11:09 am February 24, 2009, by David O'Brien
February 24th, 20095:08 pm
Spotts, you do realize that the numbers you gave for Diaz are all as a platoon player for the most part, don’t you?
February 24th, 20095:10 pm
I think Sheehan is off base there, no pun intended. He is selling Anderson short in several ways. The only thing, aside from the marquis appeal, that Griffey has more than Anderson is 3-4 HR. While Dunn or Abreu would have been better options, they are also more expensive. Anderson can still hit for average and is by all accounts a good guy who can be a positive influence.
February 24th, 20095:13 pm
they paid 5 mill for Abreau. dont see much difference, if any between them numbers wise. (vs. GA)
You might consider over a 100 points on career OPS and 112 stolen bases vs. 12 over the last 5 years as “not much difference if any”, but I don’t.
February 24th, 20095:14 pm
A righty’s a righty if you’re a platoon player or not (I’m pretty sure they still throw the same). In 438 career ABs against righties, he’s hit .288 (in 2006 against righties he hit .358 with 151 ABs, and .318 with 170 ABs in 2007)
ease19 (4:23 pm): “Thats was…well…kinda random!…”
Nah, not so much.
A long, long time ago in a blog format far, far away, DOB promoted me to Commander of the “Gotcha Brigade”.
February 24th, 20095:15 pm
dob what is the word on lance niekro ? is he still w the braves thanks
February 24th, 20095:18 pm
Any word on the corresponding move to make room for Garret Anderson on the 40-man roster?
February 24th, 20095:20 pm
I’ve made the trip from Orlando to New Smyrna Beach a few times, only about 75 minutes; good beach, uncrowded, really good restaurant called Norwoods where they make a fine martini. Only drawback is, not a lot of night life in New Smyrna; except for one place that’s a converted motel with a good outdoor beachfront bar, I’ve seen a couple of live bands there, can’t remember the name of that place tho.
J.T.: Lance Niekro will be in minor league camp, which is opening this week.
But, when he had the opportunity last year to hit other than platooning, he did not hit righties as well. That is the difference that could be taken into consideration. But to be honest, you really are asking the wrong people. You need to ask the people who actually make the decision. Many here can give you an answer that may even make sense to you, but really none can speak for those who actually made the decision.
spotts, I think the argument goes that Diaz picked up his healthy numbers versus righties while mostly playing against lefties, and just grabbing the occasional bat vs. RHP. And that the numbers didn’t seem to be on pace to hold up during any extended stretch as a full timer. Whether it’s pitchers learning his weaknesses when he plays more, or Matty’s mental rhythms not being as good in a full time role, I haven’t heard anyone say.
I could be wrong about that, though. Maybe somebody more knowledgable will chime in.
February 24th, 20095:22 pm
The corresponding roster move for Garret Anderson is the Tim Hudson 60-day DL thing. That’s because they still haven’t technically filed the Glavine contract. When they do, they’ll have to make another move. Glavine is to report next week.
Any news on a corresponding move for the 40 man. Dd I just miss it?
Just beat me to it…
February 24th, 20095:25 pm
I’m looking at a lineup of 1.Josh Anderson 2.Yunel Escobar 3. Garret Anderson 4.Chipper 5.Mac 6.Francoeur 7.Kotchman/KJ 8.KJ/Kotchman and you could acutally just exchange Diaz for Anderson when Matt plays or switch Kelly between 3rd and 8th if preferred. LEW
why Anderson third and Chipper 4th, when Anderson has hit 4th mostly and Chipper much prefers third? Personally I wouldn’t do it and hope that they don’t. Chipper’s career numbers in the clean up spot are noticably worse than when batting third, no matter what he says about being willing. I don’t want our best hitter batting below his potential.
I wonder how many DPs Esco would have hit into last year if the speedy Anderson had been the leadoff man? Probaly considerably less than he did.
