2:10 pm April 28, 2009, by David O'Brien
April 28th, 20096:30 pm
DOB, I would encourage you to read Chapter 1.2 of :Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game Is Wrong” authored by the guys at Baseball Prospectus. The chapter is entitled “Is David Ortiz a Clutch Hitter?” and it is written by one of the best minds to ever think about baseball, Nate Silver (that dorky guy from BP that’s appeared on Baseball Tonight recently). A quote from the chapter: “Producing wins at the plate is about 70 percent a matter of overall hitting ability, 27 percent dumb luck, and perhaps 3 percent clutch skill. It’s your choice what you do with that 3 percent.” Another quote: “Regressing clutch ratings in even seasons against clutch ratings in odd seasons results in an R-squared of .10. Simply put, it suggests that 10 percent of clutch-hitting performance can be explained by skill, with the remaining 90 percent a matter of luck. That’s a much higher skill quotient than other studies have identified. But to paraphrase Bill James, the observation that clutch-hitting performance is random is more true than false.”
Eric from MO
April 28th, 20096:31 pm
Mets09 Matt Holiday is batting .240 with a .296 OBP and no homeruns. You can have him. He put up great numbers at Colorado but dont most hitters.
Frank from KS
April 28th, 20096:32 pm
You actually give the Braves a chance of scoring 1 run with as bad as their offensive output has been at times….now that’s being quite generous.
Wow Mets09WSchamps, you actually believe the lowly braves will score a run on the mets? Which one of your aces will suffer through that disgrace?
O’Hawke, not just you. That’s how it looks to me, too. Odd. I like the analogy, trying to hit in fading sunlight. Shadows are crossing our infield, man.
April 28th, 20096:33 pm
I do have to agree our lineup does not strike a fear….
April 28th, 20096:34 pm
beaten to the punch
I had Infante batting leadoff in my predicted lineup, but was off on Schafer and Diaz in is the lineup. HEY, Schafer not batting 8th…WOOO-HOOO!
April 28th, 20096:35 pm
I going to keep KJ’s back covered because he has been hitting in the leadoff position for one reason – we don’t really have anyone else to do it. That kind of sums up KJ’s service to the Braves. He will do anything Bobby wants to do whether or not it is the best thing for him. I respect him for that.
With that said and BMac on the shelf our lineup is going to be makeshift no matter what the order. I had a thought, and I don’t want to be crucified for it but it is an interesting proposition. Chipper is hitting .333. He has an OBP of .400, 2 HR’s and 8 RBI’s. He’s not doing much good in the 3 slot, so while we don’t really have a leadoff hitter, what about Chipper taking one for the team and let’s see what happens. He hit .365 last year with a .470 OBP. He could be a tremendous leadoff hitter since he is not hitting for power or driving in many.
That’s not set in stone but just a thought while KJ is slumping and BMac is DLed. Anyone else have an opinion?
April 28th, 20096:36 pm
I’m guessing Maine
April 28th, 20096:37 pm
We could trade for Andruw Jones
i don’t like KJ’s mentality that he doesn’t like hitting leadoff. I like the other mentality, you know, when a guy thinks, “I’ll hit anywhere, as long as I’m in it.”
It’s been a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy on KJ’s part.
April 28th, 20096:38 pm
Thanks, Dave. I majored in analogies, back in the day.
The braves dont hit for minorities just as they dont sign them. White boys dont steal bases, they cant run, they’re not athletic, and the Braves love them. What does that equal, another subpar season. Good luck braves fans, it will be a long summer.
April 28th, 20096:39 pm
If Lohse can just give a couple bases loaded walks, we’ll be in business.
I talked to Kelly about his slump (says leadoff has NOTHING to do with it), and to TP and Chipper about importance of stolen bases (you might be surprised at response, particularly TP, who thinks they’re important) and to Schafer about possibly hitting leadoff (says he’s not consistent enough yet, etc).
I’ve got to get my notebook done first, but I’ll share some of that later. It’ll be in the notebook.
purely out of the generosity in his heart, eh Frank.
My friends the Braves doesn’t have a lead-off hitter neither a decent clean-up, may be RSM is right Chiper sould do it even if He doesn’t like it, but like Kelly we don’t have other choice, but returning to kelly if he is not hitting then bunt be patient like he was once and get on base using all posible ways if not bench him for a while and give a chance to somebody else like Infante for example, but Bobby don’t do that because ” he is the player’s manager”, but that hurts the team if somebody is not producing should be in the bench!!!, Please !!!!
