G. Anderson: New Brave “quiet, underrated”

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N8

February 24th, 2009
8:17 pm

“The corresponding roster move for Garret Anderson is the Tim Hudson 60-day DL thing. DOB</strong

Good god man. I hope for your safety that that “move” is the announced move, and you’re not speculating about that move. If Hudson got pizzed before, I can’t imagine how mad he would be the one being speculated about. :-)

35YearBravesFan

February 24th, 2009
8:19 pm

This was a good blog, DOB. Everything I am reading about GA on the web echoes what you and Hoss and Kotch are saying. I am happy with the team we have now. Bring on the days of summer!!!

GO BRAVES!

KC

February 24th, 2009
8:20 pm

Andrew, Chipper worked withe Andruw and Frenchy all winter, and I’m going to trust him here. He knows his stuff, and he’s brutally honest. The fact that Chipper has raved about Francoeur, makes me optimistic that he’ll bounce back. But Chipper had nothing good to say about Andruw. He said that AJ’s still trying to pull everything. Translation: still hasn’t learned his lesson.

I’ll be very surprised if AJ bounces back this year.

35YearBravesFan

February 24th, 2009
8:20 pm

And what IS the deal with Smoltz trashing the Braves in interviews??? I thought he had more class than that. Wrong again I guess.

Dadgum

February 24th, 2009
8:22 pm

Blair….no, you see that when you have enough talent in LF to play the position and you bring a veteran in then it is on the club to prove they made the right move. Frankly we were fine before the move as many Braves players will attest. Unfortunately, we are going to have to wait until about all-star break to determine if Anderson was the right move. If he is batting about .260 with say 5-6 homers then I win. If he is batting close to .300 with say 10 homers then you win. Right now I am winning and it is up to Anderson to prove me wrong. My game, my rules.

Oh yeah, the same goes for Glavine. He should not be on the team. We have solid talent and plenty of it in teh #5 slot. I don’t by this BS about his experience helping the younger guys. What the hell do we pay McDowell for anyway.

Maybe I am going against the grain but I would not have signed either Glavine or Anderson. We just spent about 4 mil + on two players neither of whom will get us to where we need to be. Again my opinion but let’s check the scorecard at the break. 5 will get you 10 that Glavine is either retired or injured. Nevertheless, I will be fine if I am wrong but that’s my story and I am sticking to it. No gray area.

Rock on……

TennesseePaul

February 24th, 2009
8:28 pm

I still disagree. I think as far as the rookie campaigns go, Tim put a more impressive season than Jurrjens whose only advantage was in ERA. Second half stats improved for Tim and declined for Jurrjens. I didn’t post K/9, but in that area Tim out did Jurrjens. I didn’t list H/9 but Tim out did Jurrjens. I didn’t go into wins as I don’t think they tell as much about a pitcher as other stats but Tim had a better winning percentage than Jair. Tim came up later than Jair, so his major league total won’t equally compare, however he pitched about as many innings in total that season as Jair, only his first months were spent in AAA producing a 0.29 ERA. And Tim averaged slightly more innings per start than Jair (very slight, but still a notch in his column over Jair). Jair had a great season for a rookie pitcher. I’m glad he did it as a Brave. But to compare him to Lincecum just isn’t fair to Jair. It sets an extremely high expectation level.

Jeff R

February 24th, 2009
8:28 pm

Garret Anderson is a solid pick up. At this stage of his career, I don’t think he’s a 150 games starter. Diaz should get more than his share of playing time in LF.

If Hanson starts at Gwinnett and pitches effectively, what does a call up to Atlanta mean? Is Cox going to use him as a middle innings reliever and spot starter? Doubtful. My guess is that Glavine gets bumped in favor of Hanson. After all, Glavine’s on the way out; Hanson’s on the way up.

Eric from MO

February 24th, 2009
8:29 pm

Chipperfan do you really want to use Verlander as an example that it doesnt hurt to jump your innings? He just lost 17 games.

Eric from MO

February 24th, 2009
8:32 pm

Dadgum we had one of the worse pitching staffs last year and the worse outfield. How do you figure we were fine in both of those?

mbatl

February 24th, 2009
8:34 pm

Jair, I served with Tim Lincecum: I knew Tim Lincecum; Tim Lincecum was a friend of mine. Jair, you’re no Tim Lincecum.

Kieran(Long Island Braves fan)

February 24th, 2009
8:34 pm

Good find on that Escobar article Random. Paul Sheehan is hard to take seriously after reading that one.

KC

February 24th, 2009
8:37 pm

TennesseePaul, so… other than the fact that Lincecum allowed significantly more runners to score than Jurrjens, Lincecum had a better rookie season?

Again, 151 innings into the season, Jurrjens had a 3.15 ERA. Through an almost identical number of innings in his rookie season, Lincecum had a 4.00 ERA. Jurrjens also won 3 more games over those innings (for a 90 loss team) than Lincecum.

Sorry man. Jurrjens had the better rookie season of the two.

Again, I’m not saying that jurrjens will ever be as good as Lincecum is now. But rookie seasons? Advantage Jurrjens.

Danga

February 24th, 2009
8:38 pm

Giants lost 90 as well.

