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646 comments Add your comment
Couch Tater
March 28th, 2009
9:30 pm
Unbelievable finish by Villanova.
AdirondackDave
March 28th, 2009
9:30 pm
Steve in Ohio — Couldn’t agree with you more, Nate Silver is a freakin’ genius. I’ve been faithfully reading “538″ for most of the last year. Does he also have a baseball site? Name? Thanks.
ease19
March 28th, 2009
9:31 pm
BTW, if you were picked last in gym class…my computer has been running slow lately, any thoughts?
Steve from OH
March 28th, 2009
9:33 pm
Cheyenne, I don’t think they’re the same. What I believe would happen is say Schafer goes down for three weeks, gets called up. He would play all of ‘09, ‘10, and ‘11 at league minimum (as he would then have more than two but less than three years of ML service at this point, I believe). If be became a super two, he would then his remaining four club controlled seasons would be arb seasons, instead of one more league minimum season and then three arb seasons.
This could be totally wrong, because I’m basing it off the the super two rules posted above and the stuff off Givens’ blog (which I’m assuming is correct). If I am, please correct me!
Perhaps DOB could help us all out?
Cheyenne
March 28th, 2009
9:34 pm
nolie…I hope to be a millionaire by 2014…if that helps make my point… Ease
Good luck buddy. Don’t forget all of us here on the board.
dogsbrekky
March 28th, 2009
9:35 pm
yes ease19 and how many game did we lose again ?
no offence to JA or Blanco but we did not win 14 straight division titles through mediocrity and the cry of the average I hear each day hear now and from supposed MLB FO types makes me want to puke
We would be better (if they were going that route) to do a real purge and just play ALL KIDS…. it would be more exciting that way
save real money that way…… instead of all of us haggling over whether some 22 year old will be super 2, or gone by 2015……
brian
March 28th, 2009
9:35 pm
If Jordan wins the job and deserves the starting CF job, then keep him in Atlanta. Deal with free agency in 2014. Who knows what the economic situation will be then. It is not worth the ill will generated sending down someone who deserves it simply to control him one more year.
If Jordan deserves it, keep him in the majors. If he is as good as we all think he is, work on keeping him a Brave. Don’t alienate him
David O'Brien
March 28th, 2009
9:35 pm
Unbelievable finish in this Villanova-Pitt game….
NorthBeach Scott: You are correct at 8:32 p.m….
Folks, regarding the Prince of Polk County (Schafer): While it might be reasonable to consider keeping him down at Triple-A for a month or so to avoid going to arbitration until after the 2012 season instead of 2011, it’s a bit much to start talking about SIX years away and free agency.
I mean, there are so many things that could happen in the next five years, to the team or to the player or whatever, that to think the Braves would make a decision now based on free agency six years down the line … no, I can’t see that. Haven’t heard that mentioned by any Braves officials, either.
If Schafer’s as good as the Braves think he could be, then he might be a player they’d want to lock up to a long-term deal in a couple of years anyway, so the whole free-agency thing would be moot, as far as whether he’d be a free agent in six or in seven years, etc.
Even the arb thing has slipped in importance as it’s become clear how ready Schafer is for the majors. If the Braves believe he gives them a better chance to win right out of the box — they really, really want to get off to a good start — then they’re not going to let Anderson’s no-options or Schafer’s arbitration clock be a decisive factor in the decision, from what I’m hearing.
Steve from OH
March 28th, 2009
9:37 pm
Adirondack, Silver is Managing Partner of Baseball Prospectus, and the creator of PECOTA, although it does incorporate the ideas of some others, such as Clay Davenport’s translations.
dogsbrekky
March 28th, 2009
9:39 pm
TY Dobi One Knobi – I suspect the FO and Bobby may want to put the best team out there this year seeing they need to sell seasons tickets that are normally $22 per game (lowest than the lowly low Yankees ticket) for 75% OFF at $6 per game
The Schafer kid excites people like no-one I can recall since another certain CF in the 1996 WS……….. easy decision and a cashfloe +ve one is to start him NOW
Steve from OH
March 28th, 2009
9:39 pm
DOB, thanks for the info on Schafer. Like I said, I really don’t have an opinion one way or the other (so long as he’s not in AAA till June), but I wanted to see what y’all thought.