April 28th, 20096:40 pm
Kelly Johnson would suck if he tenth in the lineup! He’s just an average baseball player, he will never be a difference maker. What does that mean, he will be a life-long brave.
Stealing?! Are you kidding me? I’ve been screaming at the TV for years about that. I’m not even sure if Bobby is aware that that is a facet of the game. I don’t expect it to change anytime soon.
The thing that I don’t understand about Kelly as a leadoff hitter is that he has been told to “be more aggressive” at the plate. That’s not his nature, so if Bobby wants an aggressive leadoff hitter, he needs to put Yunel (or maybe Schafer) in that spot.
It might not work out, but what we have now isn’t working out.
April 28th, 20096:41 pm
How about this for a lineup:
April 28th, 20096:42 pm
TP…was a cardinal..of course, he believes in stolen bases..where can we read your notebook..dob
Even Corky is slugging higher than Kotchman. Let’s keep marching him out in the cleanup position, Bobby.
April 28th, 20096:43 pm
TP says Schafer isnt consistent enough yet, but Kelly Johnson and his .208avg is?
Braveshater – The braves dont hit for minorities just as they dont sign them. White boys dont steal bases, they cant run, they’re not athletic, and the Braves love them. What does that equal, another subpar season. Good luck braves fans, it will be a long summer.
I understand why you would want minorities on the team. Afterall, Elijah Dukes might be your Daddy.
April 28th, 20096:44 pm
I think KJ will hit wherever the team puts him (that is what I was going for in my comment). I just remember him saying leadoff was not his favorite position but if the team felt that is where he was most helpful that is where he would gladly hit. If they want him to hit 8th, he would gladly hit 8th.
That’s a bold strategy, Scott. Let’s see if it pays off.
April 28th, 20096:45 pm
As soon as McCann come back, our lineup should be: Schafer Kotchman Chipper McCann Francoeur Johnson Escobar Diaz/Jones
April 28th, 20096:46 pm
haha spotts, i guess i hit enter and it sent in my post instead of dropping down a line.
April 28th, 20096:49 pm
Chop Chop, the only person telling KJ to be more aggressive is KJ. Bobby has said he doesn’t need KJ to hit like a leadoff hitter, just to hit, whether that’s taking pitches or not. It was KJ ( I believe it was in his in-game dugout interview in ST) who said he got better last year when being more aggressive.
April 28th, 20096:51 pm
Is there app for hitting?
April 28th, 20096:52 pm
Don’t worry Scott. I heard it a lot of times. “A little mystery in a lineup can be a good thing”. (Or was that a “relationship”?)
April 28th, 20096:54 pm
Our line up (IMO) should be this:
4.McCann (if his career isn’t over)
9.pitcher (until the NL decides that the AL has it right with DHs)
April 28th, 20096:55 pm
Predictions for tonights game?
I’m gonna say JoJo blows up in the fourth and gives up 5 runs
Maybe the Braves get a home run from an unsuspecting spot tonight, but to no avail.
April 28th, 20096:57 pm
Tom i think that phrase goes more for relationships than a lineup. The Bravos have had enough mystery in their lineup for the next 25 years by starting a 1B platoon in 2007 of Scott Thorman and Craig Wilson, Corky Miller as a backup catcher the last 2 years, and having Gregor Blanco, who had an OBP .140 pts higher than his batting average, hit leadoff every game (not to mention his 11 XBH in something like 500ab’s last year.)
Mine as well start working on tomorrow’s blog…Braves try to avoid sweep…Braves try to keep from folding…Can anyone hit?
No, seriously. Lohse isn’t awesome, but neither is Reyes. Even if he pitches well, Pujols will get him.
April 28th, 20096:58 pm
Just got Direct TV – can somebody tell me which channel has the peachtree Braves coverage? I cannot find it on the listings.
Scott..Scott Thorman was released today…..I hope we sign him.. He was good in the clubhouse. The team liked him.
waiting on study of whjort’s brain…#$@&*% he’s been on a high all day
Okay, Sandivel. If Kelly’s doing it to himself, get him the hell out of the lineup (or drop him lower) and put a guy in there who isn’t going to play self-destructive mind games.
April 28th, 20096:59 pm
I meant I’d probably choose Prado over Infante if either was to start full time. Which they aren’t this year.
April 28th, 20097:00 pm
I think Ross could hit cleanup better than anyone until Mac gets back
April 28th, 20097:01 pm
Why did JJ just act all excited about JoJo starting this game?
