2:38 pm May 21, 2009, by David O'Brien
May 21st, 20093:19 pm
Steve from OH
Kirkinga: From An Economic Evaluation of the Moneyball Hypothesis (2006) published in The Journal of Economic Perspectives:
“The diffusion of statistical knowledge across (seemingly) a handful of decision-making units in baseball was apparently sufficient to correct the mispricing of a skill. The underpayment of the ability to get on base was substantially if not completely eroded within a year of Moneyball’s publication.”
Authors are Jahn K. Hakes and Raymond D. Sauer.
They also show that 82.5% of the variation in winning percentage between two teams can be explained solely by OBP. By adding in slugging percentage to OBP (or in other terms, buy using OPS), they can explain 88.5% of the variance.
Yeah, so it was way, way better to use batting average back in the day, eh?
Macon Braves (RIP)
May 21st, 20093:20 pm
Ok, don’t even know how I got that one to work. Wasn’t even trying, just copied and pasted….is that all you have to do to put a link up?
May 21st, 20093:21 pm
Please tell me that the KJ to lead-off statement was not straight from Cox himself but just something you wrote to give us something to argue and whine about.
May 21st, 20093:22 pm
Airondack Dave join me my friend
May 21st, 20093:23 pm
Gonna test this out…
HTML tag for strong emphasis of text (i.e. bold).
i’m testing it.
And why would the Royals trade Callaspo?
That’s not working. It makes it blue, but you can’t click on it. What am I doing wrong here?
May 21st, 20093:24 pm
Macon Braves – yes just paste a link to have it show up.. The other way is a little more difficult and too cumbersome for me.
BravesinTN – Bennett was not pinch hitting. He was already in the game and pitching and hit for himself
Oh crap. I just remembered the curse of DOB. Not good.
Eric from MO
May 21st, 20093:25 pm
BravesinTN how were they being disrespected? I honestly see no way that they were disrespected in anyway. Besides it was an accident.
HTML tag for strong emphasis of text (i.e. bold).
I don’t get it. I’ll figure it out some other time
And please, don’t get me started again on all the reasons why Kelly Johnson should never lead off again!
Those shall all be used in that order before Kelly even sniffed the leadoff spot again.
Jeff321–I see other people having like one word colored blue and you just click on it. Guess that’s over my head right now though, I’ll just copy and paste anything if I need to.
Mike Cameron would be a good solution but unfortunately he will not be made available with the Brewers in contention for the NL Central.
Now thanks to a 4-5 day by J rollins he and KJ are tied for the league worst .262 ops LOL.
im sure that DOB meant to say that he thinks escobar will be the guy leading off…since he started the next sentence with “speaking of escobar…”
right, DOB? i hope so.
May 21st, 20093:26 pm
McFann’s Rally McTurtle…Ô…&#212
Attendance figures from the Associated Press. Dropped but the Bud is not foaming.
b HTML tag for strong emphasis of text (i.e. bold). okay let’s try this again. GO BRAVES!!
For you Braves fans out there « The Hobnail Boot
[...] 21, 2009 · No Comments Here’s an interesting little tidbit from David O’Brien’s beat blog today: Kawakami hasn’t quite lived up to expectations [...]
May 21st, 20093:27 pm
McFann’s Rally McTurtle…Ô…&Ocirc
a643dp (2:29 pm): “Anybody wanting to hear Smoltz pitch tonight here is the link click on Augusta Green Jackets 7:05et
May 21st, 20093:28 pm
Even if we did use a pitcher for a PH, how would that ever be interpreted as showing the other team up? It could be interpreted as showing them up if we put a good player like McCann to PH with a 10 run lead. If you are up by 20 points with a few minutes left in a basketball game and you put your bench in to play or if you take a knee to run out the clock in football would that be showing the other team up? Actions that would unnecessarily increase your lead would be showing a team up, not trying to give them a free out.
PWH-Never thought I’d ask this but, what was the BABAIP of this contact paragon?
I meant BABIP-I guess I was more stunned than I thought to be asking the question.
May 21st, 20093:29 pm
HTML tag for strong emphasis of text (i.e. bold).
Guess I ain’t gon’ get it lol
That should be http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/multimedia/audio.jsp?sid=l116
May 21st, 20093:30 pm
Macon Braves (RIP) – To do the one word colored blue you need to use the HTML code for a link. a less than symbol, then a href=URL then greater than — followed by the one word that is your link. Then to claose use lessthan symbol/a greater than symbol. Hope that makes some sense.