KC

February 24th, 2009
8:39 pm

mbatl, no one said Jurrjens was Lincecum. Jurrjens is not yet as good as Lincecum, and it’s not likely that he ever will be. Lincecum is an extraordinary talent.

But Jurrjens showed enough last year to earn a lot more respect than he’s getting. He does have a chance to be a #1 starter.

Eric from MO

February 24th, 2009
8:40 pm

TennesseePaul do you think you are the only one who looks at the stats. Even with Tim’s minor numbers his rookie season he still threw less innings. 188 to 177 Jair’s favor. Now its not much but if your going to give him a slight edge in innings per start than you have to do it in total innings and how do you not count wins(I dont either) but you do count winning %. Its basically the same thing. If your not getting the win then its a loss or no decision. Not like either plays on a good team.

Josh

February 24th, 2009
8:47 pm

Stamper, Kelly Johnson hits better against lefties and against righties so I’m not sure of your reasoning to put Prado in in that situation. Also, im not sure Infante has the flyball judgment and range to play centerfield.

KC

February 24th, 2009
8:47 pm

Eric from MO, Verlander is really irrelevant, as is the innings argument with Jurrjens.

Given that Jurrjens pitched 140+ innings several times, the whole innings argument is overblown. Again, most pitchers have to make a 40 inning jump at some point in their careers, be it at the minor league level, or the ML level. Check out thebaseallcube.com and just start looking up random starters who have lasted in the “bigs”.

I’m not saying you’re arguing that point… but I just wanted to throw that out there.

KC

February 24th, 2009
8:49 pm

Eric from MO, just wanted to further clarify that I was not really directing the whole innings pitched argument at you. More of a general thing.

Are there any takes for the Jurrjens bet? If anyone thinks he’s going to take a step back, email me at kccjr1@gmail.com, and we’ll lay out the terms.

mikey

February 24th, 2009
8:50 pm

Don’t remember who Andruw hit the homer off of, to lazy to look it up, but i heard he actually hit it to right field

Tomas

February 24th, 2009
8:51 pm

I just saw the WBC rosters. The Dominican Republic will not have Albert Pujols, Vladimiir Guerrero, Aramis Ramirez, Manny Ramirez, Francisco Liriano, Jose Valverde, Francisco Cordero, Fausto Carmona, and Ervin Santana. Is there some kind of complot against players who are not from the USA, and teams don’t let them participate?

KC

February 24th, 2009
8:52 pm

TennesseePaul, forgot to mention… it’s not at all unusual for a big strikeout pitcher to have a better H/9 ratio than a ground-ball, pitch-to-contact guy. In fact that’s normally the case. The power guy has the advantage that not as many hitters hit their way on. Ground-ball guys have the advantage of double-plays, and in Jurrjens case… a low walk total.

Tomas

February 24th, 2009
8:56 pm

Andruw hit a double of Kevin Millwood, and a homer against Luis Mendoza with 3 RBI’s in the intrasquad game.

bigchiefrg

February 24th, 2009
8:56 pm

so how long would we have to wait to bring hanson up to avoid or delay the super 2 status or 3 yr arbitration and what are the rules for spot starts? i know it is like 86 days but how does that equate calendar wise?

NO MORE BOBBY

February 24th, 2009
8:57 pm

Nothing against the new guy (guys) but why do we only sign older free agents?

TennesseePaul

February 24th, 2009
9:01 pm

KC: so… other than the fact that Lincecum allowed significantly more runners to score than Jurrjens

Tim allowed 70 runners to score, Jair allowed 87 (that’s total runners)
Tim allowed 65 earned runners to score, Jair allowed 77.

Chuck James had a sub 4.00 ERA in his rookie campaign. Guess it was better than Tim as well. Perhaps the advantage is based on the city name on the jersey more than anything.

You haven’t convienced me that Jair had the better rookie season. I can see that you will not waiver even when presented with Tim’s better WHIP, H/9, K/9, K/IP, IP/GS, K/BB, better second half, better winning percentage and fewer “runners allowed to score”, so I’ll just leave it at that. I disagree with you.

Danga

February 24th, 2009
9:02 pm

No More Bobby…Because young guys hit the market less often and generally cost a lot more money.

6-4-3

February 24th, 2009
9:04 pm

Enter your comments here

Lew

February 24th, 2009
9:05 pm

No More Bobby-I don’t know Dude, what do you think? Maybe because Frank Wren has stock in a Retirement Home?

TennesseePaul

February 24th, 2009
9:06 pm

Eric: I didn’t say Tim had more innings than Jair. And I agreed, I don’t count wins, but if people are going to point to them, then I’ll join in pointing with my surgically repaired pointer finger… and since Tim came up later in the season, winning percentage is about the only “justifiable” method of juxtaposing a basically irrelavent stat for measuring a single man.

Lew

February 24th, 2009
9:07 pm

Opened up the local sports page this evening and there was a story about how the Braves already have their new Smoltz-Tommy Hanson. You know The Kid’s attracting attention when he hits the Central Vermont newspapers..

6-4-3

February 24th, 2009
9:07 pm

I know nobody probably cares anymore, but is there even a slight possiblity we bring Ohman back. I mean c’mon. He can probably be had for about a million. I know middle relief is not a sure thing from year to year, but he was very good last year, and he could get both lefties and righties out.