April 28th, 20097:02 pm
Followed by Chip Caray calling this game a baseball treat …. a baseball treat?!?!?!? JoJo is starting
Last 12 games 0 HR 2 RBI 6BB 6K 0 2b 1 3b after the count is 0-1 he is hitting .212
With men on…………. .160 plus the later he hits in the game……….the lower his BA.
No need to tell his name.
April 28th, 20097:03 pm
I don’t know about you, but I’d like to see JJ do the play-by-play.
Chip Caray said that last night’s game was “a joy to watch.” He also said that the game was played between “two very good teams.”
April 28th, 20097:04 pm
JoJo can be reduced to JJ after taking out the o’s. So, JJ thought that he was starting.
April 28th, 20097:05 pm
Peachtree is 651 but if you go to 720 they will give you the other channels it is on – and where to see it in HD>
1. Remember last year how stubborn Bobby was with the lineup? He is at it again.
Johnson is NOT a leadoff hitter!!!
2. Watching Adam Dunn hit towering homers on ESPN makes me sick.
Why did we not go after him?
3. How long will Terry be our batting coach?
4. Do we consider a 500 April a success? I don’t.
I seriously feel bad for JoJo, even if he pitches a no hitter he’ll still lose.
18 Wheels of Love
Umm, when did Glavine get such a beer gut? I guess it has been a while since he played. His belt buckle was at 45 degrees on the clips they just showed.
April 28th, 20097:06 pm
Eric, “if his career isn’t over”? My God, and I thought I could be negative! Dude, get off of here with that BS! Nobody wants to here it.
As I’ve been saying here for 3 years, Cox is not the man for this type of squad. He won’t play small ball. Hasn’t in years. Won’t start now.
This team will continue to struggle until they start playing scrappy and manufacturing runs, as long as payroll sits as it is and they can’t sign top shelf bats.
It isn’t going to happen, I don’t think. We had this problem last year.
The Braves offense has been struggling mightily for years, and it stops at the top of the order. No leadoff man, no spark, no runs.
If you remove the 10 run outbursts from last year (in games we only needed 3 to win), this offense was SCARY bad.
No running, no fundamentals,no workig the count, mistakes on the bases, etc.
Anyone who thinks the same cast that couldn’t play small ball last year would suddenly start this year is kidding themselves. Same squad.
There will be flurries of offense when brief power surges make Bobby’s “Earl Weaver” approach pay dividends, but most of the year it looks like we are in for more of the same.
DOB.. I’m jsut wondering if you’ve ever heard Bobby say that he’s not fond of stealing bases. I know that some managers don’t care for it too much, thinking they will be taking the bat out of the hands of their better hitters. Have you ever heard Bobby talk about his philosophy on it? I know when we got Grissom, his stolen base attempts went down from when he was in Montreal. I’m not sure about Nixon or Lofton. Furcal stole a lot when he first came up, but seemed to back off after his first season. What are your thoughts on this?
Also, do you get the sense from being around the team that they are tuning Bobby out? It seems like they are playing with so little fire nowadays. I know Bobby says he still loves being there and I’m certainly not going to question his ability after all he has proven, but I just wonder if some of the team gets tired of his patience with teammates who are struggling. It sure did seem like Chipper was alluding to that with his comments.
April 28th, 20097:07 pm
Braves win 7-4 tonight!
April 28th, 20097:08 pm
Hey Chop Chop – Chip gets paid well to say that crap. He is not a straight shooter like his dad was.
He also works for like 10 different stations calling games so he is not a true Braves announcer in my book.
i feel sick to my stomach every time Dunn homers too. Here’s how we win today. Let JoJo throw five innings and pull him. Have five consecutive batters lean into a pitch. hope the bullpen keeps the lead
April 28th, 20097:09 pm
I heard Chip on the radio earlier and he must have said with passion how “THE INCREDIBLE” Ryan at SS and how Pujols owns the Braves. He couldn’t even give the ST.Louis lineup without throwing “THE INCREDIBLE” Ryan at SS. Man, he makes my blood boil!
April 28th, 20097:10 pm
For everyone screaming for Dunn, give me a break. Sure he may hit 40 home runs, but he will give up much more than that with his putrid defense. You can’t hide him on the field. He is nothing more than a DH. why do you think no other team in the majors would sign him?