I just hope they start putting more dirt on the right side of the plate. We’re going to need it this year
February 24th, 20095:27 pm
Here’s some more from Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan — this on the Braves’ pitching:
This is a better team because of the moves the Braves made this winter, acting to stabilize a rotation that didn’t provide innings a year ago and put pressure on an inadequate bullpen. Adding Vazquez and Lowe to replace the unready Jo-Jo Reyes and Charlie Morton is a massive upgrade, more than enough to offset some anticipated decline by last season’s surprises, Jorge Campillo and Jair Jurrjens. Kawakami won’t match Tim Hudson’s 23 starts, but Clay Davenport’s projection was that the 33-year-old Japanese righty would be “better than an average National League pitcher.” The Braves’ rotation should be set to help the team lop as many as 40 runs off of last seasons’ 778 allowed. Sentiment aside, Tom Glavine is done, and should not be allowed anywhere near this rotation. Every start he gets will push the team further from the postseason.
The bullpen is once again high on upside and low on reliability, Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano would be a devastating duo at the back end of games if they were ever both available at the same time. The most innings the two have ever combined to throw in any season, as teammates or otherwise, is 114. They tossed a combined 47 2/3 last year, after throwing 89 in 2007. The Braves need 140 innings from the two of them, as the drop-off from the pair is significant, especially on the left side. The idea is that Vazquez and Lowe can get more games to Manny Acosta, who hands them off to Gonzalez and Soriano, limiting the number of pitchers the Braves have to use in high-leverage situations.
February 24th, 20095:29 pm
Random, yes, I meant “at least against lefties.”
That’s the problem when you (or at least when I) do analysis of lefty-right stuff, I almost always get it wrong in at least one spot, and write exactly the opposite of what I meant. Idiot. Stupid. Senile. Me.
February 24th, 20095:31 pm
“I almost always get it wrong in at least one spot, and write exactly the opposite of what I meant. Idiot. Stupid. Senile. Me.” -DOB
That quote will hit MLBTR out of context in 10…. 9….. 8….. 7 …..
Kieran(Long Island Braves fan)
February 24th, 20095:33 pm
Someone above mentioned the idea of Kotchman in the 2 hole. Interesting idea, and it does lengthen the lineup a bit. I don’t really think its necessery to have your 1st basemen hitting 8th. Also this platoon nonsense is clearly going to come to a head this year and really drive me nuts. Omar Infante in the 4 hole against leftys are we serious? The sad part is we might actually see it. I don’t think its benefical to throw out a completely differant lineup just caz your opponent is throwing a lefty out there, especially if its a weaker one. Check it out:
February 24th, 20095:37 pm
Josh from Columbus is right about Country’s BBQ in Columbus. The Sweet Potato Souffl’e on Friday’s at the Mercury drive location is fantastic, best of the locations in Columbus. The Q ain’t bad either.
As for Anderson joining the Braves, I am very excited. I realize he is not the same player he was in the early 2000s, but he is still a class act and a quality bat in the outfield. I am looking for him to have an Edgar Renteria 2007 type year this year, both with the bat and in the clubhouse. Quiet leadership is what we need, and I believe we got the right man.
February 24th, 20095:38 pm
Can someone tell me what kind of coach Coach is? Strange ideas about baseball, but he seems to have the “confidence” of a MLB GM. I don’t mean to be disrespectful. I am just asking. PTBNL
I think you’re being taken for a ride dude. I would be willing to bet that coach is not any kind of coach, certainly not a baseball one. He is constantly spouting overblown garbage in an overbearing manner.As for the GM thing, at least some of what he posts is copied from other sites and he passes it off as his own when I have seen the exact same thing even wording elsewhere. Not many GMs out there in Dakota are there? IMO, the biggest phony on the board.
February 24th, 20095:39 pm
Apparently, Boyer cut his finger on apple slicer.
February 24th, 20095:42 pm
Boyer, I admire the diet plan, but two words, man: Salad Shooter.
February 24th, 20095:43 pm
If you’re not in the water because of cold weather, it’s safer. A few notes from Forbes on FL beaches:
“Last year (2007), New Smyrna Beach in Volusia, Fla., was home to the most shark attacks, with 17 total. However, George Burgess, director of the ISAF, is reluctant to even call these incidents “attacks.” Most of the time, the Floridian species of sharks–blacktips, blacknoses or sharknoses–are smaller than six feet in length and are reacting to movement rather than trying to eat. If a person doesn’t struggle once bitten, the shark will likely move away once it realizes that it hasn’t caught its ideal prey.”
“Lightning is another threat often overlooked. At the beach, notes Leatherman, humans are the highest point, which means that they are the target for lightning during storms. Several beaches, such as New Smyrna and Clearwater in Florida–dubbed the Lightning Capital of the U.S. by the National Weather Service–have had to evacuate and then close for days because of the threat.”