They must have soured on his bad final month when he tired. Maybe they think Bobby Cox wore him out and it would probably carry over to this year. Just a thought. Otherwise it just doesn’t make much sense to me.

ncscoots

February 24th, 2009
9:07 pm

KC, you’ll have JJJ in my Ryan Freel box, if you keep this up. Taking a step back in the second year has happened to enough players to make the the thought nearly a cliche, so it’s whistling past the graveyard to think it won’t-can’t-couldn’t-possibly happen to Jurrjens. I know that flies in the face of a 17-win season prediction from you, but still…LOL.

On another note, I’m shocked at the number of folks who are willing to hit Garret Anderson high in the order. A sub-.340 OBP and declining power do not a 3 (or 4) hitter make. The guy is an OF with a sub-.800 OPS, and that says to me “bottom third”. It wouldn’t surprise me to see KJ and Escobar, for instance, both have a higher OPS than Garret. Middle of the order is no place for this guy, on this team.

TennesseePaul

February 24th, 2009
9:12 pm

I’m shocked at the number of folks who are willing to hit Garret Anderson high in the order

Agreed. I like his consistency, but he seems more suited to the lower end of the order these days. This team is loaded with 7-hole, doubles hitters. But as a man once said, you don’t take the field with the team you want, you take the field with the team you have… and this team includes Bobby who will most likely slide Garret in to the fourth spot… unless Francoeur really comes on strong.

Yars

February 24th, 2009
9:16 pm

If Josh Anderson wins the CF job, I would assume Bobby will hit him leadoff..2. Yunel 3. KJ 4. Chipper 5. McCann 6. Frenchy 7. G. Anderson 8. Kotchman.

Blair

February 24th, 2009
9:20 pm

Who do we currently have that has proven anything in left field? I totally agree with bringing a veteran who can provide more certainty in the outfield. It’s pretty simple logic. Your argument stinks, sorry. Your not winning, and as far as I can tell, you’re not having an argument. I can pretty much crush your stance by pointing to the numbers. What exactly in Anderson’s career would lead you to think he would hit .260 with five homers? The theory of his acquisition is plainly stated above. It is the correct move, in light of the circumstances. You can argue with numbers, but that just means you’re in denial. Again, show me the numbers and the proof that there were better options in house? If there was, why did the Braves sign Anderson? And if they’re wrong, why aren’t you on the payroll? (Rhetorical, I know why)

I have more questions about Glavine then I do Anderson. If he provides stability on the back end, it will be a good pickup. If he gets rocked, and then bows out with an injury…we’ll know…

For the record, you’re dead wrong about Prado as well. There is no way he is better or has more upside then Kelly Johnson at second. I can play the “no gray” area thing well. If you present a boorish, extreme, and poorly articulated argument, chances are, you’ll get another one in return (except for the poor articulation).

TennesseePaul

February 24th, 2009
9:21 pm

I’d like to see Josh make the team. He’s done fairly well in his time up in the majors. It shouldn’t hurt Jordan to start at AAA. If things don’t work out, Jordan can always be called up…

ncscoots

February 24th, 2009
9:22 pm

I think there might be some confusion on arb status, with all the posts asking that Hanson be kept on the farm for “business reasons”. Major league service is based on the number of days on the 25-man, and the number of service days in a major league season (I forget the exact number under the current agreement, 175 or so).

The idea about keeping a player off the 25-man for a certain length of time has to do with the service days credit a player receives if he is on the roster a certain number of days during the current season. Hanson, for example, could start the season in Atlanta and be sent down later for an extended period, giving the same effect as if he were in Gwinnett at the beginning of the season and called up after June 15.

And Super Two status is determined by the top 17 per cent of service time by two-year players in the year under discussion, so keeping a player on the farm until a certain date may or may not produce Super Two status. All depends on the service time of his two-year peers. Players may have appeared in more than two ML seasons and yet accumulate less than three years service time prior to an arbitration period, creating a higher threshold for Super Two status.

KC

February 24th, 2009
9:35 pm

ncscoots, as I said… it’s not merely my gut feeling or general observation that he “sophomore slump” (as it pertains to starting pitchers) is a myth. I put a fair amount of study into it for a blog piece I wrote at the time.

There are many counter-factual pithy terms and sayings that passed from one generation to the next, thanks to the power of alliteration or an otherwise catchy title. I’ve come to believe that he “sophomore slump” (again, as it pertains to starters) is one of them. If you want to put a little work into that and provide some evidence to refute that… I’m open minded. But I’m basing my view on facts. Please save the smartass retorts unless you have something substantive to offer.

And you’re twisting my words. I never said IT COULDN’T HAPPEN… that Jurrjens couldn’t POSSIBLY take a step back. What I said was that he is much more likely to take a step forward than a step back.

Henaege

February 24th, 2009
9:36 pm

Bubdylan – Don’t know if anyone answered yet but I think you’re looking for Fibonacci.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fibonacci_number

ncscoots

February 24th, 2009
9:42 pm

TennPaul, you’re right that Bobby can make you go “whuh?” with some of his lineups, but, for the most part, he’s fairly old school in that regard, don’t you think? I mean, he knows Anderson hit 6 for most of last year and I can’t see Bobby slotting Anderson ahead of McCann, except in a senior moment.