Bold Prediction Corky,
April 28th, 20097:11 pm
i just ate dave’s notebook arf
Ibanez would have been a much better signing. But, we didn’t, so we might as well get behind who we have and pull for them like real fans do:)
I hope you’re right CorkylikesBeer. But remember, we’re up against a fundamentally superior team in the Cards.
I still hope you’re right.
Time to get a little double pits to chesty with it, boys!
April 28th, 20097:12 pm
DOB – I’m one who skims over most of your music recommendations, but have been looking for some new tunes and thought, I shouldn’t ignore until I try. Manchester Orchestra is excellent (listening to the CD now) – with about 5 above average songs (when you usually can only find one or two decent songs on a cd).
I’m no longer one of those that will grumble when you post music recommendations – in fact, keep them coming (otherwise I’m going to have to go into your archives and see what I can find!!).
April 28th, 2009
For everyone screaming for Dunn, give me a break. Sure he may hit 40 home runs,
uhh….that is more than the entire outfield hit last year, and possibly this year. ill take the occasional error in left
Stephen…mark my words…Reyes will pitch well tonight…
Everlast wants to know why JoJo stole his beard
Pujols is struggling badly
April 28th, 20097:13 pm
!995, Put TV on mute and turn on radio- Don calls it straight, The BEST.
Steve from OH
Coach, not flipping out, just working on some research. Frustrated? Yes. But I’ve got better things to do than continue to argue with someone who thinks sample size is an “opinion.” Yikes.
Real fans don’t accept mediocrity, Ugaman. I thought we got that through your skull last night.
Macon Braves (RIP)
mr. baseball–If I’m not mistaken, Escobar led the MLB in double plays hit into last year, so that kind of throws out your whole “Kotchman will hit into too many DP’s” argument
April 28th, 20097:14 pm
i like beer arf
this will be a BB to pulous. then 1st and 2nd with 1 out. Then a single. Then it’s ballgame.
I hope so Corky, but with this putrid offense he’ll likely get Jair’d.
Is it just me or are all the cardinal hitters standing on top of the plate? I promise if JoJo would throw a 90mph fastball over their head they would back off.
April 28th, 20097:15 pm
Ibanez was rated as one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball, Ugaman. The same was true of Bobby Abreu. Nevertheless, if your defense in other spots is solid, you can afford to have a crappy defender who can rain bombs on the heads of fans in the outfield. After all, it’s not like porous defense at one position is impossible to overcome if really good D is played at other positions.
we need a 6-4-3
April 28th, 20097:16 pm
Enjoy the game, folks.
Women an chlidren firts….this is going to be a massacre…
April 28th, 20097:18 pm
We are going to have positive mental attitude tonight
Oh man, the dude with the huge biceps is on espn.
DANG IT HOSS!
I hope chipper didn’t hurt his precious body
Macon Braves (RIP), yup. Escobar hits into a lot of them. That’s why, in this lineup (with not real leadoff hitter), I’m very much in favor of hitting Escobar leadoff. We should flip Escobar and KJ in the lineup, IMO.
Once again Chipper Jones can’t come up with it. Now, if he hadn’t deflected it — I see Escobar making that play.
April 28th, 20097:19 pm
April 28th, 20097:20 pm
KC— I could go with Escobar leading off. Still think Kelly should be farther down the order though, 6 or 7. He seems to thrive down in the order and I think Kotchman fits into the 2 hole perfectly.
I just punched a hole in the wall after they scored…ALREADY! I’m serious, my hand is covered with blood
For everyone screaming for Dunn, give me a break. Sure he may hit 40 home runs, but he will give up much more than that with his putrid defense. ……. Ibanez would have been a much better signing.(ugaman)
So you dismiss Dunn who hits 40 homers and walks 100 times but want Ibanez, who does neither and who’s pretty awful defensively as well?
April 28th, 20097:21 pm
robbed. bet it bites us.
Tough break for JoJo there…Esco probably would’ve kept it on the infield. Good work to limit the damage on Duncan by JoJo.
April 28th, 20097:22 pm
Damnit!!!! JoJo gives two runners a free pass, and one of them has already come into score. I’m so sick of watching walks (and beanballs) kill us.
TnB – I feel ya.
27 pitches for JoJo in the first. Strikes out the side though. So good for him.
We concluded last night…that we would ignore ugaman comments..braveheart
chipper couldnt get the ball fire him
<— thats what some people on this blog would say!
We talk baseball, other sports, music, movies, BBQ and whatever (except politics or religion)
Atlanta Braves RSS feed
Previous entries »
Send a feedback technical issue
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution