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978 comments Add your comment
Dave Drevecky
March 2nd, 2009
12:52 pm
John Foster LRP, si
KC
March 2nd, 2009
12:54 pm
Lew, get real. Throwing out PURELY hypothetical scenario says NOTHING about optimism or skepticism… because it tells you NOTHING about actual expectations.
Hy-poth-e-sis: a tentative assumption made in order to draw out and test its logical or empirical consequences
And based on what I emailed you, I can only conclude that your last post was intended to bother me, which is kind of uncool.
Dave Drevecky
March 2nd, 2009
12:55 pm
Ooops! ease19 is right it was Jay Powell. Foster simply sucked with his whole arm.
Supes
March 2nd, 2009
12:58 pm
KC, I completely agree that Harold Reynolds is wrong about the braves (in what he said). I believe he was trying to throw a bone “to the mariners fans and their franchise” and just trying to sound optimistic in defending KGJ’s decision.
As far as the Braves, I’ll be shocked (if our major players stay healthy) and we don’t contend in 2010 and beyond (considering the impact young players we have coming up).
I think this season, for me a .500 record would be commendable (anything beyond that I’ll be pleasantly surprised), but next year and the years after that, watch out. I think the Braves will be back to being a dominant team and the Mets and Phillies run will end (as far as being the top 2 teams in the NL East).
Lew
March 2nd, 2009
12:58 pm
Daniel-A hypothetical situation is nothing but supposition. Indulge yourself all you care to, but it doesn’t make it realistic or mean it will happen. Hypothesizing what numbers a player will put up is useless. How can you possibly know what their season will be like? It is as useless as those speculating we should sign Manny Ramirez. Why bother if you know it will not happen? It tells you absolutely nothing.
Had KC said “I think Jeff Francoeur will improve his numbers over his 08 production”, or “I think Tommy Hanson will be a stud pitcher in the Bigs”, I never would have said a word (and I tend to agree). You might note that I didn’t say his speculation of trades at the deadline were useless-I said I disagreed and told him why I did-that’s debate.
However, there’s conjecture and then there’s conjecture. Disagreement with a point of view does not constitute grumpiness. It denotes disagreement and nothing else.
Lew
March 2nd, 2009
1:00 pm
KC-Your use of Wikipedia is impressive. Considering I once taught HS English, I didn’t need your help. You just take it personally when someone disagrees with you. I was even being nice about it. I could have gone all Chop Chop on you.
KC
March 2nd, 2009
1:01 pm
Jim, I agree that you have to expect it to be Sept. before Hudson can return. And even then, you can’t bank on him. I don’t think they would be banking on him. I just mentioned him as one possible failsafe if Hanson inexplicably weren’t effective (which I think is highly unlikely).
I didn’t even give any thought to Hudson at all until I noticed what Chris Carpenter did last year after a September return from TJ surgery (looked pretty darn good). Just one possible asset down the road. But there are 5th starter options to go to if Hanson weren’t the answer. But again, they’re not going to do that unless they sure that Hanson is 100% ready.
northbeach Scott
March 2nd, 2009
1:02 pm
KC, you are overly optimistic and Lew was simply suggesting that the overly optimistic scenario was not surprising since it is consistent with your normal commentary. It is not that we do not appreciate your positive perspective on the Braves, but you are notorious for having the rose colored glasses on when it come to the Braves.
Regardless (not irregardless, as there is no such word), your hypotheis is a reasonable approach as we consider “what if” scenarios. You might have added an occurance probability of 5-8% as that is likely the upper limit to better qualify your theory.
Just messing with you KC
Epinephrine
March 2nd, 2009
1:03 pm
I don’t get all this, “hasn’t pitched above AA”. AA tends to be a more talented and competitive pool than AAA. AAA is filled with AAAA players, whereas AA is prospect heavy. Frankly I put more stock in what a guy is able to do in AA than AAA.
KC
March 2nd, 2009
1:04 pm
Lew, I don’t take it personally when people disagree with me. People disagree with me all the time here, if you haven’t noticed. And if I didn’t enjoy the debate, I wouldn’t post here.
I just take exception to responses that essentially say “this just shows how unrealistic you are”, which was the essence of your previous post. Disagree with me!! I welcome it. I enjoy it! But why can’t we debate the assertions, rather than trying to dismiss the person making that assertion? That’s all I’m saying Lew.