But, you’re also right in that you can’t hit ‘em all at 7, so someone (at least one) is going to be hitting out of position, LOL.

KC

February 24th, 2009
9:49 pm

TennesseePaul, I was also looking at what the two pitchers did in about 150 innings of work in their rookie seasons. That was a gap of nearly a full run. But overall, 3.68 to 4.00 is a noteworthy gap. Jurrjens’ record was also substantially better than Lincecum’s rookie record.

As for Chuck James… he only made 18 starts in his rookie season. I suspect that had he started 30+, that ERA would not have held. But Chuck, being a 2 pitch pitcher really is someone that MANY people were concerned about long-term. There was a lot of optimism surrounding him, but many were concerned that hitters would make adjustments, and he wouldn’t be able to survive on 2 pitches. His case is vastly different from either Jurrjens or Lincecum.

But this is really something of a bunny trail for me. My statement that “Jurrjens had a better rookie season” was an aside. Even we just said “his rookie season was comparable to those of Lincecum and Hamels… my point would still stand.

I was using those other two as a comparison to drive home how good Jurrjens was last year. My point was that, given what he did in his rookie season… it seems foolish to dismiss him as so many seem to be doing.

And I just want to reiterate once more, because I know that a year from now someone is going to say “Yeah, KC said Jurrjens was just as good as Lincecum”… I want to be clear that I am NOT saying that!!!

Lincecum is a better pitcher than Jurrjens right now, and while not inconceivable, it is definitely unlikely that Jurrjens will ever be as good as Lincecum. But I do believe that Jurrjens has a strong chance to establish himself as a #1 starter. And if he turns out to be anything less than a solid #2 starter at the big league level… I’ll be shocked.

ncscoots

February 24th, 2009
9:49 pm

Please save the smartass retorts unless you have something substantive to offer.

Thanks, but I believe I’ll continue to retort, in whatever descriptive terms such posts may merit. And as for “sunstantive” comments, asking fo that might eliminate some our more colorful posts by bloggers with two-initial monikers. Let’s forgo that requirement, shall we?

KC

February 24th, 2009
9:57 pm

ncsoots, let me be clear that in general, I think your posts are well reasoned and intelligent. But dismissing my assertion, which was based on a fair amount of research, in a fairly snide manner, just kind of rubbed me the wrong way.

And, I’m sure you’re just firing a shot back across my bow… but I believe I put a fair amount of thought into my opinions before I form them, and certainly before I voice them. I’m not one of those that fires half-ass shots at everyone. But then, you were probably talking about another blogger with two initials!

Oh, and as for my request that you save the smartass retorts… you’ll notice that I did say “please”. lol

TennesseePaul

February 24th, 2009
10:01 pm

KC: My point was that, given what he did in his rookie season… it seems foolish to dismiss him as so many seem to be doing

Yes. I gathered as much initially, which is why I responded. I don’t think Sheehan was dismissive of Jurrjens. I haven’t read anyone really who “dimisses” Jurrjens. Everything I’ve seen seems to imply that a regression from last year shouldn’t be unexpected and is entirely possible, hence it was good that so many other pitchers were brought in…. effectively pushing Jurrjens back in the rotation to minimize the impact of any possible regression. And, in the event he fulfills your projection of 27-2, 0.31 ERA CY Young season, even better. But your rant above concerning just such an assessment of Jurrjens from Sheehan seemed… a little much.

doug h

February 24th, 2009
10:02 pm

congrats DOB for not messing this one up. By the way, are they replacing you with Bill Shanks? Heard that from a “close friend of the family”.

raindawg722

February 24th, 2009
10:04 pm

Interesting JJ discussion. I like him, and I don’t think that’s entirely because I’m a Braves fan. If I recall correctly, it was Tim Hudson who said this morning on 790 that JJ had immediate success because not only does he have the right stuff but he’s got guts. You can tell that just by watching him. I would bet that other teams in the division and fans of other teams know that by now as well.

TennesseePaul

February 24th, 2009
10:06 pm

150 innings? Well lets dice it this way, the last two months of the season, August and September. “The Wall” should be hit. The scout reports are widely available… Jurrjens 56IP, 5.14 ERA. Tim 54IP, 4.17 ERA. Tim still comes out better in his rookie season.

Danga

February 24th, 2009
10:07 pm

doug h…I heard from a close friend of the family that you’re an idiot to come on here and read a blog of someone you obviously don’t trust.

TennesseePaul

February 24th, 2009
10:13 pm

OK, that’s where I’ll leave it. Can’t believe I went back and did that much. Any who, I think Jair will do well this year. Well for this team. Not well enough to merrit the #1 or #2 spot on any a typical team. I’m looking foward to seeing what Kawakami can do and I hope, against all hope, that Vazquez actually does well this year. I just get this feeling of innings-eating-perez for Javy.

Bubdylan

February 24th, 2009
10:14 pm

Forgive a generic and slightly homeric comment, but I’ve been wanting to say this:

I like the team the Braves have assembled and I’m looking forward to the games this year. I think we have a fighter’s chance and that’s really all I ask for.

And if we do happen to scrape into the post season with a front four of Lowe, Hudson, and two of Jurrjens/Hanson/Vazquez, heck I wouldn’t bet against us.

Especially looking forward to either some baserunning from Anderson or some leather-flashing from Schafer, or both. Run-prevent baseball = fun. (Insert KJ pop-up remark here).

Go Braves.

Frank from KS

February 24th, 2009
10:15 pm

Dadgum

Hey buddy….why don’t you just put a sock in it. I’m SO damn sick of you saying we shouldn’t have resigned Glavine (and now signed Anderson).

I will laugh my arse off at you when Tommy has a pretty good season and Anderson hits .280, .285 or so with 20, 25, 30 HR’s and 85, 90, 95 RBI’s or so.

another thing…..for GOD sakes…..the Braves are no longer pursuing Ohman. Shut the heck up about it already. DOB has mentioned this more than once on the last few blogs.

JasonInFL (Formerly ME)

February 24th, 2009
10:16 pm

A guy that I have become friends with is a season ticket holder for Braves spring training games (is there such a thing?) and has invited me to a “meet and greet” game that occurs for said ticket holders on March 28th before the game with the Yankees. DOB, is this true? Do they have such a thing? I am sure this guy isn’t lying, but I had never heard of such things. Of course, I haven’t spent a lot of time near spring training either.

David O'Brien

February 24th, 2009
10:18 pm

The Braves wouldn’t be keeping Hanson on farm because of Super 2, they’d be doing it more because they have proven, healthy starters and don’t want to risk rushing him to the majors when they don’t have to. But it’s safe to say that if he spends a couple of months at Gwinnett, he won’t be a Super Two after the 2011 season…

Fat Boys BBQ: Good, not great. Didn’t like the ribs (too dry), but the beef was very good and pork pretty good. Got the combo dinner, to try it all.

Bubdylan

February 24th, 2009
10:20 pm

Henaege, thanks for the info on the Fibonacci Number, but when I used that one to calculate Jurrjens’ innings I get 7500 IP with a sinker clocking at Mach II. It’d be nice, but…

ShamusThacker

February 24th, 2009
10:20 pm

Hope Andruw has Sigmund Freud helping with his swing.

nolie

February 24th, 2009
10:21 pm

just that JJ put up better rookie numbers then Tim did m CaBraveFan

but he didn’t. the only number that was better was ERA and regardless of KC’s beliefs,that is not the most reliable judge of pitching because it is somewhat subject to outside influences like whether a reliever lets your runners on base score. In every way that reliably measure a pitcher’s performance Tim was better than JJ. Not saying that JJ did not have a nice year, or whether he will “slump” a bit, just that he was not a better rookie than Tim

Danga

February 24th, 2009
10:22 pm

“Run-prevent baseball = fun” -Bubdylan

100% agreed

Random

February 24th, 2009
10:22 pm

KC (8:11 pm): “it is also often the case that though national (not team-specific) observers are more impartial… they don’t pay close attention. They miss things. Often. They often broad-stroke things and work in generalities.”

You are utterly ridiculous.

Here is a little slice of how Baseball Prospectus makes its predictions (no, ChipperFan, Sheehan’ expectation of “some decline” for Jurrjens is not based on SI’s Verducci Effect):

PECOTA compares each player against a database of roughly 20,000 major league batter seasons since World War II. In addition, it also draws upon a database of roughly 15,000 translated minor league seasons (1997-2006) for players that spent most of their previous season in the minor leagues. (When minor league comparables are used, they appear in ALL CAPS). PECOTA considers four broad categories of attributes in determining a hitter’s comparability:

1. Production metrics–such as batting average, isolated power, and unintentional walk rate for hitters, or strikeout rate and groundball rate for pitchers.

2. Usage metrics, including career length and plate appearances or innings pitched.

3. Phenotypic attributes, including handedness, height, weight, career length (for major leaguers), and minor league level (for prospects).

4. Fielding Position (for hitters) or starting/relief role (for pitchers). PECOTA doesn’t require that a comparable hitter play the same defensive position; it is a factor that is evaluated along with many others, and assigned a relatively substantial weight. Consideration is also given to the ’similarity’ between two positions; for example, a shortstop will be compared to a second baseman before he is compared to a left fielder. In most cases, the database is large enough to provide a meaningfully large set of appropriate comparables. When it isn’t, the program is designed to ‘cheat’ by expanding its tolerance for dissimilar players until a reasonable sample size is reached.

“Broad brush strokes“, indeed.

ncscoots

February 24th, 2009
10:22 pm

KC, your “assertion” was that Sheehan was an idiot for saying “any anticipated decline” in Jurrjens. Now, Sheehan IS an idiot, admittedly, and probably the separated-at-birth-brother of Dayn Perry, but nevertheless…

You’ll notice that he didn’t say “Jurrjens will decline” or “Jurrjens is just a utility infielder who can throw” or the like. He implied the possibility of regression exists, and you took umbrage at his temerity in doing so, compounding the felony with the Lincecum comparison. In effect, YOUR implication was that there is very little chance that Jurrjens will step back. Some of us pointed out that, yes, it actually is possible that he might regress, whether probable or not. That’s all. If Brian McCann can hit .273 one year, Jair Jurrjens can have an off-year, too.