“Secondly, scan the beach before you go in the water to avoid the rip current, which can be especially dangerous on beaches, including Merritt Island and Cocoa in Brevard County, Fla. Head inside if there’s a storm brewing.”
February 24th, 20095:44 pm
he was reaching for a can opener for his can of apples and caught it on an apple slicer
Who slices their apples anyway? Eat them like a real man.. off the core.
February 24th, 20095:54 pm
bub you are so hillarious
February 24th, 20095:57 pm
Anybody know how Frenchy has been looking in BP (SoDak Brave 4:38)
Haven’t you heard? Frenchy never “looks”, not even in batting practice.
February 24th, 20095:58 pm
I missed it due to work. Is there a video clip of the press conference?
February 24th, 20096:00 pm
“bub you are so hillarious” -dylan
February 24th, 20096:03 pm
wow here we go again with injuries…next its going to be chipper rolling off his bed and having a concussion.
February 24th, 20096:04 pm
Wasn’t Joe Sheehan the guy who said Escobar was no more than a utility infielder? Or am I mistaken?
Where is Martin Prado, the best hitter of the last half o fthe season for the Braves last year, going to lay and bat?
Why not trade KJ and install Prado as the every day secomnd baseman. Thatv would provide another rightie bat as well.
February 24th, 20096:05 pm
Oh, Anders, you stole.
February 24th, 20096:06 pm
the thoughts so far are either Prado or Lerew(I think thats the right one)
really? well whoever is thinking Prado needs a brain transplant
the WBC is so pointless..the USA team could be so much better if we had all our stars in it…i think they need to change the date of the WBC.
February 24th, 20096:07 pm
Apple slicer? Lame. This past weekend I cut the tip off of my finger using a butcher knife. Got no time for apple slicers. Luckily the doctors were able to sew it back on. I have to keep it straight, elevated, clean and dry. I’ve been fitted with both a Dirtbags and Braves foam finger. Team spirit is high in my household.
DOB – Awaiting your 6:14 reporting on the CF/platoon competition that isn’t.
February 24th, 20096:11 pm
oh yea i am serious. u should have your own blog!!!! or maybe a stand up comedy act, although you would have a hard time using those cute smileys
February 24th, 20096:12 pm
Bubdylan – I didn’t see your response, which is unusual because yours are posts I usually take the time to read when scanning.
That said, I don’t think we said the same thing anyway – you know mine being funny and all and yours being… well yours.
February 24th, 20096:15 pm
dylan, I ain’t afraid of emoticons and LOL’s. 100% confident in my masculinity … sweetie.
February 24th, 20096:16 pm
Anders, well, alright. Yours was clearer, I’ll give you that.
February 24th, 20096:18 pm
Bubdylan – Let me give you a hand. I’ll get Dylan to chase me around the block for a while.
Hey Dylan! – yeah you. The Braves suck. The Mets are gonna mop them up all season. Woooaah. Here he comes. See you guys later……..
you’d have to be. LOL is so 1998
February 24th, 20096:19 pm
hey mets. how bout u make the playoffs. k bye
Bubdylan, I think you need a beer
February 24th, 20096:24 pm
ease19, nah, I don’t drink this early in the evening. Why, you got one?
February 24th, 20096:26 pm
come on bub, how bout a cosmo or an applitini
February 24th, 20096:33 pm
Dylan, my friend, Raul Mondesi was a head case who completely lost his swing, as well as his desire to play winning baseball.
“(In ‘08,) Anderson hit .337 over his final 69 games beginning July 1, posting 49 RBIs and an .871 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) in that stretch.”
Please, get a box of crayons and a clean sheet of drawing paper and draw me a picture of how you can equate the mercurial flakiness of Mondesi with the consistent professionalism of Anderson.
February 24th, 20096:34 pm
Telling Glavine he didn’t make the team would also take care of a roster move….just saying.
Rock on……..I am sure a lot of the Braves would be fine with that.
February 24th, 20096:38 pm
Hey, I think AinC is one of the most underrated bands, especially from the last 20 years. Love their stuff. It’s just that that beat and rhythm from their first single lends itself remarkably well to, well, other purposes, you know?
“Lawyers, Guns and Money” is my ringtone. Probably a better voicemail message, though.
February 24th, 20096:39 pm
Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan: “more than enough to offset some anticipated decline by last season’s surprises, Jorge Campillo and Jair Jurrjens.
WTF?! WHAT anticipated decline. Who’s anticipating that?? Not anyone in the Braves clubhouse.
Where is the broad dismissal of Jair Jurrjens coming from?!
Jurrjens just posted a better rookie effort than those of Tim Lincecum or Cole Hamels. And why would anyone conclude that it was fool’s gold???
Jurrjens has 4 quality pitches, including a fastball he can run up into the mid-90’s, and an excellent changeup. He has excellent command (named best control pitcher in Tigers organization a few years ago by Baseball America). And everyone raves about his intelligence, maturity, and his grasp of the art of pitching.
I’ll answer my own question. They conclude that it was fool’s gold… because they weren’t paying attention. That’s the only reasonable explanation.
February 24th, 20096:40 pm
anyone want to bet that the braves have a quick trigger on Francouer this year with all the talented outfielders we have in the system that are blocked. I can see Francouer in AAA if he doesn’t produce from the get go. He has one more option I think maybe two.
Rock on…..and Hanson is going to start the year in AAA. Yeah Right!!
February 24th, 20096:41 pm
DOB, if there’s any way to configure this thing to hold more posts per page, I think most everyone here would GREATLY prefer that. This 10 pages (or more) for every blog kind of sucks.
February 24th, 20096:43 pm
Dadgum, I think Francoeur is going to be just fine. I really do. But if he doesn’t produce… I don’t see him in Gwinnett. I see him in Kansas City. If a full off-season and a fresh start doesn’t do it, it’s going to be time for a change of scenery.
February 24th, 20096:52 pm
Now, it just makes me think, “Why were they interested in Griffey over Anderson to begin with?”
You see, a lot of pitchers who are successful in their first full season are not quite so successful in their second seasons. That’s partly because their bodies have to get used to pitching a major league workload. Also, the book is out on them. It’s up to those second-year pitcher to make the necessary adjustments. Most second-year pitchers struggle to make those adjustments, so even if a pitcher is mature and polished beyond his years, that pitcher still has to react to the opposition’s gameplan and successfully implement his adjustments.
I don’t know why you get so bent out of shape about stuff like that. Who gives a damn if someone questions the ability of a Braves player? At least Baseball Prospectus comes at things with a very analytical approach based on years and years of stats and percentages. They are telling you the most likely thing to expect. If you’re too much of a homer to listen, that’s fine. Just know that they aren’t knocking Jair.
February 24th, 20096:53 pm
“those second-year pitcher”…I got all French-Canadian there for a second
KC, some think Jurrjens will fall off because of the heavy increase of innings from ‘07 to ‘08. There’s a study about it. He fits the pattern of… crap, it’s named after some dude. Somebody help me. Verducci?
Folks, the truth is Prado is a better everyday 2nd baseman than Kelly. Given the chance that is. No way the Braves trade Prado. He can play 1st, 2nd, 3rd, with SS a slim possibility. Very, very, good bat. The KJ to LF isn’t going to happen so I am not going to beat the blog up about putting Prado at 2nd. I am just saying I would have been fine with KJ out in lF and Prado at 2nd. So would a helluva lot of other people.
Again, in my opinion, I can’t see the Braves being a better team with Anderson as our everyday LF…ditto Griffey had that been the case. We have too much youthful talent not to have one of them in LF. BIG MISTAKE by Wren. I am right until proven wrong. Let the games begin.
Rock on…..somebody mentioned the group Bloodkin a while back. Saw them with teh DBT’s a few weeks ago. OK…not great….just OK but better than I expected. Didn’t see any hook.
February 24th, 20096:54 pm
This page navigation stinks. Surely this isn’t the final solution- and why did it take five days to pull THIS off? Here’s an idea- if the brilliant tech staff at the ajc can’t pull off a new format, then lets go back to the one that worked until some technological breakthrough can be made.
I just can’t believe this is the only way to pull this off. Smells like laziness if you ask me.
DOB is like Tony Gwynn- a great player on a crummy team.
18 Wheels of Love
February 24th, 20096:56 pm
I’m concerned with Frenchy, This year will tell a lot as to how he projects for the rest of his career in my opinion. Right now, I compare his young career to that of Ron Kittle, the ‘83 ROY. Take a look at Kittles stats and I could see Frenchy going down that path. They are similar hitters…streaky power with a lot of K’s. I hope this chart isn’t all messed up but I am sure it will be…sorry in advance.
Yr Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR GS RBI BB IBB SO SH SF HBP GIDP AVG OBP SLG
1982 White Sox 20 29 3 7 2 0 1 0 7 3 0 12 0 0 0 0 .241 .313 .414
1983 White Sox 145 520 75 132 19 3 35 0 100 39 8 150 0 3 8 10 .254 .314 .504
1984 White Sox 139 466 67 100 15 0 32 0 74 49 5 137 0 4 6 7 .215 .295 .453
1985 White Sox 116 379 51 87 12 0 26 0 58 31 1 92 0 2 5 12 .230 .295 .467
1986 White Sox 86 296 34 63 11 0 17 0 48 28 0 87 0 6 3 10 .213 .282 .422
1986 Yankees 30 80 8 19 2 0 4 0 12 7 1 23 0 2 0 0 .238 .292 .413
1987 Yankees 59 159 21 44 5 0 12 0 28 10 1 36 0 3 1 4 .277 .318 .535
1988 Indians 75 225 31 58 8 0 18 0 43 16 1 65 0 5 8 0 .258 .323 .533
1989 White Sox 51 169 26 51 10 0 11 0 37 22 1 42 0 4 1 2 .302 .378 .556
1990 White Sox 83 277 29 68 14 0 16 0 43 24 2 77 0 1 3 3 .245 .311 .469
1990 Orioles 22 61 4 10 2 0 2 0 3 2 0 14 0 0 1 3 .164 .203 .295
1991 White Sox 17 47 7 9 0 0 2 0 7 5 0 9 0 1 2 2 .191 .291 .319
Career G AB R H 2B 3B HR GS RBI BB IBB SO SH SF HBP GIDP AVG OBP SLG
10 Years 843 2,708 356 648 100 3 176 0 460 236 20 744 0 31 38 53 .239 .306 .47
February 24th, 20096:57 pm
can someone remind me the reason that the format had to be changed anyway?
DOB (5:29 pm) — you and me both.
Bub, “Its 5′oclock somewhere in the world”. Nope, I TRY not to drink during the week…makes for an awful morning at work.
I think this dylan character is off of 90210…
February 24th, 20097:02 pm
Sorry if i am rehashing a question that has already been answered, but will there be any radio coverage of the ST game tomorrow? And if so will it be network or local only. Thanks
February 24th, 20097:06 pm
Hanson will start at Gwinnett. Not because he is not good enough, but mainly because it will give the Braves another year of him pitching on the cheap. They have a serviceable rotation now and so no need to waste a whole year’s big money (which he will be getting if he is as good as everyone says) in 2013, but of course by then he might have signed a contract for less money that buys out his arb years, as McCann did, even then it will be less money than if he starts in Atlanta from the get-go.
It makes good business sense to let him mature a little more in AAA, he is there as cover as soon as someone gets injured (that is a fatalistic phrasing born of last years tribulations for our pitching staff).
February 24th, 20097:07 pm
bubdylan jair only pitched about 12 more innings than he was supposed to, so lets hope the verducci effect bypasses him this year.
also, this evaluation IS coming from the place that labeled escobar a utility infielder, and i doubt that they would claim that thier predicitons are always right. i think that jair will have a year very similar tolast year, perhaps with a few minor set backs (missed starts). but im convinced that jurjens is going to be a good one.
February 24th, 20097:10 pm
KC: Jurrjens just posted a better rookie effort than those of Tim Lincecum or Cole Hamels. And why would anyone conclude that it was fool’s gold???
I don’t recall anyone claiming Jurrjens to be “fools gold”. Stating that one would expect a decline from Jair is not saying Jair is no good, or counting on him is “fools gold”. But nice straw man.
Where does this “better rookie season” talk come from? The ERA? Tim: 4.00, Jair: 3.68 and that’s it.
What about the WHIP? Tim: 1.28, Jair: 1.37
What about the K/BB? Tim: 65/150, Jair: 70/139
What about the K/IP? Tim: 150/146, Jair: 139/188
And then there is the minor league track record for which to base expectations. Tim dominated. Jair did not.
Tim is the better pitcher, hands down. Jair is good, but you shouldn’t build yourself up into thinking he can be as good as or better than Tim because his ERA was lower in his first full rookie season. All his other stats weren’t as good as Tim’s. Jair will not be winning the Cy Young this year. He may just have a low to mid 4 ERA as he did in his second half last year (4.66) when he had been scouted by the opponents. (and for comparison, Tim had a rookie second half better than his first half, ie he got better even after more teams had seen him).
And, as they were developing, Tim was expected to be an ace. Jair a mid-rotation starter. Jair could be good this year. I don’t expect him to utterly stink. But I won’t be surprised if he struggles some.
February 24th, 20097:11 pm
Dadgum “I am right until proven wrong”
You are? Well why aren’t you wrong until proven right? Because, currently (as in, right now) I think you are wrong. But can you prove you are right? (Let me answer that for you: No you can’t). Boom. Outta here.
February 24th, 20097:13 pm
MY Eailer point on Anderson was why diddnt they work out with G.A. after the 3 mill settlement. you know pay G.A. the 5 mill. I feel bad for him, like i do the smoltz deal. Besides Angels really dont need Abreau. there gonna have to trade some body. Also like to Marte in AAA. with Braves, maybe he could still replace Chipper in a couple of years if he gets it together.
February 24th, 20097:16 pm
Interested Observer (6:04 pm): “Wasn’t Joe Sheehan the guy who said Escobar was no more than a utility infielder? Or am I mistaken?”
No mistake — good memory.
Joe Sheehan (February 8, 2008): <strongWinter grade: C- Trading away Renteria shows a faith in Yunel Escobar that is likely misplaced. However, the presence of Brent Lillibridge should save them. Losing Jones was inevitable, although the contract he signed may turn out to be a bargain. They have no center fielder, despite trading for two nominal ones over the winter. One move to make: Escobar is a utility infielder who happened to have a peak season for batting average. The Braves can’t get Renteria back, but they can minimize the damage by moving quickly past Escobar to Lillibrdge. The 24-year-old has good secondary skills and a plus glove at shortstop; rumors that he might be moved to center field persist, but those have more to do with the Braves’ fascination with Escobar than with Lillibridge’s skills.
We can see several howlers here.
February 24th, 20097:20 pm
that may turn out to be Wren’s best trade ever,getting Jair and Gorkys for an old shortstop who was terrible for the tigers.
February 24th, 20097:21 pm
Chop Chop, yeah… I get the whole “sophomore slump” argument, but it doesn’t hold water. I did quite a bit of research on the so called sophomore slump for a blog piece I put together a while back, and found that as it pertains to MLB starting pitchers, it’s a myth. After all the numbers I looked at, I am 100% convinced of that.
That’s not to say that staring pitchers don’t ever struggle in their second full season, but it’s not a common enough occurrence to deserve it’s own pithy title. The majority of the time, Major League pitchers that have a strong rookie season, follow it up with an equal or better sophomore season.
To suggest that Jurrjens should be expected to take a step back simply because it’s his second full season… is an argument that doesn’t hold up to the vast majority of precedent.
Bubdylan, I know the argument about Jurrjens’ innings jump as well. I’m more comfortable with this argument than the “sophomore slump” theory… but I’m not sold on this point of view either.
Jurrjens pitched 140+ innings several times at the minor league level. And nearly EVERY pitcher in baseball has a year, usually early in their ML career, where they have to make a 40 (or more) inning jump in their workload. There is nothing at all unusual about that.
Also, given that Jurrjens is a ground-ball, pitch-to-contact pitcher… his pitcher-per-inning ratio probably isn’t as high as it is with a lot of other guys.
Gil In Mechanicsville
February 24th, 20097:26 pm
Sophomore slums only occurs when you have a manager like Joe Gerraldi or Dusty Baker who don’t know how to protect a young pitcher’s arm.
Sheehan is just telling you what is most likely. His argument holds up quite well.
(Note: If Sheehan said this about a young guy on another team, you would not blink. That’s the difference here. You have something invested in Jurrjens; Sheehan doesn’t. “Cold” impartiality isn’t always the most endearing quality, but it’s not a bad quality to have when dealing with probabilities.)
and slumps too…
February 24th, 20097:28 pm
Braves will be world series champs in a couple years..Hanson,Jurrjens,Hudson,Lowe,Kawakami
February 24th, 20097:29 pm
The only thing, aside from the marquis appeal, that Griffey has more than Anderson is 3-4 HR. GSU
and 50 points of OBP which is worth a lot more than 3 homers. nothing at all special about Anderson anymore, but he’s ok at the price
February 24th, 20097:31 pm
Sheehan also seems to be really infatuated with Manny Acosta as a setup man, and completely dismisses Moylan. I’m not saying it couldn’t work out that way, but Manny better cut way down on both HR and BB if he expects to have a role in the late innings. Frankly, he’d have a tough time making the 25-man over Bennett, Boyer, and Carlyle if (God forbid) I was in charge.
That’s the thing with many (not all) of these national writers. Honestly, I bet there are a couple dozen bloggers on this site that could run circles around Sheehan when it comes to knowing the Braves’ personnel.
February 24th, 20097:39 pm
For you old school rasslin’ fans, I’m hearing that possibly a Macho Man Randy Savage DVD set is in the works. How reliable? I am not sure. I hope it is true though.
February 24th, 20097:54 pm
Andrew: Getting Casey and Marek for Tex wasn’t bad either /or/ getting Vasquez and Logan!
February 24th, 20098:02 pm
TennPaul, I’m not trying to argue that Jurrjens is as good as Lincecum, or that he will ever be as good… just that his rookie season was better than those of Hamels and Lincecum, and that with that in mind, he deserves a bit more respect than he’s getting.
First of all, yes Paul, I am one of those small-minded baseball observers that believes ERA in fact IS the most important statistic for a starting pitcher. Not the ONLY stat that matters, but the most important. I also happen to think that 13 wins for a rookie on a team that lost 90 games is pretty damned impressive.
And if you dig a little deeper, you’ll see that Jurrjens’ rookie effort was even more impressive than it appears when you look at the season totals.
Anytime a rookie pitcher starts the season in the big leagues, there’s going to be a point late in the season when he hits “the wall”. Prior to pitching 188 innings last year, Jurrjens’ highest inning total in professional baseball was 142. With that in mind, take a look at what he did before fatigue set in.
After 151 innings pitched, 24 starts into the season (the same number of starts Lincecum made in his rookie season) Jurrjens had an ERA of 3.15.
As for Jurrjens not “dominating”… he is not a strikeout pitcher. Jurrjens prefers to pitch to contact. If K’s/9 is your measure of a pitcher, then Javier Vasquez is better than Brandon Webb, Tim Hudson, and well… you get the point.
Again, after 151 innings (just past the point at which he’s accustom to calling it a season), he had a 3.15 ERA. Given his stuff, his control, and his approach… I’m betting money that he’s the real deal. And if were expected to look for better things from Cole Hamels in his sophomore season… then in my humble opinion, we should expect the same from Jurrjens. I’ll bet money that he doesn’t take the step back so many are prediction. Seriously… anyone, let me know if you’re interested in that wager.
February 24th, 20098:03 pm
I don’t think anyone was saying JJ is better then Tim Lincecum, just that JJ put up better rookie numbers then Tim did; clearly, right now, Lincecum is a better pitcher…and I do think there will be some “sophomore slump” drop off with JJ (I think it is inevitable with almost everyone), but nothing to be concerned with- I think he is too good for that…
February 24th, 20098:08 pm
Blog-favorite Andruw Jones hit a homerun and an RBI-double in the Ranger’s intrasquad game today.
Eric from MO
February 24th, 20098:10 pm
KC Im a huge Jurrijens fan but there is one thing that may make him worse than Lincecum and Hamals and that would be his innings. He went up 40 innings last year. Im afraid he may be another Mark Prior. The biggest reason I was so happy to get Lowe and Vazquez. To take innings from Jurrijens.
While I think acquiring GA was a sound move, there are some hurdles to overcome. GA was born and raised in LA and had played for the Angles since 1994, his only MLB team. He is coming from a playoff team to one who is a consensus .500 middle of the pack team, though with some potential to be better. His new team is a couple of thousand miles from his old team, friends and home. He also made $12,000,000 last year to this years $2,500,000.
