Why not make KJ the everyday right fielder, Prado the everyday second baseman, and platoon Schafer and Frenchy in center field? Perhaps, the competitors that they are, Scafer and Frenchy would respond well to the competition and start “playing up” to each other.
Payne: “Five years ago, at 32, Chipper played in 137 games. I’m not sure if anyone thought he was an injury waiting to happen. But I think most baseball people realize that there are injury risks with players in their late 30s.”
Not Easily Dazzled, so I suppose you know how much more streaky Kelly Johnson is than other players?
Let’s look at last year. Kelly Johnson had two months where his OPS was better than his total OPS. Guess how many such months Brian McCann had? If you guessed two, you are correct!
Darn facts get in the way of what my eyes tell me about a player!
Shaun, you are the one who keeps missing the point.
Your argument that minor league numbers are a reliable gauge of what future MLB performance will be, (at least that’s what I understood you to say) is flawed to say the least. Many times the numbers are a reliable gauge, many times, not.
Based on minor league numbers those who subscribe to your school of thought would not have predicted Brian McCann as a 3 time all-star! You also keep going back to Salty as your example. The last example I used was Babe Ruth. I will repeat this again. I’m not talking about Salty. I’m talking about a hypthetical Joe Blow.
Forget Salty, Shaun. My point is that a team, (or evidently an individual,) can become fixated on the concept that a given player will lose his value if he switches positions. While this is true sometimes, it’s not ALWAYS true as you seem to suggest.
I repeat Shaun. Babe Ruth! Not Salty! Babe Ruth! Not Salty! What if Babe Ruth had been locked into a career as a pitcher because the team he played for saw his value as being diminished if he were to be moved to the outfield?
T-Paul, there is no denying that having Arod & Tex together in the lineup is good for the Yankees, no matter where they are playing the games. Lineup depth (and quality), is essential for any star, in order for them to be productive and not be pitched around.
But those home/road splits are as ugly (in not more so), than guys like Bichette and Elis Burks used to put up at Coors and on the road. Larry Walker and even the Big Cat could always hit, no matter where they played.
I too have heard/read that as soon as the old Yankee Stadium is turned into a parking lot, the wind and air travel in that stadium could change. But they said the same thing about the new park in Cinncinati as well, before the old one was tore down. As far as that goes, how do they know the changes won’t make the ball fly out even more?
Until it’s tore down, NOBODY really knows what the affect is going to be.
Not Easily Dazzled, so I suppose you know how much more streaky Kelly Johnson is than other players?
Let’s look at last year. Kelly Johnson had two months where his OPS was better than his total OPS. Guess how many such months Brian McCann had? If you guessed two, you are correct!
Darn facts get in the way of what my eyes tell me about a player!
I keep thinking of a way to get BMac and Ross in the same lineup (without it being interleague play at an AL park).
Can either play another position besides catcher? Ross seems more mobile to me.
Don’t know how I could have not remembered Brian… he and Frenchy are best of friends and with all of the focus on Francoeur lately one would think I would have thought of McCann in the same thought process. I just fel stupid in front of all these hard core bloggers now. My bad- and I agree with those who think he’s the best catcher in NL- and probably in all of MLB.
a643dp – Correct about Diory playing different positions. Was just wondering why we would spend a whole blog discussing ways to get more offense then play someone like Diory over Dias. He might have the ability to play numerous positions but problem is he hits the same in all of them.
Give Me A Break, right. It’s not always true that a player will lose value if he changes positions. I never said that it was always true. A player who hits like Babe Ruth and can play adequate defense at any position is perfectly fine anywhere on the field.
But this whole discussion started because of the idea of Salty at first for the Braves. The fact is if you are a decent hitter for a catcher or for a SS or for a 2B, you probably aren’t that great a hitter for a firstbaseman. This is when it is true that a player loses value if he switches positions. Take a player like Kelly Johnson. He would lose value if the Braves made him a firstbaseman. Not saying he wouldn’t be adequate there or that one day that won’t be the Braves’ best option. But the fact is he’s not as valuable offensively if he’s a firstbaseman as he is as a secondbaseman. Now if someone like Albert Pujols could play adequate defense anywhere, no, he would not lose value no matter where he played.
Regarding minor league numbers, most of the time they are reliable, especially if you look at the right numbers and take into account the right information.
For example, look at McCann versus Francoeur. On the surface Francoeur looked like the better player. But dig a little deeper and you see that Francoeur’s K/BB ratio was extremely troubling (264/89). That indicates that major league pitchers could probably carve him up and that’s what’s happening.
McCann’s K/BB was 93/178. McCann’s power numbers weren’t far off from Francoeur’s. Not saying anyone should have predicted McCann would become a superstar but the numbers were reliable for telling us a great deal; not everything but they certainly could have told us a lot.
Shaun, now your 4:42 post proves to the ney-sayers that think it might not be you, that it is in fact you. Not Easily Dazzled was making a point about streakiness, and all you do is look for the numbers that suit your argument.
You say that McCann, like KJ only had 2 months of OPS “above” what his overall OPS was. So true. Can’t argue there.
But what you fail to point out (or even acknowledge), is that McCann didn’t have ANY months where his OPS was any lower than .120 points below his overall OPS of .896.
KJ on the other hand? He had a month of .661 and another month of .577 (some .218 points below his overall OPS of .795).
So, part of being “streaky” means that you have highs (the two months for each of them ABOVE their overal OPS), and you have some “lows”.
KJ’s Lows are incredibly low. Thus the almost .100 point difference in their overall OPS numbers when compared to each other, even though their two “high” months were damn near identical in production.
Same old Shaun people. To suggest that McCann is as streaky as KJ because both only had 2 months above their overall OPS is about as assinine as it gets. LOL!
It’s common math Shaun. If somebody had more months above their overall OPS, their overal OPS would be higher.