Bubdylan

February 24th, 2009
10:23 pm

“Hope Andruw has Sigmund Freud helping with his swing.” -ShamusThacker

Freud and a bat = not a good idea, really. :0

JasonInFL (Formerly ME)

February 24th, 2009
10:24 pm

Here’s another foolish stab at a lineup…hoping that Frenchy has indeed gotten back to his 2007 form:

Anderson
Escobar
Anderson
Chipper
McCann
Francoer
KJ
Kotchman
Pitcher

TnBrian

February 24th, 2009
10:28 pm

I really can’t understand why anyone would be mad at the Glavine and Anderson signings…I really don’t. We’re not the Yankees or Red Sox who buy whatever player they want at any time to help their teams, so you do what 90% of the other teams do which is get players that are within your price range and cross your fingers and pray that the guys you have now will come through. In the Braves case, Francoeur and Kelly are the keys to the offense having a solid year. So, adding Anderson can only help. Glavine is a no brainer for a couple of mill. as a 5th starter. Hanson will have plenty of time to shine in the bigs, so why not let the kid work on his craft even more in the minors? You’re obviously not going to please everybody, but those two signings make no sense at all to whine about.

Tomahawkin

February 24th, 2009
10:32 pm

Aight I’d Figured that there is too much lineup speculation, so I’m gonna take a break frmo that and Throw some Insights on looking ahead to our schedule’s First Month competition…

And Peep This…!

The Braves only play three series of the 1st month against teams that posted above .500 records in the first month. Its imperative that they don’t get buried alive in April because, we could be out of it by May seeing that they have seven series in May aginst teams with a .500 win pct. or better. June doesn’t get any better because the month of June is sick as well (2 series against the Red Sox, plus a series with the Cubs, Brew Crew, The Yanks, and the Phils as well)

Word of Mouf is that Garrett Anderson is a slow Starter offensively…Everyone knows that the braves can Ill-afford to have Anderson’s bat in Creep mode until mid June…

Thoughts…?

Mike in H-Town

February 24th, 2009
10:32 pm

Is the first spring game televised tomorrow?

rainman34

February 24th, 2009
10:33 pm

For those who are putting anderson in the three hole. It makes no sense to put him there. you want a guy with at least one of power, speed or a good obp anderson has noone of these. to me the first five have to be anderson, esco, kelly, chipper, and mac.

Ed

February 24th, 2009
10:34 pm

About the eastern NC barbecue…to be more specific Wilson, NC has the two best barbeque restaurants around…Bill’s & Parkers. Can’t beat’em!

Bubdylan

February 24th, 2009
10:34 pm

TnBrian, I wasn’t thrilled with either of those signings (I’m a Diaz fan – at least for a full platoon, and I had visions of Hanson breaking camp), but like you I don’t see how they can be considered horrible moves. And now that they’re here, I can see them adding stability.

Tomahawkin

February 24th, 2009
10:34 pm

I’m keeping my expectations low for Anderson…If he is the hitter as his resume speaks, then we might be Aight, However, I’m not counting on no more than 65 rbis in 110, especially if Bobby C. brings out the platoon mode in Full Wrex in EFX…

TnBrian

February 24th, 2009
10:37 pm

DOB, is BBQ like your favorite food. No offense, but you talk about it like it’s food from the heavens. A good BBQ place is hard to find, but a place in Nashville was the best I’ve eaten. But it’s still nothing compared to a juicy Wendy’s double bacon cheeseburger. Now that theer is some good ole white trash eatin!

BringBackLonnieSmith

February 24th, 2009
10:43 pm

My stab at a lineup:

1. J Anderson
2. Escobar
3. Chipper
4. G Anderson
5. McCann
6. Kelly
7. Kotchman
8. Frenchy

I like Anderson, and I believe he will do a good job leading off. You could also switch Kotchman into the cleanup spot when G Anderson isn’t playing. Of course, if Frenchy has a good year, as we all hope he does, then he might hit 6th or even cleanup on some days.

TnBrian

February 24th, 2009
10:46 pm

Again, on the signings Wren has made, if Frenchy,KJ and a few of their other homegrown players stink it up, well, than we the fans will have to bite the bullet and realize that they just don’t have it. At least not like the ones from the early 90’s did. So, whatever signings a GM makes is only as good as what’s already on the field and what they have coming up from the minors. I know, we all already know this but it’s easy to get wrapped up in trades and big signings that have or should’ve happend.

Random

February 24th, 2009
10:55 pm

KC (9:35 pm): “it’s not merely my gut feeling or general observation that he “sophomore slump” (as it pertains to starting pitchers) is a myth. I put a fair amount of study into it for a blog piece I wrote at the time. . . . I’m basing my view on facts. . . . my assertion, which was based on a fair amount of research”

I would venture to propose that twenty-five SPs is a slightly smaller (and hugely more unreliable) sample size than that evaluated by BP.

