1:12 pm July 23, 2009, by David O'Brien
July 23rd, 200910:07 pm
JasonInFL………61 base runners allowed in 41 innings pitched, with an ERA of 4.39, is not something I want to see from a reliever coming into a game with runners on 1st and 2nd with 0 outs in a tie ball game. I would rather see Boone Logan left in.
Think about this for a second. If Moylan makes a good throw and gets Uribe out…then there are runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out. Bochy then uses a lefty pinch hitter to hit for Downs. The Braves intentionally walk the pinch hitter to “set” up the double play. So Moylan faces a left handed John Bowker. Now if he were to strike out Bowker like he did in the game…then he has to face Randy Winn…..who ended up raking him for a single.
So bottom line, using Moylan was a TERRIBLE move. I’d have stayed with Boone Logan.
Steve from OH
That would rank Moylan 25th overall amongst relief pitchers in 2009. Soriano is 4th and Gonzo 15th, fwiw. Ah, the beauty of evidence…
July 23rd, 200910:09 pm
Is everyone excited about the Braves again? Is everyone back on the bandwagon? Good, because it’s over. I fully expect the Braves to lose 4 or 5 of the next six games. You heard it here first.
Why mess with a good thing? Is it any coincident that the Braves have their worse game of the month on the day Conrad is sent down and KJ is bought back? It’s called “chemistry” Bobby!
I have a newsflash for Bobby and Wren: GREG NORTON SUX!
This is yet another reason Cox needs to be pushed into retirement. He cannot keep up with the modern game.
July 23rd, 200910:10 pm
This board is too much math and not enough ridiculous trade proposals.
Let’s focus on the guy who thinks we could get a ton for Brooks Conrad. Why did no one ask for further details there? There was goldmine potential.
July 23rd, 200910:12 pm
bgvt……….true, Chipper’s average wasnt so hot in 2004 (.248). However one has to take into account that he battled injuries that year (he only batted 472 times)…….plus he still hit 30 homers, knocked in 96 runs, and walked 84 times. It wasnt like he hit 11 homers, knocked in 71 runs, walked only 39 times will batting .239 in 599 at-bats like Jeff Francoeur did last year.
chilidog75 The Phillies won that game when the Padres’ bus pulled into the parking lot.
July 23rd, 200910:13 pm
Does that mean that Gonzo has been the 15th best relief pitcher in baseball this season?
Tokyo Bravo–I hope I’m giving you a good show, anyway. I figure if I pound the lunkhead with all the reasons he’s wrong he’ll oneday just suddenly realize it…
I am and idiot, aren’t I? LOL!
July 23rd, 200910:14 pm
jeffrey d……it makes sense to rid the hot hand. Frank Wren could have always sent Brooks Conrad back to Triple A if he exhibited signs of “falling back down to earth”. But they did it before he could “cool off”.
braves fan lmh
I wonder if the braves could get a major league ready outfielder from the twins for Kelly Johnson? Maybe someone like Jason Kubel. I know he is a left handed bat, but he can flat out hit! As far as the braves scouting the dodgers AA team I wonder if they would try and pry a package of pitchers from the braves?
July 23rd, 200910:15 pm
The Rockies got Bettancourt. Didn’t know if that had been posted on here yet.
July 23rd, 200910:16 pm
chilidog75 (July 23rd, 2009 9:59 pm, p 15): “KJ is such a mystery to me, honestly.”
I know it’s been mentioned several times before, but not to my knowledge recently, nor supported by any kind of rigorous research — to what extent did batting lead-off screw up Kelly’s approach at the plate (with possible consequent ramifications)?
If someone did some creative research with those splits, we might learn something interesting.
(Interesting how Escobar has flourished after being moved to 5/6 in the line-up. I also think I remember that Kelly himself in 2008 was much more productive batting 7th, but memories are notoriously faulty. That’s why we have written records and summaries of the games and plays which we call them “stats”.)