I am here hoping GA is professional enough to overcome all these things. But just keep them in mind. There was this Jones fellow who had a lot of those hurdles to overcome and well, you know how he handled it.
February 24th, 20098:11 pm
Chop Chop: “Sheehan is just telling you what is most likely. His argument holds up quite well.”
No, it doesn’t.
If Sheehan were basing his argument on the so-called Sophomore Slump, which has been disproved many times over by sabermetricians, then it’d be super easy to refute. What he is in fact basing it on is the so-called Verducci Effect, which is defined as a Major League pitcher 25 or under who has just finished a season with 30+ more IP than his prior year. Now, I’m no analyst, so I can’t argue with Tom Verducci. But what I can do is point a couple of facts.
1. The Verducci Effect isn’t airtight. Dwight Gooden, Justin Verlander and others have defied it.
2. Jurrjens wasn’t abused like many of the guys whose sophomore seasons were ruined by the Verducci Effect. He pitched 45 more innings in 2008 than in 2007. In contrast, Verducci Effect Poster boys Ian Kennedy (+61 IP), Jared Weaver (+56 IP), and Fausto Carmona (+56.1 IP) all got stretched even further.
3. As KC pointed out above, Jurrjens had pitched over 140 innings for 3 straight years in the minors (counting his 30 IP in his September 2007 call-up to the Tigers). So he’s not really like a lot of these guys, who had never pitched more than 77 (Weaver) or had only pitched 140 once (Anibal Sanchez, Carmona, Hughes, Kennedy).
Just because KC is a homer, doesn’t mean he’s not correct.
In a similar fashion, just because you’re paranoid, doesn’t mean I’m not out to get you.
Chop Chop, like any avid fan of a team, my first inclination is to hyper-focus on the positives. I understand your point that Sheehan isn’t doing this, and therefor may be more “objective”. However, it is also often the case that though national (not team-specific) observers are more impartial… they don’t pay close attention. They miss things. Often. They often broad-stroke things and work in generalities.
I’m not a big betting man, but I enjoy a friendly wager from time to time. And before ever bet anything more than a 6-pack, I try to disconnect emotionally and look at the facts. I believe I have done so with Jurrjens, and I have come to the conclusion that he is FAR more likely to take a step forward this year than to take a step back.
In the sense that I’m an avid Braves fan, I also have something “invested” in Escobar… but I’m not among those predicting that he’s going to be a star. I’m not entirely sold on the notion that he’s ever going to be much more than what he is. Nor am I predicting that Boyer is the Braves’ closer of the future, or that Morton is ever going to pan out.
I am capable of mustering a little objectivity. My belief in Jurrjens has far more to do with having watched him pitch for six months than it has to do with what uniform he wears. And again… I’m open to a wager.
February 24th, 20098:12 pm
CaBravesfan, just to point out, there really isnt a sophemore slump. At least not with most pitchers. If you take rookie pitchers and 2nd year pitchers the 2nd year pitchers have better numbers.
February 24th, 20098:13 pm
Eric from MO, if you go to thebaseballcube.com, and look up the innings jumps made by most successful pitchers at some point in their careers… I think that will alleviate some of your concern over Jurrjen’s work load last year.
February 24th, 20098:14 pm
I think personally this could very well be a turnaround year overall for the team from an overall standpoint. I think GA will be fine with Braves this year. I’m going into the season cautiously optimistic.
February 24th, 20098:15 pm
SeaAtl, who was it that Jones hit off of? Was it someone going to be bagging groceries in a few weeks.
cvbraves,those may turn out to be good trades but not like getting a number 1 or 2 pitcher who is 22 for renteria.
February 24th, 20098:17 pm
Here’s hoping that Andruw has a fine year with the Rangers and resumes his Hall of Fame career.
Eric from KC-
Maybe that is not the right discription- maybe it is more along the lines of other teams being more fimiliar with JJ’s stuff- but his numbers may appear not quite as good- ERA may be a little higher, walks may be a little higher, etc. but like I said- I don’t think it will be anything that will cause concern- I think JJ is just too good and his mental approach is too solid for things like that to be an issue.
does anyone think Andruw will make the rangers team and start this year?
We talk baseball, other sports, music, movies, BBQ and whatever (except politics or religion)
Atlanta Braves RSS feed
Previous entries »
Send a feedback technical issue
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution