I don’t know how to describe Kawakami. He looks so hittable but somehow pitches effectively. And he’s been doing it for a good stretch now so it can’t be written off as opponents unfamiliarity with him.
Where are you getting 75%????? EVERYTHING I’ve heard from television commentary, and from something I read from Dr. James Andews says the success rate, as of the last few years, is around or even a little better than 90%.
Again, if you’re so certain that Hudson is likely to fall on his face or have his arm fall off, I’m willing to wager. I’m very confident in the odds.
Vazquez over the last three seasons: 117 ERA+, 9.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9
Hudson over the last three seasons: 112 ERA+, 5.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9
Pretty close (except Vazquez dominated in strikeout rate and Vazquez pitched home games in homer-friendly Chicago for a couple of those years) and Vazquez isn’t coming off major surgery.
I know a choice doesn’t have to be made between these two pitchers but the point is Vazquez is just as likely to be a “top-of-the-rotation guy” as Hudson if not more so.
DAP-I’m not sold on either Bay or Holliday. They both have played in nothing but hitter friendly parks and have a history of streakiness. I wouldn’t go that route. I’d prefer getting a younger guy with some speed (wish we could have picked up Nyjer Morgan with McLouth)-maybe someone who could bat leadoff, letting us put Nate lower in the order.
I’m still not sold on Schafer, either. He was extremely disappointing, though I was NOTin favor of him being up yet and with his wrist issue, I wonder if he’ll even be ready early next year. I’d really like to have a back up plan.
The situation with Hudson is both a blessing and a curse. I think this how it will all play out. I think Wren will first try to shop Vasquez. I think he will likely try to fill the void of close and a power hitter with the trade. If he can’t get a solid return for Vasquez, I think he will then look very hard at taking Hudson’s buyout at $1 mil because that would still free up $11 mil.
The other option will be to keep both Hudson and Vasquez and likely place KK in the pen.
Here is the other problem the Braves will have. Do they take the money from Gonzales and Soriano and attempt to sign LaRoche, which might or might not be enough to sign him? Do they take that money and try to resign either Gonzalez or Soriano? Or do they take that money and sign a cheap “stop gap” at 1B and pocket the rest of the money until a later time? Or even perhaps do they pocket all the money at use either Prado or Diaz @ 1B or even Canizares for that sake until Freeman is ready which could be after May of next year or even 2011 if the “stop gap” works.
That ST injury must have affected JS considerably. It’s taking quite a bit to get it healed up. Be interesting to see what’s he like on the rebound.
And for the LWJ Jr. haters, that oblique has effectively taken away his hitting abilities high in the strike zone. He needs to shut it down and come back next year. That’s going to take considerable time to heal. But of course, he won’t and the BRAVES won’t. He’ll play – hurt. And he’ll continue to hit like it.
Shaun, my last post on this subject got buried on the last page, but…
Vazquez will have substantial trade value this winter. He could be dealt for a big bat. But if we let Hudson walk, we get nothing. AND we have no assurance that he won’t sign with a division rival. So the real choice isn’t “Hudson or Vazquez”.
The REAL choice is this:
Tim Hudson + a BIG bat + control over where Vazquez is dealt (not Phili or NY)
OR
Javier Vazquez
If it were a simple choice between Vazquez and Hudson, I might take Vazquez as well (though it’d be a tough call), but given ALL the factors here… the first option just makes a hell of a lot more sense.
DOB or anybody who knows, my wife and I recently purchased a small RV. We would like to know if there is parking for RV on premises, and would they allow you to stay overnight? Thanks to anybody who knows.
August 21st, 2009
7:47 am
Kevin, meet Mitchell. Mitchell, Kevin.
(OK, that’s a little harsh. But Mitchell, my man, I don’t know what beverages you were drinking last night, but you were getting a bit over the top by midnight…. As for Kevin, I honestly read your 6:59 post twice and still don’t really know what it was about.)
This is what happens when you criticize the supposedly important, hip indie rock band of the moment.
Kevin repeatedly calls Bobby Cox a wife beater. I point out how derivative and unoriginal Kings of Leon are. Totally the same. Equally reprehensible.
Maybe Kevin was “drinking”, but I wasn’t. Sorry for having an opinion.
For the record, I don’t ever call Garrett Anderson “Loaf” or Brian “Heap”, not that that’s a negative nickname, or Bobby Cox “Booby”, which is, not to mention a wife beater which is comment that is used far too casually on the blog.
Have I said he should be fired? Yes. But do I call him names and attack his character? No.
Am I glad Kelly got his swing back? Yes. Is he still the worst defensive second baseman in the league? Yes to that also.
Lew, Morgan is a rich man’s Gregor Blanco. He doesn’t have enough power to be all that valuable as an everyday player, even an everyday centerfielder. And at 28, he’s not likely to get any better. His career OPS+ is 103, which means he’s basically a league-average hitter.
Not saying Morgan isn’t a decent player but outfielders like him are a dime a dozen.
Jeeze ANDERS. The owner of LIBERTY MEDIA. The 486th richest man in the world. He took a pounding with RITE-AID before this recent financial melt-down, and now in the stock market.
Oh, Crawford would be an excellent pickup for the Braves, but I don’t see it happening. For one the Braves would only have $12 or so mil to play with and I think Crawford will get more than that even in this market. Two, I don’t think the Braves would want to sign him to a long term contract which he will be looking for. And, three, I think Wren is intent on having Schaefer in the lineup next year as well as Hewyard at some point.
sidskid We are everywhere. I’m sure there are other closet Marlin fans here too. How can you not root for a team that competes consisntently with the pay roll of a vegatble stand?
DOB or anybody who knows, my wife and I recently purchased a small RV. We would like to know if there is parking for RV on premises, and would they allow you to stay overnight? Thanks to anybody who knows. (CB)
Fish Bisch- Exactly waht dos Loria do with the $$$ that he gets in luxury taxes. Many have no respect for them because they are constantly tearing down and starting anew. Anyway, I guess they are a cute, little story for the media.
But if we let Hudson walk, we get nothing. AND we have no assurance that he won’t sign with a division rival.
KC, the Braves save money if they let Hudson walk so the premise that they get nothing is false. And that money can be used on upgrades elsewhere. Plus he’s coming off a major injury and his performance over the last three seasons isn’t any better than what the Braves already have in guys like Vazquez.
sidskid We are everywhere. I’m sure there are other closet Marlin fans here too. How can you not root for a team that competes consisntently with the pay roll of a vegatble stand?