Pepperidge Blogs Remembers:

KC (January 18, 2009 9:55 PM): “I was looking for pitchers who for, the most part, spent their first two full seasons as starters. I compared the rookie and sophomore seasons of the following starters:

Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Avery, Millwood, D.Martinez, John Burkett, J.Marquis, J.Thompson, S.Reynolds, Hampton, R.Ortiz, Pete Smith, Zane Smith, E.Milton, P.Wilson, R.Dempster, C.Reitsma, P.Harnisch, T.Browning, T.Belcher, D. Rasmussen, D.Jackson, G.Swindell

Of the 25 starting pitchers I looked at, 21 of them performed about as well or better in their sophomore season as they did in their rookie season. Only 4 (Smoltz, Marquis, Ortiz, & P.Smith) took any kind of a noticeable step back in their second (full) season of starting.

The “sophomore slump”, as least as it pertains to Major League starting pitchers, is a myth.

As you can see, you did not miss the chance to maliciously and misguidedly slander Smoltz.

Smoltz 1989 — 12-11, 208 IP;

Smoltz 1990 — 14-11, 231.1 IP.

Eric from MO

February 24th, 2009
10:55 pm

I hate when people start talking about playing teams with above .500 records in MARCH! Nobody has played a game. Players have been signed, teams have made trades, and managers have been changed. You dont know who will be over .500. I recall last year ESPN was talking in March about some teams that had no chance. One of them was Tampa. How did they do? Also recall most believed Detriot was going to playoffs and possibly the World Series. How did they do? So lets not be talking about playing so many series against teams with below .500 records in MARCH!!!

John Quest

February 24th, 2009
10:59 pm

Is Obama coaching somewhere? He said, “We will rebuild. We will recover”. Didn’t Ray Knight say that one time with the Reds?

Steve from OH

February 24th, 2009
11:00 pm

KC, others:

I’m not so much worried about the “Verducci” Effect on Jurrjens becuase he didn’t clear the 30 IP mark by too much, and because I feel his mechanics are good enough to compensate for an increase in workload. However, I am more worried about his K/9, BB/9 and K/BB, all of which were more or less exactly average in ‘08. Any regression at all doesn’t bode well in that category. Even though he is a sinkerballer, and has a very good defense behind him, we WILL get unlucky, and bad things will happen occasionally. Mark it down. If his K and BB numbers go the wrong way, then Sheehan will be closer to the truth than you.

I still feel JJ will do better than his PECOTA, but I’m certainly not going to dismiss it, because it does quite well, thank you very much.

richbrave

February 24th, 2009
11:02 pm

JUSTIN VERLANDER – Local product makes good. Look out JAIR, he can be tough.

Eric from MO

February 24th, 2009
11:03 pm

Steve couldnt his K and BB walk numbers go the right way and KC would be right? Could go either way. Dont really know what the arguement is, not like KC said JJ is better than Tim. He actually said he prolly will never be as good as Lincecum.

Chop Chop

February 24th, 2009
11:04 pm

Screw this baseball crap.

It’s time for the Nature Boy, WHOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Bubdylan

February 24th, 2009
11:04 pm

“So, whatever signings a GM makes is only as good as what’s already on the field and what they have coming up from the minors.” -TnBrian

I’m on your side in general, but I can’t quite understand this point. I mean, if KJ and Frenchy are having great years, wouldn’t it make the team still better if the new signings were good ones? And wouldn’t it make the team not as good if the new signings were bad ones?

justdoit

February 24th, 2009
11:05 pm

how awesome would it be if the braves were able to trade vazquez this summer or next winter and have enough money to sign John Lackey ..

a rotation of Lackey Hudson Lowe Hanson JJ

maybe trade kawakami also if he has a good year for a prospect and have about 20M to spend on Lackey.

just talking out of my A§§ again but it would be Awesome..

Dusty Rhodes

February 24th, 2009
11:06 pm

I’m the American Dweam, Wick Fwair. Why don’t you come up here in the wing like a man!

Bubdylan

February 24th, 2009
11:06 pm

Random, you make the fanciest posts.

Steve from OH

February 24th, 2009
11:08 pm

Yeah they very easily could, and I hope they do! But I’m saying that those numbers are probably what PECOTA saw, and it made it’s prediction….

Random

February 24th, 2009
11:08 pm

Bubdylan (10:14 pm): “Especially looking forward to either some baserunning from Anderson or some leather-flashing from Schafer, or both. Run-prevent baseball = fun.”

You might be interested in reading what Sheehan had to say on this subject:

In the absence of a power-hitting left fielder, the Braves would probably be well-served to try and make run prevention their main goal. Their top five—Johnson, Yunel Escobar, Chipper Jones, McCann, and Casey Kotchman—should be good enough to give them a league-average offense. Rather than put Brandon Jones in over his head as the big half of a platoon, what the Braves could do is play Josh Anderson in center field and Gregor Blanco in left, giving them the best defensive outfield in the NL. Anderson can’t hit, and Blanco can’t hit well enough to carry left field, but combined with Jeff Francoeur, the trio would cover broad swaths of ground, enough to make Javier Vazquez a very happy man.

There’s another reason that I think this might work. If you consider the teams that have surprised us recently, it’s all teams that did so by preventing runs with great defense. The 2005 White Sox, the 2006 Tigers, the 2008 Rays… these were all teams that had good pitching staffs backed by excellent glove work, and which rode a terrific performance on balls in play to the World Series. It seems like defense is more affordable than offense, and more likely to be the backbone of a surprise team. When was the last time a team surprised us by bashing its way to the postseason? The 1993 Phillies, perhaps? Maxing out the defense is the best use of the Braves’ current resources; their left fielder and center fielder aren’t going to hit no matter who plays, but they could combine to be outstanding defensively.

Whatever they do, this is going to be a good team and a real contender. The 2008 season was a blip caused by a terrible run of injuries and some awful fortune in close games. Unless both make a reappearance, the Braves will be playing meaningful games deep into September—and possibly October.

Eric from MO

February 24th, 2009
11:10 pm

justdoit why would you spend 20 million on Lackey? 4 years ago he was good but his last 3 seasons not so much. Last year he pitched only 108 innings and the 2 seasons before that he had ERA over 3.6. Not saying he is terrible but his last 3 years havent been that good.

Eric from MO

February 24th, 2009
11:11 pm

Ignore my last post. I looked at his years wrong.

Tomahawkin

February 24th, 2009
11:12 pm

Eric From Mo…

Please Don’t Listen to ESPNY 24-7…John Kruk Also mentioned that The Braves would be Facing the Indians in the 2008 World Series on the BB Tonight episode prior to the Opening ESPNY Sunday Night Game vs the Nationals. Funny how those predictions went, Since then I rarely watch anything On ESPNY anymore, I’d much rather watch the MLB Network…

Chop Chop

February 24th, 2009
11:12 pm

That last link is why Flair will always be the man. He made Ricky Morton look like one baaaaad SOB.

Ric Flair telling it like it is.

Henaege

February 24th, 2009
11:12 pm

Bubdylan – No prob. I just know that Fibonacci numbers occur frequently in nature, so I thought that might have been what you were looking for… but yeah, a mach 2 fastball… cripes…

Anyway, I’ve been reading the blog religiously since the start of the offseason and I just wanted to say that I think Frank Wren has done a great job, despite all the (seeming) disappointments… I feel that in spite of (or because of) said disappointments our Braves will be at a level where they will at least compete for the division title, if not win it straight up. Every move that was made strengthened the team, and I’m especially excited about Garret Anderson. I would have loved to have seen Griffey as a Brave but at the end of the day I’m glad things turned out the way they did.

Mr. O’Brien – I’ll be at next Wednesday’s game vs. the Yankees… can I have your autograph?

Bubdylan

February 24th, 2009
11:13 pm

Random, hey, thanks for the article. Very cool.

Random

February 24th, 2009
11:14 pm

Bubdylan (11:06 pm) — Thanks, bud!

Tomahawkin

February 24th, 2009
11:14 pm

Chop Chop, Right On, I smell what Ur Cookin, Lets get into the top tag teams of all time…?

Chop Chop

February 24th, 2009
11:16 pm

KC

February 24th, 2009
11:18 pm

TennesseePaul: “And, in the event he fulfills your projection of 27-2, 0.31 ERA CY Young season, even better.”

TennPaul, I know you’re just popping off when you make a comment like that… but if you had been paying attention, you would know that my early expectations for Jurrjens are for him to produce something fairly similar to what he did in ‘08.

I’m not going on record with a prediction I’m willing to be held to until opening day… but I recently said that if I had to guess, I’d go with 14 wins and 3.60 ERA from Jurrjens. Won’t surprise me if he pitches better than that, but I’m not prepared to predict that.

But if Jurrjens fulfills your prediction of 7-20, with 5.96 ERA… I WILL be surprised.

John Quest

February 24th, 2009
11:21 pm

Chop Chop, didn’t Ric Flair invent the Chop across the chest move? (more of a slap than chop)

TnBrian

February 24th, 2009
11:21 pm

Steve, is PECOTA a name of a new species of dog, or…?

Stuart

February 24th, 2009
11:22 pm

Random and BudDylan,

I agree with you guys (and Sheehan) about Run Prevention. The braves had to add a bat and G.A. is a good add.

I think the braves can have the best of both worlds IF they can get through the year with and 11 man bullpen. (That is why signing Ohman should still be a priority, if he is still out there.) The last 2 or 3 years the braves have had to carry that 12th pitcher, thus leaving the bench one player short. The braves could really use B. Jones or especially Blanco on that bench for late inning defense. J. Anderson is not the eraser that Andruw was (even at the end) and should not be asked to cover for a possible liabiity in left. Soriano and Gonzo are power/fly ball pitchers. The braves need guys to go get it in the gaps, especially late in games

Steve from OH

February 24th, 2009
11:23 pm

This is going to sound wildly ignorant, but what was the PECOTA on Jurrjens? I’m guessing around 4.30, 190 IP? Sorry, I don’t have a BP subscription…

KC

February 24th, 2009
11:23 pm

Chop Chop, Rick Flair is one of the great entertainers of all time. He could have succeeded in Hollywood with ease, IMO. Flair was great in the ring. No doubt! But he’s the ONLY guy that when he came up to a microphone, I didn’t turn the channel. Every other guy, I thought “shut up and wrestle”. But not with Flair. The greatest figure in the history of wrestling entertainment. Hands down.

I can’t watch the stuff that’s on today. I miss the days of the Flair/Sting rivalry.

spotts

February 24th, 2009
11:25 pm

Sigmund Freud? Andruw needs a priest to exorcise that swing

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