If the Bravos make the playoffs this year – mr. Frank Wren should win GM of the year!! Hard to deny the deals/signings he pulled off this offseason and during the year.
Kotchman is what he is. He is a solid 8th hitter, but he isn’t a great guy at driving in a significant amount of runs. I’m glad he isn’t having to bat 2nd, or 4th-6th anymore. That problem is now solved. He just isn’t a great run producer, that’s my point. Thankfully, he doesn’t have to be one anymore.
I say a coupling of Turtle and anyone tepid (that being not really hot) or lukewarm is exceptional.
You know, kinda hard to determine who to pull against in today’s game — Braves need Cubs and Phillies to lose. I don’t know if the Braves can really reel in the Phils. But the wild card is more than within reach.
If the Mets ever get Reyes, Beltran and Delgado, you can’t count them out because they will score runs in bunches then. I still find their pitching to be specious but that lineup, right now, even train wrecks say it’s ugly by comparison.
MFin,
I know that. But now he’s a 7 or 8 hitter with a .280 average and gold-glove caliber defense. For this lineup, the way it’s constructed right now, he serves his purpose. He’s not a middle-of-the-lineup bat. We get that.
Which works out perfectly. Because he doesn’t bat in the middle of the lineup anymore.
Do the Braves have to win 90 games to win the WC? I think the Phillies get to 90 wins, but would be surprised if the Braves do. I think the Rockies/Giants will struggle to get to 90 wins too…that seems like the more likely battle at the end of the season.
Everyone knocking Casey Kotchman layoff! Got to thinking about who to compare Casey with and I thought of Sid Bream, the former 1b with the Braves from 1992-1994. He was an icon, or almost, a very well liked player, immaculate defense, with occassional pop in big moments. I compared Casey’s offense to Sid’s and they are almost identical players. Both with BA. of .260 -.270, Casey’s being the higher, both 10-15 HR a year types, both with OBP. of around .330 -.340 Casey again slightly higher, both slugging in the.410 -.420 range Sid being the slighty higher of the two. Both Casey and Bream are in the mid.700’s OPS. Sid Bream wasn’t so bad,he was insrumental in helping us get to the Series. He was a role player and did his job well. He stabilized the D which is what Casey is doing. Casey has a greater upside though, he has had bigger years in the past with power and OPS. He is only 26 and is still learning National League pitching. Can still remember the playoff game where the Atlanta crowd was cheering SID! SID! SID! It was an awesome sight and sound!
“This is not meant to be critical, but why are we not seeing Medlin or one of the other less used relievers in these blow out games? Seems like they could be getting some actual game experience in low pressure situations, and save some mileage on the horses at the back of the bullpen.”
Also not meant to be critical, but which games are you referring to? It seems that since the break Bobby has done a pretty good job of getting work out of all the BP guys without, so far, overworking any of them. Last night, for instance, he used Moylan, who hadn’t pitched in several days; O’Flaherty (ditto), and Acosta (who had not pitched since last Saturday). The night before he brought in Gonzo (he had pitched the day before, but had a week off prior, and had been warming up when it was close), then brought in Medlin. So over the last two games, that is 5 different pitchers, all of whom had been rested prior to pitching. The other two pitchers we have is of course Soriano, who now has had two days rest, and Logan, who has either 2 or 3 days off. IOW, tonight if we need them we have as fresh of a pen as we have had in a long time, with no long lay-offs for any of them. It can’t always work out that way, but it has this time and I think Bobby has done as well as can be expected to balance the workload.
Someone suggested yesterday that the Wild Card is around 88-90 games. Someone will win that many, so therefore the Braves have to win that many. They’d have an easier time controlling their own destiny and beating the Phillies than hoping that all 7-9 teams fall on their faces. That just won’t happen.
Agree 100%. Wren’s done everything right. With the help from a NY signing Burnett and Peavy staying put. Lowe, Kawakami, Vazquez, McLouth, Anderson, and Church are all solid additions.
Just curious….what do visiting teams do during long stretches like this? For example, i assume that the Giants stayed somewhere downtown last night….then what do they do when they wake up in the morning? Walk around town? Or do they just go straight to practice? I in no way possible, feel sorry but them (can’t wait to beat them again tonight) but am wondering what it must be like to be losing, losing, losing, and then hanging out in the enemy’s town for days….
The thing that bugs me the most about that trade value list is Felix Hernandez is only 17. Most of the players ahead of him I’d give up for King Felix in a heartbeat.
MEB
So do I(Lidge on fantasy)…I did trade Manny for B-Mac because I was loaded with outfielders and had Soto as my catcher…picked up Prado last week and have had D-Lowe the entire season so 3 Braves, 1 Phil and no los Metz on my squad
Mfin what do you mean Kotchman isnt a run producer? He is batting .314 with RISP. That sounds like a run producer to me. He may not hit a bunch of homeruns but he hits plenty of doubles. He isnt a # 3 or 4 guy, but he would still be a pretty good 6 hitter.
I accidentally posted this on the old blog. The Giants are 12-7 on the season when Snape starts. Hopefully, it will be like the Pirates game. He’ll be lights out but the hitting will fail him.
Yeah, I’d have stuck him in the Top 50 at least…I mean, give me a break. At least he was one spot ahead of the Reaper.
Oh, but it’s he’s defense! Hey, his biggest flaw is throwing out runners, no question, but have you noticed how many good blocks he’s made on this homestand? I lost count, but there may be at least two for every game. OK, maybe that’s a bit generous, but still–he’s gotten his body down to block the pitches instead of always trying to backhand them. Have heard a lot of, “Nice stop by McCann.” from our announcers lately.
who by the way has now gotten three straight hits with runners at first and second! Dude is on a Dimaggio-like tear in that situation. Glad to see it’s evening out.
Me, too! I don’t cringe quite as much when he comes up in those spots now!
Steve the same thing said about RBIs could be said about average. You don’t think he should have driven in more runs, being in those situations? Driving in 4 runs with the bases loaded 8 or 9 times is acceptable, for what some call a 6th hitter?
Everytime I see Tim Lincecum on TV, all I want to know is … “Are you guys gonna close the set with ‘Everlong’? That song rocks!”
And why, when I see Lance Berkman, do I wonder if he’s going to hold on to his Sprint Cup points lead?
For the person who asked on the last board, Hampton pitched in 85 games for the Braves, 72 of which mattered. Up until he got hurt in 2005, that trade was fine for us. Other than a nothing prospect, the only piece we gave up was Spooneybarger, and he had to be off of this team because of his attitude.
lincecum reminds me of that dude on the movie dazed and confused…you know the pitcher on the little league team who got his rearend woreout after the game
The Greg Norton Era is done, Bobby. The success of a pinch hitter is a function of a seasonal phenomena, not a career one. With a few exceptions – Manny Mota, Jose Morales, Lenny Harris – the notion of a hot pinch hitter depends on which season you are talking about.
In 2009, Norton does not have “it”. Brooks Conrad does. If it’s a love thing, Bobby (like you had with Keith Lockhart), I am sure that Conrad can grow on you. The only thing Norton has done is show his age – and why he has always been a journeyman.
Bobby, it’s 2009. It just might be Brooks Conrad’s year. Let’s do the right thing by waiving Norton and thanking him for his service. You are wasting valuable PH at-bats with Norton that could be better used by Conrad. Conrad might just be you bench X-factor down the stretch.
To say nothing of the fact that we may have to open up a spot for a suddenly healthy and awakening Kelly Johnson down in Gwinnett. There is no kind way to say this: if you send Conrad down in this scenario (and keep Norton), you are a doddering, blithering idiot!
I guess when you see the Norton’s and Lockhart’s of the baseball world, you see yourself in you BB career. Not a good excuse, Bobby.
“Gone Viral – it is a fact. If it isn’t a fact, then what is your “fact” that proves it wrong?”
This is a joke, right? Am I on Candid Camera? You’re quoting a random site ranked about 700,000th in total traffic as the arbiter of accurate baseball calculations. Just think about that for a second.
Well all of the early games that have gone final have broken in the Braves favor. Even if The Freak gets them tonight it won’t hurt as much, but what a huge boost it would be for the Braves to beat him & pick up games in the process.
Man, Sloan is ridiculously hot. Even my wife thinks she’s fine, which allows me to openly talk about her (only other woman I’m allowed to talk about). I sure hope she’s around the rest of the season.
“Fact Check: The Braves are statistically 3x’s more likely to win the division than the Wild Card.”
You really need to understand how the stat calculator works. The reason our odds are so much higher for the division is that us and the Phillies are really the only clubs with a real shot of making it. And when PECOTA simulates the season one million times, we come out on top a lot more often in a two-team race than we would for a 5 or whatever team race like the wild card. When the wild card is simulated, there are a lot more teams that are recieving “votes,” and hence, your probability goes down, almost by default. Look at the difference between our odds of winning the East versus the Phillies. Then look at our wild-card odds vs. the current favorites the Rockies. We’re an awful lot closer to the leader there then we are in the east, even though our odds are higher in the east. Hey, I’m not a math guy, a stats guy, or a computer guy, but that’s the way I interpret it, anyway…
Doc H: Lowell has a chronically cranky hip and Kotsay is just a back tweak away from the DL. I’d say not deep at all, just insurance for the inevitable.
Gone Viral- MLB.com or ESPN.com used to have those same probabilites on their sight, not sure what happened to them, or if they only add that option closer to the end of the season. It’s legit though.
Eric – Yes average is an individual stat, but RBIs is an individual stat when you are talking about runners already being on base and already in scoring position.
Rockies down 3-2 in the bottom of the 6th. Jimenez made it 6 full frames but he’s thrown 118 pitches and will have to give up the ball. Garland’s only at 74 pitches through 5 and 1/3. Looking good on that front.
Steve – the problem is that it isn’t a 5 team race. It really is a 7-11 team race. The probability of catching one team is ALOT higher than….catching or staying ahead of 7-11 teams (including possible current division leaders).
Mfin you have been saying all day Kotchman isnt a run producer and no body has bought into it. Im done talking about this. Kotchman keeps rallies alive by hitting with RISP, I dont know how anyone cant see that. Just because he doesnt hit alot of homeruns doesnt mean he isnt a run producer. He consistently gets hits and consistently gets on base.
“Does the kid have a high ceiling or is it too early to know?”
Yes. High ceiling. His fastball can hit 97 I hear. But he’s got command/control issues. We’ll see how he works out. Solid return on the pick in my view seeing as a) he signed for slot and b) he’s got good upside for the 3rd round anyway.
Eric – lots of people don’t think he is a run producer. If they did, he wouldn’t be batting 8th. You don’t bat a run producer 8th unless you have a juggernaut of an offense, which the Braves haven’t had until late. And even of late, Casey K hasn’t been the one driving in the runs.
I’m not knocking Casey K, just saying that he isn’t a a great RBI. He is a solid .280-.300 hitter with no power and should win a gold glove.
I haven’t watched Entourage in a while but if Turtle has a job then he wins easily over E. At least Turtle is funny, and if you’re short, it helps if you’re a bigger guy, or if you have the…whatever it is that Ari has. E is neurotic, short, and small. He would get on my nerves in a minute.
are you saying that if you don’t live in a ”braves market’ that new Dish package will get you no atlanta games? i’m in southern ohio and they blacked out last nights game…
beekay… I will never again put Mets or Phillies on my fantasy team. I just cannot root for them even though fantasy is nothing but numbers. Live and learn. I’ve also got Jose Reyes firmly entrenched on my DL. He’s done next to nothing for me all year. My starting pitching staff is loaded with Braves. Doing pretty good with Halladay, Greinke, Jurgens, Vasquez, and Lowe. Wish they wouldn’t have wasted so many win opportunities in the first half.
Frank Wren also tried to sign Burnett and trade for Furcal, give him credit for being willing to take chances and not bringing back Smoltz and Glavine. He has also been lucky on a few of his moves- Vazquez having career year and Furcal fiasco.
“or if they only add that option closer to the end of the season. It’s legit though.”
You’re describing your own flaw. In September, it probably is legit. I’d have to look at the mechanics of it to say for sure, but those calculations are easy enough to quantify at that point. In July, they’re laughably impossible due to the various unknowns. It’s the difference between having 60% of the picture and 85%. That’s why we were at 6% yesterday and 9% today, a 50% spike in our wild card potential. Things wildly fluctuate for a reason. It happens when they’re unreliable and inaccurate.