David O'Brien
March 28th, 2009
9:40 pm
Schafer’s Wafers: Josh A. has six years of pro-ball experience, minors and majors.
mbatl
March 28th, 2009
9:41 pm
That’s why we bloggers pay you the big bucks, DOB. Thanks for the perspective.
Just great college basketball tonight. My bracket (well, the one I filled out before the tourney) is all blown to heck, and I’ve got no dog (get that, UGA fans) in the fight… but just great stuff.
ease19
March 28th, 2009
9:41 pm
dogsbrekky …My point exactly!….
ROLL CALL
I am just curious, how many have played the game, say above the high school level? I now that there are alot of statisticians out there, but do they know what they are talking about or can just fix my computer?
nolie
March 28th, 2009
9:41 pm
I see it as more of a general guide rather than as a tool to say something like “see? Garret Anderson will hit exactly .296 this season,” or something like that Steve Ohio
and what do you do when you look at PECOTA and CHONE and BILL JAMES and see that each one is entirely different? What real life good are systems that vary that much? As I said ballpark figures maybe, but it would take a damn big ballpark to hold both of those predictions about Prado expressed earlier. I’m not putting down anyone who uses them and I find them kinda interesting to be aware of,but that’s the extent of my belief.
AdirondackDave
March 28th, 2009
9:43 pm
Steve in Ohio — Many thanks for the info on Nate Silver. I’ll be looking into it for sure.
ease19
March 28th, 2009
9:46 pm
DOB
My point is…if Shafer has not played above AA ball (regardless if he is the better player), why was not Hanson considered or Heyward, or Freeman, etc…It seems that we are counting our chickens before they hatch…per say.
Steve from OH
March 28th, 2009
9:47 pm
nolie, that doesn’t really bother me all that much because I don’t have much interest in the others because, like I said, I don’t feel they are as sophisticated as PECOTA, based on what I’ve read. I don’t really go and search out projects (I like to look at stats and draw my own conclusions, personally), but if I see a PECOTA projection I take it into accout. Like you, I see it as more of a ballpark than an absolute.
But like I said before, PECOTA does have somewhat of a track record for accuracy, so I’m not going to completely dismiss it (nor will I any other stat or scouting report–the more info the better). I’ll never use it as the main line of reasoning behind an argument, but rather as a sort of fun fact, if you will.
Tom O'Hawke
March 28th, 2009
9:51 pm
“BTW, if you were picked last in gym class…my computer has been running slow lately, any thoughts?” – ease19
Witty post, although it’s my expert opinion on humam nature (no, not really, but you guys don’t know any better), that the real nerds use a handle like “Paul Bunyon”, “Super Stud”, “The Enforcer” etc. I’m thinking that ” last picked in gym class”, was really all-state in wrestling.
nolie
March 28th, 2009
9:51 pm
Sorry for the extremely long-winded post, but ask for my opinion on something and ye shall recieve! Steve
if I wasn’t interested I wouldn’t have asked. Did PECOTA suggest that Chipper would hit .364 last season, or .249 a few years ago? J/K, I’m sure it didn’t…but I just think that there are too many variables for any of them to be mostly correct most of the time. Hey why don’t you pick a couple of hundred players for adequate sample size you know, and go back over the last say 3 or 4 years for each one to find out what PECOTA predicted and how they actually ended up? Good term paper there? My guess is that the correlation would be pretty low, but I might be surprised. Don’t thank me for the idea, just get started right away.
Schafer's Wafers
March 28th, 2009
9:52 pm
DOB,
Thanks for the knowledge. Makes my point a moot one. Let the kid play. I understand the send Hanson to the minors. He is a pitcher his arm needs to be protected a little. Makes sense but not letting Schafer have the job that he has seized by the horns would be a travesty IMO. I am obviously biased.
