2:10 pm April 28, 2009, by David O'Brien
April 29th, 20092:40 pm
Mark, on Norton:
just my opinion, but Norton was one of the better pinch-hitters in MLB last season. His results this season certainly aren’t great, but he isn’t having bad at bats. His role is a very tough role and one that very few younger players could handle.
April 29th, 20092:41 pm
the name barry bonds should used in any form when speaking of the atlanta braves now back to our regularly scheduled programming already in progress
April 29th, 20092:42 pm
If JOJO has another good outing, I say we shop him around…get a power bat to play LF. We need to strike while the iron is hot…I have no confidence with JOJO long term and we still have Hanson,Morton, Medlen, Heath, maybe Glav etc. that can fill the 5th slot
April 29th, 20092:44 pm
Well, Jackie, the hindsight argument makes less sense in the Abreu/GA case, as both didn’t sign until quite late, at or on the eve of spring training — not the case with Ibanez and KK, who signed within the first few months of the offseason. (And, signing Ibanez would have been dumb for this team, with our young OFs coming up, why do you pay an old guy like Raul for 3 years? Abreu’s value is that he is productive, durable, and would have come both cheap, and for just one season.)
Lew — I’m sorry your baseball with my signature also has the scrawlings of those scrubs. If you’re ever up in Malden, Mass., come by the house and I’ll sign a clean baseball for you.
DOB — any insight on the Abreu question?
April 29th, 20092:49 pm
i mean should NOT
norton has the same result as jeff francouer does in his last 15 ABs. the difference is, norton has only had 15 Abs, so lets wait a little while longer before considering him garbage.
Wayne in Utah
Be careful, or you will show how little you really know about baseball.
Kevin-It’s a deal. Vermont isn’t all that far from Mass.- Maybe I could cross out Rocker’s name?
Wayne-Maybe we could get Freel for a song, but I doubt you’ll find anyone here on the blog who’s willing to sing Abba and that’s probably what it would take. Maybe if DOB sang some Whitesnake?
18 Wheels of Love
April 29th, 20092:50 pm
I’m just trying to solve the worlds problems from my old man chair. Glad I could contribute to the comedic side of the blurg today.
Never saw Infante play in Detroit, I have watched him play ever since he got to ATL, in that time he has never once shown me that he couldn’t start. All he has done is play excellent defense and be a solid .290-.300 hitter. He may not be a power guy, Kelley would hit more HR’s over the course of a season, but he can pick-it better than Kelly. But while Kelly is hitting .200 and your team is struggling why not start Infante at least until he proves to be as bad as Kelly is right now, or start him in left. Personally I think he would out-hit Diaz over the course of the season avg. wise. I don’t see holes in his swing like Kelly’s or Diaz’s. JUst don’t believe relegating someone to a “bench player” based on 3 years ago versus what they have done lately is smart baseball. Sure if he was playing behind a star or at least someone was playing well you wouldn’t want to start an experiment. But as it stands you have a guy sitting who all he does is perform well when given the opportunity.
April 29th, 20092:51 pm
Give Norton a chance to start a game at 1b and rest slow poke Kotch..I think 4 ab’s will help him get his swing back…I would rotate Norton between 1b and left field and allow him to start at least one game a week total
MFin04-Yeah, but we would have to send Vick to the minors on Bark in The Park Day.
April 29th, 20092:52 pm
BTW, the difference in salary between Brandon Jones and Greg Norton is just $400K.
Macon Braves (RIP)
April 29th, 20092:55 pm
Norton was the BEST pinch hitter in baseball last year. Yes, he has had a tough start, but there is no way Brandon Jones would be able to thrive in a pinch hitter role. He’s still a young guy who needs to get at bats. And he’s not making that much less than Norton so it wouldn’t be saving much money, Norton only makes $800,000 this year.
If JOJO has another good outing, I say we shop him around…get a power bat to play LF
Better yet lets go wild and get two more starts and we have Santana and Beltran.
April 29th, 20092:56 pm
and we all know KJ is going to come around…
People on here are so funny! We bash Kawakami for a few mediocre starts to his MLB campaign, yet we still stick by a guy who 2 years ago we thought would be in Utely’s wheelhouse but continues to be as streaky as Khalil Green.
April 29th, 20092:57 pm
Lew—Nice one about Vick. Would that be for the pups’ safety, or Vick’s?