JOE
March 2nd, 2009
1:04 pm
in response to all this mid-season trade a pitcher for a power outfielder… i’m pretty sure that any teams that are going to be looking for an arm to lead them to the playoffs come the trade deadline are not going to be willing to dish out a power hitting outfielder to get one… those trades don’t happen… usually you send a pitcher to a contending team in return for prospects… i understand your scenario KC but i have to side with the others on this one
Epinephrine
March 2nd, 2009
1:05 pm
Also, I have said repeatedly I put little stock in spring training numbers…but with Jurrjens getting shelled again today, I do get a bit nervous. I think we all need to be cognizant of the potential of a sophomore slump with him. I think a lot of us are assuming he will only be better this year, and that is a dangerous assumption.
KC
March 2nd, 2009
1:06 pm
LEW, also, it was dictionary.com, not wikipedia.
Goes to show how much you know! lol
JOE
March 2nd, 2009
1:12 pm
the way i look at it we’re all excited to see hanson pitch this year. But in my eyes, its a win win. If its september and he’s not in the rotation, our pitching staff is having a helluva year and we’re in the playoff hunt. If he is in the rotation, we may still be in the playoff hunt, and we get to see a little more of that nasty slider everyone’s talking about!
KC
March 2nd, 2009
1:13 pm
northbeach Scott, some people haven’t been paying attention, but I’ve had a lot of that knocked out of me. For a good while, even early last season, I kind of expecting things to fall in place. I expected the variables to roll the Braves way… because for so long, they did! They had to have a lot of luck in those last few years of the streak to keep that going.
The 2008 season has jaded me a bit. lol I’m always going to be an optimists to those are typically pessimistic, because compared them, I am! But when I speak of actual expectations… not hypothetical scenarios, but expectations, I’m curious to hear what anyone thinks is pie in the sky about the way I’m looking at this team.
I’ve said all along that I agree with Dayn Perry’s take on this team… If the Braves get a little more offense (they did get some with G.Anderson, but still need Francoeur to bounce back) and a healthy bullpen… the Braves can win this division. If not, they can’t.
That’s my take. Nothing rosey or unrealistic about that.
Frank from KS
March 2nd, 2009
1:13 pm
Lowe: 16-8, 3.30 ERA
Jurrjens: 15-9, 3.54
Vazquez: 14-10, 3.80
Kawakami: 13-9, 3.85
Glavine: 10-8, 4.15
Kc….regarding your 12:15 post
I think Lowe will win 18-20 games and Kawakami and Glavine will both win 14. Other than that….those predictions look pretty good to me. Maybe JJ wins 16 or 17.
KC
March 2nd, 2009
1:18 pm
Frank from KS, thanks man, but those weren’t actually predictions. Just a hypothetical scenario in which the Braves might consider trading Vazquez at the deadline for a bat (if they’s pretty well certain that Hanson is 100% ready).
I don’t think the numbers you mentioned are farfetched, but I’ll wait until the end of the spring to go on record with my expectations. I still want to see how everyone looks this spring, particularly Kawakami and Glavine.
Lew
March 2nd, 2009
1:19 pm
KC-Debating assertions are fine. As for your “assertions” about pitching being traded at the deadline-I DID debate you-gave you many reasons why I disagreed. Making up numbers- Hypothetical season productions in such specificity as you delineated -and then discussing them-is, as I said, Useless.
Yes, you do have many people here disagreeing with you-for various reasons. Those who jump on you because of optimism are wrong. Those who disagree with you about specific views you hold have much validity behind them at times. And yes, You DO get all bent out of shape and take it personally when someone disagrees with you. You might not see it, but others certainly do.
beachcomber
March 2nd, 2009
1:20 pm
DOB – Pretty sure I spied you (talking with Wren) in Dunedin Saturday. Would have liked to said hello but you seemed pretty engrossed in your conversation. Perhaps next Wednesday in Clearwater.
N Nine (eta34)
March 2nd, 2009
1:21 pm
Said Reynolds: “My point to Ken was this: Atlanta is in a division — and I honestly believe this — where they’re not going to win for a few years. You’ll be long gone when the Braves get over the Mets and Phillies. They’re going to spend money to make sure they stay on top.
GRRRRRRRRRR what a dumb loser. What happened to this lost baseball analyst? I used to respect him on baseball tonight, now he’s lost that gig and has no clue about baseball. Seattle over ATL are you kidding me. No wonder espn dumped him
ease19
March 2nd, 2009
1:24 pm
KC – I have to agree too…Your predictions look pretty spot on…
toga party
March 2nd, 2009
1:25 pm
Looks like I’ll be able to watch the game on Wednesday (on YES) vs the Skanks. Can anyone tell me who’s scheduled to pitch Wed.?
RIP Skip
March 2nd, 2009
1:27 pm
I don’t know about you guys (and gals), but it sure hurts to know we wont’ be hearing “chopper to Chipper” or “right you are, Don Sutton” this year.