Tom O'Hawke
March 28th, 2009
9:52 pm
If I really was an expert in human nature, you’d think I would be able to spell the damn thing!
mbatl
March 28th, 2009
9:55 pm
“PECOTA does have somewhat of a track record for accuracy”
Steve, is there any sight that posts PECOTA’S past player predictions, like for 2006 or ‘07? (I know they got some press for picking playoff teams in ‘08 pretty well, but I’d be real interested in seeing specific player predictions for past years). Haven’t been able to find it, but maybe it’s out there…
Steve from OH
March 28th, 2009
9:56 pm
nolie, no freakin’ way. I’ll let someone else do the work for me, thank you very much. I’ve got way too much on my plate as it is…
As for Chipper, I’d bet that the .364 was somewhere near his PECOTA 90th percentile, which is about right in terms of his career path, don’t you think?
ease19
March 28th, 2009
10:04 pm
Tom O’Hawke, I guess you could say the same about Kenny Powers, Scharer Obligator, Mets Fan In Atlanta, #1MetsFan, etc, etc…
Icehouse special is kicking my butt about now, so I bid you all denizens a good night!
Steve from OH
March 28th, 2009
10:10 pm
nolie, mbatl, here ya go. There is the analysis of PECOTA after its first full season in ‘04, and it did pretty well.
In 2007, it had a median difference of 3.5 wins for it’s projected standings (it had Atlanta winning 82 games; they won 84) and it correctly called Chicago’s fall to winning 72 games (it had them at 73).
I haven’t been able to find any more comprehensive data, and I know that PECOTA has been improved since its first season in 2004, but it’s purely up to you how to use it. Like I said, I don’t place too much stock in it, but I like to know what it says, and I feel it is sophisticated enough to merit discussion.
FWIW, it has the Braves winning 87 games and tying for the wild card with the Phillies this season. So I’d like to buy that
brian
March 28th, 2009
10:13 pm
glad I got my 9:35 post in before you DOB
keylargo
March 28th, 2009
10:13 pm
It’s not a case of Super 2 but of having control of him through arbitration. If he stays out of the Majors part of this year, his 6 year clock will not start until next year, providing that he is up permanently then. He will then be under the Braves salary offer for three years and then 3 years of arbitration.
To make a long story short, if he stays out part of this year, he will be under Braves control for seven years, not the six if he stays up all this year.
Another thing to consider is how many other players will come up like Schafer (Hanson for instance) that might sign for major money in the same year. Too many of those would make it impossible to sign major contracts for all players. So you might face having to let someone go into free agency because you could not afford them.
keylargo
March 28th, 2009
10:21 pm
I mean, there are so many things that could happen in the next five years, to the team or to the player or whatever, that to think the Braves would make a decision now based on free agency six years down the line … no, I can’t see that. Haven’t heard that mentioned by any Braves officials, either. DOB
That hasn’t gotten Gonzo, KJ or JF signed yet. In fact of all the Braves players, only McCann has signed a long term contract before being eligible for free agency. Maybe Chipper too, but not under this collective bargaining agreement.
Anthony
March 28th, 2009
10:25 pm
DOB,
In determining options, once a player is put on the 40 man roster, the team has 3 years to move him between the minors and majors? So, for a guy like Clint Sammons, since was first put on the 40 man roster last year, the braves have 2 more years of options with him?
Roman Gal
March 28th, 2009
10:34 pm
A good article on Schafer over on Yahoo:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ge-schaferbraves032809&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
Some clips:
Braves sources said that if the decision was made today, the left-handed hitting Schafer would be the everyday center fielder ahead of two other young players.
“The kid’s tooled out of his mind,” Braves catcher Brian McCann said. “He’s got every tool you could possibly ask for. He’s a great kid, and he wants to be a great player. That’s all you can ask for.”
Roman Gal
March 28th, 2009
10:37 pm
McFann
You have a strange memory. I don’t remember exactly what those boys looked like, but I seem to remember them looking like little punks…and mean. I don’t Brian could ever look like that…even if he tried.
f.n.hale
March 28th, 2009
10:40 pm
“Put some windex on it” – me
“HUH” – McFann
Sorry, trying to be funny using what I thought was a not so obscure movie reference. In Big Fat Greek Wedding, the father thought putting windex on anything would heal it (re: Mac’s finger).
