1:12 pm July 23, 2009, by David O'Brien
July 23rd, 200911:03 pm
I agree with RHR. I’m more fond of the regular lineup.
July 23rd, 200911:04 pm
Braveheart………..I have explained IN DEPTH in other postings why I feel Kelly Johnson has lost it. Just because I didnt in do it AGAIN in that posting doesnt mean that I dont know. If you missed those other postings, then just ask me why. I have no problem with explaining it. But you got to do better than your 9:54pm posting.
Gotta do better than what exactly? Asking you to produce evidence and persuade for once instead of telling us your thoughts, wishes, hopes, feelings, wants, needs? You asserted observational knowledge that Kelly has lost it, but have never produced any observational evidence. You asserted the observational argument, thus it’s on you now to break down his mechanics for all of us. Otherwise, you’re just as full of b.s. about your observations as you are about most things.
You’ve provided little evidence that Kelly has lost it. Dude, you couldn’t even make it past a probable cause hearing with the lack of evidence you’ve provided in prosecuting KJ for “losing it”, never mind proving he’s “lost it” beyond a reasonable doubt, especially since so many on KJ’s defense team on here have raised way beyond a reasonable doubt as to whether KJ has lost it.
July 23rd, 200911:05 pm
njbraves………..If I’m wrong come mid-August………I’ll be a man and post that I was wrong. However, I seriously doubt it. Remember coming into today’s game we were 5 1/2 games out of first, 3 out of the wild card. Because of today’s actions (both on and off the game), I decided to stick my neck out there and made my prediction of by mid-August of us being at least 10 games out of first and also being at least 7 or 8 games out of the wild card.
I would love to be wrong. I really would. But I cant help but be a realist. Our season is over. Watch what happens. Too bad that most of you cant see it. I’ll deal with my disappointment now, while you guys can deal with it later, when it hits you like a ton of bricks.
July 23rd, 200911:08 pm
Why mess with a good thing? Is it any coincident that the Braves have their worse game of the month on the day Conrad is sent down and KJ is bought back? It’s called “chemistry” Bobby!
I have a newsflash for Bobby and Wren: GREG NORTON SUX!
This is yet another reason Cox needs to be pushed into retirement. He cannot keep up with the modern game.
But…if they got rid of Norton wouldn’t that mess up this “chemistry” you spoke of?
I am almost as superstitious as the players when it comes to baseball, i didn’t want anything to change with the lineup or the roster during this hot streak – even if it meant keeping Greg “Ruined my Day” Norton. I too had thoughts of “kick up the leaves, the magic is gone” when it was reported that KJ would rejoin the team sometime this week but I know that I’m ridiculous with my superstitions and that there was no way a move could be avoided. So anyway…I guess what I’m trying to say here is…you can’t blame the karma on KJ coming back and then in the same breath complain about Norton still being on the team.
July 23rd, 200911:09 pm
did it ever cross your mind that Bobby will give Chip, Kotchman, Prado, etc. days off because they need some here and there?
I don’t care about this KJ argument at all but I just want to know why Bobby never gave Jeffy a day off.
Every time I see the name Paul Lentz on here I get a visual image of the character Paul from the TV show Spin City. LOLOL
What a douchebag loser ……………………………..
July 23rd, 200911:10 pm
very sad blog tonight. maybe dob can start a double secret second blog.
Our season is over. Watch what happens. Too bad that most of you cant see it.
Gosh, you’re right. Let’s pack up and go home, guys. Don’t watch any more games or go to any more games. We’ll just watch Seinfeld reruns every night.
July 23rd, 200911:11 pm
RHR, Kurdt Kobain,
You guys are probably right. That same line-up won all those games on the homestand. If it aint broke dont fix it.
I’m going to bed….get a life Lentz
July 23rd, 200911:12 pm
BravoMan – ewwww a cubs roommate? You poor thing. Way to show your colors right back. Good luck at school. My daughter is getting ready to go back as well.
July 23rd, 200911:13 pm
Paul Lentz needs a summer job. I think a cultural adjustment would look good on his college application. Do you think you could get him a job down at Tuscaloosa doing something with the football team?
July 23rd, 200911:15 pm
RHR, thanks a lot. Yea I figure my Braves mat, a McCann poster, and all my hats and shirts should top whatever cubs stuff he’s got lol. Hope your daughter enjoys her time. This is my 1st year
July 23rd, 200911:17 pm
Great to see DeWayne Wise make that catch-for-the-ages in the Buehrle perfect game. Wise was a really cool guy when he was with the Braves, nice dude we all pulled for. That catch was just remarkable today, in that situation, and right after he’d entered as a defensive replacement. Sits on the bench all day watching the perfect develop, then enters the game and robs the first batter of the inning of a would-be homer to preserve the perfect game. Remarkable.