Having followed the Braves since 1976 from Ohio, Skip and Pete have been my window into the Braves. With TBS gone (I still get MLB Extra Innings), it has been different watching the Braves.
Anyone else thinking about their absence this season?
18 Wheels of Love
March 2nd, 2009
1:32 pm
Someone forward that Harold Reynold’s story to Tim Hudson. I think his email is step12@rage-a-holics.com
N Nine (eta34)
March 2nd, 2009
1:33 pm
it has been different watching the Braves RIP SKIP
Yes, It will be hard to adjust to changes especially after so many solid years. I liked the boog and simpson combo(for the most part) having Sutton will help also. Will always cherish the good days…..
Runnin
March 2nd, 2009
1:33 pm
Kawakami starting against the Yankees.
Jim
March 2nd, 2009
1:35 pm
The only significant righthanded hitters in the everyday lineup besides Chipper when facing a lefty are Yunel and JF. The top hitting prospects in the organization — Heyward, Schafer, Freeman, B. Jones are lefthanded hitters. Going forward, the Braves are going to have to add a (young) righthanded hitter or two to balance the rest of the lineup in 2011 and beyond when these prospects are ready to play at the major league level. The need will be particularly acute if JF does a Super Joe Charbeneau act. I think that by the trade deadline Frank Wren will know what direction the Braves will need to go in (present or future) and what impact the financial crisis will have upon the makeup of the 2010 team.
northbeach Scott
March 2nd, 2009
1:35 pm
And that foul ball was caught by a fan from Mason, OH. We’ll miss ‘em both every game. Just a like a part of my childhood died with Skip. Will always hold his sour, but lovable demeanor and commentary in my heart.
KC
March 2nd, 2009
1:37 pm
Lew, you and I have spoken on the phone once, and emailed a couple of times, but we haven’t gotten a chance to know each other very well. If you did know me, you would know that’s completely and totally untrue. I LOVE to debate, which by its very definition requires someone to disagree with you. I would challenge you to fine one occasion, just ONE where I have EVER been bent out of shape because someone disagreed with me.
I wasn’t bothered in the slightest when you disagreed with my assertion that Vazquez could be traded. Not in the slightest. Again, I enjoy it. I ONLY take exception to responses that are intended to dismiss the source, rather than the assertion or the argument. You’ll notice that I never once said “Lew, this just shows that you’re cantankerous and can never admit when you’re wrong”. I’ve never said anything like that to you. I just debate your assertions.
It appeared to me that YOU, not I, got irritated at a certain point in the debate, and rather than offering any further counterpoints, you just resorted to a short dismissive post (12:37).
But look…You’re a good guy, and this isn’t really that big a deal. I’m just at a point where I don’t usually take dismissive posts sitting down. Again, I enjoy the debate, but don’t appreciate people flippantly dismissing the source, rather than sticking to the debate itself. That’s all I’m saying.
KC
March 2nd, 2009
1:41 pm
No Braves game today?
since57
March 2nd, 2009
1:46 pm
For anyone that gives a rip, Hampton’s line today vs. Yankees: 2 IP 4R 4ER 6H 1BB 2K. No word if he his healthy or not or if all the pats on the back for making it thru 2 innings caused serious back injury.
N Nine (eta34)
March 2nd, 2009
1:47 pm
JOJO just got denied by COX. So if were “set” on the rotation and he can’t be “valued”in the pen then what is JOJO shooting for? Ya he kinda sucks but no chance given at all?
toga party
March 2nd, 2009
1:48 pm
Thanks Runnin. KK will probably only go 3 innings at this point I’m guessing. Can’t wait to get my first real look at him. Hopefully he’ll be mowing ‘em down.
Jim
March 2nd, 2009
1:48 pm
The Phillies may be in decent financial shape to remain competetive for an extended period of time. (They do have the problem of Ryan Howard becoming eligible to be a free agent next year.) But I question the financial viability of the Mets. The Wilpons and the team itself have invested some undiclosed amount of money with Bernie Madoff; the naming rights to the stadium could be in jeopardy; significant players like Wright and Reyes will be reaching free agency soon; and the Wall Street crowd is not so likely to be buying up those expensive boxes to entertain their clients — not on our dime! Except for their weak financial base, I would fear the Marlins in the near future more than the Mets.
reagan
March 2nd, 2009
1:48 pm
RIP Skip…………..Yea…I’m thinking the same thing. Skip and I used to find the other at the same haunts in the old days. ….couple of places at the prado and of course Johnny’s Hideaway (in Atlanta). Definitely a fun guy. First bumped into him at the 7th tee at Chastain Park……he was unloading on the Braves for letting Neikro go. Super nice guy and totally down to earth. Completely unaffected by any celebrity status. Pete was definitely in the role of …smoother and more professional. You could tell they really got a kick out of each other.