Actually, the Marlins compete every 6 years. But, I do give them props for how they come back to life by rebuilding their system within that time frame. If only the “closet” fans would come out and appreciate it too.
Here’s the twist on Hudson. If he pitches really well the Braves may very well decide to keep him. However, he might decide that he could get a better contract elsewhere. So why he’s saying now that he wants the Braves to re-up him that could very well change once his agent gets a sniff of the market for him. Now the Braves could extend him but…
money is one thing that wont be an issue at all for the braves this offseason. even before they make a decision on huddy or vazquez, they have around $16mil coming off the books. once you factor in saving $11 on either hudson or vazquez (some assumptions there, but lets go for it) thats $27mil available to sign a closer, a first baseman, and a “stop gap” outfielder. i think we will be fine.
Shaun-Time will tell on Morgan, but I feel he has more upside than Blanco, who I always believed was a totally marginal player anyway. He’s faster than Blanco, though and a much better defensive player, too.
RichBrave-Haven’t given up on Schafer yet, but I’m a lot less certain of him than I was last spring. Hope it IS just the injury and it heals soon. We still need s a stop gap in the outfield though. I haven’t been exactly bowled over by McLouth either, if the truth be known Maybe it’s because he’s leading off-I don’t know. However, he has disappointed, too.
For one the Braves would only have $12 or so mil to play with and I think Crawford will get more than that even in this market.
I’m pretty sure Crawford is NOT a free agent after this season for one. Second, who says the Braves only have $12 million or so to play with? Three, is Crawford really likely to be much better than a much cheaper player? Crawford’s combined OPS+ over this season and last is 105, and those should be his peak seasons. That’s a little misleading because I think Crawford adds a lot in the field and on the bases. But is he better than someone like McLouth by all that wide a margin over the next few seasons?
Why are some of you acting like Tim Hudson is FINISHED just b/c he’s coming off TJ surgery? I know plenty of guys who have came back from that procedure and continued to pitch to the same level or better than before. I know…one of them used to pitch here…JOHN SMOLTZ.
If I had a dollar for everytime I read a blog entry where someone sounded like a scared child with a post like “OMG, I don’t know…Hudson coming off that Tommy John Surgery…I’m scared that it’s such a big risk…blah, blah, blah”. Just get over it already and let’s see what the guy has left. What’s with all the fraking skepticism around here about the guy’s ability to come back and pitch effectively?
KC,
Don’t forget that there is the possiblity of having Kenshin Kawakami traded this off-season, if for whatever reason Wren doesn’t find the right deal for Javy Vazquez. I believe KK could be traded to the Mariners in the off-season, they would take him, as they are in complete rebuilding mode and he’s a cheap option for their rotation which doesn’t have much from Felix Hernadez and Erik Bedard (FA).
DAP, I don’t doubt your figues but where do you get the Braves will have $16 mil coming off the books. I know they’ll have about $10 from Gonzo or Soriano but where will the rest be. Don’t forget that McCann, Chipper and McLouth will be getting paid more. Not to mention the raies of arb eligible players such as Diaz, KJ and Moylan.
RCIB-Well, they won’t be paying Francoeur $5 mil or so and they won’t be paying that much to Kotchman, either-should at least pay to resign Roachy to a club friendly contract or a couple years.. As to Diaz and KJ-you sure they’ll be here next year? I wouldn’t count on it-Kelly, anyway.
Shaun-Time will tell on Morgan, but I feel he has more upside than Blanco, who I always believed was a totally marginal player anyway. He’s faster than Blanco, though and a much better defensive player, too.
Time will tell? Upside? I know he seems young because he hasn’t been around all that long but Morgan is 28. This is as good as he gets. I agree, he’s better than Blanco; maybe it was a mistake to bring Blanco into the discussion. What I’m saying is Morgan is no better than maybe a slightly-above-average player. He shouldn’t really excite anyone.
Something to think about…Braves are already without their lead off hitter in McLouth, we don’t know when Prado our 2nd hitter will be back…and now Anderson our middle of the lineup guy could be out as well.
Not good timing for those key players to be missing games.
Which means, Infante, Church and Diaz have to keep playing well.
Wait, I’ll call my wife’s first cousin. They just built a 20 million summer shack next to “BIG PAPI” and JACK NICKLAUS down in the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. Nice visit. I’ll check with them and see how LIBERTY’s doing financially.
Jack Nicklaus lives next to Big Papi in the DR? Now there’s a sight. How long before the Golden Bear starts spiiting into his golf glove before every shot?
Supes-It’s not a matter of whether or not Hudson will ever come back to what he once was, but when that might be. He’s only signed for this option year and if you go back and look at Smoltz’s return from his TJ surgery, he wasn’t effective until June and even then it was as closer. So, in essence, for that $12 mil option you will get a pitcher likely not to be back to strength til at least a third of the season is shot and who is not signed past 2010.
Or you can go with Vazquez, who has put up at least en wins in ten consecutive seasons, is coming off of his best ever season and is a lock to make all of his starts (based on the past) and pitch at least 200 innings.
It’s a matter of who can give you the bigger bang for your buck from the very start of 2010. Vazquez is much more a certainty to do that than Hudson is.
Mitchell, don’t judge Kings of Leon by their most recent album – though I really like it. Check out their other 3 albums. They’re a band that you can really see progressing. Give the song “Molly Chambers” a listen. The synthesizers didn’t really come in tell the recent album. Before that, straight ahead rock n roll.
Lew, that is true but don’t forget that Chruch was getting about as much as Frenchy and I would bet he is on the team next season. I agree that KJ will likely be traded. Also, I would think Diaz would still be here unless Mr. Gorecki can show he can play at this level in which case I suppose he could join Church as backup outfielders. I mean I suppose he would join Infante and a yet to be determined infielder and Ross on the bench. It would be nice if Diory Hernandez could hit major league pitching because the Braves could just place him on the bench at the league minimum.
Shaun-Wasn’t talking about making him cornerstone of the franchise or anything, but that speed would be nice at the top of the order and the Dude is a hellacious defensive player for a year or so until Heyward and Schafer (or whomever) are ready.. Morgan sure has energized that Nationals’ offense. I’d also bring in Otis Nixon or Deoin and teach him how to be amjore productive basestealer.
shaunI’m pretty sure Crawford is NOT a free agent after this season for one.
he could be. rays have an option. and, i think that his skills do make him a very good option for the braves…he wont slug as high as some guys, but the fact that he puts himself in scoring position 50 times a year negates that. he is a .300 hitter with a good enough OBP to make him definitely worth taking a look at. (i dont know how much the braves would have to give him, but id think they would need to consider him if he gets bought out)
I’m gonna head out to the ole ballpark this afternoon to see vasquez and the Braves hopefully put another W in the win column. maybe the fireworks wont get rained out
RCIB-Wouldn’t it be great if Ryan Church became the player he was envisioned as being before those concussions? Wouldn’t that take care of the problem? A .285 hitter with a good OBP and 20 HR’s would help immensely, especially if we re-signed Roachy, wouldn’t it?
Soph, you could just be right about. Notice how, well at least for MF4Life and Fish Bisch, you could turn those names into something he didn’t mean them to be? I mean MF, come on and Bisch.
Good point. Letting [Hudson] walk could essentially be like trading him.
Except that, of course, it isn’t, LOL. Your “trade” pool is then restricted to FAs only. Unless you want to let him walk, throw in a few prospects, and then make a trade for a non-FA. Lew will tell you that scenario is just as good.
CNNSI did a report on the top set-up men in baseball and Gonzo ranked 4th claiming that he is ready to test the waters of free agancy in the offseason. My thinking is if the Braves F.O. wanted to resign him they would’ve done so already…
Suoes-You aren’t the only one who disagrees with me. Not a problem. Hey-I could make a case for it going either (or any) way. Another case of time telling.
What really makes me leary (I know it’s misspelled, but here’s a shout out to Dr, Tim on the 40thanniversary of Woodstock and expanded minds) about exercising Hudson’s option is that he will proably only pitch about 20-25 innings this September (IF he comes back as scheduled and we’ve already had setbacks). We will have to exercise his option very early in the off season and I’m just not comfortable with throwing $12 mil in his direction absed on so few innings back.
robertI know they’ll have about $10 from Gonzo or Soriano but where will the rest be. Don’t forget that McCann, Chipper and McLouth will be getting paid more.
just some approximate numbers: soriano $6.3mil, gonzalez $3.4mil (these you already mentioned) then there is garret anderson $2.5mil, greg norton $.8mil and since the red sox are paying part of laroche’s salary, it will basically be like kotchman’s $2.8mil is coming off. all that equals $15.8mil, and since i rounded down to make it easier to add up, i just decided to say “about $16mil.”
as for the raises, i didnt take time to try and figure out what those will be, so your right about that, but still, we have $27mil coming off to work with. money is not an issue for the braves.
CB – I wouldn’t trust Fish Bi*ch. He’s a marlins fan and would probably love to see a Braves fan get in trouble. Wait for a REAL Braves fan to answer your question.
Championship teams are made by having the right average player(s) in their lineup. Only the Yankees can afford to have a star at every position in their lineup, and that hasn’t turned out so well lately either. It is the Billy Martins, Bucky Dents, and Mark Lemkes that often show up big in the playoffs. After inserting Morgan in the leadoff role and with his defense in CF, the Nats have gone from woeful to dangerous.
scoots-And even if it IS in December, it will give Hudson no more time to prove how good he is, unless he goes to Winter Ball. They going to take the chance he’ll be injured again? Again-they will have 20-25 innings pitched against ML hitters to tell if he’s worth that $12 mil.
A nice quote from Stan Kasten (about Mike Rizzo’s strengths/weaknesses). I can’t say I feel very differently from this:
But Mike has worked really hard on some areas that he identified today. Mike has become much more adept Sabermetrically — he even uses that word in our meetings — than he would have thought a year ago. He identified that as something he’d like to step up in, and he happened to have on his staff a pretty good crop of people, a pretty good set of resources to help him with that. So he was quite diligent about becoming fluent in that part of the world. As you know, his background is eyeball scouting, which I continue to think is the single most important thing. But it’s 60-40. It’s not 90-10. The other Sabermetric part of the world is very, very important, increasingly. I don’t think it’s ever going to replace eyeball scouting. I think it will always be a mistake to scout by statistics. You will never be able to dispense with eyeball scouting. And I will tell you in fact behind the scenes, it was the eyeball scouting that led us to Nyjer Morgan. We did a fair amount of sabermetric analysis, but it was what the people on the ground were saying that made that so important for us.
For the first time in 4 years, the Braves are legitimately in a playoff race and this blog is obsessed with what we might do in the off-season! Cox hasn’t done anything in 2 days to bring out any calls for his head, and nobody except Chipper has played badly enough to warrant calls for him to be traded, DFAed, or sent to Siberia.
Should Chipper be rested (or moved down in the order) until his oblique is better?
Should we go with a 6-man rotation when (if) Hudson returns in Sept.
Who should be called up in Sept. and which of these may help us in the stretch run?
Just a few more immediate concerns we might talk about.
Tomahawkin’ – where in the Gonzo blurb is it “claiming that he is ready to test the waters of free agancy”? It states the he is a 2010 free agent. Nothing more.
Chipper and calls for his head – err guy is in a short term slump, but if he is as putrid as all think why is he still leading us in OPS etc. I will take a putrid Chipper as long as he starts fielding and throwing well. He will get HOTTTTTTTT with the timber again soon
Eware, Agree completely on your Kings of Leon comment. If you listen to the radio they come off as cheesy because they play their 2 cheesiest songs on the radio. They would agree with you that sex on fire is cheesy even though it won best song. I like their new album but is definitely more synthesized but their earlier albums are great southern rock
Pure Speculation…That’s all, I’m highly suprised that there has not been any ongoing negotiations with him during the season. I guess the Braves F.O. will wait til the offseason. With that said he will be one of the top relief arms on the market and expect him to command a B.J. Ryan type contract…
Tomahawkin – it’s not really the M.O. of the Braves to extend a reliever mid-season, is it? They also don’t give big contracts to relievers, and for good reason. Maybe a two-year deal, like Soriano’s, but that’s about it.
Looking at the pitching matchups this weekend, Braves have a very real chance to go 2-1 or 3-0 in this series. For whatever reason, they Braves have not peformed well against the Fish this year….they need to get it together this weekend.