April 29th, 20092:58 pm
I could always come back, if the ‘pen needs help. What’s the worst that could happen? Ventura’s not playing anymore.
P-Town Brave (Kelly Johnson Sucks!)
April 29th, 20093:01 pm
The real problem here-
We handcuffed ourselves when we decided we didn’t want to spend the money to get Bobby Abreu…
Oh yeah, I heard you DOB when you said he wasn’t worth it…
So far the man is hitting .368 w/ a .400+ OBP and has 8 SB in 8 attempts…
Oh, and he’s play 1000% ball on defense in LF, which actually is a position he hasn’t played since 1997.
Unlike Anderson…Abreu has been durable…and consistent…
He’s sounding awfully good right now isn’t he? Just wait til he gets his power stroke down in LA…
I know one thing for sure…I’d certainly fear him more in the cleanup spot than I would Casey Krotchman!
Lineup for tonight should be:
1) Infante LF
2) Prado 2b
3) CJones 3b
4) Ross c
5) Francoeur RF
6) Schafer CF
7) Escobar ss
At this point Ross seems to be our only real power threat to place behind Chipper…
And in all reality, I don’t have a clue where to put Francoeur.
Diaz got the big hit last night, BUT I don’t think he can hit Wainwright’s curve…thus Infante to LF and Prado to 2b….
PLUS, Wainwright has had location trouble so adding Prado and subtracting Diaz would mean we should see more pitches…
April 29th, 20093:02 pm
yet we still stick by a guy who 2 years ago we thought would be in Utely’s wheelhouse but continues to be as streaky as Khalil Green.
Yes, it is odd that an .800 OPS for a 2B tends to make one reluctant to nuke the player. Go figure.
April 29th, 20093:03 pm
KJ is nowhere near as streaky as Kahlil Greene (with an “e”). Greene hit .213 with 10 HR, 30 runs, 30 RBI, and 5 SB last year. KJ is 2 years younger and hit .287 with 12 HR, 86 runs, 69 RBI, and 11 SB last year. KJ isn’t Chase Utley, but he’s certainly not Khalil Greene.
I also still fully believe Schafer should be batting leadoff…I just don’t see Bobby doing it because he’s a stubborn old mule!
April 29th, 20093:05 pm
P-Town Brave, did DOB actually say that Abreu wasn’t worth $5m? I have a hard time believing that, but maybe I, like ol’ Rog, am misremembering.
“I also still fully believe Schafer should be batting leadoff…I just don’t see Bobby doing it because he’s a stubborn old mule!” – P-Town Brave
When I was saying I miss having Shaun’s statistical arguments before, this was the alternative I was talking about. Not quite sure how you back up the argument that someone is a “stubborn old mule”. Especially when that person has won more baseball games in their lifetime that most of us have ever been to.
April 29th, 20093:07 pm
I believe DOB said that the Braves didn’t have $5 million to spend on Abreu. Which was accurate, because they ended up only spending another $2.5 or so on Anderson.
April 29th, 20093:08 pm
You don’t think that if JOJO has a solid month that we couldn’t package him with another player to get a decent bat??? Have you seen the Nats rotation? Do you realize that when Milledge comes back they have 5 starting outfielders for 4 spots. There are plenty of teams that could use a cheap lefty who if he strings together a few good starts in a row could draw interest…package him with B. Jones and I’ll guarantee a small market team will bite for a cheap young starter
Chuck James was Solid until the 6th!!!
April 29th, 20093:10 pm
Good one Lew!
Few autograph hounds outside the Braves’ lot already, in beach chairs DOB
Beach chairs? Probably the same folks that yell “you lazy bum” and make fun of Anderson for loafing. I have a no-beach-chair-autographs policy.
April 29th, 20093:13 pm
Hey Dave, can you bat cleanup for us?? Cause we got Nada. Kotchman is LaRoche reincarnated but with no power. Escobar needs some bench time cause his lazy attitude needs an adjustment(ran thru stop sign & got picked off) Schafer is not ready for the Show(he should be at Gwinnett) Garret was a wasted move(need to platoon Diaz & B. Jones, he has some speed) & Duece K is pitching like Douche K (might need Hanson sooner than later) Ross has been a pleasant surprise & looks like Frenchy will be fine but we need Mac back! Go Bravos
Lew…lol…Bark in the Park day…lol.
I’ve watched enough baseball to know the guy hasn’t changed his philosophy that he had with the 1995 team he has with the team now…
He just assumes that Lowe/Vazquez/Jurrjens will pitch like Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz everytime out and that Jones/Kotchman/Francoeur will perform like Jones/McGriff/Justice…
He plays station to station baseball, no stealing, no hit and run, and fully hopes that we are going to pitch shutout ball and sit on the 3-run HR…
Unfortunately we just don’t have that team anymore and haven’t for awhile…
It shows now even more w/ Andruw gone because he was our last real power threat that was here a full season…
We’re 20+ games under .500 since the end of 2005…
A philosophy change is necessary OR a coaching change is necessary…one or the other…and we both know Bobby isn’t changing.
I will also stick by my statement that many a manager would have won w/ a rotation w/ 3 HOF’s and a middle of the order consisting of Jones/McGriff/Justice.
I agree hat if JoJo can string together 4-5 starts, he might have more value as a trade piece.
I don’t see a trade for a while, but by the All Star break, Hanson will hopefully be ready and if we still need a bat, JoJo might be a nice PART of a package.
I hope Escobar is on the field right now taking some baserunning lessons. He has been horrid on the basepaths this year. Maybe they don’t teach them in Cuba to pick up the third base coach while on the bases. No excuse whatsoever for that boneheaded play last night. He didn’t even glance at Snitker at any point.
tell me the game is not on peachtree again tonight…my imagination needs a break i need a visual nothin against powell and lemke
April 29th, 20093:15 pm
I have a no-beach-chair-autographs policy.
Excellent choice. Mine is somewhat stricter, LOL.
PCHTV again tonight…at least I get the Chip N Joe Show.
No, RC, we could have afforded Abreu, with GA’s $2.5 plus the money we set aside to pay Glavine (including his incentives).
DOB, correct me if my math/contract specifics are off.
April 29th, 20093:16 pm
P-Town —– the Lineup…I think after his screw ups…Esco rides the pine…
1) Infante 2b/ss
2) Prado 2b/ss
3) CJones 3b
4) Ross c
5) Francoeur RF
6) Schafer CF
7) Jones/Diaz LF
well looks like another night sittin infront of the radio looking at it as if it was a tv
April 29th, 20093:20 pm
Wayne-Maybe we could get Freel for a song, but I doubt you’ll find anyone here on the blog who’s willing to sing Abba and that’s probably what it would take.
Oh, I don’t know…I have a sneaky suspicion that there are those on the blog who are willing to break out in “Dancing Queen.”
Nolie – “no, it’s an opinion that not everything is about stats, one I agree with. BUT, when stats are being discussed it is largely about sample size as any statistician would be willing to tell you. You can throw 20 heads in a row, but as the sample size grows it gets closer and closer to 50/50.Not a perfect analogy but simple.
So I’m thinking that you don’t really understand sample size as it pertains to stats.19 games is not even a drop in the bucket of sample saixe. Chipper hit .249 one year and .364 another. Neither one was indicative of his ability even though the sample size of each was way beyond 19 games.”
Yes, having taken several quarters of college statistics, I understand “sample size” very well. I also know that statistics by their very nature are simple recordings of what has transpired and not what “will” occur. That said, we do use statistics to “predict” what will occur. So in terms of the “strength” of any prediction, the size of the size of the sample comes into play – but it still does not change what has already occurred regardless of how large/small the sample might be. BTW, for an event that “should” occur 31% of the time, 25% and 36% are well within the standard deviation (i.e. Chipper’s two extreme seasons really are not that “extreme” as to his “expected” batting average despite most people’s perceptions to the contrary). So, yes, both .249 and .364 are very indicative of Chipper’s ability – you’ve just wrapped those numbers with context (i.e. what is considered “good” in baseball vs. what is considered “bad” in baseball and not what is considered “normal” within the statistical realm)
And based on your analogy, it appears that the issue you all seem to be missing is that you seem to believe you “know” what the result “should be”. Everyone likes to use the coin flip analogy because it is a 50-50 proposition. However, it fails as an anaology because there are no unknown variable – unlike real life. So here’s a better (and more apropos) analogy:
There are 100,000 pieces of paper in a bag, each with a number on them. You pull out 100 numbers. 38 are even and 62 are odd. But now the variable – I tell you that the number of odd pieces of paper are different than the number of even pieces of paper – but I do not tell you how much different they are.