N Nine (eta34)
March 2nd, 2009
1:49 pm
since57,
I think we got lucky he turned down a bigger offer from us. We wouldn’t have either Kami or Glavine. In my books both are far better…….
Wayne in Utah
March 2nd, 2009
1:49 pm
N Nine Where is your Cox/JoJo comments coming from?? (JoJo believer here)
ease19
March 2nd, 2009
1:50 pm
KC – Off day, they are just an playing an intersquad game for JJ and the soon to be traded Vazquez to get some innings before Vazquez leaves and maintain there schedule…
Jim
March 2nd, 2009
1:51 pm
Where is this information about JJJ getting shelled today (there’s no game) and JoJo getting “denied” by Cox coming from?
toga party
March 2nd, 2009
1:54 pm
dogsbrekky
March 2nd, 2009
1:54 pm
Yes all well and good boys but I was at a meeting with Jeff Immelt (GE) in Jan and he told me straight to my face NO WAY would GE cut its dividend…. stock was at $15.60… now at $7.60 and dividend cut by 70%..
I will believe everything only when I see it
dogsbrekky
March 2nd, 2009
1:55 pm
sorry I meant to add in the JOHAN Sultana is gonna have major problems in 09′
N Nine (eta34)
March 2nd, 2009
1:56 pm
last night DOB said: And I asked Bobby about possibility of Reyes in bullpen, since Reyes said he just wants to try to win a roster spot, doesn’t care if it’s rotation. Bobby said his value is as a starter, and they like him there. In other words, he’s not being considered for a bullpen spot.
ease19
March 2nd, 2009
1:58 pm
David O’Brien
March 1st, 2009
9:42 pm
Ric Flair, I asked Chipper a few days ago and he said nothing new on that front….
By the way, TOM GLAVINE is scheduled to be in camp Wednesday….
And I asked Bobby about possibility of Reyes in bullpen, since Reyes said he just wants to try to win a roster spot, doesn’t care if it’s rotation. Bobby said his value is as a starter, and they like him there. In other words, he’s not being considered for a bullpen spot.
ease19
March 2nd, 2009
2:00 pm
I hope so toga they are supposed to be facing Heyward and the boys/men with the minor leaguers in the field…I would like to see how JJ bounces back.
KC
March 2nd, 2009
2:02 pm
ease19, LOL… no, he won’t be traded ’til July. =)
Actually, as I told Lew, I’m not at all convinced that he’ll be traded. While I think there’s a very real chance of that happening at the deadline, it’s probably just as likely that he won’t be going anywhere until next winter. But I decided to go out on a limb and say “Hanson will be in the rotation in July”.
KC
March 2nd, 2009
2:03 pm
Yeah, as couple of other folks here have said… it’s awfully tough to head into a season without Skip or Pete). Just not the same.
NCBravesFan
March 2nd, 2009
2:04 pm
KC – I doubt Vazquez would be traded unless 1) the economy is a lot better in July than it is now and/or 2) the Braves are willing to swallow part of his contract in the deal. In this economy, his compensation doesn’t represent very good value for a #3 / #4 starter for an acquiring team.
Epinephrine
March 2nd, 2009
2:05 pm
Jim, there was an intersquad game with Jurrjens and Vasquez going against Heyward, Freeman, Schafer, etc. You can read about it on Bowman’s blog. Apparently Heyward owned JJJ.
N Nine (eta34)
March 2nd, 2009
2:08 pm
ummm_ carroll where are you?
Robert
March 2nd, 2009
2:10 pm
where is his blog
Robert
March 2nd, 2009
2:11 pm
can you link Bowman’s blog
Robert
March 2nd, 2009
2:12 pm
is anyone concerned about Jurrjens, he pitched a lot of innings last year. At least a lot for him
Anders
March 2nd, 2009
2:13 pm
Jim-
As soons as the government pulls the naming rights deal from Wilpon I fully expect they’ll do the same to all the Nascar teams benefitting from GM and the like who also showed up with their hat in hand. Watch what affect that has on the Nascar circuit. You see, if we’re going to let the government get into the business of marketing rights for any of these groups who get bailouts I say we go all in. Should Delta or Home Depot shows up for their money I hope you have the same vindictiveness in your heart.
As for the “Wall Street” crowd buying the expensive seats for their clients – you certainly can’t be naive enough to think they only own seats at the NY parks? I would guess that all the major banks, brokerage firms etc have seats at almost every major city venue in the U.S. While many of these banks, brokerage firms and insurance type companies do their business on Wall Street many are not even based there. The fact that so many think the cause of this economical turmoil happened soley on the 8 miles of Manhattan is ridiculous.
Yes, if you want to talk about the unfair bonuses some of these guys got ok they may have their office here, but focusing soley on that is just following the media’s easy reading sensationalism that feeds the masses.
What we’re experiencing is an all encompassing nationwide economic meltdown driven by the overleveraged housing market that everyone from the Government, banks, brokerage firms, Wall Street and yes Joe consumer willingly participated in. We all have some skin in this. Therefore, if you think that the impacts of this will soley affect the Mets and Yanks you have your head in the sand. If anything the Mets and Yanks are in a better position to handle it than most having various revenue streams etc..
Said differently – be careful what you wish for.
matt
March 2nd, 2009
2:14 pm
DOB- what’s the latest with Gorkys?? I thought I remember hearing that he was supposedly really good or had great potential. Is this still the case? Just haven’t heard anything. Also, at one time Jon Mark Owings was thought pretty highly of. Do you know anything about his situation? He’s a local boy from the Forsyth/Gainseville area.
Sandlot
March 2nd, 2009
2:15 pm
Seems I’ve read that Jurrjens has been working on some strength training and conditioning specifically to help him not tire out late in the season. I hope that pays off for him.
Bill M.
March 2nd, 2009
2:15 pm
Jim
The Phillies won’t have to worry about Ryan Howard. He signed for 2 or 3 years. Can’t remember the number of years.
N Nine (eta34)
March 2nd, 2009
2:15 pm
robert: http://markbowman.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/03/cox_places_heyward_and_freeman.html
11:47am comment
Robert
March 2nd, 2009
2:16 pm
that doesn’t say anything about today’s intersquad game
KC
March 2nd, 2009
2:17 pm
NCBravesFan, well… I guess I have a little different take on Vazquez than you do.
Multiple scouts have stated an expectation that Vazquez will have nice season in Atlanta (similar to the 15-8, 3.74 ERA he produced the year before last in CHI). They cite the fact that he will be leaving the AL (and the DH), will be trading a hitters paradise for a pitchers part, and overall comfort… there is a feeling that he’ll be more at home in the NL, and will respond much better to Bobby Cox than Ozzie Guillen, whose management style isn’t for everyone.
I tend to agree with that take. Frankly, I’ll be surprised if his ERA isn’t under 4.00. And if he does look anything like he did in 2007 (and his last several years in Montreal), there will be plenty of teams that will want him.
As for the economy being a consideration… post-season play generates revenue. So if a team thinks he can help them make the playoffs, it makes sense. Also, if he’s traded at the deadline, a team would only be responsible for less then 4 million dollars of his 2009 salary at that point. And there are still going to be teams willing to take on a little payroll at the deadline in order to win.
And the hypothetical scenario (that everyone is mistaking for a prediction) in which I suggested he could be traded… is one that would have him pitching more like a #2 or a strong #3, similar to his 2007 performance. And of course, in that scenario, the Braves wouldn’t even consider trading him unless everyone else in the rotation were healthy and sharp, and Hanson were 100% ready.
I don’t know that Vazquez will pitch that well, but the stars seem to be aligned for him to have a nice season in ATL.
dogsbrekky
March 2nd, 2009
2:19 pm
Where is the news of today’s workouts/tryouts coming from please
I also wouldnt worry about pitcher’s getting lit up as they are being told to work a lot of fastballs, not exactly game conditions..
Jim
March 2nd, 2009
2:21 pm
Lighten up! An intrasquad game is glorified batting practice — a chance to work on secondary pitches. If JJJ or anyone else is struggling at the end of March, then there is cause for concern.
KC
March 2nd, 2009
2:21 pm
Robert, actually, Jurrjens pitched 140+ innings several times at the minor league level. So his 188 innings last year represented a jump of about 40-45 innings.
Nearly every big league pitcher has to make a 40+ inning jump at some point, whether at the minor league level, or at the big league level.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com is a great site for seeing both minor and Major League stats (including innings pitched). If you just start looking up established big league starters at random to see what their largest innings leaps were early on… I think you’re fears will be put to ease.
DCBrave
March 2nd, 2009
2:23 pm
came to check what DOB has to say on a boring day, and not much except the spilled wheat pieces, and the agree/disagree, real/hypothetical, personal/nonpersonal nonesense. It’s boring day after all. Will go to check what Manny has to say or not to say.
THE BEAR Illegitimi non carborundum
March 2nd, 2009
2:23 pm
Jim,
The Phillies don’t have a problem with Howard. Here is a quote from a press release.
“Phillies agreed to terms with first baseman Ryan Howard on a three-year, $54 million contract.”
———–
Epinephrine
March 2nd, 2009
2:28 pm
Robert, read the comments. There are a few posts on the intersquad stuff today. I’d think given that we are all posting on a blog-this blog in particular-the people here could ferret out that info…
THE BEAR Illegitimi non carborundum
March 2nd, 2009
2:29 pm
For some reason I am optmistic about Frenchy. I was looking for an improvement in K’s and he is showing us that. Lowering K’s and raising BB’s are the two things I am most interested in at this point. If he does those he will also be putting the bat on the ball and when he does that good things will happen. Frenchy will be just fine if he can control the K’s and BB’s.
DWW
March 2nd, 2009
2:29 pm
KC
What contender is going to want to give up a power outfield bat for a number 3 starter at the deadline?
Anders
March 2nd, 2009
2:31 pm
Jim,
BTW- David Wright is signed through 2012 with a club option for 2013. Reyes is signed through 2010 with a club option for 2011.
That gives them 3 years at worst before they have to address either player you mentioned.
THE BEAR Illegitimi non carborundum
March 2nd, 2009
2:34 pm
I can see what KC is talking about. It just may be possible for a team to have four outfielders better than our worst Outfielder. And that team may well be in terrible need for a starter. At the same time Atlanta could find itself with six reliable (good) starters and in terrible shape for a hitting outfielder who is at least better than our weakest link. If those two things should come together then it is highly possible for a trade to be made.
Who is a possibility for such a trade? Well, right off the bat I can see such a possibility come to fruition with the Cardinals.
N Nine (eta34)
March 2nd, 2009
2:35 pm
DWW, im sure it wouldn’t be a one for one swap. We are STOCKED with young kids(best in N.L.) If the right guy hits the market, you never know…
I agree with KC. If we are doing well and only a power hitter away from reaching post season, I think its possible. kinda like TEX in 07.
DCBrave
March 2nd, 2009
2:35 pm
Robert asked: “is anyone concerned about Jurrjens, he pitched a lot of innings last year. At least a lot for him.”
Robert, I cringed when I saw that. I couldn’t help but recalling the outstanding rookie years of the likes of HRimerez, KDavies, CJames, and then their terrible sophomore years. Then we have Moylan who’s got a great rookie year and then a TJ for the second. One just hope JJ is different.
Steve from OH
March 2nd, 2009
2:38 pm
Great Interview by Squawking Baseball with John Coppolella, Braves director of baseball administration. A must-read.
Jim
March 2nd, 2009
2:39 pm
Anders, I don’t follow NASCAR, but I think that sponsorship money from the auto companies is down. I don’t know if the government will make a bank in which they are now the largest shareholder give up naming rights to the new stadium, but the schedule of payments could be deferred. CitiCorp has become the poster child for the “zombie” bank and is therefore a special case. You are right about the the effect of the recession (depression) around the league, but the Mets and, in particular, the Yankees are somewhat more vulnerable in that they are moving into new stadia with much higher per seat prices. The prices at Yankee Stadium are especially outrageous and can only be sustained by willing corporate buyers. I am hoping that they do take a big financial hit that may break this cycle of extravagance that has effectively priced the average fan out of the ball park.
KC
March 2nd, 2009
2:41 pm
DWW, “What contender is going to want to give up a power outfield bat for a number 3 starter at the deadline?”
No one.
But why are we assuming that Vazquez will be a #3 starter (in terms of performance)?
I agree that his 2008 numbers are very representative of a #3 starter.
But let’s not forget that in 2007, he went 15-8, with a 3.73 ERA. And that was in a BIG time hitter’s park, with the DH. And that was very much in line with what he always did in Montreal before moving to the AL. So we know he’s capable of more than a typical #3 guy. And I think those numbers are more representative of a strong #2 starter than a #3. Especially when you factor in 200 innings and 200 strikeouts.
I in NO WAY think it’s a given that he’ll produce at that level in Atlanta. But again, multiple scouts have said they expect something more in line with his 2007/Montreal performance (for reasons I won’t list again).
But even if he does pitch like a #3 starter, and not like a strong #2… there are always teams out there at the deadline desperate for a quality starter, even it’s just a middle-of-rotation guy. So even if Vazquez has, say… a 4.50 ERA at the deadline, as long as he’s giving innings and quality starts, there will be interest. And packaging him with a (non-core) prospect or two would likely be enough to net a production bat with some pop.