Kentavo – Sorry about that I didn’t see KJ in the lineup. You’re right about shaky defensively with Dias in center and KJ playing the outfield for the first time in year and Bmac playing left with only WBC experience.
Redstick19Don’t know how I could have not remembered Brian…
Neither do I! But like I said, you’re forgiven–we’ll let it slide this one time.
He’s totally the best in the NL. Apparently there’s a team in Minnesota and they have a catcher who tags people out at homeplate or something to that effect…
n8, Bobby’s Cox gave me the rule on “streaky”, i.e., slumps are just slumps if the hitter drops no more than 20 points off his average before starting to regain his stroke. More than that is streaky. I make the assumption that the rule is in effect sometime after a certain number of ABs to begin the season, since early-season fluctuations are common.
So, there you go. Now we can follow the season and see what happens.
And yet we all know that what I said is true. There’s a small window of time when Kelly Johnson “is hot” and puts up great numbers and the rest of the time he’s awful. Yet those good times are good enough so that his overall numbers don’t really tell you the full story. And that’s the real story. Whether you are an old stat guy or you’re a fantasy geek.
That’s why these insipid arguments about the utility of BA or RBI’s vs. OPS or some fantasy baseball stat are amusing to me. Numbers can never tell you the complete story.That’s why I don’t believe certain people who claimed to have played actually played. You always need eyes on the field as part of any proper evaluation and no one mentions that fact. Not the BA/RBI guys (the few willing to openly dissent) nor the fantasy baseball geeks.
btw..l love how you guys have your facelickers and personal trolls who tell you how great you are..that’s very sweet.
wish we would try this for a series and see what happens.
I hope not because defense is very important and it will show. Good pitching and decent defense has you over .500, good pitching and bad defense will not get you there plus do you really improve the offense that much. You still have Frenchy in teh lineup and the rest of the crew so it doesnt really change much.
Really? You think that having Francoeur in the lineup playing center field would be better than Schafer? Really?! You’re just pulling our legs, right? RIGHT?!
I can think of a few catches off the top of my head that Schafer made that would most likely be doubles with Frenchy in CF. That could easily have turned into a few losses.
Here’s aquestion, Why didn’t they bat Hernandez ninth, and Scaefer eighth? That would at least given Scaefer a new look in the rear view instead of a pitcher. With Escobar out ATL was only playing with a half a lineup. AT least 4 outs in Francouer, Hernandez, Schaefer, and the pitcher.
Haha…this reminds me of that Orbit commercial where two women are yelling at each other and one calls the other a “Cootie Queen” and the other calls her a “Lint Licker”. haha…oh, me!
Before making any judgements- I’m NOT a Bobby Cox hater. Think he’s a great baseball mind and clearly loves the game. Having said that, do you think maybe he’s stayed too long in one place? It seems to me the Braves teams of the last few years have lacked that “fire.” You observe and analyze this Braves team much more closely than any of us- Do you feel that possibly be traced to Bobby’s laid back approach to change? Or do you really feel it’s something else? I look at this team- and I think they could win more with this pitching staff and this lineup.
I’m not going to move forward with the parentheses, but I am glad that many have identified themselves as KJ fans. Now for the non-KJ fans to show themselves……
I wonder who those could be…cough, Bobby’s, Doc Holiday, cough, cough……
Shaun, sure. All players are streaky. I’m going to assume that in the history of MLB, that there has not been too many guys that have had the same OPS month after month, after month.
I don’t argue that point. But McCann is more consistent than KJ. The funny thing is, I didn’t NEED to look it up to realize that. I follow the games and my comprehension of what’s going on from game to game tells me that.
But those “Darn facts” helped me back up what my brain told me about KJ and Mac.
Make no mistake about it. KJ is more “streaky” (whatever YOUR definition of streaky is), than Mac is, or at leas WAS in 2008.
Redstick19
To be fair, the Braves over the past 15 years have lacked fire, but it seems much easier to win with a talented veteran team lacking fire than it is with a young team.
From what I’ve seen looking at KJ since he came back as a “regular” he is extremely streaky. He gets extremely hot and he gets cold. But he spends the majority of his streaks on the “negative” side, meaning he has longer “slumps” or cold streaks than he does “hot streaks”. This is even more pronounced when he bats leadoff.
Look, I don’t hate or dislike KJ at all….my point for bringing his name into the trade conversation is simply due to him being the best possible trade chip we have in a position of strength….anywhere else, we either have ZERO players, or we have 1 like at SS w/ Escobar that we can not afford to get rid of…If we keep him then so be it, but if we do trade him, the reason is because of what myself and N8 have mentioned….
Personally, I’d rather see him everyday in RF and Prado at 2b, BUT Francoeur has ZERO or BELOW value as a trade piece…so it is what it is…
Why do you think the Sox are in on him? They’ve had a knack the last few years for buying low and selling high and getting great value simply because they have the wiggle room and the finances to do so….
Unfortunately the Braves failed on that end because they have tried it w/ Anderson and had to hope for Francoeur to bounce back and Schafer to have a productive rookie campaign, thus far making the experiment a resounding 0 for 3.
If anyone is delusional enough to believe this team w/ the current roster in place will win ANYTHING, then go ahead…I’ll just say I’m not buying it at all.
Too many streaky hitters + not enough back end pitching = .500 baseball
To be fair, the Braves over the past 15 years have lacked fire.
Man, if lacking fire leads to that many division titles that is impressive. There are 25+ other teams that wish they won that much in the last 15 years. Granted winning makes it easier and teams that wait for the big inning appear to not have the same fire then those that have a speedster at the top.