Now – the question, what are the odds the next piece of paper will be even? The reality is you cannot accurately answer that question. You can guess. But you will never know. Now most people who do guess will use the 1st 100 numbers to “guide” their guess. Again, the statistics are simply recordings of what has occurred not a guarantee of what will occur – but if forced to guess most will use that as some sort of prediction tool even though it represents 0.1% of the possible results.
And this leads to the “strength” of the guess. If people had to bet money on the next result, but could decide how much to bet, most people would want a larger sample size before placing a large bet. Small sample size leads to uncertainty – but if forced to bet they will still likely use the 100 previous numbers drawn to guide their decision.
Now, let’s say 900 additional numbers are drawn and the totals show 365 even and 635 odd. Now, when asked to pick the odds of the next number being even, it will still be a guess but there will be more faith put in the guess.
So, yes, it is a guess that Schafer would have a better OBP batting lead-off than KJ. And it is a guess that KJ would have a better OPS batting 7th or 8th than batting 1st. And both of these are “weak” guesses based on sample size. But since no one KNOWS what Schafer’s OBP “should” be or what KJ’s OPS “should” be, you need to come up with something better than “sample size” if you’re going to dispute that both of these guesses (i.e. opinions) are wrong (also an opinion). Because while the samples may not be large, they are larger than the samples that show Schafer would have a worse OBP or KJ is better batting first – because these samples simply do not exist.
April 29th, 20093:22 pm
Cory Gearrin played with me my sophomore year in JUCO (Young Harris). He was a freshman that year.
His velo increased significantly and he really came into his own. He’s incredibly smart and a pretty staunch political guy.
Also a huge Redsox and Braves fan.
Glad to hear he’s looking good with Myrtle.
April 29th, 20093:24 pm
With all we’ve invested in JoJo, we should try to keep him if he somehow finds a way to carry his AAA success to the bigs.
We need a lefty starter.
yeah, once all the great pitching he have got on the books, we were basically looking for a platoon player for LF. i pushed for abreu throughout much of the offseason…dang hed be nice right about now…but alas….
Hmmm, I have a theory on “lost” posts. For those of you who have had your posts eaten by the blog, how do they correlate to the timing of an encyclopedia size post being processed/uploaded at the same time as the “lost” post?
April 29th, 20093:25 pm
Why do people assume that Abreu would have just signed with the Braves if they’d given him the same salary that the Angels did? I’m not a fan of the Anderson signing, but we don’t really know what it might have taken to get Abreu here.
Skip & Pete Fan
April 29th, 20093:26 pm
Are there any DirecTV customers in southwest Georgia who can confirm that the Peachtree games are broadcast on BRVS to the whole state? Just curious…
April 29th, 20093:27 pm
Slugger, thanks for scoop on Guerrin.
DOB, although Frenchy is 1 for 15 over the past four games he has not struck out much in this little slump. I think this is something very positive we can take from it. He is putting the ball in play and this leads to shorter slumps.
April 29th, 20093:30 pm
The rumor was that we did offer Abreu a deal. I said rumor.
April 29th, 20093:31 pm
You’re right, Sir Stealth, we don’t know that Abreu would have signed for the same salary to play in ATL. That’s why I asked DOB for more info…how heavily we were in on him, if it was even a realistic possibility, etc. All that we do know is that we clearly had the money, b/w the GA and Glavine deals, we just didn’t go that route because we have an inane connection to Old Man Tommy.
jennifer in GA
April 29th, 20093:33 pm
Skip and Pete fan… I have direcTV and I live in Donalsonville GA.(SW) and I BRVS and it was the peachtree station. I dont know if its in the whole state though…
April 29th, 20093:34 pm
Know how Schafer is always compared to Grady Sizemore? Take a look at this:
Grady Sizemore first 77 ML Plate Appearances:
.277/.377/.431, 1 SB, 0 CS, and 2 HR
Jordan Schafer first 78 ML Plate Appearances:
.277/.397/.446, 0 SB, 0 CS, and 2 HR
Sizemore didn’t become a leadoff hitter until he’d played about 75 games (split over the end of ‘04 and the start of ‘05).