“I just like to read what some of our good posters think.” – nolie
Agree totally. Too bad we don’t have a way to project a poster’s quality before reading. There are a few of you guys that are pretty much spot on every time, a few that you know will be a total wastoid when you see the name, but most of us have good and bad moments so you have to read the good with the bad.
What if we had a major league and minor league blog? Could work something like:
DOB – “f.n. we’re going to have to send you down to Chop Chick. It’s a numbers thing. We think N8 has his meds straightened out and is ready to come back up so somebody has to go down. We want you to go down and work on your syntax, keep a good attitude and hopefully we’ll get you back up soon. Lew’s been falling asleep at the keyboard and that prostate isn’t getting any smaller so we may need to send him out for rehab and we want you ready.”
smitty
March 28th, 2009
10:52 pm
What are the stats for Diaz LHP vs RHP in ST. He’s looked good so far.
Anthony
March 28th, 2009
11:01 pm
anyone know of a website where you can find out how many yrs a player has been on the 40 man roster????
Gil In Mechanicsville
March 28th, 2009
11:01 pm
At the rate the US is printing money, we may all have to become millionaires just to be able to buy bread… Being retired makes me recession proof but it does not make me inflation proof….
10-80
March 28th, 2009
11:12 pm
well done f.n.
RIP Skip
March 28th, 2009
11:14 pm
I agree on Hanson in Gwinnett. But…dumb question…
How does pitching in AAA rather than the Bigs “save” a pitcher’s arm? I’ve always wondered that. He’s still going out every fifth day. He’s still brining the heat, snapping off the breaking stuff, etc…
Ive never understood the logic.
ATLBfan
March 28th, 2009
11:19 pm
From everything I’ve read, and what I saw today, I think Schafer is ready for the majors and could help out our club. I’d have to think he was in the lead right now, and unless he just falls off a cliff, he should win the job. I agree with what you said DOB, I don’t think the whole arbitration thing should matter. I could see them not wanting to let Anderson go, but if Schafer is clearly the better player and is ready for the majors, you have to bring him up. I mean, you are going to loose Anderson now if you put Schafer on the roster, or if you wait you’re still going to loose him. If he is in the lineup tomorrow on back-to-back days, I think that shows you he is clearly in the lead. We should have Kotchman and Garrett Anderson back tomorrow, so maybe all of the regulars will be in the lineup.
10-80
March 28th, 2009
11:20 pm
pitches in the minors dont count, kind of like how there are no calories in birthday cake
Couch Tater
March 28th, 2009
11:23 pm
f.n.hale,
funny post @ 10:40, if you read this.
nolie
March 28th, 2009
11:26 pm
HALE very funny
10.80 you too. I knew I liked birthday cake for some reason.
PWHjort
March 28th, 2009
11:26 pm
ncscoots, what’d I miss? What do you not know whether we’re far apart on yet, lol?
David O'Brien
March 28th, 2009
11:26 pm
Anthony: yes, this season and next, if Sammons gets optioned to the minors next season.
David O'Brien
March 28th, 2009
11:30 pm
Roman Gal: Thanks for linking my man Gordon Edes’ story. Gordo was here today and talked to Schafer after the game.
10-80
March 28th, 2009
11:33 pm
nolie, believe the same applies for booze on a 21st b-day and cigars on your baby’s birthday…like a small gift from your body
TnBrian
March 28th, 2009
11:34 pm
Why didn’t they just x-ray Mac’s hand to be 100% sure a bone isn’t broke?
How many disappointed folks will there be if Schafer doesn’t make the team and why would the Braves do that?
WHHHHHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY???
ATLBfan
March 28th, 2009
11:35 pm
DOB, who are you picking to win the NCAA Championship? And what are you season predictions (title winners, NL and AL Champ, World Series Champ)?
spotts
March 28th, 2009
11:36 pm
Question: I heard somewhere that Matt Wieters would only have to spend 12 or so days in the minors before his arbitration clock was pushed back a year. Could the same be said for Hanson/Schafer, or does the time vary?
kdbanks
March 28th, 2009
11:41 pm
My vote goes for Shafer over both Anderson and Blanco to start in center.