Oh- and stop piling on KJ… all you who say he can’t play defense should check out the numbers, which are getting better, not worse. Let’s see all of you get out there and play 2nd and hit leadoff any better. His problems are probably confidence related after reading all of your blog entries. He’s changed positions twice in the organization, then has no consistent home in the lineup… he’s a team player, and all we do is bash him. Shame.
jtb, stats are for losers. He can’t play 2nd at a major league level. We must upgrade the middle defense to contend. We will never contend with him there. Someone mentioned putting him in right. He can’t make the throws from right. Might work in left.
Package Johnson & Shaefer, along with a minor league pitching prospect, for a solid 4 hitter – Holliday would be perfect. I don’t see Shaefer ever developing into a keeper for the franchise – he’s just not a Brave. Johnson is a great guy, but will never be a 2nd basemen. He does have value as an outfielder, and has a good bat. He should be attractive to several teams. Diaz is a better hitter and can play LF for a long time. Get rid of Pendleton and get a real batting coach to turn Frenchy around. A great replacment would be the guy who has the job for the Texas Rangers. He apparently has Andruw on track, which is something Pendleton was not capable of doing. If can fix Andruw’s swing, and change his approach to hitting, fixing Frenchy will be a piece of cake. But Geez Braves, please don’t pull another Texeira trade where ou give up some really bright talent for a player who will not be on board more than 1 1/2 years! We don’t need to lose any more Salty’s, Elvis’s, or Furcals! Let’s be smart this time Mr. Wren.
Steve from OH, back to the “what we could get from Boston’s minor league system for Francoeur?” convo, their Low-A Greenville team has some interesting hitters. Although, I’m not sure if the Braves want something more major league ready for Jeff through trade. All depends on what else they had lined up I suppose.
According to mlbtraderumors.com, the Braves haven’t gotten “fully engaged” in their search for an outfielder. Could that mean they don’t plan on getting one? Seems like it.
” I make the assumption that the rule is in effect sometime after a certain number of ABs to begin the season, since early-season fluctuations are common.”scoots
I understand the thought behind putting an actual “number” on it, as far as a BA drop goes, to help define it. But your statement above IS true. Early in the year the difference of 5 hits in a week, might make MORE than a 20 point drop in average. While in September, it might take somebody going 0-for the month to drop 20 points in average.
Steve from OH, back to the “What could we get for Francoeur from Boston’s farm system?” convo, they have some interesting hitters at the Low-A level(Greenville). Not sure if the Braves would want something more major league ready though. But interesting bats at the lower levels for Boston.
I agree w/ you there, but simply put, thats Bobby’s fault there…the guy is NOT a leadoff hitter! As soon as that is fully realized, he may actually reach his potential.
That being said, everyone can take a vote here:
Which two players would you remove from the OF rotation to be replaced by (___________)?
The main reason why KJ gets so much **** here is because he seems to be the personification of his team’s Jekyll and Hyde behavior.
When he’s hot, fans get fooled into thinking he’s going to be a great player. When he’s ice cold, fans get fooled into thinking he’ll never be any good again. On the whole, the stats will bear out that Kelly Johnson is a plus offensive player at his position. Nevertheless, he is frustrating as all hell to many fans.
But, how is it even a Kelly Johnson/Prado/Infante argument anymore? Infante’s hurt; Prado has recently played the OF, and KJ has in the past.
Francoeur to AAA, yesterday, Braveheart’s defensive metrics be damned.
I watched Francoeur closely in BP, last night. The bat drags…in BP…DRAGS, is slow, can’t catch up, the barrel of the bat consistently approaches the ball from below. You cannot succeed when your barrel drags like that. Maybe he figures it out in the minors, maybe not, but why sell low?
Diaz’ (or KJ, or Prado) arm is average at best, but I don’t think their range is significantly worse (WW’d disagree); doesn’t matter…play anybody but JF, please.
yall are idiots think about schafer hitting before the pithcer he aint going to get crap to hit unless we are playing the cards cause their manager likes to start an inning with the pitcher hitting. any ways his defense is really good and it could be argued he saves runs this way. I think he needs to be moved to lead off let him hit their, let him get pitches to hit and steal some friggin bases. isnt that what he worked on all winter… let him lead off
noah
I wasn’t trying to talk down on the Braves for lacking fire, just trying to point out that it’s not the Braves way to wear their hearts on their sleeves. While great during their tenures with the Braves; Glavine, Maddux, Lopez, McGriff, Sheffield, Chipper, Andruw, Wiess, etc. stayed very even keel through the ups and downs of the long season.
Would really like to see the Braves get Ankiel if he is available. You could plug him into CF and send Schafer to AAA. I really dont think he would cost much. I’ve also noticed that Blanco usually starts out on fire. Maybe call him up and if he has a decent month he could be traded.
any ways his defense is really good and it could be argued he saves runs this way.
Agree completely. Schaefer has saved runs and defense is important. And it isnt like he hasn’t got a hit all year. We almost spent 10’s of millions on Furcal and he is only hitting .220
noah
I agree completely about Schafer. While I want him to do well for the Braves, he just simply isn’t a Brave to me. I’m hoping that maybe Gorkys will be more Brave-like and will replace him sometime in the next few years.
haven’t gotten fully engaged – would mean they havent had serious talks or are watching the market unfold. How you interpreted this to mean “don’t plan on getting one. Seems like it.” beats me. Simple english isnt it.
Haha…this reminds me of that Orbit commercial where two women are yelling at each other and one calls the other a “Cootie Queen” and the other calls her a “Lint Licker”. haha…oh, me!
Love that commercial!
Not surprised my comment would strike a familiar ring to you. ::rolls eyes::
Yeah, a lot of those guys at Greenville are interesting, Efrim. But how many, and what quality? Can you get Pimentel? Federowicz? Kowenen? Rizzo? I don’t know…and I don’t know if it makes sense for us. Frenchy’s value is so indeterminate right now that I think it can go anywhere from a Reddick to a Luis Sumoza…
Bakerman??? is that you Cox, sounds like it we should leave Schafer in Center break the record for the worst rookie SO record ever. Nothing is broke #6 lets leave it the way it is.
They wasted another good start from Halladay. He left after 7 innings leading 8-3. Bullpen meltdown yielded 9 runs and lost the game. So its not just us who have these issues I guess.
2,175 comments Add your comment
Il Cattivo
May 27th, 2009
4:35 pm
Woohoo for ManU losing today. As an Arsenal fan, I can never digest ManU winning. (Yes I suffer from frequent heartburn, but not today!!!).
fleming
May 27th, 2009
4:36 pm
DOB – Is there anyway that Word Press can rate limit bloggers to one post per inning in game.
a643dp
May 27th, 2009
4:36 pm
Was Michael Barret the ump. LOL
ChaddyDaddy
May 27th, 2009
4:37 pm
Why not make KJ the everyday right fielder, Prado the everyday second baseman, and platoon Schafer and Frenchy in center field? Perhaps, the competitors that they are, Scafer and Frenchy would respond well to the competition and start “playing up” to each other.
fleming
May 27th, 2009
4:38 pm
ChaddyDaddy – And who plays 3rd when Chipper is out?
TennesseePaul
May 27th, 2009
4:39 pm
Payne: “Five years ago, at 32, Chipper played in 137 games. I’m not sure if anyone thought he was an injury waiting to happen. But I think most baseball people realize that there are injury risks with players in their late 30s.”
So are you saying 32 is “late 30’s”??
Shaun
May 27th, 2009
4:40 pm
Not Easily Dazzled, so I suppose you know how much more streaky Kelly Johnson is than other players?
Let’s look at last year. Kelly Johnson had two months where his OPS was better than his total OPS. Guess how many such months Brian McCann had? If you guessed two, you are correct!
Darn facts get in the way of what my eyes tell me about a player!
CB
May 27th, 2009
4:40 pm
Roman Gal thanks- good article.
bakerman
May 27th, 2009
4:41 pm
There is a reason Kelly makes less than others with similar offensive stats. HE CAN’T PLAY DEFENSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ncscoots
May 27th, 2009
4:41 pm
So are you saying 32 is “late 30’s”??
park-adjusted age…
Give Me A Break
May 27th, 2009
4:41 pm
Shaun, you are the one who keeps missing the point.
Your argument that minor league numbers are a reliable gauge of what future MLB performance will be, (at least that’s what I understood you to say) is flawed to say the least. Many times the numbers are a reliable gauge, many times, not.
Based on minor league numbers those who subscribe to your school of thought would not have predicted Brian McCann as a 3 time all-star! You also keep going back to Salty as your example. The last example I used was Babe Ruth. I will repeat this again. I’m not talking about Salty. I’m talking about a hypthetical Joe Blow.
Forget Salty, Shaun. My point is that a team, (or evidently an individual,) can become fixated on the concept that a given player will lose his value if he switches positions. While this is true sometimes, it’s not ALWAYS true as you seem to suggest.
I repeat Shaun. Babe Ruth! Not Salty! Babe Ruth! Not Salty! What if Babe Ruth had been locked into a career as a pitcher because the team he played for saw his value as being diminished if he were to be moved to the outfield?
Shaun
May 27th, 2009
4:41 pm
TennesseePaul, No. I shouldn’t have put those two sentences together. I shouldn’t even brought up what Chipper did at 32, probably.
McFann Ô
May 27th, 2009
4:42 pm
Redstick19–
Good. You’re forgiven. But watch out in the future, or you’ll have me to answer to!
I totally overlooked McCann.
So do lots of people. I think Clint Hurdle is the president of that group…
N8
May 27th, 2009
4:42 pm
T-Paul, there is no denying that having Arod & Tex together in the lineup is good for the Yankees, no matter where they are playing the games. Lineup depth (and quality), is essential for any star, in order for them to be productive and not be pitched around.
But those home/road splits are as ugly (in not more so), than guys like Bichette and Elis Burks used to put up at Coors and on the road. Larry Walker and even the Big Cat could always hit, no matter where they played.
I too have heard/read that as soon as the old Yankee Stadium is turned into a parking lot, the wind and air travel in that stadium could change. But they said the same thing about the new park in Cinncinati as well, before the old one was tore down. As far as that goes, how do they know the changes won’t make the ball fly out even more?
Until it’s tore down, NOBODY really knows what the affect is going to be.
MFin04
May 27th, 2009
4:42 pm
GA/Diaz/BJ in LF
Schafer in CF (no other option)
KJ in RF
Prado at 2B
It gives us one more hitter in the lineup. It’s worth a shot. If Chipper is hurt, than you go back to the usual with Prado at 3rd.
Shaun
May 27th, 2009
4:42 pm
Not Easily Dazzled, so I suppose you know how much more streaky Kelly Johnson is than other players?
Let’s look at last year. Kelly Johnson had two months where his OPS was better than his total OPS. Guess how many such months Brian McCann had? If you guessed two, you are correct!
Darn facts get in the way of what my eyes tell me about a player!
a643dp
May 27th, 2009
4:42 pm
D. Hernandez 117 games at 2nd and 74 games at 3rd.
MFin04
May 27th, 2009
4:44 pm
Or….
KJ in LF
Schafer in CF (no other option)
JF in RF
Prado at 2B
fleming
May 27th, 2009
4:46 pm
a643dp – D. Hernandez 117 games at 2nd and 74 games at 3rd.
Is that supposed to mean you would rather have Diory at 3rd, Prado at 2nd and KJ in left than Prado at 3rd, KJ at 2nd and Dias/Anderson in left.
jtb
May 27th, 2009
4:47 pm
bakerman
Check out KJ’s defensive numbers this year. Turns out he can play defense.
a643dp
May 27th, 2009
4:49 pm
No just letting people know that Hernandez is just like Prado as far as the ability to play all in the infield except 1st.