The mere fact that we had a three point bounce on a six point poll should be more than enough to logically determine that.
Driving in 4 runs with the bases loaded 8 or 9 times is acceptable, for what some call a 6th hitter?
Look, dude, I realize that RBI have been the cornerstone for about forever in baseball circles, but please, think for just a second. What Kotchman does by his own ability and no one else’s can have an effect of wild variance over his overall RBI number. Are his teammates on base? Are they in scoring position? Are they running the bases correctly? Did Kotchman “suck” and hit a rope single to a guy with a great arm, hence giving the runner no chance to score? Is the runner on second Brian McCann? What position is he batting in the lineup? I could go on for days, but the point is that A) RBI are pretty stupid, B)using them makes you look stupid, and C) please stop using them.
Steve the same thing said about RBIs could be said about average.
I realize that this might seem “nerdy” to you, or “dorky,” but you could “add” the OBP and SLG that DOB kindly presented in his blog, and find that his OPS is over .800 in those situations, and hence, “good.” Oh, and while batting average is kinda sucky, it is kinda valuable for RISP situations, since a hit would be more valuable than it typically would be over a walk there (though a walk would still be pretty valuable).
One would think that if you had 23 hits with RISP, that you’d drive in a lot more runs than 29.
Here’s a question: what if there was exactly one runner on second base every time he stepped to the plate? Wouldn’t that decrease his RBI odds some? Wouldn’t that be something outside of his control that would negatively effect his RBI totals, even if his true ability-driven stats remained good?
What’s the details on Paul Konerko’s contract? Is he just signed through this year? Also, Mark Reynolds and Chad Qualls from the D-Backs could help the Braves
Heath
Yeah definately a braves market bc they black out espn for games on direct and what not. I live 3 hours from atl and about 3 from cincy so they both get blacked out. Go figure I dont know any cincy fans
The Phillies were 43-38 before their winning streak. Obviously they aren’t going to lose 10 in a row, but they will come back down to earth. Their starting pitching is weak and even Lidge and the bullpen aren’t great this year.
For the Braves to make the playoffs they are going to need the Phillies to falter but I really can see that happening. Their offense can be shutdown by great pitching, and the Braves have great pitching.
Eric from MO,
I gotta disagree. The Phillies are a team that can absolutely pound mediocre pitching, such that their mediocre pitching can pitch flat out bad and they’ll still win. Early in the season, every team’s still in the race, no team has started selling off players, and everyone’s still got something to play for. As the season goes on, teams start to lose hope and players. The Phillies are the type of team that will destroy these teams. Considering they play 47 of 76 games in the 2nd half against sub-.500 teams, I think they’re going to have no trouble running away with the NL East.
Mfin and anyone else who want to debate about why RBI isnt important please read Steve’s 5:08 post. I didnt think all that had to be explained but obviously you all arent intelligent enough to understand why RBI’s is an overated stat.
first base is an offensive position–either power or high average and kotchman is neither….if the braves had a firstbaseman that met expectations the line up would be immediately deeper konerko for example…you’d have 4-konerko, 5-b mac 6 yunel 7 Ga 8 church…no breathers in there..
Steve
Posted this last blog about draft picks, looks like we are doing a good job signing them and from what I hear yhe #1 pick will sign shortly before deadline near the slotted amountbeekay
July 22nd, 2009
11:41 am
More draft news…18 of 22 signed!
The Braves may have already agreed to terms with their first round pick, Mike Minor
by gondeee on Jul 17, 2009 4:17 PM EDT in Minor League News 20 comments
From Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein, we get this note that could explain why a lot of first round picks have yet to sign this year, including the Braves first round pick, Mike Minor:
What they might be waiting for is simply a deal that matches last year’s slot, as opposed to the ten percent reductions, which in the cases of Minor and Leake are differences approaching $250,000, not exactly a trivial sum of money. Still it’s enough to create either a situation [where] there is a stalemate between the team and the player, or in many cases, there may already be a deal in place, but Major League Baseball will not recognize it until late in the signing period, for fear of a domino effect of over-slot bonuses, which of course will happen anyway.
Some have called this the “Jason Heyward effect,” referring to the Braves’ first-round pick in 2007, also a year in which the slots were reduced by ten percent. The Braves and Heyward agreed early to a deal for the previous year’s slot, but could not announce the signing until the deadline approached. “It’s monumentally stupid,” said one front-office official. “Everybody talks to each other, everybody knows who is going to sign for what, all this does is hinder a kid’s development.”
I guess every team wants to “pretend” to play by the rules, until they can claim an 11th hour necessity to spend more money. At least that’s the illusion that MLB wants to create. With as close as Minor is supposed to be to the majors, missing half a season is a big deal, so yeah — this is monumentally stupid.
Speaking of Jason Heyward, Goldstein also passes along this note in another column about how hot Heyward is in double-A:
In his first 10 Double-A games, the 19-year-old outfielder is batting .417/.476/.639. He’s suddenly developing at a tremendous pace, and one has to wonder if he’s suddenly in line for a September look, as one of the reasons he stayed with the big league team so long this spring is that manager Bobby Cox just liked watching him play so much.
Yeah, the more I think about it, the more it makes sense for the Braves to see if Heyward can (a) hit major league pitching and (b) help them in any potential playoff run. If he keeps hitting .400, then, yeah, he’ll be up.
Meanwhile, our 2nd pick in this year’s draft (3rd round), David Hale, signed for exact 2009 slot money — $405,000.
The Braves have now signed 18 of their first 22 picks. Along with Minor, 6th round pick Ryan Wooley, 15th round pick Bennett Pickar, and 22nd round pick Ryan Weber remain unsigned.
Heath I was just meaning the Phillies are streaky and unpredictable. The past two years the Phillies have made the postseason, but only because the Mets have had two of the bigget chokes ever.
Tonight is when the Braves will choke.. The Phillies already lost and we have a shot at gaining a game on them in the division so this is where the Braves will piss away the game and stay 6.5 behind the Phillies.. The Braves have been playing great baseball lately, but we are in for a let down at some point so this is where I feel it will be..