But if he’s pitching as he did in ‘07, you could deal him straight up.
dogsbrekky
March 2nd, 2009
2:41 pm
“The Lucky Ones” is a wonderful movie currently on Time Warner Cable channel 1000 under Indies, well worth the $5.99 if anyone is inclined
Has Tim “Shawshank” Robbins and a nice young lady (name ??) about returning servicemen travelling across US to Vegas… well done flick
JOE
March 2nd, 2009
2:42 pm
THANK YOU DWW
KC
March 2nd, 2009
2:43 pm
meant to say… “a productive bat”.
Danga
March 2nd, 2009
2:44 pm
Hmmm…I just saw Tim “Shawshank” Robbins in Mystic River. Finally got around to seeing that one. Good movie, but not the kind that makes you feel all warm and fuzzy inside. I’ve always enjoyed Mr. Robbins though.
THE BEAR Illegitimi non carborundum
March 2nd, 2009
2:44 pm
Why spend so much worrying time over Jurrjens? The boy has done BETTER every year he has been in baseball. There is no reason I can see for him to go backward this year. He was the real deal last year and he is the real deal this year. If he proves he is not then we will be concerned for him and his future. Until then we enjoy his career with him.
I am an ole dude and I cannot find room (or time) for worrying about things that are not likely to happen. If you think positively you will live a happier life. To worry about things over which you have no control is an exercise in utter futility.
I am going to enjoy 2009 while you worriers spend your time crying about someone splitting a fingernail.
Fill your glasses half full and join those of us who are enjoying the art of living.
DCBrave
March 2nd, 2009
2:45 pm
THE BEAR Illegitimi non carborundum-
The reason why Frechy hit into that many DPs last season is not because of those Ks. I really did not mind that much of his Ks last year, which just got himself out after all, but I was infuriated with the number of DPs he hit into, which removes somebody else who worked so hard to get on base.
Besides, we cannot lower our standard that much given that the team’s success realies on him a great deal. Merely not striking out doesn’t do the job. What’s what I require my little league son to do: just don’t strike out.
Having said that, I’ve not given Frechy up just yet. However, he does need to turn it around quick. Not just not to strike out but to get hits, big or small, just hits.
KC
March 2nd, 2009
2:48 pm
DWW, also, I would pose this question…
Would the package the Braves gave for Vazquez be enough – or almost enough – to net a productive bat?
I think it would. So if a team (the Braves) were willing to give up a quality package for Vazquez, that tells you what his trade value is. And that value will likely be at least as high at the deadline. His value will almost certainly enough to serve as the centerpiece of a deal for a hitter, if it can’t be done straight up.
dogsbrekky
March 2nd, 2009
2:50 pm
DCBrave – there is actually a theory on one of the stat sites which says Frenchy is probably better off BEING LESS PATIENT ala Vlad, just hack away at any thing he wants………. alas I am not in agreement but the argument is there that his best work came when he would just swing like a rusty door in a storm
James is Red
March 2nd, 2009
2:51 pm
SI.com has a good article on the Braves. But … it is yet another media outlet saying that the Braves’ chances all ride on how well Frenchy can bounce back. The guy is concentrating on a lot of stuff this spring with his new batting stance. I hope he can block it all out and focus on his mechanics and nothing else.
Mike S
March 2nd, 2009
2:55 pm
Waiting for the obligatory “I love Robbins acting, but can’t stand his political views” comment…
dogsbrekky
March 2nd, 2009
3:00 pm
Mike S – Susan Sarandon has a nice bod for an old sheila and Tim Robbins and her !@#$%%^^*))(*&^% $!)_)@_) poli!@#$
THE BEAR Illegitimi non carborundum
March 2nd, 2009
3:01 pm
DCBrave, you have me confused. You wrote these things.
“The reason why Frechy hit into that many DPs last season is not because of those Ks. I really did not mind that much of his Ks last year, which just got himself out after all, but I was infuriated with the number of DPs he hit into, which removes somebody else who worked so hard to get on base.”
————-
Then you wrote this.
Merely not striking out doesn’t do the job. What’s what I require my little league son to do: just don’t strike out.”
————–
If striking out doesn’t bother you so much with Frenchy why does it bother you so much with your son? I am confused.
What I said was that K’s and BB’s are what bothers most of us about Frenchy. If he can cut down on K’s and raise his walks he will have improved right there. I also said that when he is putting the wood on the ball good things happen. And there are going to be bad things also at, least 70% of the time. Some of them will be DP’s. You can’t hit into a DP or get a single or a double or a HR if you are not hitting the ball. I’d much rather go with the bat on the ball than anything else I can think of…other than a walk.