And Buerhle, showing again that a great change-up can be even more effective than power pitching.
July 23rd, 200911:18 pm
Paul Lentz (July 23rd, 2009 10:38 pm, p 16): “I didnt say make him a starter.”
This is what you said in the comment I quoted: “However when you have a player who is hitting well, you dont bench him.”
In MLB, the only alternative to being benched is starting. Either say what you mean, or mean what you say — pick one.
And he wasn’t benched — he was sent down to AAA.
Oh wow, you’ll have a ball, just don’t get too carried away, that 1st semester, especially if you go to a big football school, can be rough. Take easy classes your first semester. Where you headed if you don’t mind saying?
July 23rd, 200911:19 pm
jeffrey d…………oh, I’m going to watch all the games and “root” for the Braves to win. But judging by what happened today (both on and off the field), reality sat in that we will be out of the race by mid-August.
Again, if I’m wrong, I’ll admit it like a man.
Dang my best post of the night didn’t show up? I didn’t swear or anything. I swear!
July 23rd, 200911:20 pm
Thanks for the info — and the link.
I’ve read up a little bit on the “luck” factor that’s involved when it comes to balls put in play, but then how do we explain the likes of Tom Glavine (in his prime) and JJ right now? Neither are strikeout pitchers. JJ’s numbers, I would imagine, scream that he should have a MUCH HIGHER ERA than he does. He doesn’t strike out a ton of people and he’s not a Derek-Lowe-like sinkerballer.
July 23rd, 200911:21 pm
Our season is over. Watch what happens. Too bad that most of you cant see it. Paul Lentz
See what, exactly? What are you talking about? The Braves have the second-best record in the NL since June 28, just took three out of four from one of the wild-card teams ahead of them and handed Tim Lincecum his worst result in more than two months, before that took three out of four from the dreadful Mets, before that split four at another of the wild-card-contenders, Colorado, and before that won two out of three at Wrigley Field.
That’s their past four series.
They’re leading the NL in most offensive categories in July, have the best starters’ ERA in the majors, the third- or fourth-best overall ERA in the majors, and a schedule that has few remaining tough road trips and finishes with seven of their final 10 games against Washington.
Yeah, you’re right — most don’t see what you see. I know I don’t.
RHR, University of Indianapolis. I got pretty easy classes down. Not a big party school so I wont get TOO wild lol. Thanks for the advise RGR!
July 23rd, 200911:22 pm
Random …………..benching a player means that he doesnt play, AT ALL. However, a bench player “plays”. In the 7 games before today, Brooks Conrad only had 2 at-bats. Kind of hard to stay sharp that way.
Bobby always finds a way to get “his guys” in. I can guarantee you that Kelly Johnson will have “more” 2 at-bats in his first 7 games back.
Paul – but what about what we’ve done the rest of the week? Stellar D, great hitting, and excellent hitting. Not to mention beating Tim Lincecum
RHR lol not G my bad im typing in the dark here
July 23rd, 200911:23 pm
DOWN ON THE FARM:
BRETT OBERHOLTZER is currently outdueling JULIO TEHERAN for top pitching prospect in DANVILLE. Both have started five games. TEHERAN has gone 30.2 innings to OBERHOLTZER’s 28.0. JULIO has allowed 27 hits and 11 runs, all earned, to BRETT’s 18 and seven only five of which are earned. Each has issued four walks and each has struck out 24. Actually both have been good, but OBERHOLTZER has the slight edge based on numbers so far as he has a 1.61 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP to TEHERAN’s 2.05 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. CHRISTOPHER MASTERS has the most spectacular SO to BB ratio at 36-1. 27.2 IP with 24 H and six ER with a 1.95 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. The assumption is we will be hearing more from the DANVILLE dynamic trio.
RIAN SPANJER-FURSTENBERG continues to lead hitters with more than 100 AB’s. He’s hitting at a .411 clip, with six HR’s and an equal number of doubles. 16 SO’s in 107 AB’s and five BB’s. A tidy .454 OBP, .636 SLG., and 1.089 OPS. Three errors in 26 games for the raking first baseman. Both ADAM MILLIGAN and L.V. WARE have moved to ROME leaving RIAN as the main power hitter in DANVILLE.
July 23rd, 200911:24 pm
O nver mind I was lokking at another comment thpught I spelt ur name wrong. Thanks again for the college advice
Paul Lentz (July 23rd, 2009 11:05 pm): “njbraves………..If I’m wrong come mid-August………I’ll be a man”
And that would be mid-August 2021? 2022?