So far, the comparison remains pretty valid, and I’d guess Jordan will be batting leadoff by the end of May if not sooner.
April 29th, 20093:36 pm
For the record, I didn’t like the Glavine or Anderson signings and do wish we’d gotten Abreu. I’m just not sure it was the either/or that it’s been made out to be. Maybe I just don’t want to believe that it was, because that would certainly have been a helluva lot better. My guess would be that, things being equal, Abreu probably did prefer the Angels over the Braves.
mbatl- I understand why alot of people are calling for Schafer to be in the leadoff spot. I do agree that he needs to be down in the order for now. He is still young and needs to learn.
April 29th, 20093:37 pm
So because you’ve watched baseball, you know that Bobby Cox isn’t a good manager anymore. Because I’ve watched a good bit of baseball since 1995 as well, and have also read COUNTLESS accounts of players, other managers, front office executives, and baseball media who claim that Cox is one of the best in the game. And if he hasn’t changed at all, there is no reason that fact should have changed either. I will be the first to admit that I don’t always agree with the tactical decisions he makes during games, but I know there is a hell of a lot more to being a major league manager than knowing when to call for the hit-and-run. And while you might find a manager who is better at in game decisions, I guarantee you he will not be NEARLY as good as Cox in the other areas of the game, and will likely cost the team wins in the long run. But fortunately, it really doesn’t matter what you think or how much you complain, because Cox isn’t going anywhere until he decides he’s done.
I live just north of Valdosta and we’re making the switch from DISH to DirecTV.
April 29th, 20093:38 pm
Sir Stealth- I love Glavine, but dude needs to hang it up, he has had a great seasons over the past. The Braves need to let him go and try to get some more pitching…
April 29th, 20093:39 pm
well Skip and Pete fan…. if u do u should let me know so we can get 100.00 from directv… the refer a friend and we both get it
April 29th, 20093:42 pm
Sorry, already scheduled the installation!
Putz just blows another lead for Johan Santana…. looks like last year to me… Mets can’t hold on to a late lead…. Marlins up 4-3 top 8
April 29th, 20093:45 pm
Ted, unfortunately, the “pieces of paper” analogy doesn’t quite hold, either, but I give you points for using it. I think you underestimate the variable of athletes performing to their historical norms, over time, as a factor in the strength of the guess.
I suppose we’re incorrect in saying you are “wrong” in your opinions on Schafer and Johnson (and I didn’t actually see those opinions, so I’m inferring here). More correctly, I might say that you have a low probability of being right, based on the amount of data used in forming your opinion.
It’s just easier to say, “Dude, you’re wrong.”, LOL. Good post, though.
Skip and pete fan….. I dont know if u have to get the MLB package to see the braves on the BRVS station.. we have the MLB package so thats why we get it
April 29th, 20093:47 pm
NEW BLOG IS UP
the only time we get the PTV network is when the braves come on..
I hope not!
April 29th, 20093:48 pm
Right, that was my understanding also.
Can someone please post the new blog link?
April 29th, 20093:51 pm
and the MLB package is like $150.00 u can pay in payments
April 29th, 20093:52 pm
Tony is not pitching to Chipper 5 W’s in 2 games. We really miss McCann
April 29th, 20093:54 pm
OK, now it should be up
April 29th, 20093:59 pm
i must be missing something cause i dont see a new blog,lol
April 29th, 20094:00 pm
Where is this alleged blog of yours DOB ?
April 29th, 20094:04 pm
P-Town Brave (Kelly Johnson Sucks!) – He just assumes that Lowe/Vazquez/Jurrjens will pitch like Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz everytime out.
ERA 95 Maddox 195 Glavine 308 Smoltz 318
ERA 2009 – Lowe 310 Vasquez 262 Jurrjens 172
April 29th, 20094:05 pm
I think Wordpress ate DOB’s blog.
Run Heap Run
April 29th, 20094:07 pm
Maybe only cougars can see it?
April 30th, 200910:28 am
Mbatl- I would agree with you about Schaffer/Sizemore comparison. He needs to continue his film study and i might even wait till closer to the All-Star Break before moving him into that leadoff. What you want to try and avoid is what happened to Francoeur when he came up. Hot start that started to fizzle pretty quickly as pitchers figured out how to pitch to him.
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