You have to figure that the 4-game series between Colorado and San Fran this weekend (and Monday) will yield at least 1 loss for the Rocks (Lincecum) and hopefully 2 or 3. Being consesrvative, a 2-1 series win for the Braves and a 2-2 series split for the Rocks/Giants would put the Braves 3.5 out Tuesday morning when they begin their series with the Padres. The Rocks do have the Dodgers in their next series…so, the Braves have to continue winning series (hopefully going 5-1 in their next 6 games).
Championship teams are made by having the right average player(s) in their lineup. Only the Yankees can afford to have a star at every position in their lineup, and that hasn’t turned out so well lately either. It is the Billy Martins, Bucky Dents, and Mark Lemkes that often show up big in the playoffs. After inserting Morgan in the leadoff role and with his defense in CF, the Nats have gone from woeful to dangerous.
Jim, the point is not that guys like Morgan are average and therefore shouldn’t be on championship teams. The point is can a team acquire a player similar to Morgan that is younger, cheaper and wouldn’t require a team to give up as much?
I’m sure there are enough poeple on here “in the know” who can give me some degree of what the success rate for Tommy John surgery is and who has had it but never really came back from it to pitch anywhere like they used to. Is it a high probability that Hudson comes back and pitches well, what are the percentages that he won’t?? Any ideas?
1,727 comments Add your comment
Soph
August 21st, 2009
10:49 am
You’re welcome, bravesgrl4life.
By the way, Fish Bisch = metsfan4life & philliesphanphorliphe, no? Maybe not since he doesn’t have the 4life/phorliphe thing going on.
6-4-3
August 21st, 2009
10:49 am
I don’t know how to describe Kawakami. He looks so hittable but somehow pitches effectively. And he’s been doing it for a good stretch now so it can’t be written off as opponents unfamiliarity with him.
KC
August 21st, 2009
10:49 am
Where are you getting 75%????? EVERYTHING I’ve heard from television commentary, and from something I read from Dr. James Andews says the success rate, as of the last few years, is around or even a little better than 90%.
Again, if you’re so certain that Hudson is likely to fall on his face or have his arm fall off, I’m willing to wager. I’m very confident in the odds.
Shaun
August 21st, 2009
10:50 am
Vazquez over the last three seasons: 117 ERA+, 9.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9
Hudson over the last three seasons: 112 ERA+, 5.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9
Pretty close (except Vazquez dominated in strikeout rate and Vazquez pitched home games in homer-friendly Chicago for a couple of those years) and Vazquez isn’t coming off major surgery.
I know a choice doesn’t have to be made between these two pitchers but the point is Vazquez is just as likely to be a “top-of-the-rotation guy” as Hudson if not more so.
richbrave
August 21st, 2009
10:50 am
MELTSFAN4LIFE:
SHEFF did great last night? Wasn’t that a whiff against GONZO in the eighth when it counted? Oh, sorry. I’m just tryin’ to styr some shyt.
Lew
August 21st, 2009
10:51 am
DAP-I’m not sold on either Bay or Holliday. They both have played in nothing but hitter friendly parks and have a history of streakiness. I wouldn’t go that route. I’d prefer getting a younger guy with some speed (wish we could have picked up Nyjer Morgan with McLouth)-maybe someone who could bat leadoff, letting us put Nate lower in the order.
I’m still not sold on Schafer, either. He was extremely disappointing, though I was NOTin favor of him being up yet and with his wrist issue, I wonder if he’ll even be ready early next year. I’d really like to have a back up plan.
KC
August 21st, 2009
10:51 am
6-4-3: “He looks so hittable but somehow pitches effectively.”
Wow… that sounds familiar. Seems like those words have been spoken about a couple of Braves pitchers in years past! =)
richbrave
August 21st, 2009
10:51 am
6-4-3:
I understand that was his mantra in JAPAN too.
SRF
August 21st, 2009
10:51 am
I still like Chipper – but dang he is in a fog this week !
Anders
August 21st, 2009
10:52 am
Rich Brave- I don’t understand the JOHN MALONE comments? Might be sarcasm, might be real. Sorry I’m lost.
Robert (Chipper Is The Best)
August 21st, 2009
10:55 am
The situation with Hudson is both a blessing and a curse. I think this how it will all play out. I think Wren will first try to shop Vasquez. I think he will likely try to fill the void of close and a power hitter with the trade. If he can’t get a solid return for Vasquez, I think he will then look very hard at taking Hudson’s buyout at $1 mil because that would still free up $11 mil.
The other option will be to keep both Hudson and Vasquez and likely place KK in the pen.
Here is the other problem the Braves will have. Do they take the money from Gonzales and Soriano and attempt to sign LaRoche, which might or might not be enough to sign him? Do they take that money and try to resign either Gonzalez or Soriano? Or do they take that money and sign a cheap “stop gap” at 1B and pocket the rest of the money until a later time? Or even perhaps do they pocket all the money at use either Prado or Diaz @ 1B or even Canizares for that sake until Freeman is ready which could be after May of next year or even 2011 if the “stop gap” works.
Lots of things for Wren to think over.
DAP
August 21st, 2009
10:56 am
lew, if carl crawford gets bought out, he would be a great sign for the leadoff position.
richbrave
August 21st, 2009
10:57 am
LEW:
That ST injury must have affected JS considerably. It’s taking quite a bit to get it healed up. Be interesting to see what’s he like on the rebound.
And for the LWJ Jr. haters, that oblique has effectively taken away his hitting abilities high in the strike zone. He needs to shut it down and come back next year. That’s going to take considerable time to heal. But of course, he won’t and the BRAVES won’t. He’ll play – hurt. And he’ll continue to hit like it.
sidslidkid
August 21st, 2009
10:57 am
@ Fish Bisch:
Wooooow a Marlin’s fan sighting!
KC
August 21st, 2009
10:57 am
Shaun, my last post on this subject got buried on the last page, but…
Vazquez will have substantial trade value this winter. He could be dealt for a big bat. But if we let Hudson walk, we get nothing. AND we have no assurance that he won’t sign with a division rival. So the real choice isn’t “Hudson or Vazquez”.
The REAL choice is this:
Tim Hudson + a BIG bat + control over where Vazquez is dealt (not Phili or NY)
OR
Javier Vazquez
If it were a simple choice between Vazquez and Hudson, I might take Vazquez as well (though it’d be a tough call), but given ALL the factors here… the first option just makes a hell of a lot more sense.
CB
August 21st, 2009
10:58 am
DOB or anybody who knows, my wife and I recently purchased a small RV. We would like to know if there is parking for RV on premises, and would they allow you to stay overnight? Thanks to anybody who knows.
sidslidkid
August 21st, 2009
10:59 am
@ Fish Bisch:
I had heard Marlin’s Fans exist, but I’ve never actually seen or talked to one. Call Monster Quest!
Mitchell
August 21st, 2009
11:00 am
David O’Brien
August 21st, 2009
7:47 am
Kevin, meet Mitchell. Mitchell, Kevin.
(OK, that’s a little harsh. But Mitchell, my man, I don’t know what beverages you were drinking last night, but you were getting a bit over the top by midnight…. As for Kevin, I honestly read your 6:59 post twice and still don’t really know what it was about.)
This is what happens when you criticize the supposedly important, hip indie rock band of the moment.
Kevin repeatedly calls Bobby Cox a wife beater. I point out how derivative and unoriginal Kings of Leon are. Totally the same. Equally reprehensible.
Maybe Kevin was “drinking”, but I wasn’t. Sorry for having an opinion.
For the record, I don’t ever call Garrett Anderson “Loaf” or Brian “Heap”, not that that’s a negative nickname, or Bobby Cox “Booby”, which is, not to mention a wife beater which is comment that is used far too casually on the blog.
Have I said he should be fired? Yes. But do I call him names and attack his character? No.
Am I glad Kelly got his swing back? Yes. Is he still the worst defensive second baseman in the league? Yes to that also.
See, opinions. Feel free to have them.
Shamus Thacker
August 21st, 2009
11:01 am
Heading out door to search for Greg (Ed) Norton Voodoo Doll. Damn thing walked on me.
Baba O'Riley
August 21st, 2009
11:01 am
braves70 10:35. That post was as funny as a kick in the nutz.
Shaun
August 21st, 2009
11:02 am
Lew, Morgan is a rich man’s Gregor Blanco. He doesn’t have enough power to be all that valuable as an everyday player, even an everyday centerfielder. And at 28, he’s not likely to get any better. His career OPS+ is 103, which means he’s basically a league-average hitter.
Not saying Morgan isn’t a decent player but outfielders like him are a dime a dozen.
richbrave
August 21st, 2009
11:02 am
ANDERS:
Jeeze ANDERS. The owner of LIBERTY MEDIA. The 486th richest man in the world. He took a pounding with RITE-AID before this recent financial melt-down, and now in the stock market.
Robert (Chipper Is The Best)
August 21st, 2009
11:03 am
Oh, Crawford would be an excellent pickup for the Braves, but I don’t see it happening. For one the Braves would only have $12 or so mil to play with and I think Crawford will get more than that even in this market. Two, I don’t think the Braves would want to sign him to a long term contract which he will be looking for. And, three, I think Wren is intent on having Schaefer in the lineup next year as well as Hewyard at some point.
Fish Bisch
August 21st, 2009
11:03 am
sidskid We are everywhere. I’m sure there are other closet Marlin fans here too. How can you not root for a team that competes consisntently with the pay roll of a vegatble stand?
Anders
August 21st, 2009
11:03 am
DOB or anybody who knows, my wife and I recently purchased a small RV. We would like to know if there is parking for RV on premises, and would they allow you to stay overnight? Thanks to anybody who knows. (CB)
Cousin Eddie, is that you?
Baba O'Riley
August 21st, 2009
11:03 am
I live in SoFla, and Marlins fans are rare here as well. They have to get the Village People in town to “pack” their stadium with 20,000 people.
John
August 21st, 2009
11:04 am
Thanks for the response DOB!!
richbrave
August 21st, 2009
11:05 am
SHAMUS T:
Loved the “HONEYMOONERS” huh?
Baba O'Riley
August 21st, 2009
11:05 am
Fish Bisch- Exactly waht dos Loria do with the $$$ that he gets in luxury taxes. Many have no respect for them because they are constantly tearing down and starting anew. Anyway, I guess they are a cute, little story for the media.
Shaun
August 21st, 2009
11:05 am
But if we let Hudson walk, we get nothing. AND we have no assurance that he won’t sign with a division rival.
KC, the Braves save money if they let Hudson walk so the premise that they get nothing is false. And that money can be used on upgrades elsewhere. Plus he’s coming off a major injury and his performance over the last three seasons isn’t any better than what the Braves already have in guys like Vazquez.
Anders
August 21st, 2009
11:05 am
RichBrave – Sorry for not knowing that but I don’t take on any clients that aren’t in the top 250.
Didn’t realize the Braves were slumming it!
CB
August 21st, 2009
11:06 am
Funny Anders, never a member of a Mets family. Of course, most of them live on the street.
Fish Bisch
August 21st, 2009
11:06 am
CB- anywhere on henry aaron drive is acceptable. there are always lots of RVs there.
Soph
August 21st, 2009
11:07 am
sidskid We are everywhere. I’m sure there are other closet Marlin fans here too. How can you not root for a team that competes consisntently with the pay roll of a vegatble stand?
Actually, the Marlins compete every 6 years. But, I do give them props for how they come back to life by rebuilding their system within that time frame. If only the “closet” fans would come out and appreciate it too.
Mitchell
August 21st, 2009
11:07 am
Oh, I forgot to say… “give me a f***ing break.”
Anders
August 21st, 2009
11:08 am
Here’s the twist on Hudson. If he pitches really well the Braves may very well decide to keep him. However, he might decide that he could get a better contract elsewhere. So why he’s saying now that he wants the Braves to re-up him that could very well change once his agent gets a sniff of the market for him. Now the Braves could extend him but…
In other words, much to early to worry about.
DAP
August 21st, 2009
11:09 am
robert(chipper is best)
money is one thing that wont be an issue at all for the braves this offseason. even before they make a decision on huddy or vazquez, they have around $16mil coming off the books. once you factor in saving $11 on either hudson or vazquez (some assumptions there, but lets go for it) thats $27mil available to sign a closer, a first baseman, and a “stop gap” outfielder. i think we will be fine.
Lew
August 21st, 2009
11:10 am
Shaun-Time will tell on Morgan, but I feel he has more upside than Blanco, who I always believed was a totally marginal player anyway. He’s faster than Blanco, though and a much better defensive player, too.