Thanks for the new blog, DOB, and for keeping things in perspective, as always. Looking forward to picking up Earle’s tribute album. I admit only a passing familiarity with Townes Van Zandt’s oeuvre – you have any suggestions of where to start with him? I think I recall reading that his studio albums don’t always do his songs justice.
Macon it shows you how to do it right Link text
Look under “An Html Link.”
Lew–do you really hate BABIP that much or are you being a bit facetious? Because I’ve never been totally sure…
May 21st, 20093:32 pm
Eric from MO: I didn’t know Bennett was already in the game, I was watching it speed-version thru DVR. I thought they pinch hit with Bennett. I apologize. I wouldn’t take it as “disrespecting” the Rockies, I just thought they might see it that way. Just an observation, not an opinion. I just was curious why no one on TV, or earlier posts, or DOB mentioned it (or much, on here). Just curious. I typically side with hitting batters as “accidental” – and maybe last night’s was…
I gotta give credit where it’s due. All year (and in the off-season), I’ve been praising D-Lowe and rightfully so, I must add. While at the same time I’ve been using Vazquez as what many of you refer to as my “whipping boy”.
Dude’s been a pleasant surprise. And I hadn’t noticed until DOB started this blog, that his ERA (my “gold standard” for starting pitchers – along with innings, which he’s compiled just fine), has now dipped belowe that of Lowe.
All along, I’ve been saying that I hope I’m wrong about my perception of what Vazquez is, was and will be for us this year.
So far he’s proved me wrong, and I couldn’t be more happy about it.
If he keeps this up. I’m not so sure, that trading him and keeping Hudson is the right thing to do. I guess it all comes down to how Hudson fairs when he returns. If he looks like the Hudson of old, then I think it’s safe to assume, that come next spring, Hudson would be the better choice, add to that, there is a shot of us retaining Hudson long term.
But if Hudson is shaky, it might be a better bet to decline the option, and roll with Vazquez next year. Either way, we’ve got Lowe and JJJ locked in next year. One could assume that Hanson and Medlen will be here to stay by next spring. Leaving room for Vazquez’ salary for one more year.
Hard to speculate at this point, since many things could happen to factor in. Including Trading Vazquez THIS YEAR if we could get a bat for him. Which is almost why I think it’s worth the gamble to bring up both Hanson and keep Medlen up here and see what they can do. If they both are capable, Vazquez could be expendable THIS YEAR.
But either way, NOTHING bad for us, can come out of him pitching as good as he has been. Either he’ll help us win himself, or help us win via trade. The better he is, the more we’ll get in return if need be.
Again. I’m officially drinking the Vazquez kool-aid. As creepy as that sounds.
May 21st, 20093:33 pm
Who is going to be released today so Medlen will have a place on the 40 man roster?
May 21st, 20093:34 pm
His BABIP isn’t abnormally high. Doesn’t have to be with a 95% contact rate.
the 40 man is not full…nobody’s getting taken off
May 21st, 20093:35 pm
Steve-In this instance I’m completely serious.
RHR, DOB, and others:
Yes, how much harder could the KJ at leadoff experiment fall on its face? I would hate to see how much further it could fall ….
Even if they don’t acquire Jake Peavy, the White Sox are apparently “open for business.” Stark takes that to mean names such as Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, Octavio Dotel, and A.J. Pierzynski could hit the market.
May 21st, 20093:36 pm
Vazquez has been our 2nd best pitcher all year and is near the top of MLB in strikeouts.
May 21st, 20093:37 pm
Lew–really? Makes me wonder why making fun of fielding percentage or something is less appealing…
May 21st, 20093:38 pm
How does the fact that the White Sox are trying to acquire players in any way indicate they are willing to let go of players for prospects? Those seem to be two different mindsets to me….if they are trying to trade prospects for Peavy, seems more likely they are playing for this year, not looking to sell off pieces for prospects.
May 21st, 20093:39 pm
About time N8 admits he was wrong about Vazquez.
I was going to propose a trade for David DeJesus, who drove in 78 runs last season, but his stats aren’t that impressive. What do you all think?
May 21st, 20093:40 pm
Again BravesinTN, the reason no one mentioned it is because the theory doesn’t make sense. People feel shown up when a loss is being rubbed in, not when they are given a chance for a free out by allowing a pitcher to bat. That is the equivalent of running out the clock.
Steve-How else could I p!$$ off you and Shaun?
Ok, gonna try this again..
Using Wordpress Site
May 21st, 20093:42 pm
Word Press Help Site
Bennett pitched the inning before and why use a pitch hitter in a blow-out game when you you don’t want to waste a bunch of pitchers and this guy needs to pitch some innings. This was in no-way showing up the team – in fact IF they had used a pitch hitter then that might have been showing up the team.