NO MORE BOBBY
For the record – I am not a fan of Gonzalez at all.
This guy makes Mitch Williams look like Mariano Rivera.
July 23rd, 200911:26 pm
GO DOB!!!!!! Night yal
July 23rd, 200911:27 pm
Deft move sending Conrad down. Solid numbers shouldn’t be a reason to keep him up. Greg “No-Hit” Norton is far too valuable, eh? And Kelly has that solid glove to back up Prado. Wait a minute. Come to think of it, Kelly will probably get the nod over Prado. Kelly’s been “rehabbed,” after all. Management’s still invested in him. Management just can’t be wrong, can it?
July 23rd, 200911:28 pm
Paul Lentz (July 23rd, 2009 11:22 pm): “benching a player means that he doesnt play, AT ALL.”
Yeah — in the NFL.
No problem, BravoMan.
Ugh. SEC media days coverage on my tv and all they talk about/show is Tim Tebow. I don’t know if I can take another season of the Tim Tebow man crush every sportscaster in America has.
Ron in mobile
July 23rd, 200911:29 pm
Hey DOB i remember last year Carroll covered the Brewers series because for some reson i recall her talking about a rough landing there. Anyway is it just a coincedence you missed the past two years there? I know your covering the HOF inductions, but do you have certain cities you try to skip?
It’s amazing to me that people continue to respond to people like Lentz, Robert, Coach, etc. Arguing with them is like playing tennis with a wall-unless you are honing your rhetorical skills, why bother? I guess it spikes the comment count, but that’s about the only virtue in it.
Anyway, huge game tomorrow. Facing Parra, who is questionable–and definitely do not want to drop the first game and have to beat Gallardo to come up with the series win. So big game.
I mean the man crush is what makes me dislike the guy and want him to be an NFL flop. By all accounts he’s an amazing guy but damn if I can root for him.
any news around? Have we dealt KJ yet?
July 23rd, 200911:31 pm
HOF inductions? I figured Dave took off for the Neko Case concert.
NO MORE BOBBY,
Thats Gonzo comment was accurate…….. at least what I have seen from his this season.
Steve from OH
Chilidog–there’s always gonna be players that defy the trend one way or the other. For example, Javy Vazquez’s FIPs and such have suggested that he should be much better than he has been over his career. This year, we’re seeing a bit of that correcton. One explaination is that a pitcher can control somewhat what happens to a ball in play, though this effect is probably small, according to what I’ve read. So this can account for some variation. However, IMO, Jair is due for some regression, mostly due to a low (unsustainably low, IMO) BABIP. But his FIP is still really good at 3.63.
But hey, there are just some guys that “have it.” That can pitch effectively almost despite poor-ish peripherals. Because there are things we can’t quantify–deception in delivery, quality of contact (LD rate does some of that for us) etc. That’s why baseball is such a great game. Stats tell some of the story, and for batters, especially ones with bigger track records, can tell most of it. But there will always be something missing.
July 23rd, 200911:32 pm
Id trade Gonzo before his trade value goes down the drain like JFs
Jeff Kellog was a real jerk today. Nissed all of those balls and strikes, then tossed Bobby. That high pitch he called a strike cost the Braves 2 baserunners with only one out. If he makes the correct call, the hitter gets first, and the baserunner would have been at second. TWO FREAKIN’ RUNNERS. This is the worst part though. After he tossed Bobby, he said “Get out of here, get the f**k out of here” Reading his lips was easy. I know the managers use profanity directed toward the umpires, probably on a daily basis. However, the umpires should act like the professionals they are supposed to be. THEY screw up and then eject managers, players, etc. That entire game was not well officiated. ML umpires are getting more arrogant every year. Baseball needs to do something about them, but Selig doesn’t have the nads to do it. Same way he is nadless with the Player’s Association.
I thought the purpose of the game was to win, but the Braves make moves sometimes that don’t act like winning is important. How in Hades could they send Conrad down and keep Norton? What was the reasoning behind that? Norton has more ML at bats? Supposedly more power? Loyalty? Something else? Conrad had as many homers and almost as many RBIs in his FIRST AT BAT, as Norton has all freakin’ year. Then he continued to rake. Bad move, really bad move. BC said he had to think about it all night. Why? It’s a no brainer to all of us wanna be managers. Should be for BC, FW and whoever else was involved.
July 23rd, 200911:33 pm
Doc how dare you even remotely put Gonzo in the same class as JF.
Frank from KS (now living in CO)
July 23rd, 200911:34 pm
Paul said something to the effect of…
“I wished I could get a hold of Frank Wren…..I could fix this whole mess”
Yeah right Paul. I can see it now…..