July 23rd, 200910:17 pm
No, of course not. But it gives us a good approximation of where he’s at in terms of how well does he execute things that he and only he can control. This excludes things like defense, because pitchers generally cannot control what happens to a batted ball. This is why Moylan struggles to the untrained eye–he gives up a lot of ground balls, and those grounders are sometimes gonna find holes. Luck of the draw, really, in most cases. Grounders are typically caught, but a lot of his aren’t this year, and hence the above-average .317 BABIP. A description of tRA is below:
Steve from OH,one thing that is true- if you lay down with a dog and you get fleas you can’t complain. You are wasting time arguing baseball with a person who if you stay on the blog one day most reasonable people are laughing at. Search for better conversations and keep your blood pressure dowh,he’s not worth it.
July 23rd, 200910:20 pm
I was wondering about that myself. Where did he bat last September?
I thought I remembered him being pushed down in the order before his torrid stretch, but I might be mis-remembering.
Either way, I think he has proved, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that he’s not a leadoff hitter. Not that it was his fault he kept getting penciled in at that spot every day. He didn’t make up the lineup card.
Paul Lentz…what I gather from all 750 of your posts today, is that you have been right about everything so far this year. Congratulations big guy. Maybe you should be Wren’s assisstant GM. You’re never wrong!! It’s amazing!!
CB–you’re right, of course. Sometimes it’s just too tempting to call him and idiot, because he really is…sigh…
July 23rd, 200910:21 pm
July 23rd, 200910:22 pm
Lantz….did it ever cross your mind that Bobby will give Chip, Kotchman, Prado, etc. days off because they need some here and there?? Or is it only so Bobby can play “his guy” KJ?
chilidog75–and those pitching metrics are yet another reason to try to find good defensive players as well. A lot of people (including myself, at one point) really undervalue defense, but it is terribly important.
Steve from OH………..let me ask you this. What happen to Austin Kearns? He was steadily getting better, “peaked” at age 26 when he hit 33 doubles, 24 homers, had 86 RBIs in 2006, only hit 35 doubles, 16 homers, 74 RBIs in 2007………then 10 doubles, 7 homers, and 32 RBIs in 2008……..and now 6 doubles, 3 homers, 16 RBIs while batting .198 in 167 at-bats in 2009 (at age 29, the age you said that players “peak” at).
Point is, not all players “peak” at around 29. I feel that Hall of Fame type players peak around that age (because those are the kind of players who have longevity). However, the vast majority of players have various ages where they “peak” at (depending on injuries and their ability to adjust to the adjustments that MLB makes on them).
Frank from KS (now living in CO)
July 23rd, 200910:23 pm
On a side note……I know if I were Erin Andrews b/f or husband, the gentleman who video-taped her….whould definately have hell to pay. The act was UNCALLED FOR.
He definately wouldn’t want to see me in a dark alley. I’d kick his &^% from here to Timbuctu.
Paul Lentz (July 23rd, 2009 9:58 pm): “I never said that Conrad would become an All-Star. However when you have a player who is hitting well, you dont bench him.”
You do if he’s a bench player — that’s his role on this team.
What position are you saying he should start at? Second base? Third base? Where???
July 23rd, 200910:24 pm
Frank…don’t worry bud….Erin Andrews would never date you.
PWH–I provided a link at 10:17. It’s FIP with stuff like GB/LD rate factored in as well.
Look at Mr. Bruce from Cincy. Isn’t he in his 20’s?
I read up on tRA after your last post — admit I had no idea what it was when you posted it.
Is tRA a better indicator of performance, in your mind, than ERA?
Is this an en-vogue stat that “baseball people” use? Or is it just getting traction?
Not being a smart a–, I really don’t know.
July 23rd, 200910:25 pm
fastasballs………….have you thought about the possibilty that Conrad could be a little rusty because he only had 2 at-bats since the All-Star Break before tonight’s game at Triple A? Sitting on the bench has a tendency to “cool a hot streak” (just ask Matt Diaz).
This Brooks Conrad is completely out of control. The guy sat on the bench every day. Yeah, Norton is terrible, whatever. Conrad was never going to play here so it really is no big deal. Amazing what gets people riled up.