Cox does some dumb things like in a previous game when he let Moylen bat and then replaced him defensively before the next inning. This wasn’t dumb though.
RC I agree, looks to me like they are trying to win, not rebuild.
May 21st, 20093:43 pm
Steve-I’ve never made fun of any stat-usually just the people that are so wrapped up in them that they get all bent out of shape with anyone who doesn’t care about them on the level. They have their uses, but do nothing to make me enjoy baseball any less or more than I do already.
Did you notice your jinx struck again? J-Roll went 4-5 and is now neck and neck w/ Kelly.
Touche. Although good bloggers raising doubts about one stat is not something that will even remotely pi$$ me off…
(But all I’m saying is–lots of evidence to support it, dude 8))
May 21st, 20093:44 pm
Where’s the damn line-up? It’s already 3:45!
May 21st, 20093:45 pm
Question – Are N8 Comments worth reading? I’ve never read them because of the verbosity. But if worth it, I’ll carve out an afternoon to read them.
PWHjort, I disagree. JJJ has CLEARLY been our best starter. And I think early, D-Lowe was as dominant as anybody can be. Vazquez and D-Lowe have just slightly flipped spots lately. Which Vazquez stepping it up a notch, and Lowe leveling off a bit.
Eric from MO, please take notice that I stated “so far he’s proved me wrong…” Make no mistake. There is still 3/4 of this season left. In the end, I may still be right (for Braves fans sake – lets hope not). Like I said. SO FAR he deserves props and being true to my word, I’ve given him the props.
Will you be man enough to say that I was right, if he goes on a two month skid pushing his ERA around 4.50?
MFin04 (Time to Get Rid of Bennett, Buddy and Cox!)
Esco and KJ should not lead off. Esco is a 3 pitch per at bat hitter. Last night he did have some nice longer at bats, but over the long haul, I think he should be lower in the lineup to drive in runs.
Why not try Schafer there? We tried KJ there for a long time and he never broke out of the slump?
May 21st, 20093:46 pm
But what was the Dude’s BABIP?
May 21st, 20093:47 pm
RCHow does the fact that the White Sox are trying to acquire players in any way indicate they are willing to let go of players for prospects?
im not sure, but i dont think the white sox have alot of money to play with. so, since they are trying to get peavy, who is locked up for several more years, it could be looked at as a rebuilding move instead of a win-now move, you know what i mean?
if this is the case, the white sox would assume peavy’s contract for the next several years, and then dump of some salaries and players who are near the end of their contracts (all the ones mentioned are), and then the sox can try to make a move in the next few years, with peavy anchoring the staff.
i dont know what they are trying to do, but i could understand getting peavy as a rebuilding move and a win now move…either one.
I see according to Jason Stark Dye might be on the market, think he could be had? What cost would anyone pay for him?
Tomahawk210 …gosh..take it easy..DOB don’t work for you…
I don’t know how others feel, but I love watching our starters this year. They make you feel like you have a good chance every game. JJ right now is a top 5 in the NL, and LOWE and JAVY top 10-15. Now if we can get more out of 4-5 starters.
MFin04 is an idiot
May 21st, 20093:48 pm
Because Schafer is a walking strikeout, you moron!
You will get the lineup at like 5:30, chill out.
May 21st, 20093:49 pm
The Phillies make scoring 12-runs look like a walk in the park. They are scary good offensively! Ibanez leading the world in homers now.
May 21st, 20093:50 pm
MFin04 is an idiot:
I concur. I would lump in any and all that think Bobby Cox is part of the problem and not the solution as well.
The Dude doesn’t have a BABIP–he always hits a home run.
(It’s because he is The Dude, after all)
I realize Schafer is a walking strikeout, but no one else is suited for leadoff, Escobar, for this team right now, is not a leadoff guy and neither is KJ. No way Bobby puts Diory up there this quickly.
Both KJ and Esco are better served driving in runs.
May 21st, 20093:51 pm
Awwww the Macon Braves….I missed going to my gandparents on Easter the only time in my entire life so I could see Smoltzie make a rehab start there…and only after an hour of waiting in line I got his autograph…and then some random short player that I didn’t really know at the time…Marquis Giles…it was a well missed Easter.
May 21st, 20093:52 pm
Jeff321–That is exactly how I put mine in….I thought anyway. I’ll try it once more I guess, if it don’t work I guess it’s just not gonna work for me.
May 21st, 20093:53 pm
The Dude doesn’t deal in numbers and things…
Besides, I had a rough night and I hate the f’n Eagles man!
Steve Earle’s Townes is some great listening, and one hell of a tribute to a great artist. I haven’t listened to anything else since I picked it up, and it just keeps getting better.
This is probably blasphemy to some, but I think Earle’s version of “Poncho and Lefty” is not only better than the original, but better than anyone else who’s covered it. Willie & Bob included.
No surprises, Omar and Jo-Jo on the DL. Diory’s up. Going downstairs to get the details and other news.
I like Esco batting 1 out of this bunch. A lot harder to ground in to double plays when no one is batting in front of you.
Eric from MO Also take note, just because Vazquez is doing well, doesn’t mean that it was the right move for this team the way it’s set up (and currently struggling to score runs).
Flowers could have been used as trade bait for a hitter, or the 11.5 million dollars could have been used to sign a guy like Dunn or Abreu (provided they would have wanted to play in Atlanta).
Most of my contention, was that for what we NEEDED in the off-season (I honestly think that one of Medlen or Hanson will be fine up here – if not both), Vazquez was an unneccesary trade for us. But it sure is nice to have the depth.
Because part of that assumption was that Kawakami would be better than what he is/has been.
I’ve never dogged on what Vazquez is. It’s pretty clear what he is. He’s a guy that gives you innings and a VERY league average ERA. Doesn’t get hurt. Sometimes gives you a dominant performance and often gets hammered. My griping had more to do with trading Flowers, and taking on 11.5 million in salary for this year and next year.
Not about Vazquez’s actually ability. As long as he’s the #4 or #5 option in your rotation (even #3 like he is this year), he’ll be fine and just as good (if not better) than most team’s 3-5 guys. But he’s not an Ace. He’s not a savior. And considering how much money we have tied up into the pitching staff, and are not scoring runs, I’m STILL not convinced it was the “right” move.
But either way, he deserves credit for what he’s done SO FAR. That I’ll give him.
Schafer has been making adjustments lately and isn’t exactly striking out as much. Maybe at leadoff he will be more likely to put the ball in play and use his speed. It’s just a thought. It also helps to break up Frenchy and Schafer in the order.
May 21st, 20093:54 pm
Macon if you type it in exactly as I have without any added spaces and make sure the close the “A” tag it has to work, eh.
Lew–you should know me well enough to know that I’m going to approach analyzing the game in the same way I analyze things in my chosen field…I suppose that’s just how I’ve been conditioned. Empirical evidence is my thing, you know…
May 21st, 20093:55 pm
damn close tags. Forward slash, how you mock me!
OK, I give up, I put in exactly how Jeff321 put it in (I proofed it twice) and it still won’t work for me!!
May 21st, 20093:57 pm
May 21st, 20093:58 pm
Guys you didn’t sense the sarcasm in that post? I was just messing around.
May 21st, 20093:59 pm
I am constantly amazed to read the comments wanting guys like Juan Pierre, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, and even Jermaine Dye. These guys may still be able to hit, but they are generally bad to atrocious in the field. When the Braves pitching is good, the defense is usually also excellent. I would rather have a good and fast player in the outfield even if they are not a great hitter. The idea of trading away a future possible savior in Gorkys Hernandez makes me ill to think the Braves might do it for a guy who is getting old (this from a 62 year old) and rusty. When Andruw was great in the field, he was invaluable, no matter whether he was hitting or not.
Escobar is bating .270 with no one on base and .344 with runners on. Also batting .447 with RISP.
Yeah N8 i will but it wont happen.
May 21st, 20094:00 pm
Then can you explain how the flux capacitor works to make time travel possible?
Braves trade for Dye, it makes them the immediate favorites to win this division. In my opinion. Phillies can’t pitch, Starters or ‘pen. Mets can’t seem to stay healthy or consistent. How different would it be having a serious HR threat in the lineup?
May 21st, 20094:01 pm
Umm, I’m not a mathematician, thank God…
Though I think asking a “Star Trek” junkie might be the way to go!
May 21st, 20094:02 pm
I like the idea of trying Schafer at lead-off as well, he did well in spring training there(I know it was spring training) but it should be either him or Escobar because I’m getting really tired of seeing Escobar hit into a double play after the lead-off hitter gets on in the 1st. And KJ is not a lead-off hitter.
Guy w/ 2 first names-
Since when have Francoeur, Diaz, and Anderson been good this year out in the field?! For that matter, I haven’t seen him do it in quite awhile but Schafer was running full steam into fences for a bit and playing 2b into 3b…
I would say in adding a bat, we may have little to no concern for replacing one of the current corners…
May 21st, 20094:03 pm
Sorry I had to when you went w/ the whole “empirical” thing…
BTW, thats from Back to the Future…I am no Trekkie!
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