Kentavo
May 27th, 2009
4:50 pm
I keep thinking of a way to get BMac and Ross in the same lineup (without it being interleague play at an AL park).
Can either play another position besides catcher? Ross seems more mobile to me.
Roman Gal
May 27th, 2009
4:51 pm
Is there anyway that Word Press can rate limit bloggers to one post per inning in game. flemming
Do we get extra posts for good behavior?
Redstick19
May 27th, 2009
4:51 pm
McFann-
Don’t know how I could have not remembered Brian… he and Frenchy are best of friends and with all of the focus on Francoeur lately one would think I would have thought of McCann in the same thought process. I just fel stupid in front of all these hard core bloggers now. My bad- and I agree with those who think he’s the best catcher in NL- and probably in all of MLB.
Efrim
May 27th, 2009
4:52 pm
Can we all just have a vote on who likes Kelly Johnson and who doesn’t? Make things so much easier.
Kentavo
May 27th, 2009
4:53 pm
If you’re going to put the team’s best hitters in the starting 8, you’d have to go with something like:
Yuni (SS)
Kotch (1B)
Chip (3B)
BMac (LF)
Ross (C)
Prado (2B)
Diaz (CF)
KJ (RF)
That’d be pretty shaky defensively but a better offensive threat.
At least you wouldn’t have a black hole at the bottom of the lineup.
fleming
May 27th, 2009
4:53 pm
a643dp – Correct about Diory playing different positions. Was just wondering why we would spend a whole blog discussing ways to get more offense then play someone like Diory over Dias. He might have the ability to play numerous positions but problem is he hits the same in all of them.
fleming
May 27th, 2009
4:55 pm
Kentavo – One more time. Prado is not a better hitter than KJ.
TennesseePaul
May 27th, 2009
4:55 pm
“park-adjusted age…”
lol
Shaun
May 27th, 2009
4:56 pm
Give Me A Break, right. It’s not always true that a player will lose value if he changes positions. I never said that it was always true. A player who hits like Babe Ruth and can play adequate defense at any position is perfectly fine anywhere on the field.
But this whole discussion started because of the idea of Salty at first for the Braves. The fact is if you are a decent hitter for a catcher or for a SS or for a 2B, you probably aren’t that great a hitter for a firstbaseman. This is when it is true that a player loses value if he switches positions. Take a player like Kelly Johnson. He would lose value if the Braves made him a firstbaseman. Not saying he wouldn’t be adequate there or that one day that won’t be the Braves’ best option. But the fact is he’s not as valuable offensively if he’s a firstbaseman as he is as a secondbaseman. Now if someone like Albert Pujols could play adequate defense anywhere, no, he would not lose value no matter where he played.
Regarding minor league numbers, most of the time they are reliable, especially if you look at the right numbers and take into account the right information.
For example, look at McCann versus Francoeur. On the surface Francoeur looked like the better player. But dig a little deeper and you see that Francoeur’s K/BB ratio was extremely troubling (264/89). That indicates that major league pitchers could probably carve him up and that’s what’s happening.
McCann’s K/BB was 93/178. McCann’s power numbers weren’t far off from Francoeur’s. Not saying anyone should have predicted McCann would become a superstar but the numbers were reliable for telling us a great deal; not everything but they certainly could have told us a lot.
N8
May 27th, 2009
4:56 pm
Shaun, now your 4:42 post proves to the ney-sayers that think it might not be you, that it is in fact you. Not Easily Dazzled was making a point about streakiness, and all you do is look for the numbers that suit your argument.
You say that McCann, like KJ only had 2 months of OPS “above” what his overall OPS was. So true. Can’t argue there.
But what you fail to point out (or even acknowledge), is that McCann didn’t have ANY months where his OPS was any lower than .120 points below his overall OPS of .896.
KJ on the other hand? He had a month of .661 and another month of .577 (some .218 points below his overall OPS of .795).
So, part of being “streaky” means that you have highs (the two months for each of them ABOVE their overal OPS), and you have some “lows”.
KJ’s Lows are incredibly low. Thus the almost .100 point difference in their overall OPS numbers when compared to each other, even though their two “high” months were damn near identical in production.
Same old Shaun people. To suggest that McCann is as streaky as KJ because both only had 2 months above their overall OPS is about as assinine as it gets. LOL!
It’s common math Shaun. If somebody had more months above their overall OPS, their overal OPS would be higher.
Welcome back.
Roman Gal (KJ Fan)
May 27th, 2009
4:56 pm
Efrim, does this make it easier?
a643dp
May 27th, 2009
4:56 pm
No I was answering the question about what if Chipper got hurt? We wouldnt have to bring KJ back in from OF to play second thats all.
fleming
May 27th, 2009
4:58 pm
Kentavo – Sorry about that I didn’t see KJ in the lineup. You’re right about shaky defensively with Dias in center and KJ playing the outfield for the first time in year and Bmac playing left with only WBC experience.
fleming
May 27th, 2009
4:59 pm
Roman Gal (KJ Fan) – Guess I have to agree about KJ fan.
Shaun
May 27th, 2009
5:00 pm
N8, the point was that all players are streaky.
McFann Ô
May 27th, 2009
5:00 pm
Redstick19 Don’t know how I could have not remembered Brian…
Neither do I!
But like I said, you’re forgiven–we’ll let it slide this one time.
He’s totally the best in the NL. Apparently there’s a team in Minnesota and they have a catcher who tags people out at homeplate or something to that effect…
a643dp
May 27th, 2009
5:00 pm
I wish we would try this for a series and see what happens.
1.Escobar SS
2.Kotchman 1st
3.C.Jones 3rd
4.B.McCann C
5.Diaz/GA LF
6.Prado 2nd
7.KJ RF
8.Frenchy CF
9.———–
ncscoots
May 27th, 2009
5:01 pm
n8, Bobby’s Cox gave me the rule on “streaky”, i.e., slumps are just slumps if the hitter drops no more than 20 points off his average before starting to regain his stroke. More than that is streaky. I make the assumption that the rule is in effect sometime after a certain number of ABs to begin the season, since early-season fluctuations are common.
So, there you go. Now we can follow the season and see what happens.
Efrim(KJ Fan)
May 27th, 2009
5:01 pm
Roman Gal, yes, it does.
fleming(KJ fan)
May 27th, 2009
5:03 pm
Make that at least three
Not Easily Dazzled
May 27th, 2009
5:03 pm
And yet we all know that what I said is true. There’s a small window of time when Kelly Johnson “is hot” and puts up great numbers and the rest of the time he’s awful. Yet those good times are good enough so that his overall numbers don’t really tell you the full story. And that’s the real story. Whether you are an old stat guy or you’re a fantasy geek.
That’s why these insipid arguments about the utility of BA or RBI’s vs. OPS or some fantasy baseball stat are amusing to me. Numbers can never tell you the complete story.That’s why I don’t believe certain people who claimed to have played actually played. You always need eyes on the field as part of any proper evaluation and no one mentions that fact. Not the BA/RBI guys (the few willing to openly dissent) nor the fantasy baseball geeks.
btw..l love how you guys have your facelickers and personal trolls who tell you how great you are..that’s very sweet.
noah
May 27th, 2009
5:03 pm
wish we would try this for a series and see what happens.
I hope not because defense is very important and it will show. Good pitching and decent defense has you over .500, good pitching and bad defense will not get you there plus do you really improve the offense that much. You still have Frenchy in teh lineup and the rest of the crew so it doesnt really change much.
Roman Gal (KJ Fan)
May 27th, 2009
5:05 pm
a643dp
Really? You think that having Francoeur in the lineup playing center field would be better than Schafer? Really?! You’re just pulling our legs, right? RIGHT?!
winterville (KJ fan)
May 27th, 2009
5:05 pm
+1 makes 4.
Thrillhouse44(not a fan of parenthesis, but a KJ Fan)
May 27th, 2009
5:05 pm
Here.
flange1 (KJ fan #4)
May 27th, 2009
5:05 pm
Count me in as KJ fan #4!
Steve from OH
May 27th, 2009
5:05 pm
I’m a KJ fan, too, but I refuse to put anything in parentheses after my name, given the precedent of bloggers that have done it before me!
KJ Fan!
cabravesfan (KJ Fan)
May 27th, 2009
5:07 pm
Hey, Can I get in on this?
noah
May 27th, 2009
5:07 pm
I can think of a few catches off the top of my head that Schafer made that would most likely be doubles with Frenchy in CF. That could easily have turned into a few losses.
Thrillhouse44
May 27th, 2009
5:08 pm
Steve from OH – glad we have similar thoughts on parentheses. We’ll start a club one day.
jason
May 27th, 2009
5:09 pm
Here’s aquestion, Why didn’t they bat Hernandez ninth, and Scaefer eighth? That would at least given Scaefer a new look in the rear view instead of a pitcher. With Escobar out ATL was only playing with a half a lineup. AT least 4 outs in Francouer, Hernandez, Schaefer, and the pitcher.
winterville (KJ fan)
May 27th, 2009
5:09 pm
It’s OK everyone!! Profess your fandom of KJ!! You don’t have to be afraid anymore!!!
Il Cattivo(KJ Fan)
May 27th, 2009
5:09 pm
I feel like I am wearing a KJ Lapel pin or a wristband.
Roman Gal (KJ Fan)
May 27th, 2009
5:09 pm
l love how you guys have your facelickers and…
Haha…this reminds me of that Orbit commercial where two women are yelling at each other and one calls the other a “Cootie Queen” and the other calls her a “Lint Licker”. haha…oh, me!
Commercial
Redstick19
May 27th, 2009
5:10 pm
Hey DOB-
Before making any judgements- I’m NOT a Bobby Cox hater. Think he’s a great baseball mind and clearly loves the game. Having said that, do you think maybe he’s stayed too long in one place? It seems to me the Braves teams of the last few years have lacked that “fire.” You observe and analyze this Braves team much more closely than any of us- Do you feel that possibly be traced to Bobby’s laid back approach to change? Or do you really feel it’s something else? I look at this team- and I think they could win more with this pitching staff and this lineup.
cabravesfan
May 27th, 2009
5:11 pm
Enter your comments here
Efrim
May 27th, 2009
5:11 pm
I’m not going to move forward with the parentheses, but I am glad that many have identified themselves as KJ fans. Now for the non-KJ fans to show themselves……
I wonder who those could be…cough, Bobby’s, Doc Holiday, cough, cough……
Steve from OH
May 27th, 2009
5:11 pm
Why wait, Thrillhouse?
cabravesfan
May 27th, 2009
5:11 pm
my bad…not sure how that happened
N8
May 27th, 2009
5:12 pm
Shaun, sure. All players are streaky. I’m going to assume that in the history of MLB, that there has not been too many guys that have had the same OPS month after month, after month.
I don’t argue that point. But McCann is more consistent than KJ. The funny thing is, I didn’t NEED to look it up to realize that. I follow the games and my comprehension of what’s going on from game to game tells me that.
But those “Darn facts” helped me back up what my brain told me about KJ and Mac.
Make no mistake about it. KJ is more “streaky” (whatever YOUR definition of streaky is), than Mac is, or at leas WAS in 2008.
jtb
May 27th, 2009
5:12 pm
Redstick19
To be fair, the Braves over the past 15 years have lacked fire, but it seems much easier to win with a talented veteran team lacking fire than it is with a young team.
TennesseePaul
May 27th, 2009
5:14 pm
From what I’ve seen looking at KJ since he came back as a “regular” he is extremely streaky. He gets extremely hot and he gets cold. But he spends the majority of his streaks on the “negative” side, meaning he has longer “slumps” or cold streaks than he does “hot streaks”. This is even more pronounced when he bats leadoff.
P-Town Brave
May 27th, 2009
5:15 pm
N8-
Thank you for bringing some sanity back here…
Look, I don’t hate or dislike KJ at all….my point for bringing his name into the trade conversation is simply due to him being the best possible trade chip we have in a position of strength….anywhere else, we either have ZERO players, or we have 1 like at SS w/ Escobar that we can not afford to get rid of…If we keep him then so be it, but if we do trade him, the reason is because of what myself and N8 have mentioned….
Personally, I’d rather see him everyday in RF and Prado at 2b, BUT Francoeur has ZERO or BELOW value as a trade piece…so it is what it is…
Why do you think the Sox are in on him? They’ve had a knack the last few years for buying low and selling high and getting great value simply because they have the wiggle room and the finances to do so….
Unfortunately the Braves failed on that end because they have tried it w/ Anderson and had to hope for Francoeur to bounce back and Schafer to have a productive rookie campaign, thus far making the experiment a resounding 0 for 3.
If anyone is delusional enough to believe this team w/ the current roster in place will win ANYTHING, then go ahead…I’ll just say I’m not buying it at all.
Too many streaky hitters + not enough back end pitching = .500 baseball
noah
May 27th, 2009
5:15 pm
To be fair, the Braves over the past 15 years have lacked fire.
Man, if lacking fire leads to that many division titles that is impressive. There are 25+ other teams that wish they won that much in the last 15 years. Granted winning makes it easier and teams that wait for the big inning appear to not have the same fire then those that have a speedster at the top.
Chop Chop
May 27th, 2009
5:15 pm
I’m not a KJ fan.
Roman Gal
May 27th, 2009
5:15 pm
Steve from OH and Thrillhouse
So, you’re new names should be:
Steve from OH (hates parenthetical names)
and
Thrillhouse44 (wants you to join the anti-parenthesis name club)
?
Steve from OH
May 27th, 2009
5:16 pm
Good one, RG!
Redstick19
May 27th, 2009
5:18 pm
Oh- and stop piling on KJ… all you who say he can’t play defense should check out the numbers, which are getting better, not worse. Let’s see all of you get out there and play 2nd and hit leadoff any better. His problems are probably confidence related after reading all of your blog entries. He’s changed positions twice in the organization, then has no consistent home in the lineup… he’s a team player, and all we do is bash him. Shame.
bakerman
May 27th, 2009
5:18 pm
jtb, stats are for losers. He can’t play 2nd at a major league level. We must upgrade the middle defense to contend. We will never contend with him there. Someone mentioned putting him in right. He can’t make the throws from right. Might work in left.
Michael J
May 27th, 2009
5:18 pm
Package Johnson & Shaefer, along with a minor league pitching prospect, for a solid 4 hitter – Holliday would be perfect. I don’t see Shaefer ever developing into a keeper for the franchise – he’s just not a Brave. Johnson is a great guy, but will never be a 2nd basemen. He does have value as an outfielder, and has a good bat. He should be attractive to several teams. Diaz is a better hitter and can play LF for a long time. Get rid of Pendleton and get a real batting coach to turn Frenchy around. A great replacment would be the guy who has the job for the Texas Rangers. He apparently has Andruw on track, which is something Pendleton was not capable of doing. If can fix Andruw’s swing, and change his approach to hitting, fixing Frenchy will be a piece of cake. But Geez Braves, please don’t pull another Texeira trade where ou give up some really bright talent for a player who will not be on board more than 1 1/2 years! We don’t need to lose any more Salty’s, Elvis’s, or Furcals! Let’s be smart this time Mr. Wren.
Efrim
May 27th, 2009
5:19 pm
Steve from OH, back to the “what we could get from Boston’s minor league system for Francoeur?” convo, their Low-A Greenville team has some interesting hitters. Although, I’m not sure if the Braves want something more major league ready for Jeff through trade. All depends on what else they had lined up I suppose.
choppertochipper
May 27th, 2009
5:19 pm
According to mlbtraderumors.com, the Braves haven’t gotten “fully engaged” in their search for an outfielder. Could that mean they don’t plan on getting one? Seems like it.
a643dp
May 27th, 2009
5:19 pm
DOB,
Check out these numbers. The Braves 1-4 starting pitchers have these combined hitting stats for the year.
70 ABs
11 Hits
20 Ks
.157 BA
In Schafers last 70 ABs
11 Hits
25 SO
.157 BA
SHOCKING
N8
May 27th, 2009
5:20 pm
” I make the assumption that the rule is in effect sometime after a certain number of ABs to begin the season, since early-season fluctuations are common.” scoots
I understand the thought behind putting an actual “number” on it, as far as a BA drop goes, to help define it. But your statement above IS true. Early in the year the difference of 5 hits in a week, might make MORE than a 20 point drop in average. While in September, it might take somebody going 0-for the month to drop 20 points in average.
Efrim
May 27th, 2009
5:21 pm
Steve from OH, back to the “What could we get for Francoeur from Boston’s farm system?” convo, they have some interesting hitters at the Low-A level(Greenville). Not sure if the Braves would want something more major league ready though. But interesting bats at the lower levels for Boston.
P-Town Brave
May 27th, 2009
5:21 pm
redstick-
I agree w/ you there, but simply put, thats Bobby’s fault there…the guy is NOT a leadoff hitter! As soon as that is fully realized, he may actually reach his potential.
That being said, everyone can take a vote here:
Which two players would you remove from the OF rotation to be replaced by (___________)?