July 23rd, 200910:26 pm
njbraves- 10:24 pm “Frank…don’t worry bud….Erin Andrews would never date you.”
How do you know buddy…..you know her personally?
And another thing….you don’t even know me….so STHU!!
July 23rd, 200910:27 pm
Paul, Have you told Conrad your true feelings for him?
Jeez I leave work at 6 and we’re still on the same subjects.
Erin Andrews is saving herself for Tim Tebow.
Braveheart………..I have explained IN DEPTH in other postings why I feel Kelly Johnson has lost it. Just because I didnt in do it AGAIN in that posting doesnt mean that I dont know. If you missed those other postings, then just ask me why. I have no problem with explaining it.
But you got to do better than your 9:54pm posting.
Diaz is another one that gets people all worked up. He’s a nice player, not great. He has way too many bad AB’s . where he swings at balls out of the zone. Today was a prime example.
July 23rd, 200910:29 pm
Frank from KS….believe me buddy. You have no shot. Thanks for playing though.
I never said she would date me or wouldn’t date me. I was just saying what I’d do IF I was her b/f or husband…as it concerns the feller who video-taped her.
July 23rd, 200910:30 pm
I’m about sit down and play a little poker…any advise?
Did I mention that I love Brooks Conrad??? Because I do. I really, really do. If Brooks was still on the team they would have WON today!!
Your probably right buddy. Most women like a%%$#les…which I’m not.
July 23rd, 200910:31 pm
Or…advice…if you prefer…
However, the vast majority of players have various ages where they “peak” at
Apparently you didn’t read Bradbury’s work. I’ll re-iterate: are you this big of a simpleton? Seriously?
Point is, not all players “peak” at around 29.
Sure. And not all appendectomies are successful, either. If you don’t play so that the odds are in your favor, you’ll never win.
The evidence is out there, cat. It’s real. Why do you choose to ignore it?
I may not have fully comprehended all of Bradbury’s study (and anyone who does is welcome to add whatever pieces you wish), but at least for now, them’s the facts.
Jst got my authentic Braves navy road cap. Pretty sharp Lid. And a big Bravo rug to put in my dorm when I head to college. Gonna show my roommate who’s all cubs crap
July 23rd, 200910:32 pm
John– I KNOW that you’re going to win. Play smart, not too aggresive, and check back with me if you need anything.
July 23rd, 200910:33 pm
What are the advantages of tRA over xFIP?
Steve from OH………..With Moylan, it’s a crap shot. You dont know which Moylan you are going to get from one outing to the next. So what if he can induce a double play 14% of the time, lol. What good is that if he has outings like today where he gets ROCKED? What about the other times when he doesnt get a double play or a strikeout? It’s either feast or famine with Moylan. I’ve seen it OVER AND OVER AGAIN with him. The 3rd game of the year against the Phillies, the next game against Washington, the meltdown against the Pirates that cost Kawakami a win (we did win in 15 innings though), another meltdown against the Oriolies, and now today. When is ENOUGH……….ENOUGH?
If Frank Wren would just take one of my calls, I could fix this whole mess.
Jman (Yunel is a Saint!)
July 23rd, 200910:34 pm
Are we really on ledge with a knife to our wrists again? After a 6-2 homestand? Really?! Chill fellas… seriously
Enter your comments here
July 23rd, 200910:35 pm
Damn near 30 years old. Nine minor league seasons. A career minor league BA of .261, a career minor league OBP of .343 and a career minor league SLG % of .467. 19 ML AB in Oakland netted a .158 BA, a .158 OBP and a .218 SLG %.
Yet on the basis of 32 AB in ATlanta where he far outshone ANYTHING he’s ever done in all this time in Professional baseball and he’s worth over 1000 posts because he was sent a half hour away to Gwinnett?
Somewhat obsessive about the player du jour, are we?
Don’t worry Frank from KS…there’s a woman, with only a few teeth missing, out there for ya somewhere.
You couldn’t pull off one of the many great deals Wren has accomplished:p
July 23rd, 200910:36 pm
i hope we add a good bullpen arm. perhaps we won’t, hoping to use Hudson and slide someone else into the pen, or even go with a 6-man rotation.
We seem to overuse Moylan and Gonzalez, both recent patients of Dr. Andrews.
Aardsma in Seattle interests me, but he’s probably too expensive, especially with Seattle still in contention.
chilidog–I feel that it is a better indicator of the performance that the individual, and the individual only, can control. For example, inherited runners that score go on the original pitcher’s ERA, even though he didn’t allow them to score. All his fault? Doesn’t take into account the defense behind him, the ballpark he plays in, luck, etc. etc (I know I’m forgetting something, but I’m sure PWH will bail me out).
It’s important to look at stats like FIP, tRA, etc., because if a pitcher is doing things like not striking out enough hitters (exceptions are sinkerballers and knuckleballers) walking a lot of people, having too high/low BABIPs and strand rates and groundball ratios, etc, we can expect them to regress in one direction or the other. While ERA is a closer approximation to what actually happened on the field in terms of runs allowed, it isn’t all that predictive of future performance the way these stats are, and that’s why we (I) look at these to get a sense of the pitcher’s “true” underlying skill level.
Did that make sense, or was my wording funny?
July 23rd, 200910:37 pm
Paul Lentz..”When is enough, enough?” Ask yourself that buddy. You have posted 500 rants today about the same exact thing. Give it a rest.
July 23rd, 200910:38 pm
i’m not reay to throw in the towel until were 8 out….. then I’ll be saying farewll to Los Bravos for 2009.
Random……….I didnt say make him a starter. I said use him as a pinch hitter (instead of Greg “Mr. 5 for 45″ Norton) and use him when Bobby has to make a double switch with an infielder. Also he can be used to give either Prado, Chipper, or Kotchman a day off. That is how you “ride the hot hand of a bench player”. You dont totally not use him and give precious pinch hitting at-bats to Greg freaking Norton.
July 23rd, 200910:39 pm
Bravo Man….I would have pulled off BETTER deals than Wren. I am NEVER WRONG…NEVER!!! I will be the GM of the braves ONE DAY!!!
July 23rd, 200910:40 pm
Lentz, Not if I get that job 1st Paulie. You can take my calls
Paul Lentz's Shrink on Vacation
I’m worried that one of my patients may not be taking his medication.
July 23rd, 200910:41 pm
yeah I remember seeing something very similar B4 by Stark, but it is apropos to this time of year and I imagine many here have not seen it B4. It talks about relievers which many on here seem to want to add, and how they are so hard to jusge the usage of, and that they seldom have contributed much to their new team.
Lentz…you really do have mantal problems. The team loses one game and you’re having a meltdown. Moylan is going to be here all year..deal with it.
July 23rd, 200910:42 pm
Can you start my fan club??
PWH–I’m not all that familiar with xFIP, but here’s my understanding of all three:
FIP is the basics: HR rate, K rate, BB rate
xFIP: ditto, but normalized HR via some sorta magic with flyball rate (correct?)
tRA: K%, BB%, HR/9, and then FB%, GB%, LD%, all assigned linear weights and it uses regression where necessary (I believe).
I’m new to tRA, so I’m not 100% on it…
Basically what he’s saying is that stats like ERA are great for evaluating teams and important for the actual games. But when you’re trying to compare two individual pitchers, there’s too much statistical noise involved with ERA to know who is really the better pitcher from just that. What these metrics try to do is answer the question: “how good is a pitcher at doing things he can control”. All the pitcher does is throw the ball to home plate and he can either a) allow a HR, b) hit a batter, c) walk a batter, d) strike out a batter, e) allow a ball put in play on the ground, f) allow a ball put in play in the air (fly ball), or g) allow a ball put in play on a line (line drive). Obviously we’re not at the point where we’ve developed metrics good enough to give you a definitive answer just by comparing two numbers. But these metrics try to consider the things I mentioned–only the things the pitcher controls. How good the defense behind him plays, how often fly balls and ground balls find green space, how frequently he gives up a seeing-eye grounder with the bases loaded, etc. aren’t considered. Because in theory (and I think this theory is mostly correct) the pitcher has no control over such events.
July 23rd, 200910:43 pm
Steve from OH…………We will just have to agree that we disagree on some of these issues. We are not going to change each other’s minds. So the best thing to do is wait until the end of the season to revisit the issue of who was right about Peter Moylan, Kelly Johnson, Greg Norton, and Jeff Bennett.
We can take a look at their numbers and see who is right at the end of the season After all, if you say that Moylan, Norton and Kelly’s “past numbers” show that they are “quality” MLB players………then their second half numbers should bear it? After all, they have to be “due” for a hot streak, right?
If you are right, I’ll give you props at the end of the season. However, if you are, I’m sure that you’ll find some way to DUCK AND DODGE giving me my props.
July 23rd, 200910:44 pm
Bravo Man…you’re too much of a MORON to be a GM. A ML GM must be a GENIUS like I am. I am NEVER wrong. I will make the BEST TRADES ever. I will trade KJ, NORTON, and Moylan for Pujols!!1YES.YES!!
Yes, Steve, it takes your FIP and adjusts the HR/FB rate to league average (or maybe park average, THT is stingy about explaining their metrics).
Wish I could watch a peephole vid of Brooks Conrad. That would be pretty sweet!!!
July 23rd, 200910:45 pm
Anyone think Yunel should remain clean-up or remain 5th or 6th?
Brooks…is that really you?? Give me the secret password if it’s really YOU?
July 23rd, 200910:46 pm
I hate Norton
Bravo Man….Yunel will NEVER HIT clean UP again.MORON!!
July 23rd, 200910:47 pm
There are some real childish people on here who feel the need to use other people’s names to make postings.
Brooksy…I KNEW you would come back to me. I HAVE 475 CALLS in to Frank Wren. We’re going to get you back TO the bigs Brooksy. I miss YOU!!
And the D-Bag award of the year goes to…..Paul Lentz…congrats man
July 23rd, 200910:48 pm
Paul Lentz…what DO you MEAN??
chilidog–what PWH said. If you want more info about the theory behind the fact that a pitcher doesn’t have too much control over what happens to a ball in play, google “DIPS Theory” or “Voros McCracken” and you’ll probably find a lot of good info. Heck, there might be some new stuff that’s contradictory to what we’re saying, who knows?
July 23rd, 200910:49 pm
Well…that sng didn’t last long did it?… Online poker gonna send me to an early grave
July 23rd, 200910:50 pm
Bravo Man….I know I’M a D BAG…SO what???? I am always right ABOUT everything so it doesn’t MATTER!!!
Chilidog–this would be a great start:
July 23rd, 200910:51 pm
WTF!? That Paul dude is STILL on here arguing about Kelly? You got up this morning and immediately posted, I know because your first post was like ‘i just got up’ and you have posted like every 10 minutes since then all day long. Perhaps you would be interested in …. oh I don’t know…a job? a pet? friends? a book? a shower? a stroll thru the park? it seems as though the only time you have taken off from the blog is for bathroom breaks since you got here guns blazing about a month ago.
And why has Coach forsaken us? I only see him over at MB’s blog nowadays, being, surprisingly, positive.
John…that’s because you’re NOT listening to ME!!! i KNEW YOU WERE going TO LOSE
Fake Paul Lentz
One Paul Lentz is way too many.
July 23rd, 200910:52 pm
I’m was wrong guys…Norton deserves to be on this team…Conrad belongs in AAA…I’ve had a change of heart….I’m never right…
Yunel's Frosted Tips
You people kill me. No one wants Norton gone more than me, but we meltdown in a game and everyone wants to blame a 2 bit role player for the loss. Here are the reasons we lost:
*Chipper had no interest in playing today, hungover or something’
*Donk’s merry-go-round bullpen antics again
*Braves were “satisfied” because they beat the Freak last nite and thought 3/4 was good enough.
That my friends is why we have all those division titles and only 1 championship. Cox and Chipper don’t show the hunger needed to carry this team to the next level.
July 23rd, 200910:53 pm
keylargo…I just WANT everyone to KNOW that I love BROOKS Conrad!!!! I am ALWAYS RIGHT. I started the Frank Wren BANDWAGON….I actually hired Frank Wren
July 23rd, 200910:55 pm
IMPOSTER!!!! Th REal Paul Lentz would never say he wasn’t RIGHT!!!
There are some truly sick people on here.
Sunburned Braves Fan
July 23rd, 200910:56 pm
Usually when the sock comes out, next step is the mandible claw!
yunel’s frosted tips…I think you’re right. Chipper must have been hung over. Glad you figured that out for us.
July 23rd, 200910:57 pm
This blogs lame
I like him 5th or 6th. I like the new regular lineup, McClouth- Prado- Jones- McCann (sorry Mcfann)- Yunel/Loaf- Loaf/Yunel- Church/Diaz – Krotchy – pitcher
What is frustrating is the fact that Frank Wren got rid of 3 easy outs……….and got lucky when Jeff Bennett injured his hand. We start winning a few games, scoring some runs……..and now he brings back Kelly. Bennett will be back soon. Norton is still with us.
Just cant catch a break.
I hate to say this, but I will make a prediction that we will GET SWEPT in Milwaukee this weekend. Our season is done. Today’s roster move……..along with the continued use of Moylan in crucial situations…….is just a sneak preview of what lies ahead as far as roster moves and the use of the bullpen and reserve players.
I’ll still watch the games and post on here (you cant get rid of me that easy). However, today signaled that the Braves simply cannot sustain any kind of winning success this year. We have NO CHANCE to make the play-offs. We will struggle to win games. By mid-August, we will be 10 games out of first……..and 7 or 8 games out of the wild card. You can bank on it.
Again, sending Brooks Conrad didnt ruin our season. However what it did do was lay the groundwork for how some roster moves are going to be made in the next few weeks. And of how Bobby is going to continue managing. BALLGAME.
Paul Lentz (July 23rd, 2009 9:24 pm, p 15): “Do you know what the sad thing is? It isnt that I was right about Glavine, Smoltz, and Hampton: It was that some many people on here RIPPED Frank Wren and the Braves for not re-signing Smoltz and Hampton AND for releasing Glavine. The fact that SO MANY on here were WRONG about Smoltz, Hampton and Glavine……..is what is so SAD.”
In what regard were you right about Hampton?
I don’t recall anyone ripping Wren when Hampton signed for less $$$ with Houston — they were all too busy ripping Hampton. Are you revising history?
As for Glavine — he wasn’t given a chance to fail at the ML level, so you don’t know if you were right or not (whatever position(s) you might have taken).
And imo, it’s too soon to judge Smoltz’ performance — 5 GS, 25.2 IP. We’ll see. And I think the Wren-rippers in re Smoltz were the minority — I don’t remember having a lot of company back then (I didn’t “rip” Wren, just opined that he had been wrong-footed by the Red Sox, and that it was a mistake not to re-sign Smoltz). Again, most people on this blog were ripping Smoltz at the time.
So cheer up — turns out not to be so SAD after all.
CrimeDog — Nice points @ July 23rd, 2009 9:22 pm, p 15.
The ol’ “no brainer”…John is bb with AA…button raises with QQ…John ai…Button calls…Q on the river…wham bam thank you mam…
July 23rd, 200910:59 pm
Lentz…you really are the dumbest person I have ever come in contact with. Good night dummy.
After I heard I had a stalker on this blog named Paul I couln’t focus in my AAA game and I went 0fer
July 23rd, 200911:02 pm
Amazing a simple swap of bench guys will ruin our entire season. And it only took one game to confirm this theory. Well done.
Braves need to bring in Bobby Lashley!!!
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