Beekay–didn’t see it, but thanks for pointing it out. It’s nice that we signed all of our picks, at least. Man, if Minor doesn’t sign, just think of the draft we’ll have next year…it’ll be like Christmas…
1,930 comments Add your comment
BIG DUDE
July 22nd, 2009
4:37 pm
If the Bravos make the playoffs this year – mr. Frank Wren should win GM of the year!! Hard to deny the deals/signings he pulled off this offseason and during the year.
Thanks FRANK!!
ChurchMan
July 22nd, 2009
4:38 pm
Don’t falter now that Philly has lost a game Braves, keep up the pressure and make good use out of this opportunity!!!
MFin04
July 22nd, 2009
4:38 pm
Kotchman is what he is. He is a solid 8th hitter, but he isn’t a great guy at driving in a significant amount of runs. I’m glad he isn’t having to bat 2nd, or 4th-6th anymore. That problem is now solved. He just isn’t a great run producer, that’s my point. Thankfully, he doesn’t have to be one anymore.
MEB
July 22nd, 2009
4:38 pm
I’ve got Lidge on my fantasy team. He’s killing me!
GO BRAVES!!!
StingerSplash
July 22nd, 2009
4:38 pm
I say a coupling of Turtle and anyone tepid (that being not really hot) or lukewarm is exceptional.
You know, kinda hard to determine who to pull against in today’s game — Braves need Cubs and Phillies to lose. I don’t know if the Braves can really reel in the Phils. But the wild card is more than within reach.
If the Mets ever get Reyes, Beltran and Delgado, you can’t count them out because they will score runs in bunches then. I still find their pitching to be specious but that lineup, right now, even train wrecks say it’s ugly by comparison.
chilidog75
July 22nd, 2009
4:39 pm
MFin,
I know that. But now he’s a 7 or 8 hitter with a .280 average and gold-glove caliber defense. For this lineup, the way it’s constructed right now, he serves his purpose. He’s not a middle-of-the-lineup bat. We get that.
Which works out perfectly. Because he doesn’t bat in the middle of the lineup anymore.
Fun Stat of the Day
July 22nd, 2009
4:39 pm
Brad Lidge’s ERA —-> 7.20
Heath (Cleveland)
July 22nd, 2009
4:40 pm
MFin04 -
Do the Braves have to win 90 games to win the WC? I think the Phillies get to 90 wins, but would be surprised if the Braves do. I think the Rockies/Giants will struggle to get to 90 wins too…that seems like the more likely battle at the end of the season.
PWHjort
July 22nd, 2009
4:40 pm
The Phillies lost? That’s un-heard of. Human sacrifice. Dogs and cats living together……. MASS HYSTERIA!
Rob from SC
July 22nd, 2009
4:41 pm
for me, the key to beating Lincecum is to score first, don’t let him coast. Keep the pressure on him
monty
July 22nd, 2009
4:41 pm
Everyone knocking Casey Kotchman layoff! Got to thinking about who to compare Casey with and I thought of Sid Bream, the former 1b with the Braves from 1992-1994. He was an icon, or almost, a very well liked player, immaculate defense, with occassional pop in big moments. I compared Casey’s offense to Sid’s and they are almost identical players. Both with BA. of .260 -.270, Casey’s being the higher, both 10-15 HR a year types, both with OBP. of around .330 -.340 Casey again slightly higher, both slugging in the.410 -.420 range Sid being the slighty higher of the two. Both Casey and Bream are in the mid.700’s OPS. Sid Bream wasn’t so bad,he was insrumental in helping us get to the Series. He was a role player and did his job well. He stabilized the D which is what Casey is doing. Casey has a greater upside though, he has had bigger years in the past with power and OPS. He is only 26 and is still learning National League pitching. Can still remember the playoff game where the Atlanta crowd was cheering SID! SID! SID! It was an awesome sight and sound!
AndyC
July 22nd, 2009
4:41 pm
monty
So that means if the Phils beat all of the Wildcard competitors that will make it easier for the Braves to win the Wildcard right?
wjones
July 22nd, 2009
4:42 pm
“This is not meant to be critical, but why are we not seeing Medlin or one of the other less used relievers in these blow out games? Seems like they could be getting some actual game experience in low pressure situations, and save some mileage on the horses at the back of the bullpen.”
Also not meant to be critical, but which games are you referring to? It seems that since the break Bobby has done a pretty good job of getting work out of all the BP guys without, so far, overworking any of them. Last night, for instance, he used Moylan, who hadn’t pitched in several days; O’Flaherty (ditto), and Acosta (who had not pitched since last Saturday). The night before he brought in Gonzo (he had pitched the day before, but had a week off prior, and had been warming up when it was close), then brought in Medlin. So over the last two games, that is 5 different pitchers, all of whom had been rested prior to pitching. The other two pitchers we have is of course Soriano, who now has had two days rest, and Logan, who has either 2 or 3 days off. IOW, tonight if we need them we have as fresh of a pen as we have had in a long time, with no long lay-offs for any of them. It can’t always work out that way, but it has this time and I think Bobby has done as well as can be expected to balance the workload.
MFin04
July 22nd, 2009
4:42 pm
Someone suggested yesterday that the Wild Card is around 88-90 games. Someone will win that many, so therefore the Braves have to win that many. They’d have an easier time controlling their own destiny and beating the Phillies than hoping that all 7-9 teams fall on their faces. That just won’t happen.
BravoMan
July 22nd, 2009
4:42 pm
Big Dude,
Agree 100%. Wren’s done everything right. With the help from a NY signing Burnett and Peavy staying put. Lowe, Kawakami, Vazquez, McLouth, Anderson, and Church are all solid additions.
southern hope
July 22nd, 2009
4:42 pm
you guys know things.
Just curious….what do visiting teams do during long stretches like this? For example, i assume that the Giants stayed somewhere downtown last night….then what do they do when they wake up in the morning? Walk around town? Or do they just go straight to practice? I in no way possible, feel sorry but them (can’t wait to beat them again tonight) but am wondering what it must be like to be losing, losing, losing, and then hanging out in the enemy’s town for days….