*just as the Braves win the 2009 World Series..*
Frank: “Yeah, Paul….I’d gladly like to take this opportunity to thank you for all the vauable information regarding this team. It helped a bunch”
Paul..”No problem Mr. Wren. I was very happy to help”
We´ve got our closer, what we need is an 8th inning guy, Gonzo is not dominant, he is just too wild, IMO. We could deal him, I have not done any research about it but Im sure there are better 8th inning guy that have better control than him.
July 23rd, 200911:35 pm
RHR–if it makes you feel any better, we Ohioans don’t much care for Tebow either…
Think he said the other day he wanted to go to that show but had to be in cooperstown. The reason i was asking was because of all the cities to try and skip id think Milwaukee would have to be close to the top. Not a bad place…just not much happening
July 23rd, 200911:36 pm
July 23rd, 200911:37 pm
RHR, don’t remind me that I’m gonna miss the gorgeous and supremely talented Ms. Case on Sunday. Please.
Paul Lentz (July 23rd, 2009 11:19 pm): “Again, if I’m wrong, I’ll admit it like a man.”
Oh, I get it now — LIKE a man. Like you’ve read how men do. Not as a man.
PS: Salud!!! in 2022. You’ll always remember your first beer. Savor it.
July 23rd, 200911:39 pm
You are a joke Steve.
You and KJ both.
It is said that you promulgate viewpoints that lead to our team losing. I wish you would find a new hobby that doesn’t involve supporting Bobby Cox playing Jeff Francoeur and Kelly Johnson. You are a fool.
July 23rd, 200911:40 pm
Hanson vs Gallardo on saturday…………..that should be some game.
CrimeDog — Nice points @ July 23rd, 2009 9:22 pm, p 15.
Paul Lentz (July 23rd, 2009 9:24 pm, p 15): “Do you know what the sad thing is? It isnt that I was right about Glavine, Smoltz, and Hampton: It was that some many people on here RIPPED Frank Wren and the Braves for not re-signing Smoltz and Hampton AND for releasing Glavine. The fact that SO MANY on here were WRONG about Smoltz, Hampton and Glavine……..is what is so SAD.”
In what regard were you right about Hampton?
I don’t recall anyone ripping Wren when Hampton signed for less $$$ with Houston — they were all too busy ripping Hampton. Are you rewriting history?
As for Glavine — he wasn’t given a chance to fail at the ML level, so you don’t know if you were right or not (whatever position(s) you might have taken).
And imo, it’s too soon to judge Smoltz’ performance — 5 GS, 25.2 IP. We’ll see. And I think the Wren-rippers in re Smoltz were the minority — I don’t remember having a lot of company back then (I didn’t “rip” Wren, just opined that he had been wrong-footed by the Red Sox, and that it was a mistake not to re-sign Smoltz). Again, most people on this blog were ripping Smoltz at the time.
So cheer up — turns out not to be so SAD after all.
Yeah I meant to type that in my last post — that I know every rule has exceptions.
Here is a question I have for you, though. As a “new stats” guys.
What kind of indicator for performance are runs scored?
I’ve always argued that I thought runs scored for a player were one of the most underrated stats in sports — because after all, the whole point is trying to score. Just like basketball. Just like football.
And some guys have a knack for it — usually really really good players.
I know it’s a team-dependant stat. Like RBI’s. And I know OPS is more important than both. But aren’t runs scored almost a direct result of a high OPS. Obviously, the more often you are on base, and the more extra-base hits you get, the more you’re going to score runs.
Anyway, long-winded way to ask are runs deemed a quality indicator of performance?
Ron in Mobile: I’m not Covering the Hall of Fame inductions. I’m going up to present the Spink Award winner, Nick Peters, a retired San Francisco Giants beat writer. The Spink Award is an annual thing that goes to a writer for lifetime achievement, and he (or she) is inducted into the Hall of Fame at same ceremony as the players. It’s this Sunday, but there’s a couple of receptions and private tour of the Hall this weekend for the 50 or so Hall of Famers who come back and guests, etc.
July 23rd, 200911:41 pm
Checked the DANVILLE box tonight and saw that WARE’s underwhelming performance in ROME has netted a return to DANVILLE for more seasoning.
promulgate? Sounds like a school word
Happ has become the phillies savor this season……….they would be behind us without him. He just came out of nowhere. 7-0
Trade KJ, or keep him in the minors. Do not put him in our clubhouse looming like a cloud for when Bobby the idiot Cox will play him above Martin Prado. LMAO.
July 23rd, 200911:44 pm
Top 10 this year in runs scored (don’t think this proves anything or not, just intertested):
4. B. Roberts
5. M. Scutaro (didn’t expect that)
We could use KJ ……… we just have to make sure he is ready to make his comeback.
I dont see much of a problem there as the one I see on keeping Norton.
July 23rd, 200911:45 pm
I really hope KJ can come back and help the Braves win but my concern is Bobby.I hope he puts the Team first and forget about trying to please everybody.Mix and match as much as he have to but please don’t play favorites.Welcome back KJ and I hope Conrad is back soon.The Braves can win this thing and like i’ve said before it’s all on Bobby.
July 23rd, 200911:46 pm
To begin, I estimated the impact of the big-3 (K9, BB9, HR9), plus the hit-batter-rate (HBP9) DIPS components and BABIP, on ERA, while controlling for the defense of the team, the age of the pitcher , the league of the pitcher, and the season. I used the pitcher’s team seasonal BABIP to proxy defense, assumed the impact of age on ERA to be U-shaped (quadratic), and used indicator variables equal to 1 or 0 to identify the league and year in which the pitcher’s stats were posted. Here are the unit and percentage impacts of the variables on a pitchers ERA (again, park-corrected) (STEVE from article)
right there lies my relative lack of faith in most of the complicated stats. They are most all more subjective than pure numbers because a person is making estimates or decisions and not all are going to be the same. I laughed my arse of when James brought out WinShares I think it was cause it actually had a place in the formula for you to fudge the outcome if it didn’t come out the way you thought it should. Nah, they are interesting, but I’m not putting any great faith in them.
July 23rd, 200911:47 pm
Runs scored are a great team indicator, not so much for the individual. Again, like you said, too many things outside of his control. Plus, it’s a counting stat, so it doesn’t take into account games played, etc., so you kinda have to make those adjustments on your own, which nobody likes to do.
I don’t know if there is a correlation between a player’s runs scored and his OPS (probably is), but wouldn’t it just be better to look at the OBP or OPS? Because we know that the player controls all of that by himself and by no others. We cannot say the same is true for runs scored. While it has some value (all stats cited here do), its value is lesser compared to so-called context-neutral stats, such as OBP, etc. The thing you should know about us “new stats-guys” is that we strive to look objectively at a player–what is he doing by himself and without any aid from his teammates? How good is he at doing stuff that only he can control? We feel that this gives us a better grasp on evaluating a player’s true talent level and production as opposed to RBI or runs scored.
So yeah, like you said, a player with a high OB% is likely to score more runs than one with a lower OB%, but again, if player A has Pujols hitting behind him and player B has Francoeur, I don’t think I’d look at runs scored the same in both cases, right?
Must be pretty cool to know that you have a better shot at making the Hall of Fame than Mark McGwire.
I’m pulling for ya, big guy. Sincerely. You do a great job.
Greg Norton = Lost cause…
Brooks Conrad = The future…
KJ got a hit late in the game……….thats a good sign. Norton is a clown with no remedy. Take in account I dont like KJ at all, but we have to be fair. Maybe he has figure it out and might be a great piece in our effort to overtake the phillies.
July 23rd, 200911:48 pm
If you think KJ is good, you are wrong. He is a horrible player. Look at the energy sucked out of our ballclub as the fool sent down the unproven but successful Conrad for the loafing, slow, out-maker KJ. The whole team was immediately depressed when he entered the dugout. They KNOW Bobby should NOT be playing KJ, and they were working hard to get this team on fire, which it was. TRADE KJ NOW and save our season (SOS).
If you love mediocriy and not making the playoffs (Steve for defending playing KJ, (he also defended playing JFrancoeur)) keep listening to those who support Cox for playing KJ.
And why has Coach forsaken us? I only see him over at MB’s blog nowadays, being, surprisingly, positive.—RHR
maybe coach is Paul, he seems to have disappeared about the time Paul became super active. They are both nuts.
David O’Brien………..I tried to explain it earlier. I said that what occurred today (both on and off the field)……..has shown me that we will soon be falling out of the race.
Look, I’m not one of those fans who “gets all panicky after just one loss”. However, what today’s loss did……..ALONG with Frank Wren’s decision to keep Greg Norton over Brooks Conrad when he activated Kelly Johnson……SHOWED me a preview of what is going to happen in the next few weeks when a decision has to be made on what to do with Jeff Bennett and Buddy Carlyle. Also critical are what roster moves to make when Omar Infante and Tim Hudson comes back.
Bobby Cox CONTINUES to use Peter Moylan in crucial situations. Jeff Bennett is coming back soon (meaning that either Kris Medlen, Manny Acosta or Boone Logan will be demoted). Buddy Carlyle is soon expected back (meaning that only 1 of the Medlen, Acosta, and Logan 3some will be left). Jeff Bennett and Buddy Carlyle WILL NOT help our bullpen. BOTH are BUMS. In crucial situations, they will be be hit, and hit HARD.