KC
March 2nd, 2009
3:01 pm
James is Red, I agree with that assessment. It does ride on Frenchy.
I think there’s a chance that the Braves could hang around long enough to get a deal done at the deadline for a bat (to replace Frenchy, if necessary)… but their chances will certainly be better if Francoeur can return to 2007 form.
PWHjort
March 2nd, 2009
3:01 pm
Vazquez is coming from a crackhead manager, terrible defense, hitters park, and AL team, to a very supportive manager, very talented defense, pitchers park, and NL team. Every one of those indicators points towards him having a better year. He’s going to rake in the NL.
cvbraves
March 2nd, 2009
3:02 pm
“Vazquez allowed one hit over three scoreless innings and Jurrjens allowed two runs on four hits in his three innings.” Bowman’s comment regarding todays intra-squad game.
DCBrave
March 2nd, 2009
3:02 pm
dogsbrekky-
With Frechy, no theory worked last year. He listened to everybody and tried everything: less patience, more patience, open up, squeez in, you name it. In the end, .239 and .294 are what he got.
When Chipper struggled before, he would go back to his dad and had things figured out. When Mac’s slumping, he did the same thing. Poor Frechy has to figure things out himself. If he’s ever gonna turn this thing around this season, he has to rely on his own baseball intelligence.
KC
March 2nd, 2009
3:03 pm
Mike S, I can’t stand that fact that actors/entertainers think everyone needs to hear all about their political views (whatever they are). It’s kind of arrogant. Celebrities often act as though their opinion should carry more weight than the average American.
THE BEAR Illegitimi non carborundum
March 2nd, 2009
3:05 pm
PWHjort
I agree with you on Vasquez. I have this hunch that he is so happy to be out from under Ozzie that he is really going to bust his butt for Bobby. Expect him to have a great year in 09.
DWW
March 2nd, 2009
3:05 pm
KC
It just doesn’t seem likely that a contending team will want to give up a bat in the middle of the season unless they had too many producing outfielders; in this case where do we put that bat in the line up? Are we benching JF or GA, or are we hoping this power bat plays cf? My question was intended to spark another “hypothetical situation” in which a team would have a power hitting outfielder that fit our needs. I just dont see how all this could possible come together.
Carroll Rogers
March 2nd, 2009
3:06 pm
OK, here goes…..My big test to see if this shows up in gray! This is my first foray into WordPress, just catching up to where DOB was a couple of weeks ago…
I’m in the Atlanta airport at the moment, about to get on a plane, but I got an update on today’s simulated game for ya from the Braves PR. Javier Vazquez went three innings, allowed one hit, one walk and three strikeouts. Of his 39 pitches, 27 were strikes. By all accounts, he was sharp. Now he heads off to pitch for Puerto Rico in the WBC, supposed to start for them on Saturday.
Jair Jurrjens wasn’t quite as sharp and he had Jason Heyward to thank. Heyward went deep on him, and apparently there was nothing cheap about it. He also doubled off Jurrjens but there was a little cheap about that – a minor league outfielder misplayed the ball, but they had to rule it a double. JJ’s line: three innings, four hits, two runs, no walks or strikeouts. 43 pitches, 25 strikes.
Next time you hear from me I’ll be in Florida. Good to be back on the beat for a little bit here.
Jim
March 2nd, 2009
3:08 pm
The most worrisome thing about JF last year was that he rarely drove the ball when he didn’t strike out. Even many of his hits were bloops and dribblers.
DCBrave
March 2nd, 2009
3:09 pm
THE BEAR Illegitimi non carborundum-
You must be kidding me. You’re well aware that one is for a MJ big boy whose success is relied upon by his team, and one is a little league starter. Are you gonna apply the same standard? If you’re gonna be satisfied with what Frenchy could do what a little leaguer does, then don’t feel bad at all with Frechy: He can do a lot of little league things.
THE BEAR Illegitimi non carborundum
March 2nd, 2009
3:09 pm
Have fun Carroll and thanks for the update. Heyward is going to “take a lot of good pitchers deep” before his career is over.
Good news about Vasquez.
DWW
March 2nd, 2009
3:10 pm
KC
Thats what I love about Tiger Woods, he gets critisized alot for not voicing his politcal opionions, but i think he should be comended for it. People need to start thinking for themselves instead of always looking for the next person to follow.
THE BEAR Illegitimi non carborundum
March 2nd, 2009
3:11 pm
DCBrave,
I am not kidding you at all. The effect of a K or a DP is exactly the same whether it is a little league, high school or pro game. Makes no difference. Or maybe you can show us the difference.