-Diaz
-Anderson
-Schafer
-Francoeur
Efrim
May 27th, 2009
5:21 pm
posted it twice, though it didn’t go through
Chop Chop
May 27th, 2009
5:22 pm
The main reason why KJ gets so much **** here is because he seems to be the personification of his team’s Jekyll and Hyde behavior.
When he’s hot, fans get fooled into thinking he’s going to be a great player. When he’s ice cold, fans get fooled into thinking he’ll never be any good again. On the whole, the stats will bear out that Kelly Johnson is a plus offensive player at his position. Nevertheless, he is frustrating as all hell to many fans.
noah
May 27th, 2009
5:22 pm
don’t see Shaefer ever developing into a keeper for the franchise
What does that mean? I hate anyone associated with steroids but aside from that issue he looks promising.
a643dp
May 27th, 2009
5:22 pm
Romangal—see my 5:19 post yes i would rather have Frenchy in center than have those numbers from Schafer.
Bay Area Steve
May 27th, 2009
5:23 pm
Kelly over Prado/Infante every 13 of 14 here.
But, how is it even a Kelly Johnson/Prado/Infante argument anymore? Infante’s hurt; Prado has recently played the OF, and KJ has in the past.
Francoeur to AAA, yesterday, Braveheart’s defensive metrics be damned.
I watched Francoeur closely in BP, last night. The bat drags…in BP…DRAGS, is slow, can’t catch up, the barrel of the bat consistently approaches the ball from below. You cannot succeed when your barrel drags like that. Maybe he figures it out in the minors, maybe not, but why sell low?
Diaz’ (or KJ, or Prado) arm is average at best, but I don’t think their range is significantly worse (WW’d disagree); doesn’t matter…play anybody but JF, please.
Mike S
May 27th, 2009
5:23 pm
Wow. Blue Jays just completed an 0-9 road trip. So much for best record in the AL…
noah
May 27th, 2009
5:24 pm
he’s just not a Brave
I meant to include this comment about schaefer above
idiots
May 27th, 2009
5:24 pm
yall are idiots think about schafer hitting before the pithcer he aint going to get crap to hit unless we are playing the cards cause their manager likes to start an inning with the pitcher hitting. any ways his defense is really good and it could be argued he saves runs this way. I think he needs to be moved to lead off let him hit their, let him get pitches to hit and steal some friggin bases. isnt that what he worked on all winter… let him lead off
Chop Chop
May 27th, 2009
5:25 pm
No right fielder’s defense is good enough to overcome the massive suckhole of Francoeur-like offense.
jtb
May 27th, 2009
5:25 pm
noah
I wasn’t trying to talk down on the Braves for lacking fire, just trying to point out that it’s not the Braves way to wear their hearts on their sleeves. While great during their tenures with the Braves; Glavine, Maddux, Lopez, McGriff, Sheffield, Chipper, Andruw, Wiess, etc. stayed very even keel through the ups and downs of the long season.
Tennbravefan
May 27th, 2009
5:26 pm
Would really like to see the Braves get Ankiel if he is available. You could plug him into CF and send Schafer to AAA. I really dont think he would cost much. I’ve also noticed that Blanco usually starts out on fire. Maybe call him up and if he has a decent month he could be traded.
bakerman
May 27th, 2009
5:26 pm
a643dp, that is the funniest lineup ever! Lotta runners taking the extra base and lotta gappers rolling to the wall.
noah
May 27th, 2009
5:27 pm
any ways his defense is really good and it could be argued he saves runs this way.
Agree completely. Schaefer has saved runs and defense is important. And it isnt like he hasn’t got a hit all year. We almost spent 10’s of millions on Furcal and he is only hitting .220
jtb
May 27th, 2009
5:29 pm
noah
I agree completely about Schafer. While I want him to do well for the Braves, he just simply isn’t a Brave to me. I’m hoping that maybe Gorkys will be more Brave-like and will replace him sometime in the next few years.
Il Cattivo
May 27th, 2009
5:30 pm
Choppertochipper
haven’t gotten fully engaged – would mean they havent had serious talks or are watching the market unfold. How you interpreted this to mean “don’t plan on getting one. Seems like it.” beats me. Simple english isnt it.
Not Easily Dazzled
May 27th, 2009
5:30 pm
Haha…this reminds me of that Orbit commercial where two women are yelling at each other and one calls the other a “Cootie Queen” and the other calls her a “Lint Licker”. haha…oh, me!
Love that commercial!
Not surprised my comment would strike a familiar ring to you. ::rolls eyes::
jtb
May 27th, 2009
5:30 pm
bakerman
When was the last time you saw KJ screw up defensively? It’s been a while.
Steve from OH
May 27th, 2009
5:31 pm
Yeah, a lot of those guys at Greenville are interesting, Efrim. But how many, and what quality? Can you get Pimentel? Federowicz? Kowenen? Rizzo? I don’t know…and I don’t know if it makes sense for us. Frenchy’s value is so indeterminate right now that I think it can go anywhere from a Reddick to a Luis Sumoza…
a643dp
May 27th, 2009
5:31 pm
Bakerman??? is that you Cox, sounds like it we should leave Schafer in Center break the record for the worst rookie SO record ever. Nothing is broke #6 lets leave it the way it is.
Roman Gal
May 27th, 2009
5:31 pm
a643dp
So you’d rather have Francoeur in Center field because he’s doing such a swell job in Right field, right?
Il Cattivo
May 27th, 2009
5:32 pm
Mike S
They wasted another good start from Halladay. He left after 7 innings leading 8-3. Bullpen meltdown yielded 9 runs and lost the game. So its not just us who have these issues I guess.
Bobby's Cox
May 27th, 2009
5:33 pm
Wow,
Shaun is back and I did NOT miss him.
Looks like he’s driving everyone crazy.
David O'Brien
May 27th, 2009
5:34 pm
NEW BLOG