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© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
1,687 comments Add your comment
Rob from SC
September 6th, 2009
11:00 pm
It is going to be hard to find that power. I am just saying that if we do sign Figgins. He, Schafer, McLouth and Heyward can use their above average speed to force teams into mistakes. Watch how the Angels play. They drive you crazy with all their motion
Rob from SC
September 6th, 2009
11:01 pm
P. W. Hjort
Why have a good pen when Cox is still running things?
njbraves
September 6th, 2009
11:03 pm
MiaBch Braves Fan….you win today’s award for dumbest poster. Congrats. Not one single thing you posted has any chance of happening. You might as well just post blank entries…it would be the same thing.
MiaBchBravesFan
September 6th, 2009
11:04 pm
Kerry Wood???
Are we serious???
The Envoy
September 6th, 2009
11:04 pm
Jurrjens4NLCY,
The only thing I know about Bud is that his childhood team was the Braves, has always loved the organization and missed them when they left Milwaukee. I suppose his love of Baseball is one reason Milwaukee has a team again. The only solution to the Yankees is to put a major league franchise in New Jersey. It would be as 5 times difficult as the one that went to Washington, DC.
Steve from OH
September 6th, 2009
11:04 pm
He, Schafer, McLouth and Heyward can use their above average speed to force teams into mistakes. Watch how the Angels play. They drive you crazy with all their motion
I’m sorry, but speed just doesn’t have as big of an impact as you think. It just doesn’t. Great team defense will have a huge impact, but Figgins won’t impact that very much in the OF compared to our in-house options and not at 2B (his UZR there is not good). We don’t need speed as much with Schafer and Heyward in our lineup. Whiteyball ain’t gonna win the NL East up against the Phillies.
Braveheart
September 6th, 2009
11:05 pm
I’d rather my catchers look hairy like Thurman Munson than pretty like Javy Lopez
Roman Gal
September 6th, 2009
11:07 pm
Easier though, than Rastus Sponge-Bobfurgerburg Shamus
You mean, “Riastus Sponge-Bobfurgerburg”, right?
MiaBchBravesFan
September 6th, 2009
11:07 pm
njbraves: you disagree, make an argument. I never get personal with anyone on this blog, bud.
Go take a jump in some toxic waste.
Steve from OH
September 6th, 2009
11:08 pm
Give this a read, Rob:
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9493
Never ask the baserunning game to do the heavy lifting of the ability-driven hitting game.
Chop Chop
September 6th, 2009
11:09 pm
Braveheart,
I’d rather my catchers not die in plane wrecks.
The Envoy
September 6th, 2009
11:10 pm
njbraves,
I’m for putting a team in NJ to compete with the Yankees. Would you cheer for the Newark Mudcats?
P. W. Hjort
September 6th, 2009
11:10 pm
MiaBchBravesFan,
Kerry Wood???
Are we serious???
Why wouldn’t I be?
Roman Gal
September 6th, 2009
11:11 pm
Braveheart-
Great job with your only minor league recap of the season, but you’re just gonna cause more Heyward-obsessed fans break out into a cold sweat and start speaking in Tongues. We’ve already got Rob from SC foaming at the mouth here…we don’t need anymore of them doing it.
Soph
September 6th, 2009
11:11 pm
Oh, Chop Chop. No props for that one.
MiaBchBravesFan
September 6th, 2009
11:14 pm
P.W.: No offense, but might as well sign Danny Kolb. Just b/c Smoltz, Contreras, and any other AL pitcher comes to the NL and has one-two good starts does not mean anything. Wood is done, sadly.
Braveheart
September 6th, 2009
11:14 pm
Something else I wanted to know after watching today’s Gwinnett game, what’s the deal with Juan Perez? I guess he walks too many, but, man, when you see a lefty reliever who throws 94 mph, and strikes out alot of batters, but who’s 30 years old and been stuck in AAA for 5 years, you gotta ask what the hell is the deal with that dude?
