, because Dewan isn’t directly responsible for the creation of UZR. Dewan’s brainchild is +/-. But as far as UZR goes, Fangraphs has the real deal. And I will agree with you, I prefer +/-.
Roman Gal
September 7th, 2009
12:35 am
Not much to say now is there?
Not much to say about what?
Steve from OH
September 7th, 2009
12:36 am
Im on here to vent just like everyone else.
You’re the only one venting here, big guy.
nolie
September 7th, 2009
12:36 am
Bottom line: Braves scored 4 runs against the Reds. A little bunting and stealing ain’t gunna hurt anyone (JJ)
whatever dude.In case you don’y know it, absolutely anything can happen in a short series in baseball. It has nothing to do with what might happen another one.
Re the difference between statophiles and statophobes:
Stuart Chase once said
“For someone who believes no proof is necessary.For someone who doesn’t believe no proof is possible”
applies to a lot of things in the ol’ world
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 7th, 2009
12:37 am
Back page blues » Comment Page 11 | Atlanta Braves with David O’Brien
You want the Braves vent… here you go: http://projects.ajc.com/vent/sports/braves/2009/09/07/#606646
P. W. Hjort
September 7th, 2009
12:38 am
NO MORE BOBBY,
Here to Vent are you? Because I hear we have a “Vent” for that.
Steve from OH
September 7th, 2009
12:38 am
I like +/- better as well…but I think the “perfect” defensive metric would use vectors to chart how far (and fast) the fielder moved and how fast and on what trajectory the ball moved. But then again, I’m terrible at math…
Chop Chop
September 7th, 2009
12:38 am
For someone who vacillates between belief and unbelief, the proof is in the pudding.
Soph
September 7th, 2009
12:39 am
There, I’d thought I through Soph a bone before I went to bed…
Unfortunately, I’m just as lost as you. So, I can’t do anything with the bone.
Braveheart
September 7th, 2009
12:39 am
PWH, I am well aware that +/- and UZR are two different systems. Are you aware that there are actually different UZRs? The one that MGL keeps to himself, and the one he licenses to fangraphs?
And, dude, I know Dewan’s numbers are accessible on billjamesonline. I’m a subscriber. The point is that it is pointless to cite the stat if over 99% of the baseball fanbase ain’t gonna pay bill james money to go to his site. And being a subscriber to his site, I don’t see the point of paying for it. It sucks. It’s so poorly constructed. It just takes far too much work to get what you are looking for, and to use it make comparisons other players and so forth.
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 7th, 2009
12:39 am
Im on here to vent just like everyone else.
You want the Braves Vent, here: http://projects.ajc.com/vent/sports/braves/2009/09/07/#606646
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 7th, 2009
12:40 am
Damn you Steve from OH and PWHjort!!!
I had it! I beat you, but then I screw up! GRRR!
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 7th, 2009
12:41 am
Unfortunately, I’m just as lost as you. So, I can’t do anything with the bone.
I’m not lost… What ever happened to our quarrel?
Steve from OH
September 7th, 2009
12:41 am
By the way, the “I’m not here to drop material” line is just put on a tee for jokes.
Soph
September 7th, 2009
12:42 am
I’m not lost… What ever happened to our quarrel?
You quit, remember?
nolie
September 7th, 2009
12:42 am
For someone who vacillates between belief and unbelief, the proof is in the pudding. (CHOP)
most on here are either one or the other not some vascillating agnostic. Vanilla or chocolate pudding?
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 7th, 2009
12:43 am
You quit, remember?
…No.
RHR
September 7th, 2009
12:43 am
Did someone say material?
Walaa! Here I am!
Uhh…
Chop Chop
September 7th, 2009
12:43 am
Chocolate vanilla swirl, nolie.
Soph
September 7th, 2009
12:43 am
Tapioca?
MiaBchBravesFan
September 7th, 2009
12:44 am
Braveheart: somewhere in the middle of the numbers you quoted in your 12:22 post and everyone’s observations on this blog is the truth:
Yunel Escobar is a good SS, not great. He is a big-bodied kid whose getting bigger as he grows older. His range is good, not great. He makes the plays he’s suppoosed to make; he doesn’t make plays. Lots of hits have gone up the middle, plays that the Omar Vizquel’s, Jack Wilson’s, and, now, Elvis Andrus’ make. Escobar has a great gun, which will prob. better serve him at third. Third will spare Escobar injuries; his distaste for turning the DP is very well-documented.
Fans tend to base fielding opinions based on SportsCenter highlights. One of the most overrated SS’s is Derek Jeter. He has never had Escobar’s gun, is slow, not quick. . .
He makes all the plays he’s supposed to make. Since he plays for the Yankees, he’ll naturally go to the HOF.
He’s a winner, and a solid hitter, not great. No one will confuse him with Omar Vizquel. If Omar Vizquel would’ve been a Yankee, he would be annointed The Greatest SS Of All Time. . .
Somewhere between the #’s and what we see (that includes scouts), is the truth. The truth is Escobar would better serve the Braves as a 3B (as soon as Chipper is gone) and either find or grow an Elvis Andrus-type SS that makes plays and saves pitching staffs.
(And yes, Escobar’s slugging is good enough to play 3B if Freeman becomes the man at 1B.)
nolie
September 7th, 2009
12:45 am
Chocolate vanilla swirl, (CHOP)
Steve from OH
September 7th, 2009
12:45 am
Jurrjens–in a nutshell, UZR breaks the field up into a bunch of little zones and has people (”stringers”) at the games classifying batted ball type (LD, GB, FB, and hard, medium, soft velocity). UZR quantifies how many balls were turned into outs in each zone on average by a given position. For example, major league SS converted x% of balls in zone y. They also add in various factors, such as handedness of batter, baserunners on, etc., so the real calculation looks like:
The average ML SS converted x% of balls in zone y when a RHH was at bat and runners on 2nd and 3rd, and so on for each situation. Each fielder’s total is compared to this average figure for each zone and they are mathetized together.
Soph
September 7th, 2009
12:45 am
…No.
Well, I thought you did. You said you hated me then disappeared. And, you said I was 30 which I’m still mad at you about.
Steve from OH
September 7th, 2009
12:48 am
At least, that was the vibe I got while reading MGL’s explaination. It could very well have changed since the articles publication, which IIRC was in 03.
RHR
September 7th, 2009
12:48 am
Hey do any of you statty people ever wish we played in a small park? Sometimes…like when I watch a Yankees game…I wish the Braves played in a small park.
nolie
September 7th, 2009
12:49 am
(”stringers”) at the games classifying batted ball type (LD, GB, FB, and hard, medium, soft velocity). (Steve)
one of my main complaints about it. adds too much subjectity. none of those people are gonna make the same decisions all the time. Stringer A might see one play one way while stringer B might see that play another.
RHR
September 7th, 2009
12:49 am
And isn’t Yunel like 27? When will he stop being “young” and “kid”?
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 7th, 2009
12:50 am
Well, I thought you did. You said you hated me then disappeared. And, you said I was 30 which I’m still mad at you about.
My laptop broke…
Well than how old?
Here, I’ll give you a clue about my age…
I’m old enough to know were babies come from but not old enough to have sex with Jennifer Aniston…
GAH! (**Slams hand on desk**) Someday…
…someday.
nolie
September 7th, 2009
12:50 am
Hey do any of you statty people ever wish we played in a small park? Sometimes…like when I watch a Yankees game…I wish the Braves played in a small park (RHR)
I love high scoring games, but prefer the Braves play in a spacious park.
Steve from OH
September 7th, 2009
12:51 am
nolie–yessir. I said as much at 12:27.
RHR
September 7th, 2009
12:52 am
JJ dude, everyone already knows you’re still in high school.
nolie – if only we had retractable seats – out when the braves hit, in when the other team hits LOL
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 7th, 2009
12:52 am
How much money are we going to get from shared revenue?? Seeing as how ESPN hates us…
Braveheart
September 7th, 2009
12:52 am
No, MiaBeachBravesFan, when I say Escobar is a very good defender, but not great, I mean he is an above average defender. He actually saves his team runs compared to the average shortstop. Makes about 15 more plays a season than the average SS and saves his team 10 to 15 runs because of it. If I mean to say he was an average defender, I would’ve just said he was good, but not very good. I really don’t know how you could claim to watch the games and think he’s just an average defender. By the time he becomes a defensive liability that needs to be moved to third, he’ll likely be turning 30 and the Braves will likely just let him walk in free agency.
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 7th, 2009
12:54 am
if only we had retractable seats – out when the braves hit, in when the other team hits LOL
So THATS how the Astros beat us in 05…
Soph
September 7th, 2009
12:54 am
Here, I’ll give you a clue about my age…
8 year olds know where babies come from these days.
RHR
September 7th, 2009
12:54 am
I’m glad ESPN hates us. Sure wouldn’t want to hear what they’d have to say about this blistering 5 game losing streak.
P. W. Hjort
September 7th, 2009
12:54 am
The one that MGL keeps to himself, and the one he licenses to fangraphs?
Are there significant differences? And no, I wasn’t aware that there are two versions.
I too am a BJOL subscriber, and I don’t really mind the site, though it is a bit clunky. I think it’s well worth it. Of course, I’m kind of weird, and I feel like that site is best enjoyed by people who are just a bit weird with regards to their interests. It’s not my favorite subscriber site. I prefer Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America, though BA’s interface drives me insane, too. I think the people who enjoy BJOL the most are the ones who spend the most time in the interactions section. “Hey Bill”, “Reader Posts”, “Polls and Arguments”, and even the Articles rather than the statistics. The statistics section is weird and quirky. I like it, but the rest of the site is more enjoyable, I think.
Steve from OH
September 7th, 2009
12:54 am
I don’t think Yunel’s hip flexor problems have helped him at all this year either…and those tend to stay with you a while.
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 7th, 2009
12:55 am
8 year olds know where babies come from these days.
Thats hot.
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 7th, 2009
12:56 am
I’m glad ESPN hates us. Sure wouldn’t want to hear what they’d have to say about this blistering 5 game losing streak.
If ESPN liked us, they would great pitching and how its like the mid 90s all over again.
jeffrey d
September 7th, 2009
12:57 am
8 year olds are hot? Gross.
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 7th, 2009
12:57 am
Oh. and before Soph goes off and thinks I’m a pervent, I was being being sarcastic…
Soph
September 7th, 2009
12:58 am
jeffrey, please take him under your wing. He needs help.
Headed in the wrong direction…
P. W. Hjort
September 7th, 2009
12:58 am
Back to rosters. I think the Konerko thing is a good idea. I don’t know if it could be accomplished. A few reasons. 1st, Konerko is a 10-and-5, he’d have to approve the trade. 2nd, I don’t know if the White Sox would even look to trade Konerko. They don’t seem to have anyone who could take that position in his absence. But FW and KW get along well, so maybe.
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 7th, 2009
12:58 am
Oops, this time it was jeffrey d.
Sorry Soph, I undermined you again
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 7th, 2009
12:59 am
Oops, wait Soph. I was right about you all along…
jeffrey d
September 7th, 2009
12:59 am
How does ESPN hate us again? Because they’re not covering an average team with a so-so fan base that’s quickly fading and embarrassing itself? Yeah, what jerks.
Besides, they’ve only given us the Sunday night game for what seems about 2 straight months now.
MiaBchBravesFan
September 7th, 2009
1:00 am
Braveheart: I see the games, and Escobar is closer to average than above average. He doesn’t throw his body around, and while he is good going to the hole (b/c of his gun), he is average on balls that go to his left. Lots of hits have gone up the middle to the left of the bag because my Cuban buddy doesn’t want to get his uni dirty.
Apparently, we agree to disagree.
Roman Gal
September 7th, 2009
1:00 am
I’m glad ESPN hates us.
Blasphemy! If we had ESPN’s approval, we’d be the best team EVER! Wait…maybe we just need to take matters into our own hands.
Soph
September 7th, 2009
1:00 am
Oops, wait Soph. I was right about you all along…
So, you think you’ve got me all figured out, huh?