Bobby will continue to use Greg Norton in critical pinch hitting roles. And Bobby will find some way to give Kelly at-bats to “get him going”, meaning that our offense will start to “stall”.
Also, instead of using Tim Hudson as a short relief pitcher to help Soriano and Gonzalez to close games, Bobby Cox will insert him back in the rotation, meaning that Kawakami will be banished to the bullpen.
So by the time Tm Hudson is back……..barring injury to the other guys or a trade………Kris Medlen, Boone Logan, and Manny Acosta will be in Triple A, replaced by Jeff Bennett, Buddy Carlyle and Kenshin Kawakami in the bullpen. WOW, lol.
Frank Wren not cutting Greg Norton and instead sending Brooks Conrad to Triple A just sealed the deal on how the rest of the season is going to play out.
In fact, I should have seen this coming earlier. When Bobby used Greg Norton as a pinch hitter on Saturday, Sunday, and Tuesday instead of Conrad……..that should have signaled which direction the Braves were going. Frank Wren is going to side with Bobby on giving Bobby “his boys” back to run out on the field.
To sum it up……Bobby’s use of the bullpen, coupled with his increasingly lack of options coming off the bench (Do you really think that the opposing manager “is shaking in his boots” when he looks at the line-up card and sees that Greg Norton, Kelly Johnson, and Diory Hernandez are pinch hitters that he has to match up against?), will DOOM the Braves this year. You can BANK ON IT.
July 23rd, 200911:49 pm
Paul Lentz, Conrad is simply not that good. He has some pop in his bat, but history shows he is a .250 hitter in the minors for an extended time period. Hey I like the guy, he’s a hard nosed player & gives it his all.
Now that said I’d take him in a second over Norton. He’s here simply because of what he did last season & the hopes he will come around. I don’t agree with him still being on the roster, but it really doesn’t matter what I think.
The Braves have too much invested in KJ right now to leave him in AAA when he is flat raking like he is. Does he deserve to start at 2B right now, hell no, but I’d rather he be there when Prado spells Chipper or Kotchman. He hits lefties, even this season he hit them well. The Braves are going to see a ton of lefties from NL East teams the remainder of the season & could use him if he comes around.
What do you guys think about trading Gonzo for a veteran arm in the pen that is more solid/consistent and some young prospect? This might be the right time.
July 23rd, 200911:50 pm
Oh ok DOB for some reason i thought the Spink award would be part of the all the other things in Cooperstown. There are certainly worse places to be than San Fran. How are you feeling about Entourage so far this season. Can i get an amen for Sloan being regular again!
July 23rd, 200911:53 pm
If Bobby thinks he should keep his job, he better not start KJ over our good hitting players right now who have better OBP. I think Bobby is one of the worst lineup makers in the world when he has objective stats to guide his intuitions but plays his favorites or the popular choice instead. Winners learn how to win, and do it by playing the players who get on base. KJ is an out-maker and he kills our team energy with his out-making.
he also defended playing JFrancoeur
When did I do this? I think I was pretty clear as to how I felt about Jeff’s suckitude.
Carpe–I agree with you to an extent. I’ll (hopefully) address it in the future, but honestly, a lot of that math is really beyond me, which is why you don’t see my citing BaseRuns or eqRAA or whatever–because I don’t get the math. I don’t feel like really delving into it tonight though, as I’m really behind on the work I’m supposed to do. I’ve gotta read one more paper for tomorrow and then re-read some others for materials and methods stuff…damn blog, LOL! So don’t think I’m dodging you if I don’t respond right away!
July 23rd, 200911:56 pm
Steve from OH………….what is your rational about Jeff Francoeur having the WORST “on base percentage” of ANY corner outfielder with more than 2,500 at bats……..in MAJOR LEAGUE HISTORY?
I guess that “on base percentage” is either overrated or outdated? Huh?
July 23rd, 200911:57 pm
I hear what you’re saying. Or more accurately, I read what you’re writing.
It’s too dependant on other people. I’ve always thought it was a bit underappreciated because, after all, touching home is the goal of everyone that steps into the batter’s box. But I know it’s not nearly as good an indicator as OPS.
And trust me, I have no problem with “new stats.” I think they’ve changed the game for the better. Made fans take a look at the numbers that really matter, that really indicate a person’s performance. And also made some fans — like me — feel pretty uneducated.
Whether you like it or not, Lentz is correct. Bobby is dooming this ballclub by playing “his boys” instead of the good players.