PWHjort
July 22nd, 2009
4:42 pm
The thing that bugs me the most about that trade value list is Felix Hernandez is only 17. Most of the players ahead of him I’d give up for King Felix in a heartbeat.
beekay
July 22nd, 2009
4:44 pm
MEB
So do I(Lidge on fantasy)…I did trade Manny for B-Mac because I was loaded with outfielders and had Soto as my catcher…picked up Prado last week and have had D-Lowe the entire season so 3 Braves, 1 Phil and no los Metz on my squad
Heath (Cleveland)
July 22nd, 2009
4:44 pm
If the Braves and D-backs win tonight….you can bet that I will be checking out those play-off odds…
Bigchiefrg
July 22nd, 2009
4:44 pm
I think ‘cousin it’ is a better nickname for lincecum but I guess he is a freak too.
Heath (Cleveland)
July 22nd, 2009
4:45 pm
(D-backs still lead the Rockies.)
BravoMan
July 22nd, 2009
4:45 pm
Don’t forget about Florida up 1 on SD in top 5th. No one’s really concerned about them tho. MLB Trade Rumors said they’ll be sellers at the deadline.
THWG
July 22nd, 2009
4:45 pm
Off to the game, let’s beat the freak!!!
beekay
July 22nd, 2009
4:46 pm
I heard Turtle proved he didn’t have turtle like features rumor has it he is hung like Smarty Jones
Eric from MO
July 22nd, 2009
4:47 pm
Mfin what do you mean Kotchman isnt a run producer? He is batting .314 with RISP. That sounds like a run producer to me. He may not hit a bunch of homeruns but he hits plenty of doubles. He isnt a # 3 or 4 guy, but he would still be a pretty good 6 hitter.
RonnieFranchise
July 22nd, 2009
4:48 pm
Turtle by far wins the race for improbable/never would happen. But, Sloan is the prize there, did she have a touch up?
Steve from OH
July 22nd, 2009
4:48 pm
One would think that if you had 23 hits with RISP, that you’d drive in a lot more runs than 29.
And herein lies the (one of many) flaws of RBI. And why anyone with half a brain shouldn’t use RBI as the centerpiece of their analysis.
Gone Viral
July 22nd, 2009
4:49 pm
I accidentally posted this on the old blog. The Giants are 12-7 on the season when Snape starts. Hopefully, it will be like the Pirates game. He’ll be lights out but the hitting will fail him.
The Bravery
July 22nd, 2009
4:49 pm
I checked Dish last night on channel 499 as was said on the bloggage but it wasnt there. Any ideas if its different in middle TN?
CLE
July 22nd, 2009
4:49 pm
So when are the Mets slated to get Beltran, Delgado and Reyes back? I keep forgetting that they’re an injury-plagued team right now.
McFann ;Ô;
July 22nd, 2009
4:50 pm
chilidog75–
Yeah, I’d have stuck him in the Top 50 at least…I mean, give me a break. At least he was one spot ahead of the Reaper.
Oh, but it’s he’s defense! Hey, his biggest flaw is throwing out runners, no question, but have you noticed how many good blocks he’s made on this homestand? I lost count, but there may be at least two for every game. OK, maybe that’s a bit generous, but still–he’s gotten his body down to block the pitches instead of always trying to backhand them. Have heard a lot of, “Nice stop by McCann.” from our announcers lately.
who by the way has now gotten three straight hits with runners at first and second! Dude is on a Dimaggio-like tear in that situation. Glad to see it’s evening out.
Me, too! I don’t cringe quite as much when he comes up in those spots now!
(Of course, now that I said that……)
Gone Viral
July 22nd, 2009
4:50 pm
“Fact Check: The Braves are statistically 3x’s more likely to win the division than the Wild Card.”
That’s not a fact. That’s someone quoting a very bad probability calculator as fact.
Here’s some advice I think could really help some of you: just because it’s on the internet does NOT make it a fact.
StingerSplash
July 22nd, 2009
4:50 pm
Didn’t Sloan (Emmanuelle Chriqui) throw out a first pitch at Dodger Stadium earlier this year?
cphizzle
July 22nd, 2009
4:50 pm
think that may be 449 Bravery at least in the North AL is was
Steve from OH
July 22nd, 2009
4:51 pm
I don’t know if it’s been noted here yet, but the Braves signed 2nd overall pick David Hale.
Doc Holiday
July 22nd, 2009
4:51 pm
So the redsox now have LOWELL + Kotsay + youkilis + laroche on their corner IF………..that is deep, fellows.
PWHjort
July 22nd, 2009
4:51 pm
“And why anyone with half a brain shouldn’t use RBI as the centerpiece of their analysis.” (Steve from OH)
Why shouldn’t you use RBI as the centerpiece of your analysis? There’s clearly no statistical noise there. Counting stats are awesome!
MFin04
July 22nd, 2009
4:51 pm
Steve the same thing said about RBIs could be said about average. You don’t think he should have driven in more runs, being in those situations? Driving in 4 runs with the bases loaded 8 or 9 times is acceptable, for what some call a 6th hitter?
pryguy
July 22nd, 2009
4:52 pm
Thanks for the new blog Dave. Let’s keep this hitting up fellas.
McFann ;Ô;
July 22nd, 2009
4:52 pm
beekay–
Wait a minute…you went with John Grove at catcher over BMac??
Please have a very very very good reason for that!
StingerSplash
July 22nd, 2009
4:52 pm
Everytime I see Tim Lincecum on TV, all I want to know is … “Are you guys gonna close the set with ‘Everlong’? That song rocks!”
And why, when I see Lance Berkman, do I wonder if he’s going to hold on to his Sprint Cup points lead?
MFin04
July 22nd, 2009
4:53 pm
Gone Viral – it is a fact. If it isn’t a fact, then what is your “fact” that proves it wrong?
Gone Viral
July 22nd, 2009
4:54 pm
For the person who asked on the last board, Hampton pitched in 85 games for the Braves, 72 of which mattered. Up until he got hurt in 2005, that trade was fine for us. Other than a nothing prospect, the only piece we gave up was Spooneybarger, and he had to be off of this team because of his attitude.
Heath (Cleveland)
July 22nd, 2009
4:54 pm
Bravery -
Are you sure you are considered to be in a Braves market? If you are not, you probably will not get it.
cphizzle
July 22nd, 2009
4:54 pm
lincecum reminds me of that dude on the movie dazed and confused…you know the pitcher on the little league team who got his rearend woreout after the game
MiaBchBravesFan
July 22nd, 2009
4:55 pm
Time to really beat the drums on this issue:
The Greg Norton Era is done, Bobby. The success of a pinch hitter is a function of a seasonal phenomena, not a career one. With a few exceptions – Manny Mota, Jose Morales, Lenny Harris – the notion of a hot pinch hitter depends on which season you are talking about.
In 2009, Norton does not have “it”. Brooks Conrad does. If it’s a love thing, Bobby (like you had with Keith Lockhart), I am sure that Conrad can grow on you. The only thing Norton has done is show his age – and why he has always been a journeyman.
Bobby, it’s 2009. It just might be Brooks Conrad’s year. Let’s do the right thing by waiving Norton and thanking him for his service. You are wasting valuable PH at-bats with Norton that could be better used by Conrad. Conrad might just be you bench X-factor down the stretch.
To say nothing of the fact that we may have to open up a spot for a suddenly healthy and awakening Kelly Johnson down in Gwinnett. There is no kind way to say this: if you send Conrad down in this scenario (and keep Norton), you are a doddering, blithering idiot!
I guess when you see the Norton’s and Lockhart’s of the baseball world, you see yourself in you BB career. Not a good excuse, Bobby.
Because Bobby, Norton is just an X in 2009.
Gone Viral
July 22nd, 2009
4:56 pm
“Gone Viral – it is a fact. If it isn’t a fact, then what is your “fact” that proves it wrong?”
This is a joke, right? Am I on Candid Camera? You’re quoting a random site ranked about 700,000th in total traffic as the arbiter of accurate baseball calculations. Just think about that for a second.
fastasballs
July 22nd, 2009
4:57 pm
Well all of the early games that have gone final have broken in the Braves favor. Even if The Freak gets them tonight it won’t hurt as much, but what a huge boost it would be for the Braves to beat him & pick up games in the process.
Eric from MO
July 22nd, 2009
4:57 pm
MFin BA and RBI stats are completely different. BA is based on the player while RBI is based on other players.
MFin04
July 22nd, 2009
4:57 pm
Heath – I just looked up the Wild Card #’s from 2008-2005. The NL WC winner has won, 90,90,89,88 the last 4 seasons.
Eware
July 22nd, 2009
4:57 pm
Man, Sloan is ridiculously hot. Even my wife thinks she’s fine, which allows me to openly talk about her (only other woman I’m allowed to talk about). I sure hope she’s around the rest of the season.
Steve from OH
July 22nd, 2009
4:58 pm
“Fact Check: The Braves are statistically 3x’s more likely to win the division than the Wild Card.”
You really need to understand how the stat calculator works. The reason our odds are so much higher for the division is that us and the Phillies are really the only clubs with a real shot of making it. And when PECOTA simulates the season one million times, we come out on top a lot more often in a two-team race than we would for a 5 or whatever team race like the wild card. When the wild card is simulated, there are a lot more teams that are recieving “votes,” and hence, your probability goes down, almost by default. Look at the difference between our odds of winning the East versus the Phillies. Then look at our wild-card odds vs. the current favorites the Rockies. We’re an awful lot closer to the leader there then we are in the east, even though our odds are higher in the east. Hey, I’m not a math guy, a stats guy, or a computer guy, but that’s the way I interpret it, anyway…
MiaBchBravesFan
July 22nd, 2009
4:58 pm
Doc H: Lowell has a chronically cranky hip and Kotsay is just a back tweak away from the DL. I’d say not deep at all, just insurance for the inevitable.
MFin04
July 22nd, 2009
4:59 pm
Gone Viral- MLB.com or ESPN.com used to have those same probabilites on their sight, not sure what happened to them, or if they only add that option closer to the end of the season. It’s legit though.
Eric – Yes average is an individual stat, but RBIs is an individual stat when you are talking about runners already being on base and already in scoring position.
Buffalo NY Braves Fan
July 22nd, 2009
5:00 pm
Gone Viral,
You mean this banner is wrong and I didn’t just win a free trip to Tahiti?
Frankie Knuckles
July 22nd, 2009
5:01 pm
Anyone have any info/scouting on David Hale? Does the kid have a high ceiling or is it too early to know?
PWHjort
July 22nd, 2009
5:01 pm
Rockies down 3-2 in the bottom of the 6th. Jimenez made it 6 full frames but he’s thrown 118 pitches and will have to give up the ball. Garland’s only at 74 pitches through 5 and 1/3. Looking good on that front.
Doc Holiday
July 22nd, 2009
5:01 pm
If we beat that rock&roll guy tonight, we can start thinking very very serious about playoffs.
MFin04
July 22nd, 2009
5:01 pm
Steve – the problem is that it isn’t a 5 team race. It really is a 7-11 team race. The probability of catching one team is ALOT higher than….catching or staying ahead of 7-11 teams (including possible current division leaders).
Nova Scotia Steve
July 22nd, 2009
5:01 pm
Ricky Nolasco is absolutely dealing for the Marlins today against the Padres….1 hit through 5 innings and 8 K’s so far.
Eric from MO
July 22nd, 2009
5:02 pm
Mfin you have been saying all day Kotchman isnt a run producer and no body has bought into it. Im done talking about this. Kotchman keeps rallies alive by hitting with RISP, I dont know how anyone cant see that. Just because he doesnt hit alot of homeruns doesnt mean he isnt a run producer. He consistently gets hits and consistently gets on base.
Home of the BRAVE
July 22nd, 2009
5:02 pm
Lets end the freaks streak!!
Heath (Cleveland)
July 22nd, 2009
5:03 pm
MFin09 -
I have been using 90 wins for a reason…
…the Phils are going to have more 90 wins, though. Do you disagree? Do you think they will not be able to go atleast 37-33 to finish the season?
beekay
July 22nd, 2009
5:03 pm
McFann
It was an auto draft and I had to give up Manny to get him but he is certainly worth it!!
cphizzle
July 22nd, 2009
5:03 pm
beat the freak…beat the freak…beat the freak!!!!
Gone Viral
July 22nd, 2009
5:04 pm
“Gone Viral,
You mean this banner is wrong and I didn’t just win a free trip to Tahiti?”
I hope you didn’t buy sunscreen already. That’s all I’m saying.
PWHjort
July 22nd, 2009
5:04 pm
“Does the kid have a high ceiling or is it too early to know?”
Yes. High ceiling. His fastball can hit 97 I hear. But he’s got command/control issues. We’ll see how he works out. Solid return on the pick in my view seeing as a) he signed for slot and b) he’s got good upside for the 3rd round anyway.
Dude...Seriously?
July 22nd, 2009
5:04 pm
Eric from MO July 22nd, 2009 4:57 pm
MFin BA and RBI stats are completely different. BA is based on the player while RBI is based on other players.
RBI based on other players? Doesn’t the batter have to produce a run – scoring action of some sort in order to produce an RBI?
Geez..
MFin04
July 22nd, 2009
5:05 pm
Eric – lots of people don’t think he is a run producer. If they did, he wouldn’t be batting 8th. You don’t bat a run producer 8th unless you have a juggernaut of an offense, which the Braves haven’t had until late. And even of late, Casey K hasn’t been the one driving in the runs.
I’m not knocking Casey K, just saying that he isn’t a a great RBI. He is a solid .280-.300 hitter with no power and should win a gold glove.
RHR
July 22nd, 2009
5:06 pm
I haven’t watched Entourage in a while but if Turtle has a job then he wins easily over E. At least Turtle is funny, and if you’re short, it helps if you’re a bigger guy, or if you have the…whatever it is that Ari has. E is neurotic, short, and small. He would get on my nerves in a minute.
MiaBchBravesFan
July 22nd, 2009
5:06 pm
Give him a black t-shirt and black rimmed glasses, and Lincecum looks like one of the Ramones.
Eric from MO
July 22nd, 2009
5:06 pm
Heath do you remember the Phills June? They could easily go 30-40. There pitching is unreliable.
Eric from MO
July 22nd, 2009
5:07 pm
Yes Dude, but doesnt somebody have to be on base to produce that run?
blazon
July 22nd, 2009
5:07 pm
heath…
are you saying that if you don’t live in a ”braves market’ that new Dish package will get you no atlanta games? i’m in southern ohio and they blacked out last nights game…
MEB
July 22nd, 2009
5:07 pm
beekay… I will never again put Mets or Phillies on my fantasy team. I just cannot root for them even though fantasy is nothing but numbers. Live and learn. I’ve also got Jose Reyes firmly entrenched on my DL. He’s done next to nothing for me all year. My starting pitching staff is loaded with Braves. Doing pretty good with Halladay, Greinke, Jurgens, Vasquez, and Lowe. Wish they wouldn’t have wasted so many win opportunities in the first half.
GO BRAVES!!!
CB
July 22nd, 2009
5:07 pm
Frank Wren also tried to sign Burnett and trade for Furcal, give him credit for being willing to take chances and not bringing back Smoltz and Glavine. He has also been lucky on a few of his moves- Vazquez having career year and Furcal fiasco.
Gone Viral
July 22nd, 2009
5:08 pm
“or if they only add that option closer to the end of the season. It’s legit though.”
You’re describing your own flaw. In September, it probably is legit. I’d have to look at the mechanics of it to say for sure, but those calculations are easy enough to quantify at that point. In July, they’re laughably impossible due to the various unknowns. It’s the difference between having 60% of the picture and 85%. That’s why we were at 6% yesterday and 9% today, a 50% spike in our wild card potential. Things wildly fluctuate for a reason. It happens when they’re unreliable and inaccurate.
The mere fact that we had a three point bounce on a six point poll should be more than enough to logically determine that.
Heath (Cleveland)
July 22nd, 2009
5:08 pm
D-backs still lead the Rockies going to the top of the 7th.
Steve from OH
July 22nd, 2009
5:08 pm
Driving in 4 runs with the bases loaded 8 or 9 times is acceptable, for what some call a 6th hitter?
Look, dude, I realize that RBI have been the cornerstone for about forever in baseball circles, but please, think for just a second. What Kotchman does by his own ability and no one else’s can have an effect of wild variance over his overall RBI number. Are his teammates on base? Are they in scoring position? Are they running the bases correctly? Did Kotchman “suck” and hit a rope single to a guy with a great arm, hence giving the runner no chance to score? Is the runner on second Brian McCann? What position is he batting in the lineup? I could go on for days, but the point is that A) RBI are pretty stupid, B)using them makes you look stupid, and C) please stop using them.
Steve the same thing said about RBIs could be said about average.
I realize that this might seem “nerdy” to you, or “dorky,” but you could “add” the OBP and SLG that DOB kindly presented in his blog, and find that his OPS is over .800 in those situations, and hence, “good.” Oh, and while batting average is kinda sucky, it is kinda valuable for RISP situations, since a hit would be more valuable than it typically would be over a walk there (though a walk would still be pretty valuable).
One would think that if you had 23 hits with RISP, that you’d drive in a lot more runs than 29.
Here’s a question: what if there was exactly one runner on second base every time he stepped to the plate? Wouldn’t that decrease his RBI odds some? Wouldn’t that be something outside of his control that would negatively effect his RBI totals, even if his true ability-driven stats remained good?
nolie
July 22nd, 2009
5:08 pm
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/joe_posnanski/07/21/top.100/3.html
Posnanski’s Top 100 players right now
Eric from MO
July 22nd, 2009
5:09 pm
Mfin, he is batting 7th and we also have better run producers, that doesnt make CK a bad run producer.
Eric from MO
July 22nd, 2009
5:10 pm
Also to say he has no power implies he is a singles hitter, which he is not.
Heath (Cleveland)
July 22nd, 2009
5:10 pm
Eric from MO -
They had a bad June…yeah, that’s true. But they have not played THAT poorly over 70 games either. You’re reaching. But I like the positive attitude!
UNCBrave
July 22nd, 2009
5:11 pm
What’s the details on Paul Konerko’s contract? Is he just signed through this year? Also, Mark Reynolds and Chad Qualls from the D-Backs could help the Braves
The Bravery
July 22nd, 2009
5:11 pm
Heath
Yeah definately a braves market bc they black out espn for games on direct and what not. I live 3 hours from atl and about 3 from cincy so they both get blacked out. Go figure I dont know any cincy fans
MFin04
July 22nd, 2009
5:11 pm
The Phillies were 43-38 before their winning streak. Obviously they aren’t going to lose 10 in a row, but they will come back down to earth. Their starting pitching is weak and even Lidge and the bullpen aren’t great this year.