RichBrave-Haven’t given up on Schafer yet, but I’m a lot less certain of him than I was last spring. Hope it IS just the injury and it heals soon. We still need s a stop gap in the outfield though. I haven’t been exactly bowled over by McLouth either, if the truth be known Maybe it’s because he’s leading off-I don’t know. However, he has disappointed, too.
richbrave
August 21st, 2009
11:10 am
ANDERS:
Well, he way above me on the list. How about you ZEKE?
CB
August 21st, 2009
11:10 am
thanks Fish Bisch.
richbrave
August 21st, 2009
11:11 am
LEW:
With you on both counts.
Shaun
August 21st, 2009
11:11 am
For one the Braves would only have $12 or so mil to play with and I think Crawford will get more than that even in this market.
I’m pretty sure Crawford is NOT a free agent after this season for one. Second, who says the Braves only have $12 million or so to play with? Three, is Crawford really likely to be much better than a much cheaper player? Crawford’s combined OPS+ over this season and last is 105, and those should be his peak seasons. That’s a little misleading because I think Crawford adds a lot in the field and on the bases. But is he better than someone like McLouth by all that wide a margin over the next few seasons?
Supes
August 21st, 2009
11:11 am
Just damn,
Why are some of you acting like Tim Hudson is FINISHED just b/c he’s coming off TJ surgery? I know plenty of guys who have came back from that procedure and continued to pitch to the same level or better than before. I know…one of them used to pitch here…JOHN SMOLTZ.
If I had a dollar for everytime I read a blog entry where someone sounded like a scared child with a post like “OMG, I don’t know…Hudson coming off that Tommy John Surgery…I’m scared that it’s such a big risk…blah, blah, blah”. Just get over it already and let’s see what the guy has left. What’s with all the fraking skepticism around here about the guy’s ability to come back and pitch effectively?
KC,
Don’t forget that there is the possiblity of having Kenshin Kawakami traded this off-season, if for whatever reason Wren doesn’t find the right deal for Javy Vazquez. I believe KK could be traded to the Mariners in the off-season, they would take him, as they are in complete rebuilding mode and he’s a cheap option for their rotation which doesn’t have much from Felix Hernadez and Erik Bedard (FA).
sidslidkid
August 21st, 2009
11:12 am
Fish Bisch
August 21st, 2009
11:03 am
“sidskid We are everywhere. ”
Everywhere? Really? Everywhere???
Robert (Chipper Is The Best)
August 21st, 2009
11:12 am
DAP, I don’t doubt your figues but where do you get the Braves will have $16 mil coming off the books. I know they’ll have about $10 from Gonzo or Soriano but where will the rest be. Don’t forget that McCann, Chipper and McLouth will be getting paid more. Not to mention the raies of arb eligible players such as Diaz, KJ and Moylan.
Lew
August 21st, 2009
11:12 am
Fish Bisch-Problem is that the Marlins need some of those fans to come out of their respective closets and go to some ball games.
Soph
August 21st, 2009
11:13 am
Deep breath Mitchell. In and out.
Anders
August 21st, 2009
11:13 am
Richbrave- I haven’t seen him at my club so…..
Lew
August 21st, 2009
11:15 am
RCIB-Well, they won’t be paying Francoeur $5 mil or so and they won’t be paying that much to Kotchman, either-should at least pay to resign Roachy to a club friendly contract or a couple years.. As to Diaz and KJ-you sure they’ll be here next year? I wouldn’t count on it-Kelly, anyway.
Shaun
August 21st, 2009
11:15 am
Shaun-Time will tell on Morgan, but I feel he has more upside than Blanco, who I always believed was a totally marginal player anyway. He’s faster than Blanco, though and a much better defensive player, too.
Time will tell? Upside? I know he seems young because he hasn’t been around all that long but Morgan is 28. This is as good as he gets. I agree, he’s better than Blanco; maybe it was a mistake to bring Blanco into the discussion. What I’m saying is Morgan is no better than maybe a slightly-above-average player. He shouldn’t really excite anyone.
Supes
August 21st, 2009
11:15 am
Something to think about…Braves are already without their lead off hitter in McLouth, we don’t know when Prado our 2nd hitter will be back…and now Anderson our middle of the lineup guy could be out as well.
Not good timing for those key players to be missing games.
Which means, Infante, Church and Diaz have to keep playing well.
richbrave
August 21st, 2009
11:16 am
ANDERS:
Wait, I’ll call my wife’s first cousin. They just built a 20 million summer shack next to “BIG PAPI” and JACK NICKLAUS down in the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. Nice visit. I’ll check with them and see how LIBERTY’s doing financially.
Anders
August 21st, 2009
11:19 am
Jack Nicklaus lives next to Big Papi in the DR? Now there’s a sight. How long before the Golden Bear starts spiiting into his golf glove before every shot?
richbrave
August 21st, 2009
11:19 am
ANDERS:
You should get out more. Such a sheltered life.
Jack
August 21st, 2009
11:19 am
Sorry, ya’ll lost me at an outfield with Cameron Diaz in it.
Lew
August 21st, 2009
11:20 am
Supes-It’s not a matter of whether or not Hudson will ever come back to what he once was, but when that might be. He’s only signed for this option year and if you go back and look at Smoltz’s return from his TJ surgery, he wasn’t effective until June and even then it was as closer. So, in essence, for that $12 mil option you will get a pitcher likely not to be back to strength til at least a third of the season is shot and who is not signed past 2010.
Or you can go with Vazquez, who has put up at least en wins in ten consecutive seasons, is coming off of his best ever season and is a lock to make all of his starts (based on the past) and pitch at least 200 innings.
It’s a matter of who can give you the bigger bang for your buck from the very start of 2010. Vazquez is much more a certainty to do that than Hudson is.
Buffalo NY Braves Fan
August 21st, 2009
11:21 am
wow, Fish Bisch and Man of Teal? 2 Marlin fans in 1 season? I’m shocked….
METSFAN,
You can earn some respect by not being a Troll, and learning something about baseball.
Eware
August 21st, 2009
11:21 am
Mitchell, don’t judge Kings of Leon by their most recent album – though I really like it. Check out their other 3 albums. They’re a band that you can really see progressing. Give the song “Molly Chambers” a listen. The synthesizers didn’t really come in tell the recent album. Before that, straight ahead rock n roll.
Anders
August 21st, 2009
11:21 am
We can go out? These guys in the white jackets told me we couldn’t.
Robert (Chipper Is The Best)
August 21st, 2009
11:23 am
Lew, that is true but don’t forget that Chruch was getting about as much as Frenchy and I would bet he is on the team next season. I agree that KJ will likely be traded. Also, I would think Diaz would still be here unless Mr. Gorecki can show he can play at this level in which case I suppose he could join Church as backup outfielders. I mean I suppose he would join Infante and a yet to be determined infielder and Ross on the bench. It would be nice if Diory Hernandez could hit major league pitching because the Braves could just place him on the bench at the league minimum.
Lew
August 21st, 2009
11:24 am
Shaun-Wasn’t talking about making him cornerstone of the franchise or anything, but that speed would be nice at the top of the order and the Dude is a hellacious defensive player for a year or so until Heyward and Schafer (or whomever) are ready.. Morgan sure has energized that Nationals’ offense. I’d also bring in Otis Nixon or Deoin and teach him how to be amjore productive basestealer.
Supes
August 21st, 2009
11:24 am
Lew,
I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree on the whole Hudson issue.
I
DAP
August 21st, 2009
11:25 am
shaunI’m pretty sure Crawford is NOT a free agent after this season for one.
he could be. rays have an option. and, i think that his skills do make him a very good option for the braves…he wont slug as high as some guys, but the fact that he puts himself in scoring position 50 times a year negates that. he is a .300 hitter with a good enough OBP to make him definitely worth taking a look at. (i dont know how much the braves would have to give him, but id think they would need to consider him if he gets bought out)
bravofan
August 21st, 2009
11:25 am
I’m gonna head out to the ole ballpark this afternoon to see vasquez and the Braves hopefully put another W in the win column. maybe the fireworks wont get rained out
bravofan
August 21st, 2009
11:26 am
I say Huddy help us in the pen!
Anders
August 21st, 2009
11:26 am
Lew- I agree with you on Morgan. I think he’s a useful MLB player. Not a start but could be productive if used right.
Lew
August 21st, 2009
11:26 am
RCIB-Wouldn’t it be great if Ryan Church became the player he was envisioned as being before those concussions? Wouldn’t that take care of the problem? A .285 hitter with a good OBP and 20 HR’s would help immensely, especially if we re-signed Roachy, wouldn’t it?
bravesgrl4life
August 21st, 2009
11:29 am
Soph, you could just be right about. Notice how, well at least for MF4Life and Fish Bisch, you could turn those names into something he didn’t mean them to be? I mean MF, come on and Bisch.
ncscoots
August 21st, 2009
11:30 am
Good point. Letting [Hudson] walk could essentially be like trading him.
Except that, of course, it isn’t, LOL. Your “trade” pool is then restricted to FAs only. Unless you want to let him walk, throw in a few prospects, and then make a trade for a non-FA. Lew will tell you that scenario is just as good.
Tomahawkin
August 21st, 2009
11:30 am
Peep This…!
CNNSI did a report on the top set-up men in baseball and Gonzo ranked 4th claiming that he is ready to test the waters of free agancy in the offseason. My thinking is if the Braves F.O. wanted to resign him they would’ve done so already…
This is not Good!
Here’s the link
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/cliff_corcoran/08/20/setup.men/index.html
Don’t be suprised if Gonzo Sells out to WhineBrenner and the Yankees. Just about every decent reliever the braves have heading into free agency does…
Lew
August 21st, 2009
11:31 am
Suoes-You aren’t the only one who disagrees with me. Not a problem. Hey-I could make a case for it going either (or any) way. Another case of time telling.
What really makes me leary (I know it’s misspelled, but here’s a shout out to Dr, Tim on the 40thanniversary of Woodstock and expanded minds) about exercising Hudson’s option is that he will proably only pitch about 20-25 innings this September (IF he comes back as scheduled and we’ve already had setbacks). We will have to exercise his option very early in the off season and I’m just not comfortable with throwing $12 mil in his direction absed on so few innings back.
Efrim
August 21st, 2009
11:33 am
Not sure if this was posted, but Vazquez has interest in an extension with the Braves:
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2009/08/21/on-fifth-team-in-seven-years-has-javier-vazquez-finally-found-h/
That would be an absolute nightmare for some people here.
Lew
August 21st, 2009
11:33 am
scoots- and you have yet to convince me it’s not a perfectly reasonable solutiontion or why it’s not perfectly reasonable.
DAP
August 21st, 2009
11:34 am
robertI know they’ll have about $10 from Gonzo or Soriano but where will the rest be. Don’t forget that McCann, Chipper and McLouth will be getting paid more.
just some approximate numbers: soriano $6.3mil, gonzalez $3.4mil (these you already mentioned) then there is garret anderson $2.5mil, greg norton $.8mil and since the red sox are paying part of laroche’s salary, it will basically be like kotchman’s $2.8mil is coming off. all that equals $15.8mil, and since i rounded down to make it easier to add up, i just decided to say “about $16mil.”
as for the raises, i didnt take time to try and figure out what those will be, so your right about that, but still, we have $27mil coming off to work with. money is not an issue for the braves.
Lew
August 21st, 2009
11:35 am
Efrim-Yeah, it would really bust some chops of those who believe Hudson is coming back as God.
Robert (Chipper Is The Best)
August 21st, 2009
11:36 am
I agree, DAP.
bravesgrl4life
August 21st, 2009
11:36 am
CB
August 21st, 2009
11:10 am
thanks Fish Bisch.
CB – I wouldn’t trust Fish Bi*ch. He’s a marlins fan and would probably love to see a Braves fan get in trouble. Wait for a REAL Braves fan to answer your question.
Jim
August 21st, 2009
11:36 am
Shaun,
Championship teams are made by having the right average player(s) in their lineup. Only the Yankees can afford to have a star at every position in their lineup, and that hasn’t turned out so well lately either. It is the Billy Martins, Bucky Dents, and Mark Lemkes that often show up big in the playoffs. After inserting Morgan in the leadoff role and with his defense in CF, the Nats have gone from woeful to dangerous.
ncscoots
August 21st, 2009
11:36 am
We will have to exercise [Hudson's] option very early in the off season
December 12, I believe, will be the last day to offer. That is hardly “very early”, unless you consider the winter meetings the same.
ncscoots
August 21st, 2009
11:38 am
scoots- and you have yet to convince me it’s not a perfectly reasonable solutiontion or why it’s not perfectly reasonable.
Exactly the reason I no longer pursue the matter, LOL.
Lew
August 21st, 2009
11:40 am
scoots-And even if it IS in December, it will give Hudson no more time to prove how good he is, unless he goes to Winter Ball. They going to take the chance he’ll be injured again? Again-they will have 20-25 innings pitched against ML hitters to tell if he’s worth that $12 mil.
Lew
August 21st, 2009
11:41 am
scoots-Maybe you could convince me if you actually had an argument I could counter. You haven’t -yet- but you can try.
Lew
August 21st, 2009
11:41 am
Excuse me-an argument I couldn’t counter.
Steve from OH
August 21st, 2009
11:42 am
A nice quote from Stan Kasten (about Mike Rizzo’s strengths/weaknesses). I can’t say I feel very differently from this:
But Mike has worked really hard on some areas that he identified today. Mike has become much more adept Sabermetrically — he even uses that word in our meetings — than he would have thought a year ago. He identified that as something he’d like to step up in, and he happened to have on his staff a pretty good crop of people, a pretty good set of resources to help him with that. So he was quite diligent about becoming fluent in that part of the world. As you know, his background is eyeball scouting, which I continue to think is the single most important thing. But it’s 60-40. It’s not 90-10. The other Sabermetric part of the world is very, very important, increasingly. I don’t think it’s ever going to replace eyeball scouting. I think it will always be a mistake to scout by statistics. You will never be able to dispense with eyeball scouting. And I will tell you in fact behind the scenes, it was the eyeball scouting that led us to Nyjer Morgan. We did a fair amount of sabermetric analysis, but it was what the people on the ground were saying that made that so important for us.
Jim
August 21st, 2009
11:51 am
For the first time in 4 years, the Braves are legitimately in a playoff race and this blog is obsessed with what we might do in the off-season! Cox hasn’t done anything in 2 days to bring out any calls for his head, and nobody except Chipper has played badly enough to warrant calls for him to be traded, DFAed, or sent to Siberia.
Should Chipper be rested (or moved down in the order) until his oblique is better?
Should we go with a 6-man rotation when (if) Hudson returns in Sept.
Who should be called up in Sept. and which of these may help us in the stretch run?
Just a few more immediate concerns we might talk about.
ncscoots
August 21st, 2009
11:52 am
After inserting Morgan in the leadoff role and with his defense in CF, the Nats have gone from woeful to dangerous.
Now all he has to do is continue hitting about 60 points above his career BA and 100 points above his career OPS (his numbers since the trade), LOL.
Daslied
August 21st, 2009
11:55 am
Tomahawkin’ – where in the Gonzo blurb is it “claiming that he is ready to test the waters of free agancy”? It states the he is a 2010 free agent. Nothing more.
Lew
August 21st, 2009
11:56 am
Jim-You’re right-no one has discussed anything else.
dogsbrekky
August 21st, 2009
11:57 am
Chipper and calls for his head – err guy is in a short term slump, but if he is as putrid as all think why is he still leading us in OPS etc. I will take a putrid Chipper as long as he starts fielding and throwing well. He will get HOTTTTTTTT with the timber again soon
timthebrave
August 21st, 2009
11:58 am
Eware, Agree completely on your Kings of Leon comment. If you listen to the radio they come off as cheesy because they play their 2 cheesiest songs on the radio. They would agree with you that sex on fire is cheesy even though it won best song. I like their new album but is definitely more synthesized but their earlier albums are great southern rock
Tomahawkin
August 21st, 2009
11:58 am
Daslied…
Pure Speculation…That’s all, I’m highly suprised that there has not been any ongoing negotiations with him during the season. I guess the Braves F.O. will wait til the offseason. With that said he will be one of the top relief arms on the market and expect him to command a B.J. Ryan type contract…
Jim
August 21st, 2009
12:00 pm
Morgan has not been in the league long enough nor played regularly enough before now to get a true indication of what his numbers will be.
Daslied
August 21st, 2009
12:01 pm
Tomahawkin – it’s not really the M.O. of the Braves to extend a reliever mid-season, is it? They also don’t give big contracts to relievers, and for good reason. Maybe a two-year deal, like Soriano’s, but that’s about it.
timthebrave
August 21st, 2009
12:01 pm
DAP, say NO to cameron/diaz but yes to cameron diaz
bravofan
August 21st, 2009
12:03 pm
alright so lay it out there playoffs or no playoffs for the Braves?
bravofan
August 21st, 2009
12:09 pm
wheres everybody at?
wjones
August 21st, 2009
12:09 pm
“Double Plays & Chipper killed us tonight.”
You know sometimes I miss things when I watch the game, but I could have sworn we won. Come on guys, be happy sometimes!
Heath
August 21st, 2009
12:09 pm
Looking at the pitching matchups this weekend, Braves have a very real chance to go 2-1 or 3-0 in this series. For whatever reason, they Braves have not peformed well against the Fish this year….they need to get it together this weekend.
You have to figure that the 4-game series between Colorado and San Fran this weekend (and Monday) will yield at least 1 loss for the Rocks (Lincecum) and hopefully 2 or 3. Being consesrvative, a 2-1 series win for the Braves and a 2-2 series split for the Rocks/Giants would put the Braves 3.5 out Tuesday morning when they begin their series with the Padres. The Rocks do have the Dodgers in their next series…so, the Braves have to continue winning series (hopefully going 5-1 in their next 6 games).
Shaun
August 21st, 2009
12:12 pm
Championship teams are made by having the right average player(s) in their lineup. Only the Yankees can afford to have a star at every position in their lineup, and that hasn’t turned out so well lately either. It is the Billy Martins, Bucky Dents, and Mark Lemkes that often show up big in the playoffs. After inserting Morgan in the leadoff role and with his defense in CF, the Nats have gone from woeful to dangerous.
Jim, the point is not that guys like Morgan are average and therefore shouldn’t be on championship teams. The point is can a team acquire a player similar to Morgan that is younger, cheaper and wouldn’t require a team to give up as much?
monty
August 21st, 2009
12:12 pm
I’m sure there are enough poeple on here “in the know” who can give me some degree of what the success rate for Tommy John surgery is and who has had it but never really came back from it to pitch anywhere like they used to. Is it a high probability that Hudson comes back and pitches well, what are the percentages that he won’t?? Any ideas?