It is very sad to watch and you as a member of the media need to push hard for answers from our coach when Bobby Cox lineup decisions defy the statistics of OBP and ERA.
July 23rd, 200911:59 pm
That is what teams with successful organizations often have. Fans that agitate for smart decisions and media that agitate for smart decisions on the behalf of the fans.
ATLANTA DESERVES THAT.
LET’S BRING ATLANTA BACK TO THE GLORY DAYS WHERE WE ARE CONTENDING (AND WINNING THIS TIME, UNLIKE THE LAST RUN) THE WORLD SERIES!!
July 24th, 200912:00 am
Anyone hear anything developing between the Dodgers and the Braves?
July 24th, 200912:01 am
if it makes you feel any better, we Ohioans don’t much care for Tebow either… Steve
July 24th, 200912:02 am
For example, Javy Vazquez’s FIPs and such have suggested that he should be much better than he has been over his career. —STEVE
when he keeps his WHIP down he has good years, when it goes up he doesn’t. he has been erratic with his command from year to year
Steve, I know it may pain you that I bring this up. But in response to your last statement insisting the contrary, I have seen you defend Bobby Cox playing Francoeur over Diaz during the first season.
I want to see more demand for Bobby cox making the right decisions from the posts you promulgate, but defending working KJ into the lineup during this CRITICAL point in our year when we can achieve what we TRULY DESERVE with our great players is VERY concerning.
I think Prado would have not earned 2B if he had a .290 BA and KJ had .220……. Martin is in because he has the best BA on the team, well above .320.
first season=first half of season
July 24th, 200912:03 am
RG–now do you realize why you’re pushin’ it with me, huh? If you tell me that you’re a Florida fan, we may not be friends…
July 24th, 200912:04 am
I have seen you defend Bobby Cox playing Francoeur over Diaz during the first season.
This is vague, but go on, such as…?
I thought I was pretty clear in stating how badly I thought he sucked, but I guess not…
July 24th, 200912:05 am
Baseball Dude……….what you are saying is falling on deaf ears. They just cant see how the actions of today (both on and off the field) signed the continuation of a course of action that will no doubt be followed until the end of the season. Knowing that, the writing is on the wall. The fate of the Braves season was SEALED today.
I know that there is a lot of baseball left to be played. However what wont change is how the bullpen and bench is used. Also what wont change is how Bobby gets his way on getting “his boys” back on the roster. I am still amazed that Frank Wren was able to trade Jeff Francoeur (I’m beginning to think that he snuck behind the backs of the “boys upstairs” and sent the paperwork to the league office to sign off on the trade before Schuerholtz and Cox could block it, lol, just kidding, lol). Seriously, Frank Wren must have really fought hard to make the Francoeur trade happen because I know that Bobby Cox did not take that going down without a fight. I just wish that Frank Wren would have done the same thing when it came to Greg Norton.
Florida sucks and so does KJ and Cox. No pun intended, but maybe that’s why Bobby would play KJ over our other hitters who are good and sabotage our team’s win total.
July 24th, 200912:06 am
Heck.No. But I do take pleasure in others’ pain.
July 24th, 200912:07 am
Sorry to be redundant but Simpson and Booger are anything but enjoyable. Sure they get along well – unlike Simpson and Chip (problem there is Chip is a hellofalot smarter than Joe and he sometimes tries to show it and JS resents the hell out of it). They, Joe and Boog, spend too much time on nothing and miss a lot of real baseball.
This poster has never really had an issue with KJ’s bat. Sure he’s streaky and has been in a deep funk pretty much all season, but you know he’s capable. That hit today showed me that his bat-speed is there – he turned on a good fastball on the outer half and rapped it back up the middle even with a late swing. The problem is he can’t play second base. I guarantee you if we end up trading him wherever he goes will move him to the outfield where his speed and basic instincts will pay off. Second is just not in his DNA.
Conrad’s a ball player that can hit …Norton is a pinch-hitter that hasn’t hit a lick all season. What would you rather have in a stretch run? After all this ain’t the AL with the DH.
July 24th, 200912:10 am
arpe–I agree with you to an extent. I’ll (hopefully) address it in the future, but honestly, a lot of that math is really beyond me, —Steve
thanks for the reply. it is not the math that I have objections to, it is the personal input. Estimates and such, this applies to how the data for the defensive stats is developed to in a way. Not saying they are worthless, but I’ll take them all with a bigger grain of salt than the pure numbers.
I do not think all hope is lost. If we can trade KJ, or send him to the minors, we will WIN OUR DIVISION.
We would be THE BEST TEAM IN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE if Bobby had not played KJ and JF the entire first half and KJ now.
MARK IT DOWN, SEAL IT UP, THE BRAVES WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS DESPITE COX’S IDIOCY.
HOWEVER, WE WOULD BE THE BEST TEAM IN THE ENTIRE NL IF COX WOULD JUST PLAY THE PLAYERS WHO HIT AND WALK (GET ON BASE) INSTEAD OF PLAYERS WHO MAKE OUTS.
COX MUST RETIRE SO WE CAN PUSH TOWARD THE WORLD SERIES.
I LIKE FRANK WREN. I DON’T LIKE COX SABOTAGING OUR TEAM
JAVIER VAZQUEZ SHOULD BE CONTENDING FOR THE CY YOUNG WITH HIS ERA AND WHIP BUT HIS W/L RECORD HAS SUFFERED DUE TO BOBBY. WE SHOULD BE THE #1 TEAM IN THE NL AND WE SAW THAT IT IS INDEED POSSIBLE BASED ON THE LAST 6 GAMES PRIOR TO TODAY. UNBELIEVABLE PITCHING STARTERS AND CLOSERS. GREAT OBP WHEN THE LINEUP CARD IS CORRECT. LET’S PRAY BOBBY WILL PLAY THE RIGHT PLAYERS.
July 24th, 200912:11 am
the writing is on the wall. The fate of the Braves season was SEALED today.
Because Conrad got sent down to the minors? Hopeless. Utterly friggin’ hopeless. Won’t waste my time ever again with someone who thinks the fate of a season was dependent upon Conrad being demoted.
July 24th, 200912:13 am
you guys are really running paul lentz.
at least he has some baseball acumen.
he is repetitive, no doubt. but he at least is not a one line dolt during the games.
there are far worse posters on here.
“We would be THE BEST TEAM IN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE if Bobby had not played KJ and JF the entire first half and KJ now.”
You might be right, you could be wrong, we would never know.
“MARK IT DOWN, SEAL IT UP, THE BRAVES WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS DESPITE COX’S IDIOCY. ”
Whats your historical accuracy when you make this type of statements……….I mean…….if its close to 100% I would be able to sleep better in the next 2 months.
July 24th, 200912:15 am
JUST SHUT UP AND STOP INSULTING POSTERS WHO DEMAND BETTER DECISION MAKING THAN ONE THAT SUPPORTS KJ AND JF OVER PLAYERS WHO PRODUCE AND WIN.
YOU SUCK AT LIFE AND PROMOTE THE BRAVES LOSING.
Carpe–in fairness, the stats I cite most often, EqA, wOBA and FIP don’t have any “personal input” there. And, most other times, I just simply use ERA, WHIP, and the good ‘ol BA/OBP/SLG trio. Lots of good info to be gained by all of ‘em, but we cite the others in an attempt to correct for their shortcomings by offering more data. Could you elaborate for me on what exactly you mean by “personal input.” I never got into that Bill James stat you referenced, so I’m not entirely clear about what you mean…
July 24th, 200912:16 am
Or more accurately, I read what you’re writing.
It’s too dependant on other people. I’ve always thought it was a bit underappreciated because, after all, touching home is the goal of everyone that steps into the batter’s box. But I know it’s not nearly as good an indicator as OPS. (Chilidog)
some stats like RBI and RS are indeed important to the outcome of a game, they just aren’t the best ones to use to evaluate a player’s production because they do indeed depend a bit more than we would like on things outside the control of the batter. When posters decry that RBI are not considered important enough, they are really just setting up a strawman to attack. It is really two different subjects, not one.
July 24th, 200912:17 am
THE FATE OF THE SEASON IS DEPENDENT ON BOBBY COX’S DECISIONS THAT PREVENT THE BRAVES FROM PLAYING TO THE POTENTIAL THEY HAVE, WHICH IS NL CHAMPS.
YOU ARE THE CLUELESS ONE, NOT LENTZ, WHO HAS A GRASP OF THE REASONS WE NEED TO RETIRE BOBBY SO THAT OUR TEAM CAN ACTUALLY PLAY SOME BASEBALL.
DID YOU NOT SEE WHAT HAPPENED THE 6 GAMES BEFORE TODAY? BEAUTIFUL AND THAT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE CAN AND SHOULD EXPECT WITH THE PLAYERS WE HAVE AVAILABLE.
WAKE UP BRAVEHEART AND STOP INSULTING OUR FANS AND OUR TEAM BY PROMOTING MEDIOCRITY YOU CHUMP.
July 24th, 200912:18 am
Oh! Please no talk about that incredulous TeBLOW!!!
July 24th, 200912:21 am
What’s Tebow got to be in extreme shock about, Joebrave?
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