For the Braves to make the playoffs they are going to need the Phillies to falter but I really can see that happening. Their offense can be shutdown by great pitching, and the Braves have great pitching.
PWHjort
July 22nd, 2009
5:11 pm
Eric from MO,
I gotta disagree. The Phillies are a team that can absolutely pound mediocre pitching, such that their mediocre pitching can pitch flat out bad and they’ll still win. Early in the season, every team’s still in the race, no team has started selling off players, and everyone’s still got something to play for. As the season goes on, teams start to lose hope and players. The Phillies are the type of team that will destroy these teams. Considering they play 47 of 76 games in the 2nd half against sub-.500 teams, I think they’re going to have no trouble running away with the NL East.
Eric from MO
July 22nd, 2009
5:13 pm
Mfin and anyone else who want to debate about why RBI isnt important please read Steve’s 5:08 post. I didnt think all that had to be explained but obviously you all arent intelligent enough to understand why RBI’s is an overated stat.
Good Post Steve.
UNCBrave
July 22nd, 2009
5:13 pm
San Diego and Washington are the 2 worst teams in MLB…Watch out for the Fish…..Oh, and by the way, the Phillies win tomorrow, they play SAN DIEGO
McFann ;Ô;
July 22nd, 2009
5:13 pm
beekay–
Oh, auto-draft. Yeah, see, I really have no clue about Fantasy Baseball…But at least you got him, now!
I had to give up Manny to get him but he is certainly worth it!!
Of course. He’s way worth more than Mr. Dreadlocks!
semiballcoach
July 22nd, 2009
5:14 pm
first base is an offensive position–either power or high average and kotchman is neither….if the braves had a firstbaseman that met expectations the line up would be immediately deeper konerko for example…you’d have 4-konerko, 5-b mac 6 yunel 7 Ga 8 church…no breathers in there..
LuisG
July 22nd, 2009
5:14 pm
Ok, let’s get past that Rochy thing. Dealt to the Red Sucks.
beekay
July 22nd, 2009
5:14 pm
Steve
Posted this last blog about draft picks, looks like we are doing a good job signing them and from what I hear yhe #1 pick will sign shortly before deadline near the slotted amountbeekay
July 22nd, 2009
11:41 am
More draft news…18 of 22 signed!
The Braves may have already agreed to terms with their first round pick, Mike Minor
by gondeee on Jul 17, 2009 4:17 PM EDT in Minor League News 20 comments
From Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein, we get this note that could explain why a lot of first round picks have yet to sign this year, including the Braves first round pick, Mike Minor:
What they might be waiting for is simply a deal that matches last year’s slot, as opposed to the ten percent reductions, which in the cases of Minor and Leake are differences approaching $250,000, not exactly a trivial sum of money. Still it’s enough to create either a situation [where] there is a stalemate between the team and the player, or in many cases, there may already be a deal in place, but Major League Baseball will not recognize it until late in the signing period, for fear of a domino effect of over-slot bonuses, which of course will happen anyway.
Some have called this the “Jason Heyward effect,” referring to the Braves’ first-round pick in 2007, also a year in which the slots were reduced by ten percent. The Braves and Heyward agreed early to a deal for the previous year’s slot, but could not announce the signing until the deadline approached. “It’s monumentally stupid,” said one front-office official. “Everybody talks to each other, everybody knows who is going to sign for what, all this does is hinder a kid’s development.”
I guess every team wants to “pretend” to play by the rules, until they can claim an 11th hour necessity to spend more money. At least that’s the illusion that MLB wants to create. With as close as Minor is supposed to be to the majors, missing half a season is a big deal, so yeah — this is monumentally stupid.
Speaking of Jason Heyward, Goldstein also passes along this note in another column about how hot Heyward is in double-A:
In his first 10 Double-A games, the 19-year-old outfielder is batting .417/.476/.639. He’s suddenly developing at a tremendous pace, and one has to wonder if he’s suddenly in line for a September look, as one of the reasons he stayed with the big league team so long this spring is that manager Bobby Cox just liked watching him play so much.
Yeah, the more I think about it, the more it makes sense for the Braves to see if Heyward can (a) hit major league pitching and (b) help them in any potential playoff run. If he keeps hitting .400, then, yeah, he’ll be up.
Meanwhile, our 2nd pick in this year’s draft (3rd round), David Hale, signed for exact 2009 slot money — $405,000.
The Braves have now signed 18 of their first 22 picks. Along with Minor, 6th round pick Ryan Wooley, 15th round pick Bennett Pickar, and 22nd round pick Ryan Weber remain unsigned.
McFann ;Ô;
July 22nd, 2009
5:15 pm
Nolie–
Yeah, I saw that list.
MFin04 Obviously [the Fillies] aren’t going to lose 10 in a row
We did it in ‘06.
Eric from MO
July 22nd, 2009
5:15 pm
Heath I was just meaning the Phillies are streaky and unpredictable. The past two years the Phillies have made the postseason, but only because the Mets have had two of the bigget chokes ever.
BravesfaninWis
July 22nd, 2009
5:16 pm
Tonight is when the Braves will choke.. The Phillies already lost and we have a shot at gaining a game on them in the division so this is where the Braves will piss away the game and stay 6.5 behind the Phillies.. The Braves have been playing great baseball lately, but we are in for a let down at some point so this is where I feel it will be..
Dude...Seriously?
July 22nd, 2009
5:17 pm
Eric from MO July 22nd, 2009 5:07 pm
Yes Dude, but doesnt somebody have to be on base to produce that run?
Ever hear of a solo home run Dude?
Steve from OH
July 22nd, 2009
5:17 pm
Beekay–didn’t see it, but thanks for pointing it out. It’s nice that we signed all of our picks, at least. Man, if Minor doesn’t sign, just think of the draft we’ll have next year…it’ll be like Christmas…
Frankie Knuckles
July 22nd, 2009
5:17 pm
PWH – thanks for the info.
Steve from OH
July 22nd, 2009
5:18 pm
Also, I have absolutely no idea why Ryan Wooley won’t sign…