Anyone catch the U.S. vs. El Salvador game tonight? Awesome comeback by the U.S. once they got their heads out of their butts in the last 20 minutes.
10-80
March 28th, 2009
11:42 pm
i was thinking same think tnbrian, seems like they can test these guys as easy as giving an advil and the phalanges are so small would be easy to chip one and have it cause problems for a while if not taken care of to begin with
10-80
March 28th, 2009
11:43 pm
KD, yeah i just saw that too, pretty awesome. Hated all the flopping around by the el salvadorians so was great to see that we got em at the end!
kdbanks
March 28th, 2009
11:45 pm
RIP Skip: Two ways AAA saves an arm better than the bigs. First, there are fewer games in a minor league season (although if he gets called up, this is moot.) Second, and more important, Hanson won’t have to work as hard to get guys out in AAA, because he’s facing lesser hitters. Less pitches needed to work the same number of innings. Fewer long innings, requiring 25+ pitches. That sort of thing.
richbrave
March 28th, 2009
11:50 pm
f,n, hale:
You sir are a funny man.
From one of the unreadables.
Anthony
March 28th, 2009
11:51 pm
DOB,
Can a player theoretically be on th 40 man roster forever and not be called up to the majors? Since his 3 option years aren’t being used up because he isn’t being called up at all, it would make sense the team can keep him in the minors as long as they want.
richbrave
March 28th, 2009
11:52 pm
The soccer match was exciting. Enjoyable. But why the litters for half the El SAL team?
10-80
March 28th, 2009
11:53 pm
i loved that the paramedics were wearing hardhats.
richbrave
March 28th, 2009
11:53 pm
GIL:
Scary and apropos.
wilymo
March 28th, 2009
11:55 pm
RIP SKIP: How does pitching in AAA rather than the Bigs “save” a pitcher’s arm? I’ve always wondered that. He’s still going out every fifth day. He’s still brining the heat, snapping off the breaking stuff, etc…
Ive never understood the logic.
I think the idea is that higher leverage innings are more taxing on the arm because you’re going to naturally have more adrenaline and effort behind your pitches. Whether its minor league vs. major league, or mop up vs. closing, etc.
richbrave
March 28th, 2009
11:57 pm
f.n. hale:
Maybe the unread should be called the unforgiven, or the untouchables, or more appropriately the undead. How about un-night. Until tomorrow then.
flbravesgirl
March 29th, 2009
12:01 am
Very relieved to hear the report on Mac.
f.n., very amusing post.
The sonic boom rattled my house. I thought a branch hit the roof from the high winds at first, it was so loud.
PWHjort
March 29th, 2009
12:01 am
spotts, their arbitration clock isn’t pushed back after 12 days, their free agency is. Meaning, they’ll get 4 arbitration years but 6.9 total years of service before they reach free agency.
PWHjort
March 29th, 2009
12:15 am
FW in today’s game during the broadcast: “Infante’s our backup Center Fielder”. I guess that means we won’t be carrying 5 outfielders. Which makes a ton of sense.
uga-brave
March 29th, 2009
12:20 am
best game of the tourney, pitt and villanova. best game.
i had villaova in the final four. got the ville vs. unc.
what a game.
Couch Tater
March 29th, 2009
12:39 am
uga-brave,
Who do you want for your basketball coach?
Bubdylan
March 29th, 2009
12:40 am
f.n. hale, that 10:40 was just great, man. Funny and good-spirited; a rare combo.
spotts
March 29th, 2009
12:46 am
Couch Tater – I’ll pretend that question was directed at me. And I would like Jeff Capel
Roman Gal
March 29th, 2009
12:48 am
Sure thing, DOB.
By the way, your Schafer story was real good too.
Couch Tater
March 29th, 2009
12:53 am
He seems like a pretty humble guy and can coach.
Roman Gal
March 29th, 2009
1:13 am
Being retired makes me recession proof but it does not make me inflation proof…. Gil
I’m neither proof
Speaking of the economy…it’ll be interesting to see what happens with Chipper. I know they want to sign him, but how will it play out? If they give Chipper let’s say $10 million per year for 3 years, and in three years the economy is worse than ever, how will that effect what the Braves are able to do?
Yo no se.
uga-brave
March 29th, 2009
1:20 am
couch tater,
i would love to have jay wright.
i love brooks brothers.
every suit i own is from BROOKS BROTHERS.
JAY WRIGHT is a brooks brother kinda guy.
got the straight blue two button. got a nice pinstripe three button.
brooks brothers rules.
uga-brave
March 29th, 2009
1:27 am
for some of you BROOKS BROTHER’S is over your head.
best suit, their two button blue suit is the standard.
want a job?
wintervillle wants a job? great suit.
go to brook’s brothers.
Mitchie-san
March 29th, 2009
1:41 am
f.n.hale, are you suggesting a rating system for people who post, kinda like on Ebay? I guess DOB could give out gold stars to good posts!
Intersesting idea….
winterville
March 29th, 2009
1:47 am
uga-brave
I’d love to have an opportunity to wear a suit right now. I can’t even get in the door with a lot of places. I have some prospects though so no worries. Right?
A-ville Ranger
March 29th, 2009
1:48 am
Just a quick observation.Judging from what I’ve seen in preseason, the steriod era is over, or at least interupted.There’s a very obvious difference in body mass / muscle tone from what we’ve seen the past 12 years or so.These guys look like players did in the 80s and early 90s.
uga-brave
March 29th, 2009
1:52 am
winterville, finance major right?
no worries your degree from georgia is gold.
winterville
March 29th, 2009
1:55 am
Risk management and insurance but close enough. Just takes time, as I’m learning. I’ve got nothing to complain about and in the long run things should turn out alright.
uga-brave
March 29th, 2009
2:03 am
good grief, i took risk managment from the legend. EJ LEVERETT.
dude insurance, for all of you that do not know, winterville probably spent many nights a caldwell hall and brooks.
uga-brave
March 29th, 2009
2:07 am
winterville, my addess was 320 south lumpmkin street. lived in a frat house. you know that corner between wray street. lived directly across from the gilbert health center.
winterville
March 29th, 2009
2:08 am
Right you are my friend. Caldwell was like a second home but we got pushed aside in some of my other business classes. Had one in the drama dungeon room and a few others in the SLC. Anywhere they could find space I guess. They redid Brooks. It’s pretty nice now. It was a dump freshman year. I still get lost in there though. Alright I’m out for the night. Peace.
mets fan in atlanta
March 29th, 2009
2:10 am
As to why it protects a pitcher to start them in AAA:
It’s NOT because innings will be less stressful–those of you saying that obviously haven’t played at any level above t-ball.
It’s because in the minor leagues, the GM can dictate how many pitches or innings a pitcher throws, because the outcome of the games isn’t as important as player development. This is why the “Joba Rules” were so talked about, these things are usually only done in the minors, not the major leagues.
Hanson (and David Price for that matter) will probably be limited to 50-60 pitches for the first few starts, and then be increased to 70, and slowly go up. This doesn’t really fly in the majors, because the pitch count could be gone in 3 innings, and all of a sudden the bullpen is being exhausted every 5 days.
That is what they mean, not the silly reasons some of you came up with.
winterville
March 29th, 2009
2:10 am
Yea I know where you’re talkin about. I didn’t rush since I was from Athens already but I had plenty of buddies that did.
winterville
March 29th, 2009
2:14 am
I’m out for real this time.
spotts
March 29th, 2009
2:19 am
If I can join this UGA lovefest, I spent pretty much all my time in Leconte Hall (aka the ugliest building on north campus) and the library
uga-brave
March 29th, 2009
2:23 am
next to the holliday inn.
DirtyDawg
March 29th, 2009
2:28 am
I’m sure this has been posted here somewhere but dammit when is somebody going to teach Brian McCann the fundamentals of catching? He simply has way too many flaws in his technique. Forget that he can’t block a ball thrown in the dirt to his right, but the fact that he never hides his meat hand behind his leg is inexcusable. This was just another example of what can happen.
The interesting thing to me is that everytime the Braves broadcasters interview McCann or K Johnson and ask about their ‘progress’ all you hear is about their approach at the plate. When are we gonna see/hear about some work trying to improve their defensive skills. Sorry, but these two young men are a liability defensively…period.
spotts
March 29th, 2009
2:32 am
Actually, it seems that I’ve heard the Braves announcers brag about how McCann has worked on throwing out baserunners. They’ve talked about it several times the past few seasons, but runners are still stealing on him like (fill in the blank) plays firstbase.
I’m gonna go with Kenny Powers for the blank
PWHjort
March 29th, 2009
3:51 am
Mets fan in atlanta and others, the only reason Hanson (and Price) are starting in the minors is because it is better for the long-term health of the club. Keeping Hanson or Schafer in the minors for 12 days will delay their free agency a year, meaning, the Braves will control them for 6.9 instead of 6.0 years. Those 0.9 years are worth more than the opportunity cost of 12 days, or ~2 starts for Hanson and 10 games for Schafer. Now, I think the Braves should definitely call up Schafer after 12 days because he is CLEARLY the best option to fill the CF position. This will give him 4 arbitration years, which is bad for the financial health of the club, should he completely pan out (which I think he will). But those 1 and 3/4 months of Schafer could be the difference in playing baseball or golf in October. This opportunity cost is worth more than 1 year of Schafer arbitration salary. My stance on Hanson, however, is that if all 5 starting pitchers are doing alright, I say leave Hanson in the Minors until June so his arbitration is also delayed a year. That way, the club gets approximately 6.6 (repeating) years of MLB service from him but only pays him an arbitration year salary in 3 years of the 6.66, as opposed to 4 years of the 6.9. The Rays have to keep Price in the minors until close to June because they simply can’t afford to give him 4 arbitration years. The Braves could call Hanson up if they need to, but if they don’t need to, they should delay his free agency. He’s probably going to make a TON of money in arbitration and delaying it 1 year could be the difference in grabbing a free agent or retaining a player in his contract year. I think that the possibility of helping out the club in the future is a better investment than .233 years of Hanson. However, this only holds true if all 5 starters are healthy and effective. If you’ve already called Schafer up (which I think they should after 12 days), you’re already in win-now mode. And if you need a starter, you better call up Hanson. Otherwise, you’re not in win-now mode and using Schafer’s option and/or arbitration year was a useless waste.
Runnin
March 29th, 2009
6:54 am
Only one more week till opening day. This week will be interesting.
Questions that will be answered this week:
Who’ll win the CF job? (aka What happens to J. Anderson and Blanco?)
Will G. Anderson be really ready or really rusty?
Will Soriano step up and be somebody already???
Is McCann’s finger gonna linger?
Will someone else get hurt before we leave Florida?
Could Kawakami be as good as Matsuzaka?
Will Jeff hit a HR this spring?
Will Kotchman live to see opening day?
And finally, will DOB make it back to Atlanta without getting written up by the vice squad?
Just one more week…
ncscoots
March 29th, 2009
7:24 am
ncscoots, what’d I miss? What do you not know whether we’re far apart on yet, lol?
Just that I haven’t read enough of your stuff yet to determine your cred. And I don’t mean that in a snarky way, honest. And “cred” doesn’t mean “agreement”, by the way. Rational opinions and insightful observations delivered with civil discourse, whatever the side of the argument, tend to make me look for and read a blogger’s posts. The other road leads to the scroll wheel, LOL. I haven’t yet come to judgment on you.
Re Schafer and his clock: the Braves have never before operated in the far-future financial mode, and it’s difficult for me to believe that they would begin to do so now. The organization expects to contend every year, not just some window of time in the future. The idea of adding a player such as Schafer to the 25-man is to maximize his performance at a time when it’s most beneficial to the team’s success, yes? If the team says that is “now”, then even a few days in the minors reduces his overall value to the club.
But there are a ton of other variables in play that are a lot more important than the potential size of Schafer’s contract in 2015 (or whenever). I doubt even Braves’ bean-counters have that at the top of their list for final cut-downs.
ncscoots
March 29th, 2009
7:34 am
but the fact that he never hides his meat hand behind his leg is inexcusable. This was just another example of what can happen.
Kinda hard to hide your meat hand behind your leg with a man on 1B, as was the case today. He had it behind the glove, which is proper technique. Foul tips go with the job.
David O'Brien
March 29th, 2009
7:52 am
Can a player theoretically be on th 40 man roster forever and not be called up to the majors? Since his 3 option years aren’t being used up because he isn’t being called up at all, it would make sense the team can keep him in the minors as long as they want. — Anthony
It doesn’t matter if he’s called up or not, because once he’s on the 40-man, he has to be optioned to a minor league team before the season begins anyway. So that’s one option used each season.
Now, if he’s WITH the major league team every year and doesn’t get sent down, he won’t use any options. So you could have a guy like, oh, Pete Orr comes to mind as a recent example, a guy who spends two or three seasons in the majors before using his first option (because he was up that long before ever getting sent down).
If Schafer was added to the 40-man in order to put him on the opening day roster, he might be a player who’d never use an option, or at least not for a long time. Wouldn’t use up an option unless and until he got sent down.
Gibby
March 29th, 2009
8:07 am
I have to agree with ncscoots about the way the Braves handle players. The Braves have never been afraid to start a players arbitration clock. If Schafer is ready to be our CF then he will be.
As to Schafer, his all out hustle reminds me of Pete Rose.
f.n.hale
March 29th, 2009
8:14 am
Whyyyyyyy chief? Why do I have to go down, for chrissakes, you got girls here.
DOB – “Suits have mandated we carry five women on the roster, and though we have six, McFannie is now our IT person which we desperately need with the new format, and frankly we don’t think we could get one of them thru waivers. Schultz has had his eye on RomanGallie for weeks.”
f.n.hale – “But you got Mets fans here”
DOB – “Again it’s the suits. They want diversity and said we should carry three bloggers from other teams. Granted we could only find 2 mets fans that could actually type and well, frankly the Phillies fans smell bad but we gotta be open to them.”
f.n.hale – “But what about Random, surely you could let him go?”
DOB – “Randomie is our page eater. That dude carries the whole blog sometimes and doesn’t even care if anyone else is here, he’s like the energizer bunny, just posts and posts.”
f.n.hale – “what about that Bay Area guy?”
DOB – “Stevie is our late innings guy. Nobody else we can count on to be here at 4:00 A.M. every day”
DOB (to reporters) – “we’ve decided to send effie down for a couple of weeks to work out with ChopChickie. He’s been doing great and we love his work and know he’ll be back soon.”
David O'Brien
March 29th, 2009
8:14 am
Anybody see video of the homer Howard hit at Bradenton yesterday. Was anyone on the blog actually there? It was wind-blown but nonetheless colossal, estimate at least 500 feet, they said. By the way, it was his eighth of the spring (I’d guess more than half are at that cozy ballpark in Clearwater, but eight is eight). He lost about 20 pounds this offseason, but doesn’t appear to have lost any pop.
Ben
March 29th, 2009
8:15 am
Woah, has anyone seen the AJC poll on the center fielders? Talk about a massacre!
David O'Brien
March 29th, 2009
8:16 am
f.n. hale, funny couple of posts. Especially like the “ie” added for Coxian nicknames.
f.n.hale
March 29th, 2009
8:25 am
Thanks DOB. few too many Coronas last night and just woke up in a weird zone this morning and thought I’d continue the thread.
Teetotaling TN Man
March 29th, 2009
8:29 am
Poison (aka “alcohol”) is for losers.
David O'Brien
March 29th, 2009
8:42 am
Forgot to mention yesterday, in the Triple-A game they pitched in, Moylan had two strikeouts and a groundout in a perfect inning, and Morton gave up one run, two hits including a homer and one walk with four strikeouts in two innings.