Roman Gal
September 6th, 2009
11:15 pm
I’m sorry, but speed just doesn’t have as big of an impact as you think. It just doesn’t. Steve from OH
That may be true, but it certainly has been hard to watch every other team consistently go first to third and score from second on base hits while we hardly ever do it. I don’t think it’s utterly important for every member of the team to be speedy, but it would be nice to have more than one.
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 6th, 2009
11:15 pm
I think the Braves need to understand their potential. If you played small ball properly, you could score 5 to 6 runs a game, maybe more. The offense is well built to play small ball but tries swinging for the fences. A part of that is because you have too many problematic big name players like Chipper Jones (slump/old), Brian McCann (slump), Garret Anderson (old), Adam LaRoche (Big name), who you could theoretically NEVER ask to lay a bunt down. When in reality, if they did, we would be better off. Guys like Nate McLouth, Ryan Church, Matt Diaz, Yunel Escobar, Omar Infante can play ball the right way. (Not to say Chip, LaRoche, McCann, Anderson can’t).
SCENARIO:
McLouth, Church, Infante are due up in the inning.
McLouth starts with a leadoff single.
Church bunts him over to second, 1 out.
After Infante works the count in his favor, Nate steals while Infante bunts the ball to third, however Nate doesn’t stop and continues home while the unknowing third baseman throws to first, run scores, 2 out.
It works a lot, I do it all the time on The Show 09.
Furthermore, In 2010, I want to see more bunts, more squeezes, and more hit and runs!
Shalamadingdong!
Steve from OH
September 6th, 2009
11:17 pm
That may be true, but it certainly has been hard to watch every other team consistently go first to third and score from second on base hits while we hardly ever do it.
I’d say that this has less to do with overall speed and more to do with intelligent baserunning. This team does not run the bases well. Speed is obviously a component to it, but not the only variable. There’s no reason Yunel, Chipper, Prado, Diaz, Church, and McLouth should not be able to go 1st to 3rd IMO. Schafer and Heyward will only help that figure.
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 6th, 2009
11:19 pm
My favorite memory of Kerry Wood is when he missed a few weeks of stretch baseball because he had a bo bo on his wittle finger…
Soph
September 6th, 2009
11:19 pm
It works a lot, I do it all the time on The Show 09.
I’m biting my tongue on this one.
Shalamadingdong!
Slamalamadingdong?
MiaBchBravesFan
September 6th, 2009
11:20 pm
JJ CY: if you can’t afford power like the Braves can’t, that’s a good idea. Unfortunately, there are no McCutcheon’s in our minors, and the days of an OF that covers more grass than kudzu are a distant memory.
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 6th, 2009
11:22 pm
Soph,
1. The Show comment was a joke.
2. jeffrey d told me that was my new catchphrase…
Braveheart
September 6th, 2009
11:22 pm
Small ball as a strategy is a miserable failure if your goal is to score 5 or 6 runs a game. Small ball as a situational tactic is great for stealing a critical run here or there late in games.
Steve from OH
September 6th, 2009
11:22 pm
Unfortunately, there are no McCutcheon’s in our minors, and the days of an OF that covers more grass than kudzu are a distant memory.
What do you mean? Schafer and Heyward are both plus defenders at their positions, and McLouth would be an excellent defensive LF.
MiaBchBravesFan
September 6th, 2009
11:23 pm
I mean really, I would love to see the Braves built like the Cardinals from the mid-80’s, where practically everyone in the lineup was a blur. At The Ted, they’d be a sight to see.
P. W. Hjort
September 6th, 2009
11:23 pm
P.W.: No offense, but might as well sign Danny Kolb. Just b/c Smoltz, Contreras, and any other AL pitcher comes to the NL and has one-two good starts does not mean anything. Wood is done, sadly.
You’re badly mistaken. Kerry Wood may not be 2003 Kerry Wood, but he’s still a very valuable reliever. If he can cut his walk rate back to 2008 levels (when he posted a 2.21 FIP and 3.12 xFIP) he could be one of the best relievers in the game. Even if he can’t, his 4.08 xFIP this year and 10.34 K/9 would play very well in the NL.
nolie
September 6th, 2009
11:23 pm
You are convinced the braves will do better without Soriano and Gonzo because their combined salary is a little over 10 mil (Jake)
If they re-signed next season it would come to a lot more than 10 mil. I’d like to keep both, but I will be amazed if they do that.
Soph
September 6th, 2009
11:23 pm
Oh, I forgot jeffrey took you under his wing. Carry on then.
Steve from OH
September 6th, 2009
11:24 pm
I mean really, I would love to see the Braves built like the Cardinals from the mid-80’s, where practically everyone in the lineup was a blur.
Aaaarrrghh!
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 6th, 2009
11:25 pm
JJ CY: if you can’t afford power like the Braves can’t, that’s a good idea. Unfortunately, there are no McCutcheon’s in our minors, and the days of an OF that covers more grass than kudzu are a distant memory.
But see, thats the thing, we can do that. We have the power! If Bobby (and I hate to say this) could manage more small ball plays, we be great.
Roman Gal
September 6th, 2009
11:26 pm
You’re right. Schafer and Heyward will help. Actually, I think Kelly Johnson should host a Baserunning Clinic for the team. Despite Nate’s stealing ability, I think Kelly is the best baserunner. Early in the year, bad baserunning cost us a bunch of runs. I think it’s something that needs to be addressed in the offseason, even if it’s just letting Anderson walk away and having Schafer or Heyward up to start the year.
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 6th, 2009
11:27 pm
Small ball as a strategy is a miserable failure if your goal is to score 5 or 6 runs a game. Small ball as a situational tactic is great for stealing a critical run here or there late in games.
I disagree. And if the casual baseball fan wasn’t in love with homeruns, and teams played more small ball, you would too.
Roman Gal
September 6th, 2009
11:27 pm
Actually, Steve, as acting President of the Kelly Johnson Fan Club, you should probably help him coordinate such an event.
Steve from OH
September 6th, 2009
11:27 pm
Roman Gal–agreed!
nolie
September 6th, 2009
11:27 pm
Chipper’s been such a huge cog for so long that it’s hard to imagine him somewhere else. But, it appears that the AL is best suited for him at this point. His body can’t take playing both-ways for an entire season anymore. He can hang around for years as a DH. (Shamus)
why do y’all keep posting this? THe man has said numerous times that he hates DHing, has taken financial deals to stay a Brave and can’t be traded without his consent. And just what team is supposed to be willing to pay 42 mil for a 38YO DH anyway?
MiaBchBravesFan
September 6th, 2009
11:28 pm
Braveheart, I beg to differ. The Angels are scoring runs in bunches because they run like gazelles every chance they get. With the exception of Pujols, not that many HR’s in the League this year. With drug testing, that’s gonna continue to drop.
Soon, it’ll be like the 70’s and early 80’s, where 30-35 HR’s will get you a league HR title. Without PED’s, speed is the new power. The Pirates look like they may break their string of futility soon. Power is expensive; speed is cheap.
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 6th, 2009
11:28 pm
RG,
Kelly Johnson or Matt Diaz… Matty always busts it out of the box.
Steve from OH
September 6th, 2009
11:29 pm
I disagree. And if the casual baseball fan wasn’t in love with homeruns, and teams played more small ball, you would too.
Sorry, but this topic is not one that is ambiguous in nature, and whether or not teams do it or don’t do it has no bearing on the fact that bunting (i.e. giving up outs) lowers your expected runs. Plain and simple. There’s no ambiguity in that–it is what it is.
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 6th, 2009
11:30 pm
speed is cheap
I see you’ve never been to 36th and Clarence…
Roman Gal
September 6th, 2009
11:32 pm
And if the casual baseball fan wasn’t in love with homeruns
I don’t think it has anything to do with the fans. Homeruns and power are a big part of the game right now because they help you win more games…more so than “small-ball” anyhow.
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 6th, 2009
11:32 pm
Steve from OH,
Bunting is “giving up outs”?? No no no, my friend, its making productive outs. Something this team fails to do.
nolie
September 6th, 2009
11:33 pm
I think Dunn could be had for a can’t miss lefty like Teahren(sp again). The Nats could sell to fans since Dunn would be in a contract year. (Envoy)
more utter nonsense. They passed on Dunn for just money last year but now they are supposed to give up a can’t miss prospect in addition to paying him more than they were willing. I got news for you, Dunn is not the type of player that Bobby has any use for so he ain’t coming here as long as Cox is around. Wren is a tad more into newer stats, but like Bobby he values defense and batting average so it’s unlikely he wants him either. Dream what you will but don’t hold your breath.
Doc Holiday
September 6th, 2009
11:33 pm
Steve from OH,
Whiteyball might not win games 1-0 or 2-1 in the east, but it can sure win them 8-7. Braves are 68-109 in 1 run games since the beginning of 2006…….. You think Speed could have not saved us at least 33% of those 109 loses? that would give us 104-73 record in 1 run games on that 4 year span. I think speed helps you win at least 10 games you would have lost during the season compared to your record if you are a team as slow as the bravos.
Bobby loves playing AL type of baseball with a NL type team………….double check that, Braves are not even a good NL type team, since they dont know how to bunt, how to advance runners and how and when to use their PH adequately.
Rock On........
September 6th, 2009
11:33 pm
Another nice trip to Atlanta. Unfortunately the Hokies lost but albeit to a better team. Been to a lot of football games folks but nothing topped the noice generated in the Dome last night.
Oh yeah, caught the Braves Friday night. Walking into the stadium the Tomahawk girls asked if I played golf. Got to go up against Brooks Conrad and a couple of other fans in a closest to the pin contest. Luck was on my side and the rest need lessons. Conrad is a good dude and funny. Was standing next to Medlen. The guy will be carded for ever. Saying he looks like he is in high school doesn’t do him justice.
Watching the Braves, the same thought popped into my head all weekend, how long can they keep Chipper and be a serious contender? The Braves may have to make a move there post 2010. Will the Braves move Chipper? Four runs in three games at home to the Reds and get swept is embarrasing.
Steve from OH
September 6th, 2009
11:35 pm
Speed is absolutely useless if you cannot get on base and cannot hit for power. If you look at the 3 Herzog clubs that won the NL in the 80’s, all three lead the NL in OBP and one lead the NL in OPS, while the other two were never worse than average in adjusted OPS. Speed is an excellent secondary weapon, but all good offenses are build around the ability to get on base and the ability to accrue total bases.
Roman Gal
September 6th, 2009
11:35 pm
JJ-
Kelly, by far. Matty always hustles, but Kelly hustles and he’s actually got good speed.
Soph
September 6th, 2009
11:37 pm
Kelly, by far. Matty always hustles, but Kelly hustles and he’s actually got good speed.
And, Kelly doesn’t make many mistakes when on base. At least from what I remember…
Steve from OH
September 6th, 2009
11:37 pm
Bunting is “giving up outs”?? No no no, my friend, its making productive outs. Something this team fails to do
Bunting is absolutely giving up outs and your team expects to score less runs with a runner on second and one out than with a runner on first and no outs. Them’s the facts, no two ways about it.
Braveheart
September 6th, 2009
11:39 pm
MiaBchBravesFan, what the Angels are doing isn’t small ball. They lead the majors in batting average, have the second highest OBP, above average isolated power, and the third highest OPS in the majors
MiaBchBravesFan
September 6th, 2009
11:40 pm
Hopefully, Schafer will be a fine CF, but he’s no Lou Brock or Rickey Henderson, let’s not get crazy here. Heyward is a star-in-waiting (we hope), but he’s not going to be stealing 30-40 bases anytime soon with the Bravos. The kind of small-ball JJCY is talking about would require a complete organizational paradigm shift.
The pitching is better than fine. However, I don’t know that J.S., Frank Wren, and Bobby Cox are prepared to face the future, given their financial restrictions and what they need to put at positions 2 through 9 in order to win.
I mean really, take away just two people from the past 20 years – Andres Galarraga and Fred McGriff – and ask yourself how vastly different the legacy of the Braves would actually be.
Roman Gal
September 6th, 2009
11:40 pm
So, I thought it was interesting today that Joe kept talking about the “good defense” and how our “good defense” today was amazing. Sure, there were good plays, but I actually think our defense is what cost us the game. Nate’s not throwing home allowing the first run to score, and Gorecki slowly getting to the ball allowing Votto to get the third.
Oyy, I really don’t like Joe. He just gets on my nerves.
Steve from OH
September 6th, 2009
11:43 pm
but I actually think our defense is what cost us the game
Our defense has been a big part of why we’ve lost as many games as we have. When you think about it, we have a lot of bad defenders–Anderson, Chipper, Prado/Kelly are all below-average. McLouth is not good according to UZR and I do think his range is lacking. Francoeur didn’t wow in his time here and Diaz is average at best out there. Yunel is above-average IMO and so is Church but that’s not a lot. This team needs a defensive overhaul.
Roman Gal
September 6th, 2009
11:43 pm
And, Kelly doesn’t make many mistakes when on base.
Kelly is the best baserunner, Nate is the best basestealer.
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 6th, 2009
11:43 pm
all good offenses are build around the ability to get on base and the ability to accrue total bases.
Tell me,
Whats the difference between an infield single by Gathright and a single ripped into the gap by Dunn?
Or a single, stolen base and a double?
Sure you could say a lower SLG%, but the only thing that matters is winning.
Someone like Gathright/Pierre/Gomez can hit singles and steal second more than Dunn/Howard/Thome can hit doubles.
RHR
September 6th, 2009
11:43 pm
What if we just did nothing.
SP – Derek Lowe $15,000,000
SP – Javier Vazquez – $11,500,000
SP – Tim Hudson – $12,000,000
SP – Tommy Hanson – $400,000
SP – Jair Jurrjens – $400,000
RP – Peter Moylan – $1,500,000
RP – Kenshin Kawakami – $7,333,333
RP – Manny Acosta – $400,000
RP – Eric O’Flaherty – $400,000
RP – Kris Medlen – $400,000
RP – Boone Logan – $400,000
RP – Craig Kimbrel – $400,000
C – Brian McCann – $5,666,666
1B – Martin Prado – $400,000
2B – Kelly Johnson – $3,750,000
SS – Yunel Escobar – $400,000
3B – Chipper Jones – $13,000,000
LF – Nate McLouth – $5,000,000
CF – Jordan Schafer – $400,000
RF – Jason Heyward – $400,000
BC – David Ross – $1,600,000
IF – Omar Infante – $1,850,000
IF – Brooks Conrad – $400,000
OF – Matt Diaz – $3,000,000
OF – Ryan Church – $3,750,000
Total 2010 Payroll: $89,750,000</i
nolie
September 6th, 2009
11:44 pm
So if you rid yourself of McLouth, Chipper, KK, Diaz and Ross you cut down about 30 MM in payroll (STEVE)
I don’t know if you are responding to a previous post, but I hope everybody knows that they ain’t getting rid of most of those guys let out all of them. In fact I’ll wager that no more than one would leave if that, unless 2 went in a blockbuster trade of some kind
Rock On........
September 6th, 2009
11:45 pm
Nolie, don’t know all the aspects of Chipper’s contract but obviously he goes nowhere else unless he wants to. Question is will he be willing to ride off into the sunset if he is not the everyday 3rd baseman?
RHR
September 6th, 2009
11:46 pm
I’m gonna need DOB to go ahead and give me the ability to edit my posts so I can fix my mess ups. I think I’ve earned it.
Jim – glad you found my explanation of the meanings of various facial expressions at various times helpful. I am good at these things. Just let me know if you have any other questions about smiles/frowns/jokes/laughs/clubhouse chemistry.
P. W. Hjort
September 6th, 2009
11:47 pm
Bunting is “giving up outs”?? No no no, my friend, its making productive outs. Something this team fails to do.
What he’s saying is that choosing to make a productive out, even if you execute the play perfectly every time, slightly lowers your expected run production because it decreases the probability of a big inning. Of course, the fact that teams–the Braves in particular–are extremely bad at executing these “small ball strategies” only decreases your run expectancy (and increases fan irritation), but that’s a different issue all together. The fact is, every time Bobby tells Diaz or Prado or anyone to sacrifice themselves and make a productive out rather than try to get on base, the Braves cost themselves runs. Giving Bobby more motivation to do so would be a colossal mistake.
nolie
September 6th, 2009
11:47 pm
And yes, Chipper has to defer money and leave (MiaBch)
that ain’t happening.
Steve from OH
September 6th, 2009
11:47 pm
On-base percentage and slugging percentage (and as a result, linear weight stats such as EqA) have a very strong correlation with run scoring. Stolen bases have no such correlation.
Stolen bases are not a bad thing by any stretch of the imagination, but stolen bases are useless if you’re not getting on base at a good rate and even more so if you’re getting caught a lot. SB% is waaay more important than the sheer number of SB. If you don’t steal at more than a 75% ratio, you cost your team runs. That is a big gamble to take considering that fate lies solely within the two eyes of the 2nd base umpire.
RHR
September 6th, 2009
11:47 pm
And, Kelly doesn’t make many mistakes when on base.
Getting to the base is the problem.
*ducks*
nolie
September 6th, 2009
11:48 pm
I gotta say that the full of them tonight.. I’m reading some mighty silly posts here.
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 6th, 2009
11:48 pm
Bunting is absolutely giving up outs and your team expects to score less runs with a runner on second and one out than with a runner on first and no outs. Them’s the facts, no two ways about it.
Hmm,
Man on second, one out. It would theoretically take a 1 base hit to score the run in 2 chances. Man on first, no out. It would take 2 hits in 3 chances. You do the math. You also have to avoid hitting the ball on the ground in the later scenario, however with a man on second, a ground ball is productive…
Steve from OH
September 6th, 2009
11:49 pm
nolie–yes, was responding to another post. Not my idea!
Soph
September 6th, 2009
11:49 pm
I have one RHR, and it’s going to require your expertise. It’s a question about a specific player. Why is Chipper not allowed to chew bubblegum in the dugout when he’s not playing?
I mean some of the posts on here today crucified him for smiling, laughing, and gosh forbid chewing stuff while on the bench during the game.
Rock On........
September 6th, 2009
11:50 pm
Steve….and this team can have bases loaded and no outs and not score.
Soph
September 6th, 2009
11:51 pm
Getting to the base is the problem.
Touche. I’m mad at myself for not thinking of that when I was typing my post about his baserunning.
Roman Gal
September 6th, 2009
11:51 pm
This team needs a defensive overhaul.
Agreed. The thing that bothers me most is when the opposition takes extra bases when some good, aggressive defense would’ve prevented it. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve yelled at the tv when Nate or Garrett didn’t attempt to throw out a runner even when they had a play.
Chop Chop
September 6th, 2009
11:51 pm
Soph,
I’m mad at Chipper because he wore a Tebow jersey. I’d trade him for a Francoeur rookie card right about now.
jcfromut
September 6th, 2009
11:51 pm
Is there any chance Lowe is the closer next season? It would free up some money not resigning either Soriano or Gonzo and free up a rotation spot.
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 6th, 2009
11:52 pm
Is there any chance Lowe is the closer next season? It would free up some money not resigning either Soriano or Gonzo and free up a rotation spot.
Not for 60M dollars…
Rock On........
September 6th, 2009
11:52 pm
Chipper has already deferred money once before. Ain’t happening again nor should it.
RHR
September 6th, 2009
11:53 pm
Just think. The Braves could have signed Ilbanez for 3 years, $30 mil.
Are you one of those Fire Chipper! people? Please tell me that you are…
Roman Gal
September 6th, 2009
11:53 pm
Getting to the base is the problem. RHR
That’s obviously what Greg Norton is for…
Steve from OH
September 6th, 2009
11:53 pm
You do the math.
It’s already been done! What, do you think I’m making this sh#t up? I don’t know what else to tell you.
The A Bomb
September 6th, 2009
11:54 pm
Two speed guys at the top of the lineup work — if they get on base.
Worked with Nixon and Sanders for awhile…
Works with Reyes and Castillo (when healthy).
Works with Rollins and Victorino.
But Furcal and Pierre only worked when both hit.
Only combo I don’t understand being broken up was Pittsburgh with McCutchen and Morgan. I know they’re both CFs but that would have been dynamite.
Steve from OH
September 6th, 2009
11:54 pm
Roman Gal–oh yeah, Garret frustrates me to no end in the OF. Nate-Dawg too.
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 6th, 2009
11:54 pm
PWHjort,
If anyone thinks the Braves are capable of creating a big inning, they are delusional and in denial.
Soph
September 6th, 2009
11:54 pm
I’m mad at Chipper because he wore a Tebow jersey. I’d trade him for a Francoeur rookie card right about now.
Ok, Chop Chop. I give you permission to be mad at Chipper for that. But, a Francoeur rookie card? Let’s not get too hasty here.
MiaBchBravesFan
September 6th, 2009
11:55 pm
Nolie: LOL – if the Braves are stuck with C. Jones for the rest of his contract – the most expensive bat in their lineup by a mile will never be healthy enough to play in 150 games and hit 30-100-.300 ever again for the life of his contract, plus is a zero at 3B – the Braves will never win a division while he is wearing our colors.
That’s how costly a mistake re-signing Jones long term is. His desire to retire a Brave will cost this organization dearly.
Steve from OH
September 6th, 2009
11:56 pm
Here’s an example of such a table from 2005:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/expected_runs_matrix2005.premium.php
The numbers from other years do not vary significantly, and the trends hold as far as I’ve investigated. This is also the basis for why stolen bases are overrated.
jcfromut
September 6th, 2009
11:57 pm
Lowe is going to be paid the same amount wheather as the closer or a starter. he might as well be used in a way that would best benefit the team.
The A Bomb
September 6th, 2009
11:57 pm
Oh BTW when Nixon stole 6 bases against Montreal in 1991 Braves lost that game.
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 6th, 2009
11:57 pm
Steve from OH,
All I have to say is playing small ball all the time is going to create more runs than praying for a 3 run homer…
long time reader
September 6th, 2009
11:58 pm
Fill in the blanks:
The Braves __________
Bobby Cox _____________
Chipper__________________
Greg Norton ________________
Steve from OH
September 6th, 2009
11:58 pm
An example of how the run-expected matrix is used for stolen base calculations from Baseball Prospectus:
Think of stealing bases as a bit like one of those commercials for breakfast cereal. You know, the ones where they say it takes 14 bowls of Cereal X to equal what you get from one bowl of Cereal Y. In this case, it takes three stolen bases to equal one walk of shame back to the dugout. If you’re stealing at less than a 75% success rate, you’re better off never going at all.
Consider the run-expectation table from 2003:
Bases Outs
0 1 2
————————————
empty 0.5219 0.2783 0.1083
1st 0.9116 0.5348 0.2349
2nd 1.1811 0.7125 0.3407
1st 2nd 1.5384 0.9092 0.4430
3rd 1.3734 1.0303 0.3848
1st 3rd 1.8807 1.2043 0.5223
2nd 3rd 2.0356 1.4105 0.5515
1st 2nd 3rd 2.4366 1.5250 0.7932
A runner on first with no one out is worth .9116 runs. A successful steal of second base with no one out would bump that to 1.1811 runs, a gain of .2695 expected runs. If that runner is caught, however, the expectation–now with one out and no one on base–drops to .2783, a loss of .6333 expected runs. That loss is about 2.3 times the gain.
I hope this shows up in the right format, but in any case, here’s the full text:
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2607
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 6th, 2009
11:59 pm
Lowe is going to be paid the same amount wheather as the closer or a starter. he might as well be used in a way that would best benefit the team.
Good idea, but never going to happen…
long time reader
September 6th, 2009
11:59 pm
A Bomb
They’re still looking for the 1st base line from that game, too!
Steve from OH
September 6th, 2009
11:59 pm
All I have to say is playing small ball all the time is going to create more runs than praying for a 3 run homer…
And the numbers say you are wrong. That’s all I have to say.
nolie
September 7th, 2009
12:00 am
what the Angels are doing isn’t small ball. They lead the majors in batting average, have the second highest OBP, above average isolated power, and the third highest OPS in the majors (BH)
finally ! an intelligent post. Is this kiddie night?
MiaBchBravesFan
September 7th, 2009
12:01 am
Fill in the blanks:
The Braves __________ need a lineup enema.
Bobby Cox _____________ may need to retire.
Chipper__________________ must defer more and leave.
Greg Norton ________________ SUCKS!!!
P. W. Hjort
September 7th, 2009
12:02 am
RHR
Where’s MFIKY?
Probably playing for the Cubs. And the Braves got the Cubs 1st round pick for it!
And Gonzo?
Also elsewhere, also netting the Braves a 1st/2nd round pick.
Who is the closer? You must be thinking KK since you have his 8 million dollar salary in the pen?
Sunk cost fallacy. You use your pieces the best way you can regardless of salary allocation once you’re committed to them. I was thinking Moylan, Kawakami, and Kimbrel could handle the duties throughout the year, though.
And who is Craig Kimbrel?
One of the Braves’ best prospects. He started the year at High-A, got demoted to Rome, went back to high-A, got promoted to AA, and is now on his 4th MiLB team this season with Gwinnett. He should be making his MLB debut at some point in 2010. He features a mid-90’s fastball that sits 92-95 but he has touched triple digits and a power slider that scouts figure is a true out pitch right now. So far he has a 157-to-58 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 94 and 1/3 minor league innings with a 2.00 ERA.
And why would we pay KJ 4 million dollars again?
Kelly Johnson WAR by year:
2005 – 1.7
2007 – 3.1
2008 – 2.1
2009 – 0.6
Clubs paid ~$4.5 million per WAR in 2008. I’m far from ready to give up on Kelly Johnson. He’s a good player who has stumbled on some bad BABIP luck this year, but he’s still very capable of contributing to a MLB team. And I still believe he’s more than a 1 win player. That’s all he has to do to be more than worth his salary.
And where was I when Schafer transformed himself into an MLB CF’er while spending the season on the DL?
Well, you’re right. There’s not much evidence that Schafer is ready for MLB. So you use McLouth in center and Church/Diaz in left until he is. Though I think if he has another good spring he’ll be given another shot. In the same breath I say there’s no evidence he’s MLB-ready, there’s also no evidence that he’s not MLB-ready. So I won’t rule out the possibility that Schafer starts out the year with the big club. Or starts in the minors. Either way, the team is equipped to get by with or without the presence of Schafer.
Why would we voluntarily cut payroll?
So we can spend on the draft and have flexibility to add payroll mid-season.
Rock On........
September 7th, 2009
12:02 am
When you put up FOUR freakin runs in 3 games against the Reds that is small ball enough for me.
Roman Gal
September 7th, 2009
12:02 am
Is this kiddie night? nolie
Maybe we should start sharing bedtime stories.
jeffrey d
September 7th, 2009
12:02 am
How are people so sure that Lowe will be lights out as a closer?
Jurrjens4NLCY
September 7th, 2009
12:02 am
Steve from OH,
What does that have to do with bunting?
Chop Chop
September 7th, 2009
12:05 am
One of the problems that statheads run into is the absolute arrogance that some take in their beliefs. Statheads who permeate blogs like this one don’t put the numbers together. They do not compile the stats. When statheads on such blogs quote some stats as Gospel truth, they drive people damn near insane. I understand why people get completely frustrated with some nerd shoving numbers in their faces and telling them that their viewpoint is incompatible with the numbers. It’s annoying. I like to check out stats. I like the defensive metrics. I think many of the offensive metrics are overkill. I think the people that quote them are looking for a reason to pass themselves off as some erudite baseball connoisseur. Unfortunately, many of those people just come across as pompous asses who are merely a rung or two below Lentz on the Prick-O-Meter.